Cable Forum - Britain outside the EU

What was never explained clearly in the run up to the referendum was that even if we did get full free trade deals with the USA, India and China combined that would not make up for the volume and value of trade we were likely to lose with the EU under most Brexit scenarios, apart from remaining members of the EEA.

To get a trade deal with the USA before the next GE would have been a political boost in the headlines for the Conservatives, but a cold hard look at its worth in terms of trade and GDP would have dampened their Brexit fervour.

Sephiroth

19-12-2023 09:29

Re: Britain outside the EU

I don't know what's so important about a trade deal with the USA.
We seem to trade OK where it matters and it would be hard going to negotiate anything of especial value to us.

---------- Post added at 09:29 ---------- Previous post was at 09:24 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by roughbeast (Post 36166832)

There's another lunge at Brexit. When there is a wrench like Brexit, it will take several years to reach an equal or improved stage as Business adjusts and innovates.

Brexit wasn't about trade. Indeed, had the EU not gone politically mad with their 'ever closer union' ideology, and stuck to the EEC scheme, we'd still be in.

Brexit was about sovereignty and nothing else.

1andrew1

19-12-2023 09:52

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166834)

I don't know what's so important about a trade deal with the USA.
We seem to trade OK where it matters and it would be hard going to negotiate anything of especial value to us

That and the India trade deal was all that people like Old Boy talked about as the means to recover our ongoing GDP reduction. The USA trade deal was also in the 2019 conservative Manifesto.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166834)

There's another lunge at Brexit. When there is a wrench like Brexit, it will take several years to reach an equal or improved stage as Business adjusts and innovates.

"Give us a little more time guv, I'll get this hole filled. Just need another brew." Yeah, right.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166834)

Brexit wasn't about trade. Indeed, had the EU not gone politically mad with their 'ever closer union' ideology, and stuck to the EEC scheme, we'd still be in.

Brexit was about sovereignty and nothing else.

That bus slogan was literally all about money and not sovereignty. You're trying to move the goalposts as it has not delivered financially.

Sephiroth

19-12-2023 10:13

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36166836)

That and the India trade deal was all that people like Old Boy talked about as the means to recover our ongoing GDP reduction. The USA trade deal was also in the 2019 conservative Manifesto.

"Give us a little more time guv, I'll get this hole filled. Just need another brew." Yeah, right.

That bus slogan was literally all about money and not sovereignty. You're trying to move the goalposts as it has not delivered financially.

Quote:

That and the India trade deal was all that people like Old Boy talked about as the means to recover our ongoing GDP reduction. The USA trade deal was also in the 2019 conservative Manifesto.

So what to all the above. Realists, like me, understood that there will be a dip. OB doesn't matter and the 2019 Tory Manifesto was Boris blather. The reality is that Brexit was about sovereignty.

Quote:

"Give us a little more time guv, I'll get this hole filled. Just need another brew." Yeah, right.

You poo-poo a perfectly valid remark of mine. Covid didn't help and it needs time simply because business has to build back - in the face of government stupidity. That doesn't mean it was wrong to leave the EU and its tendency to do what Germany & France want.

Quote:

That bus slogan was literally all about money and not sovereignty. You're trying to move the goalposts as it has not delivered financially.

Again, noting of substance from you to invalidate the will of 52% of the voters. The bus slogan had little to do with people's reasons for Brexit but anyway, the £350 million, to be specific, has been added to the NHS budget.

1andrew1

19-12-2023 11:14

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166837)

So what to all the above. Realists, like me, understood that there will be a dip. OB doesn't matter and the 2019 Tory Manifesto was Boris blather. The reality is that Brexit was about sovereignty.

Realists accept that it has lead to a long-term reduction in UK GDP of at least 4% and weakens our global influence. I don't think you're quite there yet.

Sephiroth

19-12-2023 11:37

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36166840)

Realists accept that it has lead to a long-term reduction in UK GDP of at least 4% and weakens our global influence. I don't think you're quite there yet.

Andrew, it's you who refuses to get it.

"Weakens our global influence": What global influence have we had since the Suez crisis in 1956? Very little because were were in debt to the USA and the other two big players, Russia and China, spit on us. We do have nuclear weaponry, but that is defensive and gives us little influence.

Under the EU, we barely had influence within that.

"Reduction of GDP by 4%": It'll grow again for the reasons I've given many times. British business will see to that.

1andrew1

19-12-2023 11:49

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166841)

"Reduction of GDP by 4%": It'll grow again for the reasons I've given many times. British business will see to that.

Unfortunately, "It has to therefore it will" doesn't tick most realistic people's boxes as an economic theory.

Sephiroth

19-12-2023 11:53

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36166842)

Unfortunately, "It has to therefore it will" doesn't tick most realistic people's boxes as an economic theory.

Again, you're busy with the rhetoric. I expect the UK's GDP to grow and recover because that is how capitalism works in an enterprising country. The only shackle that needs to be released is the high level of corporate taxation.

Hugh	19-12-2023 12:39

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166843)

Always amusing when someone accuses someone of a behaviour, then immediately follows it with the same alleged behaviour…

Sephiroth

19-12-2023 12:41

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36166845)

Always amusing when someone accuses someone of a behaviour, then immediately follows it with the same alleged behaviour…

Mine isn't rhetoric.

TheDaddy

19-12-2023 12:54

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166841)

We had a hell of a lot of influence, countries might not have liked us but they respected us and that went down the toilet with our decision to invade Iraq and has kept going further down the cesspit ever since

Hugh	19-12-2023 12:54

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166846)

Mine isn't rhetoric.

https://media.tenor.com/ra_h-El7pRgA...e-rhetoric.gif

ianch99

19-12-2023 15:04

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166846)

Mine isn't rhetoric.

True, it is actually fantasy

---------- Post added at 15:04 ---------- Previous post was at 14:58 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166837)

So what to all the above. Realists, like me, understood that there will be a dip. OB doesn't matter and the 2019 Tory Manifesto was Boris blather. The reality is that Brexit was about sovereignty.

Said the true fantasy revisionist. I am sure you will provide us with many posts from you, and others, clearly forecasting the economic damage that was "always understood".

For those, like you, who only really care about dogma then yes, it was always going to be just about "sovereignty" or rather the illusory benefits thereof.

1andrew1

19-12-2023 20:57

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36166843)

he only shackle that needs to be released is the high level of corporate taxation.

The City knows that's an unworkable fantasy and Truss's short stay in power should demonstrate this to all but her deluded followers.

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