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-   -   UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33708171)

1andrew1 10-08-2020 14:53
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046175)
..

Btw, I was reading up on the EFTA dispute mechanism (as per Norway). EFTA.int

The EFTA countries don’t submit to the ECJ either, notwithstanding their proximity.
I think the other reason the EU quoted was size - the EFTA countries are small compared to the UK.

Sephiroth 10-08-2020 15:09
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36046177)
I think the other reason the EU quoted was size - the EFTA countries are small compared to the UK.
The immediate comment that comes to mind is that - we are not small. But we are sufficiently small for them to bully us ( my term ).

But Canada isn’t smaller than the UK, nor Japan.

The EU would say that but it’s clear that they want to teach us a lesson. I hope they blink.

1andrew1 10-08-2020 16:06
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046178)
The immediate comment that comes to mind is that - we are not small. But we are sufficiently small for them to bully us ( my term ).

But Canada isn’t smaller than the UK, nor Japan.

The EU would say that but it’s clear that they want to teach us a lesson. I hope they blink.
The equation is probably more like: If third party country has borders with the EU and population >20m then ECJ needed.

You obviously don't want to give as good deal to a third country as you would to a full member or you undermine your membership offering.

Sephiroth 10-08-2020 16:13
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Why do you never explain things through UK eyes? It comes across as apologising for the EU without understanding that the UK cannot accept ecj jurisdiction. Why not criticise the EU for its stance?

jonbxx 10-08-2020 16:32
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046184)
Why do you never explain things through UK eyes? It comes across as apologising for the EU without understanding that the UK cannot accept ecj jurisdiction. Why not criticise the EU for its stance?
Or you could ask (maybe using the 'Five Whys') why the EU has taken such a strong line on the arbitration mechanisms.

Of course, the ECJ issue is somewhat clouded by the fact that part of the UK will be under the jurisdiction of the ECJ regardless of what happens at the end of the year

Sephiroth 10-08-2020 17:03
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36046187)
Or you could ask (maybe using the 'Five Whys') why the EU has taken such a strong line on the arbitration mechanisms.

Of course, the ECJ issue is somewhat clouded by the fact that part of the UK will be under the jurisdiction of the ECJ regardless of what happens at the end of the year
I think you've made a strong point (that could have been made by Andrew and the Ianch) - if it's good enough for NI, then it might as well apply to the whole UK.

But the English and Welsh Leavers won't have that - they don't see there being the same or similar circumstances that merit adherence to ECJ jurisdiction. And neither do I.

NI and the Republic will unite in due course, I'm sure.

1andrew1 10-08-2020 17:29
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046184)
Why do you never explain things through UK eyes? It comes across as apologising for the EU without understanding that the UK cannot accept ecj jurisdiction. Why not criticise the EU for its stance?
You asked for an explanation of the facts which I supplied. It helps to be dispassionate when explaining such matters.
As you know, Boris is accepting ECJ jurisdiction due to the NI situation. Why not get the best deal possible by accepting it more widely so we can finish these talks and leave the EU smoothly?

---------- Post added at 17:29 ---------- Previous post was at 17:27 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046191)
I think you've made a strong point (that could have been made by Andrew and the Ianch) - if it's good enough for NI, then it might as well apply to the whole UK.

But the English and Welsh Leavers won't have that - they don't see there being the same or similar circumstances that merit adherence to ECJ jurisdiction. And neither do I.

NI and the Republic will unite in due course, I'm sure.
It's not about pandering to a particular subset of referendum participants. It's about getting a good deal for a divided country during a pandemic.

Sephiroth 10-08-2020 18:17
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36046192)
You asked for an explanation of the facts which I supplied. It helps to be dispassionate when explaining such matters.
As you know, Boris is accepting ECJ jurisdiction due to the NI situation. Why not get the best deal possible by accepting it more widely so we can finish these talks and leave the EU smoothly?

---------- Post added at 17:29 ---------- Previous post was at 17:27 ----------


It's not about pandering to a particular subset of referendum participants. It's about getting a good deal for a divided country during a pandemic.
It's about getting the right deal, respecting the wishes of the majority voters.

1andrew1 10-08-2020 18:23
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046201)
It's about getting the right deal, respecting the wishes of the majority voters.
Projecting your own beliefs onto 52% of referendum participants may be reassuring emotionally but is flawed intellectually.

Sephiroth 10-08-2020 18:34
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36046203)
Projecting your own beliefs onto 52% of referendum participants may be reassuring emotionally but is flawed intellectually.
That it can't be. You obviously feel that the Guvmin must swallow its current instinct and do the sums to reach a different decision.

Trouble is that 52% + the overspill from the GE do not want the ECJ to have jurisdiction over us. With the EU having similar crippling problems to the UK as a result of CV, it seems to me that this is the best moment to plough our own furrow as we'll not get anything out of the alternative.

1andrew1 10-08-2020 19:05
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046205)
That it can't be. You obviously feel that the Guvmin must swallow its current instinct and do the sums to reach a different decision.

Trouble is that 52% + the overspill from the GE do not want the ECJ to have jurisdiction over us. With the EU having similar crippling problems to the UK as a result of CV, it seems to me that this is the best moment to plough our own furrow as we'll not get anything out of the alternative.
The Government should get the closest deal possible to ensure that in these troubled times, the recession is not far longer and far deeper than it could be.

I'm not sure how ploughing our own fallow and global supply chains work together.

But if ploughing our own fallow is anything like the way we've handled the coronavirus situation (non-tendered deals to cronies for bad equipment, track and trace not working effectively, worst Covid figures in Europe.) then you need to think through such an approach.

Sephiroth 10-08-2020 19:14
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
I'll leave it at that to avoid going round in circles. Needless to say, we are actually far apart on this matter.

I'll cheer you up in a minor way, though. I'd have been content to remain in the EU although I wholly dislike their direction of travel. Reason for that is the UK hasn't travelled backwards whilst in the EU.

Now that we're out, maybe some travelling backwards, but we'll move forward because we have to.

1andrew1 10-08-2020 19:51
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046210)
I'll leave it at that to avoid going round in circles. Needless to say, we are actually far apart on this matter.

I'll cheer you up in a minor way, though. I'd have been content to remain in the EU although I wholly dislike their direction of travel. Reason for that is the UK hasn't travelled backwards whilst in the EU.

Now that we're out, maybe some travelling backwards, but we'll move forward because we have to.
We had opt-out for greater integration, which I wasn't keen on either. The greater integration that is, not the opt-out. ;)

I'll leave that one area of agreement there too and also add that I have one major gripe with the EU/EEC - they did not permit us to join earlier. ;)

Sephiroth 10-08-2020 20:05
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36046224)
We had opt-out for greater integration, which I wasn't keen on either. The greater integration that is, not the opt-out. ;)

I'll leave that one area of agreement there too and also add that I have one major gripe with the EU/EEC - they did not permit us to join earlier. ;)
Ah - something worth talking about!

If CdG had allowed us to join earlier, one of our prime ministers would still have been screwed over by France who always wanted to protect their crazy farm system subsidised by the CAP.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...te-517769.html

jfman 10-08-2020 20:23
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
A compelling read as ever from you two. :)

Chris 10-08-2020 22:54
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Gen. De Gaulle’s time in the U.K. during the war was well spent. As well as rallying French resistance to German occupation, he came to know us better than many of us know ourselves. He was absolutely right that the British outlook and temperament made us unsuitable for membership. The fact that we have mounted the only serious attempt to escape the EU in its history - and succeeded - is testament to that.

Mr K 11-08-2020 07:45
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Is Brexit still going on? Well there's a surprise. Thought it was all straightforward, and deals with other countries easy peasy. Even the Brexiteers are now dissing the deal they all voted for. Reality is a cruel mistress.

Sephiroth 11-08-2020 07:55
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36046257)
Is Brexit still going on? Well there's a surprise. Thought it was all straightforward, and deals with other countries easy peasy. Even the Brexiteers are now dissing the deal they all voted for. Reality is a cruel mistress.
I understand the point you are making. But reaslly that is an exposé of the EU's intention to punish the UK for its decision tto leave the EU.

Of course it's not quite as pat as that. You are right, DD did explain that it should be 'easy peasy' to get a sensible trade deal - and so it should have been because we leave the EU in a fully aligned state. But he was taken in by his own mission and did not, in his public utterances, consider how difficult the EU would be. He should have known that and should have said so at the time.

Hugh 11-08-2020 08:01
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046259)
I understand the point you are making. But reaslly that is an exposé of the EU's intention to punish the UK for its decision tto leave the EU.

Of course it's not quite as pat as that. You are right, DD did explain that it should be 'easy peasy' to get a sensible trade deal - and so it should have been because we leave the EU in a fully aligned state. But he was taken in by his own mission and did not, in his public utterances, consider how difficult the EU would be. He should have known that and should have said so at the time.
Don’t forget that IDS felt the same, and spoke passionately in the HoC about how MPs didn’t need any more time to scrutinise the WA as it had had had plenty of time to be reviewed in depth, and it should just be signed off...

(Apparently he has now discovered some "fine print" he didn’t know about before...)

Sephiroth 11-08-2020 09:28
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36046260)
Don’t forget that IDS felt the same, and spoke passionately in the HoC about how MPs didn’t need any more time to scrutinise the WA as it had had had plenty of time to be reviewed in depth, and it should just be signed off...

(Apparently he has now discovered some "fine print" he didn’t know about before...)
Frankly, I think IDS should do one. The financial terms as I understand them seem perfectly reasonable to me.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...al-settlement/

Quote:
Broadly speaking, the financial settlement can be split into three components:

During the transition period, until the end of 2020, the UK will pay into the EU budget almost as if it were a Member State. The UK will also receive funding from EU programmes – such as structural funding.

EU annual budgets commit to some future spending without making payments to recipients at the time. The commitments will become payments in the future. The UK will contribute towards the EU’s outstanding commitments as at 31 December 2020. Recipients in the UK will also receive funding for outstanding commitments made to them.

The UK will share the cost of EU liabilities that exist at the end of 2020, and any materialising contingent liabilities (potential liabilities that may occur depending on the outcome of an uncertain event in the future) entered into before its withdrawal, and will receive back a share of some assets. The pensions of EU staff are likely to be the most significant liabilities for the UK, while the most significant item being returned to the UK is the capital it paid into the European Investment Bank.

Carth 11-08-2020 09:57
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36046257)
Is Brexit still going on? Well there's a surprise. Thought it was all straightforward, and deals with other countries easy peasy. Even the Brexiteers are now dissing the deal they all voted for. Reality is a cruel mistress.

Don't count me in that statement Mr K, I got what I wanted 100% - out of the EU :Yes:

It also doesn't bother me one little bit if we don't get any deals with them, I'll live with that. What others want, whether remain or leave, is not my concern as it's out of my hands ;)

mrmistoffelees 11-08-2020 10:12
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36046264)
Don't count me in that statement Mr K, I got what I wanted 100% - out of the EU :Yes:

It also doesn't bother me one little bit if we don't get any deals with them, I'll live with that. What others want, whether remain or leave, is not my concern as it's out of my hands ;)
And here in lies one of the biggest problems we face in a modern society 'I' instead of 'we'

Wishful thinking i guess.

Sephiroth 11-08-2020 10:22
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36046270)
And here in lies one of the biggest problems we face in a modern society 'I' instead of 'we'

Wishful thinking i guess.
52% of "Is" plus the GE result make up one big "we".

1andrew1 11-08-2020 10:31
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046273)
52% of "Is" plus the GE result make up one big "we".
You normally multiply fractions don't you?

---------- Post added at 10:31 ---------- Previous post was at 10:26 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046263)
Frankly, I think IDS should do one. The financial terms as I understand them seem perfectly reasonable to me.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...al-settlement/
I genuinely don't get IDS's motives here. Nothing is going unexpectedly with the Withdrawal Agreement from the Conservative Party's point of view.
Is he trying to undermine BoJo? is he ok?

Sephiroth 11-08-2020 10:35
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36046274)
You normally multiply fractions don't you?

---------- Post added at 10:31 ---------- Previous post was at 10:26 ----------


I<SNIP>

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
52% of "Is" plus the GE result make up one big "we".
The clue is in the word "plus". I suppose to satisfy pedantry, I could have said "52% of 'Is' plus the excess arising out of the GE make up one big 'we'.


Carth 11-08-2020 10:48
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36046270)
And here in lies one of the biggest problems we face in a modern society 'I' instead of 'we'

Wishful thinking i guess.
oh, and what do you suggest I (as in me myself) do to facilitate a deal with the EU, you know, as I'm just an ordinary commoner and not part of the negotiating team :D

I guess I could place adverts in every national & local newspaper, asking people to contact me stating what everyone wants from a deal . . and then post the most favoured outcome to the EU, telling them this is what we want or else bye bye :p:

mrmistoffelees 11-08-2020 11:41
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046273)
52% of "Is" plus the GE result make up one big "we".
I'll give you it's a 'we' but in return would you concede that to a degree it's a 'fragmented we' ;)

Sephiroth 11-08-2020 11:52
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36046284)
I'll give you it's a 'we' but in return would you concede that to a degree it's a 'fragmented we' ;)
Don't need to concede. Almost by definition it's fragmented.

The key is that democracy as a concept wasn't fragmented. The majority holds.

mrmistoffelees 11-08-2020 11:55
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046286)
Don't need to concede. Almost by definition it's fragmented.

The key is that democracy as a concept wasn't fragmented. The majority holds.
Quite, and just look at the crap storm it causes :D

Sephiroth 11-08-2020 12:04
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36046287)
Quite, and just look at the crap storm it causes :D
I think the crap storm is down to the unreasonableness of those among the 48% who only like one-sided democracy.

Criticism from that quarter of the Guvmin's handling of Brexit is to be expected - but the "I told you so" brigade and the whingers are, in some cases, well beyond the pale. I can think of one stand out in this thread (and it's not Mr. K!).

ianch99 11-08-2020 13:36
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
:angel:

1andrew1 11-08-2020 13:37
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Just for the record, I don't count myself as a whinger though I'm sure other may enjoy applying that label. :D

I accepted the result of the vote in 2016 but that doesn't mean that I forfeit my right to call elected representatives out and highlight the consequences.

Dave42 11-08-2020 13:43
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36046299)
Just for the record, I don't count myself as a whinger though I'm sure other may enjoy applying that label. :D

I accepted the result of the vote in 2016 but that doesn't mean that I forfeit my right to call elected representatives out and highlight the consequences.
exactly we fully accept result and we leave fully 1st January but doesn't mean we can't point out the lies and the consequences when they said there would be none

mrmistoffelees 11-08-2020 14:04
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36046299)
Just for the record, I don't count myself as a whinger though I'm sure other may enjoy applying that label. :D

I accepted the result of the vote in 2016 but that doesn't mean that I forfeit my right to call elected representatives out and highlight the consequences.
I'll hold my hands up and admit that up until recently, I didn't want to accept the result of the vote.

Now, if i'm being 100% honest whilst of course I'd like to see the UK succeed, there's a part of me that hopes that IF this goes horribly wrong that certain factions of society suffer and suffer greatly. (By this i don't mean people of the ilk such as the majority of CF Brexiteers who are capable of constructing a reasonable & logical argument)

Maggy 11-08-2020 14:16
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
I've moved on.This pandemic has and is doing it's worst to our economy and lives. What emerges of our economy afterwards will hopefully be robust enough to deal with whatever deal we get when leaving.Or don't depending if we crash out. It is what it is.

OLD BOY 11-08-2020 14:17
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36046257)
Is Brexit still going on? Well there's a surprise. Thought it was all straightforward, and deals with other countries easy peasy. Even the Brexiteers are now dissing the deal they all voted for. Reality is a cruel mistress.
Negotiations about the new trade deal were always going to be testy. I don't hear any government ministers saying this is difficult. The EU is just doing its usual '11th hour' thing.

I don't see many Brexiteers dissing the deal!

mrmistoffelees 11-08-2020 14:19
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36046312)
Negotiations about the new trade deal were always going to be testy. I don't hear any government ministers saying this is difficult. The EU is just doing its usual '11th hour' thing.

Who is dissing the deal apart from remainers?

You can replace testy with whiffy in the UK, Japan deal.... :)

1andrew1 11-08-2020 14:26
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36046264)
Don't count me in that statement Mr K, I got what I wanted 100% - out of the EU :Yes:
Except for viewers in Northern Ireland. ;)

Mr K 12-08-2020 18:39
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-new-zealands/

Quote:
UK not 'match fit' for post-Brexit trade talks, claims New Zealand's deputy prime minister
Britain attempting multiple Brexit trade deals at once is like a cricketer who hasn't played in 30 years attempting to win the Ashes, New Zealand's deputy prime minister said on Wednesday.

New Zealand has blamed Britain for slow progress towards a free trade deal and accused it of not being "match fit" for international negotiations.
Not match fit ??

Tell us something we don't know !

Mad Max 13-08-2020 21:43
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36046443)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-new-zealands/



Not match fit ??

Tell us something we don't know !

Are we trading in sheep with NZ.....:D

pip08456 14-08-2020 00:02
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36046573)
Are we trading in sheep with NZ.....:D
Shhhhhhhhhh, we've had New Zealand lamb for years, don't let the EU know though.

Hugh 14-08-2020 09:27
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36046591)
Shhhhhhhhhh, we've had New Zealand lamb for years, don't let the EU know though.
It's OK - they already know... ;)

https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/fr...ment-overview/
Quote:
Partnering with European Union countries represents a huge opportunity for New Zealand exporters, opening up a market with a combined population of half a billion people who consume about 13 per cent of our overall exports.

Two-way trade between New Zealand and the EU (excluding the UK) is worth NZ$18 billion annually.

The EU is New Zealand's largest trading partner with which we do not yet have a free trade agreement.

For 2019, New Zealand annual goods exports to the EU were worth NZ$5.3 billion and services exports are worth NZ$3.7 billion (including the UK).

Our main goods exports to the EU are wine, fruit and meat.
https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/countrie...nited-kingdom/
Quote:
Exports to the UK $1.6 billion Top exports: meat, beverages, fruit
NZ already exports more than twice as much to the EU (even if you take the UK figure out) than they do the UK (Goods exports to the EU NZ$5.3 billion minus goods exported to UK NZ$1.6 billion = NZ$3.7 billion)

Sephiroth 14-08-2020 09:33
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
They will still want to protect their trade with the UK and, theoretically at least, the EU now has less buying power without the UK than before. Any leverage there?

jonbxx 14-08-2020 09:40
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
It looks like the UK and EU agreed to split the 'duty free' allowance (tariff rate quota) for NZ lamb equally between them which reflects the amount of business NZ does with the respective parties.

This however has gone down like a cup of cold sick with NZ farmers - https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/...sticking-point

Sephiroth 14-08-2020 09:50
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36046607)
It looks like the UK and EU agreed to split the 'duty free' allowance (tariff rate quota) for NZ lamb equally between them which reflects the amount of business NZ does with the respective parties.

This however has gone down like a cup of cold sick with NZ farmers - https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/...sticking-point
The UK should take advantage of this and sew up a trade deal with NZ. I hope that with this now coming into prominence, Truss's department can hire a professional and get this into gear.

1andrew1 14-08-2020 10:01
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046608)
The UK should take advantage of this and sew up a trade deal with NZ. I hope that with this now coming into prominence, Truss's department can hire a professional and get this into gear.
Truss is too academic and head in the sky to run such a hands-on department. That's part of the problem.

Hugh 14-08-2020 12:29
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36046605)
They will still want to protect their trade with the UK and, theoretically at least, the EU now has less buying power without the UK than before. Any leverage there?
No leverage at all, only twice the export trade...

Meanwhile....

OLD BOY 17-08-2020 19:32
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36046609)
Truss is too academic and head in the sky to run such a hands-on department. That's part of the problem.
Well, this is Liz Truss's take on the present position on trade deals. She sounds a bit more optimistic than you, Andrew. I wouldn't write her off just yet.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...h-bin-history/

[EXTRACT]

We are in a series of negotiations with the US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand to strike new free trade agreements and lower tariffs for our exporters. Talks in all four are progressing well.

Round four of US negotiations starts soon, where we’ll talk directly about tariffs. On Japan, we have consensus on the major elements of a deal that will go beyond the agreement the EU has with Japan.

We aim to have agreement in principle by the end of August. Round two of talks with Australia starts in mid-September, and the second round of discussions with New Zealand starts a month later.

These deals are an important step towards accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which will hitch Britain to one of the world’s fastest-growing parts of the globe.

CPTPP reduces tariffs on 95 per cent of goods between members – but also sets high standards in areas such as digital trade and data.

Membership will help put Britain at the centre of a network of free trade agreements where parties treat each other fairly, play by the rules, and help make us a hub for businesses trading with the rest of the world.

Ultimately, all these agreements will bring down tariffs for our producers. The US deal could boost trade by £15 billion and wipe out almost half a billion pounds of tariffs – benefiting Scotland, the Midlands and the North East the most – helping to level-up our country.

They will also help defend British businesses, including our brilliant whisky producers, against the effects of protectionism by guaranteeing market access in a period where trade barriers across the world are going up.

At a time of rising global insecurity, in an era of creeping protectionism and in the midst of a global pandemic, I firmly believe free and fair trade remains the best way forward for the world and for Britain.

1andrew1 20-08-2020 13:49
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Asylum seekers to remain in UK from 2021.

Quote:
EU negotiators have rejected a British request for a migration pact that would allow the government to return asylum seekers to other European countries.

When the Brexit transition period expires on 31 December, the government will lose the right to transfer refugees and migrants to the EU country in which they arrived, a cornerstone of the European asylum system known as the Dublin regulation.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...asylum-seekers

papa smurf 20-08-2020 14:05
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047155)
Asylum seekers to remain in UK from 2021.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...asylum-seekers
It's quite troubling that so many people feel the need to escape from the EU to a better life.

1andrew1 20-08-2020 14:11
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36047157)
It's quite troubling that so many people feel the need to escape from the EU to a better life.
If it troubles you, perhaps you will feel better by venturing to the channel in your boat and escorting them to a better life in Great Britain. ;)

papa smurf 20-08-2020 14:19
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047158)
If it troubles you, perhaps you will feel better by venturing to the channel in your boat and escorting them to a better life in Great Britain. ;)
I would never use my boat to assist illegal immigration even though the conditions in the EU must be so diabolical that they risk their lives in unsuitable craft to get here,the EU should up it's game and help these people who have fled to their borders and sought asylum, not turn a blind eye to them making suicide runs across the channel.

Sephiroth 20-08-2020 14:40
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
I'll do an Andrew here. It's not surprising that once we are fully out of the EU that they won't accept the return of migrants.

End of doing an Andrew.

Typical piece of EU lawlessness. There must be some sort of International law on this?

1andrew1 20-08-2020 14:54
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047163)
There must be some sort of International law on this?
I think the Penny might be starting to drop? ;) What did the Romans ever do for us?

papa smurf 20-08-2020 15:15
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047164)
I think the Penny might be starting to drop? ;) What did the Romans ever do for us?
They went back home.:)

Sephiroth 20-08-2020 15:16
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36047168)
They went back home.:)
... and became Italians!

Mad Max 20-08-2020 18:43
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047169)
... and became Italians!

:D

heero_yuy 20-08-2020 19:08
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Could be worse, they might have become Belgians. :erm:

1andrew1 20-08-2020 22:18
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
No surprise to see Nigel Farage toasting Steve Bannon for helping trigger Article 50. Will he come to Steve Bannon's aid now?
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ste...build-the-wall
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/s...57621587800064

1andrew1 21-08-2020 09:24
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047163)
There must be some sort of International law on this?
Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that signed the 1951 Geneva Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim. The core principle is non-refoulement, which asserts that a refugee should not be returned to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom. This is now considered a rule of customary international law.
The Dublin Convention which the UK is leaving is the EU one which aims to "determine rapidly the Member State responsible [for an asylum claim]"and provides for the transfer of an asylum seeker to that Member State.

Carth 21-08-2020 09:54
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
So what you're implying Andrew, is that these 'refugees or asylum seekers' are deciding not to apply for asylum in the Countries they pass through to reach the beaches of France?


When does an asylum seeker coming from 'a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom' not become an asylum seeker?

1andrew1 21-08-2020 10:05
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36047207)
So what you're implying Andrew, is that these 'refugees or asylum seekers' are deciding not to apply for asylum in the Countries they pass through to reach the beaches of France?

When does an asylum seeker coming from 'a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom' not become an asylum seeker?
It looks to me like they are choosing to apply for asylum in the UK as is their right under the Geneva Convention. The ruling about the first country they arrived in is an interpretation of the Dublin Convention which we are leaving. It is a slender minority that come to the UK, most stay in the EU. More details here https://fullfact.org/immigration/asy...uk-and-europe/

Carth 21-08-2020 10:16
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
aah, that maybe explains why the French are now asking the UK to grant asylum to people who aren't even in the UK.

Sephiroth 21-08-2020 10:40
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047209)
It looks to me like they are choosing to apply for asylum in the UK as is their right under the Geneva Convention. The ruling about the first country they arrived in is an interpretation of the Dublin Convention which we are leaving. It is a slender minority that come to the UK, most stay in the EU. More details here https://fullfact.org/immigration/asy...uk-and-europe/
So, do we have a sort of "Mexico" situation here?

People seeking asylum from oppression, should not be coming to the UK from the EU.

People seeking to enter the UK as economic migrants should not be allowed into the UK from any source.

It follows, therefore, that the UK must institute measures to prevent the arrival of migrants from the EU. Easier said than done and this has nothing to do with the Geneva Convention unless they actually get here.

Pierre 21-08-2020 12:16
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047204)
Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that signed the 1951 Geneva Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim. The core principle is non-refoulement, which asserts that a refugee should not be returned to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom. This is now considered a rule of customary international law.
The Dublin Convention which the UK is leaving is the EU one which aims to "determine rapidly the Member State responsible [for an asylum claim]"and provides for the transfer of an asylum seeker to that Member State.
Bad news for them then, as under the Dublin act we would just send them back to France/ Italy/Greece etc.

Whereas after we have left it will be back to Sudan or wherever

Dave42 21-08-2020 12:44
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
oven ready deal yeah right

1andrew1 21-08-2020 13:51
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36047226)
Bad news for them then, as under the Dublin act we would just send them back to France/ Italy/Greece etc.

Whereas after we have left it will be back to Sudan or wherever
Presumably we can send them all back to the first EU country they arrived in at the moment.

From next year, it is only those who don't qualify for asylum who will be deported. So there will be more asylum cases processed in the UK.

Sephiroth 21-08-2020 13:58
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36047226)
Bad news for them then, as under the Dublin act we would just send them back to France/ Italy/Greece etc.

Whereas after we have left it will be back to Sudan or wherever
... who'll tell us to get stuffed.

Carth 21-08-2020 14:21
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047230)
Presumably we can send them all back to the first EU country they arrived in at the moment.

From next year, it is only those who don't qualify for asylum who will be deported. So there will be more asylum cases processed in the UK.

Explain again how one qualifies for Asylum, I'd worry if I was moaning at the wrong people ;)

Sephiroth 21-08-2020 15:04
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047230)
Presumably we can send them all back to the first EU country they arrived in at the moment.

From next year, it is only those who don't qualify for asylum who will be deported. So there will be more asylum cases processed in the UK.
Where to? They'll not have any documents.

1andrew1 21-08-2020 16:59
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36047236)
Explain again how one qualifies for Asylum, I'd worry if I was moaning at the wrong people ;)
I don't think I've ever explained it in the first place. Here's the UK Government's take https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/eligibility

---------- Post added at 16:59 ---------- Previous post was at 16:58 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047240)
Where to? They'll not have any documents.
You may have a point there!

OLD BOY 21-08-2020 19:37
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
I think maybe we need to introduce sharks to the North Sea. That would make them think twice. Or maybe invite rocket man Kim over for a bit of target practice.

nomadking 21-08-2020 19:43
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36047227)
oven ready deal yeah right
That referred to the Transitional Deal ONLY.:rolleyes: That is done and dusted and IN PLACE.

1andrew1 23-08-2020 11:21
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Terrifying scoop from The Sun on Sunday. Shows why we need to extend the transisition period.

Quote:
The Sun has seen the doomsday classified document designed to kickstart ministers into a major planning operation to see off disaster. It reveals:

- One in 20 Town Halls could go bust in a second Covid wave, sparking social care chaos.
- The economic impact of the virus and Brexit could cause public disorder, shortages and price hikes.
- Troops may have to be drafted on to the streets to help the police in the worst-case scenario — 1,500 are already on stand by.
- Social distancing measures and masks will have to continue until 2021 regardless.
- Supplies of food and fuel are all under threat this Christmas if Dover becomes blocked.
- Downing Street is pushing hard for a trade deal but is making contingency plans for an “unruly” exit from the EU transition period at the end of December.

With trade talks looking set to go the wire, there is a risk they collapse — putting up trade barriers overnight on 1 January.

In that scenario planners believe France will force “mandatory controls on UK goods from day one” and between 40 and 70 per cent of hauliers travelling across the Channel may not be ready for this.

That could see flow between Dover and Calais down 45 per cent for three months, triggering long queues of HGVs in Kent.
It's not so great for those living in UK dependencies:
Quote:
The outlook is also bleak for Gibraltar and the Channel Islands, both reliant on imports.
Gibraltar could be cut off from Spain and economically crippled and the Channel Islands may need airdrops of medicines and food.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/124745...s-second-wave/

Mr K 23-08-2020 11:29
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047445)
Terrifying scoop from The Sun on Sunday. Shows why we need to extend the transisition period.



It's not so great for those living in UK dependencies:


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/124745...s-second-wave/
The Sun changed its tune, wonder what game it is playing? It has a history of changing sides when it can see the way things are going.

papa smurf 23-08-2020 11:37
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Nice to see project fear is being rehashed,i'm 52% certain we are still leaving.

Sephiroth 23-08-2020 11:41
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Andrew had to stoop to the Sun for his tale of woe.

Pierre 23-08-2020 11:43
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
The Sun has seen the doomsday classified document designed to kickstart ministers into a major planning operation to see off disaster. It reveals:

- One in 20 Town Halls could go bust in a second Covid wave, sparking social care chaos.
- The economic impact of the virus and Brexit could cause public disorder, shortages and price hikes.
- Troops may have to be drafted on to the streets to help the police in the worst-case scenario — 1,500 are already on stand by.
- Social distancing measures and masks will have to continue until 2021 regardless.
- Supplies of food and fuel are all under threat this Christmas if Dover becomes blocked.
- Downing Street is pushing hard for a trade deal but is making contingency plans for an “unruly” exit from the EU transition period at the end of December.

With trade talks looking set to go the wire, there is a risk they collapse — putting up trade barriers overnight on 1 January.

In that scenario planners believe France will force “mandatory controls on UK goods from day one” and between 40 and 70 per cent of hauliers travelling across the Channel may not be ready for this.

That could see flow between Dover and Calais down 45 per cent for three months, triggering long queues of HGVs in Kent.
Quote:
The outlook is also bleak for Gibraltar and the Channel Islands, both reliant on imports.
Gibraltar could be cut off from Spain and economically crippled and the Channel Islands may need airdrops of medicines and food.
So from all of that there are two lines of information that are not just speculation.

I think I’ll still sleep easy tonight.

1andrew1 23-08-2020 11:49
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36047447)
The Sun changed its tune, wonder what game it is playing? It has a history of changing sides when it can see the way things are going.
You're right, The Sun will jump ship if sees it's heading towards an iceberg as it will only lose readers if it doesn't.

This could though be a deliberate leak to prepare the public for the worst.

No wonder the Government's faffed around with the exams situation; its capacity has been consumed with this horror show.

To me this all goes back to Boris chosing loyalty over ability.

---------- Post added at 11:47 ---------- Previous post was at 11:46 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047449)
Andrew had to stoop to the Sun for his tale of woe.
I think you meant scoop and not stoop. ;) Credit where it's due - it is indeed a big scoop for the paper, and it's setting the news agenda.

denphone 23-08-2020 11:50
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047449)
Andrew had to stoop to the Sun for his tale of woe.
You want to have looked at the Mail lately that great bastion of Middle England sentiment.;)

1andrew1 23-08-2020 11:53
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36047451)
So from all of that there are two lines of information that are not just speculation.

I think I’ll still sleep easy tonight.
That's because it's not a GCSE history text book but a forward-looking document.

Pierre 23-08-2020 12:11
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047457)
That's because it's not a GCSE history text book but a forward-looking document.
Still speculative.

Change the could’s and may’s to will’s and have’s and it may be an article to take notice of.

Carth 23-08-2020 18:25
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047445)
Terrifying scoop from The Sun on Sunday. Shows why we need to extend the transisition period.
Found it difficult not to chuckle at the 'scoop' from the Sun . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047457)
That's because it's not a GCSE history text book but a forward-looking document.
But that one had me laughing out loud, the cat still won't come near me :D

OLD BOY 23-08-2020 20:05
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047453)
You're right, The Sun will jump ship if sees it's heading towards an iceberg as it will only lose readers if it doesn't.

This could though be a deliberate leak to prepare the public for the worst.
I'll get my order in now for the Christmas turkey then.:rolleyes:.

1andrew1 23-08-2020 21:56
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047499)
I'll get my order in now for the Christmas turkey then.:rolleyes:.
Would be a better use of your energy to lobby Redwood for an extension.

Hugh 23-08-2020 23:11
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047505)
Would be a better use of your energy to lobby Redwood for an extension.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1598220675

OLD BOY 24-08-2020 07:59
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047505)
Would be a better use of your energy to lobby Redwood for an extension.
An extension will not get us any further. There has been quite sufficient time to get an agreement. The EU is just trying to wear us down and an extension will play into their hands. We're done with that game. We'll either get an agreement or we won't, but it would be amazing if the EU decided to shoot itself in the foot.

Of course, negotiations could be extended provided it did not prevent us from going it alone on the date already set. Perhaps we will get more reality into the situation negotiating as an independent country, underlining the fact that we no longer accept EU rules and asserting they will get no fishing rights whatsoever until a deal is done, etc, etc.

Sephiroth 24-08-2020 08:29
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047513)
An extension will not get us any further. There has been quite sufficient time to get an agreement. The EU is just trying to wear us down and an extension will play into their hands. We're done with that game. We'll either get an agreement or we won't, but it would be amazing if the EU decided to shoot itself in the foot.

Of course, negotiations could be extended provided it did not prevent us from going it alone on the date already set. Perhaps we will get more reality into the situation negotiating as an independent country, underlining the fact that we no longer accept EU rules and asserting they will get no fishing rights whatsoever until a deal is done, etc, etc.
Pretty much what I think.

1andrew1 24-08-2020 10:05
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047513)
An extension will not get us any further. There has been quite sufficient time to get an agreement. The EU is just trying to wear us down and an extension will play into their hands. We're done with that game. We'll either get an agreement or we won't, but it would be amazing if the EU decided to shoot itself in the foot.

Of course, negotiations could be extended provided it did not prevent us from going it alone on the date already set. Perhaps we will get more reality into the situation negotiating as an independent country, underlining the fact that we no longer accept EU rules and asserting they will get no fishing rights whatsoever until a deal is done, etc, etc.
Despite your previous confidence about multi-tasking the Government's shown itself to be incapable of handling the pandemic or Brexit effectively. Johnson promised a deal in July and the world-beating app in June. he's delivered on neither. Even Conservative Party supporters on this forum have stepped forward to acknowledge the Government's regrettable failings in handling the Coronavirus.

The Government needs to focus on the pandemic this year and can then focus on getting the best deal possible with the EU next year.

Of course, if we fully left the EU this year we would still have to negotiate tons of small deals with the EU in future years. But from a position of weakness and with reduced bandwidth as we deal with the issues of no-deal and minimal goodwill from the EU.

At the current rate, Johnson will just roll over again and concede to the EU at the last minute, as he did when he threw the DUP under the bus. Even he's not daft enough to entertain no deal but doubtless will have looked the other way when the no-deal document was leaked as it suggests to the EU we are serious about no-deal. His last card when negotiating with the EU.

Carth 24-08-2020 10:37
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
In all seriousness, I would think that giving in to the EU and the 'Remainers' shouting for an extension would be political suicide.

Yes the Gov't are on shaky ground with some of the virus decisions taken, but that's a fluctuating mess in most countries.

1andrew1 24-08-2020 11:51
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36047524)
In all seriousness, I would think that giving in to the EU and the 'Remainers' shouting for an extension would be political suicide.

Yes the Gov't are on shaky ground with some of the virus decisions taken, but that's a fluctuating mess in most countries.
The EU's not asking for an extension and we're all leavers now. It's not the 2016 contest all over again, it's about putting us in a better decision to negotiate and handle Covid, not giving into anyone.
We rank poorly with most of our Western European peers for Covid 19. Ireland's had an app for months, for example.

Sephiroth 24-08-2020 12:11
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047537)
The EU's not asking for an extension and we're all leavers now. It's not the 2016 contest all over again, it's about putting us in a better decision to negotiate and handle Covid, not giving into anyone.
We rank poorly with most of our Western European peers for Covid 19. Ireland's had an app for months, for example.
You're mixing it all up, though I understand that you purport to think that the government is not sufficiently competent to handle both Brexit and CV adequately.

But the political dimensions is very important. Any extension would unnecessarily shuffle even more dosh the way of the EU, on their terms and would strengthen the EU's negotiating position. That's enough ground for not extending. Indeed, going to the wire is a basic principle for this type of negotiation.

GrimUpNorth 24-08-2020 12:39
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047540)
You're mixing it all up, though I understand that you purport to think that the government is not sufficiently competent to handle both Brexit and CV adequately.

But the political dimensions is very important. Any extension would unnecessarily shuffle even more dosh the way of the EU, on their terms and would strengthen the EU's negotiating position. That's enough ground for not extending. Indeed, going to the wire is a basic principle for this type of negotiation.
Are you implying you believe the EU will 'fold' at the last minute? If so why, and what makes you think the UK wont blink first? At the end of the day there are plenty of other (none British) fish in the sea and if the EU stop buying our fish is Borris going to suggest that the government should 'let us eat fish' (in his best Marie-Antoinette voice)? :shocked:

1andrew1 24-08-2020 12:44
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047540)
You're mixing it all up, though I understand that you purport to think that the government is not sufficiently competent to handle both Brexit and CV adequately.

But the political dimensions is very important. Any extension would unnecessarily shuffle even more dosh the way of the EU, on their terms and would strengthen the EU's negotiating position. That's enough ground for not extending. Indeed, going to the wire is a basic principle for this type of negotiation.
I think the evidence has shown and indeed you have acknowledged that the government has not handled the Covid 19 crisis as well as it might. Track and trace, exams fiasco, PPE purchasing, non-working app, late lockdown, nursing homes scandal, high excess death rate...just one of these alone proves the point.

We can't win a good deal with the EU by going to the wire as the balance of power is held by the EU, as it is eight times larger than us. Only the EU can win by this tactic as we have more to lose so will blink first. We saw it with Ireland. The amount of money paid to the EU in 2021 would be outweighed by the disruption and reduced trade. Either pay more as universal credit and last-minute government contracts to airlift medicines and food and face Sir Keir in power in No 10 in 2024 or pay less to the EU and get a good, chaos-free deal with a chance of re-election.

Hugh 24-08-2020 12:46
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047540)
You're mixing it all up, though I understand that you purport to think that the government is not sufficiently competent to handle both Brexit and CV adequately.

But the political dimensions is very important. Any extension would unnecessarily shuffle even more dosh the way of the EU, on their terms and would strengthen the EU's negotiating position. That's enough ground for not extending. Indeed, going to the wire is a basic principle for this type of negotiation.
It really isn’t - that’s just willy-waving, rather than negotiating...

Sephiroth 24-08-2020 13:29
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 36047544)
Are you implying you believe the EU will 'fold' at the last minute? If so why, and what makes you think the UK wont blink first? At the end of the day there are plenty of other (none British) fish in the sea and if the EU stop buying our fish is Borris going to suggest that the government should 'let us eat fish' (in his best Marie-Antoinette voice)? :shocked:
No idea who will blink first. But it has to be done - we can't be subject to EU jurisdiction and their demands on fish are unreasonable.

1andrew1 24-08-2020 13:47
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36047547)
It really isn’t - that’s just willy-waving, rather than negotiating...
Exactly, we've moved on from fantasy football to fantasy negotiating!

---------- Post added at 13:47 ---------- Previous post was at 13:46 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36047551)
No idea who will blink first. But it has to be done - we can't be subject to EU jurisdiction and their demands on fish are unreasonable.
We can't afford to find out the hard way and BoJo knows this. Extension or capitulation.

OLD BOY 24-08-2020 14:08
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047537)
The EU's not asking for an extension and we're all leavers now. It's not the 2016 contest all over again, it's about putting us in a better decision to negotiate and handle Covid, not giving into anyone.
We rank poorly with most of our Western European peers for Covid 19. Ireland's had an app for months, for example.
Except you, Andrew! We have, in fact, continued to negotiate, but the EU is standing firm with their red lines, as are we! Neither side is going to move until the eleventh hour, and moving that eleventh hour will achieve nothing.

When the EU realise we are not giving in, because we will be an independent nation, it will have to agree or lose the fishing rights that they want, and increased tariffs will result in less demand for their products.

As far as coronavirus is concerned, that is irrelevant and the constant chant of Britain being behind the curve is premature and nonsensical. It is far too early to judge who got the policy right and who failed. Those countries who shut everyone away earlier have been congratulating themselves on their foresight. What if they now get an aggressive second wave and we avoid it? Who would have had the correct policies in place then?

As for the casualty statistics, these vary significantly in terms of accuracy. We've been recording everything. Other countries are only recording certain coronavirus casualties (eg those who have died in hospital). It is naive and unprofessional to compare figures in this way when all countries have different recording criteria.

---------- Post added at 14:08 ---------- Previous post was at 14:06 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36047553)
Exactly, we've moved on from fantasy football to fantasy negotiating!

---------- Post added at 13:47 ---------- Previous post was at 13:46 ----------


We can't afford to find out the hard way and BoJo knows this. Extension or capitulation.
That is not a Brexiteer's view of the position.

Sephiroth 24-08-2020 14:29
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36047547)
It really isn’t - that’s just willy-waving, rather than negotiating...
Just on one side?

1andrew1 24-08-2020 14:37
Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047556)
That is not a Brexiteer's view of the position.
Brexiters don't have homogenous views.

---------- Post added at 14:37 ---------- Previous post was at 14:33 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36047556)
Except you, Andrew!
A nice thought but a fantasy - I acknowledge we're leaving but I also acknowledge our incompetence on managing Covid 19 and the need for more negotiating time. It's not too early to talk about the app fiasco, the care homes fiasco, the exams results fiasco...I could go on but to save your blushes I shan't.
Fishing rights aren't key and can be sorted with a phased withdrawal of rights and cash. A level playing field is the prize for the EU.


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