Re: Brexit
 

We're adding restrictions to:

1) The second biggest economic bloc in the world
2) Our biggest single trading partner by far
3) Our closest trading partner by far.

It's going to take quite a lot to match that elsewhere let alone exceed it. Especially since most trade takes place between countries close to each other.

Re: Brexit
 

Are we? And what restrictions are going to be so mind bendingly crushing that it will be devastating for business with Theresa May's strategy? I see no evidence of that. We will still be trading with our biggest partner, with or without an agreement.

Incidentally, I note that Theresa May has challenged Jeremy Corbyn to a head to head debate on Brexit. Now that would be interesting!

Re: Brexit
 

LOL, she refused to debate with him at the General Election , why should he help her out now ! Methinks the lady is desperate ! :D

Farage and May would be more interesting....

Re: Brexit
 

Page 23 of that study is our friend here with a pickup of 12% in trade from the anglosphere (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and 19% growth from the BRIICs (Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, India, China and South Africa) if there are trade deals. The proposed FTAs used in the study are 'average' based on previous agreements.

Here's a blog post on the effects of FTAs post Brexit - https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/will-ne...ow-hard-brexit

As always, the error bars tend to be quite large and use a number of assumptions and this paper is clear in taking one factor (brexit) in to account.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

How do you come to the conclusion that it is a 'small' upside? And if TM's deal got through, which would preserve our trade with the EU, could you tell me what this huge downside is?

In truth, nobody can forecast the extent of the advantage we will have over now because this depends on how our entrepreneurs take advantage of it. How do you predict that?

---------- Post added at 18:18 ---------- Previous post was at 18:16 ----------

She sees an opportunity, obviously! Corbyn doesn't understand Brexit and doesn't know where he stands on it. A debate on this subject will demonstrate to the electorate who would make a better leader.

---------- Post added at 18:26 ---------- Previous post was at 18:18 ----------

They are figures which have been assumed and may as well have been plucked out of the air. Never take such forecasts as gospel, they always turn out to be very wrong in my experience.

Re: Brexit
 

I have experience of immigrants, their jobs, their pay and their history of benefit claims due to past and present roles.

Assumptions are seldom true and never helpful.

Re: Brexit
 

I think vince cable is broken and stuck in a loop as the old fool keeps wining on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about another vote.

Re: Brexit
 

Maybe there is a case for being more generous to those who are doing us a favour by coming here as opposed to the other way round.

Having said that, even health care will be affected by automation. GP's may initially be replaced by AI and robots may keep an eye on the sick, elderly and disabled in their own homes; reporting back via the internet.

Re: Brexit
 

Course you have - let me guess, you can’t discuss these ‘roles’...

I have experience of violent racist thugs (BNP and EDL), but, strangely enough, I do not make the assumption that they represent all, or even the majority, of Brits, so don’t judge all Brits on the inappropriate behaviour of a few.

Re: Brexit
 

Andrew posted something similar earlier; in response I said that I don't think that these reports don't paint the true picture. I still believe that the majority of unskilled immigrants get a better deal out of them coming here than we do.

Economics aside, they are putting pressure on public services. Yes, some help the NHS, but how many more of these NHS staff are needed to cope with the immigrants themselves?

---------- Post added at 19:22 ---------- Previous post was at 19:20 ----------

Interesting...

Re: Brexit
 

You'll know then that EU migrants are less likely to be claiming benefits, and more likely to be contributors than our home grown population.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8542506.html

Re: Brexit
 

This explains a lot.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...EEA_report.PDF

Re: Brexit
 

Just like she saw the last General Electrion as an opportunity :D. #strongandstable

The more Corbyn was exposed in an election campaign, the further his ratings went up !

Re: Brexit
 

Personally Corbyn is not the leader l would pick for the Labour party but the Conservatives would be wise not to repeat the same tactic as last time as it obviously did not work in 2017 and was pretty much a unmitigated disaster for them as voters get fed up with repeated personal character assassination attacks.

Re: Brexit
 

I have experience of 'the behaviour' of many immigrants through various roles, such as voluntary work, management committees, sub committees, past & present jobs etc.

What a lot do to get round the no Jobseekers Allowance for three months rule (in non Universal Credit areas) is to become 'self employed' for 16 hours a week on a tiny income e.g. taxi drivers claiming to work for £1 an hour or scrap metal dealers who say they hardly find anything. This entitles them to claim Child Benefit, maximum Tax Credits, Council Tax Reduction, Housing Benefit etc.

This is why Camerons Government made changes to how Universal Credit is administered ie if the self employed don't earn above a notional threshold after a year, benefit is terminated.

In addition, his Government restricted the amount of children who could be claimed for to two and increased the minimum wage, so that those in legitimate remunerative work would be able to claim less.

Don't forget that some of these children have never set foot in the UK.

As the EU require EU immigrants and British people to be treated the same, this also applied to people here too and is causing problems, something that Mrs May's Government has promised to look into.

Your wife (or one of here colleagues) may be able to confirm exactly what's been going on.

Another issue that I have is the EU reciprocal arrangements for healthcare. EU visitors are allowed the same treatment afforded to natives of the relevant country. Those coming here can avail themselves of our NHS, yet if we go to their countries where free healthcare is limited or non existant, we have to pay.

We are being taken for a ride simply because we provide free healthcare, which hardly encourages Governments to provide this.

Re: Brexit
 

Agreed. I don't need a telly debate to tell me that Theresa May is the better of these two underwhelming politicians, although I do hugely admire Theresa May's resilience and determination. It would probably benefit JC to appear but he's probably daft enough to avoid the opportunity.
Labour should bring back David Milliband but he probably thinks UK politics is a thankless task.

Re: Brexit
 

A TV debate is pointless.

All JC does is shout and tell May to stand aside and let Labour take over Brexit.

But JC just want to keep us in the single market.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Think you'll find Jezza is more of a Eurosceptic than May ...

Re: Brexit
 

Like I say, some do provide financial (and other) benefits to the UK and there's no reason that they cannot continue to be welcomed.

However, I maintain that these reports don't paint the full picture and that the immigrants are the ones to mainly benefit from coming here (especially where they are uneducated, unskilled etc). These are the ones we need to rid ourselves of.

Re: Brexit
 

It's natural to be influenced by what we see and experience as opposed to the bigger picture that we get from grey statistics. We probably all are far more swayed than we care to admit by our own experiences, especially adverse ones.
If you look at the ages of EU immigrants v the current UK population, you will see that they are younger hence the £2,300 a year profit the country makes from them.

Re: Brexit
 

He always has been.

---------- Post added at 19:58 ---------- Previous post was at 19:57 ----------

These reports are independent and are free from political influence.

Re: Brexit
 

Jezza has a triangular dilemma. He is torn between Labour MPs who favour Remain, Labour constituencies who favour Leave and Jezza himself who secretly favours Leave but also wants to be in power so needs to oppose Leave to get in power.

Re: Brexit
 

One good reason why he would welcome leaving the EU is that he could nationalise and subsidise to his heart's content until he bankrupts us. Then we can prepare for austerity all over again. :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

MI can’t dispute that the benefit system gets played by people feigning disability. However from observation in my experience it’s mainly lazy people born here. It used to be bad backs now it’s mental health issues. Everyone has their ups and downs, however now it’s chronic depression.

My experience of migrants is they are here to work and contribute doing jobs the benefit claimants would refuse to do as “not worthwhile”.

Re: Brexit
 

Of course there are some that milk the system but one thing we should not do is pigeon hole that most disabled claimants are scroungers who feign their illnesses and conditions because that is simply not true.

Re: Brexit
 

I’m sure it isn’t most, however there are pitfalls applying the observation of one person or one local community onto an entire population. I’m just offering another example of that. Who knows, maybe they will be next once it’s realised that poverty in this country has nothing to do with immigration.

Re: Brexit
 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...deal-great-eu/
Oh dear, Donald isn't helping is he ! Probably had a nudge from his buddy Farage.

Re: Brexit
 

Or Putin.

Re: Brexit
 

Remember that it's only true we can't do a trade deal if the backstop comes into effect, we don't know the full details of the 'future arrangement' yet, it's congress not the President who largely deals with it and they're all going to be obsessed with 2020 now anyway.

Re: Brexit
 

Putin may not be the source of the illicit £8m Leave.EU funding but it would have been a good investment to distract eyes away from the aggressive actions in Ukraine that are further down the news agenda due to Brexit.

Re: Brexit
 

Brexit is more important.

Re: Brexit
 

Perhaps you should tell that to the mass of Eastern European’s who’ve flooded our town, mainly Romanians, who of many don’t actually work, they fight each other constantly, don’t speak a word of English, so have no desire to intergrate with the community, they’re antisocial, they’re messy, throw babies shitty nappies out the windows, ignore refuse policies and just throw their crap in the alleyway.

Muggings went up tenfold in the area, all the mugging victims claiming the muggers appeared Romanian.

Our Asian and Pakistani community absolutely detests them. Three or four Asian men got out of their car to help a white English lad, who was in the process of being mugged by a two Romanian men, in broad daylight.

I have no issues with people coming to the U.K., who contribute to society, but I feel we’ve not attracted the best or brightest of migrants, whose sole intention is to ride the benefit gravy train and rob and steal from the community.

Re: Brexit
 

Liking the ventriloquist dummy image.;)

Re: Brexit
 

Couldn't have put it better myself.

Does anyone know when free movement of labour ends under Mays plan? I suppose it will still be in effect for a time due to the transitional arrangements.

---------- Post added at 10:43 ---------- Previous post was at 10:37 ----------

Indeed; the number of people feigning disability is tiny.

I've heard the likes of this from people over the years who then found themselves or a loved one in a state of disability- funnily enough their attitude changed overnight.

Re: Brexit
 

I think the point being made was that it was inappropriate to have a view that is based on a small sample (whether it be disability or migrants), as anecdote is not the singular form of data...

Re: Brexit
 

You really don't have a clue what you're talking about, or are you just randomly bringing up the subject of disability to troll the disabled people in this thread?

Re: Brexit
 

Far from it. However I’m not pretending that the small number of people I am aware is representative of the population as a whole. That’d be discriminatory to do so.

Re: Brexit
 

wouldn't it be better if the uk inacted the 3 month rules they declined to use so far

Re: Brexit
 

Precisely. Benefit fraud accounts for a fraction of one per cent the amounts paid.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Looking a bit rough these days:

Attachment 27658
:D

Re: Brexit
 

Pah, we'll just trade using WTO rules. Their tune will soon change when Ford and Chrysler come knocking at the door. They need us more than we need them, etc.

Re: Brexit
 

Seems the Govt are defying parliament and refusing to publish the full legal advice on Brexit. Wonder what they are trying to hide?
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&so...43408046240085

Re: Brexit
 

If it's based on legal fact then there is no need to publish it, as everything should already be known and certain. If it's "needed", then it must be yet another meaningless biased report based upon speculation.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

If I ask my wife for a divorce, and she tries to get the best deal for her and the kids, I don’t think she would be sneering at me asking for a divorce, she would be trying do what’s right for her.

If people disagree with us, they’re not sneering, just disagreeing - taking it personally is why things escalate.

Re: Brexit
 

Indeed, if we had any power in this negotiation we would be using it and any suggestion we shouldn’t try to get the best deal for Britain would be getting laughed out of town.

All trade deals require compromise, so if France has a starting point over fish and we want “frictionless trade” we have to ask ourselves what is most important?

Some of the adjectives getting thrown around are massively disproportionate. It’s cold hard capitalist maths.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

It’s a statement of reality that capitalist entities look after their own financial interests. Even where charity, or aid, comes into it this is often for PR or other political reasons and almost never some grand selfless act.

To expect a trading bloc of 27 nations to do anything other than strike the best deal they can for their own interests is simply delusional.

I’m sorry you feel that is sneering.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

I thought the analogy was quite good !

The EU could equally call us nasty for demanding rebates, opt outs, special treatment, sending Farage to shout abuse in the EU parliament etc etc. Quite frankly we've been a pain in the backside.

Even if we change our minds now, they might not want us back, don't blame them.

Re: Brexit
 

I don’t see how it can be bullying as we invited them to do this.

Re: Brexit
 

Chill mate. No one's sneering at the 52%, Sephiroth.

Re: Brexit
 

<removed>

Re: Brexit
 

Thats enough.

Stop with the silly personal digs at each other.

Re: Brexit
 

May's tour is getting the deal more popular with the public, the 'go with the deal' option has now taken over 'vote it down' in the polls: https://twitter.com/Survation/status...93937412677632

For the Deal: 41%
Against: 38%:
Don't Know: 22%.

It's leading with both Leave and Remain voters.

Narrow margins of course but a big step up from where it was initially.

I think May's calculation that actually no one cares about the detail they just like the idea of this being over is right.

Re: Brexit
 

Not the public she has to convince though is it ?

At the moment 413 MPs are going to vote against the deal, 226 for. Something big is going to have to change. Labour coming on board seems her only hope.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...y_to_clipboard

Re: Brexit
 

No but as said before it doesn't hurt her task if the public are behind it. MPs having to vote against their constituencies is awkward.

I think this might become especially true after what we assume will be the failed first vote. The idea is that the markets will react, no deal will loom and if the public react too then the pressure might be too much....

Re: Brexit
 

the public can't be bothered with details, or the fact this is BRINO, not Brexit at all and make us worse off than now. They just want a straight simplistic Brexit/No
Brexit, Xfactor type decision and it all be over sorted for Xmas and we live happily ever after...

tbh (and this is saying something!) think I trust MPs more !

Re: Brexit
 

Not sure l trust MP's Mr K more as our local MP says one thing and then does exactly the opposite when it comes to voting matters in parliament.

Re: Brexit
 

Yes, agreed.

We shouldn't forget that the withdrawal agreement is simply the stepping stone that we must take if we want pause to breathe before the trade deal is agreed. Macron may go on about fishing rights, but we have already stood up to him on this by not acceding to his demands in the withdrawal agreement, and will continue to do so.

It's this backstop that's the real problem and the silly thing is that it is not needed. I certainly think we should have insisted that it was made clear in the withdrawal agreement that another way of ditching the backstop would be for us to give, say, three months' notice that we are getting out of that arrangement, with all the consequences (such as no continuance of the withdrawal agreement) that may result. We should not be putting ourselves in a position in which the EU can tell us that we are stuck with it.

Re: Brexit
 

Philip Hammond been on the TV today, going on about the government analysis of a what a 'no deal' brexit will look like over the next 15 years, all very well he has new talent and can predict what the economy will look like in 15 years time, however, the Treasury routinely gets its annual forecasts wrong. So go figure....

....I have already have, it's business as usual from the Remainers in government, best described as project fear bollocks.

Re: Brexit
 

People were saying the prospect of no deal was 'Project Fear' during the referendum and now people are advocating for it...

Re: Brexit
 

Which people ?

Re: Brexit
 

It's just been on the news that every single scenario will lead to us being economically worse off than if we had remained as we were.

Whether correct or not, I wonder if this is the start of softening people up for a U turn to staying in the EU?

---------- Post added at 17:12 ---------- Previous post was at 17:08 ----------

But we haven't actually left yet, so I wouldn't have thought that they could stop us remaining in the EU.

Perhaps they could hold us to our notice of intention to leave??

Someone mentioned that if we decided to stay that we would lose our rebates, why would this be the case?

Re: Brexit
 

The Bank of England has now published its Brexit impact assessment.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/me...9D94CAB8735DFB

Re: Brexit
 

Don't forget den, it's "according to analysis of a worst case scenario by the Bank."

It does not mean that is what will actually happen.

Re: Brexit
 

Kind of Bexit related. Theresa May and the Holy Grail.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q40PWlzKdE4

Well worth a watch.

Re: Brexit
 

Quite enjoyable and more entertaining than all this project fear mk3 bull.

Re: Brexit
 

l am just posting it pip as this is the thread for Brexit and no doubt many posters on here will debate and discuss the merits of it and no doubt will disagree as usual.;)

Re: Brexit
 

It's clear we are going to slip off the cliff into a pile of bullshit ;)

Re: Brexit
 

As I’ve been predicting for weeks now. They are moving the language along inch by inch testing the public reaction. We’ve got “no Brexit at all” and Labour (the McDonnell side, not just the Starmer side) have inched to 2nd referendum if no General Election, something they weren’t so clear about just six weeks ago.

McDonnell is even clear: no deal should not be an option in said referendum. I wonder where the conversation will be in another six weeks.

Re: Brexit
 

Wait until the real blame game starts as then it will all out civil war in both parties.

Re: Brexit
 

Labour now trotting out a half hearted line that J McD didn’t really mean what he said. So we haven’t shifted policy. Honest.;)

Simultaneously allowing them to admit and deny a policy shift if it’s convenient. Exactly the same strategy as “no Brexit at all”. Trotted out often enough without much reaction, until it becomes an accepted line.

I’m unsure how the blame game will work. Literally none of them wants this situation.

Re: Brexit
 

It’s going to be interesting. If Labour get behind a second referendum they might get it.

However with May’s deal that’s it for both sides. Do Leavers bank leaving the EU but with closer ties than they would like? Do Remainers bank this deal because it’s not as bad as no deal?

Or do both sides vote it down to gamble on getting no deal or full Remain?

Re: Brexit
 

May's plan will not go through... than what happens who knows.... when the last person to leave please switch of the lights.

Re: Brexit
 

As much as I’d benefit financially from the turmoil, I sincerely hope it doesn’t come to no deal.

Re: Brexit
 

They'll no doubt disagree with the project fear headlines you chose to post rather than on the content of the report.

Re: Brexit
 

They were the only headlines l could quote and post as everything else was in the full report which is there to read for any member on here and then members can form their own rational opinion from the report..

Re: Brexit
 

The worst scenario is assuming we crash out without any contingency. That is quite possible albeit I think unlikely since I think both sides will find some sort of softer impact if worst comes to worse.

Re: Brexit
 

No Damien. The report is a worst case scenario of all the possibilities in the event of no deal.

It is not what no deal will bring but a possibility of what it could bring.

The only thing that is known is that there will be a short term financial hit in the event of a no deal brexit.
Anything else is based on supposition and assumption.

Re: Brexit
 

I said 'without contingency' I.E There are literally no accommodations to soften no deal.

Re: Brexit
 

Think you're just trying to convince yourself mate,... The effects of Brexit will last for generations, not too late to turn back but it would involve some admitting they were wrong, so it probably won't happen.

Re: Brexit
 

I was talking to three Dutch colleagues last night and they all said that the Deal is a bad one, and if it was them ( the Netherlands) in this position they’d prefer no deal.

Re: Brexit
 

There would be riots on the street and possibly civil war in any other country, if they were treated the same way as in the UK(especially England, eg where's our English Parliament).

Re: Brexit
 

Brexit will do no such thing.

Absolute rubbish. Democracy must prevail. We must leave the EU!!!

Forget the Brexit TV debate with May and Corbyn - I want to see one with Mervyn King true believer in Brexit and does not believe the bullshit Remainer forcasts or Project fear as it as known as and chicken prick, Mark Carney.

Re: Brexit
 

What if it does? I can understand people being optimistic but considering the dramatic change we're about to undertake I am not sure why people are so convinced that it won't go wrong.

Re: Brexit
 

Andrea Leadsom back Mays deal

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...eresa-May.html

Re: Brexit
 

No it's some Remainers who have convinced themselves that they want something to go wrong. They selfishly want Brexit to fail. Sod them I say.

I am prepared to put my country first, I voted to take us out of a dying corrupted Union that finally admitted it's true colours, wants to finally become a U.S.E with an Army and steal Sovereign power from it's member States, as per what Verhoftstadt said should happen.

True British Democracy must prevail, we must leave the EU. No stupid second referendums to stop the first - we must finally leave the EU.

Re: Brexit
 

As we get closer to leaving the EU states are showing their true colours towards the UK, I hope the places crumbles. Even Rome for its size eventually fell

Re: Brexit
 

Pesky Europeans telling us what to do with our sovereignty...

---------- Post added at 06:31 ---------- Previous post was at 06:26 ----------

I’m curious about this further use of emotive language. What have the EU done or said that couldn’t have been reasonably anticipated?

They are a trading bloc who naturally act in their collective interest. We have put ourselves in this situation with our nationalist bluster and lack of planning.

Re: Brexit
 

Remainers are worried something might go wrong. In my opinion it will impact the economy badly. However I know I might be wrong. It's the conviction you have that nothing will that I don't understand.

The scenario from the BoE is the 'worst case' but even a fraction of that could be really bad. 2008 was terrible obviously but there the economy 'only' shrank 4%, half of the BoE worse case scenario for Brexit, and if the UK has to go through anything nearly as bad as 2008 then that will be very bad. It's also why I question when people say that no deal will cause some pain but we'll get by, how much are the public willing to take? Because I think Boris Johnson and co are fooling themselves if they think the public will go for anything close to that.



The fact Remainers think this is bad for the country and want to stop it is also them putting their country first. People just disagree on what's best for it.

Re: Brexit
 

Brexit no deal on the table: UK will prepare for no deal IMMEDIATELY if vote lost


THERESA MAY has admitted that if her Brexit deal is voted down, immediate “practical steps” would be taken to prepare for a no-deal.


The admission took place in an evidence-giving Liaison committee in parliament this morning. Mrs May said: “The timetable is such that some people would need to take some practical steps in relation to no deal if parliament voted it down.” The Prime Minister also heavily implied that no planning was going on before the vote towards contingency options that would be put in place if her deal was voted down.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...ment-vote-lost

Re: Brexit
 

They should have prepared for no deal for 2 years shouldn't they ? a bit late now ! Not an option and everyone knows it, just the latest unsubtle scare tactic to get whimpy MPs to vote for the current deal.

Re: Brexit
 

I seem to recall the gov saying several months ago that they were preparing for a no deal scenario .

Re: Brexit
 

Actions often speak louder then words..

Re: Brexit
 

Brexit: 'No deal' planning is well under way, says minister

Contingency plans in case the UK has to leave the EU with no deal in place are "well under way", a minister has said.

Dominic Raab said while the UK had to "strive for the very best outcome" from Brexit negotiations, it had to "prepare for all eventualities".

The Sunday Telegraph claimed there were plans to "unlock" billions of pounds in the new year to prepare for a "no deal" Brexit, if talks make no progress.

Six months of Brexit negotiations have not led to a significant breakthrough.

This is from oct 2017

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41544588

Re: Brexit
 

Looking at the comments you've been making since joining this thread I've found them really condescending some kind of one-upmanship aimed towards those that wanted to vote out.

We have spain, macron , italy and the EU council themselves to name a few.

We talk about having our cake and eating it, well why not the EU are doing the exact same. It's not even about trade it's about the divorce it's what the EU want from the UK in order to leave. They are happy to take but return nothing in favour, Divorce doesn't work like that.