Cable Forum - UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36063520)

[COLOR="Blue"]Wakey wakey, OB.

Looks like your prediction of months ago is about to be fulfilled.

How so?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36010275)

16th September 2019 One thing he will know is that BJ isn't in a mood to take any nonsense about yet another extension...

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36063565)

How so?

OB always said that a deal would come at the last moment.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36063566)

OB always said that a deal would come at the last moment.

When were desperate for one, and have to make the concessions we said we wouldn't do ? Yes he was right there.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36063567)

When were desperate for one, and have to make the concessions we said we wouldn't do ? Yes he was right there.

But premature don’t you think old chap? Unless you’ve somehow seen the text already? Because naturally there’s no way your prejudices would lead you to make such assertions without evidence.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36063554)

No Deal would have been an acceptable bargaining tactic towards a deal, had none been done by 31 December. The EU has had philosophical difficulties with this process; (unsurprising, as we thoroughly upended their ever-closer union narrative by leaving) it might have been necessary for them to see us walk before they were ready to accept the concept of the national sovereignty of a third party. Had it happened, a deal would have been done some time in 2021. No Deal as an end in itself was only ever the wet dream of a very few. You really ought to put the Grauniad down and get out a bit more.
.

No deal has been the 'wet dream' of many on here, and of Torygraph readers by the sound of it. Haven't you heard ? I'm a fan of the paper, v entertaining ;)

However a deal is damage limitation and something to be welcomed. I for one can't wait for the blue passport, worth 4 years of negotiation for that.:)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36063506)

To me, the important factors would now be:

1. Tariff/quota free goods;

2. A short grace period for adjustments to be made on both sides.

It would be interesting to learn what will happen on visiting the EU and matters such as IDPs/Green Cards.

I would like to see an OBR report on the additional costs UK industry will have to bear for the increased administrative burden.

Finally, I won't be whinging if they get a bit more fish.

This probably answers your questions on the negative economic impact to the UK but is probably not as granular as you strive for. The trouble is, saying the economy will be X% worse off doesn't really mean much to most people so is disregarded as it's not translated into what this means in terms of schools, hospitals, jobs for their children, etc.

Quote:

The short-term impact in deal and no-deal scenarios
In the short term, additional trade frictions between the UK and EU will occur in both scenarios. There is also the possibility of immediate disruption to trade from 1 January 2021 due to the new rules with, for example, new border checks and customs formalities.

The vast majority of economic studies from the government (in 2018) and others show that the higher the barriers (cost) of trading with the EU (via tariffs and non-tariff barriers), the larger the negative impact on the UK economy overall in the long-term. A no-deal outcome is associated with a greater hit to GDP.

The OBR, based on analysis of external economic studies, expects UK GDP to be around 4% lower in a deal scenario in the long-term compared to a scenario where the UK stayed in the EU. In a no-deal scenario the OBR expects GDP would be an additional 2%-points lower.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-9096/

---------- Post added at 11:01 ---------- Previous post was at 10:58 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36063569)

Having a Polish-made blue passport will help passport control to rapidly direct you away from the short EEA/EU passports queue towards the long UK passport queue. :D

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

A deal is much better then a no deal as even Nigel Farage seems pleased with it...

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-ne...close-12149804

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36063573)

A deal is much better then a no deal as even Nigel Farage seems pleased with it...

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-ne...close-12149804

Unusual - most unlike Nigel to mention the War... :D

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36063574)

Unusual - most unlike Nigel to mention the War... :D

Yes, remind me never to play the Nigel Farage drinking game again! :D

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36063569)

You’re still utterly deluded. You lost and you have never accepted it.

I have always maintained we ought to get a good deal, but no deal is better than a bad deal and I would have accepted it. But it seems from what I’m seeing leaking from Brussels, we got major concessions from EU. They have caved at the 11th hour. We have compromised as well, but we’ve left their expensive con job club whilst maintaining free trade and gaining full control on being open for business to rest of world.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Mick what characteristics does this deal have for example what a bad deal wouldn't?

I'm genuinely curious what the difference is.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Let's see the deal. I suspect we've given more than we wanted on fish in return for better tariff-free access and EU concessions on the level playing field.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

I'm hoping it's not simply a case of the Emperor's New Clothes. Many of us saw President-elect Biden's emphatic victory in the US Presidential election as a likely pivot of US foreign policy towards Paris and Berlin away from London and a Trump administration keen to disrupt European influence on the world stage.

With no deal off the table since November do we now have a bad deal?

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36063585)

Let's see the deal. I suspect we've given more than we wanted on fish in return for better tariff-free access and EU concessions on the level playing field.

Yes, fish were really our only negotiating card. Minimal economic value to concede on but huge emotional value to some European fishing nations. A good card to hold.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

The issue on fishing has always been about control. A transitional phase and the possibility of a future minimum quota for the EU has always been on the table from the UK.