Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

This ^ ^ ^

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Sounds too cheery. Need a lockdown restriction to outlaw both at the same time. :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/sta...33408570798081

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

No real surprise. Only going to get wider if there’s no trade deal with the EU.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Even a Canada-style deal with will impact negatively on Scotland in terms of the increased costs of doing business with the EU. And, we've barely started on trade deals yet for the rest of the World.
Not the most relaxing time to work in the spirits sector in Scotland, I would imagine. This will only feed through into such polling.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

16-24: 79%
25-34: 68%
35-44: 70%
45-54: 55%
55-64: 57%
65+: 40%

Source: Ipsos Mori, 2-9 October.

Interesting figure for 35-44. Do I see a present day 40 year old becoming more in favour of the UK by the time they are 50, or 60?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Perhaps we should ask Wee Krankie where she would have got the money from to help businesses and individuals to survive during the lockdown if Scotland was independent. If the Scots were actually understanding that the level of support they received was only possible because they were part of the UK, they might conclude differently.

There is no financial case for an independent Scotland. It’s all emotion.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Is there much of a downside for England from Scottish independence?
Erecting a hard border would be the main issue.


Can we have those billions back, that we sent to Scotland for Covid matters?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Where did Comrade Rishi get it?

Scottish tax receipts presumably, and borrowing. Roughly the same as any other country in the world.

This flawed unionist mantra is based on flawed unionist calculations - and will presumably be rejected with the contempt it deserves when Indyref 2 happens.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

From my Grandchildren ( when they’re born) Let’s hope there’s some kind of economic boom sometime around the 2050’s.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That's good because I'm paying off the debts accumulated by the generation who sold off everything and have nothing but the hollow shell of a state to show for it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I think maybe you should go over the math again.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Scottish tax receipts are unknown. GERS gets discredited every year as an estimate. An estimate that relies on HMRC apportioning tax receipts to Scotland in a way that's simply impossible to calculate accurately. VAT for one.

Neither does it reflect the ability of Scotland to vary it's tax receipts. Maybe something like Sweden - raising public expenditure to 50% of GDP, raising some taxes to support it and having a happier society overall. High levels of public trust between Government and the people. A healthcare system that wouldn't readily be overwhelmed by Covid. It could really be something to aspire to...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

All paid for by scotland's national pastime, swilling buckfast;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Almost infinite tax revenue there in the Central Belt.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

When you're running a deficit the size of Scotland's, borrowing is more difficult and much more expensive. Certain EU countries LOST market access to borrowing, eg Greece, Ireland. So every other country in the world CANNOT always borrow freely. :rolleyes:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I believe what they have to show for it is.......a nation, hollow or not. As it was 2no. World Wars that near bankrupted us. The 1st doing the most damage, followed by the Great Depression and then the 2nd.

I’m not sure the alternative, certainly 2nd time around the 1st we shouldn’t have been involved in, would have been conducive For anyone and considering the alternative was certainly worth the money.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Again this is based on UK Government apportioning tax receipts to Scotland in a manner that cannot genuinely be done due to the complexities of some taxes. VAT being one of the biggest challenges.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

---------- Post added at 20:28 ---------- Previous post was at 20:27 ----------

I like your thinking

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well those Scots, Blair Brown, and Darling were happy with it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Hmmm. I'm not sure selling off every meaningful state asset chasing a low tax economy was totally unavoidable - certainly the Scandanavian countries have taken a different approach and seem happy enough. Plenty of assets, a happy population.

We've got a miserable population, trying to ensure that misery transcends to future generations, I'm guessing because the national psyche has a sense of missed opportunity and denial. However, that's I'm sure beyond the scope of the Scottish independence thread.

---------- Post added at 20:30 ---------- Previous post was at 20:29 ----------

Give me their wages and pension pots and I'll vote to stay. I'll even make after dinner speeches on the subject for thousands a go. I do a great Mr T impersonation too.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That ALSO means nobody truly can claim that the deficit is actually lower.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

All countries fund everything through tax receipts and borrowing - that stands to reason.

It's also true to say that GERS doesn't reflect what that amount would be. So the two statements I made aren't as contradictory as they appear.

---------- Post added at 20:37 ---------- Previous post was at 20:35 ----------

It certainly needs better work on the matter than GERS.

I will say though that GERS is an age old argument - predates 2014. This line of argument isn't going to be 'news' to the 58%.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They don't all fund it by borrowing. As I pointed out, in the recent past even EU countries have been unable to borrow. They had to be propped up by the EU, so who would be expected to pick up Scotland's tab?
And what if any adjustment of the GERS figures led to a higher deficit? What exactly is Scotland producing, that produces the required massive missing tax income? Can't be oil as that is easily separated.
Have the SNP come up with what they consider to be the true figures? Or do they simply complain because they don't like the answer?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That is not what indebted later generations as you alluded to, it was the costs of two wars that I explained.

The “State Assets”, would they be the assets they robbed from the private sector?

Hey, the assets are still there. All the state has to do is go a thieve them again from the people that own them.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'd be hugely interested to read on how the mass privatisations of the 1980s and 1990s were all companies that previously existed in the private sector. But I think that's for another thread.

Generations are indebted because of the generations who went before them and the political choices to not address the debt and pass it down. Oddly, the generation that benefited the most from selling state assets wants to bypass responsibility for the debts it didn't address. Completely unsurprising, but masquerading this as a sincere or noble duty to 'balance the books' is laughable.

---------- Post added at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:53 ----------

The concept of European Monetary Union restricts the ability of single member states, yes, that's because these countries don't have the full range of fiscal powers due to handing them over as part of joining the Euro.

That doesn't defeat the general premise that all state funding comes from taxation or borrowing. Or selling off the state assets I suppose to put coal miners on the dole!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The EU DIDN'T restrict the borrowing of those countries.:rolleyes: All the EU would be able to do is "fine" those countries.

The bond markets wouldn't buy their debt, NOBODY would lend them anything.
Link

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Cannot believe anyone can say Yes , just because Nicola is on the TV every day, I will never say yes to this question. God help us if they do, as I am too old to move to another country,

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Phones were always government owned, post office etc, granted.

British Rail - formed from private rail companies from 1948.

British Leyland - formed from private car companies. 1975

Electricity - National Grid and Regional DNO’s - The Electricity Act 1947 (repealed 1989) merged 625 electricity companies to be vested in twelve area electricity boards whilst the generation and 132 kV National Grid were vested with the British Electricity Authority.

Water - initially private enterprises but quickly brought into public ownership in the mid-late 1800’s. Not a bad thing at the time.

Coal - National coal board - formed from private coal companies in 1946.

Gas - formed of private gas companies in 1948

Steel - formed of private companies in 1949, unnationalised in 1952, renationalised in 1967.

So really the only one is BT, which was government owned from inception being part of the Royal Mail.

Happy for you to prove me wrong.

That said, given the time and how important it was at that time....water And sanitation probably best run by the authorities. So you can have that too.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Scotland-based Brexit voters against Scottish independence:
If you knew what you know now about the increase in support for Scottish independence; encouraged by Brexit; leading to a risk of Scottish independence and likely re-joining of the EU by Scotland in the future, would you have still voted Leave?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Almost all of those in the national interest and worthy of nationalisation. Only cars appear to exist in a genuinely competitive market. The rest are oligopolies, so consumers don’t benefit from perfect equilibrium in pricing.

---------- Post added at 22:14 ---------- Previous post was at 22:14 ----------

Max? :D

Edit apologies - Chris too.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Great swerve, worthy of Beckham, but All very not relevant in the slightest.

Well they all did exist (apart from BT) in the private sector and the only one I’ll give you in national interest is water, and only due to the time period.

My point being, across the several recent posts, is that the State creates nothing. Anything the state has is Either stolen from or gifted by it’s Citizens.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It’s palpably untrue that the state creates nothing, and a fundamental flaw in your ideology. Which I guess explains the inability to understand an effective coronavirus response - it requires everything you loathe.

I’ll accept though that taxation does fund it, so it does come from the citizens. But it creates what citizens and private enterprise cannot alone. Large scale projects that require common purpose, common goals, and a vision beyond the stock price or profit margin in the next 3-5 years.

We’ve moved on somewhat from Scottish independence, however at least we’ve agreed that Britain is the hollowed out shell of a once-great state. It’s little wonder people of Scotland see little value in clinging to it, especially if your opinion/ideology continues to prevail in England.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Totally agree with you mate, can you imagine the moon howlers that wee nippy has in her government trying to run Scotland, a terrifying thought indeed.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Still Leave.
Still No.

Thanks for asking. :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Who else and where? You are the only one who has stated that.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Correct.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I’ve simply inferred from the inability to seemingly pay World War Two debts without simply passing it down from one generation to the next. Despite a mass sell off of state assets. The role, purpose and effectiveness of the state both domestically and internationally are hugely diminished.

It’s almost as if before the 1950s there was something else to extract wealth from that’s no longer there.

Spoiler: Empire.

I still don’t see anything selling the Union to yes voters.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The downside? That would be working out how exactly we would spend all that extra money in the government coffers without having the Barnett formula to suck us dry.

The erection of borders seems to be an EU speciality.

---------- Post added at 20:01 ---------- Previous post was at 19:53 ----------

If Scotland has so much financial promise, why are we subsidising them to the tune of £1,000 per capita? How would Scotland afford their health and social care services without it? How would they replace lost income from depreciating oil? There are many, many questions about the ability of Scotland to stand on its own two feet, and no-one seems to have any answers.

But hold on...jfman, you’re an economist! How could this work? Wee Krankie is desperate to know because she is becoming highly embarrassed by having to keep changing the subject.

Or should I have said ‘embarrassing’?:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If any of these things were actually true Old Boy I don't know why you are upset about seperation.

Had you read and understood the post you quoted it's impossible to say the extent, if at all, Scotland is subsidised. You can only quote the Barnett formula. A UK Government creation based on UK government expenditure.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Link

The gap is huge, it's several billion. You're talking about a supposed missing extra 20%(£13bn) in revenue. If that was true, it couldn't go unnoticed and unidentified.:rolleyes:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I’m not at all upset. I’m rubbing my hands with expectation, actually.

I think you are trying to be clever, but we see through these answers. Because they are not answers at all, you are deflecting the questions. What I said is that the Barnett formula is worth £1,000 to every man, woman and child in Scotland. Scotland will have to find how to make up that loss if it left the UK as well as find the funding they need to set up their own government.

That’s a lot of money. And yet no-one seems to have a clue as to how to bridge the gap. However, it is one big financial burden we won’t have to bear in what remains of the UK. I say, what’s not to like?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Scottish Government statisticians that rely on UK Government figures, often estimates, of tax receipts that it'd be almost impossible to accurately calculate.

Any business VAT return for example cannot readily be apportioned to English VAT and Scottish VAT.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Watch out for them evil English.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yet you argue vociferously against the prospect. I think you should avoid following me round the forums to get embarrassed in thread after thread. Streaming, Coronavirus and now Scottish independence.

You don't know enough about the subject to meaningfully offer any input, instead you offer age old tried and tested unionist tripe. 45% of the population saw through it in 2014 and likely more when asked next time.

You make the false assumption that Scotland couldn't reform the tax system or dramatically cut expenditure. Things like Trident are immediate quick wins, and aircraft carriers with no aircraft.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Really?
As I've pointed out a supposed 20% extra missing revenue is too big to be really missing.
2018-19 spending £78,598m, income(including oil) £65,442m. £13bn required to bridge the gap.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:37 ----------

Link

Only £3.3bn of defence spending was attributed to Scotland, still £10bn to find.:rolleyes: And that's with no defence spending in Scotland at all. How would fiddling around with tax generate an extra 20% revenue? If it was that easy, everybody would be doing it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Apart from these ones?



For someone so vexed by age-old unionist tripe, you’re awfully fond of age-old separatist tripe.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Separatist tripe would, on the basis of polling, seem to have the edge going forward though. :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

£10 billion deficit?

Perhaps they’ll do what the U.K. does - run up a National Debt, and run at a deficit until they sort out income to be greater than expenditure...

U.K. was (at the time of the 2019 Budget) expecting to run at a £29.3 billion deficit for 2020 (I’m sure that’s been revised upwards now), and having a National Debt of £1,840 billion.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Lacking a little perspective, perhaps. How many polls have shown a majority for the union, over how many years? What was the outcome the only time people were invited to make the choice for real, after months of detailed debate (as opposed to months of separatist politicians exploiting an international emergency as an opportunity for daily jingoistic rabble rousing)?

Given Sturgeon has had months to use a specific set of devolved powers to cast herself as Lady Protector of the nation I’m not especially surprised that we are where we are right now. But the fundamentals haven’t changed, and in fact they’ve got rather worse given the economic cost of the crisis. Unless you’re one of the proper swivel-eyed ones who thinks we really are discussing independence from the imperial power rather than the dissolution of a union, with all the asset and liability sharing that entails?

If there is a fresh referendum campaign in the next 5 years, the economic argument will be painful for the SNP to make, unless they think they can just brass it out like Salmond tried to do in 2014.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

tbf, they’ve had borrow the RAF’s tin and flyboys until 809 Naval Air Squadron is formed, which is due to be stood up in 2023...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It makes sense for the RAF to skill up on the first ones to come off the line - in any case even the Invincible Class carriers embarked RAF Harriers when required.

QE and PoW are brand new, cutting edge ships carrying brand new, cutting edge planes. There was always going to be a lot of testing and training and the best logistics department in the world was never going to bring everything together at precisely the same time. That was foreseen a long time ago, which is why the US Marines were invited some time ago to provide air power alongside the RAF on QE’s first operational deployment.

“Carriers with no planes” is just one of several dog-whistle messages from 2014, appealing to that portion of the Yes vote that was in it entirely (or mostly) because of Trident, with little risk of upsetting the Forth and Clyde shipbuilders who were actually building the things.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The fundamentals of the argument may not have changed in your eyes, and to some extent you probably have a point, however demographics are shifting.

England is politically moving further away from Scotland in it’s own search for a national identity, weakening the union in my view.

I’m not convinced the pre-2014 arguments for the Union will hold as much sway as they did then. I think many will feel let down by what was promised from staying in the UK that hasn’t come to fruition. I’m not convinced people in Scotland will trust a Conservative government to lead the post-Coronavirus recovery in the interests of the whole UK.

I think the unionists need a new compelling case for the union and I don’t know what that is or what it’ll look like.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

2018-19 spending £78,598m, income(including oil) £65,442m, equals £13,156m deficit. Then assume no defence spending of any sort(no Trident etc), that reduces the deficit by £3.3bn, giving a deficit of around £10bn. Nobody would lend to Scotland unless they reduce that deficit. You can't keep forever borrowing money as Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Cyprus will tell you.

A huge chunk of the UK deficit is subsidising Scotland. Then add in Wales and NI. Would the UK be able to borrow money, if the UK deficit was the same relative size as Scotland's? Even if they could borrow money, it would be very expensive(ie high interest) to do so. Scotland has been running a deficit for 20 years. They have no intention of reducing it. b

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I argue against the prospect because separation would be impoverish the Scottish population, who are being sold a pup by England haters. If separation does happen, however, the remainder of the UK will gain financially from it.

Incidentally, the UK as a whole is paying for Trident, not just Scotland. Scotland would lose the income generated by those who work there and instead would have to pay unemployment benefits for those who could not get alternative employment or decided not to move back to England.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Impoverish the Scottish population :D

A laughable assertion. Essentially the “too wee, too small, too stupid” narrative all over again. Please Old Boy come up and campaign for Scotland to stay. I can’t think of anything better for the cause of independence than English people pretending to not care but seething on the inside as the union crumbles.

I think given your failure to understand Government finances in the Coronavirus thread I’ll not worry too much about your analysis of Scotland’s finances at a macroeconomic level. You keep your household budget economics for keeping Mrs OB happy with poor value linear TV packages.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

So where is the economic argument, then? You can ridicule me all you like, but you have no answers.

Start with the ending of the British subsidy to Scotland. How the hell do you work out that this is not a problem if Scotland wants to stand on its own two feet?

More borrowing seems to be your answer to everything, in which case why doesn’t Scotland borrow more now and stop sponging off England?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I've said before - the figures presented to you in GERS don't constitute what the economy of an independent Scotland would look like. Nor the expenditure choices an independent Scotland would make.

As for the bit in bold you clearly do not understand the devolution settlement, although I'm unsurprised by this revelation as you're clearly in this thread not to offer nothing substantive but simply provoke others. Scotland doesn't have the powers to borrow!

If you are so bothered about your perception of Scotland 'sponging' why are you not simply indifferent about whether Scotland goes independent or not?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Link

The Scots produce GERS. If they disagreed with the methodology, what have they said that would increase revenues by 20%.:rolleyes:


Link

If they were allowed to borrow, would they be able to? The "interest rates" charged would be huge, especially as the likelihood of them paying back is less than zero. They would have to default in a matter of a few years.



If the SNP are happy to spend less, why don't they? As I have to keep pointing out, if their defence spending was zero, there would still be a large deficit remaining.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They aren't allowed to disagree with the methodology. Indeed, their statisticians probably aren't given the huge amounts of data that HMRC have in respect of tax in the United Kingdom. Even then, as I've said, it's impossible to split out Scottish and English VAT.

There's no indication that interest rates charged would be huge, especially in the current climate of near-zero interest rates around the globe.

Ooh aggregate borrowing at 0.0015% of what the UK Government borrows. Imagine the possibilities!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Where does this 0.0015% come from?:D
UK borrowing includes the several 11 figure annual sum to prop up Scotland.
High deficit = high "interest rates".
"Not going to pay it back" = "Not going to lend you it, in the first place."


Estimates on VAT can be made. Their actual VAT would have to be double the estimated amount, in order to bridge the gap.

Still would nowhere near account for an alleged missing extra 20% in revenue.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

UK Government debt is £2 trillion. Scotland are being 'permitted' to borrow not more than £3bn. I just did the sums - I know that's a revolutionary thought as others regurgitate nonsense.

You should join the jfman Economics 101 lectures I'm giving Old Boy in the Coronavirus thread. You may find them insightful.

If England are so bothered about propping up Scotland why don't unionist parties just say - good luck, best wishes and laugh as they leave? But no we get lies, bitterness and deception. It's almost like their claims aren't true. :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

In fairness to Old Boy, he says he won't attend your Economics 101 lecture yet as it would be out of sequence. He wants to see the first 100 beforehand. :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Indeed there’s a mass gap of economics knowledge around, I’m not sure what to do...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Get enrolled into a good school, preferably not one in Scotland.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Indeed, and how much of this debt will Scotland pick up?

Given that per capita spending in Scotland is higher than in England by some margin.

Given scotland has a population of 5m, which is only 7% of the total of the UK 67M, what would be the formula?

2,000,000,000,000

Is stonking number whatever way you look at it, Scotland will not be starting fresh and walking away with a clean slate.

If the did it on per capita basis 7% of 2 trillion is still:

140,000,000,000

140 billion

Uk GDP is still around 2.2 trillion ( it’ll take a hit this year)

Scottish GDP is estimated to be at 180 billion

Which on the face of it looks good - 40 billion in the black.

Until you see that total public annual expenditure in Scotland is 75 billion and last year they had a tax receipt shortfall of 940M

Nothing is impossible but it would mean a lot of Belt tightning or just keep running an annual 35-40 billion deficit To add to the 140billion and live happy.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

A very large chunk of that "£2 trillion" went to Scotland. Especially if you consider the time before North Sea oil. They are responsible for that. Scots Blair, Brown, and Darling were also responsible for another large chunk of it, ie borrowing from 2002 onwards,


Your claim that Scotland couldn't independently choose to borrow is false. England has to also borrow large amounts on Scotland's behalf, at much lower bond yields(interest rates) than Scotland would ever get by itself.


England would never be allowed to get a say on this or indeed anything else. We're not allowed democratic control.:mad:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If Northern Ireland were to rejoin Eire, it would be interesting to see if some of the UK debt was allocated to it. Suggestions I've heard are that it wouldn't be. This could set an interesting precedent if Scotland were to leave too, although I appreciate that some will argue that the union of Scotland with England was different from the union of GB and Ireland.

Could there be financial benefit in the SNP holding fire on independence for a bit for a better long-term financial settlement with ex-GB? They would have to be confident that the majority in favour of independence would be maintained but if jfman's stats by age hold true, this should not be an issue.

---------- Post added at 10:08 ---------- Previous post was at 09:59 ----------

It's Conservative governments who run the largest budget deficits, Nomad.
http://www.primeeconomics.org/articl...size-of-labour

England got a big say on the EU referendum and is taking Scotland out against its will. But it needs to devolve more power and importantly money regionally. That would certainly help Track and Trace, for example. But this current government like many others is all about centralisation.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Sturgeon is not ignorant of these issues and would prefer to hold a vote at the point of maximum advantage. Her problem is one of party management. The SNP is eating itself up at the moment, and while it has managed to more or less keep a lid on it so far it has the potential to blow up spectacularly next year, if Salmond decides to exact his revenge by launching a new “Indy now” party in time for the election. A lot of the party hardliners think the most important thing is to get a vote ASAP, win it by hook or by crook, and worry about the fallout later.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I suppose that's one way of spinning it; but spin/nuance it is.

For the Referendum, there was no constitutional basis for each province (for want of a better term) to have a veto - or even qualified majority(!).

The Referendum was, as you know, UK wide and implemented on that basis. Of course, the government could have made some laws after the result so as to deal with regionality issues, but it didn't.

The SNP are making hay with this for their own purposes. We can all see what hypocrites they are because they want freedom the UK but want also to surrender that freedom to the EU. The SNP is all about a power grab, waling the world's corridors of Chief Ministers.

I would want to bring the SNP to heel. By all means devolve more powers to NI and Wales - but the Guvmin should withhold that from Scotland until the SNP behave more like it is part of the Union (which they won't). There should be no further referendum at least not before the next General Election. Whatever new powers we might offer them, they'll demand more.

I'm reasonably sure that the Scottish people are as fickle as anyone, in this case I'd say Boris and his manner/speech whatever is what's putting them off. But the people haven't analysed the financial situation, don't know from where the £15 billion spending gap will be plugged.

Otherwise, sod 'em.




---------- Post added at 20:26 ---------- Previous post was at 20:25 ----------

Exactamundo.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The context of my response was a reply to NomadKing. He had stated "England would never be allowed to get a say on this or indeed anything else."

I disagreed and by way of example cited the 2016 referendum.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well, if Salmond did form a new party, he would split the independence voters and that would be interesting.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

He might as well go for it,the SNP will never deliver.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Holyrood is elected by the D’Hondt system, which uses regional party lists to add MSPs to those elected in constituencies, in order to make the composition of the chamber proportional to the vote. It isn’t perfect, but it seriously reduces the incidence of perverse outcomes such as the one you might have in mind. In this system, evenly splitting the independence vote between parties run by Salmond and Sturgeon would result (in theory at least) in them getting 30 seats each rather than Sturgeon’s SNP getting all 60. It’s not quite that simple because there are other parties also in the contest and because it isn’t possible to be perfectly proportional with only around 120 seats to be won. The combined independence seats could be slightly higher, or they could be slightly lower.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

All the same, the perpetual squabbling between the two parties would weaken their position.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It ought to, although it depends to a great extent on how many voters are choosing the SNP as a credible governing party, and how many are choosing them as a route to independence. “Wheesht fur Indy” is a powerful motivator in these parts, and some are prepared to put up with breathtaking incompetence from SNP ministers because they are a means to an end.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

With tactical voting it could skew it massively. Of if a hypothetical party was “list only”. The Greens have tried to encourage this however the SNP are not so complacent as to do so.

The SNP could sweep the board in a constituency vote and a hypothetical party eat up half of the list seats through not having their regional vote adjusted on the basis of constituency seats.

Could conceivably be the best outcome though for our concerned English members who want to save on Barnett consequentials.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

All of that is possible, but we still only get one list vote each. The splinter faction would have to persuade a lot of people who have given their constituency vote to the SNP withhold from them their list vote, and give it to the splinter instead. Proportional voting is still relatively novel in the UK and the system used for Holyrood (the additional member system, not D’Hondt, as I incorrectly stated earlier) is not the same as is used in Scottish councils or Euro-elections (which did use the D’Hondt system). That means the Holyrood additional member system has only ever been used a handful of times by anyone. It is far from clear that the sort of tactical vote switching Alex Salmond would require can be successfully communicated to enough voters to make a difference.

There is a threshold below which it’s effectively impossible to gain any list seats because there aren’t enough of them to go round for the system to be absolutely proportional. That’s what eventually did for Tommy Sheridan and his merry band of tinpot revolutionaries in the Scottish Socialist Party. People were still voting for them, just not in enough numbers for them to get even one list seat in each region.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

There’s enough similarities to D’Hondt that I thought it was, but I also see it’s a D’Hondt hybrid if you like - with a constituency element.

And I agree the system to be skewed in a manner I described would be unlikely - it’d need 100% of the SNP constituency voters to not vote SNP on the list. I think in the real world it’d be impossible to get as much as half to do so, but somewhere around a third realistic. That’d have them ahead of the Lib Dems on the list.

I do accept the awareness of how the system works isn’t yet high enough for independence voters to exploit it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

While I'm sure Tories in the south are having a good laugh at the Scottish Government not knowing if furlough would be available in light of their public health decisions I'm sure it's a bad look to those who would rely on such funding, if available, who would be relieved at such uncertainty being removed.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I thought Krankie knew everything.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If you mean the First Minister I'm sure she's not a mind reader. There's no genuine reason for the UK Government to seemingly be unclear and contradictory on this point.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

BoJo gives the Scottish independence cause a helping hand.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

He’s not wrong.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Relax, everything a Tory does or doesn’t do, gives independence a helping hand (or so we’re always told). It’s pretty much priced in.

Besides, he’s right, devolution is a disaster, because it was designed with the assumption that Labour would always be the largest party in Holyrood and the eternally successful New Labour project would be in power in London as often as not. It was recklessly constructed without any consideration for what would happen if the governing party in Edinburgh actively sought out and exploited its weaknesses. The SNP is very good at maximising grievance, complaining that it doesn’t have the powers to Make Scotland Great Again and not properly exercising the significant powers that it actually does have.

The Tories have had a good showing in Scotland of late but the nationalist madness isn’t really going to end until Scottish Labour works out what it’s supposed to be for, an exercise it hasn’t seriously undertaken for the best part of a century since it started taking the Scottish voters for granted. The SNP is being almost entirely propped up by the votes of the scunnered working classes of Glasgow and Dundee, who at present continue to buy the lie that independence will pave their closes with gold (as opposed to the reality, which is that the poor always suffer most at times of great social and economic upheaval, which is precisely what the SNP’s independence would be).

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I won’t pick out the parts I disagree with (I’m sure you can guess) but there’s quality analysis in here of the problem unionism faces.

It needs a devolution settlement that suits Scotland not a party out of power in London and in danger of extinction up here.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Presumably there are some lessons that Labour in Scotland can learn from Labour in Wales?

Labour nationally is playing the "we're not the Conservative Party" line which is fine for Westminster where there are no forthcoming elections but unhelpful in Scotland when there are some in Holyrood.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I would love to know how NS is going to survive with a population of 5.5 million?

I would be generous and say only 2.5 million will be old enough to earn wages.

That surly cannot be enough to pay for the bills a government need to pay.

More people live in London (9.3 m)

She would get no hand outs from us, then there be the requirement for a border, and all those people that work and live on different sides that would then require a border.

But what would happen in another lockdown situation should we allow people to cross (personally I'd say NO).

NS will bankrupt Scotland with 5 years.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Republic of Ireland has a population of 5m and seems to be able to pay for its own government. There's quite a few countries in the world that size.

But could Scotland on its own be able to take a punt on a broad portfolio of Covid 19 vaccines in the way that the UK has done? That's a different matter...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

We've been over this before.

That isn't the point, of course Scotland could be an independent nation of 5M people or less.

However, they would certainly not enjoy the level of public spending they enjoy now.

Or they could, if they borrow into oblivion.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That assumes an independent Scotland wouldn't use a single macroeconomic lever to increase tax receipts and investment.

It also assumes the UK tax system is perfectly optimised for investment and returns. Which isn't what the Conservative Party think.

There isn't a single small country in the world that looks at it's bigger neighbour and models it's tax and spending system on it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Scottish independence secret weapon revealed!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54951970

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Dear god no.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

:D:D:D
Well failing that, Dominic Cummings has some time on his hands next year and is good at winning difficult campaigns. More importantly, he is skilled at driving long distances without the need for toilet breaks. ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Jfman, serious question, does the above mean that the hardworking people of Scotland will be taxed to death to pay for independence?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The other direction? Perhaps it might reduce Corporation Tax to attract British companies with substantial assets in Scotland like Diageo to relocate its tax domicile there. The Irish model.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Ah ok, thx, Andrew.:)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?