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Just booked my jab online having received my letter. :)
I had the choice of any day any time locally. Tuesday lunchtime for me. |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55975052 https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ction-12211970 |
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The evidence available in the UK seems to more-or-less concur with that coming out of South Africa. It lessens severity of disease among those infected with the SA variant but doesn’t necessarily prevent it. There’s no doubt a targeted update of the vaccine is now highly desirable, however in the meantime there is still an overriding public health goal, which is to control disease so people aren’t dying of it and they aren’t filling our hospitals so that people end up dying of other things going untreated. The programme must continue at speed, with what we have available.
It looks to me as if the national vaccination programme, once complete, is likely to start again from step 1 just as soon as the modified vaccine is ready. The important thing is we know the Oxford ‘recipe’ works; it’s now just a matter of substituting the updated genetics. |
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I’ve not seen anything scientific to suggest it might prevent severe outcomes - the sample in South Africa was on healthy individuals with no comorbidities. As Pierre frequently points out the odds of severe outcomes in these groups are extremely low.
There’s understandably a lot of PR floating around on what people would expect or hope to see, but I’ve not seen any evidence for it. Back to square one in Autumn isn’t the outcome I’m sure most would have hoped for, especially if we are unable to meaningfully ease restrictions over the summer due to the risk of further mutations that evade vaccine response. I do wonder, as the Government will have had prior sight to this information as it evolves, and you’ve said before these “aren’t developed in a vacuum”, whether it’s possible Government knew vaccine efficacy was irrelevant anyway when they started pushing it out as quickly as possible. A Great British success story, and we could have gotten away with it too if it wasn’t for those pesky mutations! |
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I think “vaccine efficacy was irrelevant anyway” is a bit of a leap. If you’re not careful you’re going to start sounding like you almost need it all to go wrong, you know, as if a national disaster is an essential component of your self-validation, or something ...
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There’s certainly been question marks before now around what real world performance will be. I’m sure you’d I agree I certainly can’t be accused of being Captain Hindsight as I’ve voiced these before. I’d be very pleased to be proven wrong as real world data emerges but I remain sceptical to say the least. Lockdown should now aim to eliminate the SA/UK2 variants. |
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Last thing the vaccination campaign needs is a minister feeling the need to declare a vote of confidence in the jabs....
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On the other hand, what should a minister do if asked the question? |
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The British are coming!
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https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/pfi...134831267.html
Quite difficult to find this good news in the more mainstream UK press but a tiny study appears to show the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as producing and effective response to the South African variant. Sky's opinion piece has someone describing it as a "little more effective" than the Oxford/Astrazenica one. Obviously real world results could vary, and we hope all vaccines work regardless of where they are being deployed. However it seems nobody does vaccine nationalism quite like the Great British press. |
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No wonder it's not in the mainstream press. |
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A study of 20 patients has no statistical significance whatsoever - you have consistently felt entitled to question the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine on a far larger sample of over-65s. I think you need to decide what you believe and stick to it ... |
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I hope the emerging data on over 65s for the AstraZeneca vaccine is good, and I’ve acknowledged the scope for other countries to use the doubts as a way to push past the “hardest to reach” and get more vaccine out there from larger sites. I’m not sure what’s wrong about that but I find it hard to believe all these scientists in all these other countries are questioning the data simply to irk the UK as the Daily Express keep telling me. |
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It's only the EU countries that are doing it to irk the UK. Haven't you realised that yet?
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Not long back from getting the Pfizer jab, had to stand outside in the snow for 45 minutes in a pretty big queue, once inside it was a pretty quick turnaround, the nurse was really nice and apologised for the delay, which she said was about an hour, no idea why there was a delay, maybe something to do with the bad weather, anyway I go back in 12 weeks for second dose.
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Had a call from my surgery that they had some leftovers and would I like some.
Be here in 20 minutes. So I nipped up and had a quick jab of Oxford. Apparently they aren't always using the same supplier for the second dose and have mixed for people .... |
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People are revealing their ages on this thread. The average age on CF seems to be >60.
I'm a long way off being vaccinated ;) |
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It’s all a bit previous.
No vaccines have been around long enough for any meaningful real world data. So just keep going. Stick to the course. Deaths and infections are all heading back down. We’ll all need further jabs, on an annual basis anyway - don’t listen to the media scare mongers and worry warts. |
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They don't know, its beyond their control; they promise stupid things as people demands dates and they crave the next nice happy headline. It is more than likely going to be an issue for decades. We'll adapt but life will change permanently. That's not a message they want to give. |
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Big couple of weeks coming up though. My concerns aren’t about the vaccines as such, however if people get carried away putting too much faith in them and open everything up too soon we could find ourselves in a much worse situation later in the year. |
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It’s going to be an issue, for ever. Hopefully one we can mitigate with an annual vaccine and build up natural immunity. I don’t think life will change to a massive degree. Again, I will remind everyone that this is a disease that 99.2% of people in the U.K. recover from without vaccines. So if vaccines can protect that 0.8% to any degree, we’re winning. |
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Ah placebo vaccine induced herd immunity. This is a new concoction.
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btw, 0.8% of the U.K. population is 528,000 - that’s a lot of deaths... |
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Now we have vaccines, and within a year will have vaccinated everyone - it should be just like the other so called "deadly" virus, get a top up, and carry on. We dont lockdown, or even worry about the Flu - every year the most vulnerable get jabbed, and carry on (despite the fact it kills thousands) and the rest of us dont even think about it. We will likely just need to keep an eye out for mutations (again like the flu) and they likely will be far less frequent as less and less people get infected. Get enough immune and in theory you could eradicate it completely as it wont have anyone left to infect. * Tin foil hats will of course still be available for the doom & gloom merchants. |
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I think opening up by end of March is not an unreasonable prospect. |
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As ever Pierre while I admire your consistent optimism on such matters I don't look forward to your disappointment as your predictions remain unfulfilled.
How long did the schools last in January? One day? Two? Having a previous variant of Covid does little to protect against the SA variant, neither does it prevent or reduce severe outcomes. So unless we get test, trace, isolate working and lockdown to eliminate it then we are no more than ten weeks from crisis point as we were last January. |
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt....co/K5zY4ZcSMV It turned up as a finding in the placebo group for the Novovax vaccine in South Africa. |
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Anyone 70+ who has not yet been contacted to get the vaccine can now apply using https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...s-vaccination/
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You could try another browser, device or private browsing if genuinely keen to read it. It's not my fault that it's not been picked up elsewhere. |
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In an post in another thread, I linked to the paywalled Torygraph but also provided a quotation from the article to make my point. |
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Interesting article on extraordinary drop in Covid numbers in India
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...=1612870507946 Lots of puzzles and ideas including hot/humid climate, young population (and generally healthy older people), exposure to lots of "nasties" (malaria, typhoid etc) bolsters immune system, mask wearing in public spaces including outside, Covid mutation to "weaker form". |
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Primary schools could have easily stayed open. There wasn't any science or data behind the partial closure of primary schools. I accept secondary schools is a different issue. |
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It is a positive puff piece by a complaint media or something supported by data? The clue is where you see "if" and "hope". "Should" is a bit dubious if projecting meaning that wasn't subject of the trial and "expect" can go either way. |
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-south-africa/ |
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Considering COVID is a novel virus we should have no protection from it so why is not affecting everybody? COVID is just a cousin of many other Coronaviruses our bodies deal with all the time. It's accepted that T-Cell immunity is a real thing and that anti-bodies that we have established for various flu and common cold viruses also give us a degree of protection. The cells that produce anti-bodies for Spanish Flu have been found in people 90years after that pandemic and T-Cells for SARS have been found in people 17years after that outbreak. It's blindingly obvious that those with weaker immune systems and those that are generally unhealthy (older, unfit, obese) are the ones most at risk and vaccinations will help cover them. and the younger fitter part of the population, in the main, will see it off as they have been doing. There is every reason to expect us to be out of this much much sooner than later now have a vaccine(s) to cover those at most at risk. https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief...3/asymptomatic https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52446965 |
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Again, what about Long COVID - you appear to be ignoring this.
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Though all are open for some children and aiming to deliver online for the rest. |
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Long COVID is a relative term and covers all people that may have symptoms longer than the expected 2 weeks. and they estimate 1 in 7 that have symptomatic COVID may experience symptoms for 4 weeks, or 1 in 20 for 8 weeks, or 1 in 45 for 12 weeks or more. it affects 10% of 18-49 years olds rising to 22% in the over 70's and is much more likely to affect you if you are obese. Many people get over it (as above only 5% of those that are symptomatic have it longer than 12 weeks) and as the virius has only been around 14months those that still have issues it is unknown how long is long or how chronic the syndrome will continue to be................and at least they haven't died from it. So, I'm not ignoring it, but neither am I going to over egg it either. https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid |
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Slide 28 |
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Those links cite scientific studies and research to exactly back up my claims with science. So once again you have posted against something that says the complete opposite to what you want to believe. |
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In the real world however we will not survive by selective interpretation of science to suit political outcomes. I've been consistent about that fact throughout and just as the schools inevitably closed for most pupils in January we now have to face up to the fact population level immunity hardly exists at all for the SA variant. |
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(Anyone else remember Graham? He used to make leather goods and sell them at bondage fairs, and spent hours on here complaining about logical fallacies) |
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The Guardian of all places have today, helpfully if inadvertently, posted an article that illustrates the difference between science and puff pieces.
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Odd to call the scientific regulators of other countries 'commentators' rather than 'regulators', 'scientists' or 'authorities'. Quote:
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We've also invoked nameless, faceless "experts" for further reassurance despite the absence of data. There's some news in here, and it broadly reflects reality. However there's an awful lot of spin and PR. |
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Feel free to read them. https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S...674(20)30610-3 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6512/89 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...196-1/fulltext https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.20042382v1 https://www.nature.com/articles/natu...=www.bbc.co.uk https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z |
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Do any of them assess new variants? If not then I'll politely decline as it's a waste of my time. None hold more weight than the placebo group in a clinical trial referenced earlier.
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Any variant of COVID is still just another Coronavirus so the logic will still apply. |
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We've real world, observed analysis of this coronavirus and it's variants. If they were all much of a muchness as your simplistic hypothesis suggests then no such observations would take place and, in all likelihood, vaccines would perform roughly the same. It's all T cell and B cell immunity after all, innit? |
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Only he is right, no one else, all seeing and all knowing, you should know that by now. :sleep: Now I think about it, he really does remind me of Graham, thanks Chris. :) |
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This is all very new cutting edge stuff, and it goes some way to explaining why there are such varying responses to the Virus, and why so many people seem to be unaffected by it. |
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Covid vaccine tracker.
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Some members have been consistently over-optimistic, clutching at one straw after another after another to be disappointed as we enter new restrictions (and new lockdowns) because they ignored what has been staring them in the face for some time. I'm more interested in why others want to live in denial of the evidence out there and clutch at outdated hypothetical studies that contradict the real world data because it gives them a more comforting, if deluded, narrative. However, I can offer some positive news in Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced that 97% of Covid deaths that have occurred in the last 30 days have occurred in the non-vaccinated community. I'm sure they'll be looking into the 3% very closely. It'll be interesting to see when (or if) similar data emerges and if they'll break it down by who has had one dose or both doses of the appropriate vaccine. |
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I've not had a chance to view it, but Sky News has an interesting series on lessons learnt from the Coronavirus crisis in the UK.
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We should have followed Australia.
I was talking to my cousin who live in Perth Australia, the other day they had their first case in 10 months, within 3 hours they had a 5-day lockdown. She said police challenged and offered a guy a mask, he refused saying it's a conspiracy etc, well he was sent to prison for 3 months. I can't read it myself as it doesn't like my ad blocker, I did see 18 days (I guess it includes good behaviour.) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-lockdown.html https://www.ladbible.com/news/latest...kdown-20210202 |
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Here you go Hom3r.
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Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine recommended for adults of all ages, say scientists advising the World Health Organisation
https://news.sky.com/story/oxford-as...ation-12214373 |
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The fact it has shown up in the Alps is probably a sign it's too late for many Central European to lockdown, test, trace and isolate their way out quickly. |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56011981 ---------- Post added at 17:49 ---------- Previous post was at 17:41 ---------- Quote:
The safety, efficacy and dosage of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine just keeps on being reaffirmed by study after study ... sooner or later you’re going to have to stop offering Corbynesque wishes for the success of all vaccines of whatever origin, and accept that the vaccine most closely tied to British government policy represents a major policy triumph. |
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I'll answer that for you, no it hasn't. |
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Efficacy against the South African variant is proven to be low, and the hypothesis that it prevents severe cases is just that. Not sure what you've got against vaccines in other countries the global economy and supply chains won't return to normal (and I won't be able to get on my holidays) until the majority of people here and there get a functional vaccine against the prevalent strains. ---------- Post added at 21:37 ---------- Previous post was at 21:33 ---------- Quote:
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With the current low level of cases in the UK of the South African variant, we're obviously fine with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in the UK. |
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The big pointer for me is whether the Government suspends door to door testing in areas where the SA variant and Kent variant are spreading. If they don’t it suggests that they’re working internally closer to my view than more positive interpretations. |
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https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52945210 The WHO in offering their 'interperatation' have to consider a multitude of factors including confidence in worldwide vaccination programmes, current spread of variants, availability of vaccines. On balance of course it makes sense at a global level to distribute the AZ vaccine to all age groups. As we sit today, you're far more likely to catch the older variants than the new ones in almost all territories in the world. You're probably more likely to be offered an AZ vaccine than any other. Should people not get vaccinated and wait? Of course not, that's patently ridiculous. It's better in arms than in the bin. That said, as the race to ease restrictions here and abroad presses on the other variant questions become more important. I do note the shift from reaching the "herd immunity threshold" to "preventing severe disease". If that's not possible I'm sure the PR spin will move on to how it's a race and good that we've scaled up infrastructure for the Autumn booster. Which is actually true, I'd just not be getting my hopes up for a quick end to restrictions unless test, trace, isolate gets the SA/Kent variants under control and border measures keep the Brazil variants out. |
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Isnt this topic great - I love knowing that Cable Forum has so many all knowing, all seeing, virus experts to keep us all safe, I dont understand why all the worlds leaders, the WHO, and scientists are not logging in daily for their advice. :D
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Too busy siphoning off billions of taxpayers funds to their pals, I suspect. A political career is short and not very lucrative.
Got to tee up those directorships, consultancies and well paid after dinner engagements to pay the bills in later life. |
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