Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

As Sky is already making a profit, it is difficult to understand why you think that Amazon can't do the same. I think this is just your mindset and no argument will ever shift you from it accept 'oh, look what just happened!').

You seem to have ignored the fact that the Premiership football matches are mighty popular in some other parts of the world (eg India),as is cricket. There is definitely a global sports market to be tapped into here, which you don't seem to appreciate.

Take off your blinkers, jfman, and just look at the opportunities out there. Look at the bigger picture and you will see further than the end of your nose, which is not that interesting really. Although I suppose a really big nose is hard to ignore. Do you have a big nose?

If so, sorry, no offense. :D :bump:

---------- Post added at 20:23 ---------- Previous post was at 20:21 ----------

It will be here on Monday.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

Sky make profit out of selling a package - unless Amazon seek to exactly mimic the package (at significant cost) I think you're being optimistic about how many subscribers they'll get. Indeed - I share my optimism levels with Amazon who didn't make any meaningful bid in the first round auction last time around.

If you really think millions of Indians are sitting these making pay-tv choices off the back of carrying the Premiership I think you'll be quite surprised. For the realistic valuations of minority sports see the failure of Eleven Sports and La Liga. While the Premier League may be more popular worldwide than La Liga, you are still talking about in the tens/hundreds of thousands in most countries.

Little surprise, in the absence of any coherent argument, you've just resorted to being out and out offensive.

FYI I think it's quite clear I was disputing the definition of 'summer' jovially with denphone not commenting on the expected arrival date.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

Which is why if it ever became possible for global rights to be purchased as one package by a streamer, the PL would want a hefty load of cash for those rights.

---------- Post added at 21:08 ---------- Previous post was at 21:05 ----------

As I provided on that linked article the other day, Amazon said themselves they are just testing the waters at the moment.

The fact that they have now got other sports onto their platform too, would at least, would you not agree, that they are serious about sports and could go head-to-head with Sky over rights in the future, if they chose to do so?

---------- Post added at 21:12 ---------- Previous post was at 21:08 ----------

Agree.

Sky has 10 million+ pay tv subscribers, Amazon has 200+ million prime customers and a lot more who purchase stuff on their site.

---------- Post added at 21:14 ---------- Previous post was at 21:12 ----------

I don't know if it would be Amazon, but I agree that LG is a potential takeover target and could be a "cheap" way to obtain those rights.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

There's serious and there's £5bn (or near £10bn inc. overseas rights) over three years serious. If they could come up with a viable business model for it that made profit, of course they'd bid, they'd be mad not to. As would Liberty, as would Netflix, as would anyone.

What's the model though?

Amazon Prime subscriptions are reported to be 6 million in the UK, out of 25 million homes. Is the most cost effective way for that to reach 100% going to be an add-on selling Premiership football at (or in excess of) Sky Sports prices?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...y-penetration/

That arc is going up faster, not slower, and including it's cut-price Premiership packages for the next three years will only see that rise further (especially with it being Christmas).

What if in three years time it's at 12 million and it's cost them next to nothing to achieve it. Are the remaining 13 million best reached by £5bn outlay? Or could they just launch a 5G MVNO and bundle that in as well?

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

Not sure I understand your case here, jfman.

You mention 25 million homes, but 25 million homes don't take Sky Sports, so I don't understand why you quote that figure.

UK Prime subs are already higher than those paying for Sky Sports in the UK (I think??), so the quickest way for Amazon to make the rights pay would be a direct conversion of those Sky and BT customers paying for sports over to Prime. But there are other ways they could do it too, like I mentioned the other day from targetable ads, to flogging stuff from their website.

Why do you think Amazon (or any other streamer, if they were to be the successful bidder) would fail if it gained sports rights, when it's been so good for Sky and BT?

I doubt Liberty would ever bid on its own for rights, as it doesn't have the dosh, neither does Netflix, or the inclination to go down the sports route.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

If we leave football briefly to the side:

If the aim is cross selling Prime and using that to drive sales on the website (and profits that way) then 25 million Prime subscriptions is surely the target for the business - everyone buying as much as they can all the time on Amazon. How do we get from 6 to 25 (or as near 25 as possible, I accept 100% is unrealistic in all cases) in the most cost effective way?

To bring football back in: would football be a driver to deliver that, or as close to that, as possible at a cost in excess of £5bn?

I haven’t said they’d fail outright. It’s high risk, low (if any) reward in a three year rights window. I don’t think you’d get a 1:1 conversion of a Sky Sports subscriber to an Amazon package - how many Sky Sports customers subscribe for the rest of the content or the overall bundle, how many are on bundle deals with Sky/Virgin so what’s the net cost - what will they get rid of ultimately and are they willing to pay the new total price?

On day 1 you’re losing money straight away until you reach the break even point. You’d really be looking at getting 6 million subscribers to pay in excess of £25 a month to cover the costs. You don’t have a 7 day a week channel and don’t have content in half of May, all of June or July. I don’t think that’s so straightforwardly achievable anyone would take the gamble.

I don’t think there’s “new” subscribers to the market out there vying for this price point - it’s more expensive (twice the price!) than the 9 month Now TV pass that floats about and it has Football League, F1, etc.

I think if it was achievable the Premier League would have done it themselves on a platform neutral basis as far back as the ITV Digital days.

The risk of a new entrant was deemed so low by Sky they bid even less than last time and won a better share of the rights.

I think I’ve said on this forum (or possibly on another) a new entrant needs a five/ten year window to operate without the uncertainty they are left in year 4 scrambling for a new business model having lost the rights a la Setanta.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

Ok I think I understand, it is late.:)

You're basically saying that you reckon Amazon wants every UK home to be a Prime subscriber and that's something I agree with, based on what Amazon have said themselves. Amazon have said they want us all to view them as like a utility which becomes a "must have" service.

How do they go from 6 to 25?? They already have the 25. Something like 90% of UK internet users have bought something from Amazon, so they already have the card details of the other millions more people and they can market to those other people and try and covert them to Prime customers.


Don't know, but I'm thinking that Amazon's goal would be to knock out BT and Sky here as competitors and try and poach as many of their customers as possible.

What we don't know is how many today already take both Sky Sports and Amazon Prime.

---------- Post added at 23:47 ---------- Previous post was at 23:33 ----------

I agree that its risky, but much of that risk has already been removed as essentially Sky has created the market for pay sports. Amazon have just got to poach those customers and convert them onto its own service.

Sports is still priced separately, as far as I know and is not included in bundles. (I think, I don't take sports)
I think Amazon would be extremely aggressive on price and have sports at a price point well below that £25, at least to begin with. They could just market it as "add footie for a tenner" or something like that onto existing Prime subs.

Amazon don't need a channel, they have their streaming service and could bundle other sports into the package.
I don't know how many Now Tv sports subscribers there are, but I doubt its many as the cost is higher than Sky's normal satellite service, for sports anyway.
On those last points, the PL could go direct now and cut out the middleman, this is happening in America and this has only been possible over recent years with the increase of broadband speeds.

Interesting that you mention ITV Digital. They don't exist because Murdoch killed them. His Israeli company broke ITV Digital's encryption and then leaked it all on the internet, thus destroying the business.

Leaving aside football for a second, but the general argument that I am making about the streamers and especially the tech giants, is they are the Murdoch of today. They're the sharks and they're the ones with the deeper pockets, which is exactly why Murdoch sold out.

Who's bigger out of these two groups:

Comcast
AT&T
Verizon
Disney


Apple
Amazon
Google
Facebook

One group is significantly larger than the other and its why if Amazon (or any other tech co) wants to compete against Sky on sports or anything else, they can and potentially destroy their business.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

Amazon WILL need a channel (see below) unless they think there is huge unrealised market out there?!

Quick google on the subject brings this article:
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/0...doch_panorama/

so not so much that issue but a poor business model!

Really, given their age, Apple belong in the first group but they have reinvented themselves pretty well since the ipod/iphone up to now although they are getting back to their pre-return of Steve Jobs period again, they have a significant cash pile but they have the wron people at the top.

Comcast want to get into the second group (as do all the big players from the previous generaton see Disney+) thus why they paid so much for Sky. The NowTV brand is working for budget subscribers in the UK and Sky caters for the premium market.

The Sky Sports Brand is worth a lot but Sky Sports itself is a dwiddling market with less than 50% of Sky's 10 Million customers taking Sports nowadays and it continues to fall. The problem is (and I think Amazon and competitors know this) that the people who pay the big money for Sports are a dying (no pun itended) market. Young people are less likely to pay premiums for live Sports since they can watch near-live clips on social media (or in UK on Match of the Day).

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

If every single household in the country added a £10 sports add on to Prime that'd only return £7.5bn in revenue once you strip the VAT out. An entirely unrealistic prospect I'm sure we'd all agree.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

I'm not saying it would be £10 necessarily, but does the wisdom of such a move depend on how it is packaged? If a £10 pm subscription actually created significantly more sales for Amazon, it might be worth it. We certainly buy rather more than £500 worth of goods per annum from that company so if those currently not subscribing to Prime decided to do so in the future on the back of sports subscriptions, the maths might look more encouraging..

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

That was my thinking, old boy, coupled with targeted ads where Amazon know what people like and then sell adverts (making money) to specific advertisers and then make more money by flogging whatever goods from their site and that's all assuming that Amazon didn't just charge a subscription rate similar to what Sky/VM/BT do now.

I don't see how a trillion dollar company with more data on people than anyone else, will struggle compared to an existing pay tv company such as Sky.

And don't forget all those overpriced football kits to be flogged by them too along with a multitude of other merchandising.

As I said, the sports pay tv market is already there, created by MUrdoch. The customer base is already there, most people already have smart tvs, firetv sticks etc to access Amazon's Prime app. It should be a "doddle" to convert those Sky/BT/Vm sports customers to themselves.

And yes, it does depend on how its packaged, which I think Amazon will need to undercut existing prices to encourage the wholesale move of sports customers to them.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

So why isn't Amazon even competing with Netflix a company it could easy outspend.

Amazons Video offering is generally inferior to that of Netflix.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

Surely you've answered your own question. If Amazon already have so many customers, hold so much data, and have "trillions of dollars" why would they waste £5bn+ to then sell a product they don't want or need on their portfolio?

Old Boy says he spends £500 a year on Amazon, but what's the profit margin? Is he going to spend even more if they sold football at a loss out of kindness?

In reality there's diminishing returns from this where the set of rights they have will gain a lot of little outlay. Substantially more rights will cost more to achieve fewer core subscribers.

Then we come back to why England? Why not North America? Germany? Italy? Spain?

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

If and again it's a big if Amazon launched a sports pack addon i think we'd be talking more like £20 imo.
If anything despite my previous comments we might get Amazon doing a deal with say BT to get BTsports as part of their addon channels packs.

Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
 

But why are they getting involved in sports to begin with, then?

Look back at Amazon's origins. How many independent book stores are there now? I think that's the reason why they're getting involved in sports.

Like Hollywood films, our premier league stopped being a English football league years ago. It's a international league with a fast growing global audience unlike other leagues like La liga and couple that with other global sports like golf, tennis etc and films/tv and you have a compelling product you can sell across the globe.