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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
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The 'prize' that the EU want ties both our hands and our whatsit behind our back. That is not acceptable. |
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The Wirecard fraud situation may work in our favour as it shows how the EU benefits from the City of London. But preying in aid to the City may not work. |
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I think it probably was the government that slipped up with their optimism on having our own app, although they were persuaded by their officers that their app was better than all the others. And some people wonder why Boris wants to shake up the Civil Service and the quangoes! But all this is just deflection on your part, Andrew. This thread is about Brexit, not Covid, and the constant mantra that we should extend the duration of these negotiations is negative, tiresome and in the end, pointless. Have you not clocked yet that the British public want all this to be over? Extending negotiations will just defer the inevitable, whatever that is - deal or no deal. ---------- Post added at 16:52 ---------- Previous post was at 16:47 ---------- Quote:
The British public wants us out of the EU, with or without a deal. I thought that was clear, even to you. My bad |
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If we leave with no deal this year, we start negotiations in 2022 from a position of weakness and also with no EU goodwill. You've clearly forgotten that Brexit doesn't end with no deal! That actually elongates the process as there will be lots of squabbling and a succession of smaller deals. You let the genie out of the bag in 2016 and it ain't going away. Negotiations with the EU are no part of British life for the forseeable future. |
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All you can see is this big monster EU presence and poor little Britain cowering in the corner. You may be in for a surprise. |
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The ones who were saying the App would work were the outsourced contractors and the Ministers - everyone else was saying "it won't work". Was it the Civil Servants fault when Boris didn't deliver the “clear plan we have prepared to give every older person the dignity and security they deserve” in July 2019, on the steps of Downing Street? Was it the Civil Servants' fault when Boris told NI businesses that "There will be no forms, no checks, no barriers of any kind. You will have unfettered access.”, when in fact they will be checks and forms to fill in? ---------- Post added at 17:06 ---------- Previous post was at 17:05 ---------- Quote:
They get paid the big bucks, they have to own the problems, not blamestorm. |
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The penny is finally start to drop with some of the mainstream Brexit press like the Daily Mail and The Sun. I hope it drops with you before too long. |
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I was watching the news, and they asked Tony B about the governments handling of the Covid-19, I fell of my sofa when he did slag them off, in fact he almost praised them.
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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
EU insider lifts lid on how Barnier's negotiating camp now racked with defeatist pessimism
The growing sense of despondency within Michel Barnier's team is fuelled by fears of a bitter no deal Brexit with EU negotiators braced for a vicious "blame game" over who is responsible for the stalemate. Last week's tense talks which ended in stalemate did nothing to lift flagging spirits in Brussels. Ooh le heck,le reality ezz not what they thought eet was.;) https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...er-david-frost |
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
The two recurring issues are fishing rights and a level playing field.
If a suitable deal on fishing des not happen, a free trade deal won't happen. And no deal will result in French fishermen blocking Calais and no market for our fish. If a deal is reached, expect cash (hidden to keep the Breixters happy) to pension off some of the French fishing fleet over time and a gradual withdrawal from British waters. The EU has free trading deals with all the main trading blocs and countries though its recent one with the US seems quite limited. Such deals confer on the signatories improvements to the deals if the EU negotiates deals with other countries. So the EU is not going to start removing its level playing field requirement with the UK as it will open the floodgates globally to subsidised goods being dumped in the single market. The EU has made its red lines in these areas quite clear. Let's remind ourselves of the cards held. The UK has trade deals with South Korea, Switzerland and Liechenstein. The EU has its own market of 450m people plus trade deals with most blocs and countries in the world including Japan and Canada. And and its team negotiating with NZ was praised whilst the UK's was called "not match fit". Anyone still think we hold all the cards? Thought not! |
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But Andrew, you said in an earlier post that 'there are plenty of non UK fish in the sea', so why do they desperately need our fish?
Can't wait for the French to start blockading ports again, years since we've seen so much fun. :D and do you really think that if a 'secret' deal was struck by the UK to pension off the French fishing fleet, it would stay out of the news? |
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You forgot this bit from the article, explains the blame game will be in the UK team, not the EU...
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I'll try to be clearer next time... :D |
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The EU buy and eat fish caught in UK waters. How are they going to make up any shortfall? The EU fishing quotas will have been reduced because of the reduction of the potential fishing area, so increasing fishing in non-UK waters isn't an option.
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* How are they going to make up any shortfall? *
Well they could go cap in hand to Norway or Iceland and hope to persuade them to increase the EU quota allowed ;) |
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Hamster, elderberries, etc., etc.. :D |
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Looks like the Government has acknowledged its negotiating team is indeed not "match fit" and is desperately bringing some business expertise on board.
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Bankers & Accountants . . . just what we need to screw things up again :rolleyes:
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Excellent that the UK is telling the EU to do one.
It's very clear to all that we cannot be the EU's vassal post-Brexit. They still accuse us of wanting our cake to eat whilst demanding that they have our fish to eat on their terms. Never mind the miniscule economic impact over the fisheries that the Remainers try to shove in our faces. Leaving the EU means we plough an independent furrow and develop accordingly. Coronavirus has given us an opportunity because the EU is an arguing institution ravaged by the disease. They have to recover their disparate economies whereas we have to just grow ourselves, by our rules (of which they are scared stiff). Sod 'em (and Sturgeon). |
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Problem is, the UK are breaking a signed treaty, at the time we want to be signing new treaties with lots of countries - why should any country trust us to uphold the terms of a treaty, when we are showing we won’t?
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"reserves the right" is not the same as "is going to". What does the UN Convention on Law of the Seas, say about who controls fishing in UK waters?
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The bill is worded so as to allow for a course of action, it does not implement that course of action. In circumstances such as these, the two are worlds apart. As drafted, it amounts to a threat, and taken in concert with other comments made over the weekend (no doubt all perfectly coordinated) is part of a strategy to pressure the EU into accepting that any permanent trade deal will not in any way leave the U.K. with a sort of associate membership status. Only once the EU drops its negotiating aim of keeping the U.K. aligned, will it be possible for a deal to be reached. |
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If there is no deal, the EU has deals with most of the world, its own internal market of 450m and has the infrastructure and people in place to cope. Embarrassingly as a Brit, we have neither. |
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What you should be saying, as a Brit, is that a deal with the EU would be better than no deal, but not at any price and certainly not a deal that makes us a vassal state to the EU. You seem still to be fighting the referendum battle. |
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Here's a little tip for those who keep blasting the UK over its Brexit stance, and feel the UK is doomed and the EU is still the best place to live & work . . .
. . there are a few places on the SE coast that have a growing collection of dinghies. I'm sure that if you fully explain your situation, they'll let you have one with which to escape to the nearest EU coast . . . they'll probably give you the fuel required too :p: hope this helps ;) |
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Oh wait, I forgot that only applies to remoaners. |
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Who wants their cake and eat it now? |
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Don't give us that old chestnut about 'no deal' being a disaster. Most trade around the world is on WTO terms. There are other places other than the EU where we can forge deals more suited to our requirements than was possible in the EU. Some are already virtually there, ready to be implemented in 2021. |
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And Covid has put the EU and the UK into the GDP doldrums and there is no sign that having a trade deal with the EU right now would lead to any better a long term outcome since everything is stagnant. So we rebuild in competition with the EU, which we always were anyway. |
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Also, why resort to the straw man if you believe in your arguments? I've not said WTO terms will be a disaster but they will be very damaging. It's a Leaver Professor, Patrick Minford, who has said Brexit will lead to the end of UK manufacturing. The trade deals you refer to replicate a couple that we already enjoy at the moment. Losing deals with the US, Canada and the EU will not advance our economy. |
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My understanding is that the Guvmin's planned legislation is intended to allow the UK to alter its implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement in the event of a no deal scenario.
No doubt the legal analysis by pundits will emerge, but my take on this is that the WA was in part founded on the assumption that a trade deal would follow the transition period and should that not happen, then the UK would not be tied to certain parts of the WA. What really tickles me here is the distraction this will cause within the higher EU echelons. It's a master stroke by the Guvmin. Remainers, like Hugh, will/have bleat/ed that if we break a treaty, who else will trust us with a trade deal. That is extremely naive; the world is watching the drama of the Brexit negotiations and fully understand that the EU is trying to eat the UK's cake whilst accusing the UK of the reverse. Diplomacy will also smooth things out with our other partners. The outrage that the Remainers will display will also be amusing and provide much entertainment. |
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Good link from a Nissan insider which dispels many remainer and leaver myths on the situation for the company.
https://www.quora.com/Why-would-Niss...58e3&srid=3fST |
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What happens if it doesn’t get what it wants? |
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In fact, el gov is trying to clarify things this morning (apparently the weekend press was a leak) - they claim they’re trying to close a legal loophole that would exist in the event of No Deal, as the joint U.K./EU supervisory committee that seeks to ensure the WA is adhered to, would automatically cease to exist in those circumstances. |
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The fact that the EU doesn't even recognise that we will be an independent country in January speaks volumes, and so why you are standing up for those tyrants I really don't know. The fact remains, that if the EU recognises that we will not be part of their gang from January, we will have a trade deal and the treaty you are so concerned about will still be in tact. |
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From the EU Commission https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1599483764 |
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1) It's a general principle with International Treaties that "good faith" has to be adhered to.
2) Article 50 of the EU treaty allowing states to leave the EU also stipulates "good faith". 3) The Brexit treaty stipulates "good faith" in Article 5. Link Quote:
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If the EU considers fish in foreign waters to do with as they please, then that knocks out all current EU fishing agreements with non-EU countries, on the basis that the EU isn't following those agreements in "good faith".:D |
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You can't in "good faith" come to an agreement over rights you don't consider exist in the first place. |
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The current Government voted for this |
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The political declaration stated clearly that both sides wanted a free trade deal. So where is it? No deal, no treaty. No cake and eat it, as they say. And for good measure, ze clock eez ticking. ---------- Post added at 16:00 ---------- Previous post was at 15:52 ---------- Quote:
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So no deal it is. Much better than a bad deal that ties our hands behind our backs.
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How does that not sound like a bad deal to anyone on this forum? |
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Welll, when you put it so even-handedly and unemotionally, using such concise and logical reasoning, how can anyone disagree?
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OB and I have correctly analysed the situation and just because you are a Remainer who doesn't like what's happening, you should show more respect. ---------- Post added at 19:07 ---------- Previous post was at 19:04 ---------- Quote:
You well know that the EU wants to tie our hands - to punish us as well. We cannot agree to that. Remember, we have left the EU. As a Brit, you should be looking forward as to how we can make the best from this, especially as we must build away from Covid at the same time as the EU but without having to consult another 27 countries. |
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So if the government agreed to paragraph 17 of the political declaration and signed off on it but had no intention of following through, does the 'good faith' test apply on our side?
Surely it would be simpler to simply say 'see ya' and walk off into the sunset and not pay Sir David Frost et al travel expenses? The fact that the government is negotiating suggest, despite what Boris Johnson says, that they do want a deal |
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Still, we shouldn't give in to EU bullying. ---------- Post added at 19:42 ---------- Previous post was at 19:40 ---------- Quote:
Anyway, I was marking Hugh who specialises in sarcasm without contributing much to the debate itself. |
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I said it before that the nature of how politics is in this country and with what was promised means the U.K Government isn't in a position to make concessions. It was true a year ago and it's in true today. Everything has been ramped up to such a level than any concession towards the EU would be portrayed as a betrayal.
Boris Johnson and the Government have tried for an EU deal entirely on our terms and it isn't working. People will cheer this round but the same problem with crop up with any other trade deal. |
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But the Guvmin has calculated that we don't need a trade deal with the EU. Essentially, it's the Guvmin's judgement on "need" that you are challenging. |
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Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly. ---------- Post added at 22:11 ---------- Previous post was at 22:06 ---------- Quote:
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You are effectively saying that Boris should concede that EU law can apply to the UK. Ignoring NI for the moment (special case), you must be insane to grant such power to a third country, union or whatever you want to call the EU. |
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Yeah ... I think anyone who thinks the level playing field will be conceded to any significant degree really hasn’t been paying attention. Dynamic Alignment, which is what the EU would like the LPF to mean, amounts to EU directive by fax; single market rules made in Brussels, sent to London to be automatically applied to our statute book as the price of our access to their single market. This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, we take rules, without having influenced their drafting; second, they apply to domestic trade, not just to stuff exported to the EU (as is the case now); third they dent our ability to negotiate independently with third parties for mutual access to our markets; fourth, the EU has form for defining very broadly what single market regulation looks like. It’s a recipe for continued EU mission creep right across our statute book.
Dynamic alignment neutralises many of the main advantages of us leaving the EU, while scoring the EU the major win of imposing rules on us that could never have been drafted in the same way had we been in the room. I have no problem with the EU being as bureaucratic, centralising and absurd as it likes with its own rules in its own market place. I do have a problem with us continuing to suffer for it. |
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I don't think it's impossible for BoJo to agree to a deal along the level-playing-field lines at the last minute. He stitched up the DUP over the border in the Irish Sea so he had form here. How well he would honour such an agreement is open to question but he would probably enjoy stirring up the benchbenchers in the event of later confrontations with the EU. It's the subsequent political impact of no deal outside the Conservative Party that would encourage a climbdown on BoJo's part. He knows the chaos and negative economic impact especially in the Red Wall seats and the country is poorly prepared for such an eventuality according to the logistics and transport sector. It would hand Sturgeon a cherished majority and a successful vote for independence. Sir Keir would grill a confused BoJo every Wednesday before wearied, BoJo would hand the keys for No 10 to Sunak who would send a chastened Frost back to Brussels to sort out a deal aligning us more closely to the EU. From a position of weakness and even smaller population given Scotland's likely independence in the event of no deal. |
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Boris conceding to the EU will cause more grief than you can imagine . . Farage is waiting in the wings to lead his army once again if the need arises ;) Keir is all talk with no substance, and Sunak is too clever to get himself the keys to No 10 until after the dust has settled. Scotlands likely independence has the same chance as trains running on time. |
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Several trade deals are nearing completion, including Australia and Japan. No such problems with them. ---------- Post added at 09:02 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ---------- Quote:
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We will not be a slave to the EU, and if that's what you believe, you are sadly mistaken. The British people will not stand for that. You are, it seems, obsessed with geoeconomics, which is not as relevant as it used to be. The EU is convenient as it is close, but it is not the be all and end all. Sorry, Andrew, but your scenario is not optimistic at all - it is defeatist. |
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A fair summary for BoJo is he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. But in Sunak'a case, you cannot chose when you inherit Sir Keir is not in power but is a substantive opposition leader with an enviable track record of fighting criminals and terrorists. Thereby making him a hard character to criticise if you position yourself as a party of law and order. |
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Head Goverment Lawyer has resigned over the 'rowing back' of the NI agreement: https://www.ft.com/content/6186bf1c-...3-4eea763e1b94
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None paywall version https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-over-22647171 |
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A non-paywall link would be nice.
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What "rowing back"?:rolleyes:
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How about getting behind this country and help with your attitude in making Brexit a success? |
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Certain things in relation to NI have to be specified and set down before the end of the transition period. Eg Which goods from GB into NI are to be liable for customs duties. No getting away from that. That is in the revised NI protocol. Little point in legislating the detail of the "backstop", until it's become unavoidable. |
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Aside from the fact that I did place the quote at the opposite extreme to your bizarre attempt to paint Jones’ resignation as a great act of patriotism, what do you say to the claim that Guido’s source in government suggests that Jones is actually just another arch remainer in the upper echelons of the civil service that has finally realised the game is up? |
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Civil servants pride themselves on being apolitical and have worked hard to deliver Brexit, regardlessof their feelings one way or the other. Those I've met have actually been largely pro Brexit due to the career opportunities it's opened up. Slurring a senior civil servant as a Remainer because he takes a stand on being asked to undermine or potentially break an international treaty is lazy, desperate or probably both. Let's see how this plays out. It's not a good omen. |
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A remainer endorsing him, doesn't exactly contradict things.:rolleyes:
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54073836
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I had previously thought this legislation was just a tidying up exercise to cover no-deal and had not commented at tbe time. This landmark resignation potentially casts a dark cloud over this. |
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Claims of violence if the "peace process" isn't followed is breaking international law. There can be no "consent freely given" whilst there are threats. The backstop itself breaks the EU treaties, as any Transitional Agreement has to be temporary, not ongoing.
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