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Of course May's "deal" is worse than being in the EU. I don't think that's in doubt. What he really means is that properly leaving is a better deal than either of those. He's maintained that throughout. It's only by willful misinterpretation that could he mean remaining was the best option. ;)
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oh come on, that's like offering a bloke the choice between a broken kneecap or a broken elbow . . both are as bad
Where was the 3rd choice of smiling and walking away? |
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Don't take the piss - Time to move on and stop being bloody petty - you have totally misinterpreted/taken out of context what has been said.
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It’s like saying Dominic Raab was offered the choice of amputating one leg or both legs, he then says given the choice he’d prefer to only lose one leg. Headline “Raab says losing one leg is great deal” Give over. No move on with a decent point. |
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Mrs May keeps banging on about this/our United Kingdom... Sorry to say Mrs May we have a Disunited Kingdom.... FAIL.
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I can think of a 3rd option that quite a few of us may applaud :Yes:
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If parliament vote down May’s deal then No Deal is a real option. Faced with that the EU may consider tweaking May’s deal. |
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In amongst all the excitement of the last few days I missed the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Liz Truss, using the line "we are in serious danger of not leaving at all".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06sffw4 These aren't accidents. This is co-ordinated. Of the 25 members of the Cabinet (plus 4 who attend Cabinet) only eight campaigned to leave in 2016. And one of those is Gove ffs, if he could be the hero post-remain to unite the party and become PM he'd support remain in a heartbeat. Prime Minister Theresa May MP REMAIN Chairman of the Conservative Party Brandon Lewis MP REMAIN Leader of the House of Lords Baroness Evans of Bowes Park PC LEAVE Leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom MP LEAVE Attorney General Geoffrey Cox QC MP LEAVE Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster David Lidington CBE MP REMAIN Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond MP REMAIN Secretary of State for the Home Department Sajid Javid MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Jeremy Hunt MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union Stephen Barclay MP LEAVE Secretary of State for Defence Gavin Williamson CBE MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Justice David Gauke MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Matthew Hancock MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Education Damian Hinds MP REMAIN Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox MP LEAVE Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Greg Clark MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Michael Gove MP LEAVE Secretary of State for Transport Chris Grayling MP LEAVE Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government James Brokenshire MP REMAIN Secretary of State for International Development Penny Mordaunt MP LEAVE Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport Jeremy Wright QC MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Amber Rudd MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Scotland David Mundell MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Wales Alun Cairns MP REMAIN Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Karen Bradley MP REMAIN Also attending cabinet meetings Chief Secretary to the Treasury Elizabeth Truss MP REMAIN Chief Whip Julian Smith MP REMAIN Minister of State for Immigration Caroline Nokes MP REMAIN Minister of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Claire Perry MP REMAIN What do you think the consensus is among them in a choice between leaving with no deal or remain when they sit round a table? |
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Welcome to Planet Reality, the Brexit fairy tale is over. |
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You seem to be under the false impression we have the skill, ability or economic strength to back them into a corner. Do you think if we had that capability we'd have achieved that at some point in the last two years?
If you think that £39bn, our financial commitment for years to come, is going to make or break the EU (annual budget €145bn in 2015) you are simply ignoring the reality. The financial institutions can cover that with lending and spread it across a long enough period for minimal reductions in the EU budget. |
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:D :p: |
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Cameron went there fawning and tipping his cap and got sod all. May, for all her steadfastness, has always been from a position of weakness because although her mantra of “no deal is better than a bad deal” she never believed it, they never believed or for one minute felt threatened by it because they knew she wouldn’t do it. They haven’t been tested by anyone that would look them in the eyes an press the button. Or that they would believe would press the button. Quote:
Well there you go.....again.....arguing with yourself and using others as proxy. I didn’t say or imply that. You have done this countless times. Made a point, argued against the point and tried to pass it off as somebody else’s point. Please stop it. Quote:
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There has been no hard negotiating. The have never felt threatened that we would walk. ---------- Post added at 20:58 ---------- Previous post was at 20:56 ---------- Quote:
However, i’m All in or. All out. Or negotiation has been weak, we should walk and show some backbone. |
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:clap::clap::clap: and they're so subtle about it, they don't think anyone has noticed :D:D |
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While Old Boy isn't advocating this as a course of action, it's definitely out there as an idea we can just walk away from the £39bn and it's somehow tied to the deal. Ignoring that is ignoring reality. So what do we use as our leverage in these discussions, if not the £39bn? The discussion is much wider than just what you say - it's a far bigger issue than anything that only you or I raise. |
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Both sides are as polarised as they have ever been. It’s becoming evermore clear that a binary hard choice is ahead. Remain or no deal. Either could be cataclysmic to the UK. For differing reasons. It entering a very interesting time. We’ll have to wait for parliament’s vote before speculate further. ---------- Post added at 21:05 ---------- Previous post was at 21:03 ---------- Quote:
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How would remain, the status quo,be cataclysmic?
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"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."
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The potential damage (or lack thereof) to the EU should define the extent to which their stance is reasonable or unreasonable to us when weighed against the damage to our economy. All capitalist transactions are based on the relative needs and value to both parties. |
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£341 billion a year, is what we buy from the EU. £39bn is all but a 10th of that. The EU (and it’s members that rely on this trade) will not stand by and see pissed in the wind. |
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Parliament may struggle to retain it’s authority. ---------- Post added at 21:20 ---------- Previous post was at 21:17 ---------- Quote:
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UK exports to the EU: £274bn, 44% of all our exports.
We have a trade surplus due to trade in services which arguably are easier to source from other Member States (or indeed - financial services could move from the UK into EU countries). We have a trade deficit in goods (as in we rely more on the EU for physical items). Could we easily source these from elsewhere? What increased costs will there be in transport for this? Or will we just end up paying more in tariffs? The idea that mutual trade which benefits both parties can be used for us to "hold them over a barrel" is ridiculous in the extreme. |
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Who are you quoting? No one has said that, you’ve made up a quote by nobody and are then using it for your argument. |
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I was referencing the only cataclysm that would result from the status quo being the reaction of those who feel passionately against it. I don't believe this reaction would be physical in the form of civil disobedience or protests. I apologise if anyone interpreted that differently. ---------- Post added at 21:29 ---------- Previous post was at 21:27 ---------- Quote:
Are you now making the contention that you didn't mean that this gives us a significant negotiating advantage? Your actual words: "The EU (and it’s members that rely on this trade) will not stand by and see pissed in the wind." |
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However, I do think: 1) That the court next Thursday will state that Article 50 can be withdrawn 2) That Theresa May will get her deal through Parliament. If the first event happens as I predict, it could make her position stronger as she can argue my Brexit or no Brexit. |
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Ironically, something we clearly have not fully risk assessed and made preparations for which is why our Chancellor is openly saying if we don't back the deal it will be chaos and no deal will cost our economy tens of billions. On your first point Parliament will always retain it's authority. What are you proposing? Revolution? Armed struggle? |
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You proposed what would we use, if not the £39bn, as leverage in our negotiation. I simply advised that £39bn is but our annual trade with the EU, and some countries more than others rely on this. EU negotiators would be wise to factor this in, if it was threatened due to political point scoring rather than sensible decisions. ---------- Post added at 21:43 ---------- Previous post was at 21:40 ---------- Quote:
The silent majority always do their talking at the ballot box. Quote:
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Replace parliament with establishment. |
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We cannot readily import such a significant amount from non-EU territories, there's no guarantees alternative suppliers would exist and if they did that they would have the capacity to deliver for our manufacturing industries that rely on 'just in time' methods. There's no guarantee all such items from out with the EU would meet UK regulatory standards. ---------- Post added at 21:57 ---------- Previous post was at 21:46 ---------- Quote:
I've got bad news the Britannia is a clapped out old boat in the port of Leith attached to a shopping centre for down and outs. How does the "Establishment" loses it's authority? The who idea of an "Establishment" is that they influence both sides of a debate and both main political parties. Who replaces them under a FPTP electoral system? |
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Can you prove that the EU are in a "little castle" or that they have only given a "cursory glance" at their trading arrangements with the UK? You are guessing even more than I am, however in the absence of any meaningful responses to anything I put to you have decided to "play the man" instead of playing the ball. (Note: I've put quotation marks there because it's a footballing expression). I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that non-EU countries don't ordinarily have £300bn of capacity in their manufacturing processes/service capacity readily available in the expectation that another may ditch it's most significant trading partners and urgently need a replacement. It'd be a highly inefficient way to operate. |
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The EU is an evolving monster that wants to take away all national identity and subjugate everything to Brussels and their hegemonic paymasters. |
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The country being ignored by these gave rise to the BNP, this evolved into support for UKIP. Support for UKIP forced the issue of the referendum......and here we are. The referendum was supposed to halt the rise of this parties, and beacon the last election it did. But that before the establishment yet again told the North, that they were stupid.......... |
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Well, with every poll now predicting that a better-informed electorate would majority back remain, Brexiters have been looking around for someone who disagrees with such polls.
I've always thought that you'd need the computational skills of Diane Abbott to think that the electorate would now majority back leave. And it appears I'm right. Diane Abbott has got her magic calculator out and believes that the British public would majority back leave! No further questions m'lord! :D https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8649256.html |
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You don’t know anything, so any proposition is opinion only. I’m happy to read facts and links to back up any of your ramblings. You post very little. |
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By pointing out the challenges my evidence is that we haven’t managed this in two years. You claim it’s because No. 10 is weak negotiating, but can’t prove this either. The fact is Brexit is irrational economically, which you concede, and we are negotiating with the political arm of a trading bloc. |
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Are you proposing we have arrived at this deal from a strong negotiation???? Quote:
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Look everybody - the question to ask is what is the £39 billion buying?
The Leavers will say it buys bugger all under this agreement; it won't even guarantee a trade deal because of the weasel wording of the Protocol. The Remainers will say in that case we shouldn't leave. Given that we're leaving, the Remainers should get real and back No Deal which guarantees us our sovereignty. We are the world's 5th or 6th largest economy and the initial dip will be just a blip. The EU may well collapse anyway, which the Remainers haven't taken into account. |
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics...domestic-storm Interesting final paragraph: Quote:
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And not all polls have said that at all!!! |
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In the end your opinion over our negotiations are irrelevant, and it’s not an effective use of my time to explain when I’m quoting you, quoting ministers, quoting prominent leavers, quoting other posters, speaking from my own perspective or a general pro Brexit perspective. Others appear able to read the narrative and reach a level of understanding. I’m unsure what your difficulty is. It’s circular, and a total sideshow as we continue our journey to remain in the EU on the 30th March 2019. Oh just this once: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=3628 You state here the EU haven’t felt threatened. You then object to me stating that your stance is that we threaten them! |
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Polls for Channel 4 by Survation and for various outlets by YouGov, etc all show a majority for remaining. Which polls support your assertion? |
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The problem with all of the polls is they are within the statistical margin of error. On top of this they remove “don’t know”, which isn’t an option on the actual ballot paper so is it reasonable to weight these the same? How do you split them? If the same as the rest of the poll is that reasonable to assume? If not, how?
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It’s circular, and a total sideshow as we continue our journey to remain in the EU on the 30th March 2019. Quote:
Feeling threatened and being threatening are two different things. |
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Furthermore, there is no incentive for the EU other than to squeeze our pips in the eventual trade negotiations. Leavers & Remainers are united in the declaring the current proposals to be worse than disastrous. But surely the Remainers can concede that the EU is not nice to deal with and there are real grounds for breaking away properly. |
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I fail to see how being nice (or otherwise) comes into it.
The UK are proposing to act in a way that harms the economic interests of both the UK and EU, it’s only sensible and appropriate for the EU to mitigate against this. If, for example, Scotland were to vote for independence do you think they should renege on debts or it’s share of financial commitments to the UK? Should it’s citizens for example be entitled to a UK State Pension (they paid in after all) without Scotland contributing to the cost? Or would you say they should cover that? |
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I agree they have no interest in renegotiating, I just find it interesting that there’s a monetary value to our desperation.
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Interesting article here. Despite jfman's well-argued points, there would not be a Parliamentary majority to remain. So, if came to a no-deal and the current deal and the markets were getting jittery, MPs might just support the current plan despite the opposition against it.
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My prediction relies upon the late sobering reality of no deal hitting people who campaigned to remain in 2016 but “back” leave post-referendum. Kick the can down the road or second referendum become more realistic to validate no deal, and give the politicians an out at future general elections if the economy plunges. |
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It's all a bit of a shambles really isn't it? All to try and keep Cameron his job. It's ended up dividing the country and a causing a potential economic crisis. Dave's doing ok though, talking of a comeback :rolleyes: Remember 'we're 'all in this (mess) together ! '
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And as for the assertion that has been raised that our negotiators "didn’t try hard enough" - I would just point out that the man who also asked for gravity-free areas, telepathy for every citizen and the Beatles to get back together is furious it hasn’t even been attempted. |
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Regarding Scotland, the SNP is a treasonous regime (to take an extreme view) and should be treated with the appropriate degree of disdain. A Scottish Referendum result decided their status in our Union. I dare say that if they voted to,secede, our guvmin would not adopt my attitude. I cheer every time Edinburgh suffers atrocious weather. |
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I’d say there’s something nasty around here, and it’s not the EU.
If you remove all the emotionally driven rhetoric, and wartime references, discussions around Brexit would be much shorter. |
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If you must cheer, wait until it rains on Dundee, or the East End of Glasgow and North Lanarkshire. Although I'd prefer it if you didn't; these, the only parts of Scotland where there was a majority for separation from the UK, are the poorest and most ill-educated communities in the country and they voted yes because they swallowed the SNP's lies about free oil money for everyone. |
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Holyrood...
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As to Scotland, the SNP is plain treasonous in terms of the UK's cohesiveness which is a different sort of nasty. As if you didn't know all that. |
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Everyone else is nasty, I presume England is a beacon of justice and righteousness in the world? Why should the UK remain cohesive, if England doesn't afford the same consideration to our European neighbours? |
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These deals are not amicable accords between friends but transactional relationships in which both sides will try to get the upper hand because they're only concerned with their own growth. A good deal helps both sides, of course, but it's naive to assume that they'll work to help the other side at the expense of their own. This is just the start. We can't flounce away from our first major negotiation as an Independent country because 'they're mean to us'. It's time for a reality check here because the disappointment amongst some Brexiters that is to come if they thought this would all be a cake walk or imagined the Britain of 100 years ago coming back will be very disappointed. |
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On pensions, first your point makes the common sense case for no secession by Scotland; but politics has little to do with common sense. I would expect actuaries to calculate the pension accrual to be sent to an approved fund in Scotland; I wouldn't want anything messy like continuing to pay across a border from the depleted UK. All other financial matters would be settled on the principle of ownership of an asset and for corporations the place of registration. I imagine any UK government would think along those lines; we're not Brussels. And what's your view? ---------- Post added at 17:53 ---------- Previous post was at 17:50 ---------- Quote:
To hell with them. |
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And this is a problem we have since we don't have any other trade deals and when we leave the EU not only do we leave the biggest economic bloc but we also leave the other trade deals we have via them. We become a major economy without a single trade deal. We're in a weak position to walk away from the only path to one we currently have. |
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Others may take the view that would be a 'nasty' and 'spiteful' approach to deny taxpayers what they had paid in. Quote:
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Spain-EU-UK have agreed a deal for Gibraltar.
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That's us sold out the Rock. Northern Ireland next.
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I think there's extreme social and economic problems in this country. Extreme poverty is a reality for far too many. However, those in extreme poverty aren't in that situation because of the EU - they are because of failed UK government policies (both colours) since the 1980s. Nor will they be helped out of that situation if the economy takes a hit. |
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After the referendum, I believe in Democracy, although I didn’t agree with the result, I got fully on board with leaving, because I didn’t want the half in/ half out, if we’re leaving we should bloody well leave, fully and totally. That’s where i’m Coming from. I’m either 100% in or 100% out. People may think that too binary, but I like to keep it simple. Quote:
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It's a betrayal of democracy to deny the public the right to change their mind should they choose to do so. Can you source any quantitative or qualitative research into how we are could become better off as a result of Brexit? Or is it totally unsourced guesswork? After all it could be "50 years" before we find out. (Jacob Rees-Mogg). |
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There are no rules by which EU/Scottish independence or any other referendums could or should take place. We don't have a constitution, or any generally accepted practices, that could not be overcome by the political will of the people however they deem to demonstrate it. Quote:
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Some worrying analysis from Richard Dearlove, a former head of MI6, on the government's Brexit agreement with the EU.
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