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papa smurf 22-06-2019 16:47

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35999970)
Aside from the question of just who's going to construct this hard border or indeed order it, to see the perfidious Varadkar squirm will be a reward of significant value.

I've had enough of the Irish tail wagging the UK dog.


It's going to be an order from varadkar to build it to save his precious single market,at which point he paints a target on his back for breaching the GF agreement,he'll be busy looking under his car and avoiding little parcels for the rest of his life.

Hugh 22-06-2019 18:06

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35999972)
It's going to be an order from varadkar to build it to save his precious single market,at which point he paints a target on his back for breaching the GF agreement,he'll be busy looking under his car and avoiding little parcels for the rest of his life.

You really don’t know how it works, do you?

OLD BOY 22-06-2019 18:13

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35999968)
As long as Trump is President and Congress claim to protect the GFA we are a bit stuck over trading with the US.

The EU will not allow a border that would let US sourced produce into the EU via Ireland. The checks needed on top of the Country of Origin rules makes a hard border inevitable.

It is not inevitable and you are simply adding to existing volumes relating to Project Fear.

1andrew1 22-06-2019 18:42

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35999970)
I've had enough of the Irish tail wagging the UK dog.

It will be that way so long as Ireland is in the EU and the UK has planned/has left the EU. The EU will always support its members, regardless of their size. Traditionally, Ireland has been a weaker party to the UK but the roles are now reversed. Size matters, and people are starting to see what this statement means in practice.

Angua 22-06-2019 19:00

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35999986)
It is not inevitable and you are simply adding to existing volumes relating to Project Fear.

The alternatives are accepting the backstop via the WA or Irish reunification.

I have no problem with either. The DUP may have other ideas.

Sephiroth 22-06-2019 19:04

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1;35999999[COLOR="Red"
]It will be that way so long as Ireland is in the EU [/COLOR]and the UK has planned/has left the EU. The EU will always support its members, regardless of their size. Traditionally, Ireland has been a weaker party to the UK but the roles are now reversed. Size matters, and people are starting to see what this statement means in practice.

We know all that. It rankles and irks. Ireland is hiding behind a very bad institution - the EU and they need to get their come uppance.

OLD BOY 22-06-2019 19:23

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 36000003)
The alternatives are accepting the backstop via the WA or Irish reunification.

I have no problem with either. The DUP may have other ideas.

Those are two alternatives, it's true. What about the others?

You are just being taken in by the Project Fear hype and the attempts by remainers and the EU to muddy the waters.

ianch99 22-06-2019 19:39

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000012)
Those are two alternatives, it's true. What about the others?

You are just being taken in by the Project Fear hype and the attempts by remainers and the EU to muddy the waters.

Let's drop the Project Fear bullshit shall we? It is called facts and reality. Anything else is denial.

If you disagree, prove it with facts and argument. The land of No Deal has no sunlit uplands running wild with unicorns I am afraid.

1andrew1 22-06-2019 20:09

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000012)
Those are two alternatives, it's true. What about the others?

You are just being taken in by the Project Fear hype and the attempts by remainers and the EU to muddy the waters.

The only alternative is some technological solution that's not been invented yet. Not to say it won't happen in the future but for now we have to work with what we have.

---------- Post added at 20:09 ---------- Previous post was at 19:47 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36000004)
We know all that. It rankles and irks. Ireland is hiding behind a very bad institution - the EU and they need to get their come uppance.

The UK voted in 2016 to effectively be a big cog in a small wheel, in a wheel of large cogs.

I can't see much changing now. The previous talking-up of the likelihood of Greece, Spain, the Netherlands and Ireland leaving the EU seems to have been more wishful thinking than wholesome facts.

Mick 22-06-2019 21:13

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000016)
The land of No Deal has no sunlit uplands running wild with unicorns I am afraid.

Prove it with facts. (Potentially Fictional Forecasts are not proof before you even try running with them.)

You cannot tell others to prove something when you don’t bother to prove what you’re saying is even remotely true.

1andrew1 22-06-2019 21:26

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000027)
Prove it with facts. (Potentially Fictional Forecasts are not proof before you even try running with them.)

You cannot tell others to prove something when you don’t bother to prove what you’re saying is even remotely true.

It's been demonstrated to the pro-Brexit UK Government. There's no stronger available analysis than this and despite their agenda, they have accepted it.
To me, ianch99 is not asking for perfect evidence but something equivalent to that which shows we will be worse off and not just optimistic phrases.

nomadking 22-06-2019 21:34

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35999938)
Brexit has been a brilliant recruitment tool for the latest incarnation of the IRA.

Completely forgetting about the impact of Leaving on the GFA has been the problem. The UK asked for the Backstop arrangement in the WA. This has prevented the WA getting through parliament. You can wish the GFA has nothing to do with Brexit all you want. It does not stop it being a factor .

March 2016, ie before referendum

Quote:

A murder investigation begins into the death of murder of prison officer Adrian Ismay, 11 days after he was injured in a booby-trap bomb attack in east Belfast.
The device exploded under the 52-year-old officer's van as he drove over a speed ramp at Hillsborough Drive on 4 March.
Days later, a dissident republican group widely referred to as the new IRA said it carried out the attack.
The New IRA is just a collective group for all the Republican terrorists.
July 2012

Quote:

Some of Northern Ireland's dissident republican paramilitary groups are to come together under the banner of the IRA, a statement has claimed.

1andrew1 22-06-2019 22:02

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36000029)
March 2016, ie before referendum

The New IRA is just a collective group for all the Republican terrorists.
July 2012

No one's saying the New IRA didn't exist before June 2016.
What's your post #3612 on about then?

nomadking 22-06-2019 22:31

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36000030)
No one's saying the New IRA didn't exist before June 2016.

The accusation made was "Brexit has been a brilliant recruitment tool for the latest incarnation of the IRA.".

1) Why should the IRA etc be that bothered about the border?
2) Why should we have to continually pander to them?

1andrew1 23-06-2019 05:13

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36000031)
The accusation made was "Brexit has been a brilliant recruitment tool for the latest incarnation of the IRA.".

1) Why should the IRA etc be that bothered about the border?
2) Why should we have to continually pander to them?

If you read this article that Angua linked to, it explains the recruitment question and the New IRA's interest in the border.

The first time that I've heard about our continually pandering to the New IRA is in your post. As far as I'm aware, no one is suggesting that. However, I'm sure you appreciate that it's better not to adopt policies that increase support for terrorism if you can avoid it.

Angua 23-06-2019 08:44

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36000031)
The accusation made was "Brexit has been a brilliant recruitment tool for the latest incarnation of the IRA.".

1) Why should the IRA etc be that bothered about the border?
2) Why should we have to continually pander to them?

As 1andrew1 posted, read the article.

Any system that of necessity closes off roads between RoI & Ni will cause problems with the GFA. Any system that is not robust enough will cause problems with WTO rules. Simple things, like milk being collected from farms both sides of the border, bottled on one side and sold on the other. This falls foul of Country of Origin rules when we leave the EU.

Then there is the problem of those pesky migrants, who travel to RoI under FoM, then cross into NI through one of these unchecked borders.

Shove checkpoints in and the New IRA will target them.
There is no technology that can cope with remote checking of tanker full of milk from either side of the border, let alone simple checks on goods.
Move the border to the Irish Sea and the DUP will kick off.
NI farmers are particularly vulnerable to cheap beef imports.

Simplest solution is reunification. Would the DUP support the government if this was even whispered, let alone supported?

Maggy 23-06-2019 08:59

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 36000046)
As 1andrew1 posted, read the article.

Any system that of necessity closes off roads between RoI & Ni will cause problems with the GFA. Any system that is not robust enough will cause problems with WTO rules. Simple things, like milk being collected from farms both sides of the border, bottled on one side and sold on the other. This falls foul of Country of Origin rules when we leave the EU.

Then there is the problem of those pesky migrants, who travel to RoI under FoM, then cross into NI through one of these unchecked borders.

Shove checkpoints in and the New IRA will target them.
There is no technology that can cope with remote checking of tanker full of milk from either side of the border, let alone simple checks on goods.
Move the border to the Irish Sea and the DUP will kick off.
NI farmers are particularly vulnerable to cheap beef imports.

Simplest solution is reunification. Would the DUP support the government if this was even whispered, let alone supported?

:tu:

ianch99 23-06-2019 09:28

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000027)
Prove it with facts. (Potentially Fictional Forecasts are not proof before you even try running with them.)

You cannot tell others to prove something when you don’t bother to prove what you’re saying is even remotely true.

Reality does not work that way I am afraid. You research, assess the conclusions of those more knowledgeable that you in the applicable areas and then come to a informed position on what is the probable scenario.

What you do not do, although this is now the popular approach, is to invent a possibility based on no credible evidence and say this is going to happen.

---------- Post added at 09:28 ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 36000046)
Simplest solution is reunification. Would the DUP support the government if this was even whispered, let alone supported?

This is the logical & inexorable outcome of a No Deal scenario. NI has had a lot of EU funding over the years and this level of investment is unlikely to be continued by Westminster given the priority the Leave leaning politicians give NI. I mean, in the Leave campaign, when was the NI border discussed as a strategic factor in the process?

Chris 23-06-2019 10:03

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000052)
This is the logical & inexorable outcome of a No Deal scenario. NI has had a lot of EU funding over the years and this level of investment is unlikely to be continued by Westminster given the priority the Leave leaning politicians give NI. I mean, in the Leave campaign, when was the NI border discussed as a strategic factor in the process?

It’s the logical and inexorable outcome of demographics. The birth rate amongst the Catholic (and largely nationalist) population in NI is higher than that in the Protestant (and largely unionist) population. Within a couple of decades there will be a natural majority for Irish reunification, a border poll and a change of sovereign control over the territory. The calculation has always been that that would occur so far down the road, with the institutions of Northern Irish government so well established, and with the ongoing cooperation of the British and Irish governments so embedded, that the change would have amounted to little more than a flag-raising ceremony.

Part of what’s worrying Varadkar right now is that Northern Ireland is still a money pit, and a fractious one. A major world economy like the UK has the resources to deal with it. Ireland does not. The Irish neither want nor need Northern Ireland on their plate right now. It suits them to have influence without ever having to pay for it.

I agree with you, Brexit is likely to hasten Irish reunification, but that doesn’t worry me to the extent that that has always been the endgame; just one nobody dared say out loud. It should concern all of us that doing it too soon could cause some problems, but I absolutely don’t agree with the argument that says we shouldn’t do Brexit because it’s too difficult. For me, that simply reinforces the argument that our ongoing entanglement with the EU is de facto eroding our sovereignty.

Mick 23-06-2019 10:04

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000052)
Reality does not work that way I am afraid. You research, assess the conclusions of those more knowledgeable that you in the applicable areas and then come to a informed position on what is the probable scenario.

What you do not do, although this is now the popular approach, is to invent a possibility based on no credible evidence and say this is going to happen.

Which is what you do all the time.

Those that you claim are more knowledgeable are far from knowledgeable, they are still basing their negative presumptions on forecasts and as I said, these are not evidence in the slightest.

So perhaps stop demanding others have to prove something, when you continue to not do the same thing!

1andrew1 23-06-2019 11:15

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000070)
Which is what you do all the time.

Those that you claim are more knowledgeable are far from knowledgeable, they are still basing their negative presumptions on forecasts and as I said, these are not evidence in the slightest.

So perhaps stop demanding others have to prove something, when you continue to not do the same thing!

I don't think you can credibly expect anyone on this forum to come up with more evidence than is available to Her Majesty's Government.

Carth 23-06-2019 11:37

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36000090)
I don't think you can credibly expect anyone on this forum to come up with more evidence than is available to Her Majesty's Government.

Is this the same 'Her Majesty's Government' that many are currently calling incompetent clowns (or worse) ?

jfman 23-06-2019 11:55

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36000093)
Is this the same 'Her Majesty's Government' that many are currently calling incompetent clowns (or worse) ?

The politicians can be incompetent and the Civil Servants competent ;)

Dave42 23-06-2019 13:30

Re: Brexit
 
even Liam Fox admits gatt 24 claim is not true

BBC Politics

Verified account

@BBCPolitics
2h
2 hours ago


More
Liam Fox on Boris Johnson’s ‘GATT 24’ #Brexit claims: “It isn’t true, that’s the problem”

The trade secretary tells #Marr that the argument from Boris Johnson, that we can use world trade rules to avoid tariffs after Brexit, “isn’t true”

http://bbc.in/2tnzxS0

Mick 23-06-2019 14:35

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36000090)
I don't think you can credibly expect anyone on this forum to come up with more evidence than is available to Her Majesty's Government.

And what they have is not evidence, they are forecasts, which means what they have, are predictions - you seem to have a real problem understanding the basic concept of what constitutes real evidence and just opinion. :rolleyes:

ianch99 23-06-2019 14:44

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000119)
And what they have is not evidence, they are forecasts, which means what they have, are predictions - you seem to have a real problem understanding the basic concept of what constitutes real evidence and just opinion. :rolleyes:

No, there is evidence. Even Liam Fox accepts that Article 24 cannot be used without the agreement of the EU.

Basically johnson is lying to our faces just like he did in 2016. He seems a good fit for the Prime Minister of Brexitland.

Mick 23-06-2019 16:20

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000121)
No, there is evidence. Even Liam Fox accepts that Article 24 cannot be used without the agreement of the EU.

No there is not, stop telling lies - I am not talking about A24, and you jolly well know this. I am talking about your fictional negative fantasies of chaos, in a "No deal scenario" based on absolutely no evidence. My issue is your tiresome demands of evidence from others, when you have presented none at all. :rolleyes:

ianch99 23-06-2019 16:33

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000139)
No there is not, stop telling lies - I am not talking about A24, and you jolly well know this. I am talking about your fictional negative fantasies of chaos, in a "No deal scenario" based on absolutely no evidence. My issue is your tiresome demands of evidence from others, when you have presented none at all. :rolleyes:

Ah but you see the world does not work like that. You suggest something is going to happen that has no downside when all the evidence presented contradicts you. Your position has all the work ahead of you to prove its case. The case that No Deal negatively impacts this country has already been made.

Mick 23-06-2019 16:44

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000141)
Ah but you see the world does not work like that. You suggest something is going to happen that has no downside when all the evidence presented contradicts you. Your position has all the work ahead of you to prove its case. The case that No Deal negatively impacts this country has already been made.

Again - That is not evidence, so I have not been contradicted thanks. I repeat, they are forecasts which have been and can be wrong!!!

If the weatherman forecasts it's going to rain on Wednesday but it does no such thing on the day, that is not evidence, it's a prediction just like your negative remainer fantasies of chaos are predictions.

You cannot cast forecasts as evidence, evidence is by definition something that has happened and witnessed to be fact-based. Predictions and opinions and forecasts are not and never will be evidence, so stop casting them as such and stop asking others for evidence when you don't present any.

ianch99 23-06-2019 17:55

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000142)
Again - That is not evidence, so I have not been contradicted thanks. I repeat, they are forecasts which have been and can be wrong!!!

If the weatherman forecasts it's going to rain on Wednesday but it does no such thing on the day, that is not evidence, it's a prediction just like your negative remainer fantasies of chaos are predictions.

You cannot cast forecasts as evidence, evidence is by definition something that has happened and witnessed to be fact-based. Predictions and opinions and forecasts are not and never will be evidence, so stop casting them as such and stop asking others for evidence when you don't present any.

You are entitled to your opinion however you are wrong on the definition of evidence:

Quote:

evidence: the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid:
There are numerous bodies of facts and information to indicate that the proposition that No Deal is disadvantageous to this country. This is a matter of record.

Now, please present the available body of facts or information that indicates that No Deal is advantageous to this country.

As to the request to stop asking for evidence to backup fantasy claims that could directly disadvantage me and my children, .. no chance ..

1andrew1 23-06-2019 17:59

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000142)
Again - That is not evidence, so I have not been contradicted thanks. I repeat, they are forecasts which have been and can be wrong!!!

If the weatherman forecasts it's going to rain on Wednesday but it does no such thing on the day, that is not evidence, it's a prediction just like your negative remainer fantasies of chaos are predictions.

You cannot cast forecasts as evidence, evidence is by definition something that has happened and witnessed to be fact-based. Predictions and opinions and forecasts are not and never will be evidence, so stop casting them as such and stop asking others for evidence when you don't present any.

Regardless of whether we call it modelling, evidence or analysis, it is reasonable for someone to back up their opinions with the available information. An argument supported by the UK Government's own analysis (which does include the upside for new trade deals btw) is more powerful than one without any information.

Sephiroth 23-06-2019 19:20

Re: Brexit
 
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/
In the run up to our exit planned for 29 March 2019 the EU passed a number of measures to ensure continuity if the UK left without signing the Withdrawal Treaty. Measures included an aviation agreement to ensure the planes fly, a haulage agreement to allow road transport to continue, a rail agreement, “legal certainty for ship operators”, compensation for EU fishing businesses if they lose access to UK waters, continuity for students currently in the Erasmus programme, and more time for the Peace and Interreg programmes for Ireland and Northern Ireland.

In the update produced for the recent EU Council they also noted that rights of UK citizens currently legally settled in the rest of the EU will be protected. They are ensuring medicines and Reach approved chemicals can continue to be traded, and have increased customs capacity at UK facing ports and transport centres to handle any need to introduce tariffs.

This of course all goes largely unreported by the Remain facing UK media, who carry on with silly scare stories based on an imaginary exit with none of these agreements in place
[

1andrew1 23-06-2019 19:33

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36000157)
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

John's losing it, that was all reported at the time.

ianch99 23-06-2019 19:36

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36000157)
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/
In the run up to our exit planned for 29 March 2019 the EU passed a number of measures to ensure continuity if the UK left without signing the Withdrawal Treaty. Measures included an aviation agreement to ensure the planes fly, a haulage agreement to allow road transport to continue, a rail agreement, “legal certainty for ship operators”, compensation for EU fishing businesses if they lose access to UK waters, continuity for students currently in the Erasmus programme, and more time for the Peace and Interreg programmes for Ireland and Northern Ireland.

In the update produced for the recent EU Council they also noted that rights of UK citizens currently legally settled in the rest of the EU will be protected. They are ensuring medicines and Reach approved chemicals can continue to be traded, and have increased customs capacity at UK facing ports and transport centres to handle any need to introduce tariffs.

This of course all goes largely unreported by the Remain facing UK media, who carry on with silly scare stories based on an imaginary exit with none of these agreements in place
[

Define continuity? Yes, planes will fly but what will the changes in cost & delay be? Yes, road transport will continue but what will the costs & delays be and what paperwork will be needed?

This is lazy populist blogging. If these areas will not be impacted by No Deal, he would of course of provided the links to said measures to back up his claims. But he didn't ... says it all really.

Sephiroth 23-06-2019 19:48

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36000160)
John's losing it, that was all reported at the time.

You miss the point. The EU has done enough to ensure that there is no sudden crash.

Carth 23-06-2019 20:30

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000162)
. . . .
This is lazy populist blogging. . .

Oh, I thought that was evidence earlier :wavey:

pip08456 23-06-2019 20:31

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36000168)
Oh, I thought that was evidence earlier :wavey:

It's only evidence when it suits the remain agenda.

ianch99 23-06-2019 21:08

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36000168)
Oh, I thought that was evidence earlier :wavey:

Guess you did not read the definition of evidence? Here it is again:

Quote:

evidence: the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid.
I suppose he just forgot to include the facts and information part from his blog :dozey:

---------- Post added at 21:08 ---------- Previous post was at 21:01 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36000165)
You miss the point. The EU has done enough to ensure that there is no sudden crash.

You can support this claim then? I am sure that John did not make any of this up so you can ask him to produce the supporting documentation that illustrates this.

I mean, the UK Government, the majority of Parliament, the CBI and countless other people seem to disagree with Mr Redwood. Obviously they are all wrong and there will be no adverse affects of No Deal .... or may be Mr Redword is telling tales (again)?

Sephiroth 23-06-2019 21:15

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000170)
Guess you did not read the definition of evidence? Here it is again:



I suppose he just forgot to include the facts and information part from his blog :dozey:

---------- Post added at 21:08 ---------- Previous post was at 21:01 ----------



You can support this claim then? I am sure that John did not make any of this up so you can ask him to produce the supporting documentation that illustrates this.

I mean, the UK Government, the majority of Parliament, the CBI and countless other people seem to disagree with Mr Redwood. Obviously they are all wrong and there will be no adverse affects of No Deal .... or may be Mr Redword is telling tales (again)?

You should stop being so pompous and pedantic.

1andrew1 23-06-2019 21:21

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36000172)
You should stop being so pompous and pedantic.

John used to be a reputable politician but now he just seems to be trying to press populist buttons. For starters, all these benefits will start and end at the EU's discretion. We'll be more of a vassal state than if the ERG and chums had accepted the Withdrawal Agreement.

ianch99 23-06-2019 22:48

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36000172)
You should stop being so pompous and pedantic.

Step back and reassess things for a minute. You link a blog that claims all will be well. I point out that there is no evidence just claims and you say I am pompous and pedantic!!

You are blind to facts and reason. Get out of your Tory membership bubble and live in the real world for a while.

You claim something will happen? Fine but back it up with reasoning and evidence. If you cannot, it is just that, a claim ..

pip08456 23-06-2019 23:06

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000181)
Step back and reassess things for a minute. You link a blog that claims all will be well. I point out that there is no evidence just claims and you say I am pompous and pedantic!!

You are blind to facts and reason. Get out of your Tory membership bubble and live in the real world for a while.

You claim something will happen? Fine but back it up with reasoning and evidence. If you cannot, it is just that, a claim ..

I'm surprised Hugh hasn't done his usual Google search.:D

Quote:

The French Parliament passed a law in January enabling the Government to decree laws covering the rights of UK nationals living and working in France, the continuity of services including finance and transport, and preparation of customs controls. The Spanish Government is preparing a “Royal Decree-law” for February to take similar actions too...

...The EU has also put in place a series of temporary measures to manage some of the immediate impacts of no deal. These would have covered basic arrangements for flights, financial services and road hauliers but the European Commission reiterated that these would not replicate the conditions of EU membership. The Commission has also stated that it will be “required to immediately apply its rules and tariffs at its borders”, though it is not clear how these will apply at the Irish border. Many of the measures were based on the assumption that a no deal exit would take place at the end of March 2019. On 12 June 2019, the European Commission announced that these temporary measures would still be valid if the UK decided to leave the EU on 31 October with no deal, but that there would be no additional measures. It added that some measures, particularly those pertaining to the EU’s sanitary and phytosanitary rules, would only come into force on 1 November 2019 if the UK Government can guarantee that it will continue to respect these rules once it has left the EU. It has urged member state governments and businesses to continue with their contingency planning.

Link

papa smurf 24-06-2019 08:16

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000181)
Step back and reassess things for a minute. You link a blog that claims all will be well. I point out that there is no evidence just claims and you say I am pompous and pedantic!!

You are blind to facts and reason. Get out of your Tory membership bubble and live in the real world for a while.

You claim something will happen? Fine but back it up with reasoning and evidence. If you cannot, it is just that, a claim ..

He missed out persistently;)

---------- Post added at 08:16 ---------- Previous post was at 08:14 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36000185)
I'm surprised Hugh hasn't done his usual Google search.:D



Link

I think he uses hughoo :)

1andrew1 24-06-2019 09:21

Re: Brexit
 
Irish border issue could be solved in three years
Quote:

Alternative arrangements for keeping the Irish border open in the event of a no-deal Brexit or the collapse of future trade talks with the EU could be up and running within three years, a report concludes.
The interim report by a non-government organisation calling itself the Alternative Arrangements Commission will be unveiled at a special conference on the Irish border in London on Monday.
Their conclusions suggest that the UK would only need the Irish border backstop contained in the withdrawal agreement until 2022, if work on such arrangements started today.
Backed by remain-voting Conservative party MPs Nicky Morgan and Greg Hands, the report makes eight interim recommendations following consultation with business, politicians and economic experts, including commercial interests in Northern Ireland.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...it-says-report

Hugh 24-06-2019 09:22

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36000185)
I'm surprised Hugh hasn't done his usual Google search.:D



Link

Always amuses me when people denigrate research and fact-finding, as if it is a negative thing - having been an Intelligence Analyst for 6 years in a previous career, I was taught to not just research, analyse, collate, and present information, but also to look at the source of the material for validity; the truth is out there, it just needs to be found and verified.

Too busy eating Gelato in Rome to google... :D

1andrew1 24-06-2019 09:36

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36000208)
Always amuses me when people denigrate research and fact-finding, as if it is a negative thing - having been an Intelligence Analyst for 6 years in a previous career, I was taught to not just research, analyse, collate, and present information, but also to look at the source of the material for validity; the truth is out there, it just needs to be found and verified.

Too busy eating Gelato in Rome to google... :D

I suspect doing robust research along the lines you suggest throws up the wrong kind of answers.
Enjoy Rome. :)

Mick 24-06-2019 09:40

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36000208)
Always amuses me when people denigrate research and fact-finding, as if it is a negative thing - having been an Intelligence Analyst for 6 years in a previous career, I was taught to not just research, analyse, collate, and present information, but also to look at the source of the material for validity; the truth is out there, it just needs to be found and verified.

Too busy eating Gelato in Rome to google... :D

Pip stole my line....There is nothing amiss in researching, and fact finding, the thing that you do. But it’s the way you do it. The determination that you must try prove a forum opponent wrong and I say opponent, because that is how you characteristically treat the poster, you’re responding to and you apply this approach mainly to folk who are not politically aligned with you.

papa smurf 24-06-2019 09:41

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36000210)
I suspect doing robust research along the lines you suggest throws up the wrong kind of answers.
Enjoy Rome. :)

Or throws out millions of different answers, it's tedious work picking out the ones you agree with ;)

Mick 24-06-2019 09:53

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000181)
Step back and reassess things for a minute. You link a blog that claims all will be well. I point out that there is no evidence just claims and you say I am pompous and pedantic!!

You are blind to facts and reason. Get out of your Tory membership bubble and live in the real world for a while.

You claim something will happen? Fine but back it up with reasoning and evidence. If you cannot, it is just that, a claim ..

Erm, all you ever do is post claim after claim, with zero evidence. I told you forecasts are not evidence and never will be and that is the end of it.

Also. I told you to stop demanding others provide evidence when you never do. Ignore me again ianch, at your own peril. :mad:

1andrew1 24-06-2019 10:18

Re: Brexit
 
Surely the only true debates you can have apart from philosophical ones are information-based ones. This should be commended and not denigrated. You can never assume another's motives here.
The alternative is of course the I'm right/No, I'm right argument which doesn't get us anywhere.
Of course, the information cited may not ever be perfect and probabilities may be attached to it. But we're all logical human beings so should be able to factor this in.

Mick 24-06-2019 10:48

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36000214)
Surely the only true debates you can have apart from philosophical ones are information-based ones. This should be commended and not denigrated. You can never assume another's motives here.
The alternative is of course the I'm right/No, I'm right argument which doesn't get us anywhere.
Of course, the information cited may not ever be perfect and probabilities may be attached to it. But we're all logical human beings so should be able to factor this in.

We cannot have a situation where someone demands evidence all the time, and you can be guilty of this at times, but then provide absolutely none yourself, when you cast off your own dispersions of opinion.

The problem here is Brexit has not occurred so there is no evidence of fact. Remainers want to write off Brexit because they are so against it, and put forward claims of chaos. The so called experts said the millennium bug would be a massive issue, a disaster for the tech industry, it wasn’t. They said not joining the EURO, would be catastrophic for the British Economy, it wasn’t.

You and ianch telling the rest of us that this expert opinion or forecast for the millennium bug and not joining the Euro, is evidence, because that is quite frankly, bullshit.

We are a single country that has voted to become independent again, of the EU, we do not need to be in their overpriced club to do trade. But we’re too busy here, well, some of us are, trying to still argue the toss that we should leave or not, that boat has sailed. The UK voted to leave.

ianch99 24-06-2019 11:14

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000213)
Erm, all you ever do is post claim after claim, with zero evidence. I told you forecasts are not evidence and never will be and that is the end of it.

Also. I told you to stop demanding others provide evidence when you never do. Ignore me again ianch, at your own peril. :mad:

I have posted many times with links to evidential articles detailing ways No Deal is disadvantageous to this country. Here are some more for you:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...alysis__1_.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.go...March_2019.pdf

Look, you just don't care what anyone says about what is likely to happen, you just want the outcome at any cost. I get that but I care what happens to this country and I care what happens to my children.

If someone says No Deal will not adversely impact this country, like John Redwood does, I will say prove it .. every time ..

Mick 24-06-2019 11:38

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000218)
I have posted many times with links to evidential articles detailing ways No Deal is disadvantageous to this country. Here are some more for you:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...alysis__1_.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.go...March_2019.pdf

Look, you just don't care what anyone says about what is likely to happen, you just want the outcome at any cost. I get that but I care what happens to this country and I care what happens to my children.

If someone says No Deal will not adversely impact this country, like John Redwood does, I will say prove it .. every time ..

Wonderful, you have linked to more opinions and waffle.

And It’s not about caring, it’s about believing. Past Forecasts and disaster predictions have been historically false.

1andrew1 24-06-2019 11:41

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000217)
We cannot have a situation where someone demands evidence all the time, and you can be guilty of this at times, but then provide absolutely none yourself, when you cast off your own dispersions of opinion.

The problem here is Brexit has not occurred so there is no evidence of fact. Remainers want to write off Brexit because they are so against it, and put forward claims of chaos. The so called experts said the millennium bug would be a massive issue, a disaster for the tech industry, it wasn’t. They said not joining the EURO, would be catastrophic for the British Economy, it wasn’t.

You and ianch telling the rest of us that this expert opinion or forecast for the millennium bug and not joining the Euro, is evidence, because that is quite frankly, bullshit.

We are a single country that has voted to become independent again, of the EU, we do not need to be in their overpriced club to do trade. But we’re too busy here, well, some of us are, trying to still argue the toss that we should leave or not, that boat has sailed. The UK voted to leave.

1) I've never demanded a higher standard of evidence than I am prepared to supply myself, that's inaccurate.
2) I've never mentioned the Millennium Bug (what a joke that was, lol) or advocated joining the Euro or we will suffer on this forum. Experts do sometimes get things wrong but mostly they get it right - experts built this forum's software, the device you have typed into and the power station that supplies the electricity for doing so.
3) Forecasts are not bullshit. They represent the best available information out there and those supplied to the Government are as impartial as possible and not produced by some underground pact of Remainers. Indeed, the Government was not keen for them to be published.

Mick 24-06-2019 11:44

Re: Brexit
 
BREAKING: Brexit Party to challenge Peterborough by-election result amid mounting evidence convicted electoral fraudster Tariq Mahmood acted as an “agent” to Labour candidate @LisaForbes_

1andrew1 24-06-2019 11:48

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000219)
Wonderful, you have linked to more opinions and waffle.

And It’s not about caring, it’s about believing. Past Forecasts and disaster predictions have been historically false.

Those are extremely reputable sources, Mick as they're published by the Government. If you were ranking source accuracy, they would be at the top and sites like RT and InfoWars at the bottom. You may not agree with 100% of their conclusions but you should be able to both understand and agree with a lot of the information in there.

Mick 24-06-2019 12:08

Re: Brexit
 
You suddenly trust this government, because it fits squarely with your agenda.

nomadking 24-06-2019 12:17

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36000038)
If you read this article that Angua linked to, it explains the recruitment question and the New IRA's interest in the border.

The first time that I've heard about our continually pandering to the New IRA is in your post. As far as I'm aware, no one is suggesting that. However, I'm sure you appreciate that it's better not to adopt policies that increase support for terrorism if you can avoid it.

Quote:

The New IRA, one of a small number of groups that opposes Northern Ireland’s 1998 peace deal,
It's just a unsubstantiated claim by them. Every time people say we must or mustn't do X, because of the peace process, is purposefully and blatantly pandering to the terrorists.

1andrew1 24-06-2019 12:23

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36000225)
You suddenly trust this government, because it fits squarely with your agenda.

It's about looking at the source of the material and its purpose.

I think it's right to be sceptical of Government literature issued to households by a Remain government encouraging people to vote remain.

But if a Government commissions analysis to help it plan for different scenarios and then tries to prevent such information falling into the public domain, I wouldn't be as sceptical.

---------- Post added at 12:23 ---------- Previous post was at 12:21 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36000226)
It's just a unsubstantiated claim by them. Every time people say we must or mustn't do X, because of the peace process, is purposefully and blatantly pandering to the terrorists.

No because as you've highlighted, they don't believe in the peace process.

Carth 24-06-2019 13:09

Re: Brexit
 
Just my opinion on this . .

You can have as much expert analysis, profiling, research, forecasts etc etc as you like, but it's the way the information is finally presented (and the 'keywords' used therein) at the target that sway the reader in many cases.

Interpretation/Presentation . . open to human fallibility

1andrew1 24-06-2019 13:13

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36000236)
Just my opinion on this . .

You can have as much expert analysis, profiling, research, forecasts etc etc as you like, but it's the way the information is finally presented (and the 'keywords' used therein) at the target that sway the reader in many cases.

Interpretation/Presentation . . open to human fallibility

Agreed.

In terms of the Government reports Ian linked to, they will have been through robust processes with many people challenging them and checking them to minimise human fallibility. In terms of other sources, that's not often a given.

I think it's also useful to understand the purpose of the information including knowing who it's intended audience is.

ianch99 24-06-2019 13:40

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36000238)
Agreed.

In terms of the Government reports Ian linked to, they will have been through robust processes with many people challenging them and checking them to minimise human fallibility. In terms of other sources, that's not often a given.

I think it's also useful to understand the purpose of the information including knowing who it's intended audience is.

Look, let's be honest here. You can present as many reasoned arguments with supporting, fact-based analysis as you like but if people have been sold something that aligns with their political & personal aspirations then you are going to have your work cut out to dissuade them.

The closest parallels are belief systems like religion or the Flat Earth concept: as Mick said, "it’s about believing". Faith demands no proof by definition. The problem we have is this: you can believe any religion and you can sign up to the Flat Earth belief and all it affects is you (and possibly your family). However, when a minority of the electorate drags the entire country to a place where there is a clear & present danger to the UK economy then it matters. It matters because you drag the rest of us there as well.

Hugh 24-06-2019 21:56

Re: Brexit
 
I love it when people compare the Millennium Bug with Brexit (and then put "lol").

The MB was a real issue, just like Brexit, and there were a number of issues which if not identified and resolved, would have a severely adverse impact on every day life.

The difference between the MB and Brexit is that no one said about the MB "don’t worry, it’ll be fine, you’re worrying over nothing, just let it happen and we’ll sort it out later, you’re just scaremongering".

Ask anyone who worked in IT for the years leading up to Y2K about the amount of time, resources, and money that was put into identifying and fixing potential issues - the reason hardly anything went wrong is because we identified and resolved the problem, not denied there was a problem.

But I suppose all the "experts" who put the time and effort in didn’t know what they were talking about...

1andrew1 24-06-2019 22:29

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36000300)
I love it when people compare the Millennium Bug with Brexit (and then put "lol").

The MB was a real issue, just like Brexit, and there were a number of issues which if not identified and resolved, would have a severely adverse impact on every day life.

The difference between the MB and Brexit is that no one said about the MB "don’t worry, it’ll be fine, you’re worrying over nothing, just let it happen and we’ll sort it out later, you’re just scaremongering".

Ask anyone who worked in IT for the years leading up to Y2K about the amount of time, resources, and money that was put into identifying and fixing potential issues - the reason hardly anything went wrong is because we identified and resolved the problem, not denied there was a problem.

But I suppose all the "experts" who put the time and effort in didn’t know what they were talking about...

In fairness, it was me who put lol but Mick who raised the comparison in his post, but I get your point about the behind-the-scenes work that prevented a disaster.

ianch99 24-06-2019 23:29

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36000300)
I love it when people compare the Millennium Bug with Brexit (and then put "lol").

The MB was a real issue, just like Brexit, and there were a number of issues which if not identified and resolved, would have a severely adverse impact on every day life.

The difference between the MB and Brexit is that no one said about the MB "don’t worry, it’ll be fine, you’re worrying over nothing, just let it happen and we’ll sort it out later, you’re just scaremongering".

Ask anyone who worked in IT for the years leading up to Y2K about the amount of time, resources, and money that was put into identifying and fixing potential issues - the reason hardly anything went wrong is because we identified and resolved the problem, not denied there was a problem.

But I suppose all the "experts" who put the time and effort in didn’t know what they were talking about...

I don't get it, when the "experts" said there would be a problem, Y2K had not yet happened so surely they should have been dismissed as scaremongers? I mean until something happens it's not real, right?

TheDaddy 25-06-2019 01:12

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36000300)
I love it when people compare the Millennium Bug with Brexit (and then put "lol").

The MB was a real issue, just like Brexit, and there were a number of issues which if not identified and resolved, would have a severely adverse impact on every day life.

The difference between the MB and Brexit is that no one said about the MB "don’t worry, it’ll be fine, you’re worrying over nothing, just let it happen and we’ll sort it out later, you’re just scaremongering".

Ask anyone who worked in IT for the years leading up to Y2K about the amount of time, resources, and money that was put into identifying and fixing potential issues - the reason hardly anything went wrong is because we identified and resolved the problem, not denied there was a problem.

But I suppose all the "experts" who put the time and effort in didn’t know what they were talking about...

No one listens to experts anymore Hugh, according to Arron Banks all we need do is believe, who'd have thought he'd be such a hippy snowflake

OLD BOY 25-06-2019 07:45

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000305)
I don't get it, when the "experts" said there would be a problem, Y2K had not yet happened so surely they should have been dismissed as scaremongers? I mean until something happens it's not real, right?

Except that the reason for the concern was explained, and it was logical.

The Brexit scaremongering does not take into account the benefits of leaving and is illogical.

---------- Post added at 07:45 ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36000307)
No one listens to experts anymore Hugh, according to Arron Banks all we need do is believe, who'd have thought he'd be such a hippy snowflake

Those experts who keep changing their minds about what food is good for you (and which is now proved to be wrong)? Who are only just beginning to realise that low carb diets are better for avoiding Type 2 Diabetes? Who keep getting their economics forecasts wrong? Who told us we were heading for an ice age?

There comes a point when you just have to use a little common sense to work out what may or may not be true.

Damien 25-06-2019 08:09

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000311)
Those experts who keep changing their minds about what food is good for you (and which is now proved to be wrong)? Who are only just beginning to realise that low carb diets are better for avoiding Type 2 Diabetes? Who keep getting their economics forecasts wrong? Who told us we were heading for an ice age?

There comes a point when you just have to use a little common sense to work out what may or may not be true.

It takes time to learn things. Especially when it comes to food where you cannot have a proper control group. These people work on the best knowledge of the time and then adjust as they learn more. We know a lot more about nutrition than we did 100 years ago and we'll know more in another 100 years and the people who'll be responsible for that are the experts you dismiss.

Maggy 25-06-2019 08:19

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36000236)
Just my opinion on this . .

You can have as much expert analysis, profiling, research, forecasts etc etc as you like, but it's the way the information is finally presented (and the 'keywords' used therein) at the target that sway the reader in many cases.

Interpretation/Presentation . . open to human fallibility

:tu:

---------- Post added at 08:19 ---------- Previous post was at 08:18 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36000300)
I love it when people compare the Millennium Bug with Brexit (and then put "lol").

The MB was a real issue, just like Brexit, and there were a number of issues which if not identified and resolved, would have a severely adverse impact on every day life.

The difference between the MB and Brexit is that no one said about the MB "don’t worry, it’ll be fine, you’re worrying over nothing, just let it happen and we’ll sort it out later, you’re just scaremongering".

Ask anyone who worked in IT for the years leading up to Y2K about the amount of time, resources, and money that was put into identifying and fixing potential issues - the reason hardly anything went wrong is because we identified and resolved the problem, not denied there was a problem.

But I suppose all the "experts" who put the time and effort in didn’t know what they were talking about...

:tu:

TheDaddy 25-06-2019 09:28

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000311)
Except that the reason for the concern was explained, and it was logical.

The Brexit scaremongering does not take into account the benefits of leaving and is illogical.

---------- Post added at 07:45 ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 ----------



Those experts who keep changing their minds about what food is good for you (and which is now proved to be wrong)? Who are only just beginning to realise that low carb diets are better for avoiding Type 2 Diabetes? Who keep getting their economics forecasts wrong? Who told us we were heading for an ice age?

There comes a point when you just have to use a little common sense to work out what may or may not be true.

Patrick Minford is one of the experts who makes a habit of getting it wrong, he's mogg and farages go to economist, he claims agriculture and manufacturing will have to be sacrificed for brexit, is he wrong again?

ianch99 25-06-2019 09:35

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000311)
Except that the reason for the concern was explained, and it was logical.

The Brexit scaremongering does not take into account the benefits of leaving and is illogical.

But noone has provided a worked example of these benefits especially when offset against the negative aspects. You are just hiding behind a wall of noise: shout "scaremonger", "Project Frear", etc. when someone asks you to back up your claims.

It is not an unreasonable proposition is it? To ask for something, anything to backup the claims? Your approach to use "common sense" to predict what will happen is just bonkers.

---------- Post added at 09:35 ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36000323)
Patrick Minford is one of the experts who makes a habit of getting it wrong, he's mogg and farages go to economist, he claims agriculture and manufacturing will have to be sacrificed for brexit, is he wrong again?

Specifically the car industry:


OLD BOY 25-06-2019 09:51

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36000313)
It takes time to learn things. Especially when it comes to food where you cannot have a proper control group. These people work on the best knowledge of the time and then adjust as they learn more. We know a lot more about nutrition than we did 100 years ago and we'll know more in another 100 years and the people who'll be responsible for that are the experts you dismiss.

Which of course, means that 'experts' can be wrong, which is all I'm saying. To put the amount of faith in experts that some people do ignores the fact that they have been proved wrong before many times simply because of a misunderstanding or no awareness of the full facts.

Economic forecasts are no different and yet despite the examples given of the number of occasions they have been proved wrong, if these forecasts 'prove' a person's point of view, then this becomes part of their mindset.

There is also the other elephant in the room. Scientists and economists actually disagree amongst themselves. For all these reasons, trying to find some Biblical truth from expert opinions is simply delusional. Listen to what they say, of course, but then apply the common sense test.

---------- Post added at 09:51 ---------- Previous post was at 09:48 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36000324)

But noone has provided a worked example of these benefits especially when offset against the negative aspects. You are just hiding behind a wall of noise: shout "scaremonger", "Project Frear", etc. when someone asks you to back up your claims.

It is not an unreasonable proposition is it? To ask for something, anything to backup the claims? Your approach to use "common sense" to predict what will happen is just bonkers.

Er, what about increased trade with the rest off the world, for a start? :rolleyes:

Mr K 25-06-2019 10:09

Re: Brexit
 
One of the very minor perks of Brexit, is seeing how the deluded dreams turn into nightmares. Spoilt of course by being part of it all....

TheDaddy 25-06-2019 10:16

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000326)
Er, what about increased trade with the rest off the world, for a start? :rolleyes:

What will we sell the world the day after we leave that we didn't sell them the day before we left?

tweetiepooh 25-06-2019 10:22

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36000300)
I love it when people compare the Millennium Bug with Brexit (and then put "lol").

The MB was a real issue, just like Brexit, and there were a number of issues which if not identified and resolved, would have a severely adverse impact on every day life.

The difference between the MB and Brexit is that no one said about the MB "don’t worry, it’ll be fine, you’re worrying over nothing, just let it happen and we’ll sort it out later, you’re just scaremongering".

Ask anyone who worked in IT for the years leading up to Y2K about the amount of time, resources, and money that was put into identifying and fixing potential issues - the reason hardly anything went wrong is because we identified and resolved the problem, not denied there was a problem.

But I suppose all the "experts" who put the time and effort in didn’t know what they were talking about...

And what happened ... nothing (or nearly nothing).

What was the response - what a waste, all that effort and nothing went wrong what a waste vs phew, we did it, nothing went wrong, money well spent.

The same will happen with Brexit or any other future.

Some will say it went well and the right choice other will say the opposite. In this case we can add it would be better if or it would be worse if.

Damien 25-06-2019 10:40

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36000335)
And what happened ... nothing (or nearly nothing).

What was the response - what a waste, all that effort and nothing went wrong what a waste vs phew, we did it, nothing went wrong, money well spent.

I am confused.

Are you saing it's a waste because nothing went wrong?

Or you saying people will perceive to have been a waste precisely because nothing went wrong as a result of the problem being addressed?

Chris 25-06-2019 10:47

Re: Brexit
 
That confused me too. I think he’s saying different groups of people said one thing or the other about the millennium bug, and different groups of people will likewise say one thing or another about Brexit.

pip08456 25-06-2019 11:03

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Countries such as Italy, Russia, and South Korea had done little to prepare for Y2K. They had no more technological problems than those countries, like the U.S., that spent millions of dollars to combat the problem.

Due to the lack of results, many people dismissed the Y2K bug as a hoax or an end-of-the-world cult.
Link

Damien 25-06-2019 11:09

Re: Brexit
 
Y2K was a known problem with a known solution. It isn't a hoax or a myth, it was a programming issue people understand. No one can tell you precisely why some systems were less vulnerable than others without understanding how that system handled dates and the consequences to those systems of the dates being wrong. However anyone who maintained such systems at the turn of the century would have had first-hand knowledge of what they needed to do and what the consequences would have been had they not. There are literally people out there who directly would have seen these things.

The article linked above points out some of the possible problems. The Italy/Russia/South Korean thing is a red-herring since we don't really have an idea of how much software they had to maintain at a state-level rather than using private companies which fixed the issue or working from software written in countries which deployed patches to systems running in those countries.

papa smurf 25-06-2019 11:38

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36000341)

Sounds like some country's didn't have a market for snake oil ;)

Chris 25-06-2019 11:58

Re: Brexit
 
I worked for a major hotel company at the time, which tested its reservation system and discovered it would just stop working when the date flipped over. There was a real problem that cost time and money to fix. However it was a very well understood problem several years ahead of time so planning and implementing the fix wasn’t the end of the world; not fixing it, however, would have had serious repercussions for a business with global operations employing tens of thousands of people.

Nevertheless there was a Y2K operations room staffed all night of the millennium. It did not have to deal with any problems but that’s because everything had been identified and patched.

Mr K 25-06-2019 12:06

Re: Brexit
 
Think this has gone a bit off topic. However don't blame anyone tbh ! ;)

tweetiepooh 26-06-2019 10:49

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36000337)
I am confused.

Are you saing it's a waste because nothing went wrong?

Or you saying people will perceive to have been a waste precisely because nothing went wrong as a result of the problem being addressed?

I'm saying that after the event some people said it was a waste of time and money. I knew it wasn't as I had to rewrite much of the hospital system I was working on. Fortunately the data store was compliant, just the application needed to add the century. We had to add bits of code to move the epoch so 2 digit years would work also - had to handle past and future dates correctly. We had it ready well before 1999.

Brexit is different but if things go well those who support it will say they said so (in advance) those against will say it would be even better if we remained. If things go badly those who oppose will say told you so, those who support will blame the opposers.

Bit like farmers who are never happy with the weather. Whatever the Brexit outcome some will not be happy.

Maggy 26-06-2019 10:50

Re: Brexit
 
Topic?

papa smurf 26-06-2019 14:28

Re: Brexit
 
Boris 'vows to IGNORE MPs efforts to block No Deal' as poll shows Britain wants Brexit more than ever: 57% now want to leave EU (MORE than at the referendum) and 28% would be happy to crash out


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-leave-EU.html


Boris Johnson will simply steamroller attempts by MPs to block a No Deal Brexit, his allies said today, as a new poll suggested Britain wants to leave the EU more than ever.


So it's 57% v 43% now

OLD BOY 26-06-2019 14:39

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36000508)
Boris 'vows to IGNORE MPs efforts to block No Deal' as poll shows Britain wants Brexit more than ever: 57% now want to leave EU (MORE than at the referendum) and 28% would be happy to crash out


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-leave-EU.html


Boris Johnson will simply steamroller attempts by MPs to block a No Deal Brexit, his allies said today, as a new poll suggested Britain wants to leave the EU more than ever.


So it's 57% v 43% now

It will be an Article 28 managed Brexit.

papa smurf 26-06-2019 14:44

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000511)
It will be an Article 28 managed Brexit.

It sounds like an article two fingers brexit to me.

OLD BOY 26-06-2019 16:08

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36000513)
It sounds like an article two fingers brexit to me.

I think there are many who will be surprised at how straight forward this turns out to be in the end. A few weeks ago I was castigated on here for ‘falling’ for that Article 28 proposition just because some ‘expert’ remainders said it was impossible and that clearly it couldn’t be done!

Well, Boris will see about that. Look and learn, guys!

Mr K 26-06-2019 16:15

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000519)
I think there are many who will be surprised at how straight forward this turns out to be in the end. A few weeks ago I was castigated on here for ‘falling’ for that Article 28 proposition just because some ‘expert’ remainders said it was impossible and that clearly it couldn’t be done!

Well, Boris will see about that. Look and learn, guys!


I'm bookmarking this post ;)

OLD BOY 26-06-2019 16:29

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36000521)
I'm bookmarking this post ;)

Please do, and don’t accidentally lose it when it comes to pass!

jonbxx 26-06-2019 16:59

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000519)
I think there are many who will be surprised at how straight forward this turns out to be in the end. A few weeks ago I was castigated on here for ‘falling’ for that Article 28 proposition just because some ‘expert’ remainders said it was impossible and that clearly it couldn’t be done!

Well, Boris will see about that. Look and learn, guys!

Article 28 is difficult as at requires the non-objection of all WTO members.

Last I heard, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Uruguay, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Thailand, China, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, Argentina, Colombia, Nicaragua and Ecuador weren't happy at our proposed schedule under article 28.

I haven't seen much movement recently on this so hopefully there is some good news soon.

denphone 26-06-2019 17:03

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000523)
Please do, and don’t accidentally lose it when it comes to pass!

Like Theresa May l suppose...;)

OLD BOY 26-06-2019 17:19

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36000527)
Article 28 is difficult as at requires the non-objection of all WTO members.

Last I heard, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Uruguay, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Thailand, China, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, Argentina, Colombia, Nicaragua and Ecuador weren't happy at our proposed schedule under article 28.

I haven't seen much movement recently on this so hopefully there is some good news soon.

Yes, although I understand that it takes a couple of years to get these cases to court, by which time we should have the trade deal with the EU.

jonbxx 26-06-2019 18:48

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000532)
Yes, although I understand that it takes a couple of years to get these cases to court, by which time we should have the trade deal with the EU.

So we should break WTO rules and ask nicely for other trade deals from countries like the US, Canada, China and Australia who are objecting at the same time?

One thought is that it will be interesting how the EUs own Article 28 negotiations will affect things with future deals. I understand quite a few countries aren't happy with their proposals either.

Dave42 26-06-2019 21:23

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000532)
Yes, although I understand that it takes a couple of years to get these cases to court, by which time we should have the trade deal with the EU.

are you on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

Mr K 26-06-2019 21:31

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36000548)
see your living on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

It's all about 'belief' Dave, facts mean nothing.

Clearly you are an unbeliever, however you will be blamed for 'negative vibes' when it all doesn't work out....

Carth 26-06-2019 23:03

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36000548)
are you on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

I guess a lot depends on how quickly both parties want a deal, nobody wants to lose trade - either way

1andrew1 26-06-2019 23:50

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36000548)
are you on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

You need to believe more and you will see a unicorn.

Maggy 27-06-2019 08:14

Re: Brexit
 
How about actually debating the topic and stop making silly digs at others.

OLD BOY 27-06-2019 10:04

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36000538)
So we should break WTO rules and ask nicely for other trade deals from countries like the US, Canada, China and Australia who are objecting at the same time?

One thought is that it will be interesting how the EUs own Article 28 negotiations will affect things with future deals. I understand quite a few countries aren't happy with their proposals either.

Article 28 is a GATT provision, so it is not illegal!

---------- Post added at 10:04 ---------- Previous post was at 10:02 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36000548)
are you on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

Not between the UK and the EU, it won't. We already meet their standards, so it will not take anywhere near as long as it did for the Canada deal.


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