Cable Forum - UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

It is understood the Barmier has had to change his underpants four times today:)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

More Project Fear from the Torygraph...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rexit/#comment

Quote:

Brussels can smell panicking Britain's desperation to get a Brexit deal

Having failed to prepare for no-deal, it seems the Government may lose its nerve.

For those of us who doubt London’s willingness to go for no deal (why hasn’t the UK walked already?), Sunday’s joint statement by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen came as little surprise. Would the British Government really risk the perceived bad public relations of no deal on top of the hit from Coronavirus, now compounded by new restrictions?

To be fair to Brussels, it is the British Government – and not the EU – which has moved the goalposts. The British Government signed up to the Withdrawal Agreement and all it entails for Northern Ireland. The British Government refused to walk when it should have left the room many times. And, despite news of no deal preparations, it is the British Government which seems ill-prepared for no deal.

The level playing field has proved a major source of disagreement. While it is suggested that Brussels might drop the ‘ratchet clause’ – which would keep Britain aligned with the EU via Court of Justice of the European Union oversight – it seems Brussels might now be going for a softer version via a mechanism whereby ‘divergence’ would invoke ‘rebalancing’ measures, although so-called ‘lightning tariffs’ appear to now be off the menu.

This all still looks like the level playing field by the back door. We now hear European companies bidding for public sector contracts in the UK will be treated the same as British firms, although that would apply both ways. That the UK seems to have thrown away the last-minute opportunity to override the most pernicious aspects of the Withdrawal Agreement and Northern Ireland Protocol – alongside news that the EU will have an office in Northern Ireland (permanently, if desired) – compounds the sense that the UK is signing itself into a deal which future generations could pay a heavy price for. Will a deal really fail now over fisheries?

There may be, as President von der Leyen told the European Parliament “a path to an agreement” – and, according to EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier only the “last stumbling blocks remain” – but we know that any deal will be waived through by virtually all opposition parties and the Remain elements within the Parliamentary Conservative Party. The fact the European Parliament has set Sunday as deadline day – and is ready to convene an emergency session - will put pressure on all sides. For politicians and commentators who wish to scrutinise the particulars of the deal, there simply will not be enough time to do so.

As reported recently in the Telegraph, MPs and peers could sit next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith however told the Telegraph he feared a trade deal will now be “rammed through at speed”. While MPs are soon to break up for Christmas, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove confirmed they could be called back if a deal is agreed and that he believes there is enough time for the legislation to pass.

It isn’t that the EU wants no deal (pragmatic Germany certainly wants one and will push France if needed), but any deal Brussels signs up to will likely be one where Britain comes second. The EU has every incentive to make Britain pay for Brexit lest other member states get ideas that leaving the club is the smart choice. How would it look to Hungary and Poland if the UK was perceived to do well out of Brexit, given their recent dust-up with Brussels?

The UK should understand this and curb its desperation to get a deal. Unshackled from the EU’s clutches, the UK would be free to be the buccaneering deregulated trading superstar we know it can be. The Prime Minister was not elected to sell out on Brexit. The Red Wall did not give him a mandate for BRINO. Nor, through the Northern Ireland Protocol, did Britain give this Government a mandate to partition the United Kingdom.

A bad deal would leave Britain in effective ‘association’ membership, without a voice in the room (poor consolation though it was, it did afford some say over the direction of the EU) and without the freedom to truly diverge from the bloc. Brexit does not lend itself to a halfway-house, nor to rushed implementation.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

The final two paragraphs are key, although HMG (and especially former Telegraph employee Boris) is meant to take note of the whole thing. This piece is a gun to his head, threatening withdrawal of support if he goes soft on Brexit (as defined by the Telegraph). It’s clear the paper’s editorial line is that if Britain doesn’t get what it wants, then Britain should walk. On pain of the Telegraph making life utterly miserable for Boris. Given that the Telegraph undoubtedly knows where at least some of the bodies are buried, it’s a threat Boris might just take seriously.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36062597)

More Project Fear from the Torygraph...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rexit/#comment

Don't see any fear mongering there.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36062600)

BoJo has a great ability to successfully elude the downsides of scandal. I don't think there's much the Telegraph has on him that is going to caude him sleepless nights. Only the possibility of of losing the red wall seats and of course his young child will cause him sleepless nights.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36062601)

Don't see any fear mongering there.

The only fear-mongering comes from the poster.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Boris is a shitebag. He will fold.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36062603)

The only fear-mongering comes from the poster.

This poster? ;)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36062602)

They were always going to lose those seats, they were only ever on loan and there's plenty the paper could have on him, like the actual number of children he's fathered

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36062602)

That's because at the end of this all, if things are not the resounding success we were promised, it won't be Boris Johnsons fault. It's never Boris Johnsons fault.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36062632)

That's because at the end of this all, if things are not the resounding success we were promised, it won't be Boris Johnsons fault. It's never Boris Johnsons fault.

It will certainly be the EU's fault.

The trick they are trying to pull in the level playing field negotiation is this:

1/
Any state aid the UK provides to its businesses is subject to level playing field scrutiny.

2/
Any business aid provided by the EU as distinct from individual countries is not subject to level playing field scrutiny.

Boris is finished if he gives in to this demand. They'd simply cheat by charging the 27 countries more and giving it back as EU aid.

---------- Post added at 11:31 ---------- Previous post was at 11:29 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36062608)

Boris is a shitebag. He will fold.

The EU, in respect of negotiations, is the shitebag.

Boris is merely a past philanderer.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36062640)

]The EU, in respect of negotiations, is the shitebag.

Boris is merely a past philanderer.

Often, it's what people don't say that's more important than what they do say.

I think this is true here as I don't see disagreement with jfman's prediction that Boris will fold. ;)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36062642)

Often, it's what people don't say that's more important than what they do say.

I think this is true here as I don't see disagreement with jfman's prediction that Boris will fold. ;)

Everyone else is out shopping etc!

Anyway, much of the very wise stuff I've posted hasn't been challenged in any way; does that put me on a par with my good friend jfman?

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36062645)

Everyone else is out shopping etc!

Anyway, much of the very wise stuff I've posted hasn't been challenged in any way; does that put me on a par with my good friend jfman?

As Lord Byron said

Quote:

Self praise is no praise at all

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36062640)

1/
Any state aid the UK provides to its businesses is subject to level playing field scrutiny.

2/
Any business aid provided by the EU as distinct from individual countries is not subject to level playing field scrutiny.

I guess that's why Germany are still throwing £billions at their automotive industry, . . . not that we have one to throw at least £27 at though ;)