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-   -   UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33708171)

Sephiroth 24-08-2020 14:47

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047561)
Brexiters don't have homogenous views.

---------- Post added at 14:37 ---------- Previous post was at 14:33 ----------

A nice thought but a fantasy - I acknowledge we're leaving but I also acknowledge our incompetence on managing Covid 19 and the need for more negotiating time. It's not too early to talk about the app fiasco, the care homes fiasco, the exams results fiasco...I could go on but to save your blushes I shan't.
Fishing rights aren't key and can be sorted with a phased withdrawal of rights and cash. A level playing field is the prize for the EU.

Yes we are in agreement on that second paragraph.

The 'prize' that the EU want ties both our hands and our whatsit behind our back. That is not acceptable.


1andrew1 24-08-2020 14:56

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047563)
Yes we are in agreement on that second paragraph.

The 'prize' that the EU want ties both our hands and our whatsit behind our back. That is not acceptable.


Is it worse than a no-deal? No. Is it worse than membership? Yes.
The Wirecard fraud situation may work in our favour as it shows how the EU benefits from the City of London. But preying in aid to the City may not work.

Hugh 24-08-2020 15:01

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047560)
Just on one side?

On any side

OLD BOY 24-08-2020 16:52

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047561)
Brexiters don't have homogenous views.

---------- Post added at 14:37 ---------- Previous post was at 14:33 ----------

A nice thought but a fantasy - I acknowledge we're leaving but I also acknowledge our incompetence on managing Covid 19 and the need for more negotiating time. It's not too early to talk about the app fiasco, the care homes fiasco, the exams results fiasco...I could go on but to save your blushes I shan't.
Fishing rights aren't key and can be sorted with a phased withdrawal of rights and cash. A level playing field is the prize for the EU.

Except I'm not blushing, nor in any danger of it. There have certainly been some blunders and inefficiences around PPE, the app, the care homes and exam results. However, the bungling was by public servants - and the politicians clearly misplaced their faith in taking them at their word when it came to what would work. NHS procurement officers failed to stock enough PPE (they were not alone in the world) it was Simon Stevens who directed the hospitals to clear out patients from care homes back to their normal establishments, where they passed the virus to other residents, and it was Ofqual who came up with the dodgy algorythm.

I think it probably was the government that slipped up with their optimism on having our own app, although they were persuaded by their officers that their app was better than all the others. And some people wonder why Boris wants to shake up the Civil Service and the quangoes!

But all this is just deflection on your part, Andrew. This thread is about Brexit, not Covid, and the constant mantra that we should extend the duration of these negotiations is negative, tiresome and in the end, pointless.

Have you not clocked yet that the British public want all this to be over? Extending negotiations will just defer the inevitable, whatever that is - deal or no deal.

---------- Post added at 16:52 ---------- Previous post was at 16:47 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047564)
Is it worse than a no-deal? No. Is it worse than membership? Yes.

That's not what the British electorate believes. Of course it's worse than no deal.

The British public wants us out of the EU, with or without a deal. I thought that was clear, even to you. My bad

1andrew1 24-08-2020 16:56

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047573)
But all this is just deflection on your part, Andrew. This thread is about Brexit, not Covid, and the constant mantra that we should extend the duration of these negotiations is negative, tiresome and in the end, pointless.

Have you not clocked yet that the British public want all this to be over? Extending negotiations will just defer the inevitable, whatever that is - deal or no deal.

No deflection on my part Old Boy, my point has clearly eluded you but to reiterate - BoJo's fumbling government seems to be over-stretched. tackling Covid and Brexit so to avoid a bad deal we need to extend. No deal is not an option.

If we leave with no deal this year, we start negotiations in 2022 from a position of weakness and also with no EU goodwill. You've clearly forgotten that Brexit doesn't end with no deal! That actually elongates the process as there will be lots of squabbling and a succession of smaller deals. You let the genie out of the bag in 2016 and it ain't going away. Negotiations with the EU are no part of British life for the forseeable future.

OLD BOY 24-08-2020 17:04

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047577)
No deflection on my part Old Boy, my point has clearly eluded you but to reiterate - BoJo's fumbling government seems to be over-stretched. tackling Covid and Brexit so to avoid a bad deal we need to extend. No deal is not an option.

If we leave with no deal this year, we start negotiations in 2022 from a position of weakness and also with no EU goodwill. You've clearly forgotten that Brexit doesn't end with no deal! That actually elongates the process as there will be lots of squabbling and a succession of smaller deals. You let the genie out of the bag in 2016 and it ain't going away. Negotiations with the EU are no part of British life for the forseeable future.

Sorry, Andrew, it's you who has missed the point. It's not the government fumbling, it is its officers. And I did make the point that extending the deadline for a deal will make no difference to the EU's attitude. They will continue to be difficult until the bitter end.

All you can see is this big monster EU presence and poor little Britain cowering in the corner. You may be in for a surprise.

Hugh 24-08-2020 17:06

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047573)
Except I'm not blushing, nor in any danger of it. There have certainly been some blunders and inefficiences around PPE, the app, the care homes and exam results. However, the bungling was by public servants - and the politicians clearly misplaced their faith in taking them at their word when it came to what would work. NHS procurement officers failed to stock enough PPE (they were not alone in the world) it was Simon Stevens who directed the hospitals to clear out patients from care homes back to their normal establishments, where they passed the virus to other residents, and it was Ofqual who came up with the dodgy algorythm.

I think it probably was the government that slipped up with their optimism on having our own app, although they were persuaded by their officers that their app was better than all the others. And some people wonder why Boris wants to shake up the Civil Service and the quangoes!

But all this is just deflection on your part, Andrew. This thread is about Brexit, not Covid, and the constant mantra that we should extend the duration of these negotiations is negative, tiresome and in the end, pointless.

Have you not clocked yet that the British public want all this to be over? Extending negotiations will just defer the inevitable, whatever that is - deal or no deal.

Funny how the Government gets the credit when things go right, but it's the Civil Servants' fault when it goes wrong... :dozey:

The ones who were saying the App would work were the outsourced contractors and the Ministers - everyone else was saying "it won't work".

Was it the Civil Servants fault when Boris didn't deliver the “clear plan we have prepared to give every older person the dignity and security they deserve” in July 2019, on the steps of Downing Street?

Was it the Civil Servants' fault when Boris told NI businesses that "There will be no forms, no checks, no barriers of any kind. You will have unfettered access.”, when in fact they will be checks and forms to fill in?

---------- Post added at 17:06 ---------- Previous post was at 17:05 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047579)
Sorry, Andrew, it's you who has missed the point. It's not the government fumbling, it is its officers. And I did make the point that extending the deadline for a deal will make no difference to the EU's attitude. They will continue to be difficult until the bitter end.

All you can see is this big monster EU presence and poor little Britain cowering in the corner. You may be in for a surprise.

The Government is responsible for the actions of it's workers, Civil Servants and politicians - it goes with the job.

They get paid the big bucks, they have to own the problems, not blamestorm.

1andrew1 24-08-2020 17:46

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047579)
Sorry, Andrew, it's you who has missed the point. It's not the government fumbling, it is its officers.

As this is not the Covid thread I'll be succinct - the Government took a lot of the key decisions about Covid eg outsourcing track and trace and the Conservatives have had 10 years to get the civil service right. Blame cannot be swerved.
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047579)
And I did make the point that extending the deadline for a deal will make no difference to the EU's attitude. They will continue to be difficult until the bitter end.
All you can see is this big monster EU presence and poor little Britain cowering in the corner. You may be in for a surprise.

There is no bitter end Old Boy. You completely fail to understand that no-deal is only the start of more discussions.
The penny is finally start to drop with some of the mainstream Brexit press like the Daily Mail and The Sun. I hope it drops with you before too long.

Hom3r 24-08-2020 18:56

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
I was watching the news, and they asked Tony B about the governments handling of the Covid-19, I fell of my sofa when he did slag them off, in fact he almost praised them.

papa smurf 25-08-2020 08:56

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
EU insider lifts lid on how Barnier's negotiating camp now racked with defeatist pessimism

The growing sense of despondency within Michel Barnier's team is fuelled by fears of a bitter no deal Brexit with EU negotiators braced for a vicious "blame game" over who is responsible for the stalemate. Last week's tense talks which ended in stalemate did nothing to lift flagging spirits in Brussels.

Ooh le heck,le reality ezz not what they thought eet was.;)

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...er-david-frost

1andrew1 25-08-2020 09:57

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
The two recurring issues are fishing rights and a level playing field.

If a suitable deal on fishing des not happen, a free trade deal won't happen. And no deal will result in French fishermen blocking Calais and no market for our fish. If a deal is reached, expect cash (hidden to keep the Breixters happy) to pension off some of the French fishing fleet over time and a gradual withdrawal from British waters.

The EU has free trading deals with all the main trading blocs and countries though its recent one with the US seems quite limited. Such deals confer on the signatories improvements to the deals if the EU negotiates deals with other countries. So the EU is not going to start removing its level playing field requirement with the UK as it will open the floodgates globally to subsidised goods being dumped in the single market.

The EU has made its red lines in these areas quite clear.

Let's remind ourselves of the cards held. The UK has trade deals with South Korea, Switzerland and Liechenstein.

The EU has its own market of 450m people plus trade deals with most blocs and countries in the world including Japan and Canada. And and its team negotiating with NZ was praised whilst the UK's was called "not match fit".

Anyone still think we hold all the cards? Thought not!

papa smurf 25-08-2020 10:15

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047679)
The two recurring issues are fishing rights and a level playing field.

If a suitable deal on fishing des not happen, a free trade deal won't happen. And no deal will result in French fishermen blocking Calais and no market for our fish. If a deal is reached, expect cash (hidden to keep the Breixters happy) to pension off some of the French fishing fleet over time and a gradual withdrawal from British waters.

The EU has free trading deals with all the main trading blocs and countries though its recent one with the US seems quite limited. Such deals confer on the signatories improvements to the deals if the EU negotiates deals with other countries. So the EU is not going to start removing its level playing field requirement with the UK as it will open the floodgates globally to subsidised goods being dumped in the single market.

The EU has made its red lines in these areas quite clear.

Let's remind ourselves of the cards held. The UK has trade deals with South Korea, Switzerland and Liechenstein.

The EU has its own market of 450m people plus trade deals with most blocs and countries in the world including Japan and Canada. And and its team negotiating with NZ was praised whilst the UK's was called "not match fit".

Anyone still think we hold all the cards? Thought not!

Does anyone think we don't hold all the cards ? thought not :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Carth 25-08-2020 10:15

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
But Andrew, you said in an earlier post that 'there are plenty of non UK fish in the sea', so why do they desperately need our fish?

Can't wait for the French to start blockading ports again, years since we've seen so much fun. :D

and do you really think that if a 'secret' deal was struck by the UK to pension off the French fishing fleet, it would stay out of the news?

papa smurf 25-08-2020 10:19

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36047686)
But Andrew, you said in an earlier post that 'there are plenty of non UK fish in the sea', so why do they desperately need our fish?

Can't wait for the French to start blockading ports again, years since we've seen so much fun. :D

and do you really think that if a 'secret' deal was struck by the UK to pension off the French fishing fleet, it would stay out of the news?

You might find it easier to communicate with him using semaphore,get a couple of white flags and wave them around it's the only language he understands;)

Hugh 25-08-2020 10:35

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
You forgot this bit from the article, explains the blame game will be in the UK team, not the EU...
Quote:

An EU insider said: "Outsiders don’t realise how pessimistic we’ve become.

"We expect the mood to switch rapidly to contingency planning, in expectation the UK will throw itself into the blame game rather than the end game.

"The idea that if we do end up with no deal it’ll be because the EU underestimated the UK’s determination is misplaced.
Ooh le heck,le reality ezz not what vous thought eet was.

papa smurf 25-08-2020 10:43

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36047694)
You forgot this bit from the article, explains the blame game will be in the UK team, not the EU...

Ooh le heck,le reality ezz not what vous thought eet was.

I deed not forgeet it it waz in zee article,and by zee way your French eez le terrible;)

1andrew1 25-08-2020 10:49

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36047686)
But Andrew, you said in an earlier post that 'there are plenty of non UK fish in the sea', so why do they desperately need our fish?

Can't wait for the French to start blockading ports again, years since we've seen so much fun. :D

and do you really think that if a 'secret' deal was struck by the UK to pension off the French fishing fleet, it would stay out of the news?

Fish is a generic term - perhaps the species the French like are in our waters? Blockading ports and disrupting medicine supplies is not a great place to be in, especially with Covid still present. There's been plenty of financial deals struck so far with the EU giving billions away (think our shares in the EIB for example ) so something like this for a few million extra in development funds for the ports of Calais and Dover can easily be done, no issues. When the Government's chopping down money tree forests the size of the Amazon, such things won't be apparent.

Hugh 25-08-2020 11:00

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36047698)
I deed not forgeet it it waz in zee article,and by zee way your French eez le terrible;)

My apologies - I should have said "you conveniently omitted this part, which contradicted what you posted".

I'll try to be clearer next time... :D

nomadking 25-08-2020 11:34

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
The EU buy and eat fish caught in UK waters. How are they going to make up any shortfall? The EU fishing quotas will have been reduced because of the reduction of the potential fishing area, so increasing fishing in non-UK waters isn't an option.

papa smurf 25-08-2020 11:45

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36047712)
The EU buy and eat fish caught in UK waters. How are they going to make up any shortfall? The EU fishing quotas will have been reduced because of the reduction of the potential fishing area, so increasing fishing in non-UK waters isn't an option.

Theft probably.

Sephiroth 25-08-2020 12:00

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36047698)
I deed not forgeet it it waz in zee article,and by zee way your French eez le terrible;)

... et tres obtusement.

---------- Post added at 12:00 ---------- Previous post was at 11:59 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36047712)
The EU buy and eat fish caught in UK waters. How are they going to make up any shortfall? The EU fishing quotas will have been reduced because of the reduction of the potential fishing area, so increasing fishing in non-UK waters isn't an option.

The same way the Scots will make up the £25 billion (or whatever)!

Carth 25-08-2020 12:09

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
* How are they going to make up any shortfall? *

Well they could go cap in hand to Norway or Iceland and hope to persuade them to increase the EU quota allowed ;)

Hugh 25-08-2020 22:40

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047715)
... et tres obtusement.

---------- Post added at 12:00 ---------- Previous post was at 11:59 ----------



The same way the Scots will make up the £25 billion (or whatever)!

https://memeguy.com/photos/images/yo...ies-311724.gif

Hamster, elderberries, etc., etc.. :D

1andrew1 26-08-2020 00:11

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Looks like the Government has acknowledged its negotiating team is indeed not "match fit" and is desperately bringing some business expertise on board.

Better late than never!
Quote:

Some of the City of London’s most prominent business leaders have been drafted in by the government to consult on the UK’s ongoing trade negotiations.

Leaders from companies such as EY, Barclays and HSBC will be members of the Department of International Trade’s newly formed trade advisory groups.

The government is simultaneously negotiating trade deal with the EU, US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand as the UK prepares to leave the EU’s customs union and single market on 31 December.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...ns/ar-BB18mIGn

Carth 26-08-2020 01:58

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Bankers & Accountants . . . just what we need to screw things up again :rolleyes:

Hugh 26-08-2020 09:44

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36047788)
Bankers & Accountants . . . just what we need to screw things up again :rolleyes:

Well, since Finacial Services are 75 (over £130 million per year) of the the UK’s economic output, they are quote useful...

GrimUpNorth 26-08-2020 09:45

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36047788)
Bankers & Accountants . . . just what we need to screw things up again :rolleyes:

Maybe the government have learnt from their past mistakes and ineptitude, and have finally decided they've had enough of half arsed screw-ups and are going out of their way to make sure they do it properly ;)

1andrew1 26-08-2020 11:58

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36047788)
Bankers & Accountants . . . just what we need to screw things up again :rolleyes:

I think the principle here is: If you know you're about to screw things up royally, make sure your scapegoats are in place beforehand. ;)

Sephiroth 06-09-2020 23:34

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Excellent that the UK is telling the EU to do one.

It's very clear to all that we cannot be the EU's vassal post-Brexit. They still accuse us of wanting our cake to eat whilst demanding that they have our fish to eat on their terms.

Never mind the miniscule economic impact over the fisheries that the Remainers try to shove in our faces. Leaving the EU means we plough an independent furrow and develop accordingly.

Coronavirus has given us an opportunity because the EU is an arguing institution ravaged by the disease. They have to recover their disparate economies whereas we have to just grow ourselves, by our rules (of which they are scared stiff).

Sod 'em (and Sturgeon).


Hugh 07-09-2020 00:17

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Problem is, the UK are breaking a signed treaty, at the time we want to be signing new treaties with lots of countries - why should any country trust us to uphold the terms of a treaty, when we are showing we won’t?

https://www.ft.com/content/9906e0d4-...0-130c75a2f7a7
Quote:

The UK is planning new legislation that will override key parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, risking the collapse of trade negotiations with Brussels.

Sections of the internal market bill — due to be published this Wednesday — are expected to “eliminate the legal force of parts of the withdrawal agreement” in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs, according to three people familiar with the plans...

..."It is a very blunt instrument,” said one of those familiar with the matter. “The bill will explicitly say the government reserves the right to set its own regime, directly setting up UK law in opposition with obligations under the withdrawal agreement, and in full cognisance that this will breach international law"

Dave42 07-09-2020 00:45

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048864)
Problem is, the UK are breaking a signed treaty, at the time we want to be signing new treaties with lots of countries - why should any country trust us to uphold the terms of a treaty, when we are showing we won’t?

https://www.ft.com/content/9906e0d4-...0-130c75a2f7a7

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

nomadking 07-09-2020 01:55

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
"reserves the right" is not the same as "is going to". What does the UN Convention on Law of the Seas, say about who controls fishing in UK waters?

Chris 07-09-2020 07:34

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048864)
Problem is, the UK are breaking a signed treaty, at the time we want to be signing new treaties with lots of countries - why should any country trust us to uphold the terms of a treaty, when we are showing we won’t?

https://www.ft.com/content/9906e0d4-...0-130c75a2f7a7

Except that they aren’t.

The bill is worded so as to allow for a course of action, it does not implement that course of action. In circumstances such as these, the two are worlds apart. As drafted, it amounts to a threat, and taken in concert with other comments made over the weekend (no doubt all perfectly coordinated) is part of a strategy to pressure the EU into accepting that any permanent trade deal will not in any way leave the U.K. with a sort of associate membership status. Only once the EU drops its negotiating aim of keeping the U.K. aligned, will it be possible for a deal to be reached.

1andrew1 07-09-2020 08:24

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048862)

Coronavirus has given us an opportunity because the EU is an arguing institution ravaged by the disease. They have to recover their disparate economies whereas we have to just grow ourselves, by our rules (of which they are scared stiff).
Sod 'em (and Sturgeon).

Where have you been, Seph? Coronavirus has ravaged the UK too, arguably worse than many of our peers.

If there is no deal, the EU has deals with most of the world, its own internal market of 450m and has the infrastructure and people in place to cope. Embarrassingly as a Brit, we have neither.

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 08:36

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048874)
Where have you been, Seph? Coronavirus has ravaged the UK too, arguably worse than many of our peers.

If there is no deal, the EU has deals with most of the world, its own internal market of 450m and has the infrastructure and people in place to cope. Embarrassingly as a Brit, we have neither.

I agree with your first paragraph but you could have taken that for granted. My point, which could have been better expressed, is that the UK has to climb out of the Covid ravages much like the EU has to. There is little there in the EU right now (ravaged) that can help us to grow faster as they're too busy with themselves, and then not in concert because they are not really a cohesive union.

What you should be saying, as a Brit, is that a deal with the EU would be better than no deal, but not at any price and certainly not a deal that makes us a vassal state to the EU.

You seem still to be fighting the referendum battle.



Carth 07-09-2020 09:39

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Here's a little tip for those who keep blasting the UK over its Brexit stance, and feel the UK is doomed and the EU is still the best place to live & work . . .


. . there are a few places on the SE coast that have a growing collection of dinghies. I'm sure that if you fully explain your situation, they'll let you have one with which to escape to the nearest EU coast . . . they'll probably give you the fuel required too :p:

hope this helps ;)

Kushan 07-09-2020 10:17

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048864)
Problem is, the UK are breaking a signed treaty, at the time we want to be signing new treaties with lots of countries - why should any country trust us to uphold the terms of a treaty, when we are showing we won’t?

https://www.ft.com/content/9906e0d4-...0-130c75a2f7a7

Something something respect what was voted for something something.

Oh wait, I forgot that only applies to remoaners.

OLD BOY 07-09-2020 11:08

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048864)
Problem is, the UK are breaking a signed treaty, at the time we want to be signing new treaties with lots of countries - why should any country trust us to uphold the terms of a treaty, when we are showing we won’t?

https://www.ft.com/content/9906e0d4-...0-130c75a2f7a7

Because that treaty assumed that we would get a deal with the EU. If we don't get that, why would we continue with a treaty that assumed a trade deal?

Who wants their cake and eat it now?

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 11:12

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36048895)
Because that treaty assumed that we would get a deal with the EU. If we don't get that, why would we continue with a treaty that assumed a trade deal?

Who wants their cake and eat it now?

Well said, OB.

OLD BOY 07-09-2020 11:13

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048874)
Where have you been, Seph? Coronavirus has ravaged the UK too, arguably worse than many of our peers.

If there is no deal, the EU has deals with most of the world, its own internal market of 450m and has the infrastructure and people in place to cope. Embarrassingly as a Brit, we have neither.

You missed the bit where Seph said we will grow our own economy.

Don't give us that old chestnut about 'no deal' being a disaster. Most trade around the world is on WTO terms. There are other places other than the EU where we can forge deals more suited to our requirements than was possible in the EU. Some are already virtually there, ready to be implemented in 2021.

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 11:24

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36048897)
You missed the bit where Seph said we will grow our own economy.

Don't give us that old chestnut about 'no deal' being a disaster. Most trade around the world is on WTO terms. There are other places other than the EU where we can forge deals more suited to our requirements than was possible in the EU. Some are already virtually there, ready to be implemented in 2021.

Exactly.

And Covid has put the EU and the UK into the GDP doldrums and there is no sign that having a trade deal with the EU right now would lead to any better a long term outcome since everything is stagnant. So we rebuild in competition with the EU, which we always were anyway.


1andrew1 07-09-2020 12:06

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36048897)
You missed the bit where Seph said we will grow our own economy.

Don't give us that old chestnut about 'no deal' being a disaster. Most trade around the world is on WTO terms. There are other places other than the EU where we can forge deals more suited to our requirements than was possible in the EU. Some are already virtually there, ready to be implemented in 2021.

Old Boy, wake up and smell the coffee! We're in the middle of a huge recession. The economy isn't growing.
Also, why resort to the straw man if you believe in your arguments? I've not said WTO terms will be a disaster but they will be very damaging. It's a Leaver Professor, Patrick Minford, who has said Brexit will lead to the end of UK manufacturing.
The trade deals you refer to replicate a couple that we already enjoy at the moment. Losing deals with the US, Canada and the EU will not advance our economy.

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 12:11

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
My understanding is that the Guvmin's planned legislation is intended to allow the UK to alter its implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement in the event of a no deal scenario.

No doubt the legal analysis by pundits will emerge, but my take on this is that the WA was in part founded on the assumption that a trade deal would follow the transition period and should that not happen, then the UK would not be tied to certain parts of the WA.


What really tickles me here is the distraction this will cause within the higher EU echelons. It's a master stroke by the Guvmin.

Remainers, like Hugh, will/have bleat/ed that if we break a treaty, who else will trust us with a trade deal. That is extremely naive; the world is watching the drama of the Brexit negotiations and fully understand that the EU is trying to eat the UK's cake whilst accusing the UK of the reverse. Diplomacy will also smooth things out with our other partners. The outrage that the Remainers will display will also be amusing and provide much entertainment.


jonbxx 07-09-2020 12:13

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36048895)
Because that treaty assumed that we would get a deal with the EU. If we don't get that, why would we continue with a treaty that assumed a trade deal?

Who wants their cake and eat it now?

The trade deal assumptions were written in the Political Declaration which we promptly shredded after the election

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 12:23

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36048904)
The trade deal assumptions were written in the Political Declaration which we promptly shredded after the election

The WA states:

Quote:

NOTING that in parallel with this Agreement, the Parties have made a Political Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

CONSIDERING that there is a need for both the United Kingdom and the Union to take all necessary steps to begin as soon as possible from the date of entry into force of this Agreement, the formal negotiations of one or several agreements governing their future relationship with a view to ensuring that, to the extent possible, those agreements apply from the end of the transition period,
The UK's legal advisors would likely have advised that the EU are not negotiating in good faith and thus the WA falls to the extent that a trade deal would otherwise have enshrined - if you get my meaning.



1andrew1 07-09-2020 12:26

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Good link from a Nissan insider which dispels many remainer and leaver myths on the situation for the company.
https://www.quora.com/Why-would-Niss...58e3&srid=3fST

Hugh 07-09-2020 12:36

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048907)
The WA states:



The UK's legal advisors would likely have advised that the EU are not negotiating in good faith and thus the WA falls to the extent that a trade deal would otherwise have enshrined - if you get my meaning.



That’s not how treaties work, unless it’s explicitly stated as such in the treaty (and it isn’t).

---------- Post added at 12:36 ---------- Previous post was at 12:32 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36048872)
Except that they aren’t.

The bill is worded so as to allow for a course of action, it does not implement that course of action. In circumstances such as these, the two are worlds apart. As drafted, it amounts to a threat, and taken in concert with other comments made over the weekend (no doubt all perfectly coordinated) is part of a strategy to pressure the EU into accepting that any permanent trade deal will not in any way leave the U.K. with a sort of associate membership status. Only once the EU drops its negotiating aim of keeping the U.K. aligned, will it be possible for a deal to be reached.

Just to check I understand what you’re saying - the UK isn’t breaking a treaty, it’s only threatening to break a treaty if it doesn’t get what it wants?

What happens if it doesn’t get what it wants?

Chris 07-09-2020 12:42

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048910)
That’s not how treaties work, unless it’s explicitly stated as such in the treaty (and it isn’t).

---------- Post added at 12:36 ---------- Previous post was at 12:32 ----------

Just to check I understand what you’re saying - the UK isn’t breaking a treaty, it’s only threatening to break a treaty if it doesn’t get what it wants?

What happens if it doesn’t get what it wants?

Then it’s either bluffing, or it breaks a treaty. Either way, that’s not what they’re doing right now.

In fact, el gov is trying to clarify things this morning (apparently the weekend press was a leak) - they claim they’re trying to close a legal loophole that would exist in the event of No Deal, as the joint U.K./EU supervisory committee that seeks to ensure the WA is adhered to, would automatically cease to exist in those circumstances.

OLD BOY 07-09-2020 12:57

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36048904)
The trade deal assumptions were written in the Political Declaration which we promptly shredded after the election

The transitional arrangements, as set out in the documentation, were agreed on the basis that both sides would agree to a free trade agreement at the end of the negotiations.

The fact that the EU doesn't even recognise that we will be an independent country in January speaks volumes, and so why you are standing up for those tyrants I really don't know.

The fact remains, that if the EU recognises that we will not be part of their gang from January, we will have a trade deal and the treaty you are so concerned about will still be in tact.

nomadking 07-09-2020 13:40

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048910)
That’s not how treaties work, unless it’s explicitly stated as such in the treaty (and it isn’t).

---------- Post added at 12:36 ---------- Previous post was at 12:32 ----------

Just to check I understand what you’re saying - the UK isn’t breaking a treaty, it’s only threatening to break a treaty if it doesn’t get what it wants?

What happens if it doesn’t get what it wants?

Isn't stated in the treaty? Where did you get that nonsense from?:rolleyes:

Hugh 07-09-2020 14:04

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36048917)
The transitional arrangements, as set out in the documentation, were agreed on the basis that both sides would agree to a free trade agreement at the end of the negotiations.

The fact that the EU doesn't even recognise that we will be an independent country in January speaks volumes, and so why you are standing up for those tyrants I really don't know.

The fact remains, that if the EU recognises that we will not be part of their gang from January, we will have a trade deal and the treaty you are so concerned about will still be in tact.

Repeating it doesn’t make it so - can you highlight which part of the WA supports your proposition, please?

From the EU Commission

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1599483764

nomadking 07-09-2020 14:12

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
1) It's a general principle with International Treaties that "good faith" has to be adhered to.
2) Article 50 of the EU treaty allowing states to leave the EU also stipulates "good faith".
3) The Brexit treaty stipulates "good faith" in Article 5.

Link

Quote:

Good faith

45.Article 5 of the Withdrawal Agreement states that the UK and EU will, “in full mutual respect and good faith, assist each other in carrying out tasks which flow from this Agreement”. It imposes an obligation on the parties to “take all appropriate measures, whether general or particular, to ensure fulfilment of the obligations arising from this agreement and shall refrain from any measures which could jeopardise the attainment of the objectives of this Agreement”.
46.Should any disputes arise between the parties to the Agreement, they will fall to be determined against the background of this provision. The Government’s December 2018 paper The Legal Position on the Withdrawal Agreement notes that “the principle of good faith is a rule of customary international law, as has been recognised by the CJEU and the International Court of Justice
Link

Quote:

On Monday 10 December 2018, the Court of Justice of the European Union held in Case C-621/18 Wightman & Others that Article 50 TEU can be revoked unilaterally by the United Kingdom, without any agreement required from the other 27 Member States.

If the EU considers fish in foreign waters to do with as they please, then that knocks out all current EU fishing agreements with non-EU countries, on the basis that the EU isn't following those agreements in "good faith".:D

1andrew1 07-09-2020 14:43

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36048932)
If the EU considers fish in foreign waters to do with as they please, then that knocks out all current EU fishing agreements with non-EU countries, on the basis that the EU isn't following those agreements in "good faith".:D

It doesn't so that's sadly more irrelevance.

nomadking 07-09-2020 14:50

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048934)
It doesn't so that's sadly more irrelevance.

If the EU goes into a fishing agreement with another country on the basis they are going to respect the rights of that country over the fish, they then can't say "It may be your waters, but it's not your fish". There is no longer "good faith" that the EU will follow the agreement.
You can't in "good faith" come to an agreement over rights you don't consider exist in the first place.

jonbxx 07-09-2020 14:57

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36048917)
The transitional arrangements, as set out in the documentation, were agreed on the basis that both sides would agree to a free trade agreement at the end of the negotiations.

Only in the political declaration. The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't stipulate any deal needing to be in place after the Transition Period, only the continuation of the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol (protecting the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, another international agreement)

The current Government voted for this

1andrew1 07-09-2020 15:13

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36048935)
If the EU goes into a fishing agreement with another country on the basis they are going to respect the rights of that country over the fish, they then can't say "It may be your waters, but it's not your fish". There is no longer "good faith" that the EU will follow the agreement.
You can't in "good faith" come to an agreement over rights you don't consider exist in the first place.

This is actually what the term means ĺhttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_faith_(law)

---------- Post added at 15:13 ---------- Previous post was at 15:08 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048898)
Exactly.

And Covid has put the EU and the UK into the GDP doldrums and there is no sign that having a trade deal with the EU right now would lead to any better a long term outcome since everything is stagnant. So we rebuild in competition with the EU, which we always were anyway.


With integrated global supply chains, you can't compete in sectors like car manufacturing with just a market of 64m. Let's not go back to the government picking and subsidising winners as Cummings and Corbyn like. Instead, let's agree to a level playing field with the EU and kick socialism into touch.

OLD BOY 07-09-2020 16:00

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048929)
Repeating it doesn’t make it so - can you highlight which part of the WA supports your proposition, please?

From the EU Commission

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1599483764

Well, if they give us a free trade deal, we'll keep the treaty.

The political declaration stated clearly that both sides wanted a free trade deal. So where is it?

No deal, no treaty. No cake and eat it, as they say.

And for good measure, ze clock eez ticking.

---------- Post added at 16:00 ---------- Previous post was at 15:52 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048937)
With integrated global supply chains, you can't compete in sectors like car manufacturing with just a market of 64m. Let's not go back to the government picking and subsidising winners as Cummings and Corbyn like. Instead, let's agree to a level playing field with the EU and kick socialism into touch.

Er, let's not!

jonbxx 07-09-2020 16:16

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36048941)
Well, if they give us a free trade deal, we'll keep the treaty.

The political declaration stated clearly that both sides wanted a free trade deal. So where is it?

No deal, no treaty. No cake and eat it, as they say.

And for good measure, ze clock eez ticking.

---------- Post added at 16:00 ---------- Previous post was at 15:52 ----------



Er, let's not!

I believe this paragraph (paragraph 17 of the political declaration is a major sticking point;

Quote:

Given the Union and the United Kingdom's geographic proximity and economic
interdependence, the future relationship must ensure open and fair competition,
encompassing robust commitments to ensure a level playing field. The precise nature of
commitments should be commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship
and the economic connectedness of the Parties.
This basically says no level playing field, no deal

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 16:50

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
So no deal it is. Much better than a bad deal that ties our hands behind our backs.

papa smurf 07-09-2020 17:00

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048945)
So no deal it is. Much better than a bad deal that ties our hands behind our backs.

Gets my vote :tu:

OLD BOY 07-09-2020 17:25

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048945)
So no deal it is. Much better than a bad deal that ties our hands behind our backs.

Agreed. What is the point of gaining our own sovereignty and freedom to trade how we want, only to throw away those freedoms immediately and be enslaved forever to the EU, with no say in the legislation they introduce?

How does that not sound like a bad deal to anyone on this forum?

Hugh 07-09-2020 18:41

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Welll, when you put it so even-handedly and unemotionally, using such concise and logical reasoning, how can anyone disagree?

OLD BOY 07-09-2020 18:52

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048960)
Welll, when you put it so even-handedly and unemotionally, using such concise and logical reasoning, how can anyone disagree?

Sounds simple enough to me. Brexit is Brexit. What's not to understand?

1andrew1 07-09-2020 18:56

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048945)
So no deal it is. Much better than a bad deal that ties our hands behind our backs.

No level playing field lets socialism in through the front door. You've let Margaret Thatcher's legacy and British business down by endorsing such views.

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 19:07

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36048960)
Welll, when you put it so even-handedly and unemotionally, using such concise and logical reasoning, how can anyone disagree?

Your sarcasm adds nothing to the debate.

OB and I have correctly analysed the situation and just because you are a Remainer who doesn't like what's happening, you should show more respect.



---------- Post added at 19:07 ---------- Previous post was at 19:04 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048964)
No level playing field lets socialism in through the front door. You've let Margaret Thatcher's legacy and British business down by endorsing such views.

That's a stretch, Andrew.

You well know that the EU wants to tie our hands - to punish us as well. We cannot agree to that. Remember, we have left the EU.

As a Brit, you should be looking forward as to how we can make the best from this, especially as we must build away from Covid at the same time as the EU but without having to consult another 27 countries.



jonbxx 07-09-2020 19:07

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
So if the government agreed to paragraph 17 of the political declaration and signed off on it but had no intention of following through, does the 'good faith' test apply on our side?

Surely it would be simpler to simply say 'see ya' and walk off into the sunset and not pay Sir David Frost et al travel expenses? The fact that the government is negotiating suggest, despite what Boris Johnson says, that they do want a deal

1andrew1 07-09-2020 19:07

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048966)
Your sarcasm adds nothing to the debate.

OB and I have correctly analysed the situation and just because you are a Remainer who doesn't like what's happening, you should show more respect.


I'm not sure we're allowed to mark our own tests on this forum. For better or worse, we mark one another's

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 19:42

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36048968)
So if the government agreed to paragraph 17 of the political declaration and signed off on it but had no intention of following through, does the 'good faith' test apply on our side?

Surely it would be simpler to simply say 'see ya' and walk off into the sunset and not pay Sir David Frost et al travel expenses? The fact that the government is negotiating suggest, despite what Boris Johnson says, that they do want a deal

Some merit in what you say.

Still, we shouldn't give in to EU bullying.



---------- Post added at 19:42 ---------- Previous post was at 19:40 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048969)
I'm not sure we're allowed to mark our own tests on this forum. For better or worse, we mark one another's

For worse in the case of Remainers.

Anyway, I was marking Hugh who specialises in sarcasm without contributing much to the debate itself.

Damien 07-09-2020 21:18

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
I said it before that the nature of how politics is in this country and with what was promised means the U.K Government isn't in a position to make concessions. It was true a year ago and it's in true today. Everything has been ramped up to such a level than any concession towards the EU would be portrayed as a betrayal.

Boris Johnson and the Government have tried for an EU deal entirely on our terms and it isn't working.

People will cheer this round but the same problem with crop up with any other trade deal.

1andrew1 07-09-2020 21:39

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36048983)
I said it before that the nature of how politics is in this country and with what was promised means the U.K Government isn't in a position to make concessions. It was true a year ago and it's in true today. Everything has been ramped up to such a level than any concession towards the EU would be portrayed as a betrayal.

Boris Johnson and the Government have tried for an EU deal entirely on our terms and it isn't working.

People will cheer this round but the same problem with crop up with any other trade deal.

At the end of the day, we need a close trade deal with the EU. If BoJo's government won't make it then Sunak's or Sir Keir's will. The forces of geoeconomics can't be overcome by empty slogans.

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 21:56

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048985)
Agreed. At the end of the day, we need a close trade deal with the EU. If BoJo's government won't make it then Sunak's or Sir Keir's will. The forces of geoeconomics can't be overcome by empty slogans.

We would like a reasonable trade deal with the EU, not one on their unreasonable terms. The Canadian model will do.

But the Guvmin has calculated that we don't need a trade deal with the EU. Essentially, it's the Guvmin's judgement on "need" that you are challenging.

1andrew1 07-09-2020 22:11

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048986)
We would like a reasonable trade deal with the EU, not one on their unreasonable terms. The Canadian model will do.

But the Guvmin has calculated that we don't need a trade deal with the EU. Essentially, it's the Guvmin's judgement on "need" that you are challenging.

The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

---------- Post added at 22:11 ---------- Previous post was at 22:06 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048974)


Anyway, I was marking Hugh who specialises in sarcasm without contributing much to the debate itself.

"Old Boy and I have correctly analysed..." is what I meant by self-marking.

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 22:24

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048989)
The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

---------- Post added at 22:11 ---------- Previous post was at 22:06 ----------


"Old Boy and I have correctly analysed..." is what I meant by self-marking.

Yes - I know. The other point I made needed emphasising.

1andrew1 07-09-2020 22:34

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048989)
The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

To add - I hope that this analysis is wrong. I hope BoJo does what he did before, namely concede at the last minute. He can concede on a level playing field and be seen to win on fishing, thus allowing the Express to declare victory. Farage will continue to moan, naturally, but he has carved a niche career out of doing so.

Sephiroth 07-09-2020 23:04

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048992)
To add - I hope that this analysis is wrong. I hope BoJo does what he did before, namely concede at the last minute. He can concede on a level playing field and be seen to win on fishing, thus allowing the Express to declare victory. Farage will continue to moan, naturally, but he has carved a niche career out of doing so.

This is what's wrong with you and your argument.

You are effectively saying that Boris should concede that EU law can apply to the UK. Ignoring NI for the moment (special case), you must be insane to grant such power to a third country, union or whatever you want to call the EU.

Chris 07-09-2020 23:22

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Yeah ... I think anyone who thinks the level playing field will be conceded to any significant degree really hasn’t been paying attention. Dynamic Alignment, which is what the EU would like the LPF to mean, amounts to EU directive by fax; single market rules made in Brussels, sent to London to be automatically applied to our statute book as the price of our access to their single market. This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, we take rules, without having influenced their drafting; second, they apply to domestic trade, not just to stuff exported to the EU (as is the case now); third they dent our ability to negotiate independently with third parties for mutual access to our markets; fourth, the EU has form for defining very broadly what single market regulation looks like. It’s a recipe for continued EU mission creep right across our statute book.

Dynamic alignment neutralises many of the main advantages of us leaving the EU, while scoring the EU the major win of imposing rules on us that could never have been drafted in the same way had we been in the room.

I have no problem with the EU being as bureaucratic, centralising and absurd as it likes with its own rules in its own market place. I do have a problem with us continuing to suffer for it.

1andrew1 07-09-2020 23:53

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36048993)
This is what's wrong with you and your argument.

You are effectively saying that Boris should concede that EU law can apply to the UK. Ignoring NI for the moment (special case), you must be insane to grant such power to a third country, union or whatever you want to call the EU.

I'm saying here that the space for a deal is on agreeing to a level playing field. This is my optimistic scenario as we can't fight geoeconomics so will have to do something similar anyway at some stage so why worsen our suffering economy? The pessimistic scenario is as outlined by Damien with Boris too afraid to take on the hardine Brexiters in his party.

1andrew1 08-09-2020 07:33

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36048994)
Yeah ... I think anyone who thinks the level playing field will be conceded to any significant degree really hasn’t been paying attention. Dynamic Alignment, which is what the EU would like the LPF to mean, amounts to EU directive by fax; single market rules made in Brussels, sent to London to be automatically applied to our statute book as the price of our access to their single market. This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, we take rules, without having influenced their drafting; second, they apply to domestic trade, not just to stuff exported to the EU (as is the case now); third they dent our ability to negotiate independently with third parties for mutual access to our markets; fourth, the EU has form for defining very broadly what single market regulation looks like. It’s a recipe for continued EU mission creep right across our statute book.

Dynamic alignment neutralises many of the main advantages of us leaving the EU, while scoring the EU the major win of imposing rules on us that could never have been drafted in the same way had we been in the room.

I have no problem with the EU being as bureaucratic, centralising and absurd as it likes with its own rules in its own market place. I do have a problem with us continuing to suffer for it.

Absolutely get the issues although only Pritti Patel's calculator would calculate a 5%-10% uplift in GDP as suffering for it. ;)

I don't think it's impossible for BoJo to agree to a deal along the level-playing-field lines at the last minute. He stitched up the DUP over the border in the Irish Sea so he had form here.
How well he would honour such an agreement is open to question but he would probably enjoy stirring up the benchbenchers in the event of later confrontations with the EU.

It's the subsequent political impact of no deal outside the Conservative Party that would encourage a climbdown on BoJo's part.

He knows the chaos and negative economic impact especially in the Red Wall seats and the country is poorly prepared for such an eventuality according to the logistics and transport sector. It would hand Sturgeon a cherished majority and a successful vote for independence. Sir Keir would grill a confused BoJo every Wednesday before wearied, BoJo would hand the keys for No 10 to Sunak who would send a chastened Frost back to Brussels to sort out a deal aligning us more closely to the EU. From a position of weakness and even smaller population given Scotland's likely independence in the event of no deal.

Carth 08-09-2020 08:54

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36049003)
Absolutely get the issues although only Pritti Patel's calculator would calculate a 5%-10% uplift in GDP as suffering for it. ;)

I don't think it's impossible for BoJo to agree to a deal along the level-playing-field lines at the last minute. He stitched up the DUP over the border in the Irish Sea so he had form here.
How well he would honour such an agreement is open to question but he would probably enjoy stirring up the benchbenchers in the event of later confrontations with the EU.

It's the subsequent political impact of no deal outside the Conservative Party that would encourage a climbdown on BoJo's part.

He knows the chaos and negative economic impact especially in the Red Wall seats and the country is poorly prepared for such an eventuality according to the logistics and transport sector. It would hand Sturgeon a cherished majority and a successful vote for independence. Sir Keir would grill a confused BoJo every Wednesday before wearied, BoJo would hand the keys for No 10 to Sunak who would send a chastened Frost back to Brussels to sort out a deal aligning us more closely to the EU. From a position of weakness and even smaller population given Scotland's likely independence in the event of no deal.

No point using anyone using a calculator when simple guesswork is involved.

Boris conceding to the EU will cause more grief than you can imagine . . Farage is waiting in the wings to lead his army once again if the need arises ;)

Keir is all talk with no substance, and Sunak is too clever to get himself the keys to No 10 until after the dust has settled.

Scotlands likely independence has the same chance as trains running on time.

OLD BOY 08-09-2020 09:10

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36048983)
I said it before that the nature of how politics is in this country and with what was promised means the U.K Government isn't in a position to make concessions. It was true a year ago and it's in true today. Everything has been ramped up to such a level than any concession towards the EU would be portrayed as a betrayal.

Boris Johnson and the Government have tried for an EU deal entirely on our terms and it isn't working.

People will cheer this round but the same problem with crop up with any other trade deal.

Other trade deals will not carry an expectation that we sign up to the laws of their countries and give up our territorial waters!

Several trade deals are nearing completion, including Australia and Japan. No such problems with them.

---------- Post added at 09:02 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048989)
The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

Wrong again. It's about honouring the result of the EU referendum and carrying out the clear mandate of the government.

---------- Post added at 09:04 ---------- Previous post was at 09:02 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048992)
To add - I hope that this analysis is wrong. I hope BoJo does what he did before, namely concede at the last minute. He can concede on a level playing field and be seen to win on fishing, thus allowing the Express to declare victory. Farage will continue to moan, naturally, but he has carved a niche career out of doing so.

A level playing field equates to taking EU laws, it seems. That ain't going to happen.

---------- Post added at 09:10 ---------- Previous post was at 09:04 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36048998)
I'm saying here that the space for a deal is on agreeing to a level playing field. This is my optimistic scenario as we can't fight geoeconomics so will have to do something similar anyway at some stage so why worsen our suffering economy? The pessimistic scenario is as outlined by Damien with Boris too afraid to take on the hardine Brexiters in his party.

But it's not a basis for a deal! This puts us in a worse place than being part of the EU!! Why can you not see that?

We will not be a slave to the EU, and if that's what you believe, you are sadly mistaken. The British people will not stand for that.

You are, it seems, obsessed with geoeconomics, which is not as relevant as it used to be. The EU is convenient as it is close, but it is not the be all and end all.

Sorry, Andrew, but your scenario is not optimistic at all - it is defeatist.

1andrew1 08-09-2020 09:21

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36049011)
No point using anyone using a calculator when simple guesswork is involved.

Boris conceding to the EU will cause more grief than you can imagine . . Farage is waiting in the wings to lead his army once again if the need arises ;)

Keir is all talk with no substance, and Sunak is too clever to get himself the keys to No 10 until after the dust has settled.

Scotlands likely independence has the same chance as trains running on time.

The trains are currently running on time, but no one's on them. I can't see much changing to alter Scots' views on independence.
A fair summary for BoJo is he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. But in Sunak'a case, you cannot chose when you inherit
Sir Keir is not in power but is a substantive opposition leader with an enviable track record of fighting criminals and terrorists. Thereby making him a hard character to criticise if you position yourself as a party of law and order.

Damien 08-09-2020 10:49

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Head Goverment Lawyer has resigned over the 'rowing back' of the NI agreement: https://www.ft.com/content/6186bf1c-...3-4eea763e1b94

papa smurf 08-09-2020 11:18

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36049042)
Head Goverment Lawyer has resigned over the 'rowing back' of the NI agreement: https://www.ft.com/content/6186bf1c-...3-4eea763e1b94

If your lawyer is working for the other side,it's best to get rid.


None paywall version https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-over-22647171

1andrew1 08-09-2020 11:24

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36049042)
Head Goverment Lawyer has resigned over the 'rowing back' of the NI agreement: https://www.ft.com/content/6186bf1c-...3-4eea763e1b94

Wow! That's a damning inditement of the current government isn't it?

Chris 08-09-2020 11:25

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
A non-paywall link would be nice.

nomadking 08-09-2020 11:26

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
What "rowing back"?:rolleyes:
Link

Quote:

The text of the bill has yet to be published, so we cannot say for definite what will be included in its wording.
But Downing Street said one thing it would do is allow ministers to unilaterally decide what particular goods were "at risk" of entering the EU when passing between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and therefore subject to EU tariffs.
The law would also give ministers the powers to scrap export declarations on goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain and would make it clear that EU state aid requirements - where governments give financial support to homegrown businesses - would only apply in Northern Ireland.
But the government insists the bill only introduces "limited and reasonable steps" to "remove ambiguity" - not "overriding" the withdrawal agreement, as government sources had suggested on Sunday.

Sephiroth 08-09-2020 11:27

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36049049)
Wow! That's a damning inditement of the current government isn't it?

Trust you to make that your primary reaction. Have you properly analysed what the Guvmin is intending and the contingency that makes this necessary?

How about getting behind this country and help with your attitude in making Brexit a success?

1andrew1 08-09-2020 12:30

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
See also http://news.sky.com/story/jonathan-j...s-say-12066488

papa smurf 08-09-2020 12:42

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36049053)
Trust you to make that your primary reaction. Have you properly analysed what the Guvmin is intending and the contingency that makes this necessary?

How about getting behind this country and help with your attitude in making Brexit a success?

Probably get 1 million to 1 odds on that happening at the bookies;)

1andrew1 08-09-2020 12:55

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36049053)
Trust you to make that your primary reaction. Have you properly analysed what the Guvmin is intending and the contingency that makes this necessary?

How about getting behind this country and help with your attitude in making Brexit a success?

Integrity may be just another unfashionable British value to some in government but it's not to Jonathan Jones. I suggest you join me and get behind this great country of ours by applauding his true upholding of British values.

Chris 08-09-2020 13:03

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36049069)
Integrity may be just another unfashionable British value to some in government but it's not to Jonathan Jones. I suggest you join me and get behind this great country of ours by applauding his true upholding of British values.

Seeing as you're willing to spin this so shamelessly, allow me to present a view from the opposite extreme:

https://order-order.com/2020/09/08/c...aier-clearout/

Quote:

Jonathan Jones, head of the Government Legal Department, has become the sixth senior Whitehall official to depart this year. The FT is reporting that Jones’s departure is over the Government’s hardline Brexit stance. Attempting to get answers, one Government source simply tells Guido “he’s a remainer”. He wasn’t the first and won’t be the last…

nomadking 08-09-2020 13:03

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36049069)
Integrity may be just another unfashionable British value to some in government but it's not to Jonathan Jones. I suggest you join me and get behind this great country of ours by applauding his true upholding of British values.

Who says integrity has anything to do with it?
Certain things in relation to NI have to be specified and set down before the end of the transition period. Eg Which goods from GB into NI are to be liable for customs duties. No getting away from that. That is in the revised NI protocol.
Little point in legislating the detail of the "backstop", until it's become unavoidable.

1andrew1 08-09-2020 13:13

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36049070)
Seeing as you're willing to spin this so shamelessly, allow me to present a view from the opposite extreme:

https://order-order.com/2020/09/08/c...aier-clearout/

Order Order. From the mouth of Dominic Cummings. Sigh.

Chris 08-09-2020 13:18

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36049072)
Order Order. Your sources are not normally this weak. Sigh.

That would be an ad hominem attack on the source of the report rather than on its content ;)

Aside from the fact that I did place the quote at the opposite extreme to your bizarre attempt to paint Jones’ resignation as a great act of patriotism, what do you say to the claim that Guido’s source in government suggests that Jones is actually just another arch remainer in the upper echelons of the civil service that has finally realised the game is up?

papa smurf 08-09-2020 13:40

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36049073)
That would be an ad hominem attack on the source of the report rather than on its content ;)

Aside from the fact that I did place the quote at the opposite extreme to your bizarre attempt to paint Jones’ resignation as a great act of patriotism, what do you say to the claim that Guido’s source in government suggests that Jones is actually just another arch remainer in the upper echelons of the civil service that has finally realised the game is up?

something containing the words door arse way out:)

1andrew1 08-09-2020 13:42

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36049073)
That would be an ad hominem attack on the source of the report rather than on its content ;)

Aside from the fact that I did place the quote at the opposite extreme to your bizarre attempt to paint Jones’ resignation as a great act of patriotism, what do you say to the claim that Guido’s source in government suggests that Jones is actually just another arch remainer in the upper echelons of the civil service that has finally realised the game is up?

Not really such a bizarre comment of mine when the context was a response to Seph.
Civil servants pride themselves on being apolitical and have worked hard to deliver Brexit, regardlessof their feelings one way or the other. Those I've met have actually been largely pro Brexit due to the career opportunities it's opened up.
Slurring a senior civil servant as a Remainer because he takes a stand on being asked to undermine or potentially break an international treaty is lazy, desperate or probably both.
Let's see how this plays out. It's not a good omen.

nomadking 08-09-2020 13:51

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
A remainer endorsing him, doesn't exactly contradict things.:rolleyes:
Link

Quote:

In response to Sir Jonathan's resignation, the shadow attorney general, Lord Falconer, said he was "an impressive lawyer and a loyal civil servant".
"If he can't stay in public service, there must be something very rotten about this government. This resignation indicates that senior government lawyers think that the government is about to break the law."
How else is the Government meant to legislate on this?

Quote:

Before the end of the transition period, the Joint Committee shall by decision establish the conditions under which processing is to be considered not to fall within point (a) of the first subparagraph, taking into account in particular the nature, scale and result of the processing.
Before the end of the transition period, the Joint Committee shall by decision establish the criteria for considering that a good brought into Northern Ireland from outside the Union is not at risk of subsequently being moved into the Union. The Joint Committee shall take into consideration, inter alia:
With no alternative trade deal on the horizon, that has to now be legislated for.

Hugh 08-09-2020 14:08

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54073836
Quote:

Northern Ireland Secretary admits new bill will 'break international law'

A government minister has said a new bill to amend the UK's Brexit deal with the EU will "break international law".

Concerns had been raised about legislation being brought forward which could change parts of the withdrawal agreement, negotiated last year.

Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis conceded it would go against the treaty in a "specific and limited way".

1andrew1 08-09-2020 14:12

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36049079)
A remainer endorsing him, doesn't exactly contradict things.:rolleyes:
Link

How else is the Government meant to legislate on this?

With no alternative trade deal on the horizon, that has to now be legislated for.

You would expect the opposition to put the boot in and it has.
I had previously thought this legislation was just a tidying up exercise to cover no-deal and had not commented at tbe time. This landmark resignation potentially casts a dark cloud over this.

nomadking 08-09-2020 14:13

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Claims of violence if the "peace process" isn't followed is breaking international law. There can be no "consent freely given" whilst there are threats. The backstop itself breaks the EU treaties, as any Transitional Agreement has to be temporary, not ongoing.


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