Re: Brexit
 

If Theresa May wanted to and took her party along with her, I'm sure she could. But why would she, having said all the things she has said about it?

If that's the basis on which some MPs vote the deal down because they really believe anything other than a no-deal Brexit will take place, that would be a hell of a gamble!

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:40 ----------

I know they have said that, Dave, but can you really see us avoiding our legal obligations? However, we could make them fight for it by itemising it all and then having it all scrutinised and debated. The EU needs this money now, for the current spending round. Any delay would be very difficult for them.

Re: Brexit
 

So we do have Parliamentary Sovereignty after all then?

Re: Brexit
 

Agreed. Those voting against Brexit would never be forgiven. The electorate was given a say and the electorate voted to leave.

Everything else is just hyperbole.

---------- Post added at 12:45 ---------- Previous post was at 12:44 ----------

Den - finally, we agree!:)

Re: Brexit
 

Mostly Corbyn is useless at PMQ, talking about buses and the like but this reply is funny:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...6259459/page/2

Re: Brexit
 

If you frame that it will be quite valuable in a few years.;)

Re: Brexit
 

All of these can be done really fast if desired. Especially since the bill would be very simple. I just did a quick Google to see the fastest bill ever passed, couldn't find it, but I did find this: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ked-parliament

And there were a few more: https://researchbriefings.parliament...ummary/SN04974

Re: Brexit
 

Yes, even I found that hilarious.

But he didn't take May to task hard enough, with his follow up questions.

---------- Post added at 12:52 ---------- Previous post was at 12:50 ----------

Yes but that is a minor bill - you're talking about a huge bill here, it took a while to get it passed, I doubt it can be undone in just one session.

Re: Brexit
 

It can be done however fast the political will wants it. Even if it's a big bill although I suspect all you need to do is revoke the previous bill in it's entirety. Unless there are other complications you could probably fit the wording into a single page.

The obstacle to stopping Brexit isn't time or Parliamentary procedures but the political will.

Re: Brexit
 

Quite. As I understand the situation, there is no appetite for this anyway.

Re: Brexit
 

Theresa May is on the Parliamentary record as acknowledging the possibility of no Brexit at all if they vote her deal down.

If I’m expected to trust a former Prime Minister on another continent then I’m sure our Prime Minister can be trusted to know this.

Re: Brexit
 

But are you really saying that Theresa May would go for it? Of course she wouldn't - it wouldn't make sense for her to do so and she would definitely lose her credibility entirely if she did.

My view is that the deal will probably pass, but a no-deal is what we'd have if it did not.

The only joker I can see in this pack is if the rejection of the deal panics the EU and they come back to offer us something better!

---------- Post added at 13:08 ---------- Previous post was at 13:07 ----------

As I said before, this seems to have been a ruse to make her Brexiteer rivals think again. It may have worked.

Re: Brexit
 

You’d assume our Parliamentarians would see through such an obvious ruse if there wasn’t time to implement a reversal of the EU Withdrawal Act.

Re: Brexit
 

No I am just saying it's technically possible.

Re: Brexit
 

I agree. But it's not politically possible if Theresa May and her government want to continue to win elections. The electorate would never forgive her for that and she knows it.

---------- Post added at 13:17 ---------- Previous post was at 13:16 ----------

She was making the point. There is no way Theresa May would risk losing all credibility if she were to take that route. It will not happen, as you will see very soon now.

Re: Brexit
 

interesting few days ahead to see how her meetings with the EU go

Re: Brexit
 

And more time for Rees Mogg to get his imaginary 48 letters.;)

Re: Brexit
 

Theresa May has little electoral credibility anyway. She’s got nothing to lose. As a one nation Conservative who believes in doing the right thing for the country you are relying on her to implement a policy she doesn’t agree with.

Re: Brexit
 

I certainly don't think it's possible without a referendum which I think is unlikely. More likely is to kick the can down the road.

Re: Brexit
 

So vassal state for XXX years then?

Re: Brexit
 

Letters can be withdrawn as well. He might end up with only one letter ! MPs are fickle and go with the tide.

---------- Post added at 13:50 ---------- Previous post was at 13:47 ----------

Can't believe anybody would think a vassal state is better than what we've got atm. It's a lose lose all round no matter which way you voted.

Re: Brexit
 

exactly no deal the PM could get would be better that what we got at moment with our Veto and all our opt outs we got

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

What vetoes and opt outs? So much is done by qualified majority voting.


We had an opt-out(Maastricht treaty) on the "Working Time Directive", but the EU foisted it upon us by the back door.

Re: Brexit
 

I’ve been saying this for days now.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Let's step back a bit.

Assuming the Meaning Vote fails and there is no mandate in Parliament for the TM Deal, we, as a country, face a choice which will be enacted through our elected representatives, our MP's.

If these MP's conclude that the TM deal is unacceptable, something that we, as an electorate empower them so to do, we are left with a binary choice:

1. Leave with No Deal with the (majority consensus) conclusion of negative implications that this entails with no mandate from the country
2. Ask the country to validate, based on a position of informed consent, the No Deal scenario or the Remain "as is" scenario.

After all, it is less important how we arrived at this fork in the road but, rather, what is on the road ahead of us. What we can now clearly see before us is a choice with visible and actual consequences.

Re: Brexit
 

The Guardian are reporting that triggering Aricle 50 is an executive function, not a Parliamentary one, so therefore the Prime Minister can on behalf of the Government (the institution, not the party) suspend Article 50.

It then follows that if the European Court of Justice advises the Court of Session that a Government is within it’s legislative competence to unilaterally withdraw Article 50 it wouldn’t require Parliamentary approval at all.

She’d be toast, but arguably she already is, and any future Government of any party would have to start from scratch triggering Article 50.

Re: Brexit
 

If it came to another referendum, I agree that should be the choice of question, Seph.

I am against the idea only because this drags everything out even further. Whatever the result, there would still be endless arguments about it, as we have found the first time around.

We need to get on with it now so that our businesses can prepare.

---------- Post added at 18:11 ---------- Previous post was at 18:04 ----------

I don't think Theresa May will be toast. As that Sunday Times article shows, the public is coming around to appreciating all the hard work she's been putting into this despite multiple obstacles and objections being thrown at her from all sides.

I am disappointed that she is now threatening a 'no Brexit', although I do think she has done that to make the Eurosceptics threatening to vote the deal down think again. If the Parliamentary arithmetic does not work out on the day of the vote, and for whatever reason the idea that we just drop out of the EU on 29 March 2019 cannot stand, then, and only then, would I agree to put a 'deal or no deal' referendum to the people.

Re: Brexit
 

She’s toast. While her public approval is up the Conservatives aren’t.

After the disaster of her last campaign there’s no chance she will make it to a natural general election. Her only chance of making the next election is the collapse of her own Government.

If there’s a public vote there’s no way remain doesn’t make it onto the ballot paper.

Re: Brexit
 

But that’s a deal to remain the EU, which we are leaving so it’s a pretty pointless comment.

Re: Brexit
 

Teressa May mentioned a no Brexit at all again in parliament today so it not pointless at all

Fears over Brexit deal sign-off this weekend as UK-EU talks continue

https://news.sky.com/story/fears-ove...tinue-11559692

Re: Brexit
 

If parliament vote down the agreement, then TM would be well within her rights to walk away. She did her best. It would then need a new PM to get us through no deal.

Once we have left the EU with no deal, the government and the EU would have to very quickly set out our new relationship.

---------- Post added at 19:33 ---------- Previous post was at 19:29 ----------

You’ve got three options

This deal

This deal - amended between now and March

No deal.

No Brexit is not an option.

Re: Brexit
 

would not been mentioned at all if it was not a option at all

Re: Brexit
 

Tell that to TM and her ministers, it now seems to be 'in play' . It's coming down to 2 options:- worse than now or the same as now. No deal isn't an option and never has been.

Re: Brexit
 

You’ve missed my point, probably deliberately, again.

Theresa May, as Head of Government, has the legal authority to postpone Brexit indefinitely and could shortly could find out she has the authority to reverse it. No Parliamentary approval or second referendum required.

No Brexit is an option. The only question, ironically, is would the EU allow it.

Re: Brexit
 

May set to return to Brussels after talks with EU fail to finalise Brexit deal

https://news.sky.com/story/fears-ove...tinue-11559692

Re: Brexit
 

Nothing to worry about. If I’m right everything needs to be done at the last minute to minimise time for coherent challenge.

It helps the optics of the situation for the May deal to both “hard fought” and “inadequate”.

Re: Brexit
 

She wouldn’t do that. It would make her a pariah to the nation, and resign her in history as the great betrayer. No one wants that as a legacy.

Won’t happen.

Re: Brexit
 

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, on Peston just now when asked what happens in the event of the deal being voted down. “There could be no deal, but there could equally be no Brexit.”

When pressed on what that meant he said we would be in uncharted territory and nobody could predict what would happen in the chaos that ensues.

He described no smooth transition as costing the economy “tens of billions” of pounds. Paying the EU to ensure smooth transition would be more effective.

---------- Post added at 20:28 ---------- Previous post was at 20:26 ----------

And a hero to the other half of the country. The woman who put country before party and political convenience.

Could probably make a small fortune on the speaking circuits telling the story of it all. Fighting within the Party, conflict with the EU, Russian interference...

Re: Brexit
 

A prime minister that double crossed the nation, said that no deal was better than a bad deal, then sold us out?

History would not look kindly on her, and would consign the Tory’s to a generation out of power,

Re: Brexit
 

You are assuming the country holds your opinion, 39 million people didn’t vote for Brexit. Leave and remain are a statistical dead heat in the polls.

There’s no predicting how post-Brexit elections would go. Would your average Conservative voter risk a Corbyn Government? Tax and spend socialism?

Can’t see it. This frenzy can be stamped out as quickly as it was ignited.

A good policy on inheritance tax tends to focus the minds.

Re: Brexit
 

And they did not vote for Remain either. But you know they don't count after the vote don't you? :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

Well the £39 billion we're proposing to give away for absolutely nothing works out at about £800 for each of the electorate. I'm sure we could all use it for better things.

Re: Brexit
 

I’m not claiming they did.

There’s a large number of people out there who didn’t vote in the referendum who could get motivated to vote in a general election on any number of issues that aren’t the European Union.

Re: Brexit
 

Well, having just listened to PMQs, Theresa May committed again to leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. So I think you are still clutching at straws on that one. The PM could not have been clearer.

Re: Brexit
 

That is a statistical phallus.

It’s like saying. 6 billion of the world didn’t vote fot Brexit, yes because they were either ineligible or didn’t bother. The only numbers that count are the ones that did. And won.

Re: Brexit
 

Except to make Rees Mogg and his chums to think again!

Re: Brexit
 

You could bring them up if you're guessing the numbers in a second referendum. I think the dimwits who sat it out because 'nothing ever changes man' and subsequently were jolted out of their idiocy before the last election would likely turn out this time. The youth turnout was predictably shocking last time.

---------- Post added at 22:04 ---------- Previous post was at 22:00 ----------

Spain and France are iffy about the deal it seems.

Maybe they really are and it would surely be curtains for May's deal if it were rejected by the EU!

Or maybe it's a bit of theatre. Saturday rolls around and suddenly the deal is off! Panic stations. Gloomy leaks from No 10. Dire warnings from EU leaders. Too far apart, it's all going wrong. Late night sessions into the early hours of Sunday, the meeting won't happen. Until a last minute deal! She did it! That was hard. Surely Parliament can't vote against it now since it's clear this is the best we can get?

Re: Brexit
 

they don't have the numbers to oust her OB cant even get 48 letters

Re: Brexit
 

Well no, how many of the 6bn are entitled to vote in a general election in the United Kingdom?

The people who chose to abstain didn’t choose to be prohibited from voting in all future general elections, and rightfully are not. Equally if the question were to be put to the people again they may be inclined to vote.

Their decision to abstain applies to that referendum only, for as long as that advisory vote is valid.

You can’t really predict the impact of a reversal on a general election, especially if both main parties broadly support the decision. Even more so if the Tories remove May and she takes the fall for it, putting country before herself and the party.

Re: Brexit
 

Ah, but that vote or lack thereof means you are never to be allowed to change your mind and vote next time, or vote differently to last time, according to some, because they are adamant there cannot be a next time.

Old saying - A week is a long time in politics, so never can mean maybe or soon or in due course, or as parliament feels at the time.

Re: Brexit
 

More Project Fear again, Dave! ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Very cynical Damien but probably true ! May and the EU are following a script, they should all join the actors union Equity !

Still should be enough to sway her fickle Brexit base. The papers that were fervently in favour of meaningful Brexit have now gone luke warm in the face of reality. Seems the tactic if it fails a vote in parliament to keep making them vote again with increasing dire warnings. Labour MPs will slowly come on board and the ERG will continue to disintegrate. Even the DUP might grudgingly abstain or vote for it, faced with the prospect of a Corbyn govt., as long as they've had a 'fight' and made some trouble.

It's a crap deal, we all know it, and it isn't really 'Brexit', but it's better than no deal. However it will be the end of May and probably the Govt., so look on the bright side :)

Re: Brexit
 

No deal means a deal might be possible in the future, a deal is something we would be stuck with for eternity.

Re: Brexit
 

How do you make that out? The trade deal will replace the withdrawal agreement, which is what they are negotiating now. Is two years an eternity to you?

Re: Brexit
 

LOL, that's the real absurdity. The Trade issue they haven't really talked about, and it's the main Brexit issue ! Do you really think that will be easy ?! We'll be in the Customs Union/'transition' forever, a second class EU country. We'll apply to rejoin within the next decade, suspect we may be told where to go !

Re: Brexit
 

There can be a next time, in around 40-50 years or so. That was the time between the last two referendums

Re: Brexit
 

Not n my lifetime then. Nor in the lifetime of a huge number of people who may not have voted or who would like to vote differently given a second chance.

But hey, so long as the minority of the electorate who chose to vote and have not changed their mind in the meantime get what they want, seems to be it. With the deal May appears to have negotiated, we will end up with worse than we have now for an indeterminate period. Please tell me who voted for this?

Re: Brexit
 

That’s the problem when people vote on social ideals, or intangible ideas, rather than economic ones.

Re: Brexit
 

I did wonder this myself! So much is about the optics, what things look like rather than what they actually are. If Theresa May comes back with more concessions or at least appears to have, then that's a 'win', we've given Johnny Foreigner a bloody nose, the taste of British steel and resolve, and all that.

Re: Brexit
 

EU and UK officials agree draft political declaration on future relationship

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-and-uk...eport-11560120

Re: Brexit
 

The Spectator has posted a "legal" analysis from a QA on Mays deal:

May’s Brexit deal: the legal verdict

It is quite damning but I guess this is a right of centre media web site.

So MP's really have to decide if the analysis of the Spectator is correct and so vote the TM Deal down or that the TM Deal represents the best of a bad situation ..

Re: Brexit
 

well . . . if I was paid £77k (minimum) a year I wouldn't be that concerned about whichever deal we ended up with, especially if I came out looking as though I'd done the best I could and was almost guaranteed the £77k for another few years :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

Can I quote you on that in a couple of years?

Re: Brexit
 

The QC is Martin Howe, who writes opinion pieces for

Lawyers for Britain
Briefings for Brexit
Brexit Central

and wants to scrap the Human Rights Act, so I am fairly confident that his view is not completely unbiased...

btw, it’s one lawyer’s view, not the ‘legal’ view - it is not a consensus view confirming a legal position.

Re: Brexit
 

Tim Loughton is our local MP.

With the rest of the opposition parties whipping their MPs to vote May's deal down it looks like it's about to get sunk whether the DUP support her or not.

Then it gets interesting.

Re: Brexit
 

Well, the ERG said they had 48 letters, and it turned out to be counterfactual, so perhaps, just perhaps, people are blowing smoke up fundaments...

Re: Brexit
 

Yes you may :)

Re: Brexit
 

What we don't know is how many Labour MPs will defy the Whip and vote with the Conservatives.

Re: Brexit
 

And what happens at the end of that period? Same situation as now. The EU won't negotiate anything as they know May and Corbyn will capitulate to them.

Re: Brexit
 

A question no one can answer with any confidence until the vote takes place.

Re: Brexit
 

cant seeing it being enough for it to get past parliament but we see

Re: Brexit
 

It could be. The big questions are whether the hard line Brexiteers will decide it's too risky to vote against and whether Theresa May can pursuade the DUP to stick with her.

If she slips them some money to keep Bombadier from making all those redundancies - that might help! :D

Re: Brexit
 

If she wants to remain anyway, she won’t need offer anyone any money.

Re: Brexit
 

It seems I got lost and confused somewhere between pages 27 and 230 (approx) because I thought we'd voted to leave the EU.

Now I'm reading that we're thinking of paying a large wad of cash to the EU so we can stay in it, but are actually out of it :shrug: :sulk:

Re: Brexit
 

Like any legal agreement, there are fees and charges if you leave early to cover outstanding costs incurred.

Simples...

Re: Brexit
 

It appears that Slovakians living in the UK have taken to whipping local residents in Sheffield; I wonder if this is connected to Brexit??

Re: Brexit
 

Yup, almost certainly. It's page 4 of the agreement actually.

Re: Brexit
 

LOL :D:D:D

Re: Brexit
 

Part of May's appeasement: Compulsory whipping of all UK residents by Slovakians daily. :D

Re: Brexit
 

The French may also hold us in contempt but no more than a true Brit already holds themselves in contempt, So win for May there.

Re: Brexit
 

The Torygraph isn't onside yet.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...will-go-ahead/
Over 6,000 venomous comments already; the DT readers comments are the darkest place on the web !

Re: Brexit
 

I used to love the Telegraph website back in the day when they used to publish a ton of columnist blogs every day. The below-the-line comments were always a riot (and made me seem like a hand-wringing liberal) :D

Re: Brexit
 

The Telegraph used to be a pretty good newspaper to read before it followed the way of other newspapers and became too politicised.

Re: Brexit
 

They fired a lot of the journalists and turned into a clickbait driven commentary site. It's a shame because it was a Conservative paper but took itself seriously but now it's just a mess. All papers have been declining to an extent but the destruction at The Telegraph is still dramatic.

Re: Brexit
 

A LOL *and* 3 Smilies ... progress I suppose :)

---------- Post added at 21:47 ---------- Previous post was at 21:45 ----------

If they are EU migrants, I bet they are only paying minimum wage for the Whipping as well, cheapskates! :)

Re: Brexit
 

Whether we leave without a deal, or Mays agreement is accepted, i'm immensely pleased that freedom of movement will cease and that the likes of these will no longer have the right to come here:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/770603...effield-shock/

If we end up staying as we are and freedom of movement continues, I can see serious trouble ahead; this area of Sheffield is already at boiling point. One local woman said earlier this evening that she wants to leave the area, but these people have made her house reduce in value by £30,000, so she doesn't know when she'll be able to afford to.

Re: Brexit
 

I agree. I always liked the Telegraph as it used to be fair in its reporting. You may not have liked its political stance but the journalism was, most of the time, honest.

I rang them up earlier today to cancel my subscription and they offered my a half price deal to stay (which I politely declined) so maybe their membership numbers are being hit?

Re: Brexit
 

Oh dear...The deal won't succeed, Spanish PM plans to veto Brexit, but I am sure he meant to say the deal... he has tweeted in last half hour....

Re: Brexit
 

We'll see. They might add something of little consequence to buy him off and give him a small domestic victory, alternatively the other EU states will apply pressure or indeed he might veto the whole thing.

Re: Brexit
 

He wants Gibraltar I think...

Re: Brexit
 

Why can't some unelected EU bureaucrat overrule him? That's how I've been told it works. ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Nah, he knows he won't get that. He probably does want to keep Gibraltar from being part of the UK trade 'area' for practical reasons with travel/trade and domestic reasons.

That said I don't think it's a big concession. I believe Gibraltar is already treated differently from the UK, as are the crown dependences, and the omission of this was probably because no one really thought to add it.

Re: Brexit
 

But with legal agreements any potential costs are set out in advance.


The money is not fees or charges, but is tax-like in nature. It is connected to GDP and other variable measures. The final figure paid in any year changes as economic figures for that year are updated. If you move to another country, you are no longer liable for tax in the country you have left. If there is some sort of tax liability remaining, you usually keep voting rights in that country.


Part of the basis for the figure arrived at, was the setting of a 5 year budget plan. Just as well the budget plans are every 5 years and not 10 or more, or we would have have to be paying even greater sums. There is no varying agreed amount that countries pay in. So when a budget is set there is NO actual agreement by any country to pay anything in.



Those are taxes.

Re: Brexit
 

The only decent read now sometimes is the Times which tends not to be overtly political.

Re: Brexit
 

Well what do you know, that arch Brexiteer Raab has admitted staying in the EU is better than the current deal ! Well there's a surprise !
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...will-go-ahead/

Re: Brexit
 

Perhaps the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing Mr K.;)

Re: Brexit
 

Edging ever closer...

Re: Brexit
 

Fake News - He has categorically denied suggesting or saying this on Twitter. Saying he will fight for a proper Brexit.

https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/stat...86513421058048

Re: Brexit
 

I tend believe more what people say live than what they tweet later....