roughbeast |
04-12-2023 21:47 |
Re: Britain outside the EU
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
(Post 36064472)
So, now we have left the European Union. What now? How do we navigate our way ahead? How do we make the decision of the electorate work in practice?
Frankly, I am looking forward to making deals with all these other trading blocs around the world that are purely arrangements about trade and that don’t try to force you into some sort of political union.
Does anyone have any views on what our priorities should be? Personally, I think the next big deal should be with the US, and we need to bring in those free ports that the PM referred to a few months ago as soon as possible.
Should our farmers be gearing up to produce more now that we are free of the wasteful CAP? Which new markets should we be exploiting after the US?
So many questions...so many opportunities.
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I have never been clear on what Brexit meant. Before the vote we were sold a variety of options. Farage tried to tempt wavering Leavers with a Norway-style Brexit, others with a customs union Brexit, or just have us as members of the EEA, keeping us effectively in the Single Market. There was some talk about a No Deal Brexit with us being on the really complex WTO rules and trade tariffs. So, people casted their vote to Remain or Leave. Those who voted Leave had a number of possible Brexits in mind, but we are told that cutting immigration was a driving force. (That went well! :erm:) As it turned out, as soon as Leave won, folk like Farage, Richard Tice and Johnson insisted that Leave Means Leave and that meant 'No Deal'
What has never been explained to me by any Leaver, least of all Farage, Tice and Johnson is what a No Deal Brexit would look like in terms of the NI border, the GFA and what international free trade deals we would have to replace the loss in EU trade we would have if we were to be on WTO trade tariffs. I picked up from Farage and Rees-Mogg that they thought the EU would be so desperate for trade with us they would be clamouring to do a free-trade deal with us asap and that we would be able to call the shots. Moggy explained after the vote that we might not see the full Brexit benefit for 50 years after an initial rough ride. I wish he had said that before the vote.
As it turned out, May then Johnson did deals that pleased nobody. Johnson won an election on the basis of getting Brexit done and then proceeded to do a hard Brexit deal, with the UK as a third country, in an all out attempt to be rid of EU rules we had helped make in better days. The EU, contrary to Leave expectations, played hard ball. It turns out, based on the existing trade set up with the EU and other economies that we stand to lose 5% GDP annually over the next 15 years. This doesn't take into account the delayed introduction of full trade regulations that are now due in the spring. Neither does it take into account possible trade deals with the USA and India, although these are unlikely to replace even 1% of trade we have already lost with the EU. It also turns out that universally Johnson's deal is thought to be a bit of a dog's breakfast. Farage hates it as do farmers, fishermen and the owners of SME's across the land.
So, help me guys, what does a proper Brexit look like? How would a good Brexit turn out in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years or Moggy's 50 years?
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