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I have no problem with either. The DUP may have other ideas. |
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You are just being taken in by the Project Fear hype and the attempts by remainers and the EU to muddy the waters. |
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If you disagree, prove it with facts and argument. The land of No Deal has no sunlit uplands running wild with unicorns I am afraid. |
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I can't see much changing now. The previous talking-up of the likelihood of Greece, Spain, the Netherlands and Ireland leaving the EU seems to have been more wishful thinking than wholesome facts. |
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You cannot tell others to prove something when you don’t bother to prove what you’re saying is even remotely true. |
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To me, ianch99 is not asking for perfect evidence but something equivalent to that which shows we will be worse off and not just optimistic phrases. |
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What's your post #3612 on about then? |
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1) Why should the IRA etc be that bothered about the border? 2) Why should we have to continually pander to them? |
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The first time that I've heard about our continually pandering to the New IRA is in your post. As far as I'm aware, no one is suggesting that. However, I'm sure you appreciate that it's better not to adopt policies that increase support for terrorism if you can avoid it. |
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Any system that of necessity closes off roads between RoI & Ni will cause problems with the GFA. Any system that is not robust enough will cause problems with WTO rules. Simple things, like milk being collected from farms both sides of the border, bottled on one side and sold on the other. This falls foul of Country of Origin rules when we leave the EU. Then there is the problem of those pesky migrants, who travel to RoI under FoM, then cross into NI through one of these unchecked borders. Shove checkpoints in and the New IRA will target them. There is no technology that can cope with remote checking of tanker full of milk from either side of the border, let alone simple checks on goods. Move the border to the Irish Sea and the DUP will kick off. NI farmers are particularly vulnerable to cheap beef imports. Simplest solution is reunification. Would the DUP support the government if this was even whispered, let alone supported? |
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What you do not do, although this is now the popular approach, is to invent a possibility based on no credible evidence and say this is going to happen. ---------- Post added at 09:28 ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 ---------- Quote:
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Part of what’s worrying Varadkar right now is that Northern Ireland is still a money pit, and a fractious one. A major world economy like the UK has the resources to deal with it. Ireland does not. The Irish neither want nor need Northern Ireland on their plate right now. It suits them to have influence without ever having to pay for it. I agree with you, Brexit is likely to hasten Irish reunification, but that doesn’t worry me to the extent that that has always been the endgame; just one nobody dared say out loud. It should concern all of us that doing it too soon could cause some problems, but I absolutely don’t agree with the argument that says we shouldn’t do Brexit because it’s too difficult. For me, that simply reinforces the argument that our ongoing entanglement with the EU is de facto eroding our sovereignty. |
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Those that you claim are more knowledgeable are far from knowledgeable, they are still basing their negative presumptions on forecasts and as I said, these are not evidence in the slightest. So perhaps stop demanding others have to prove something, when you continue to not do the same thing! |
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even Liam Fox admits gatt 24 claim is not true
BBC Politics Verified account @BBCPolitics 2h 2 hours ago More Liam Fox on Boris Johnson’s ‘GATT 24’ #Brexit claims: “It isn’t true, that’s the problem” The trade secretary tells #Marr that the argument from Boris Johnson, that we can use world trade rules to avoid tariffs after Brexit, “isn’t true” http://bbc.in/2tnzxS0 |
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Basically johnson is lying to our faces just like he did in 2016. He seems a good fit for the Prime Minister of Brexitland. |
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If the weatherman forecasts it's going to rain on Wednesday but it does no such thing on the day, that is not evidence, it's a prediction just like your negative remainer fantasies of chaos are predictions. You cannot cast forecasts as evidence, evidence is by definition something that has happened and witnessed to be fact-based. Predictions and opinions and forecasts are not and never will be evidence, so stop casting them as such and stop asking others for evidence when you don't present any. |
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Now, please present the available body of facts or information that indicates that No Deal is advantageous to this country. As to the request to stop asking for evidence to backup fantasy claims that could directly disadvantage me and my children, .. no chance .. |
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https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/
In the run up to our exit planned for 29 March 2019 the EU passed a number of measures to ensure continuity if the UK left without signing the Withdrawal Treaty. Measures included an aviation agreement to ensure the planes fly, a haulage agreement to allow road transport to continue, a rail agreement, “legal certainty for ship operators”, compensation for EU fishing businesses if they lose access to UK waters, continuity for students currently in the Erasmus programme, and more time for the Peace and Interreg programmes for Ireland and Northern Ireland.[ |
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This is lazy populist blogging. If these areas will not be impacted by No Deal, he would of course of provided the links to said measures to back up his claims. But he didn't ... says it all really. |
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I mean, the UK Government, the majority of Parliament, the CBI and countless other people seem to disagree with Mr Redwood. Obviously they are all wrong and there will be no adverse affects of No Deal .... or may be Mr Redword is telling tales (again)? |
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You are blind to facts and reason. Get out of your Tory membership bubble and live in the real world for a while. You claim something will happen? Fine but back it up with reasoning and evidence. If you cannot, it is just that, a claim .. |
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Irish border issue could be solved in three years
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Too busy eating Gelato in Rome to google... :D |
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Enjoy Rome. :) |
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Also. I told you to stop demanding others provide evidence when you never do. Ignore me again ianch, at your own peril. :mad: |
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Surely the only true debates you can have apart from philosophical ones are information-based ones. This should be commended and not denigrated. You can never assume another's motives here.
The alternative is of course the I'm right/No, I'm right argument which doesn't get us anywhere. Of course, the information cited may not ever be perfect and probabilities may be attached to it. But we're all logical human beings so should be able to factor this in. |
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The problem here is Brexit has not occurred so there is no evidence of fact. Remainers want to write off Brexit because they are so against it, and put forward claims of chaos. The so called experts said the millennium bug would be a massive issue, a disaster for the tech industry, it wasn’t. They said not joining the EURO, would be catastrophic for the British Economy, it wasn’t. You and ianch telling the rest of us that this expert opinion or forecast for the millennium bug and not joining the Euro, is evidence, because that is quite frankly, bullshit. We are a single country that has voted to become independent again, of the EU, we do not need to be in their overpriced club to do trade. But we’re too busy here, well, some of us are, trying to still argue the toss that we should leave or not, that boat has sailed. The UK voted to leave. |
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https://assets.publishing.service.go...alysis__1_.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.go...March_2019.pdf Look, you just don't care what anyone says about what is likely to happen, you just want the outcome at any cost. I get that but I care what happens to this country and I care what happens to my children. If someone says No Deal will not adversely impact this country, like John Redwood does, I will say prove it .. every time .. |
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And It’s not about caring, it’s about believing. Past Forecasts and disaster predictions have been historically false. |
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2) I've never mentioned the Millennium Bug (what a joke that was, lol) or advocated joining the Euro or we will suffer on this forum. Experts do sometimes get things wrong but mostly they get it right - experts built this forum's software, the device you have typed into and the power station that supplies the electricity for doing so. 3) Forecasts are not bullshit. They represent the best available information out there and those supplied to the Government are as impartial as possible and not produced by some underground pact of Remainers. Indeed, the Government was not keen for them to be published. |
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BREAKING: Brexit Party to challenge Peterborough by-election result amid mounting evidence convicted electoral fraudster Tariq Mahmood acted as an “agent” to Labour candidate @LisaForbes_
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You suddenly trust this government, because it fits squarely with your agenda.
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I think it's right to be sceptical of Government literature issued to households by a Remain government encouraging people to vote remain. But if a Government commissions analysis to help it plan for different scenarios and then tries to prevent such information falling into the public domain, I wouldn't be as sceptical. ---------- Post added at 12:23 ---------- Previous post was at 12:21 ---------- Quote:
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Just my opinion on this . .
You can have as much expert analysis, profiling, research, forecasts etc etc as you like, but it's the way the information is finally presented (and the 'keywords' used therein) at the target that sway the reader in many cases. Interpretation/Presentation . . open to human fallibility |
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In terms of the Government reports Ian linked to, they will have been through robust processes with many people challenging them and checking them to minimise human fallibility. In terms of other sources, that's not often a given. I think it's also useful to understand the purpose of the information including knowing who it's intended audience is. |
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The closest parallels are belief systems like religion or the Flat Earth concept: as Mick said, "it’s about believing". Faith demands no proof by definition. The problem we have is this: you can believe any religion and you can sign up to the Flat Earth belief and all it affects is you (and possibly your family). However, when a minority of the electorate drags the entire country to a place where there is a clear & present danger to the UK economy then it matters. It matters because you drag the rest of us there as well. |
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I love it when people compare the Millennium Bug with Brexit (and then put "lol").
The MB was a real issue, just like Brexit, and there were a number of issues which if not identified and resolved, would have a severely adverse impact on every day life. The difference between the MB and Brexit is that no one said about the MB "don’t worry, it’ll be fine, you’re worrying over nothing, just let it happen and we’ll sort it out later, you’re just scaremongering". Ask anyone who worked in IT for the years leading up to Y2K about the amount of time, resources, and money that was put into identifying and fixing potential issues - the reason hardly anything went wrong is because we identified and resolved the problem, not denied there was a problem. But I suppose all the "experts" who put the time and effort in didn’t know what they were talking about... |
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The Brexit scaremongering does not take into account the benefits of leaving and is illogical. ---------- Post added at 07:45 ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 ---------- Quote:
There comes a point when you just have to use a little common sense to work out what may or may not be true. |
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It is not an unreasonable proposition is it? To ask for something, anything to backup the claims? Your approach to use "common sense" to predict what will happen is just bonkers. ---------- Post added at 09:35 ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 ---------- Quote:
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Economic forecasts are no different and yet despite the examples given of the number of occasions they have been proved wrong, if these forecasts 'prove' a person's point of view, then this becomes part of their mindset. There is also the other elephant in the room. Scientists and economists actually disagree amongst themselves. For all these reasons, trying to find some Biblical truth from expert opinions is simply delusional. Listen to what they say, of course, but then apply the common sense test. ---------- Post added at 09:51 ---------- Previous post was at 09:48 ---------- Quote:
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One of the very minor perks of Brexit, is seeing how the deluded dreams turn into nightmares. Spoilt of course by being part of it all....
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What was the response - what a waste, all that effort and nothing went wrong what a waste vs phew, we did it, nothing went wrong, money well spent. The same will happen with Brexit or any other future. Some will say it went well and the right choice other will say the opposite. In this case we can add it would be better if or it would be worse if. |
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Are you saing it's a waste because nothing went wrong? Or you saying people will perceive to have been a waste precisely because nothing went wrong as a result of the problem being addressed? |
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That confused me too. I think he’s saying different groups of people said one thing or the other about the millennium bug, and different groups of people will likewise say one thing or another about Brexit.
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Y2K was a known problem with a known solution. It isn't a hoax or a myth, it was a programming issue people understand. No one can tell you precisely why some systems were less vulnerable than others without understanding how that system handled dates and the consequences to those systems of the dates being wrong. However anyone who maintained such systems at the turn of the century would have had first-hand knowledge of what they needed to do and what the consequences would have been had they not. There are literally people out there who directly would have seen these things.
The article linked above points out some of the possible problems. The Italy/Russia/South Korean thing is a red-herring since we don't really have an idea of how much software they had to maintain at a state-level rather than using private companies which fixed the issue or working from software written in countries which deployed patches to systems running in those countries. |
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I worked for a major hotel company at the time, which tested its reservation system and discovered it would just stop working when the date flipped over. There was a real problem that cost time and money to fix. However it was a very well understood problem several years ahead of time so planning and implementing the fix wasn’t the end of the world; not fixing it, however, would have had serious repercussions for a business with global operations employing tens of thousands of people.
Nevertheless there was a Y2K operations room staffed all night of the millennium. It did not have to deal with any problems but that’s because everything had been identified and patched. |
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Think this has gone a bit off topic. However don't blame anyone tbh ! ;)
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Brexit is different but if things go well those who support it will say they said so (in advance) those against will say it would be even better if we remained. If things go badly those who oppose will say told you so, those who support will blame the opposers. Bit like farmers who are never happy with the weather. Whatever the Brexit outcome some will not be happy. |
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Boris 'vows to IGNORE MPs efforts to block No Deal' as poll shows Britain wants Brexit more than ever: 57% now want to leave EU (MORE than at the referendum) and 28% would be happy to crash out
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-leave-EU.html Boris Johnson will simply steamroller attempts by MPs to block a No Deal Brexit, his allies said today, as a new poll suggested Britain wants to leave the EU more than ever. So it's 57% v 43% now |
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Well, Boris will see about that. Look and learn, guys! |
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I'm bookmarking this post ;) |
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Last I heard, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Uruguay, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Thailand, China, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, Argentina, Colombia, Nicaragua and Ecuador weren't happy at our proposed schedule under article 28. I haven't seen much movement recently on this so hopefully there is some good news soon. |
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One thought is that it will be interesting how the EUs own Article 28 negotiations will affect things with future deals. I understand quite a few countries aren't happy with their proposals either. |
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Clearly you are an unbeliever, however you will be blamed for 'negative vibes' when it all doesn't work out.... |
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How about actually debating the topic and stop making silly digs at others.
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