Re: Britain outside the EU
 

New trade deal with Alpha Centauri system coming soon, early reports indicate Orion not happy with possible undercutting sales of dark matter ;)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

:D Yes, It's a very sophisticated bit of kit, but unfortunately can only find stuff that's actually there. :)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The EU are now strongly denying a report that Mars will join the European Union before Belarus ever will

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It's the OBR's own modelling that GDP will be permanently 4% lower than if we had remained in the EU. Even if we had a different Prime Minister, the factors that combine to make up the decrease in GDP like trade friction with the EU will still be there.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The OBR can't have factored in the anticipated new trading opportunities, then. How could they? It's a bit hard to anticipate exactly how businesses will seek to maximise these opportunities. We will only know that when it happens.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Telegraph link above for those with access.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

So, 4.7% is booming, 4.3% modest?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

however it's also worth knowing where the starting point is.

This is where we were at the start of the year.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...an-2021-04-25/

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

They have factored in future trading opportunities.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Why not take a look at the data and decide?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I've decided that there's just, barely, enough context in that graph (from 2014-2016) to show that UK/EU/US GDP growth actually do not normally mirror each other identically as they were doing immediately before and after the referendum, and that most of the graph relates to the pandemic period in which, frankly, all bets are off. While the UK presently sits lower than the EU there is some indication in the graph that the UK is recovering more quickly.

All in all, the FT's choice of headline here should raise an eyebrow or two because it appears to be stretching credulity just a tad.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The OBR has not factored in the sunlit upland "opportunities" because they don't exist (except in your imagination).

How the UK-Australia free trade agreement is worth 200 times less than EU membership



---------- Post added at 12:33 ---------- Previous post was at 12:23 ----------

For those who wold like some background information on why Brexit is never going to be a success economically:



Remember, if all you can do is to champion the ability to mitigate the losses then you have already lost the argument.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I thought we were going to have a bonfire of red tape when we left the EU to try and mitigate the GDP reduction. It seems like all that regulation was in fact needed afterall. :confused:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

And how have they come up with a figure if we are still waiting for those opportunities to be seized?

Think of a number, halve it….

---------- Post added at 13:39 ---------- Previous post was at 13:38 ----------

Because it’s far too early. We are only in our first post Brexit year.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

You do realise that all these “hasn’t happened” arguments have all the credibility of a child asking if we’re there yet when the car’s barely off the drive?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I don’t know how you make that out. We are behind in the timetable because of that little disrupter called Covid.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Oh, the irony…

What do you do - think of a number, then double it?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Can’t vouch for the accuracy of this below, but it’s taken from a Linked In post, and Linked In “tends” to be a bit more sensible than other SM platforms.

But if true, the end isn’t nigh…….

This is just big headline stuff, not including all the other Investments in U.K. plc.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stuar...710531584-XiMM

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Aye, but....;)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

What irony? It’s not me who’s banding about ‘finger in the air’ figures.

What economists know is that when you create opportunities for business, businesses will seize them. But you cannot put a figure on it until you know in what way these opportunities will be exercised.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The OBR does not bandy around finger-in-the-air figures, Old Boy. They know that macro is not a cash and carry. ;)

What economists do know is that when you increase costs and red tape in one country, you put that country at a competitive disadvantage. That's where your minus 4% comes from. At the moment, the opportunities we're creating are for overseas businesses and not UK ones.

Take the latest farce - from January, our steel and aluminium producers will continue to face hefty 25% tariffs from the US whilst our EU competitors will face none.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...iffs-abolished

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

And the opportunities have to be real, and achievable.

If you were in a bar at the same time as Gal Gadot, you would have the opportunity to try and seize that opportunity, but the likelyhood of success is, at best, unlikely...

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

No one said the end is nigh. The issue is that we are/will not be as successful as we would have been has we stayed as we were.

Stating a list of events without context is meaningless. These events could represent an over achievement relative to pre-2016 or an under achievement. You provide no means of assessing this.

Classic Leave messaging ..

---------- Post added at 18:27 ---------- Previous post was at 18:26 ----------

Which bar and when? :)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

You don't know that, it's surely too early to predict such an outcome as we have only been out of the EU for a short time.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Long term 4% GBP loss is a starter as supported by the macro economic "Gravity" model:

https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/gl...of_trade.html/

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It’s only a model. You know, like the ones the over-predict Covid hospitalisations.

---------- Post added at 19:14 ---------- Previous post was at 19:12 ----------

You are looking only at the EU, as usual. We will be thinking more globally in the future. That’s where our opportunities lie.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think you misread my post. We're talking about the UK facing tariffs when selling steel and aluminium to the US whereas the EU has been able to get these removed.

The EU will continue to increase its deals globally as well so we're unlikely to get any deals from other countries that we wouldn't have got with them. Maybe a bit quicker and maybe on inferior terms.

I know some may take a more socialist attitude when businesses complain and they're entitled to their opinions. But if you still believe there's unconquered territories just waiting for British exports, the experience of the Cheshire Cheese Company may be eye-opening.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...ver-negotiated

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Think you aimed that one at Andrew by mistake, you should be pulling Old Boy up on his 'how do you know as it hasn't happened yet' arguements he does it quite often (for example, see his post immediately before the one of yours I've quoted).

To be honest though, Old Boy is nothing but consistent - his claims of the benefits still to come from Brexit are just like a rehash of his claims of the (impendingish) end of TV as we know in the next cough cough number of years.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It might be by you and Chris but there's plenty of Leavers I know who still believe the spin that we won't be worse off. Ask them who's paying for the customs checks and paperwork and it gets interesting! ;)

---------- Post added at 20:47 ---------- Previous post was at 20:34 ----------

I expect the Brexit process to be defended in this thread but this is not its strongest defence. If one of the cited selling points of the Referendum 6.5 years ago was to remove red tape, then surely we at least knew what the red tape was that we were going to get rid of? If this was impeding the economy then it would seem sensible to remove it at the same time as we were busy erecting more red tape for exporters? Or at the very least, given Covid, to have a timetable for its removal?

---------- Post added at 20:52 ---------- Previous post was at 20:47 ----------

Yup. Optimism is a likable personality trait, but you can't base a business or economy on it.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yup. It’s like having ‘hope’ in a plan - if it’s in your plan, you’re likely to fail…

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I don’t recall “red tape” being a major deal maker/breaker in the debate……such as it was.

Also if you think Jimmy Davis, from Peterlee was basing his decision on that, you have learnt nothing in the last 5 years.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Your appeal to the date of the referendum is a deliberate obfuscation.

Regulatory change is something that couldn’t be planned in any serious way while the degree or ongoing alignment with the EU was unresolved. Don’t forget (I’m sure you haven’t really) that for 3 years the government was led by Theresa May who clearly wanted to retain as much alignment with the EU as she could get away with.

As for covid, well most politicians seem to accept that these are highly unusual times. Even the SNP accepts its own constitutional project must wait until some semblance of normality has returned. And once we get do get to it, it would be very tricky to deal with “regulations” in a single act of parliament. There are lots of different rules affecting lots of different things. Regulatory divergence from the EU is a project that will unfold organically over many, many years.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

You are right. If it is the Jimmy Davis from Peterlee that I know of, it was all about getting rid of foreigners.

---------- Post added at 11:48 ---------- Previous post was at 11:46 ----------

Slight correction: hope was the Plan. Oh, and "opportunities"

---------- Post added at 11:56 ---------- Previous post was at 11:48 ----------

Now we are getting to the crux of things. You and others were happy to pay* any price to get this project over the line. However, the majority of those voting Leave were not. In fact, they were expecting little or no downside because that is what they were told.

If the self-evident risks were clearly acknowledged by Leave at the time, they would not have won. This is why this is and was the Big Con.

*more accurately, for others to pay

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I quoted a reference to exactly this earlier in this thread, I guess it was not in blue so you missed it.

---------- Post added at 13:22 ---------- Previous post was at 13:20 ----------

It seems the French have taken back control:

https://twitter.com/LeShuttle/status...45791027179524

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I feel that someone is still bitter and twisted about losing the referendum. this time next year we'll be millionaires:)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think you'll find that is incorrect. Don't believe everything you see on social media.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Even an article in the eu loving guanriad refers to the ban as a COVID decision.

So nothing at all to do with this thread as I'm sure the poster knew. :dunce:

Link

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Surely the French "taking control of their borders" is relevant to Brexit thread, as that was one of the main drivers for Leave voters?

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/0...endum-and-why/

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think third country status enables France to do this to us. I doubt their paymasters in Berlin would allow it to happen to ze Germans.

I know the forum loves binary but being Brexit or Covid aren’t mutually exclusive positions for this one.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

On what planet?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Here's the details on the Eurotunnel web site:

https://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/travel...covid-19/#foca and the French Consulate site: https://uk.ambafrance.org/FAQ-Travel...nce-and-the-UK

You really haven't being paying attention have you? Brexit is all about sovereignty (as Seph will attest) and taking control of your borders .. which the French have done.

---------- Post added at 15:08 ---------- Previous post was at 15:06 ----------

I think this degree of nuance may be a bridge too far

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

For the hard of understanding - one of the main drivers for Brexit, according to Ashcroft’s poll, was "taking back control" of the U.K. borders, and we supposedly couldn’t do that whilst within the EU.

The French have just "taken back control" of their borders, whilst still being in the EU.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Every country in the world is going to make decisions that favour their own citizens and country over the UK.

That's not being 'spiteful' or 'punishing' any more than our own government is when similar decisions are made here.

It's the real world affect of us being the 'sovereign country' the Brexit vote resulted in.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Typical Remainer nonsense - Macron is being a spiteful imbecile.

Our government has not unilaterally blocked foreign citizens from traveling across the UK by road, so wtf is this "making similar decisions" rubbish on about?

Those without the EU rose tinted glasses can see plainly what is going on, France is playing political games, the childish prick, aka Macron, isn't getting his own way when it comes to fishing licenses and France has been on record for wanting to "punish" the UK for daring to leave a corrupt organisation, such as the corrupted EU.

https://fullfact.org/europe/french-p...shment-letter/

---------- Post added at 17:53 ---------- Previous post was at 17:49 ----------

More Remainer bollocks - see above. :rolleyes:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I’m not sure an EU member state asking the EU to act in it’s interest is an entirely unpredictable or unreasonable position to be fair. That’s the point of the EU.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

:rolleyes: Another one from the EU rose tinted glasses wearing brigade, those without can see & know it is an undemocratic and corrupt institution.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It’s not being rose tinted, Mick. It’s simply observing the reality. How I voted six years ago is irrelevant to that.

It’s a big bad capitalist world out there, with everyone out for their own interests. We wanted out - we are out. Naturally at some point our interests will conflict with that of France, Spain, Germany, etc.

They’ve signed up (to a greater or lesser extent) to look out for their collective interests to increase their own power relative to the United States, China, India, Russia, etc.

To believe the EU won’t act in it’s own interests is to be completely irrational.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Their collective interest is to punish us for ever daring to leave, that's their main goal. Britain cannot be allowed to succeed outside EU's corrupt empire because if another member country was to see Britain succeed outside the EU, this would be the end of their power hungry empire. Their aim to make an example, humiliate us at every turn so we regret our decision to leave, only, I never will.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The whole immigration argument for Brexit was to allow the UK to do that if they so wished and is what the UK government can now do

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/i...-december-2020If the UK can increase migration from a specific country like India:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...migration-deal
Then they can decide to block migration from other countries.

---------- Post added at 18:49 ---------- Previous post was at 18:32 ----------

Their collective interest is to make their collective interest succeed at the expense of the rest of the world.

We are now part of the 'rest of the world' so there is no obligation for the EU or the countries in it to treat us in any other way, and I don't expect them to either.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I agree that it’s not in their interests for Brexit to be a success, but that’s not in and of itself unreasonable.

This very forum would be frothing at the mouth about how to make Scottish independence as difficult as possible if the people there voted for it. Unfortunately, it’s a natural part of identity politics.

There’s no fairytale ending of “fair doos, lads. All the best”.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

"UK nationals will be allowed to travel through France if they are going to their home in an EU country during the festive period.

France suspended its Covid restriction after UK travellers faced difficulties reaching their country of residence."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59832076

Odd sort of punishment

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I am assuming that, like the 4% GDP drop, the reaction of our friends across the channel was costed in and to be expected when the referendum was performed? If yes, why so angry, it was to be expected...

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Ironically it was probably the EU who told them to knock this off as it probably breaks the point of Schengen. It's not up to France to police who drives into Spain for example and the point of Schengen is they can go via France.

It should be noted that this was them extending their COVID restrictions rather than a new rule for now. This (now revoked) change is a bit of a red herring because it was a massive loophole in that existing restriction which was probably causing them headaches. Those COVID restrictions are almost certainly about politics though. It doesn't make sense that Americans can visit without a compelling reason (so long as they're vaccinated) and we can't.

They should just ditch that pointless rule.

And we should ditch the isolate + Day 2 PCR to come here.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

We’re not talking about immigration here, we’re talking about a petty country, France, blocking Brits travelling on the road trying to get home. They have since undone their idiotic and foolish political posturing, which is what this was, nothing else.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Just a thought but if Boris had behaved like the French have there would be loads of people screaming "embarrassing u-turn!!"
I wonder where they all are........

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

In France?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Nah, it was just Macron being spiteful by letting the Brits travel through…

And to be fair, where would people from the Continent be driving to if they were driving through the U.K. to get there?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Agree with the rest of what you said but not that.


If you're coming from outside you are at higher risk of bringing in a newer variant than those circulating. So all arrivals should isolate and PCR test negative after the usual incubation has passed to ensure this hasn't happened.


It isn't watertight but it would help.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Are you more at risk of generating a new variant overseas than you are here?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Ireland? :shrug:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Probably...

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It is a victim mentality to see this as punishment. France is in the midst of a tsunami of daily Covid case, like we are, and are aiming to mitigate risk, like we should be doing.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It's probably more to do with the election coming up in the spring and Macron needing to show strength against us over fishing and also the virus itself. If France was really simply worried about the COVID cases they would ban travelling from America as well.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Your obsession is getting a little concerning…

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Your attribution to a person actions carried out by a Government.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The EU will long outlast Macron.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I get the feeling that's it's not just the EU that you don't like about Europe.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Fair point although do the numbers compare: UK v. US?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

And your obsessions isn’t? :rolleyes:

---------- Post added at 15:06 ---------- Previous post was at 15:04 ----------

Bang on. :tu:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Random question.

The Mail on Sunday have a question in the poll they published today.

“Do you trust Boris to get Brexit done?”
Yes 43. No 48.

When is Brexit considered “done”?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It'll be on a Tuesday.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I guess Brexit will be done when we have dealt with all the transitional problems we are experiencing and we’ve cleared away all those bureaucratic EU laws which threaten to stifle our economy.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Which laws in particular are you referring to? If you class them as 'stifling' then you must be aware of what specifically they 'stifle'?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Negotiations with the EU will always happen though at some stage people will stop calling it Brexit.

The last bit of added Brexit bureaucracy seems to be on 1 November so perhaps after that, the term will reduce in use? [Graphic: FT.com]

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I’m not really worried about the terminology. It just strikes me as somewhat odd (and perhaps dangerous) to have a seemingly ethereal concept hanging over the Prime Minister, his successor and presumably subsequent holders of the post. What do these 48% (plus presumably a subset of the 43% who don’t think the PM has delivered but trust him to do so) of people want/need to see?

I’m not convinced the added paperwork of export health certificates is the answer. OB has alluded to a transitionary period - something I don’t consider unreasonable in and of itself - but what event heralds the end of the transition and acceptance that this is no longer a transition it is indeed the post-Brexit present? Or in the absence of a definition does it become a get out of free card for this and subsequent Governments that the big bad European bogeyman won’t let us deliver.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Not in our lifetime then.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I don’t see the value in defining it by date or a particular event. We will know we have all our ducks in a row - current issues such as the NI border and fishing resolved, EU laws replaced, new-style trade deals in place with services an integral part of them, and businesses taking advantage of the new environment to make up for and exceed the initial losses incurred with separation.

We will know it when we see it.

---------- Post added at 16:26 ---------- Previous post was at 16:17 ----------

How can you doubt it? You want to try reading some EU Directives and ask yourself how you would comply with them all if you were running a business.

We were faced with having to take an extra lawyers where I worked before to negotiate our way through very complicated EU legislation, and there was a lack of certainty about the conclusion reached on whether or not actions we took were ‘safe’ legally because the ECJ often went beyond what was actually required by law when making its judgements. The Acquired Rights Directive was a nightmare to apply when staff were transferring from one company to another.

There is a piece in today’s Telegraph about how much better the City will be able to operate as it frees itself from EU rules.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...roker-finncap/

[EXTRACT]

The head of the City broker FinnCap has said Brexit has been a boost to the Square Mile as it has allowed regulators to ditch EU red tape.

Sam Smith, chief executive of the London-listed business, said more money is going into UK growth companies than ever before and the City is working “very well”, despite warnings that it would lose business and jobs to the Continent following Britain’s break with Brussels.

“To me, Brexit has not been anything other than quite positive ... we are seeing signs that actually the regulatory regime could be changed in a positive way post-Brexit to really make this ecosystem fly,” she said.

The comments came as new research from EY found that fears of a mass exodus of City workers failed to materialise as the flow of bankers and traders moving to the EU went into reverse this year.

Hundreds of thousands of jobs were said to be at risk if the UK voted to leave. However, the exodus has been far lower than expected with fewer than 10,000 workers thought to have relocated.

Separately, the City watchdog implemented a set of sweeping reforms of London’s listing rules in December as regulators seek to make the City more attractive to fast-growing firms.

As part of the overhaul, the Financial Conduct Authority slashed free float requirements for listed companies in a bid to lure a new generation of start-ups to the London Stock Exchange.

It also permitted firms with dual-class share structures to claim places in the leading share indices and draw on a wider pool of investors including tracker funds.

Ms Smith said: “We have had a great funding environment, there is lots of investment coming into the UK, there is money to back startups and scale up businesses. And that’s continued to come from overseas, which has gotten much better since Brexit.”

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

So for decades, election after election, PM after PM, governments could blame Brexit for their own inadequacies?

Come on OB you know that’s a preposterous position. Is there a list of laws to be replaced, a list of trade deals by which success or failure is gauged? Would the 48%+ even agree on what that looks like?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Why would it take decades? That’s the view of pessimistic remainers.

I doubt we will still be talking about Brexit in five years’ time, as long as the PM is not diverted from his mission.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It was you who said you saw little value in defining a timeframe, not me.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Wow, that takes us back 40 years…

From the employees viewpoint, the Acquired Rights Directive (Inc. TUPE) was a very good thing.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

When all the remoaners finish going on about it probably :erm::D

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Just trying to be helpful...:erm:

I was not putting a timeframe on when Brexit would be done, just when I thought people would stop going on about it.

---------- Post added at 18:06 ---------- Previous post was at 17:56 ----------

There are less bureaucratic and less complicated ways of going about it. Like the Working Time Directive, the headline benefits are clear, but you need to look at the detail and the impact.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Brexit may possibly become 'history' when the EU itself finally implodes with all the infighting . . .


. . one can dream ;)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

For example?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think you need to read it, Hugh, and you will see for yourself.

By the way, have you tried reading the GDPR? It makes riveting reading, and ALL organisations with people records, even simply names and addresses of members or customers, have to comply with this.

If you think that’s reasonable, then I guess nothing will persuade you. But these Directives are a drag on business.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

For the the European project to work, the national identity of the countries participating in it need to be secondary.

Not sure that will work out.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ightwing-anger

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...feud-with-bloc

https://euobserver.com/democracy/153889

But hey, at least we can watch from the sidelines

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

You're the one that's argued there is a different way of doing it, so you must have an example?

Again, what's an example part of GDPR that you'd now change?

All rules and obligation to business could be considered a 'drag' depending on what position you're stood in and who you want to benefit.

Why bother giving employees any rights? That's just a 'drag' on a business making profit for their owners or shareholders.

What about accounting laws? They're just a 'drag' as businesses need to employ people to create, maintain and audit the books.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yep, seen all those (and more), it certainly hasn't looked all fine and dandy in the land of European Contentment for a while :D

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

At length, as I was an IT Director when it was coming in, and had to ensure we were compliant.

And as for TUPE, I was involved/affected both as an employer and an employee, and I think it’s a good thing…

You’re very good at sweeping statements/complaints, but never actually detailed alternatives, just "make it simpler", and "drag on business" - you don’t seem to recognise the benefits/protections they gave employees.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

This is not going doing well with Mail online readers, judging by the comments.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-work-UK.html

Some of the more recent comments include: