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Julian 07-02-2021 15:05

Re: Coronavirus
 
Just booked my jab online having received my letter. :)

I had the choice of any day any time locally.

Tuesday lunchtime for me.

1andrew1 07-02-2021 22:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

South Africa halts AstraZeneca vaccine rollout

Move comes after preliminary data find no effect on mild or moderate disease caused by prevalent variant

South Africa has moved to halt its rollout of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine after preliminary and limited evidence showed it failed to protect against mild and moderate forms of disease caused by a coronavirus variant first detected in the country.

Distribution of the AstraZeneca jab, scheduled to begin in the country this month, would be put on hold to study its effects including on severe cases in more detail “until the scientists give us clear indications as to what we need to do”, Zweli Mkhize, South Africa’s health minister, said on Sunday.
https://www.ft.com/content/82534b15-...7-de674b11079c
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55975052
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ction-12211970

jfman 07-02-2021 22:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36069794)

All eyes on the UK to find out what the vaccine actually does then. The biggest clinical trial in the world.

Chris 08-02-2021 00:12

Re: Coronavirus
 
The evidence available in the UK seems to more-or-less concur with that coming out of South Africa. It lessens severity of disease among those infected with the SA variant but doesn’t necessarily prevent it. There’s no doubt a targeted update of the vaccine is now highly desirable, however in the meantime there is still an overriding public health goal, which is to control disease so people aren’t dying of it and they aren’t filling our hospitals so that people end up dying of other things going untreated. The programme must continue at speed, with what we have available.

It looks to me as if the national vaccination programme, once complete, is likely to start again from step 1 just as soon as the modified vaccine is ready. The important thing is we know the Oxford ‘recipe’ works; it’s now just a matter of substituting the updated genetics.

jfman 08-02-2021 00:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
I’ve not seen anything scientific to suggest it might prevent severe outcomes - the sample in South Africa was on healthy individuals with no comorbidities. As Pierre frequently points out the odds of severe outcomes in these groups are extremely low.

There’s understandably a lot of PR floating around on what people would expect or hope to see, but I’ve not seen any evidence for it.

Back to square one in Autumn isn’t the outcome I’m sure most would have hoped for, especially if we are unable to meaningfully ease restrictions over the summer due to the risk of further mutations that evade vaccine response.

I do wonder, as the Government will have had prior sight to this information as it evolves, and you’ve said before these “aren’t developed in a vacuum”, whether it’s possible Government knew vaccine efficacy was irrelevant anyway when they started pushing it out as quickly as possible. A Great British success story, and we could have gotten away with it too if it wasn’t for those pesky mutations!

Chris 08-02-2021 00:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
I think “vaccine efficacy was irrelevant anyway” is a bit of a leap. If you’re not careful you’re going to start sounding like you almost need it all to go wrong, you know, as if a national disaster is an essential component of your self-validation, or something ...

jfman 08-02-2021 00:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36069801)
I think “vaccine efficacy was irrelevant anyway” is a bit of a leap. If you’re not careful you’re going to start sounding like you almost need it all to go wrong, you know, as if a national disaster is an essential component of your self-validation, or something ...

I try to avoid the British press if I can as slightly more objectivity can be found.

There’s certainly been question marks before now around what real world performance will be. I’m sure you’d I agree I certainly can’t be accused of being Captain Hindsight as I’ve voiced these before.

I’d be very pleased to be proven wrong as real world data emerges but I remain sceptical to say the least. Lockdown should now aim to eliminate the SA/UK2 variants.

Mr K 08-02-2021 10:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
Last thing the vaccination campaign needs is a minister feeling the need to declare a vote of confidence in the jabs....

Sephiroth 08-02-2021 10:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36069814)
Last thing the vaccination campaign needs is a minister feeling the need to declare a vote of confidence in the jabs....

Absolutely right. Their word is least trusted.

1andrew1 08-02-2021 11:13

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36069814)
Last thing the vaccination campaign needs is a minister feeling the need to declare a vote of confidence in the jabs....

It can sometimes come across like a football club owner declaring confidence in a failing manager whilst he's scrambling to find his successor.

On the other hand, what should a minister do if asked the question?

Sephiroth 08-02-2021 11:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36069825)
It can sometimes come across like a football club owner declaring confidence in a failing manager whilst he's scrambling to find his successor.

On the other hand, what should a minister do if asked the question?

In these circumstances, the minister should set up a press conference and ensure that the explanations are given by the trusted professionals.

nomadking 08-02-2021 11:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
South Africa will have a higher proportion of the South Africa variant. Bit obvious really.

jfman 08-02-2021 11:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36069827)
In these circumstances, the minister should set up a press conference and ensure that the explanations are given by the trusted professionals.

If so it should be made explicitly clear if/where Ministers have diverged from scientific advice. It's not the job of public sector employees to provide Ministers a shield to hide behind if they've forged their own path.

1andrew1 08-02-2021 11:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36069829)
South Africa will have a higher proportion of the South Africa variant. Bit obvious really.

I don't think that's in contention.

Sephiroth 08-02-2021 12:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069830)
If so it should be made explicitly clear if/where Ministers have diverged from scientific advice. It's not the job of public sector employees to provide Ministers a shield to hide behind if they've forged their own path.

Your last sentence - yes obviously. My reading of the JVT and Whitty performances is that they do not let the ministers hide behind their advice. Same with the Oxford labs lady.

Hugh 08-02-2021 14:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36069829)
South Africa will have a higher proportion of the South Africa variant. Bit obvious really.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36069831)
I don't think that's in contention.

FYI...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...fe5_story.html
Quote:

U.K. coronavirus variant spreading rapidly through United States, study finds

The coronavirus variant that shut down much of the United Kingdom is spreading rapidly across the United States, outcompeting other strains and doubling its prevalence among confirmed infections every week and a half, according to new research made public Sunday.
Quote:

The report concludes that the variant has been 35 to 45 percent more transmissible than other strains of the virus in the United States.
“It is here, it’s got its hooks deep into this country, and it’s on its way to very quickly becoming the dominant lineage,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona and a co-author of the new paper.

Chris 08-02-2021 14:49

Re: Coronavirus
 
The British are coming!

jfman 08-02-2021 15:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/pfi...134831267.html

Quite difficult to find this good news in the more mainstream UK press but a tiny study appears to show the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as producing and effective response to the South African variant.

Sky's opinion piece has someone describing it as a "little more effective" than the Oxford/Astrazenica one. Obviously real world results could vary, and we hope all vaccines work regardless of where they are being deployed. However it seems nobody does vaccine nationalism quite like the Great British press.

papa smurf 08-02-2021 16:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069864)
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/pfi...134831267.html

Quite difficult to find this good news in the more mainstream UK press but a tiny study appears to show the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as producing and effective response to the South African variant.

Sky's opinion piece has someone describing it as a "little more effective" than the Oxford/Astrazenica one. Obviously real world results could vary, and we hope all vaccines work regardless of where they are being deployed. However it seems nobody does vaccine nationalism quite like the Great British press.

In a study of 20 vaccine recipients, researchers at the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) at Galveston, America, found that the vaccine neutralises the virus with the N501Y and E484K mutations.


No wonder it's not in the mainstream press.

Chris 08-02-2021 16:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069864)
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/pfi...134831267.html

Quite difficult to find this good news in the more mainstream UK press but a tiny study appears to show the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as producing and effective response to the South African variant.

Sky's opinion piece has someone describing it as a "little more effective" than the Oxford/Astrazenica one. Obviously real world results could vary, and we hope all vaccines work regardless of where they are being deployed. However it seems nobody does vaccine nationalism quite like the Great British press.

The AstraZeneca vaccine makes up the bulk of our supply at present. Stories of its effectiveness are obviously of greater interest.

A study of 20 patients has no statistical significance whatsoever - you have consistently felt entitled to question the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine on a far larger sample of over-65s.

I think you need to decide what you believe and stick to it ...

jfman 08-02-2021 17:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36069868)
The AstraZeneca vaccine makes up the bulk of our supply at present. Stories of its effectiveness are obviously of greater interest.

A study of 20 patients has no statistical significance whatsoever - you have consistently felt entitled to question the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine on a far larger sample of over-65s.

I think you need to decide what you believe and stick to it ...

I acknowledge it’s a tiny study and real world results could vary - I’m not sure what’s wrong about that? It obviously needs more research, and indeed as the Pfizer vaccine rolls out in the real world further data can and will emerge.

I hope the emerging data on over 65s for the AstraZeneca vaccine is good, and I’ve acknowledged the scope for other countries to use the doubts as a way to push past the “hardest to reach” and get more vaccine out there from larger sites. I’m not sure what’s wrong about that but I find it hard to believe all these scientists in all these other countries are questioning the data simply to irk the UK as the Daily Express keep telling me.

pip08456 08-02-2021 18:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
It's only the EU countries that are doing it to irk the UK. Haven't you realised that yet?

1andrew1 08-02-2021 18:49

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36069885)
It's only the EU countries that are doing it to irk the UK. Haven't you realised that yet?

The USA and Switzerland are both in on this dastardly conspiracy too! :D

jfman 08-02-2021 19:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36069885)
It's only the EU countries that are doing it to irk the UK. Haven't you realised that yet?

And South Africa who have paused their rollout plans completely.

Mad Max 08-02-2021 20:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Not long back from getting the Pfizer jab, had to stand outside in the snow for 45 minutes in a pretty big queue, once inside it was a pretty quick turnaround, the nurse was really nice and apologised for the delay, which she said was about an hour, no idea why there was a delay, maybe something to do with the bad weather, anyway I go back in 12 weeks for second dose.

Julian 08-02-2021 20:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Had a call from my surgery that they had some leftovers and would I like some.

Be here in 20 minutes.

So I nipped up and had a quick jab of Oxford.

Apparently they aren't always using the same supplier for the second dose and have mixed for people ....

Mr K 08-02-2021 21:48

Re: Coronavirus
 
People are revealing their ages on this thread. The average age on CF seems to be >60.
I'm a long way off being vaccinated ;)

Julian 08-02-2021 21:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36069902)
People are revealing their ages on this thread. The average age on CF seems to be >60.
I'm a long way off being vaccinated ;)

I got my vaccine as I am on the extremely vulnerable list ;)

Pierre 08-02-2021 21:57

Re: Coronavirus
 
It’s all a bit previous.

No vaccines have been around long enough for any meaningful real world data.

So just keep going. Stick to the course. Deaths and infections are all heading back down.

We’ll all need further jabs, on an annual basis anyway - don’t listen to the media scare mongers and worry warts.

Mr K 08-02-2021 22:18

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Julian (Post 36069903)
I got my vaccine as I am on the extremely vulnerable list ;)

Fair enough. Supporting Southampton can be terrible for your health ;)

---------- Post added at 22:18 ---------- Previous post was at 22:01 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36069904)
It’s all a bit previous.

No vaccines have been around long enough for any meaningful real world data.

So just keep going. Stick to the course. Deaths and infections are all heading back down.

We’ll all need further jabs, on an annual basis anyway - don’t listen to the media scare mongers and worry warts.

And deaths will go up next winter. Our PM told it would all be over by Xmas. Today they've hurried out statements about having every confidence in vaccines, a bit like a football chairman giving confidence in the manager, just before he sacks him....
They don't know, its beyond their control; they promise stupid things as people demands dates and they crave the next nice happy headline.

It is more than likely going to be an issue for decades. We'll adapt but life will change permanently. That's not a message they want to give.

jfman 08-02-2021 22:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36069904)
It’s all a bit previous.

No vaccines have been around long enough for any meaningful real world data.

So just keep going. Stick to the course. Deaths and infections are all heading back down.

We’ll all need further jabs, on an annual basis anyway - don’t listen to the media scare mongers and worry warts.

Deaths and infections are going down because of lockdown. There’s no discernible difference between the trend for the vaccinated age groups and unvaccinated age groups (yet).

Big couple of weeks coming up though.

My concerns aren’t about the vaccines as such, however if people get carried away putting too much faith in them and open everything up too soon we could find ourselves in a much worse situation later in the year.

Pierre 08-02-2021 22:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36069905)
And deaths will go up next winter. Our PM told it would all be over by Xmas. Today they've hurried out statements about having every confidence in vaccines, a bit like a football chairman giving confidence in the manager, just before he sacks him....
They don't know, its beyond their control; they promise stupid things as people demands dates and they crave the next nice happy headline.

Take your tinfoil hat off

Quote:

It is more than likely going to be an issue for decades. We'll adapt but life will change permanently. That's not a message they want to give.
Good too see you’re making good use of your degree “ in the bleeding’ obvious”

It’s going to be an issue, for ever. Hopefully one we can mitigate with an annual vaccine and build up natural immunity.

I don’t think life will change to a massive degree.

Again, I will remind everyone that this is a disease that 99.2% of people in the U.K. recover from without vaccines. So if vaccines can protect that 0.8% to any degree, we’re winning.

jfman 08-02-2021 22:45

Re: Coronavirus
 
Ah placebo vaccine induced herd immunity. This is a new concoction.

Hugh 08-02-2021 23:00

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36069912)
Take your tinfoil hat off



Good too see you’re making good use of your degree “ in the bleeding’ obvious”

It’s going to be an issue, for ever. Hopefully one we can mitigate with an annual vaccine and build up natural immunity.

I don’t think life will change to a massive degree.

Again, I will remind everyone that this is a disease that 99.2% of people in the U.K. recover from without vaccines. So if vaccines can protect that 0.8% to any degree, we’re winning.

What about Long COVID?

btw, 0.8% of the U.K. population is 528,000 - that’s a lot of deaths...

Paul 08-02-2021 23:45

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36069914)
btw, 0.8% of the U.K. population is 528,000 - that’s a lot of deaths...

He didnt say Deaths.

Now we have vaccines, and within a year will have vaccinated everyone - it should be just like the other so called "deadly" virus, get a top up, and carry on.

We dont lockdown, or even worry about the Flu - every year the most vulnerable get jabbed, and carry on (despite the fact it kills thousands) and the rest of us dont even think about it.

We will likely just need to keep an eye out for mutations (again like the flu) and they likely will be far less frequent as less and less people get infected.

Get enough immune and in theory you could eradicate it completely as it wont have anyone left to infect.

* Tin foil hats will of course still be available for the doom & gloom merchants.

Pierre 09-02-2021 07:28

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069910)
Deaths and infections are going down because of lockdown.

You don’t know that for certain.

Quote:

There’s no discernible difference between the trend for the vaccinated age groups and unvaccinated age groups (yet).

Big couple of weeks coming up though.

My concerns aren’t about the vaccines as such, however if people get carried away putting too much faith in them and open everything up too soon we could find ourselves in a much worse situation later in the year.
We’ve vaccinated 12M at least 12M have had it that’s at least 24 million that have increased immunity. 1 in 3 as a conservative estimate should now have a level of immunity.

I think opening up by end of March is not an unreasonable prospect.

jfman 09-02-2021 08:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
As ever Pierre while I admire your consistent optimism on such matters I don't look forward to your disappointment as your predictions remain unfulfilled.

How long did the schools last in January? One day? Two?

Having a previous variant of Covid does little to protect against the SA variant, neither does it prevent or reduce severe outcomes. So unless we get test, trace, isolate working and lockdown to eliminate it then we are no more than ten weeks from crisis point as we were last January.

papa smurf 09-02-2021 09:08

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069926)
As ever Pierre while I admire your consistent optimism on such matters I don't look forward to your disappointment as your predictions remain unfulfilled.

How long did the schools last in January? One day? Two?

Having a previous variant of Covid does little to protect against the SA variant, neither does it prevent or reduce severe outcomes. So unless we get test, trace, isolate working and lockdown to eliminate it then we are no more than ten weeks from crisis point as we were last January.

Will you publish your findings on that, it would make interesting reading.

1andrew1 09-02-2021 09:14

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36069925)
I think opening up by end of March is not an unreasonable prospect.

I suspect any opening-up would occur after the Easter school holidays which end for a lot of the country on 16th April. But I think opening-up depends on how well we can control these new variants.

jfman 09-02-2021 09:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36069927)
Will you publish your findings on that, it would make interesting reading.

I won't publish anything I'm just a bloke reading the internet. ;)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt....co/K5zY4ZcSMV

It turned up as a finding in the placebo group for the Novovax vaccine in South Africa.

Maggy 09-02-2021 09:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069926)
As ever Pierre while I admire your consistent optimism on such matters I don't look forward to your disappointment as your predictions remain unfulfilled.

How long did the schools last in January? One day? Two?

Having a previous variant of Covid does little to protect against the SA variant, neither does it prevent or reduce severe outcomes. So unless we get test, trace, isolate working and lockdown to eliminate it then we are no more than ten weeks from crisis point as we were last January.

Schools are still open.

jfman 09-02-2021 09:28

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36069931)
Schools are still open.

Yes for the children of key workers as they were in the initial lockdown. Nobody was disputing that would happen when discussing it in January.

papa smurf 09-02-2021 09:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069932)
Yes for the children of key workers as they were in the initial lockdown. Nobody was disputing that would happen when discussing it in January.

And vulnerable kids plus those with no internet or computer access, in my sisters school that is 50% of the kids.

Maggy 09-02-2021 10:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069932)
Yes for the children of key workers as they were in the initial lockdown. Nobody was disputing that would happen when discussing it in January.

So the schools stayed open longer than January.

Angua 09-02-2021 10:57

Re: Coronavirus
 
Anyone 70+ who has not yet been contacted to get the vaccine can now apply using https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...s-vaccination/

pip08456 09-02-2021 11:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069929)
I won't publish anything I'm just a bloke reading the internet. ;)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...africa/#click=

It turned up as a finding in the placebo group for the Novovax vaccine in South Africa.

A paywalled link, is that the best you can do?

jfman 09-02-2021 11:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36069944)
A paywalled link, is that the best you can do?

I've not went over my quota of free articles on the Washington Post website this month so I can read it.

You could try another browser, device or private browsing if genuinely keen to read it.

It's not my fault that it's not been picked up elsewhere.

Sephiroth 09-02-2021 11:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069946)
I've not went over my quota of free articles on the Washington Post website this month so I can read it.

You could try another browser, device or private browsing if genuinely keen to read it.

It's not my fault that it's not been picked up elsewhere.

Quite right. People, even the greatly respected (by me) Pip can be quick to jump on someone. Here comes the barb: you in particular!

In an post in another thread, I linked to the paywalled Torygraph but also provided a quotation from the article to make my point.


tweetiepooh 09-02-2021 11:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Interesting article on extraordinary drop in Covid numbers in India

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...=1612870507946

Lots of puzzles and ideas including hot/humid climate, young population (and generally healthy older people), exposure to lots of "nasties" (malaria, typhoid etc) bolsters immune system, mask wearing in public spaces including outside, Covid mutation to "weaker form".

Pierre 09-02-2021 11:54

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069926)
Having a previous variant of Covid does little to protect against the SA variant, neither does it prevent or reduce severe outcomes.

Pretty sure that's the exact opposite of what has been reported.

---------- Post added at 11:54 ---------- Previous post was at 11:52 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36069933)
And vulnerable kids plus those with no internet or computer access, in my sisters school that is 50% of the kids.

Likewise, my kids school is at 50-70% occupancy, depending on what day.

Primary schools could have easily stayed open. There wasn't any science or data behind the partial closure of primary schools.

I accept secondary schools is a different issue.

jfman 09-02-2021 11:58

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36069952)
Pretty sure that's the exact opposite of what has been reported.

Where, by who and what's the scientific grounding?

It is a positive puff piece by a complaint media or something supported by data?

The clue is where you see "if" and "hope". "Should" is a bit dubious if projecting meaning that wasn't subject of the trial and "expect" can go either way.

Hugh 09-02-2021 12:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36069944)
A paywalled link, is that the best you can do?

This shared link should be free to read (I’m a subscriber, and can share articles).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-south-africa/

Angua 09-02-2021 12:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069956)
Where, by who and what's the scientific grounding?

It is a positive puff piece by a complaint media or something supported by data?

The clue is where you see "if" and "hope". "Should" is a bit dubious if projecting meaning that wasn't subject of the trial and "expect" can go either way.

The following article is pretty informative. However, there is some question over the accuracy of original positive tests, which could skew the claimed re-infections. Plus there is no guarantee that immunity lasts beyond 8 months (as yet), or how effective any immunity built up by infection is?

Pierre 09-02-2021 12:36

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069956)
Where, by who and what's the scientific grounding?

It is a positive puff piece by a complaint media or something supported by data?

The clue is where you see "if" and "hope". "Should" is a bit dubious if projecting meaning that wasn't subject of the trial and "expect" can go either way.

Conservative estimates are that 1 in 3 people that have COVID are asymptomatic, and other findings in controlled groups have found that it can be as much as 80%.

Considering COVID is a novel virus we should have no protection from it so why is not affecting everybody? COVID is just a cousin of many other Coronaviruses our bodies deal with all the time.

It's accepted that T-Cell immunity is a real thing and that anti-bodies that we have established for various flu and common cold viruses also give us a degree of protection.

The cells that produce anti-bodies for Spanish Flu have been found in people 90years after that pandemic and T-Cells for SARS have been found in people 17years after that outbreak.

It's blindingly obvious that those with weaker immune systems and those that are generally unhealthy (older, unfit, obese) are the ones most at risk and vaccinations will help cover them.

and the younger fitter part of the population, in the main, will see it off as they have been doing.

There is every reason to expect us to be out of this much much sooner than later now have a vaccine(s) to cover those at most at risk.



https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief...3/asymptomatic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52446965

Hugh 09-02-2021 12:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
Again, what about Long COVID - you appear to be ignoring this.

1andrew1 09-02-2021 12:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36069939)
So the schools stayed open longer than January.

I get his general point though - they're not open in-person for most children.

Though all are open for some children and aiming to deliver online for the rest.

Pierre 09-02-2021 12:59

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36069967)
Again, what about Long COVID - you appear to be ignoring this.

I'm more concerned about short COVID at the moment can we sort that out first.

Long COVID is a relative term and covers all people that may have symptoms longer than the expected 2 weeks.

and they estimate 1 in 7 that have symptomatic COVID may experience symptoms for 4 weeks, or 1 in 20 for 8 weeks, or 1 in 45 for 12 weeks or more. it affects 10% of 18-49 years olds rising to 22% in the over 70's and is much more likely to affect you if you are obese.

Many people get over it (as above only 5% of those that are symptomatic have it longer than 12 weeks) and as the virius has only been around 14months those that still have issues it is unknown how long is long or how chronic the syndrome will continue to be................and at least they haven't died from it.

So, I'm not ignoring it, but neither am I going to over egg it either.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid

jfman 09-02-2021 13:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36069964)
Conservative estimates are that 1 in 3 people that have COVID are asymptomatic, and other findings in controlled groups have found that it can be as much as 80%.

Considering COVID is a novel virus we should have no protection from it so why is not affecting everybody? COVID is just a cousin of many other Coronaviruses our bodies deal with all the time.

It's accepted that T-Cell immunity is a real thing and that anti-bodies that we have established for various flu and common cold viruses also give us a degree of protection.

The cells that produce anti-bodies for Spanish Flu have been found in people 90years after that pandemic and T-Cells for SARS have been found in people 17years after that outbreak.

It's blindingly obvious that those with weaker immune systems and those that are generally unhealthy (older, unfit, obese) are the ones most at risk and vaccinations will help cover them.

and the younger fitter part of the population, in the main, will see it off as they have been doing.

There is every reason to expect us to be out of this much much sooner than later now have a vaccine(s) to cover those at most at risk.



https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief...3/asymptomatic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52446965

None of this backs up your claims in science.

pip08456 09-02-2021 14:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36069948)
Quite right. People, even the greatly respected (by me) Pip can be quick to jump on someone. Here comes the barb: you in particular!

In an post in another thread, I linked to the paywalled Torygraph but also provided a quotation from the article to make my point.


And therein lies the difference Seph.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36069961)
This shared link should be free to read (I’m a subscriber, and can share articles).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-south-africa/

What you think should be and what is are entirely different.

papa smurf 09-02-2021 14:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36069982)
And therein lies the difference Seph.



What you think should be and what is are entirely different.

Indeed, one click at it demands money like a modern day highwayman, 50 p per week i feel faint.

spiderplant 09-02-2021 14:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36069944)
A paywalled link, is that the best you can do?

https://www.novavax.com/sites/defaul...avax-Final.pdf
Slide 28

Pierre 09-02-2021 14:13

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069972)
None of this backs up your claims in science.

You are hilarious.

Those links cite scientific studies and research to exactly back up my claims with science. So once again you have posted against something that says the complete opposite to what you want to believe.

jfman 09-02-2021 14:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36069987)
You are hilarious.

Those links cite scientific studies and research to exactly back up my claims with science. So once again you have posted against something that says the complete opposite to what you want to believe.

A BBC opinion piece interpreting science isn't science. The word variant doesn't appear once in the article so doesn't address the issue. Simply put you've interpreted it to suit the outcome you desire - open everything up.

In the real world however we will not survive by selective interpretation of science to suit political outcomes. I've been consistent about that fact throughout and just as the schools inevitably closed for most pupils in January we now have to face up to the fact population level immunity hardly exists at all for the SA variant.

Chris 09-02-2021 15:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069991)
Simply put you've interpreted it to suit the outcome you desire

To quote a former forum member of long ago: “hello pot, this is kettle calling!”

(Anyone else remember Graham? He used to make leather goods and sell them at bondage fairs, and spent hours on here complaining about logical fallacies)

jfman 09-02-2021 15:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
The Guardian of all places have today, helpfully if inadvertently, posted an article that illustrates the difference between science and puff pieces.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ine-confidence

Quote:

The Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine against Covid has barely been out of the news from the moment the race to protect the world’s population from the novel coronavirus began. But not always in a good way.

Talented scientists at the Jenner Institute at Oxford University, led by Prof Sarah Gilbert, were incredibly quick off the mark in developing a potential vaccine, as soon as the virus in Wuhan had been sequenced and made globally available by Chinese scientists on 11 January. They were using an experimental but exciting approach they had tried in Mers (Middle East respiratory syndrome), caused by a similar coronavirus.
Some hyperbolic comments in there just to nudge you in the right direction. :)

Quote:

University academics cannot run the huge trials needed, in tens of thousands of people in different countries around the world, on their own. They went into partnership in April with AstraZeneca, a large multinational pharma company that – unlike some – was willing to develop and sell the vaccine for no profit for the duration of the pandemic. Oxford made that a precondition, intent on producing a vaccine that could save lives in poor countries and rich alike.
This is fundamentally accurate. Although does go out it's way to naturally make you suspicious of the others. Nasty capitalists.

Quote:

The marriage of academic scientists and big pharma is not always an easy one. University researchers are often the inventors of vaccines and drugs against diseases, but usually the pharmaceutical company that buys up the rights takes almost complete control of the subsequent development. Time was pressing, however, and when AstraZeneca signed up in April, Oxford had already started trials.

The first hitch, which nobody could have foreseen, came in mid-September, when AstraZeneca paused its global trials because a volunteer had become ill. Later it emerged that there had been three cases of transverse myelitis, an inflammation of the spinal cord, of which only one could possibly have been linked to the vaccine. But while trials quickly re-started in the UK, they were paused for seven weeks in the US while regulators asked for more information. US media said AstraZeneca had not told the regulators promptly enough about the cases, a claim the company denied.
Scientists don't foresee that in huge clinical trials using random sets of people from the population that some of them will fall ill for various reasons? Hmmm.

Quote:

The second hitch was in November, when the interim results of the phase 3 trials were announced. Efficacy was around 70%, so lower than Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna, which both scored 95%, but that was not the issue that exercised people – it was the strange finding that efficacy rose to 90% in people given a half dose followed by a whole dose of vaccine.

t was, said Sir Mene Pangalos of AstraZeneca, “serendipity”. In an early trial run by Oxford researchers in the UK, supplies of the prototype vaccine had been delivered that were not the expected strength and some volunteers ended up with a half dose. It was squared with the UK regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Authority, which allowed both dosing regimes to continue.

But when the MHRA approved the vaccine in late December, it turned out that it was not the dosing regime that improved efficacy. It was the increased gap between the vaccines, said the regulator. Some people had received their second dose up to 12 weeks after the first, instead of four. A longer gap led to a better immune response. That laid the groundwork for the government decision to delay second doses for everyone in the UK, using any vaccine. But for many commentators, it looked messy.
A convenient outcome, but odd that the scientists developing the vaccine themselves hadn't noticed this of course.

Odd to call the scientific regulators of other countries 'commentators' rather than 'regulators', 'scientists' or 'authorities'.

Quote:

The big row, however, was about the data in older people, who are most at risk from Covid, and it is not yet resolved. The Oxford researchers running the earliest trials had not wanted to recruit people over the age of 65, at higher risk from Covid, until they were certain the vaccine worked well and was safe for younger people. That meant when it came to filing for approval with regulators, there was little data on the older age group.
While noble intentions are noted here how did other vaccine manufacturers get around this?

Quote:

Neither the European Medicines Agency nor the Food and Drug Administration in the US was happy. The FDA is waiting for data from a 30,000-volunteer trial in the US before deciding whether to approve the vaccine. The German government’s scientific advisers were highly critical. The EMA gave the vaccine emergency approval, but a number of countries, including France and Germany, have decided not to give it to older people.

The latest blow to the vaccine’s public image has been the small trial in just over 2,000 people under age 40 in South Africa. It found “minimal protection” – later said to be 10% – against mild to moderate disease caused by the variant. South Africa announced it was pausing its rollout of the vaccine and will give it to 100,000 people step by step, watching to see if anyone ends up in hospital.

No one was severely ill, hospitalised or died, but the worry is that these were younger people, so less likely to get seriously ill. Oxford/AstraZeneca point to all the trial data showing that nobody has been seriously ill after getting their vaccine (or any of the others) and experts believe the protection is still there against the variant. Once more, however, confidence in the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is likely to take a knock, whether or not it is justified.
Good news to start with - bad news in the middle - but we will finish off by repeating the good news from the start just to reassure you.

We've also invoked nameless, faceless "experts" for further reassurance despite the absence of data.

There's some news in here, and it broadly reflects reality. However there's an awful lot of spin and PR.

daveeb 09-02-2021 15:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36070001)
To quote a former forum member of long ago: “hello pot, this is kettle calling!”

(Anyone else remember Graham? He used to make leather goods and sell them at bondage fairs, and spent hours on here complaining about logical fallacies)

He's probably tied up with other things these days :shocked:

Pierre 09-02-2021 15:40

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36069991)
A BBC opinion piece interpreting science isn't science.

These links are all scientific papers from the articles I posted

Feel free to read them.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S...674(20)30610-3

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6512/89

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...196-1/fulltext

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.20042382v1

https://www.nature.com/articles/natu...=www.bbc.co.uk

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

jfman 09-02-2021 16:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Do any of them assess new variants? If not then I'll politely decline as it's a waste of my time. None hold more weight than the placebo group in a clinical trial referenced earlier.

Pierre 09-02-2021 16:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36070007)
Do any of them assess new variants? If not then I'll politely decline as it's a waste of my time. None hold more weight than the placebo group in a clinical trial referenced earlier.

What has new variant got to do with T-Cell/ B-Cell natural immunity to COVID gained by exposure to other Coronaviruses?

Any variant of COVID is still just another Coronavirus so the logic will still apply.

jfman 09-02-2021 16:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36070010)
What has new variant got to do with T-Cell/ B-Cell natural immunity to COVID gained by exposure to other Coronaviruses?

Any variant of COVID is still just another Coronavirus so the logic will still apply.

Speculative at best.

Pierre 09-02-2021 16:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36070012)
Speculative at best.

It's not speculative, if you had bothered to read the scientific studies I posted you would know that, but then that would mean you were informed.

jfman 09-02-2021 16:58

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36070015)
It's not speculative, if you had bothered to read the scientific studies I posted you would know that, but then that would mean you were informed.

On the contrary Pierre it would mean I became further distracted by speculative nonsense.

We've real world, observed analysis of this coronavirus and it's variants.

If they were all much of a muchness as your simplistic hypothesis suggests then no such observations would take place and, in all likelihood, vaccines would perform roughly the same. It's all T cell and B cell immunity after all, innit?

Paul 09-02-2021 17:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36070015)
It's not speculative, if you had bothered to read the scientific studies I posted you would know that, but then that would mean you were informed.

You're wasting your time, he will just argue and argue and argue until you get fed up.
Only he is right, no one else, all seeing and all knowing, you should know that by now. :sleep:

Now I think about it, he really does remind me of Graham, thanks Chris. :)

Pierre 09-02-2021 18:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36070026)
You're wasting your time, he will just argue and argue and argue until you get fed up.
Only he is right, no one else, all seeing and all knowing, you should know that by now. :sleep:

Now I think about it, he really does remind me of Graham, thanks Chris. :)

I know but I can't help myself, sort of a self flagellation. A morbid curiosity of the diseased mind.

---------- Post added at 18:20 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36070017)
On the contrary Pierre it would mean I became further distracted by speculative nonsense.

We've real world, observed analysis of this coronavirus and it's variants.

If they were all much of a muchness as your simplistic hypothesis suggests then no such observations would take place and, in all likelihood, vaccines would perform roughly the same. It's all T cell and B cell immunity after all, innit?

Not my hypothesis.

Quote:

hCoV Cross-Reactive T Cell Memory
There is now also evidence that pre-existing T cell immunity to common cold coronaviruses can prime the response to SARS-CoV-2. Using functional validation of predicted epitopes when arranged in epitope “megapools” and using PBMCs derived from convalescing COVID-19 cases, Grifoni et al. (49) recently reported that all patients studied consistently generated a substantial CD4+/CD8+ T cell response against SARS-CoV-2. In terms of total CD4+ T cell response per donor, on average ~50% of the detected response was directed against the Spike protein, and ~50% was directed against the rest of the SARS-CoV-2 ORFeome. More importantly, when the exact same set of experimental techniques were used with blood samples from healthy control donors (collected between 2015 and 2018) substantial cross-reactive coronavirus T cell memory was detected, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between seasonal cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2. All healthy donors were IgG seropositive to HCoV-OC43 and NL63 RBD, to varying degrees, in line with the endemic nature of these viruses (50–54).
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...Bu9EUlI5BK5nlY

This is all very new cutting edge stuff, and it goes some way to explaining why there are such varying responses to the Virus, and why so many people seem to be unaffected by it.

joglynne 09-02-2021 19:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
Covid vaccine tracker.
Quote:

Researchers are in the process of developing more than 170 potential vaccines to protect against coronavirus.
Never before have so many teams worked simultaneously to create a drug that could save the lives of millions of people.
Sky News is following the race to create a vaccine to protect against COVID-19.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ccine-12030675

jfman 09-02-2021 21:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36070026)
You're wasting your time, he will just argue and argue and argue until you get fed up.
Only he is right, no one else, all seeing and all knowing, you should know that by now. :sleep:

Now I think about it, he really does remind me of Graham, thanks Chris. :)

I'm not really sure what my motivation for doing as you describe would be.

Some members have been consistently over-optimistic, clutching at one straw after another after another to be disappointed as we enter new restrictions (and new lockdowns) because they ignored what has been staring them in the face for some time.

I'm more interested in why others want to live in denial of the evidence out there and clutch at outdated hypothetical studies that contradict the real world data because it gives them a more comforting, if deluded, narrative.

However, I can offer some positive news in Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced that 97% of Covid deaths that have occurred in the last 30 days have occurred in the non-vaccinated community. I'm sure they'll be looking into the 3% very closely. It'll be interesting to see when (or if) similar data emerges and if they'll break it down by who has had one dose or both doses of the appropriate vaccine.

1andrew1 09-02-2021 22:52

Re: Coronavirus
 
I've not had a chance to view it, but Sky News has an interesting series on lessons learnt from the Coronavirus crisis in the UK.
Quote:

What follows is an in-depth look at the UK's handling of a pandemic that changed all our lives in ways unimaginable even just a year ago. What worked in our response? What didn't? How can we be better prepared next time?
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...he-uk-12212258

Angua 10-02-2021 07:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36070001)
To quote a former forum member of long ago: “hello pot, this is kettle calling!”

(Anyone else remember Graham? He used to make leather goods and sell them at bondage fairs, and spent hours on here complaining about logical fallacies)

I missed Graham, he could be very funny when pointing out said logical fallacies.

Sephiroth 10-02-2021 09:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36070001)
To quote a former forum member of long ago: “hello pot, this is kettle calling!”

(Anyone else remember Graham? He used to make leather goods and sell them at bondage fairs, and spent hours on here complaining about logical fallacies)

... phalluses?

Hom3r 10-02-2021 12:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
We should have followed Australia.


I was talking to my cousin who live in Perth Australia, the other day they had their first case in 10 months, within 3 hours they had a 5-day lockdown.

She said police challenged and offered a guy a mask, he refused saying it's a conspiracy etc, well he was sent to prison for 3 months.


I can't read it myself as it doesn't like my ad blocker, I did see 18 days (I guess it includes good behaviour.)


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-lockdown.html


https://www.ladbible.com/news/latest...kdown-20210202

pip08456 10-02-2021 14:03

Re: Coronavirus
 
Here you go Hom3r.
Quote:

A shopper will spend 18 days in jail after he refused to wear a face mask on the first day of Perth's harsh coronavirus lockdown.

The 41-year-old man was outside a shopping centre on the Great Eastern Highway in Midland when he was approached by police officers on Monday.

Police allege the man was not wearing a face mask and asked him to do so, in accordance with the latest restrictions in the city.

Face masks were made mandatory as metropolitan Perth, the Peel region and the South West region were plunged into a five-day lockdown after a hotel quarantine security guard tested positive to Covid-19.

1andrew1 10-02-2021 15:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine recommended for adults of all ages, say scientists advising the World Health Organisation
https://news.sky.com/story/oxford-as...ation-12214373

papa smurf 10-02-2021 15:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36070106)
Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine recommended for adults of all ages, say scientists advising the World Health Organisation
https://news.sky.com/story/oxford-as...ation-12214373

It's good for all age groups IF you ordered it on time :)

jfman 10-02-2021 16:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36070107)
It's good for all age groups IF you ordered it on time :)

Can also be read as "it's better than doing nothing, but not much better than doing nothing in South Africa". ;)

1andrew1 10-02-2021 16:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36070107)
It's good for all age groups IF you ordered it on time :)

South Africa are considering selling theirs so this could be an opportunity for some countries.

jfman 10-02-2021 17:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36070111)
South Africa are considering selling theirs so this could be an opportunity for some countries.

The emerging data will inform quite a lot of countries strategies going forward. Where the SA variant is already prevalent and cannot be controlled this will mean extended restrictions.

The fact it has shown up in the Alps is probably a sign it's too late for many Central European to lockdown, test, trace and isolate their way out quickly.

Chris 10-02-2021 17:49

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36070106)
Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine recommended for adults of all ages, say scientists advising the World Health Organisation
https://news.sky.com/story/oxford-as...ation-12214373

For all ages, in all countries (even those where variants predominate) and incidentally, the extended gap between doses is also recommended as it increases efficacy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56011981

---------- Post added at 17:49 ---------- Previous post was at 17:41 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36070109)
Can also be read as "it's better than doing nothing, but not much better than doing nothing in South Africa". ;)

For someone who claims to follow the science, you have a very hard time following the science.

The safety, efficacy and dosage of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine just keeps on being reaffirmed by study after study ... sooner or later you’re going to have to stop offering Corbynesque wishes for the success of all vaccines of whatever origin, and accept that the vaccine most closely tied to British government policy represents a major policy triumph.

1andrew1 10-02-2021 18:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

AstraZeneca agrees German manufacturing deal to fill vaccine hole

AstraZeneca has enlisted German drug producer IDT Biologika to assist increase manufacturing of its Covid-19 vaccine and deal with provide shortages in Europe.

Both companies will invest to expand manufacturing capacity at IDT Biologika’s production site in Dessau, building up to five 2,000-litre bioreactors able to produce tens of millions of doses a month of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.

The new capacity is forecast to be operational by the end of 2022, but the partnership also said it was looking at other ways to increase output from the second quarter of this year.
https://www.newsworldexpress.com/202...l-vaccine-gap/

nomadking 10-02-2021 18:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36070111)
South Africa are considering selling theirs so this could be an opportunity for some countries.

Are they allowed to resell it, as the original purchase will have been on a cost-only basis?

Pierre 10-02-2021 18:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36070118)
The emerging data will inform quite a lot of countries strategies going forward. Where the SA variant is already prevalent and cannot be controlled this will mean extended restrictions.

The fact it has shown up in the Alps is probably a sign it's too late for many Central European to lockdown, test, trace and isolate their way out quickly.

Has the SA variant been proven to give a more serious illness and/or be more deadly?


I'll answer that for you, no it hasn't.

1andrew1 10-02-2021 19:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36070126)
Are they allowed to resell it, as the original purchase will have been on a cost-only basis?

I suspect any resale would be done in conjunction with the supplier and they wouldn't be allowed to profit from the situation. More details here
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ccine-12214352

jfman 10-02-2021 21:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris
For someone who claims to follow the science, you have a very hard time following the science.

There was a slight exaggeration for papa's benefit, acknowledged by the wink.

Quote:

The safety, efficacy and dosage of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine just keeps on being reaffirmed by study after study ... sooner or later you’re going to have to stop offering Corbynesque wishes for the success of all vaccines of whatever origin, and accept that the vaccine most closely tied to British government policy represents a major policy triumph.
Preferably sooner and not later, then I can get back to the pub. I'm not sure anyone has ever questioned the safety and the dosage was put into question themselves and contradictory analysis on whether it's the dosage or the gap that caused the benefit.

Efficacy against the South African variant is proven to be low, and the hypothesis that it prevents severe cases is just that.

Not sure what you've got against vaccines in other countries the global economy and supply chains won't return to normal (and I won't be able to get on my holidays) until the majority of people here and there get a functional vaccine against the prevalent strains.

---------- Post added at 21:37 ---------- Previous post was at 21:33 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36070127)
Has the SA variant been proven to give a more serious illness and/or be more deadly?

I'll answer that for you, no it hasn't.

Has the opposite been proven? Until it has I don't see Governments taking the gamble but feel free to clutch at that straw for the time being.

Pierre 10-02-2021 23:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36070142)
Efficacy against the South African variant is proven to be low, and the hypothesis that it prevents severe cases is just that.

No it isn’t and no it isn’t, but apart from that you’re right on both counts.

1andrew1 10-02-2021 23:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36070150)
No it isn’t and no it isn’t, but apart from that you’re right on both counts.

Efficacy against the South African variant may not meet your burden of proof test, but it does for the South Africans who are looking to swap or sell their Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ccine-12214352

With the current low level of cases in the UK of the South African variant, we're obviously fine with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in the UK.

nomadking 10-02-2021 23:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36070153)
Efficacy against the South African variant may not meet your burden of proof test, but it does for the South Africans who are looking to swap or sell their Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ccine-12214352

With the current low level of cases in the UK of the South African variant, we're obviously fine with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in the UK.

The SA decision came before the more recent evidence.

jfman 11-02-2021 02:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36070153)
Efficacy against the South African variant may not meet your burden of proof test, but it does for the South Africans who are looking to swap or sell their Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ccine-12214352

With the current low level of cases in the UK of the South African variant, we're obviously fine with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in the UK.

Let’s face it Pierre has no “burden of proof” test. After all 99.2% recover from this illness as he keeps reminding us. Governments are over egging this for more power and control. They want their population scared. :rolleyes:

The big pointer for me is whether the Government suspends door to door testing in areas where the SA variant and Kent variant are spreading. If they don’t it suggests that they’re working internally closer to my view than more positive interpretations.

1andrew1 11-02-2021 03:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36070154)
The SA decision came before the more recent evidence.

Which evidence in particular are you referring to?

jfman 11-02-2021 03:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36070158)
Which evidence in particular are you referring to?

My guess is it's the WHO announcement. The WHO who famously denied airborne transmission until June.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52945210

The WHO in offering their 'interperatation' have to consider a multitude of factors including confidence in worldwide vaccination programmes, current spread of variants, availability of vaccines.

On balance of course it makes sense at a global level to distribute the AZ vaccine to all age groups. As we sit today, you're far more likely to catch the older variants than the new ones in almost all territories in the world. You're probably more likely to be offered an AZ vaccine than any other. Should people not get vaccinated and wait? Of course not, that's patently ridiculous. It's better in arms than in the bin.

That said, as the race to ease restrictions here and abroad presses on the other variant questions become more important. I do note the shift from reaching the "herd immunity threshold" to "preventing severe disease". If that's not possible I'm sure the PR spin will move on to how it's a race and good that we've scaled up infrastructure for the Autumn booster. Which is actually true, I'd just not be getting my hopes up for a quick end to restrictions unless test, trace, isolate gets the SA/Kent variants under control and border measures keep the Brazil variants out.

Paul 11-02-2021 04:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Isnt this topic great - I love knowing that Cable Forum has so many all knowing, all seeing, virus experts to keep us all safe, I dont understand why all the worlds leaders, the WHO, and scientists are not logging in daily for their advice. :D

jfman 11-02-2021 04:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Too busy siphoning off billions of taxpayers funds to their pals, I suspect. A political career is short and not very lucrative.

Got to tee up those directorships, consultancies and well paid after dinner engagements to pay the bills in later life.


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