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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Well if they do go independent they should NOT be allowed to keep Sterling.
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The SNP does not appear to have a plan on how to make up the huge revenue deficiency that would arise from separation. Incidentally, the analogy with Brexit is just plain wrong. Most Brexiteers saw either better job prospects for themselves or better global trading opportunities. They did not vote to be poorer. That was just Remainer hype. |
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Anyone who thinks that Boris leaving would make any difference is living in fantasy land.
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They begged to be part of us a few hundred years ago when they were bankrupt. What will happen next time they ask, when they realise they can’t make it on their own? |
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No, andrew just likes to argue with everything, I think hes jfmans twin brother :D
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Sounds more like his Wife if you ask me ... :p::p: |
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That doesn't mean that there wasn't an independence movement around before these two aspects came into play. There clearly was as there was a referendum in 2014. ---------- Post added at 12:11 ---------- Previous post was at 12:08 ---------- Quote:
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The fact that both are unpopular north of the border and that polls are now tilting in favour of independence cannot be denied. |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-55803103 The rise in support for independence is not being driven by the completion of Brexit; that was priced in after the 2016 referendum. The way the covid crisis has unfolded and perceptions of how Sturgeon and Boris have handled it are at the root of current polling. Polls like these are largely driven by emotional considerations. Hard practicalities are faced in the polling booth - this is why opposition parties poll well mid-term and then go on to lose the next election. We all like to believe the grass might be greener but when it’s decision time we need to be pretty sure it is before we take the leap. The fundamentals that drove the vote in 2014 haven’t changed. Scotland would pay an exorbitant bill for taking itself out of the UK and would face social and economic upheaval in its relationship with England that would make the problems we presently face at the channel ports look like a Wednesday afternoon in Trumpton. Every single argument against Brexit can be levelled against Scexit, except it’s exponentially worse, because Scotland’s economic and social ties to England run far deeper than those of the UK to the EU, while Scotland’s resources deployable in mitigation of the upheaval are far less. Yet these sorts of questions tend not to be addressed by people answering opinion polls. |
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Sturgeon’s Holyrood government is failing the Scottish people in so many ways, but for some reason they just seem to be sleepwalking through the debris left by the farcical SNP. I used to think the Scots were a canny lot. Now I’m not so sure. |
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Plenty of small countries survive without England, indeed I can’t think of a single country in what used to be Empire desperate to rejoin. If you think Boris isn’t a factor then you’ve not been paying attention. There’s little united about a kingdom where England (and her voters) get the party they want in power (and as a result policy outcomes) far more than voters in Scotland. Of course, it’s because English voters know better. :confused: ---------- Post added at 15:24 ---------- Previous post was at 15:20 ---------- Quote:
It’s not unreasonable for some to conclude we are unfortunately the siamese twin of incompetent policy makers, regardless of whether public health is devolved or not. The Scottish position is they are delivering the vaccine to care homes which it stands to reason is slower. The real question is how quickly each gets to the end of the JCVI lists. Of course independence supporters are extremely unlikely to read headlines from unionist papers anyway. |
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Nursing homes were last week’s excuse incidentally - this week, Sunday’s appalling vaccination rate is being blamed on “reporting lag”. Do try to keep up. ;) *Head cocked slightly to the right and headbutting each syllable |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
And that is a Scot telling another Scot, he's talking bollocks I presume?
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Publish exorbitant amounts of data every day, do it and we will criticise it as commercially sensitive. Thankfully most see through it and long term delivery is more important than whether you have out more doses on a Sunday than a Monday. I think Scotland closing the border with England would cause a significant amount of civil unrest or disobedience from the unionists. Even last month as both Scotland and England had "stay at home" orders for people to stay near home or within their local authority areas it remained a talking point for one side of the fence that the border should stay open. |
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It's mostly behind a paywall*, but you can see enough to see that support for Welsh Independence is growing as you said last month. *Apparently, the Telegraph doesn't check email addresses, so you can put any old junk address in there such as xyz@hotmail.com and it'll let you in. The only trouble is when someone else has used the same junk email address |
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How does England finance anything? Fiscal deficit, over a trillion of debt, recession... |
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He has thus far declined my kind offer, sadly. |
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Welsh GDP per Capita is lower than that of the U.K by quite a bit. The level of debt it could raise and thus spending it could make will would be lower per head than it is now. And that's actually worse than it seems because per person Wales has more spent on it than the U.K average: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...20UK%20average). So losing 10% per head spending even if they were to match U.K's GDP of which they're quite a way behind. I.E Even if Wales could match U.K' proportional level of deficit spending (and the U.K can finance debt very cheaply) there would be a significant shortfall in the level of spending per person in Wales. So it's a valid question to ask what their economic plan is. |
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Fundamentally, the UK makes economic decisions that (by it's own calculations) leave very few of the nations and regions as economic contributors. Wales, and other parts lagging behind on GDP per capita, will never make up the difference in the current constitutional settlement because there's no incentive for London to do so. |
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Both the Scottish and Welsh economy would adjust and make different economic decisions to reflect their newly independent nations but that will take time and it's not certain they'll reach the same levels of wealth. Some small nations manage to do it better than others. Wales is a country of 3 million people. How would it adjust its economy to Independence? Is Wales going to turn Cardiff into a Singapore? Maybe the European Silicon Valley? And if so how is it going to do that whilst competiting against London & Dublin? |
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You are assuming that "wealth" is the only worthwhile measure of success. High GDP (and GDP per capita) counts for little for your citizens have a high cost of living and don't personally see the benefit of it.
Nobody wants necessarily to be Singapore or Silicon Valley. By framing the debate in these terms it narrows the scope of debate, essentially rigging it in favour of the union by emphasising economic uncertainty. The role (and purpose) of the state are equally as important. What (and where) money is spent can be a significant difference between employing local people, in local jobs, paying taxes and profits being siphoned off into tax havens and private consultancies owned by friends of the leadership. |
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Wealth is a pretty key measure of success as it can directly impact people's lives and their cost of living. A low GDP means fewer, less well-paying, jobs. It limits the money the Government has at their disposal to improve the cost of living with what they subsidise, the Welsh NHS for example will be an expensive budget item for the newly independent Wales. As will their pension bill.
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I remember at the last Indy Ref, that knob from Deacon Blue on Question Time pleading the case for a more "fairer" Scotland, like independence would deliver some kind of socialist utopia, bollocks, pull the other one it plays Flower of Scotland. |
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The NHS and pensions are expensive budget items for the UK. Unless England are funding this through sheer generosity these will be somewhat proportionate to the Welsh population in terms of resourcing and costs. The idea that small countries cannot be successful is completely flawed. However they need the economic powers to stimulate investment. "Lower paid" jobs at outset can make these attractive opportunities for international companies looking for well educated, English language workforces at a fraction of the cost you could get in the South East of England. With more service sector/office work moving online with remote working it's inevitably going to change the dynamics and gives the potential to attract investment and corporate tax receipts. Wales will never be able to do this while the game is rigged in favour of the UK. ---------- Post added at 09:20 ---------- Previous post was at 09:19 ---------- Quote:
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You complain that focusing on GDP is ‘rigging’ the debate when the truth you can’t bring yourself to admit is that what it’s actually doing is ‘winning’ the debate. State benefits cost money. Infrastructure like the new Forth road bridge costs the same to build in a country of 5 million as in a country of 60 million. Nationalistic pride is cheap. It’s an indulgence when you need comfort at a time of crisis or you hate the party that’s been running the country for years. Actually putting it into practice has a tangible cost. I’m not sure any nationalist in either Wales or Scotland has yet come to grips with the reality of erecting international frontiers on this island. Are Scottish businesses really going to be happy to fill in those 73 page export documents just to get their goods south of Gretna? Are Welsh businesses going to give up on the border towns close to England that are virtually impossible to get to without using roads that cross the border multiple times? |
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Scotland and Wales would have to make different choices on public expenditure yes, but where we differ is your assumption they couldn't make better choices more representative of their needs and populations. |
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I propose not indulging the Welsh angle any further in this thread incidentally - it's beyond silly. |
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Do we build high speed train networks or high speed broadband networks? These are at the very core of economic development. |
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A major international competitor that sees such great returns on investment and every pound of public expenditure that it can, allegedly, make billions in transfers to the other nations and regions shouldn't be too difficult to emulate.
The purpose of these transfers, other than propping up a neurotic and fragile English nationalism, is to prevent competition and keep those nations in check. |
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Do you have any links, jfman? ---------- Post added at 11:35 ---------- Previous post was at 11:32 ---------- Quote:
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Scotland on its own would never have been able to fund a furlough scheme as the UK has done, and you know it. You picked the wrong example, and it wasn’t even a good one. The UK is building a high speed rail line AND high speed broadband. |
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More speculation Old Boy. Your English nationalism is oozing out of you here.
Small countries had furlough schemes. Small countries have trains. Small countries have broadband. No high speed rail in Scotland, and broadband is being supported by the Scottish Government ahead of Boris and his 2025/2033 commitment. |
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Historically, Wales' incorporation into England was down to medieval feudalism, pure and simple. Were it not for geography facilitating the preservation of language and culture, there would probably be no nationalistic sense of Welshness today that could be said to be any stronger than the distinct regional sense of identity that exists in various parts of England - all of which were themselves feudally incorporated into a unitary state from pre-existing petty Kingdoms. Much the same is of course true within Scotland, as the Picts knew to their cost. Come to think of it, the Scots were much more effective at wiping out Brythonic culture in the land between the Antonine and Hadrian's walls than the English were in Wales. The union between England and Scotland was the favourite idea of the Stuart monarchy, pretty much from the very day James VI went south, was crowned James I of England, and never went back to Scotland again. The logic of unitary control of this one island and its resources, and people whose entangled history means they have for 2,000 years had far more in common than not, predated even the Stuarts. It was fragile, neurotic Scottish nationalism, and the assumption that an independent, foreign England would somehow favour Scotland above its other alliances, that led Scotland to economic ruin at Darien. Ironically that then forced Scots to confront the logic of union (the deal on the table from England being unite with us and we pay off your debts). The deal on the table wasn't half bad, for either party. It gave the English political influence over a bankrupt, chaotic northern neighbour. It gave the Scots political influence over a wealthy, powerful neighbour which from henceforth was compelled to consider Scotland as home territory rather than a foreign competitor. Scots gained immediate access to what were now British colonial possessions. For centuries now, the whole territory has been governed as a unitary state, with its economy managed likewise as a single unit. Nonetheless, Scotland and England exist in parliamentary union, not as an amalgam, and Scotland's distinct legal identity is assured. For this reason, central government spending is identifiable as 'transfers' in Scotland in a way that it isn't when spending occurs in, say, Yorkshire. It is absurd that spending that is identified in this way because Scotland's identity is being consciously respected and assured, is somehow a symbol of English colonialism - a position that has no basis in either history or in current affairs. |
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By the way, you never did provide me with that link. Do you not have....any? |
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Not a fan/supporter of Scottish Independence, but don’t similar sized counties like Denmark, Croatia, New Zealand, Ireland, Finland, etc. manage economically?
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If they do, they wont enjoy anything like the spending per head they do now. The numbers will be even worse than what I posted below in October. https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=3509 |
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Isn’t it possible Scotland could emulate them? |
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I pray we never become Independent, SNP are a cult ready to destroy Scotland,
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How much of their economy relies on easy access to England? Ireland is to receive over 1bn Euros from the EU because of Brexit. where would Scotland or Wales get that sort of money? |
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As evidenced nobody is saying that Scotland couldn't go it alone, they could very easily they just won't be able to offer free prescriptions to everyone and free tuition etc etc. They could still do that and continue to borrow at massive rate, they wouldn't enjoy the lower interest rates that the UK as a whole does. Their currency would have to be pegged, most likely, to the Bank of England, so they couldn't really set their own fiscal policy, and likewise if they joined the Euro - which is far from certain. They could do whatever they want......................it'll be fine. |
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You’re assuming Scotland would want to spend billions on Trident, a privatised track and trace system that doesn’t work, a high speed rail network in another country... etc.
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No-one is doubting that the Scots could survive on their own, but they will be much poorer as a result. The Scottish electorate need to know that before they enter their crosses. ---------- Post added at 19:46 ---------- Previous post was at 19:43 ---------- Quote:
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The hatred some Scots have for England drives their support for the SNP imo.
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No doubt about it, Max.
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What has made the English so loathsome (to some) in that time? I don't think that it's really any more accurate a statement to say this than xenophobia and racism drive English policies on freedom of movement. There's racists, bigots and xenophobes in any society but no real evidence of any more in Scotland than the rest of the UK. |
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Maybe she was an excellent judge of character. |
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Boris's second adviser on keeping the UK intact quits in as many weeks!
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To answer the proposition you introduced, no, my mother in law despised the English and made no bones about it. However many times I tried to endear myself to her, nothing really worked. I don’t think we will ever gain the friendship of the Scots. But for their own sakes, I hope they will at least accept we are better united than as competitors. |
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However, as we possibly approach a 48/52 situation, the Scots can't be written off in totality as non-friends. It's all much of a rugby match as I explained in an earlier post. As for your mother-in-law ..... |
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Seriously ... stop embarrassing yourselves. Even if there’s eventually a referendum, and even if the Scottish electorate votes to leave the UK, that doesn’t make every leave voter an enemy, or a “non-friend”. I know plenty of people who voted Yes in 2014. A good number of them are English. For most yessers, it’s about their belief that Scotland’s economy and society are sufficiently distinct from England that they ought to be managed separately. I don’t have to agree with them to respect that as a reasonable constitutional position.
It isn’t all about you, and you sitting here pontificating like this just sounds a bit ridiculous and egotistical. |
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The rest of the UK will be better off. So should we care? |
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OB's view on Scotland is perfectly valid, especially that it has insufficient economic prospects to go it alone. The Guvmin will be doing a favour those ignoramuses who are spellbound by the wicked-witch of the Scots by denying another referendum for a generation. |
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What’s this ‘we’ ordure? Lots of Scots like lots of English, what people don’t like is the lazy stereotyping of entire nations, and people who insist their unfortunately personal experience is actuality for everyone. |
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They're not welcome or understood. ;) |
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Think Corbyn winning in reverse. Piece of cake. He can't successfully reconcile any view on Scottish independence with his own, shall we say lax, economic views. |
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I didn't read that OB was stereotyping the entire Scots nation. We can all read in what is meant - those idiots who blindly want independence. All that Sturgeon wants is to walk the halls of European power, like Cameron wanted to keep. Some politicians are baddies. |
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My nieces girlfriend was a young lady from Glasgow, after a year she got a job at Thomas Cook and was based near our town, she temporarily moved in to my sisters until she got the deposit to rent a room.
I got on with her as she was a Queen fan, Several times her mum would stay (this was before she got her own room.) We often spoke about Scottish independence and both didn't want it. Sadly they spilt and she moved on and lives in Kent. |
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Seriously though, for someone to think they understand an entire nation based on a dysfunctional relationship within their own family is pretty extreme. Two of my grandparents-in-law were raving separatists but we used to be able to get past it (if the subject ever came up I’d tell them it’s England’s oil, and they’d just get preoccupied with maritime boundaries until the conversation moved on). |
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Fundamentally, I take Old Boy's input as completely insincere.
One only has to look at every single post where he's set up his signature to inform us using the user title Quote:
Almost nobody believes he is sincerely engaging in either debate so when brings his British nationalism for a brief sojourn into the Scotland thread to tell us what's good for us forgive me if I'm sceptical he has Scotland's best interests at heart. |
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Tut tut, my friend. Jumping on the Hugh bandwagon, renowned for his "jokes".
OB makes very valid points about Scottish independence provided that you don't get into the game of second guessing his meaning. You may well pray in aid that there's only what he's written to go on, but of course this man from beloved Wokingham does not damn all Scots; just the half-wits who will vote for independence. Anyway, it's not going to happen for a very long time if it happens at all., The wicked witch is now flying the EU flag on government buildings; the EU must be bemused with its left hand and laughing at the UK with its right hand, so to speak. |
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I'm not sure the EU flag is flying on Government buildings but it's nice to provoke outrage among the English by implying it.
It may on Europe day, but I think we will still play under that flag in the Ryder Cup in the absence of a flag for Europe the continent and not the EU. |
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That's top trolling by the FM.
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Nevertheless, for various complex historical, cultural, and frankly religious reasons Scotland has a sense of itself that is European in a way that England does not. I don’t think that sense mandates the strong attachment the SNP has to the EU, which is entirely political and unquestionable because to do so automatically aligns one with Tories. But there is a convenient, if intellectually lazy, link between Scotland’s historic sense of European-ness and its present political attachment to the EU. All of which is to say that no, I don’t think any strategising has been done around the flag-flying. The SNP is all about identity politics and flag-waving gestures like this fit the bill admirably. It will have been very easy for Sturgeon to convince herself, without any real effort, that flying the EU flag would be a popular thing to do. |
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The SNP have done a really good job increasing their vote share for an organisation seemingly incapable of strategic thought.
Would have thought the titans of the Scottish Labour and Scottish Conservative parties would do a better job against such a hapless bunch. |
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I'm pretty sure that nothing I've written above says the SNP is incapable of strategic thought.
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As for ‘linear TV’, give us a break. That is nothing whatsoever to do with this thread, and your ‘point’ has been answered on countless occasions. Time to grow up, you are not in primary school any more. As for Scotland, I don’t really care overmuch myself if they vote for separation. The advantages will be for the rest of us. But I do genuinely feel sorry for those Scottish people who are taken in by the rhetoric of the SNP. In my view, the opposition parties need to highlight the economic madness of separation. If they still vote in line with the SNP having been warned, they will be beyond help. ---------- Post added at 21:16 ---------- Previous post was at 21:14 ---------- Quote:
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