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jfman 18-09-2020 19:15
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36050712)
Then please explain the flaw in my logic.
I have. I think you’ve made assumptions that are incorrect.

Pretty much every sentence is based on assumptions you’ve made in the sentence that preceded it that are flawed, or at least not the only possible reasoning, claiming it is a logical conclusion when it is not.

I could equally claim that the first wave would be seven times as bad as the second using the “straightforward logic” it projected seven nightingale hospital compared to one for the second wave.

I think everyone would accept that conclusion is made in the absence of material facts.

1andrew1 18-09-2020 19:23
Re: Coronavirus
 
Has the herd immunity theory finally been buried? This article suggests to me it has "There is also evidence that antibody levels wane over two to three months..."
Quote:
Coronavirus: Just 6% of Britons have antibodies - and levels wane over two months, SAGE warns

Just 6% of the UK's population had COVID-19 antibodies at the start of September, the government's scientific advisers have warned.

Newly released documents from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said current levels of immunity were unlikely to mitigate the impact of "a significant winter resurgence".

There is also evidence that antibody levels wane over two to three months, according to minutes from a SAGE meeting on 3 September.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...warns-12075251

pip08456 18-09-2020 19:26
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050714)
I have. I think you’ve made assumptions that are incorrect.

Pretty much every sentence is based on assumptions you’ve made in the sentence that preceded it that are flawed, or at least not the only possible reasoning, claiming it is a logical conclusion when it is not.

I could equally claim that the first wave would be seven times as bad as the second using the “straightforward logic” it projected seven nightingale hospital compared to one for the second wave.

I think everyone would accept that conclusion is made in the absence of material facts.
The only assumption I can make from that reply is that it is a waste of time attempting to have a rational discussion with you.

Mad Max 18-09-2020 19:28
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050716)
Has the herd immunity theory finally been buried? This article suggests to me it has.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...warns-12075251
Where do they get the 6% figure from, Andrew?

Carth 18-09-2020 19:28
Re: Coronavirus
 
I don't think I honestly trust SAGE to be as accurate with their 'findings' as they should be.

If I wanted to be sceptical, I'd say their latest 'evidence' that antibody levels wane over two to three months is purely based on the 'quiet' gap between May and August ;)

Hom3r 18-09-2020 19:28
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36050615)
It might be worth remembering that not everyone has to wear a mask,some people are exempt, so perhaps instead of whining about who isn't wearing one people should mind their own business, just a thought :)

Try saying that when you have a family member who will never walk again thanks to Covid-19

nomadking 18-09-2020 19:34
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050716)
Has the herd immunity theory finally been buried? This article suggests to me it has.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...warns-12075251
:confused: Lockdown and other measures)eg shielding, social distancing) prevented herd immunity from happening.

Also as I've previously pointed out, antibodies decrease naturally after a few months. Instead the immune "memorizes" the antigen(eg virus) and is primed and ready, if it encounters it again.

1andrew1 18-09-2020 19:36
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36050718)
Where do they get the 6% figure from, Andrew?
Isn't it cited in the article? I don't have more insight than you on this.

Carth 18-09-2020 19:38
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050723)
Isn't it cited in the article? I don't have more insite than you on this.

Quote:
Just 6% of the UK's population had COVID-19 antibodies at the start of September, the government's scientific advisers have warned.
What % of the UK population have had a test?

Mad Max 18-09-2020 19:38
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050723)
Isn't it cited in the article? I don't have more insite than you on this.

I had a look through it but couldn't see how they arrived at this 6% figure.

jfman 18-09-2020 19:44
Re: Coronavirus
 
There was a link, possibly from pip a couple of pages back on T cell response which may be a bigger part of the immune response.

That said there’s no guarantee of lasting immunity in the population at all. Flus for example that are endemic some are susceptible to year on year. So for herd immunity to be the answer you’d have to infect almost everyone at once. Which defeats the point of immunity surely.

1andrew1 18-09-2020 19:53
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36050725)
I had a look through it but couldn't see how they arrived at this 6% figure.
It seems to all go back to SAGE. You could try on their website. https://www.gov.uk/government/collec...porting-papers

Sephiroth 18-09-2020 19:59
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36050705)
The logic is simple. During the onset of corona virus the Government set up 5 "Nightingale" units to look after the overflow from NHS hopitals during the epidemic, there were also 2 others set up slightly later.

The only unit to be used was the London one which had 200 full time staff for an eventual 51 patients during the time it was in operation. It then like the other 6 sites were mothballed but not decommissioned just in case.

So, following logic, if the Birmingham Nightingale unit is to be brought out of mothballing and staffed then it follows that it is considered the number of cases will be larger then when the covid epidemic began.

ERGO the alleged second wave will be larger than the first.
Pip,

jfman is probably right to question your logic. The B'ham Nightingale might well have been brought out of mothballing as a matter of prudence calculated on the local R rate but taking also into account that they want regular hospitals to do regular stuff. i.e. Covid to go to Nightingale.

There is nothing inherent in all this to indicate the scale of the second wave, if it happens.

You did say "will" rather than "might".

1andrew1 18-09-2020 20:14
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36050729)
Pip,

jfman is probably right to question your logic. The B'ham Nightingale might well have been brought out of mothballing as a matter of prudence calculated on the local R rate but taking also into account that they want regular hospitals to do regular stuff. i.e. Covid to go to Nightingale.

There is nothing inherent in all this to indicate the scale of the second wave, if it happens.

You did say "will" rather than "might".
Agreed except I would remove the "probably". ;)

Pierre 18-09-2020 20:23
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050716)
Has the herd immunity theory finally been buried? This article suggests to me it has "There is also evidence that antibody levels wane over two to three months..."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...warns-12075251
They have no way of knowing that unless they have tested everyone, and they are also totally ignoring T-cell immunity response.

Sorry but I call bollocks.


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