Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I bet most of them love a good curry.


Seriously, this is absolutely the kind of migration we need.


India has a lot of highly skilled labour, they get a pittance for it over there, with our minimum wage they would get a lot more for doing the same job, at the same time, they fill vacancies we need filled and don't have the staff.


Let's not forget if we recruit migrant nurses and doctors from India or elsewhere they will no doubt do an excellent job in a sector which is grossly understaffed, solves plenty of issues there.


Some people are just blinkered with the idea of migration and think it's all about boats coming over the channel full of people wanting to sponge off our welfare system. It totally isn't. We don't need that at all but people wanting to come here, contribute to our society and work, should always be encouraged.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Doing the same job here they have the same costs of living as people living here. I don’t see how this is any different from driving down the wages of British people by importing cheap labour instead of allowing market forces to drive wages up.

I fail to see the benefit over upskilling our own workforce.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Because that takes time!

Yes, ideally we should.


But let's not forget we have shortages now, especially in key sectors such as nursing, HGV driving, etc, mostly they have unfavourable conditions and require some skill to do.


Nursing is now graduate entry, has been for some years; even if right now the gov decided to do a massive drive to get more nurses, it'd take about 4 years to have a fresh, inexperienced group of staff ready to start. No good if we need them now. Even then once they're out there, they are working demanding 12hr shifts (I'd definitely make this 3 8hr shifts not 2 12 hr ones) in not exactly comfortable conditions so not sure why a lot would.


Likewise HGV drivers, the pay is cack, the working conditions are not much better (if you need the loo and there's no services, but have to make your schedule which is timed to the second) even when you've trained...


Most people won't do it, better for them to get their UC and watch sky tv all day...

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

If people won’t do jobs for the wages offered then employers should increase wages. That’s supply and demand. The core of capitalism.

If the businesses no longer have a profitable model paying above poverty wages then they should go to the wall, and stop skewing the markets with their existence by offering goods/services at rates below what the market can bear.

Importing labour from the developing world undermines the high wage, high skill economy we have been promised.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yay!

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The instincts of the Brexit Supporters who are now running the Government never seemed to be to curb immigration even if they used it in their campaign. Boris Johnson has rarely been against immigration and has spoken up for it in previous political lives, i.e Mayor of London.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

My God, jfman - said like a true Brexiteer! I am happy to agree with you!

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It's an electoral dilemma. The instincts of the government are likely in favour of immigration but I suspect their seats (and MPs) in the Red Wall are not. It will also be interesting to see how Farage approaches this.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Higher wages simply increases costs to the customer, no gain really apart from more tax paid.
£8 for a bread loaf, £6-50 for a bottle of milk, £3 for a bag of crisps, and £17 for a BLT might not be far away :D

Everyone seems happy to buy cheap tat from China though

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Well it’s only an economic theory unless you’ve a Government willing to deliver it.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Sounds like those people didn't know what they were voting for, still I'm sure they'll be delighted with the exchange of white Christian for darker Hindu neighbours

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

This government doesn't truly support Brexit beyond electioneering which is why they are screwing everything up.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Main reason they're screwing things up is that they seem to have one rule for themselves and another for everyone else: VIP lane for mates' PPE and parties at Central Office and No. 10 whilst telling us no gatherings.

Most of the public are probably indifferent as to how well they're handling Brexit unless they're directly affected.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It's not a dilemma except in relation to how to deal with the UK's boat people.

It is a myth to say that the government is against immigration - it is not. It is against uncontrolled immigration - a little point of detail most people on the left of politics try to cover over.

There are some occupations where it is virtually impossible to recruit from within the UK. What the government is trying to encourage is ensuring that employers try harder to attract UK people by offering training and more money first. Only when all reasonable measures fail will the government allow recruitment from abroad.

It is cheap foreign labour that has had the impact of depressing wages and creating unemployment in this country.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Then they should raise wages. There’s no lack of training or willpower that money can’t resolve.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

That’s the underlying Brexit premise.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

And this is the underlying Brexit reality.

https://www.ft.com/content/e8f45dc9-...2-48ebb623a5a6

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

That’s not reality - it’s an economist’s prediction. There’s a significant difference.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The reality is that it's an opinion from a survey of nearly 100 economists drawn from a wide range of organisations including PwC, Chatham House and Royal London Asset Management.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

That still makes it an opinion, not fact ;)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yes, we've seen predictions of doom on our economy before...and look what happened!

They are right to talk about the 'economic mirage' caused by the pandemic, but I think they are unduly pessimistic about the future.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Their predictions have a basis to them. Increase trade barriers and costs, and the economy suffers.

Throughout 2022, we will be increasing checks on goods imported from the EU at UK government-run sites such as Sevington and, where space permits, at the ports themselves.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

That's great news no matter what your view of Brexit.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I'd glad the Telegraph is so well regarded around here:

Time is running out to prove Brexit is not a historic failure

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The problem with these forecasts, as I have said before, is that they emphasise the debit side and are unable to calculate precisely the credit side (as it is the future, and dependent on business decisions).

This is why they are so pessimistic. You can calculate what you have lost, but not what can be gained through new opportunities. Until you know what the private sector plans, that is.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

They are not "pessimistic", they are attempting to be realistic with the information they have - just because it doesn’t match your unbridled optimism (which isn’t even based on any data, just "opportunities"), doesn’t make it pessimistic.

Isn’t the debit side in the future, and dependent on business solutions?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

They look at the whole picture. This is macro economics, not micro economics.

You seem unable to accept there is an economic cost to increased sovereignty. The two are a trade-off, like a see-saw. When one end is up, the other end is down.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Can you give me an example of what you mean by business getting there? We're talking about the next 12 months.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Too many variables Andrew

In the next 12 months the EU could start to collapse, the Chinese economy could tank, the USA could be hit by riots and social unrest, Russia could invade . . well anybody I guess, and Covid could mutate into the biggest killer since the 'dinosaur' meteor strike. :p:

Of course we can speculate, amass reams of data to analyse, and throw statistical charts all over . . but it's just guesswork isn't it . . the same guesswork as Brexit being as bad as some say :D

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The timescale was set when the FT asked nearly 100 economists how the UK economy would perform in 2022. Old Boy erroneously suggested that their analysis only included the negative impacts of Brexit and not the positive ones.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

If you actually read the article, rather than just nay-saying it because it doesn’t 100% support your "opportunities" mantra, you would have seen it is not all gloom and doom (there was some…).

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

He said the economists were unduly pessimistic about the future. The future the economists were talking about was 2022.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Remainers whose arguments in the main have been in support of British business and the challenges they now face and your post was about as helpful as Truss, Raab, Patel and krazy Kwarteng"s crap book where they called the British work force lazy, that's how much faith they have in British business

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Johnson's government is to some extent a red Conservative one. Wage inflation is an official policy in all but name. The new state aid and takeover regulations encourage more government intervention. More train operating companies (Southeastern, Northern Rail) have been nationalised as has an energy supplier (Bulb) and a defence manufacturer (Sheffield Forgemasters).

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

A fascinating observation probably worth discussing in its own right.

You could argue that a generation ago, Labour would have handled all of the above after a period of laissez-faire Tory government that might have taken things a bit too far. But Labour is presently so utterly useless that we’re entering year 17 of at least a 19-year spell of Tory government that is still more likely than not to go on to 24 years, given their present majority and Labour’s extremely soft, mid-term poll lead.

So it’s up to the Tories to occupy both ends of the pendulum swing.

(If you want to debate this further please start a new thread for it).

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

How do you propose to quantify future business decisions which have not yet been made? These forecasts are always pessimistic because we can quantify what we are losing, but not what we are gaining. It’s like trying to nail a jelly to the wall.

The figures are pessimistic obviously because at this stage, we only know what we are losing without being able to calculate how we are benefiting. So the picture looks bleak.

Once businesses come up with ways in which they will take the new opportunities made available, you can start to put figures to those decisions - but not before.

It will take time to get anything like an accurate picture in terms of whether or not Brexit has been a success.

---------- Post added at 20:47 ---------- Previous post was at 20:45 ----------

You’ve completely missed the point, Andrew. Of course they know the cost. But they don’t know the gains. There’s no point in concentrating on one side of the equation without knowing the other.

Surely, this is obvious.

---------- Post added at 20:54 ---------- Previous post was at 20:47 ----------

I pointed out the problems with forecasting generally, Andrew. The same arguments are there for the short term, but obviously these are magnified significantly for long term projections.

I certainly agree that we will not have made up for the losses in the next year, but over the medium term, this will become much clearer.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

They look at both sides of the equation. You've been informed of this fact many, many times. Surely this is obvious?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

And indeed those decisions in a regulatory environment unknown. For once OB I agree with you. It’s almost impossible to quantify in any meaningful way the entirely hypothetical benefits of leaving the EU on the basis of an unknown regulatory environment.

You can have hope. But it is just that.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

My point is that they don’t have a very significant part of the information. The figures are incomplete.

I have mentioned this fact many, many times.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

What information is going to have a substantial impact in the next 12 months?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Well, my point is, of course, that this is the known unknown. It would be more honest to point out what we do know, and draw attention to what is needed to redress the balance.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Think you've hit the nail on the head there. You're quick to say it's all negative so not worth the paper it's written on but not so quick to tell people what is (by your own admission above) needed to redress the balance. Also, have you considered that the experts may have underestimated the negative because there could be something coming that they haven't considered?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

So like it was done in the 2016 campaign then? :dunce:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

We're not landing on Mars for the first time or something, Old Boy. There may well be some tinkering around the edges on financial services like Solvency II but nothing that's going to make a noticeable difference to GDP.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I'll gladly pick up on "the first time" as opposed to "the only time"

Definite signs of promise there :D

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

We've ported over all the rules and most of the trade deals. Not much can change in a year. What changes can the UK make in a year that will make a dent in the 4% drop in GDP?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Around 50 years, according to Rees-Mogg…

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b0de86f48e3566

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The context is he feels the economists' predictions for one year are too negative. They're not predicting the next 100 years, just the next year.

I'm looking for something more substantial than "hope" to back up his hypothesis. Rocket science this question ain't.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yes, I remember so many Leave voters mentioning that…

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I don't remember hearing that, in fact I heard more people saying they were voting to leave the ECHR :erm:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Weird, as that was never on the table.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yup - couldn’t go to the pub or the supermarket without someone bending your ear about their macro-future…

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Indeed, which neatly proves my point, was on here that was said to incidentally

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

"Mange tout Rodders, Mange tout" :D

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Doesn't seem to be relevant for this thread. It's either an internal French or EU matter. Nothing to do with Britain.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Some good news. I'm not sure what the situation is with associated brands like GiffGaff and Tesco Mobile.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59930934

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

He doesn't label it a Brexit triumph, just welcomes it.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/sta...72384679387136

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The French are just desperately upset that their language is becoming less and less relevant internationally

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Well for 2022 at least. There is no commitment beyond that.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

English is not controlled by the UK, so no it has nothing to do with us as who uses it.

The UK's decision was to leave the EU and have no part in their decisions.

So what France and the EU do about their internal language choices is now nothing to do with us.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

He's welcomes the news that something we had across most (all??) networks before Brexit is remaining for now on one network. So it turns out one of the "Brexit benefits" are when things we had as EU members aren't removed. Sounds like a win to me ;).

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

But it does seem to be an internal EU matter that's being debated, not one that affects us any more.

In fairness Seph, I'm sure there's a little bit of you that would have liked to remain in the EU if only to argue with the French more. ;)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

You are delusional. France has always treated its language as a great symbol of the nation and a great gift to the world. That the rest of the world doesn’t see things the same way is why France periodically does stuff like this. It also makes laws mandating certain percentages of French-language music on the radio and the like.

The only connection here with our exit from the EU is that it reduces the number of English speakers within the bloc and gives the French an excuse to argue for greater prominence for French language and less for English. They are however quietly playing down the fact that English, while no longer a major first language of the EU, remains by far the biggest second language.

This however has absolutely stuff-all to do with any French desire to punish us for leaving the EU. It is simply the sort of thing they like doing anyway.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Virgin increase prices for all customers . . . boo hiss, I'm leaving

Virgin (O2) remove roaming charges for those customers who travel abroad . . whoohoo great, I'm in


:D

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

As a family we were sitting down to dinner and discussing this issue and came up with a brilliant situation that follows the vote in the referendum but also solves a lot of the issues with being outside the EU. We invite other nations to join us in Greater Britain, yes rather than us join them, they can join us. We can put limitations on centralising power so each nation can keep their own currency, maintain their borders/immigration. Laws can be adapted to suit situations. Pound Stirling could be used as a common tax free currency if desired. As a constitutional monarchy there is no federal nonsense. We could have national leaders gather as needed to work out areas of common interest. All this just seems so logical, so fair, so British. Sorts out the NI problem, no future problems with the Celtic nations wanting to split off and cause border issues there. We understand the smaller nations too. I'm sure the French would object but they always do, they can do what they always do and have another revolution. The Germans could be a problem but they are more similar to us than many others so that could be negotiated.


What do others think? Remainers can buy French cars and German cheese as before, can employ Eastern European nannies and visit their holiday homes in Poland. Leavers are still happy as we really have left and are standing up for us but welcoming others on our terms.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Well you could get French cheese and German cars but who in their right mind would do it that way round?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It needs a catchy title like British Emp.......... oh no forget that.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I thought for a few seconds you were serious, nice work :)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Me too, especially the bit about pound Stirling, is that the new Scottish currency? :D

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

That'll be the iou;)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The Con:

Brexit 'will enhance' UK wildlife laws - Gove

The Reality:

The Government has again put bees at risk by permitting the use of the banned pesticide thiamethoxam on sugar beet in England in 2022.

Just a reminder,

SWEET! Brexit-supporting Tate & Lyle Sugars receives government support

If only we could of known ...

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Not sure you’ve proved your case.

The initial pledge is with regards to the overall regulatory framework. The recent approval is for emergency use, not regulatory change. As we do not live in a technocracy it is correct for minsters to make a broad assessment of needs when making decisions. Advisers advise, they do not decide and they do not govern.

Further - a lot of single market regulation is actually pretty bare faced protectionism. Prior to our being in the EU we imported most of our sugar from the Caribbean. Domestic beet production was, and still is, modest in size. Tariffs on sugar import were mainly to benefit the major European producers who are, surprise surprise, Germany and France. These are empirical facts, and it’s bonkers to insinuate that David Davies’ motivation for supporting Brexit was to benefit his old employer. It’s quite plausible however that his prior industry experience has given him a particular view on the pros and cons of EU market protectionism.

Finally - with UK domestic beet producers no longer guaranteed tariff protection against cane imports in the long term, emergency pesticide measures to combat a viral infection would seem to be a good thing.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Just looks like he's using emergency regulation to get round the commitment not to reduce environmental protection.

Certainly fails the man-on-the- Clapham-omnibus test even if it doesn't fail the test of keen Brexiters.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

That's for historical and colonial reasons though, rather than the most effective current market to source from.

---------- Post added at 12:49 ---------- Previous post was at 12:47 ----------

I thought that one of the arguments for Brexit was to help our domestic producers? All of the current post-Brexit activity seems more to about swapping one import market for another and still not developing our internal industries.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Tate and Lyle is a domestic producer of refined sugar products. Their raw material is imported but then that’s not unusual for British manufacturers. Brexit has given us the freedom to decide whether British manufacturers should be able to source their raw materials on the world market or if they should be forced via tariffs to source domestically.

I’m not advocating a return to Empire preference, but if the product is available, well priced and useful to British manufacturers we must think very carefully about continuing with an EU tariff regime that was never designed to weigh up the pros and cons for the British economy.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Depends what you mean by domestic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10472258
And it seems that was due to competition - although I do appreciate there is no context around the tariffs at the time

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Au contraire - 2 years is a wholly inadequate data set in order to prove your assertion. It ‘fails’ the test only in the mind of keen remainers who are still so triggered by Brexit they have a near pathological need to keep trawling the internet looking for proof they were right.

---------- Post added at 13:16 ---------- Previous post was at 13:13 ----------

In 2010, they were firmly under the influence of EU tariffs which were largely responsible for beet producers’ ability to undercut them. Cane and beet refining processes aren’t identical and you can’t simply feed different raw materials into the same factory set up. The raw commodity prices were effectively handing a built-in competitive advantage to manufacturers set up to use beet.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I'm not sure it's Remainers who are getting triggered into defending this sticky situation. ;)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think you don’t understand what ‘triggered’ means.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Tate & Lyle is now part of US-based sugar company ASR but still has a large refinery in London.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Meanwhile back in the real world ..

The Con

PM pledges to defend UK farming standards in trade talks

Reality:

RSPCA raises serious concerns over animal welfare and climate change as full Australia trade deal is signed

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2022/01/5.jpg