Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I was one of those who thought linear tv would be dead in 10 years but having researched and digging around i will gladly retract my thoughts, the UK internet infrastructure at the moment i feel wouldn't handle the demond.
However i still think linear tv will be reduced in channels as on demand grows.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Most of the production companies have a vested interest in linear TV anyway don't they considering most are owned by broadcasters or large media companies.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Spot on Harry , Amazon and Netflix already have deals with the likes of the BBC , ITV , C4 etc however the content still airs first on linear.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Exactly.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Jeez that hurt my eyes Harry, no more red please!!!!!!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

didnt want to continue in the coming soon but have seen this which might light the torch paper of views

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32733044

Broadcaster ITV has posted positive results for the start of the year, beating expectations.

The broadcaster, which airs popular drama Downton Abbey, said it had seen 14% growth in net revenue for the three months ending March 2015.

Total revenue was £665m, up from £585m during the same period last year.

Broadcast and online revenue was also up by 10%, to £530m, along with the studios division, which saw revenue increase by 17%.

Adam Crozier, ITV chief executive, said: "We've had a strong start to the year with further growth across all parts of the business

so fall in advertising might be premature to say the least

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

All good, positive news. However, take a look at the link below. Audience figures are down, and although that may be for the reasons given in this article, don't forget that this thread is about the long term trend rather than the present.

http://advanced-television.com/2015/...audience-down/

ITV ad revenues up, audience down

Commercial broadcaster ITV has posted 14 per cent growth in net revenue for the three months ending March 2015. Total revenue was £665 million, up from £585 million during the same period last year.

Broadcast and online revenue was also up by 10 per cent, to £530 million, along with the studios division, which saw revenue increase by 17 per cent.

The ITV network suffered a 3 per cent drop in its audience share and a 6 per cent drop on its main channel after a string of factual and entertainment flops. The broadcaster faces a tough challenge to turn around its declining audiences as it loses its rights to Champions League football at the beginning of next season, and with its most popular drama, Downton Abbey, coming to an end after the next series.

Adam Crozier, ITV chief executive, commented: “We’ve had a strong start to the year with further growth across all parts of the business. In April we completed the acquisition of Talpa Media, the creator of entertainment formats including The Voice, The Voice Kids, Utopia and Dating in the Dark, which marked an important step forward in our strategy of building a world-class production and distribution business.”

ITV’s results came out as staff staged a 24-hour strike to coincide with the company’s annual meeting. Unions have rejected a 2 per cent pay rise, saying they should get a higher increase in view of the TV company’s profits.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Viewers may be down, but poor shows are poor shows OB. They are not going to be any better if they are shown on a on demand/streaming service.

If this whole argument of yours is about the long term, why did you highlight the recent Sky Movies on demand quote in another thread?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Because, as I see it, this is the beginning of the end for linear TV. The decline in audience share for ITV might be due to them being of poorer quality, or maybe it isn't that at all.

Time, I guess, will tell.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Yes, I get that. But, like Anypermittedroutes post, you are using events in the present to base your thoughts of what might happen in the future too. So why challenge anypermittedroute for doing the same as you?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

If the statistic under consideration is audience share, the that is a relative measure which shows how ITV is performing against other linear channels. It does not tell us anything about the total audience size for linear TV at any given time.

As you have frequently done in this thread, you are drawing conclusions that are not warranted by the information you are quoting.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

it's just a discussion, Harry. :)

---------- Post added at 22:21 ---------- Previous post was at 22:15 ----------

On that point, I hadn't drawn a conclusion and specifically stated that the reduction in audience share may have been for the reasons given in the article.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

This article focuses on the BBC licence fee, but interestingly it draws the conclusion that streaming subscribers are becoming more familiar with programming without interruption, and this is slowing advertising sales growth for broadcasters.

It is this slowdown in advertising sales that will kill off most broadcast channels eventually because this is what they rely on for revenue.

It remains to be seen whether the growth of on demand services will allow these channels to make an equivalent profit out of advertising but I suspect that there will be a viewer reaction to being forced to watch advertisements that they can avoid by other means.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...m-Netflix.html


BBC licence fee under 'unprecedented pressure' from Netflix

Extracts

The fast growth of streaming services and pay-TV are "challenging the very premise of mandatory fees", according to a study by PwC

Internet television services such as Netflix and Amazon are “challenging the very premise of mandatory fees” for the BBC and other public broadcasters, according to a major study of the global media sector.

The rise of streaming is altering the landscape of the television industry, the report by PwC said, contributing to “unprecedented pressure” on “the notion of the public licence fee”.

Viewer appetites, patterns of spending in advertising and the competitive responses of traditional pay-TV operators are changing as the internet becomes a more significant delivery system for television, the analysts added.

The economics of television are already shifting in ways that “are challenging the very premise of mandatory fees for traditional broadcasting”, PwC said.

For instance, global voluntary subscription revenues are forecast to grow by 3.5pc per year up to 2019, compared with only 0.7pc for licence fees.

Over the same period in the UK, the overall proportion of households with some form of voluntary subscription television, whether via cable, satellite or over the internet from a telecoms provider such as BT, is forecast to increase from 57pc to more than 62pc.

That predicted growth does not include the added impact of streaming services that are not necessarily bundled with an internet access subscription, such as Netflix and Amazon. Total revenues for such "over-the-top" services are expected to more than double from £216m last year to £497m in 2019. Those streaming services include Sky’s Now TV, as well as those on offer from US technology companies.

Across the television industry, the audience appetite for watching programmes on demand, multiple episodes at a time, is growing, according to the PwC research.

It said: “The public is demanding high-quality original programming, available in a flexible, on-demand manner across numerous devices to satisfy the growing phenomenon of 'binge viewing', and 'over-the-top' services offer the best outlet for this type of consumption.”
The findings are likely to be seized on by critics of the BBC as it prepares to renegotiate the licence fee with the Government. Some have called for it to move towards voluntary subscription funding.

As well as a potentially reduced role in entertainment for public television providers such as the BBC, the PwC research also highlighted the impact streaming services could have on broadcast advertising. Netflix does not carry advertising, for example, and its subscribers are becoming more familiar with programming without interruption, slowing advertising sales growth for broadcasters.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

well at the moment they dont carry adverts but who knows in the future they might, in fact they are testing advertising their own programs which can easily be converted to carry adverts.

also ITV announced not so long ago that advertising revenue was UP

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

There is no doubt about it that at the moment, there is plenty of money to be made out of advertising on broadcast channels.

My point is that there will be a sharp reversal at some point in the near future when people start to appreciate the benefits of streaming in particular.

The broadcast channels must surely be planning for this eventuality. The question is, how will they deal with it?

As more and more programmes are taken up by streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon, broadcasters will be relying more and more on their own home grown material and cheap lifestyle programmes. That will accelerate their decline.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Then they will simply shift the advertising onto the VOD broadcasting like you see in 4od and the way channel 4 relaunched their whole 4od world and experience, no brainer, its big money and consumer still has the luxury of choosing what and when to watch, but still needs to be paid for and done by non passable adverts.

More of these programmes being competed for exclusitivities, or being originally made its need to be paid for. money will come direct from raising subscription, merchandise or advertisement, there is no other stream (i discounted goverment and very rich nice person)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Seriously OB, where do you think businesses will advertize in future? You have posted on here that newspapers are on there way out in the future too, so where are companies going to advertize? Just on the internet and radio? Or do you think Tesco will not want the TV watching audiences of the future to know their beans are cheaper than Sainsburys in the future.

Adverts will just shift to VOD and we will be forced to sit through them, mainly because people don't realize how well things work at the minute and how lucky we are to have a choice to skip adverts. As well watch ad free OTT services.

Streaming companies most likely want people to transfer their viewing to online so they can charge the businesses more money by forcing people to watch adverts they can currently skip through.

---------- Post added at 14:26 ---------- Previous post was at 14:25 ----------

Yup, that is indeed the only outcome of streaming.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Actually, Netflix are currently experimenting with advertising on their own programmes. It's not to much of a stretch of the imagination to think they might look at extending that to other programmes (assuming licences allow them to). It's also not too much of a stretch to imagine they may not allow skipping. So, the future you (and the article) appear to be speculating about may not include programming without interruption..

You are, of course, assuming that the likes of ITV cannot or will not compete with Netflix et al. I'd be surprised if they don't.

This is where I feel the article is wrong. It's comparing Apples and Oranges. Most UK households have a licence. Those that don't either don't need one or are unlikely to buy one whatever the TV licencing company do. As such, the revenue from the licence fee is unlikely to increase much unless the government authorise a massive increase, which they are unlikely to do.

The on demand TV market (and to some extent the linear pay TV market) is nowhere near the same level of saturation , so they have a *lot* more room to increase revenues.

Those figures do sound impressive, but let's put them in perspective. They are combined figures from all the subscription on demand providers, including Sky, Netflix and Amazon and they have doubled, but they are still under half the programming budget for ITV (£1.04bn) ITV's revenue was £2.96bn (so, around 6 times the combined revenue for the streaming services.

In 2012, Channel 4 spent about £450m on programming. The BBC spent around £2.276bn on programming last year..

On a side note, while I like Netflix and Prime Instant Video and use both, that article presents the study as being so pro streaming, I'm wondering who paid for it.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Tv companies might well use more live tv programs that encourage the viewer to interact such as BGT where you vote for your favourite act? That`s one way live tv can win over on demand I guess. And of course football matches are always better watched live in my opinion

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Good point, Harry, but this is another question, the answer to which may become apparent with time. However, Netflix have already ruled out advertising on their services, and indeed it is the lack of advertising which is attracting people to use them.

The advertisers themselves will withdraw their advertising or pay much less for advertisements if people are being drawn away from broadcast channels in great numbers. True, they may move to on demand, but punters are not going to use on demand if they get flooded out with commercials as they are on broadcast channels and there are advert free alternatives available.

---------- Post added at 12:18 ---------- Previous post was at 12:07 ----------

I can't see that working, because it is not that simple. My argument is that with all the options available, people will not be prepared to sit through commercials any more and will choose alternatives.

I guess there may be a proportion of viewers who cannot afford to pay for on demand services that are on subscription and would be prepared to put up with the adverts rather than have nothing, but the question is whether these are the viewers who are valued by the advertisers and whether they view in great enough numbers.

I suspect that the viewers most likely to spend money in response to ads are those who would rather pay subscriptions. But we will see.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Wonder why Sky has invested millions into Sky Adsmart then ?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

It may not seem much of a stretch for Netflix to take advertising, but remember that they have explicitly stated that they will not. Given this, I see no reason for concern that this is what will happen, you've heard it from the horse's mouth.

I have not made any assumptions about ITV except that they are likely to have to close some or all of their channels down in favour of on demand/streaming services. Although there may be an advertising option for those not willing to pay subscriptions, I believe that they will offer a subscription service and any advertising on there will be on the index pages, through programme sponsoring and product placement.

The comparison on the figures was for information purposes I believe. It was designed to show that the total number of people watching TV had increased marginally whereas viewership of streaming services was increasing significantly. A great amount of this must be at the expense of linear channels.

I think you are grossly underestimating the increasing presence of Netflix and Amazon and other providers that we can expect to come into play over the coming years. Netflix alone has some pretty good new series coming on stream on a regular basis at the moment. It's as much as I can do to keep up with them. I'm still getting through 'Orange is the New Black', 'House of Cards', 'Angel Black' and so on, and they are still adding new Netflix originals such as Sense8. Forget ITV's expenditure and the BBC's expenditure (which will probably be curtailed by the Government), it is the results in terms of programmes you want to look out for.

I suspect that most American series will be scooped up by these providers in the short to medium term. This probably explains why Sky 1 is going downhill rapidly with very little worth watching these days.

Seriously, there is an obvious problem here and I am a little surprised that you cannot see it. Advertising will cease to be a dominant feature as an income stream and this will put the broadcast channels in a very difficult position. I am sure there are some answers, but I don't believe that linear channels are going to last much longer in their present form. Live TV (mainly news and sport) may be an exception to this for the foreseeable future, although I wouldn't bet on it.

---------- Post added at 12:42 ---------- Previous post was at 12:37 ----------

I think it is due to the fact that they are desperately clinging on to the linear channel model upon which Sky relies, and to reduce the potential move away from broadcast channels by advertisers, they are offering a way of making ads personal to the viewer. This will be attractive to advertisers and may slow down the move away from this medium.

However, I think the diminishing revenue trend will continue over time, with the caveat that no-one can foresee the unexpected in terms of developments that no-one has yet anticipated. They will need something big to arrest the anticipated move away from this method of viewing.

---------- Post added at 12:44 ---------- Previous post was at 12:42 ----------

Well, maybe so, although one would have thought that Challenge TV would have come up with that ages ago.

I think there is money to be made out of exciting game shows using interactivity, but I see no sign of anyone testing this out.

What happened to Sky Poker, by the way? :D

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The lack of advertising on VOD isn't an act of kindness. It's because it's a technically difficult thing to do. It involves splicing video and audio streams that are often in different formats, which makes life hard for the decoder.

I'm sure eventually the issues will be resolved, so you advertphobes enjoy it while you can.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Sky has spent millions on its On Demand library and now makes some of its shows available On Demand before airing on linear so that's a silly point.

Who owns the large production companies ? That's right the broadcasters and large media companies you keep telling us won't be around much longer.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

It's linear TV that won't be around, I believe. The large production companies will live on but the delivery of their products will simply change.

Whatever happens in the future, I have absolutely no intention to watch programmes that are constantly interrupted by advertisements. Most people will come around to my way of thinking about this, I am absolutely certain.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I do like your world you depict Old Boy, where i choose soley what i want to watch, and when, and just watch live shows as/when they on.

My fear is without advertisment , this utopian world you depict will cost a hell of alot MORE cash to replace the lost revenue of advertisement which we musnt underestimate. (or is full of endorsement/product placement which is the same)

I yet to see in your arguement how they would get the alternative cash, as I said subscriptions would sky rocket from their current amount which is too much for some now

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

In this new world, there will inevitably be some downsides. It's not really a matter of whether we like that world or not, it's really a question of observing what is happening and for how much longer, with all the developments taking place, viewers will put up with the way things are now.

Perhaps a good balance would be to have sites which give the option of more expensive subscriptions or advertising, but I can't see the likes of HBO going for that.

For me, the ability to choose from a huge library of material without commercials getting in the way, is heaven!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

It just won't happen.

The likes of Netflix may hold back the adverts for the time being because they want their product to be as attractive as possible, but in the long term it simply isn't sustainable without cranking up subscriptions. And when you do that, you immediately become a niche provider, rather than a mass-market or universal distributor. Sky did this in the 1980s. Sports and Movies were all part of the package when they launched. It didn't last.

There will always be a substantial audience for completely free-to-view TV, and the most cost effective way of delivering it will always be over-the-air scheduled broadcast.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Netflix have been going since 1997 and have never used commercial adverts and most likely never will, they are testing programme adverts though aka trailers of their own shows, according to AFTV netflix have already said they will never have commercial adverts.
OTA broadcasting is getting more expensive for providers you only have to look at the cost of freeview slots to see this however linear tv isn't going anywhere anytime soon isps are investing in tv now and even though bt,talktalk and plusnet tv is online they are still linear channels.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Linkage http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/1341...-we-be-worried ;)

You may choose to trust them, but personally I find "we are not planning to" to be less than a watertight, door-slammed-shut commitment. To be fair, I wouldn't expect them, or any commercial operation, to say 'never' about anything. It would be too restrictive.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

If they haven't been showing comercial adverts for nearly 20 years i really can't see them starting now, they already now do a 3 tier streaming plan option this is how they will continue i think, but as you correctly say "never say never" end of the day money talks very loud.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I agree 20 years is a long time. However, the market for VOD is changing, as several of you in this thread have been very keen to point out. Competition squeezes margins, while higher viewing figures increases the price rights holders can charge for their product. VOD carriers are likely to find themselves squeezed from both ends.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

To be fair hasn't the Netflix streaming product only been around since 2007 , before it was a DVD by post business.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

This is true, i agree as demand increases so will cost for the content providers and we may see advertising slowly introduced via product placement.
On the otherhand Amazon are trialing a free version of instant video that is funded by advertising, if this is a success we could see netflix etc introduce a free service funded by advertising whilst keeping their standard version ad free and becoming a premium version,however i feel that the subscription price could increase if this happens.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Didn't the prices increase a few months back anyway? Isn't it £8.99 to watch the HD stuff now? Like you, I can't see it becoming cheaper in the future without adverts. I know they make vast profits, but surely they would not put the prices up unless they had to.

---------- Post added at 09:45 ---------- Previous post was at 09:32 ----------

Ads will to move to on demand - if that is they way of the future. I can not see a future in which there is no advertizements, there is simply too much money to be made from them.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

There was a price increase yes £5.99p/m for 1 screen sd only, £6.99p/m for 2 screens and hd and £8.99p/m for 4 screens and ultra hd.
I only pay £4.68p/m for 2 screens plus hd as i used a vpn and subscribed via canada netflix.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I think Netflix are making a boast out of something they have little control over anyway. Until they reach mass-market penetration, their ad space isn't actually worth very much. It may be that they think, at this stage, the ad-free proposition is worth more to them than the modest revenue they would get from flogging price comparison websites and personal injury lawyers.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

They already are reaching mass market penetration according to wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netflix they already have over 60 million customers.
Netflix have also announced they will be launching in Spain, Portuagal and Italy in October with more regions to come.

Edit nearly forgot netflix link http://www.ubergizmo.com/2015/06/net...gal-confirmed/

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Not sure how they're going to get on in Spain, a lot of small towns still have dial-up!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Where did you get that 60 million from? IF you add up the 2011 figures that comes to around 60 million, and the page says that they are adding 7 million a year, which sounds impressive until you realise that their potential market consists of the US, Canada and most of Europe. 7m is a fraction of the population of those countries.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

"Market" and "Customers" are two entirely different things. You can't just go on the internets, google up a great big number, and then declare you've made your case. ;)

Netflix may well have 60 million customers worldwide, but they are spread across many and diverse markets. Within the UK market, which is what we are discussing here, they had 3 million customers as of late last year. The average size of a UK household is 2.3, which implies an absolute maximum audience for Netflix of 6.9 million at any given time, assuming there is ever a time when every member of a subscribing household is sitting down and watching Netflix at the same time. This is extremely unlikely. Consider, for example, that the nearest the UK gets to all watching the same thing at the same time is whatever is on BBC One in the late afternoon or early evening on Christmas Day, and that attracts about 12-14 million.

Of course, you might reply, that's all besides the point because the whole point of a service like Netflix is that it doesn't rely on everyone watching at once. However, the advertising of mass-market consumer brands *does* rely on that. Big brands have big campaigns which run on a scale designed to get potential consumers talking about them. That is much more difficult to achieve if you can't reach a large audience, or you can't reach a large audience all at once. A 30 second slot in the ad break in the middle of Corrie is worth £50K to £100k for good reason.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

From the wiki page obviously wiki pages are debateable "As of mid-March 2013, Netflix had 33 million subscribers.[12] That number increased to 36.3 million subscribers (29.2 million in the U.S.) in April 2013.[13] As of September 2013, for that year's third quarter report, Netflix reported its total of global streaming subscribers at 40.4 million (31.2 million in the U.S.).[14] By the fourth quarter of 2013, Netflix reported 33.1 million U.S. subscribers.[15] By the first quarter of 2015, there were more than 60 million subscribers globally!

---------- Post added at 16:00 ---------- Previous post was at 15:53 ----------

Fair point but Netflix is still fairly young in the uk, Rome wasn't built in a day, ofcourse adverts on terrestial linear channels will be worth a hell of a lot more than potential adverts on online services such as netflix as linear tv is more widely available than fast broadband.
Something like let's say 2020 we could see that change as faster broadband becomes more widely available (no this won't be the end of linear tv ob :p: ) the ad revenue for online services would come more closer to inline with ota broadcast services. we will see i think more in the line of product placement in shows made by companies such as netflix rather than actual commercial adverts.
Product placement can bring in a tidy sum, even BBC do it on some of it's shows.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Which was exactly my point. Netflix may well be trying to make a virtue out of the fact they don't run adverts, simply because being able to say that is worth more to them than they would make if they actually sold advertising space, as their audience size is meagre.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Ah now i see what you mean and i agree.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Or they could just have been trying to quash a false rumour.

Actually, some brands are international (e.g. car manufacturers), so Netflix's world wide audience would be attractive to them for advertising.

I think that Netflix have no intention of advertising, as the 'no-adverts' is a massive part of their attraction and a great selling point.

If they ever did advertise, I think it would be a last resort, no option decision.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Just had an email from them saying the price is going up again, the 2 screen option is increasing from £6.99 to £7.49, not sure if the other ones are increasing too.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Members who signed up before the last price increase, get to keep the original £5.99 price until May 2016.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

They charge me £6.99 and i've had the account for years. I'm guessing because i don't have the sub continuous, i stop and start it quite a bit. Not complaining as it's still dirt cheap.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Very very few brands advertise in the same way across territories. Products are packaged and promoted diffreently. Production occurs in different places at different rates, necessitating diffeerent promotional approaches. Even things that ought in theory to be saleable worldwide, simultaneously, e.g. DVDs or their downloadable equivalent, arent for all sorts of reasons. In fact active steps are taken to prevent it. So no, Netflix's worldwide customer base is entirely irrelevant to the issue of whether it is worth their taking adverts. The only relevant figure is their customer base in any one territory or market.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

There is no reason why a company such as Ford could not come up with a global general promotional piece, and, also, modern technology would allow Netflix to insert regional variations easily and automatically.

And as far as 'any one territory', the user base for US Netflix is more than sufficient for an add campaign.

Are you sure you're not looking for hidden meanings, in what is actually, just a simple statement?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I think Chris is using this argument to justify his view that linear TV is safe. He is basically saying that if all on demand and streaming services were flooded with adverts, everything would stay as it is, and I agree that it probably would in those circumstances.

However, it is not going to happen. Streaming services will continue to be funded primarily through subscriptions, and this is what will make them attractive to viewers.

Netflix has confirmed that this is the approach they will take and I don't think an argument based on the premise that they are lying is sustainable.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well his view stands up to scrutiny more then your absurd view that Linear TV is suddenly going to disappear because it will still be around when l have gone the way of the dodo OB.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Why is the idea absurd, Den? I have explained why viewers will be attracted away from linear TV as streaming services develop without advertising and at a reasonable subscription price. This will mean that income from advertising will decline. Why is that not a rational argument?

What is your reason for saying that linear channels will still be around in years to come? Things change over time and I know it is sometimes difficult to imagine things being different looking ahead. However, change happens.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

TBF, I don't think OB has ever said 'suddenly' :D

I think Freeview linear TV will be around for a very long time and Netflix, Amazon Prime and Now TV are complementary to it.

Netflix, Amazon Prime and Now TV realise the attraction of add free viewing and will resist adds for as long as economically possible.

If Sport ever becomes fully freed up from a pay TV subscription, then pay TV channels may start to suffer subscription losses, but many people just want the simplicity of just 'switching on the telly' and so it will take a long time before any significant number of people abandon pay TV.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

BIB. Yup, but to be fair to OB has been banging his drum about tv in 10/20 years time. All of them will probably be advertising by then. As has been reported, Netflix are putting their prices up again and next year my bill will probably rise from £5.99/£6.99 (I can't remember the price I pay - I think its £5.99) to £7.99 next year when they probably put prices up again - I don't know if that package will even include HD. I will not pay much more for Netflix if this continues each year. I can rent the DVD's from lovefilm by post if I am desperate to watch any of their shows/films in future. Yeah, I have to wait a bit longer to see them but I am patient enough for that.

There is no way they will not be advertising in 10/20 years time. If, somehow, they choose not to advertise I imagine they will have to flog the rights of some shows to linear TV channels.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

As soon as the football becomes available my paid tv will be cancelled and will just have a broadband line. I think there is so many other people in a similar position. Netflix and Amazon have changed how I watch TV in that I wait and watch series in bulk. I prefer it that way and with shows like GoT its nearly better to watch it that way!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

But how do you know that Lovefilm by post won't be getting an increase in the not too distant future?

---------- Post added at 16:25 ---------- Previous post was at 16:11 ----------

For non sports fans, Freeview plus several streaming services, is the way to go. But people lead busy lives with little spare time and having it all delivered through a single pay TV box has it's benefits. And that is why conventional delivery methods will go on for many more years.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

As with so many arguments advanced in this thread, you start with the assumption that someone could change something about the (usually entirely successful) way they do things in order to accommodate a limitation of VOD.

It's pointless. People and corporations do things the way they do because they work.

I wasn't looking at any statement. Statements are irrelevant - no company can absolutely rule out a revenue stream forever, especially not a revenue stream that is the ordinary, uncontroversial means by which most TV stations fund themselves.

Sooner or later, they will run adverts. That's a fact. The only thing stopping them doing so now is that as a marketplace for ad agencies, they are small beer indeed, and it is worth their while to make a virtue out of a necessity.

No pledge to remain ad-free is sustainable. Eventually it will become too tempting as a revenue stream and they will adopt it. Continuing to run without adverts will eventually make their subscription rates uncompetitive.

As for whether that makes them more or less attractive to viewers - who cares? It's irrelevant. Linear TV will not come to an end based on the success of any non-linear subscription service. Linear TV will not come to an end at any point in the next 30 years at least, and probably much longer than that, because it does a lot of things that non-linear TV, by its very nature, is incapable of doing.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

It seems to me that you're the one limiting things (and in a kind of patronising way). I've pointed out that it is perfectly feasible to do it. In my view, at this point in time, Netflix don't have adds because they don't want them. If they ever wanted to, they would work with the corporations to make it work successfully for both parties.



And that is the crux of our difference of opinion on this 'advertising' aspect of Netflix at this point in time: You believe they want to run adds, but advertisers aren't interested in them. I believe that, at this point in time, Netflix have no intention of running adds because they don't want to.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Please don't tell me what I believe - especially as I have repeatedly said something different and it's all here in black and white for everyone to see.

I never said advertsers aren't interested and I never said Netflix want to do it right now.

I said, the financial benefit from advertising, and the pool of advertisers willing to pay for space on a platform with such limited reach, is such that Netflix may believe there is more to be gained from making a virtue out of not carrying adverts.

There is no doubt that saying they are ad-free has commercial value - the statements made by some big VOD fans in this thread prove that. At this point in time, I argue, that value is greater than the limited extra revenue available from advertising. Therefore Netflix *don't* want to run adverts right now. They calculate that they are better off not doing it. And in business, that calculation is ultimately all that matters.

In time, that calculation will change. And it will change a *long* time before anyone in a position of influence even suggests ending linear TV broadcasts in the UK.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

What companies say and what they do often have little or no link to each other.
Back in the 90s, Microsoft were publically saying that the future of the internet was their own MSN Network rather than the web, while secretly developing Internet Explorer.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Indeed, once Netflix gets big enough they'll do what they want to do. Take advantage of how things are now instead of worrying what they might do in the future, they will always do what is best for them.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

They probably will. That is fine for me though, I get much more choice on there than I do Netflix. I appreciate I have to wait a little while to get it, but that's fine by me!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I agree that they might take some advertising, but not in a way that prevents you from starting to watch your show. However, one ad just before the show would just about be acceptable, I think.

However, Netflix have said they are not going to do it, and although they may change their minds over time, I don't think anyone should assume that it is inevitable.

As far as prices are concerned, yes, I think there is a limit on how far they should increase their charges. £5.99 per month is pretty reasonable, but the amount by which they are going up now is a bit alarming.

To avoid losing subscribers, I think they should leave the base subscription where it is and have more expensive packages that enable you to see additional material. I think that would work.

The difference between Netflix US and Netflix UK is massive and I can understand why charges need to go up if we are to get a similar service.

---------- Post added at 09:53 ---------- Previous post was at 09:46 ----------

It's not a fact, Chris, it's your opinion. Are you really saying that the subscription model cannot generate a decent profit?

Whilst I concede that if streaming services become flooded with ads interrupting programmes, linear channels would probably continue much as they are now, my premise is that this will not happen.

Your view seems to be that advertisements on streaming services are inevitable, even though Netflix has ruled that out.

My view is that Netflix should be taken seriously in terms of what it is saying and we should not be cynically implying that they are lying. That being the case, and assuming that other streaming services think the same, linear channels need to come up with some good plans to survive against the competition in the future.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nope. It's a fact. The evidence is every other entertainment platform ever invented, from newspapers to cinemas. Even the venerable video library, which is the nearest existing analogy to streaming services like Netflix, would hire you VHS tapes, or latterly DVDs, that had several minutes of adverts at the beginning.

It is clear that Netflix has taken a commercial decision not to run adverts at this time. For you to blindly accept that this means they will never take adverts ever, is to completely fail to understand commercial reality. No business ever closes the door entirely and forever on a revenue stream that is open to its competitors, and is already being exploited by its competitors.

It's very generous of you to concede a point I have not made. The existence, or not, of adverts on VOD is totally irrelevant to the future of linear broadcast TV. Broadcast works, and will continue to work, on its own merits.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nope, it is not a fact. You are assuming that the way things have 'always' happened in the past is the way things will always be done in the future.

The big advantages of the streaming services coming on stream now is that they are ad free and they provide a huge range of material instantly. Once they start to degrade those advantages, they will become less attractive.

If Netflix have worked out that they can provide the level of service they want to provide, funded by subscriptions, then ads are certainly not inevitable, particularly if they have calculated that this will reduce the interest in the services they offer.

If your whole argument is based on your insistence that Netflix are lying, then I'm afraid I don't buy that argument.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Again, you're quoting my posts but clearly you're not reading them. I've never at any point said Netflix are lying. What I have done, repeatedly, and (I thought) as clearly as possible, is point to the simple commercial reality that no business can ever say never.

First, businesses are bound by law to ensure their shareholders get a return on their investment. They can't disavow adverts for all time, if in future that strategy reduces shareholder value. Second, chief executives don't stay in post forever. When one leaves and another one takes the job, strategy changes. The current management at Netflix has concluded that current market conditions make their current business model both sustainable and desirable. In the future, that will change. It always does, for every business, sooner or later.

At some point in the future, Netflix will run adverts. It is a fact, beyond all reasonable doubt. The sheer weight of evidence simply doesn't allow you to pass my conclusion off as an "assumption".

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Sorry OB, but the past is the greatest indicator of what will happen in the future. There is nothing new in the world. The proverbial old wheel spins but the same proverbial spokes continue to turn too.

Netflix could easily fund everything through subscription, but look at the price increases in the last couple of years used to fund the new content. Just out of curiosity, how much would you be willing to pay for an ad free Netflix service over the next 5 years? Bearing in mind you will probably need pay TV to fulfil your viewing needs during that time too.

I think unskippable ads on VOD are inevitable, and that will only strengthen linear TV's appeal.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I couldn't really say how much I would be prepared to pay because it would depend on what was on offer. I wouldn't want to pay a lot more for the services Netflix currently offer, but if we had a better range of programming, such as is available in the US, I would definitely pay a few quid more every month.

Any streaming service that offered me a really huge library of material (including the new as well as the old stuff) would be more valuable to me than the subscription I pay to Sky Movies and Sky Sports, lets put it that way.

At some point in the future, when streaming services have a more comprehensive offer, I shall certainly look again at the TV package I subscribe to and I may ditch some of my existing packages. I am certainly becoming disillusioned with Sky's offering these days, there's virtually nothing on their non premium channels worth watching. The Channel 4 bouquet of channels puts them to shame.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Fair enough to the price. I think Sky are obviously putting all the "good" stuff on Atlantic purely to try to continue to force people to get Sky.

With regards your post in the other thread, someone pointed out the majority of people are watching linear TV. Very few are watching on demand/streaming.
I would not expect 16-24 year olds to watch much TV anyway. I also doubt there are that many adverts aimed at 16-24 year olds. Over 60% of that demographic are watching linear and recorded tv, why aren't the rest watching more on demand/streaming (which includes some linear services)? That's over 4 times the amount of people watching on demand/streaming (which includes some linear services.) Please do tell me why more people aged 16-24 are not watching more on demand etc - seeings as that is what you think the next generation will watch. That is just one part of where your argument fails.

According to those figures, Linear TV is still the most watched medium and on demand/streaming (which includes some linear services) is clearly not as popular as you think with that generation.

The youngsters are most likely either out enjoying their young lives or doing their studies. Goodness knows I used to enjoy my evenings out, I certainly did not stay in and watch coronation street (or study enough any where near enough)!!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Oh, I do agree with you Harry on the fact that linear broadcast channels on TV currently ranks as the most popular medium for watching TV. But the trend is away from this. Notice incidentally, that 50% of the viewing that takes place by 16-24 year olds is free of ads. Does that not scream something at us? They may watch less TV than other age groups, but what they watch and how they watch it is important to note.

The older age groups obviously take more time to adjust to these things, but it is the younger ones that set the trend.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Firstly, if 50% of content is ad free, the other 50% isn't.

29% of the 50% you quote is watching content via recordings or DVD etc. Both recordings and DVD's etc have ads, which help keep costs of DVDs etc down, and recordings are obviuosly off linear tv. A further 8% watched "content" (I use content in its loosest possibly term) via youtube facebook etc. I am pretty certain the vast amount of videos on facebook, youtube etc have ads, even if it is just the little ad box that pops up. Many have the unskippable ad's already (like most newspaper sites) and the little box ads as well. Some (mercifully) have none or skippable ads - these are the rarity. I don't watch many of the videos, but I the ones I do are ad funded. 7% watch On-demand, and we know ITV and 4od already have unskippable ads, so the likelihood is that they would have seen ads on some of that content too. Only 6% can be guaranteed as being ad free.

So would you care to explain, in more detail, how you think 50% of the content 16-24 year olds is ad free? I look to forward to your response.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, first of all of course I agree that if younger viewers are watching 50% of content ad free, the other 50% isn't. My maths is at least that good. The point is, this percentage of ad free material is much higher than for older age groups and if everyone fell into the habit of viewing ad free wherever possible, the linear channels will be in trouble.

Whilst recordings have adverts (don't I know it), these are skippable and if viewers are skipping the ads, clearly the advertisers are not getting much benefit from that. I can shave around 15 minutes off recorded programming from the likes of Sky every hour and this is the only way I will watch the non premium Sky channels these days.

The DVDs I have bought recently do not have ads ('Game of Thrones' and 'Boardwalk Empire' do not have ads that I have to sit through at all). I know Blockbuster used to add commercials to their DVDs and maybe rental outlets still do this. However, aren't they skippable as well?

In terms of other digital viewing where you may get the odd pop up ad, this is rather different from the three or more minutes a time that have to be endured when watching broadcast television.

I have no experience of unskippable ads on demand because I think this is what you get on the computer, whereas the on demand you get on TV does not have this. I do concede that I had not taken account of unskippable ads on demand via computer.

I am not disagreeing that if advertisements do come big time to all methods of watching programmes, this will save linear TV. My point is that viewers are becoming tired of being beholden to the viewing schedules of linear TV and their interminable advertisements and sooner or later, people will migrate from that type of viewing.

I do not believe that streaming services will get bogged down with advertising, although as long as they offer this as an alternative to subscription viewing, this would be acceptable to me.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nope, everybody has the option join Netflix etc and watch ad free programs. It is not restricted to a certain percentage of people or age groups.
I will say it once again, only 6% of 16-24 year old's watched guaranteed ad free content it. That suggests the younger generation are not falling into the habit of watching ad free content. Why are you struggling to understand that?

Yes, recordings and DVD ads are skippable, but that is the point. As I have said before, people have been skipping ad's for as long as I can remember, that is for well over 30 years and it still works as well now as it did 30 years ago - it will continue to happen for many, many more years yet.

IF companies are getting upset by paying good money for ad's and people are skipping ad's, what do you think they will do in the future - just roll over and not offer any ad's ever again? Or force people to watch them on VOD/streaming content. There will always be a need for companies to advertize, and companies will want to reach the maximum amount of people. If, as you suggest, that will be on demand, you can bet your bottom dollar that is where it will go!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Don't they have a load of anti-piracy crap that you have to watch at the beginning that isn't skippable? That's as bad as blooming adverts.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

And the irony is, people who illegally download the film, don't have to sit through all that.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

79% of Netflix subscribers in a poll would rather pay more than have ads: http://exstreamist.com/poll-79-of-ne...-than-see-ads/

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Interesting poll, a few highlights for me

"In contrast though, 54% of subscribers said they would actually be ok with third party advertisements if it meant Netflix could significantly increase their content library."

But to be fair to the opposite polar of the argument some people comments were

“The sole reason I switched to Netflix was to cut-out the ads. This is their unique selling point, and to start including ads devalues the concept.”

“I would rather pay more for a subscription. It is such a pleasure to watch a program with no ads.”

it seems this debate sees people in two very distinct camps:
1) pay more get more no ads
2) get ads get more

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

It's an interesting issue in its own right. Netflix clearly has a fine balance to achieve, but as of right now I do think that their limited subscriber base means they would not make much ad revenue, and therefore it is mor valuable to them to pitch at the ad-free market.

I don't think it is relevant to the issue of the future of linear TV in any way, shape or form. There is nowhere in the world where the entire TV landscape is locked behind voluntary subscription, because the market for free to air, ad-funded TV is too great. Subscription services, especially Internet-delivered ones like Netflix, will always be niche.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Netflix has nearly 5m subscribers in the UK alone. They have far more viewings that Sky Atlantic! So your point about not being able to achieve much ad revenue does not appear to be correct.

The reason I have pointed to the frailty of linear TV is simply that other non-advertising options and the increasing popularity of on demand TV will draw people away from commercial TV. So of course there is a correlation and a point to my argument.

Your view merely seems to suggest that it won't happen, and you are relying heavily on your theory that advertising will come to Netflix (despite them saying it won't), the fact that you personally would rather watch linear TV (which is not going to influence anything) and your concerns for the poor advertisers (who will find another way to promote their products if existing methods dry up).

It is true that other developments may save linear TV. So if all other platforms became flooded with ads, that would ensure linear TV's survival. However, I can't see that happening, which is why I have concluded as I have.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

On the contrary, you have concluded as you have because you find VOD to be so wonderful, you're having a hard time believing anyone else could possibly not share your joy. You're a marketeer's dream - a product evangelist. Good on you, if you like it, it works for you and the price is right. All my arguments in this thread, however, boil down to one simple concept: not everybody agrees with you. In fact, so many people don't, that the existing, efficient and (licence fee excepted) free at point of use broadcast system we currently enjoy, is not going to be closing down at any point in the foreseeable future.

To be perfectly frank, I don't care whether Netflix takes adverts or not. It is a side issue that is simply not relevant to the issue of linear TV. I happen to think that simple economics will eventually dictate the decision for them, but if in 10 years they're still cheerfully ad-free, so what? Good for you, as it seems to matter to you, not in any way important to me because the BBC, ITV, C4, C5 and a good number of FTA 'digital' channels will all still be there, and I will continue to consume TV entertainment as I now do, when it's convenient, without much thought or planning, at the end of another busy day at work.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Goodness me OB. Firstly, where are your stats for the viewing figures of Netflix and how many people have access to Atlantic? Genuinely interested in Netflix viewing figures.

Secondly, if on demand is becoming more popular, how much of it is through original content and how much of it is through people sticking on old shows when nothing else is available? All that has changed with OD content is that people don't have to go through the hassle of putting in a dvd, when there is nothing else on. I dread to think how many times I have turned linear TV on, found nothing worth watching and stuck a film on. People have been doing that for 30 years as well, with no problems arising for linear TV. Don't forget Sky will always have on demand content and BT can always afford to throw money at OD content to boost their linear TV offering.

Thirdly, your posts are just your views as well. I don't recall anyone ever having concerns for advertisers either. It's you who keeps telling us they will lose a massive platform to broadcast on in 10 years. Equally, Your views are relying heavily on the fact advertising on Netflix etc will never happen and that you prefer On Demand content (which is not going to influence anything). Oh, where else are companies going to place ads if they will not be on linear TV or On Demand, Netflix etc? The Internet? Radio? Newspapers? Magazines? Big advertising Hoardings? Phone apps and games? Cinema? Nope, these are all ready in use, so where is next place for them to go?

I can see ads going on to on demand, Netflix etc, so that is why I have concluded as I have too.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

OB, I am not sure whether it happens on other shows (and it certainly has not happened on the first 4 series) but having started on the 5th season of The Wire today, I have found that Sky have lumped two or three adverts on to the start of the show. Thankfully I can skip them, but ads have started on Sky on demand. I guess it's only a matter of time before there are more ads on more shows!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

This article confirms the growing use of video streaming to watch programmes, but confirms that broadcast TV viewing is still holding up well at the present time.

http://advanced-television.com/2015/...now-streaming/

Extract

TV Share of Clock – the first of four studies in GfK MRI’s new The Future of TV series – shows that more than a quarter (28 per cent) of all TV viewing is now done via digital streaming. Accessing subscription or free online platforms via a computer or mobile device accounts for 16 per cent of time spent with TV content; online streaming through a traditional TV set makes up another 9 per cent; and 3 per cent comes from other methods for accessing content, such as portable game consoles.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

You are comparing apples and oranges. The fact that Netflix has nearly 5m subscribers in the UK does NOT mean that they all watch Netflix regularly, if at all. The figures published for Sky Atlantic are an educated estimate of how many people have watched the channel in a given period. if you are going to bring number of subscribers into it, perhaps you ought to remember that every Sky subscriber has access to Sky Atlantic and there are over 10 million Sky subscribers (http://www.theguardian.com/media/201...oadband-now-tv) and that figure may or may not include subscribers that access Sky via cable.

The only way we could make a fair comparison is for Netflix to publish actual viewing figures, but I don't think that will come until Netflix start carrying adverts (and even with the subscription, I believe it's a case of when, not if) and the advertisers demand actual viewing figures.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The thing is, all subscribers who can access Sky Atlantic have choices of many other channels as well. Quite a few of those subscribers may never, or perhaps only occasionally, view programmes on Sky Atlantic.

However, people wouldn't subscribe to Netflix if they weren't going to view anything on it, would they?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I'm pretty sure many Netflix subscribers have the same option from other sources for instant freeview , pay tv and other On Demand services , unless your suggesting the average Netflix punter has no access to Freeview or other services.

Edit , Don't you have a full pay TV service and Netflix ?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

You've illustrated another reason why the subscriber numbers are irrelevant. I'm well aware that not everyone who has access to Sky Atlantic watches it regularly (if at all). The same applies to Netflix. I, for example, watch it a few times a month, but mainly for old shows and films, and if Netflix published actual viewing figures rather than subscriber numbers, that may be reflected.

As for your question, I suspect that most people wouldn't subscribe to Netflix if they didn't think they'd get any use, but some people do sign up on behalf of their kids, who probably wouldn't be watching Sky Atlantic.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The point I was making was that those who subscribe to Netflix do so because they (or their family) want to watch it.

Whereas, those who subscribe to Sky do not necessarily do so for the purpose of watching Sky Atlantic.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I was interested to read in The Sunday Times that Tim Cook (the Chief Executive of Apple) has stated that in his view "the future of television is apps".

He believes that instead of flicking through channels, consumers will 'increasingly look to a variety of apps when they sit down in front of the TV set'. It states in the Times article that the power that TV channels currently wield through their programming schedules will disappear. Although Sky and other commercials are safe for the time being, 'the long term threat to Britain's biggest commercial broadcasters is plain. The impact of the interlopers has been most keenly felt across the Atlantic. Americans have become used to buying expensive cable TV packages, because the country has so few quality free to air channels, such as BBC and ITV. Many households are severing cable contracts costing $100 a month or more in favour of the slimmed down deals from Amazon and Netflix'.

This is exactly what I have been predicting will happen here unless the terrestrial commercial channels pull some rabbits out of hats.

You heard it here first!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Of course he would; He wants to sell the new Apple TV that's launching next month, which is app driven. Apple are rumoured to be trying to do deals with US TV Networks for content.

Doesn't make him wrong, but it helps to understand why he is promoting this idea.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Man who sells app-driven entertainment download devices says the future of TV lies in app-driven entertainment download devices ... hold the front page ...

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Don't you think he's correct then?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Sorry, Chris, but this is his line of work and I think he knows his onions.

Who would you believe - some random person who thought you should cut the red wire to a ticking bomb or a bomb disposal expert? If you look at this issue from a neutral standpoint, it's easy to see who is right here.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

:rofl:

Always ask: qui bono?

The bomb disposal expert benefits by telling you how not to blow yourself up. The CEO of a multi-billion-$ corporation benefits from telling you to buy his product.

Simples. ;)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

You're a sad man, Chris!! ;):D

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Personally I'd question him with Apples track record on streaming tv boxes , they've hardly stood out from the competition have they.

Apps on tv it's hardly something new is it.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Kind of behind now... before their new box has even left the shops.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The Macintosh, the iPod, the iPhone, even the iPad ... none of these were first to market. You don't have to be first, you just have to be better than the competition when you get there. By their own admission, Apple hasn't really taken Apple TV seriously until now. If they now say they are taking it seriously, then it will be worth watching.