Cable Forum - Coronavirus (OLD)

There's various theories. Not clear to me which one is most likely. The number of deaths seems to be staying low, either because treatments are getting better or because the vulnerable are shielding.

The other theories are that now we have a lot more testing so whilst it seems there are more cases we're actually underestimating how high it was in the Spring when most of the cases found were hospital admissions. The actual circulation of the virus might have been huge!

Also there might be a weaker strain spreading and/or younger people are getting it at higher rates relative to older people.

Sephiroth

05-09-2020 23:51

Re: Coronavirus

From public domain information, it seems to me that:

1 Deaths are reduced because treatments have improved

2 Deaths are reduced also because there are fewer hospital admissions

3 Hospital admissions are not rising in proportion to positive cases because it's younger people who are infected

- There is no evidence of a weaker strain
- Au contraire, the virus is out there for a second wave if we are not careful
- I believe older people to be vigilant & careful

Until the science can tell us whether antibodies provide sufficient protection and for how long, it's still a pretty dire picture.

Into the mix goes a Guvmin that is finding it difficult to balance the need for public health protection and economic health protection. Fr what my opinion is worth, the latter is more dangerous in the long run than the virus (but can't be sure till we know how antibodies behave).

On balance, Shit Creek awaits!

jfman

06-09-2020 00:04

Re: Coronavirus

New stats of requiring positive test within 28 days of death massage the figures. The old way has it’s flaws, I agree, but death occurs later especially where intensive care is involved. They’re not likely to retest them when on the way out, after a positive test, are they!

Pierre

06-09-2020 00:12

Re: Coronavirus

Bottom line is, Nobody cares anymore. The threat of further lockdown is an idle threat, they won’t do it.

Local lockdowns/restrictions are a joke as they are just ignored anyway.

jfman

06-09-2020 00:50

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36048768)

Bottom line is, Nobody cares anymore. The threat of further lockdown is an idle threat, they won’t do it.

Local lockdowns/restrictions are a joke as they are just ignored anyway.

If people don’t adhere to local restrictions then a national lockdown is inevitable. You may consider it an idle threat now but when the body bags pile up restrictions will come in as in March. The logic behind decision making has not changed. Regional lockdowns are the only mitigation against a national one.

Colleges and universities aren’t back yet. Many offices are working from home. Herd immunity Whitty says we are at or near the limit of the extent we can ease restrictions. It’s popcorn time for those who can safely observe this social experiment.

1andrew1

06-09-2020 01:38

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36048739)

I am just waiting for the government to finally wake up to the fact that fighting the virus by lockdowns is futile. We cannot carry on like this.

If the scientists are correct and that our later national lockdown made little impact on the virus (in that the peak we reached would have been virtually the same had we not done so), then there will be no second wave here that will have an unacceptable impact on the NHS.

And when will it dawn on people that the reason the number of infections are still going up again has rather something to do with the fact that we are testing more? The number of hospital admissions and the number of deaths recorded both remain very low.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Julian (Post 36048750)

THIS article from three months ago suggests a similar theory.

That's an interesting read thanks for sharing.
However, I'm still having difficulty in finding mention of the scientists Old Boy is referring to. This is one professor's data modelling.

Pierre

06-09-2020 09:43

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36048771)

when the body bags pile up.

May sound great in a hollywood script, but it won’t happen.

We’ve had the wave, I haven’t seen anything that suggests a second wave of the same magnitude is coming.

Lockdowns (national and local) have been routinely ignored without cases spiking. There have been ups and downs but nothing major.

downquark1

06-09-2020 11:20

Re: Coronavirus

Well the medical establishment seems convinced there will be a second wave. If there isn't we should definitely be considering removing the social distancing measures.

Carth

06-09-2020 12:50

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36048790)

Well the medical establishment seems convinced there will be a second wave. If there isn't we should definitely be considering removing the social distancing measures.

I'd be shouting "the end is nigh" too if it gave me extra funding ;)

OLD BOY

06-09-2020 13:46

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36048753)

There's various theories. Not clear to me which one is most likely. The number of deaths seems to be staying low, either because treatments are getting better or because the vulnerable are shielding.

Well, the number of hospital admissions remains low as well. I agree that once in hospital with Covid, they are better able to treat you than before, but that's not impacting significantly on the low number of deaths as the fact remains that less patients are actually being treated in hospital.

We may not get that second wave, or if we do, it may well be minor compared to what Spain and France are experiencing. Presumably, given what was said about the first peak, that's because the virus had done its worst already. Those who locked down earlier are now reaping the cost of that with this second wave.

This is why it is far too early to criticise the government for the later lockdown. All some other EU countries have done is to prolong the agony. We may yet see other countries overtaking us in terms of the number Covid deaths. Also bear in mind that each country compiles its figures in a different way. That needs ironing out as well before we start agonising over whether this country got it right.

---------- Post added at 13:46 ---------- Previous post was at 13:42 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36048790)

Well the medical establishment seems convinced there will be a second wave. If there isn't we should definitely be considering removing the social distancing measures.

The medical establishment is not always right! Just keep an eye on the important numbers, which tell you all you need to know. I would have thought that if we were getting a substantial second wave, we'd know about it by now.

jfman

08-09-2020 18:24

Re: Coronavirus

Still clinging on to it being different for us on the basis of no evidence whatsoever. When we get the second wave, as it’s now inevitable due to the inadequacy of test, trace, isolate it’ll be just as bad.

We’re simply on delay and not learning the lessons from what we are seeing.

This is the latest “multigenerational households”, “it’ll go away in the summer” or similar speculative nonsense. The good news is though the back to the office campaign has died off before it started.

GrimUpNorth

08-09-2020 18:47

Re: Coronavirus

As of the 4th September the infection rate in Leeds was 47.9 up from 29.6 the week before. It does look like it's beginning to get away from the authorities best efforts.

jfman

08-09-2020 18:51

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 36049139)

As of the 4th September the infection rate in Leeds was 47.9 up from 29.6 the week before. It does look like it's beginning to get away from the authorities best efforts.

Whitty said we are at or near the limits of easing restrictions on 31 July so to argue we didn’t know and nobody could have expected it when we are knee deep in the second wave in a couple of months is ignoring the facts.

Not you, but I’m sure others will put in a valiant effort.

Mad Max

08-09-2020 19:03

Re: Coronavirus

Are the numbers up not due to the fact that thousands more people are being tested?

pip08456

08-09-2020 19:07

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36048790)

Well the medical establishment seems convinced there will be a second wave. If there isn't we should definitely be considering removing the social distancing measures.

Not the whole medical eastablishment.

Quote:

The NHS currently remains ‘COVID-19 ready’ in preparation for an expected second wave, a highly unlikely scenario based upon an initial model with highly sensitive input variables that we already know to be inaccurate. The evidence we’ve presented leads us to believe there is unlikely to be a second wave and that while there have been apparent multi-‘wave’ respiratory viruses in the past, notably 1918-20, in many cases it became clear that this was either different populations being infected at different times or in some cases multiple different organisms involved. There is no biological principle that leads us to expect a second wave based on the accumulation of data over the past six months. Instead, it is likely there will be local, small and self-limiting mini-outbreaks as areas previously unexposed come into contact with the virus.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/address...9-second-wave/

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