Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Is there a Youtube video to explain what your first sentence means?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I suspect this post works best in its original language. It loses a bit upon translation from Russian. ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I doubt it, in fact I'd be interested in what the first sentance means,

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No but there is pip08456 post which your quote, my post responds to

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No one quoted my post except you, I and I'm sure Chris would like to know what you meant by what you said.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I didn't say Chris post had your quote in :confused:

Ukrainians are effectively screaming at themselves then by being put on the lines of battle against their former selves.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No, they are not - they are fighting the Russians (and North Koreans), not other Ukrainians

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

pip08456 said Ukrainian kids are being put on the front line to battle Ukrainians. Did you read pip08456 post?

Also Chinese are in there

https://www.economist.com/china/2025...ing-in-ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1wdd228953o

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Wrong, I never said that. Try reading posts instead if skimming over them and making an incorret assumption.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

How is this a me problem if you're saying or quoting other people :confused: may be you and Hugh and Chris, may be even Andrew find a quiet spot and discuss jfman :rolleyes:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Everyone except you realised that the "needless soldiers" pip was talking about were Russian, in response to your post about needsless soldiers being killed by the Ukrainians…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Understood but it brings me to repost my original post

regardless who started it.

If you want to play judge go for it. I don't want to play with ill-fated choices.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Not to judge but as Russia invaded Ukraine then they started it surely.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia has accusations of Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Accusations of what? Don't forget Ukraine was no threat to Russia.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don't have the list. It was reported when the conflict kicked off. Russia was accusing Ukraine of all sorts. Maybe someone can help an idiot like me of those threats to Russia.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Can you not proof read your stuff before you hit post? Several of your contributions here this afternoon make no grammatical sense whatsoever.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2738787.html

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-april-23-2025

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia has no interest in peace at all, they'll just keep going, at least until Putin dies.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Vlad is playing Don like a big orange fiddle.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

yep!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Putin defence general triadically killed in accident

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/worl...-b1224241.html

probably a faulty hand brake

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Was he near a window?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Not far off, probably just fell out of his windscreen.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

we can only hope

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Doing this on the day Trump sends his bag-man Steve Witkoff to Moscow is quite the power move by Ukraine. Nothing says “no, we’re not going just sign the carve-up you lot are working on right now” than blowing up a Russian general before they’ve even opened the vodka.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

From his Time Magazine interview (first 100 days in Office)

https://time.com/7280114/donald-trum...ew-transcript/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

This is when Putin gets rid of you.

I think the implication here is this was done by Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Apparently Trump said he would end the war on Day One (or before) figuratively/as an exaggeration/to make a point/in jest at least 53 times over nineteen months - what a joker!

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/25/p...war/index.html

---------- Post added at 18:01 ---------- Previous post was at 17:47 ----------

Trump’s latest Truth Social post, after meeting Zelensky at the Pope’s funeral.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

"It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along,”

You don’t wonder that maybe, just maybe, the penny has dropped?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well I dont think anyone actually took him seriously. It was obviously nonsense from the start.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So far the Ukrainians haven't admitted it but it would not surprise me.

It is the type of thing Budanov would do and has done before.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

How very thoughtful of him. Thank you for my freedom :D

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Good news for Ukraine - Kremlin sock puppet George Simeon has failed to get elected president in Romania. Their general election has been won by pro-EU liberal candidate Nicusor Dan.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You're in bad company there. Seph. Time to give up supporting Putin's candidates and get behind Zelensky and the EU.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Since 2022, it's become clear that these two beliefs are diametrically opposed.

The EU exploding now would severely handicap Zelensky.

Time to reflect on which is most important to you - Zelensky succeeding or the EU imploding.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If Ukranian independence is your priority, you should only desire the EU to implode when Russia ceases to be a threat to Ukraine.

However, if you value the end of the EU ahead of Ukranian independence, then you would be happy to see the EU implode tomorrow.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

European countries can still co-operate on things with which they agree. They don’t need the EU to achieve that.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

An implosion of the EU would be magic to Putin's ears. Countries falling out with one another are barriers to co-operation.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

while they sit in a tub bath :D

WARNING has swearing

https://youtu.be/0-2WDS2u4tw?feature=shared

:LOL:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://archive.ph/IQ11d

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

They seem to have used Russian civilian logistics against them, duping truckers to drive specially modified shipping containers to locations near the target airbases, whereupon swarms of short-range drones launched from the containers.

If Russia has lost anything close to 40 strategic bombers, it has suffered a catastrophic loss and Ukrainian tactics will be studied for years to come. In fact the MoD should be studying it right now, because whatever we’re about to spend 3% of our own GDP on must take into account an enemy’s potential ability to do exactly this to us.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And the TU-95s (large long-range strategic bombers) and the TU-22M3s (supersonic long-range bombers) aren’t being manufactured any more, so they can’t be replaced…

Addendum - as these planes were also part of the Russian nuclear deterrent triad (land, air, and sea, and the Russian boomer subs aren’t on continuous patrol, unlike the U.K. and the USA), I would imagine there’s a lot of re-planning taking place to balance out the loss of a substantial part of the air delivery side of Instant Sunshine…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

sky news video
https://news.sky.com/story/special-u...-says-13377779

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Taco comforted him over a phone call so Putin is apparently feeling less distraught.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

A little has happened since the last post. Trump decreased a window for a ceasefire

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c707zrrd7xqo

And now Russia is showing they aren't in it for peace

https://news.sky.com/story/trump-ord...ments-13405255

I know the majority of you will just knock Trump for being a fool to begin with but having offered an olive branch rather than barking orders what happens next will be interesting.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

He is a fool to begin with, but at least he has seen through Putin now.

I don't understand how Putin and Russia have this hold on people where they cannot see them for what they are. We've had years of saying Ukraine was provoking Russia and blaming the West for not ending this war. America halts arms shipments and attempts to force Ukraine into a peace deal, and Ukraine largely complies, only for Russia to stall and then keep hitting civilian targets. As Trump says he has tried many times to get Russia to agree, Putin strings him along and then bombs a hospital the next day.

Why was Trump surprised by this? Why do people think Russia wants a peaceful settlement? The clue they don't is when they invaded in 2014 and when they invaded in 2022. It's proven when they keep bombing residential areas in Ukraine.

Putin only understands force. The only way this war ends is when the cost of continuing it is too high for him, either politically or economically. That is not sped up by weakening Ukraine, so he thinks he can take more of it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It's not a hold as such. I just respect they live a different way. History suggests it's their land too.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Which is whose land?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I would assume he means Russia.
Afaik, Ukraine was part of Russia/USSR/etc for most of the previous 200 or more years before it became independant in the early 1990's.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That "different way" seems to be bombing the crap out of civilians…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ukraine was part of the Russian empire, for which the title ‘Union of Soviet Socialist Republics’ was a communist euphemism. But, if you go back far enough, Kyiv was a major city when Moscow was still a swamp. The Rus, as a people group, actually originate in the area known as Ukraine, and spread into what we now know as Russia. This is the base justification Putin uses for wanting to bring Ukraine under his control (and why any claim to only the Russian speaking south and east is an outright lie - the claim that it’s Russian land extends at least as far as the modern western border of Ukraine and quite possibly some way further west again). But by his logic it should be Kyiv and its people controlling Russia, not the other way around.

Notwithstanding any of the above, Ukraine has long since developed a distinct culture and language that is Slavic but not Russian. Putin’s pretexts for extending his influence make no more sense than those put forward by Hitler in the 1930s.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Whose history? Ukraine existed for many years before Russia. Moscow was still just an area of swamp.

Chris's post although not strictly accurate is a general account.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

bad boys bad boys whatcha gonna do, whatcha gonna do when they come for you?

Bad men Trump and Putin to meet. Will Trump be as shouty as he was with Zelenskyy :shocked:

https://news.sky.com/story/diplomati...efire-13408149

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...#liveblog-body

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Interesting that Trump is telling Zelenskyy what to do, not much has changed since the kick off in the white house

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I fear today's news has shown even this analysis to be over optimistic.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

A hands on approach of anything really is brilliant education :tu:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Children in Lithuania are to be taught how to build and operate drones as part of the small Baltic country’s efforts to build capacity to deal with any future threat from Russia.



It's official then, The World really has gone mad :rolleyes:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

model aircraft building is a great hobby for kids

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Happy Independence Day, Ukraine.

No thanks to Donny and his attempts to make capitulation the overt policy of the US government though.

We haven’t really talked about this but I can’t help wondering what kompromat Vlad reminded him of in Alaska that made him come out of that meeting and announce to the world that Ukraine would have to surrender a load of land, including stuff Russia badly wants but hasn’t been able to capture in more than 3 years of fighting.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

This was/is never ending until Ukraine ceded territory. I think I was consistent in saying this from the start.

The only question has ever been how much

Those asserting that Russia could be pushed back to pre-2014 lines, that was never happening.

Russia does not have to give up any of the land they have taken, because no one can take it back from them.

Anyway, that said, if no one is happy they can just both carry on killing each other.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Do you think Russia’s demand for Ukraine to cede the entire Donbas is reasonable?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That is a totally irrelevant question.

What is reasonable holds no water in this situation. What is reasonable suggests a proposition of “fair play”……..with Russia!

No, no fair play, no reasonableness

They want to keep what they have taken, and to stop fighting, most likely some more that they will advise…..how much more is up for negotiation. What they have isn’t.

Either agree, or…..

Don’t agree and keep fighting, those are your options….Ukraine will lose, in so far as they’ll generally keep the current lines and many more men will die.

Explain how I’m wrong.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ok … first of all, the question isn’t irrelevant, and by your earlier post you proved it - the question, from Russia’s perspective, is very much how much Putin can plausibly present to the Russian elites as ‘worth it’. He isn’t invulnerable and he has driven the economy over a cliff, as well as engineering a demographic time-bomb that will explode in slow motion over the next decade, thanks to around a million fighting (and breeding) age men being either dead or permanently incapacitated. He needs to keep the elites on-side or else it will be him drinking polonium tea or falling out of a 3rd floor window. So his demands are maximalist and, from Ukraine and Europe’s perspective, un-serious.

The Alaska summit gives the game away. Putin wants the entire Donbas, which he has always wanted, plus whatever he already holds. He may have thought it was worth a punt at getting Trump to strong-arm Ukraine and Europe into accepting that, or, perhaps more likely, he wanted Trump so pi55ed off with it all that he withdraw support and makes it somewhat easier for Putin to fight on until he takes it anyway. The switch in Trump’s rhetoric away from ceasefire talk and onto so-called direct peace treaty negotiations was fed to him by Putin in order to make peace talks less likely, not more so. Putin will not talk to Zelensky under any circumstances because he thinks Zelensky is an illegitimate leader of an illegitimate country.

Putin doesn’t intend to quit forever with Donbas-plus, but he needs to stop and regroup. Russia does not have limitless resources and its way of waging war is extremely inefficient. He needs a breather. If he can get the rest of the Donbas he will have secured an important symbolic win and he will also be the right side of the defensible territory to make another run at Kyiv in 5 or 10 years. Without it, Ukraine, with European help, will make the remainder of its territory a fortress Russia will be no more able to overrun in, say, 2032 than it was in 2022.

Ukraine on the other hand does not want to stop fighting because, first of all, it wants its territory back and knows its citizens in the occupied lands are subject to a kleptocratic regime that uses rape and torture as means of control. There’s nothing desperate or dishonourable in wanting to liberate your citizens from that.

But secondly, the reasons that don’t get broad press coverage: so far Ukraine’s deep strike strategy has destroyed about a third of Russia’s strategic bomber force, neutralised the Black Sea Fleet and has also destroyed more than 13% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, and that figure is increasing weekly. There is now petrol rationing across Russia. Ukraine has developed its own cruise missile with a 1,000km range that it will have hundreds of by year’s end. Unlike Russia, which is trying to bomb Ukrainian morale into dust by terror-bombing cities but is not destroying anything of military use, Ukraine is steadily degrading Russia’s ability to function as an industrial economy. At the moment it is this strategic campaign rather than any serious belief it can get the Donbas back any time soon, that is keeping Ukraine fighting.

For all of the above, and especially because Ukraine is increasingly able to take Russia on even in the face of US obstructionism, the war isn’t going to end this year, and when it does end, it won’t be on the basis of Russia keeping what it holds. If Ukraine can degrade Russia far enough, it will hope to be able to destabilise Russian society and government to the point where it comes to the table with concessions in mind.

We ought not to forget that the USSR could not sustain operations in Afghanistan more than 10 years, and the entire soviet government collapsed less than 2 years after its retreat, leaving Russia an impotent mafia state. It is to ignore the lesson of history to think similar can’t happen again.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Jesus Chris, well I’ll do my best.

The only thing he has spent that is hurting him is “ men”.

Having to rope in very poor North Korean troops, is bad…..very bad. No question, and you could argue on an attrition basis, if Ukraine could gain an advantage or at least a negotiation platform………they won’t.

Putin will probably, in a negotiation, get the entire Donbas. Why wouldn’t he?

The problem is, and we have and can’t seem to get our heads around, is that Russia hold all the cards for this “negotiation”.

Russia has the land they have taken…….so not giving back and can’t be taken.

So any negotiation on territory will not involve that as they already have it, so negotiation involves land to be taken. How much and where tba.

Do we disagree here?

I think in a settlement he probably be offered it…..and take it.

What Ukraine wants and gets are poles apart. Ukraine will get what it gets given. Sad but true. They are in no position to dictate terms.

If you, and for that matter Ukraine, think they can win.

Well carry on then.

“Take Russia on” bollocks.

The question to you Chris is do you believe Ukraine can win this?

You know that is a false equivalence, and again an irrelevance.
.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I’m going to spare us both a lengthy reply by focusing mostly on just this point. It seems you’re commenting without having taken much trouble to stay abreast of what’s actually happening here, which makes your confidence in making predictions and assuming events are bearing them out somewhat confusing.

Russia has not taken the part of the Donbas it still wants because it sits the other side of a network of built and natural obstacles that have made it impossible for them to do so. If Russia were simply given this territory, then Ukraine’s defence against a subsequent run on Kyiv goes with it.

It is, simply, strategic suicide for Ukraine to simply give it up. It would be an utterly bonkers concession to make, and it is not going to do so. That’s why Putin is not going to be given it, and also why he can’t take it by force (the UK’s security update last weekend estimated it would take Russia 4 years and another million casualties to do so - even Russia doesn’t have that much time, manpower or soviet-era tanks at its disposal. Also, incidentally, why it’s pretty clear to those paying attention that Putin is not looking for any kind of off-ramp here. He’s not stupid enough to think Ukraine will willingly give this up, even if some of his admirers think they will, or should.

In what way is it false equivalence? Afghanistan was a military adventure which on paper they should have walked all over, which instead attrited them over a decade, bequeathed them a generation of angry, highly trained mafia foot soldiers and de-legitimised the entire soviet system of government.

If its adventure goes on in Ukraine long enough, the Russian government will face all the same pressures, especially with Ukraine steadily taking millions of barrels of refining capacity offline. Russia is rapidly becoming a petro-state with no petrol.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You say And? Not given, negotiated. It’s also completely hypothetical.

Which bit of “negotiation” don’t you understand?

Putin cannot take anything by force now. He is where he is.

But my point has always been ( fact check me), he doesn’t have to take anything more…..he just has to hold onto what he has.

Tell me…..who is going to take that from him?

Any negotiation will mean more for him, why wouldn’t it?


It was 40 years ago Chris and not relevant in any way this war.
Russia’s oil exports since the conflict began, and sanctions, have increased tenfold year on year.

The shadow fleet in the Baltic is drivng Russian oil exports, never been so high.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2...and-sanctions/

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1756162979

https://archive.ph/qPfcZ

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://energyandcleanair.org/july-2...25%20in%20June.

My point was that Russia continues to export oil via shadow tankers through the Baltic (which I take particular interest in) the usage of which has risen tenfold. Sanctions against Russian oil, have barely made any impact.

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2025/08/1x.png

Russia's economy is not great, but they have a network of customers such as Nth Korea, Iran, China, India, (and cough, lets not forget the EU, happy enough to still buy Gas from Russia) to sustain the war effort.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You said

Which would have been a thousandfold (10 x 10 x 10…

This is not an accurate reflection of actuality - according to the graphs above in your post, it is less now than January 2022.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

OK it was poorly put.

My point was The number of shadow fleet vessels transporting Russian oil has risen from 20% in 2022 to 80% in 2025.

The graph I posted, clearly shows that.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So they’re working harder to smuggle their oil out. Fine, but besides the point.

What gets out, is sold at a discount. Less gets out overall. And Russia’s ability to process what it drills is being degraded on a near daily basis by Ukraine’s strategic strike campaign which is getting gradually more intense by the week, and which will really kick off when its domestically produced Flamingo cruise missile output gets from 1 unit per week to 1 per day, which it is slated to do before year end. Trump’s ban on ATACMS strikes inside Russia, and his effective veto on similar Scalp/Storm Shadow use (via denial of US supplied targeting data)* will have less and less influence on Ukraine as time passes.

The war will end at the negotiating table because wars almost invariably do. However, to imagine the only issue of substance at that table will be Putin holding a lot of land is a very 2 dimensional view of the situation.

*This is strategically bonkers from the US’s point of view as well - next-generation French and UK missiles will for certain no longer rely on American tech or data, and they are already losing orders for very expensive things like F-35s from nations that worry they may be told what they can and can’t do with them in the future.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Chris & Pierre, I took an interest in your earlier discussion about ceding terrortory to Russia to stop the war.

The one thing both of you have missed is that neither Zelensky nor the Ukrainian Gorernment can do so, their constitution expressly forbids it.

To be able to cede any terrortory would need a reforendom to change the constitution, that would be impossible without a controlled genuine cease fire so that everyone can vote, just the same as an election. You cannot expect people to gather to vote for either to be hit by Russian missiles. Then there is the Ukrainiasn diaspora, do they get to vote ?

Chris was entirely correct when he said they would not give up Free Donbas, the most fortified both natural and constructed stronghold in the country.

BTW Chris, they have drones that can go 1000kms the new Cruise Missile named Flamingo (due to a manufacturing error in production of the first few turned out pink!) has a range of 3000km with a 11500kg warhead. (Edit) one per day to develop 7 per day by end of October.

Pierre, you obviously don't know otr understand the Ukrainian people, they will never surrender, never give terrortory to anyone. Either Russia is defeated (and they can do it) or they cease to exist. They are now developing and producing their own weapons to do it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

While it’s true Ukraine’s territorial extent is specified in its constitution, I don’t mention it because it’s a red herring. A constitution can be changed. Yes, it would be fiendishly difficult in Ukraine’s case but the process is set out and can be made to work if there’s the will to do so. Russia itself is going to have to change its constitution at some point, because it changed it a couple of years ago in order to lay claim to swathes of south and east Ukraine, including land it has still failed to occupy and land which Ukraine recaptured in 2022 and 2023 that isn’t even up for debate at the pretend negotiations proposed at Alaska. You are absolutely right, though, there would have to be a ceasefire in order to conduct a referendum, which would require international involvement. And no ceasefire is on offer. A further indicator that the Alaska proposals are un-serious.

The major sticking point, aside from everything we’ve mentioned over the past 24 hours, is that territory changing hands by conquest is anathema in Europe, what with that unfortunate business we concluded in 1945. Europe is absolutely nowhere near backing a peace plan that rewards Putin for his aggression and incentivises him to come back for more later (which he always has done, and always will do). And while it may seem Europe is sidelined by Trump at the moment, the more erratic Trump is and the more explicitly he withdraws support and parrots Kremlin talking points, the clearer it becomes in European capitals that the days of US-backed security are gone. Defence spending and production is ramping up in Europe. It’s still too slow and it has come awfully late, but it’s happening.

We were treated last week to news footage of Admiral Tony Radakin, our chief of defence staff, heading to Washington to try to thrash out what post-Ukraine security architecture would look like and how the US or European armies would be deployed. Nobody need think that mission was conceived with any other intention but to demonstrate to the Trump White House what an insane idea it is and to bog it down in the detail. Notice how Trump shortly afterwards did his customary can-kicking (“I’ll decide in a couple of weeks”) and since then, it has all gone awfully quiet.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ok, I think we can agree that the outcome of any cessation of war will not be Ukraine restored to pre-2014 borders.

Neither would Putin be content with just holding onto the Crimea, as he’s already had it for over a decade and he won’t give up Sevastopol.

So what’s on the table are the gains made by Russia since the war started. Which is about 1/5th of Ukraine (not sure if that includes Crimea or not).

It may be simplistic but what else would the negotiation look like?

- Russia retreats, keeps Crimea and gets a minerals deal with Ukraine? I don’t see that squaring with Putin’s dream of restoring Greater Russia.

- Or perhaps Ukraine fights on to victory, as the picture you seem to be painting has them in the ascendancy.

---------- Post added at 18:27 ---------- Previous post was at 18:24 ----------

Your point falls in 2014. The Crimea has been under Russian control for over a decade and was taken with barely a whimper.

---------- Post added at 18:37 ---------- Previous post was at 18:27 ----------


Indeed, but borders changing in Europe after wars and after the fall of the USSR, is not to be unexpected.

I may have mentioned on this thread before, but I had a conversation in Feb with an ex- Colonel and said this ends with Russia keeping some of the gains, a new border with a demilitarised Zone manned on the Ukraine side by European and or NATO Troops.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So the Ukrainian constitution is a red herring?! Try telling Ukrainians that! They fought for it in 2013-2014 in the Maiden (Independence Square) protestss! I kknow people who were there, thankfully I don't know any who were shot.

Without going to the people the Constitution cannot be changed, they will not cede any terrortery or surrender.

Try understanding the people first. Thankfully I made the time to do so when I went there last year and made so many friends.

They will fighrt until they die, they have no other option.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Putin wants the whole Donbas because it’s mineral rich and gets him closer to Kyiv, which is where he really wants to be. No Ukrainian leader with any agency will agree a peace treaty that hands it over on the basis of its present administrative boundaries because that puts Ukraine’s fortress cities and defensible high ground in Russia’s control. If any territory is ceded at all, it will be Donbas, more or less as presently occupied.

Putin also wants the other southern gains because he wants a land bridge to Crimea. He wants Crimea because whoever controls Crimea controls the Black Sea and he wants a land bridge because the Kerch Strait Bridge is vulnerable, and by some estimates so badly damaged it can no longer support traffic of any weight. All of those reasons are precisely why Ukraine will not agree to any of it, and while I think there is a deal to be had on the basis of Donbas-ish only, there’s no deal ever going to be had for any more than that. The very most we’d ever see would be a Korean-like freezing of the conflict but that would only happen if both sides could tacitly agree they’d worn out their ability to continue.

Who does, however, have the ability to continue? Ukraine is increasing its capabilities month by month and by credible estimates is suffering casualties at only a tenth of the rate of the Russians. The Russian meat assault tactics just can’t go on forever. They are going to run out of people, just as they are going to run out of Soviet era tanks. They can make lots of Shahed terror drones but Ukraine’s getting better and better at shooting them down, and in any case Russia seems unable to put them to strategic use. Meanwhile the whole of Europe is re-arming at an increasing pace and even our shameful politicians are starting to reverse the myopic underinvestment of the past 30 years. A Europe armed to the teeth and attuned to Russian military adventuring was not what Putin was aiming for.

Much of the commentariat is stuck with the old ‘Russian Bear’ mindset which ceased to be the case in the 1990s and has only crumbled further since. They have no army worth the name, crumbling infrastructure and dwindling equipment stockpiles. They are only continuing at all because their leaders have a genocidal disregard for their own people and are willing to sacrifice them by the thousand on futile daily assaults designed to soak up Ukrainian bullets. But even that can’t go on forever.

---------- Post added at 18:57 ---------- Previous post was at 18:56 ----------

In terms of which reasons actually, genuinely, prevent a peace deal occurring, yes it is. I’m not saying the Ukrainians would vote to cede territory, I’m simply saying it is untrue that a statement in a constitution forecloses even the possibility of it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

A useful take on recent events from Timothy Garton Ash, professor of European Studies at Oxford:

https://timothygartonash.substack.co...rumps-disgrace