Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

I don't think the last election tells us anything to do with Brexit. Voters had moved on from the issue and most of the campaign was about domestic politics.

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The problem with this is referendums are designed to settle longer-term issues that require fundamental changes. It's not so easy to keep flipping back and forth on if we're in the EU or if Scotland is independent.

I think there needs to be a real change in circumstances and real public support to hold another referendum. I don't really support one on the EU.

That said I think Brexit shows why the last one was a problem. The country is split, 52-48, on a huge change which ideally would require a lot of public support and tenacity to push though. The Government is struggling in part because of that spilt but also IMO because they know they'll be held responsible for any problems after the vote. The public is rarely willing to accept their responsibility problems that happen.

Most voters and members of the public have moved on. I'm bored to death of the whole thing yet none of those domestic issues voted for have been addressed because the fanatics on both sides are so intransigent they cannot accept anything other than their particular hard line dogma and hang the consequences, if they really gave a toss about the will of the people or the people's vote it wouldn't have come to two years plus of nothing with a whole load more nothing kicked down the road to not be dealt with later. Never have so manys lives been put on hold because of so few and I hope it's not forgotten

ianch99

20-12-2018 21:51

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35976235)

Nope ... but I do have a very fetching pair of ruby slippers. :D

and the stripey socks? :)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35976280)

Sudden? It’s legitimacy has been getting questioned by some since June 24, 2016.

and before this date ...

Damien

20-12-2018 21:56

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35976281)

It probably would have taken two years even if the country was fully behind it and even then longer still as we pivot the economy away from the European single market and to whatever it is people envision comes next. Maybe it would be a bit quicker to get it past Parliament but a lot of process has been the Government dealing the EU without Parliament's involvement.

This isn't a simple thing we're doing.

And I agree it's been bad that other things have been put on hold. One of the arguments for May's deal is that we get beyond this part of the process.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35976278)

I take it that this sudden, rather desperate attempt to call the legitimacy of the 2016 referendum into question is the first sign that some people are moving closer to accepting that Brexit is actually happening and nothing that occurs between now and next March will stop it.

I'm not calling the legitimacy of the referendum into question. It was legal e.t.c. I was just saying the close result is a problem for the government. Just under half the country being against what you're doing is hardly ideal. Imagine if the Scottish referendum had gone 51-49% to Leave or something, trying to build a new country that almost half of it didn't want to do.

Chris

20-12-2018 22:03

Re: Brexit

I didn’t mean you ;). There are however several members here who have fairly suddenly veered the debate onto the legitimacy of the vote held more than 2 years ago, whereas until today the discussion was about ways Brexit could yet be stopped, or at least delayed or watered down. To me it sounds like the penny has finally dropped.

jfman

20-12-2018 22:09

Re: Brexit

I was only pointing how to have an orderly and decisive referendum, just as I’ve pointed out other things that would have been desirable for Brexit (e.g. a strong government following the 2017 GE, parties with a clear negotiating position, not triggering A50 until we were ready if going for no deal).

I still think it’ll be delayed, A50 extended, stopped or watered down. With Parliament heading into recess though not much is liable to change before the “meaningful vote”. I’ve always said for extension to be viable it has to be late in the process.

Pierre

20-12-2018 22:56

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35976189)

Sadly I think deep down the most committed leave voters know that another referendum would be lost.

I wouldn’t be so sure, just exactly what has happened since the vote to change people’s minds?

Being called stupid? Being called racist? Being told you got it wrong? Being told your democratic choice is invalid?

Many, probably most, did not vote for economics, and I see little argument other than economics being made, nothing has been done to address other people’s issues.

And throughout this, has the EU made themselves any more attractive?

Those wanting a second referendum better be 100% sure, because if they think they’re going to walk it, like they did 2016, and get another bloody nose that’ll be the end of it.

It would depend on the question.

In my mind the question would have to be the same as in 2016.

ianch99

20-12-2018 23:01

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35976288)

No sudden veering. I have mentioned this point a number of times since 2016 ... maybe you have me blocked ;)

Pierre

20-12-2018 23:02

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 35976251)

the people voted for a vast majority remain parliament after the referendum though

No they didn’t

jfman

20-12-2018 23:04

Re: Brexit

You don’t necessarily have to change anyone’s minds. A sizeable amount of non-voters first time round to get involved and shifting demographics could be enough to sway it.

Like a US election the actual challenge is getting the most people out, not necessarily convince anyone to switch. Those wanting another referendum don’t need to be 100% sure: they literally have nothing to lose at this stage. They aren’t getting what they want by any other means.

Pierre

20-12-2018 23:14

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35976265)

It really isn’t a subject designed to be decided by a wafer thin public vote.
.

Is 4% wafer thin? What margin is acceptable to you?

0.1% is wafer thin, I would argue.

Perhaps following the last election all these seats should have been rerun, as they didn’t win by enough votes?

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/ge...onstituencies/

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jfman

20-12-2018 23:18

Re: Brexit

I would describe something winning by 52-48 as wafer thin, yes. It requires a minor shift in demographics or public opinion to give a 48-52 result in the other direction. Which I’d also call wafer thin.

You’ve also removed more of my post where I frame how to define a clear will of the people over a sustained period of time to pick on one narrow point, which isn’t really helpful to the discussion.

It’s really not important the extent we disagree over the definition of wafer thin.

Those seats will get another go, no later than 2022.

Pierre

20-12-2018 23:31

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35976304)

You don’t necessarily have to change anyone’s minds. A sizeable amount of non-voters first time round to get involved and shifting demographics could be enough to sway it.

“Could”. But do you think the quality of debate in the last two years, from our politicians and others has been of the quality to engage and enthuse.

And these demographics. Yes 700,000 thousand leavers next to deaths door have now slipped the mortal coil to be replaced by Remain teenagers.........it’s very convenient and I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

Quote:

Like a US election the actual challenge is getting the most people out.

Indeed, and they would revert to project fear. But I can already see the campaigns.

What was it now planes won’t fly the day after no deal Brexit?...... as predicted yes they will.

The EU, as expected, will not do anything that damages their own interests.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35976310)

I would describe something winning by 52-48 as wafer thin, yes.

What is an acceptable margin then?

Quote:

It requires a minor shift in demographics or public opinion to give a 48-52 result in the other direction. Which I’d also call wafer thin.

Most likely as least 1.3 million

Dave42

20-12-2018 23:32

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35976303)