Cable Forum - Coronavirus

A statistically relevant rise in cases and hospitalisations that peaks then comes back down again. So if you were to plot them on a graph you could spot it because it looks like a wave.

Pierre

10-06-2021 23:47

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36082531)

A statistically relevant rise in cases and hospitalisations that peaks then comes back down again. So if you were to plot them on a graph you could spot it because it looks like a wave.

No sign of that then yet

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Hugh	11-06-2021 00:39

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36082538)

No sign of that then yet

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

tbf, you predicted in November there wouldn’t be a second wave…

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054092)

So you’ve written off the economy? What’s next then?

In regards to science, there is no science that shows anything other that lockdowns do nothing but delay the spread of the virus, that’s all.

Things are on the up, but still compared to 6 months ago, we’re nowhere near.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

It was predicated, and I posted it on here, that there would be no “second wave” on an equal magnitude to the first, but that there would be an initial wave followed by several Ripples.

This is where we are.

Where as, in fact…

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...econd-23429602

Quote:

Deaths in the second wave of the UK's Covid-19 pandemic have now overtaken the number from the first wave, analysis of official figures show.

The latest provisional data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows a total of 117,378 deaths had occurred in the UK by January 22, where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.

Of these, 57,701 deaths occurred between the beginning of the UK's pandemic in spring of last year and August.

Since then, 59,677 Covid-19 deaths have been recorded, Sky News reports.

The new figures show more than 1,000 Covid-19 deaths occurred each day for 14 days in a row in the UK in January this year.

1andrew1

11-06-2021 10:03

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36082542)

tbf, you predicted in November there wouldn’t be a second wave…

Where as, in fact…

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...econd-23429602

When it comes to predictions about restrictions, jfman is where I would place my money. Others seem to predict what they want to hear as oppose to what an evidence-based decision is likely to be. Didn't someone on here predict that the schools would never re-open for just a day or two, jfman said that would happen and they did open for a day or two before closing again!

Anyway, Sky News has an interesting article discussing the issues behind any further easing of restrictions. COVID-19: Could the Delta variant delay the final step on PM's roadmap?

jonbxx

11-06-2021 10:35

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36082538)

No sign of that then yet

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Mmm, I think you might be looking at nationwide data there so the effect is small. If you look where there are most cases - the North West (filter the 'Cases by area (last 7 days)' by region) there is definitely an uptick in hospitalisations and patients on ventilators (link)

Doesn't look like deaths are going up but it's not clear if this is just lagging or there won't be any. It's guesswork right now...

GrimUpNorth

11-06-2021 10:57

Re: Coronavirus

Pinderfields in Wakefield, this time last week had 8 patients with Covid now there're 18 patients and 1 in ICU. With the lag between infection and hospitalisation, it's hard to say if it's just a blip or a sign of something more serious to come. I know the announcement is due on Monday re the 21st but think it would be wise to hold off any decision for another week or two.

Sephiroth

11-06-2021 11:53

Re: Coronavirus

The data lag (hospitalisation) in the public figures is disconcerting.

But we do know from ancillary reports that there is rising pressure in hotspot hospitals and that the darkened areas on the UK map appear to be spreading outwards.

It would thus be most prudent to extend current status for two weeks at a time until there is certainty of wider public risk - not least to get 2nd does up past the 70% mark or whatever is the sound number.

Taf	11-06-2021 15:05

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36082538)

No sign of that then yet

Try this one https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

---------- Post added at 14:05 ---------- Previous post was at 13:59 ----------

A large group of "south asian" gentlemen got off a "Bolton Minibus" at the entrance to the local supermarket about an hour ago.

I had to wait a few minutes whilst they argued with a security guard as they would not wear masks.

Denied access. Very loud and abusive. But they decided it was hopeless, so they boarded and left. Bolton to Cardiff is a long way to go to do some shopping?

Taf	11-06-2021 15:13

Re: Coronavirus

1 Attachment(s)

pip08456

11-06-2021 15:22

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36082576)

Sorry Taf not one of the graphs on that link show a "wave".

Damien

11-06-2021 15:48

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36082579)

Sorry Taf not one of the graphs on that link show a "wave".

Obviously, by the time you see the wave it's too late. What people are worried about is if the increase in cases we're seeing becomes a wave, it starts to build very fast. Remember how quick the winter wave came on.

papa smurf

11-06-2021 15:53

Re: Coronavirus

When are they rolling out the what if vaccine.

jfman

11-06-2021 17:03

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36082582)

When are they rolling out the what if vaccine.

The what if vaccine is the 40+ year olds. Now that sufficient supplies exist we can give the good ones to the weans ;)

Pierre

11-06-2021 17:07

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36082542)

tbf, you predicted in November there wouldn’t be a second wave…

Where as, in fact…

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...econd-23429602

Correct, but to be clear I didn't predict anything, as I'm not a scientist but I did repeat what a scientist had predicted and at the time I posted it, it was panning out that way. Cases had started to come down, look at any graph will show you that. Then the Kent Variant appeared and cases then sky rocketed.

---------- Post added at 16:07 ---------- Previous post was at 16:05 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36082552)

Yes that was me, but again, that was not a "prediction". I just said I couldn't believe that they would open for just one day and that it would be madness if they opened for just one day.

I just underestimated the madness.

But no doubt our resident archivist will advise.