Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia has rejected the ceasefire btw

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Meanwhile…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...7&d=1741889999

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ultimately - leaving aside whether Russia have any intention of signing - the optics of Trump pushing Ukraine and Russia to the table and an immediate deal is likely difficult for Putin. Whether he gets anything else from Trump or not is likely irrelevant so long as he can indicate he has.

Appreciate that’s of no concern to the “every inch plus Crimea” brigade of Ukrainiacs but any settlement was always likely to be one that Putin can sell at home as a success for the “special military operation”.

At this point it’s possible Putin would prefer to push the Ukrainian incursion out of Russia to remove it from the negotiations.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I’m happy to be a Ukrainiac - regardless of the tactical difficulty, Ukraine’s borders are established in international law. European states slicing territory off each other has never gone well in the past and settling for it now in the name of realpolitik sets a dangerous modern precedent.

As far as the ceasefire offer goes, I think Putin’s bluff has been called. He has maximalist aims of his own, and half the Donbas plus a few extras doesn’t come close. I predict his list of difficulties and things that still need to be ironed out will grow longer and be forever tantalisingly out of reach.

And FWIW I think Putin has got quite a lot out of Trump, including a blinding of Ukraine’s ability to see what the Russians were doing for just long enough for Russia to effectively end the Kursk incursion. The timing of the beginning and the end of that withdrawal of support is far too convenient.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Behaving exactly as instructed by his handler.

Europe, including the UK, needs to start moving away from being so dependant on the US. Portugal seems to have started this by reconsidering their F35 procurement.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Surely if Trump was a Russian puppet the first iteration would have been suitable for Putin to agree to?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Surely they wouldn't be that obvious?

They'll find a reason for it to be Ukraine's fault...

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Do they really need one? For Trump and Putin’s respective supporters it’s success. For their opponents it’s America and Russia carving up Ukraine and sharing the spoils. Blaming Ukraine (and for what?) seems like an unnecessary step (and for what audience?).

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Canada and Turkey are also reconsidering apparently.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

They were suitable but given the speed that Trump acquiesced, Putin saw how easily his orange puppet could now be manipulated beyond even his initial wild dreams!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Switzerland as well.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Why would you think Russia would relinquish the territory it has gained?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So far Ukraine are the only ones who have to make concessions even though when negotiations started it was said both would have to make consessions.

I await the first concession Russia will have to make for the Trump team. Not holding my breath though.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Not so easy for us in regards to the F35, we aren’t just customers, we’re Tier 1 partners with the US in the whole project.

---------- Post added at 18:02 ---------- Previous post was at 18:00 ----------

What concession do think he has to make?

His concession will be to stop fighting, and that’s all it needs to be.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yes a lot of people don’t seem to have grasped how negotiations work for the losing side in desperate need for a way out of a war it can neither resource by manpower or firepower.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

In return for a de facto recognition of whatever it is granted in the deal (Ukraine will never formally cede anything but it wouldn’t have to - N and S Korea are still technically at war, for example).

The fighting can’t simply stop at the current line of control if, for example, topology and existing infrastructure makes that position indefensible, or unmanageable. Obviously Putin is not going to want to cede anything of significance but he can’t snap his fingers and make Ukraine stop fighting, and frankly neither can Trump. With each passing day, European countries are waking up to the shifting strategic realities and are a day closer to plugging enough of the US’s resource gap to keep Ukraine fighting.

Ukraine simply isn’t going to sign a treaty that gives Russia everything it wants. It believes, with great justification, that it is in an existential fight for survival and won’t stop without good reason. “Sign here” is not a good reason.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If anyone knows how to drive a soft bargain on behalf of Ukraine, it's Trump.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...r-latest-news/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

An ‘accident’, or ‘unsanctioned’ or ‘fake’ … take your pick.

You know Putin’s lying because his lips are moving.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Something he has in common with Trump

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Just take the Israeli approach. As long as you target something else nearby the collateral damage doesn’t matter.

The United Kingdom can’t even credibly call attacks on energy infrastructure, if they were to take place, as a war crime. Merely a risk of one.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Putin has no intention of stopping. He’s out on a limb, having declared the annnexation of 4 entire oblasts of Ukraine into mother Russia, which includes vast swathes of land he does not control and has no prospect of controlling in the near future. He needs the war to go on and he needs Ukraine to be starved of resources. Putin will continue to play Trump like a fiddle while he attempts to achieve that end.

The one thing he can’t control is the growing awareness within Europe of the need for a credible security architecture without American involvement. Agent Krasnov let Putin down with that little pantomime with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office because, coming right after Macron and Starmer did their damndest to get Trump onside, it left Europe with no credible way to believe that things might not be as bad as they’d been told. They are worse, and even Germany is adjusting its debt rules to allow itself to buy more arms.

The danger for Putin is that this willingness to rearm and to contemplate a non-Nato security plan against Russia might be generating a coalition of the willing, in which states that are willing to - UK, France, Germany, the Baltics, Poland - are more than powerful enough to press ahead outside of organising bodies like the EU or Nato which Russia has effectively compromised by gaining influence within certain member states (Hungary principally, though he’s working on Romania).

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

There’s no way that coalition of the willing doesn’t flounder as far right governments replace incumbents intent on decimating their own economies for unknown ends in far flung lands. If they last longer than Trump that’ll just be the favourability of the electoral calendar.

I’d not rule out Starmer, who has proven time and again he doesn’t even stand for the principles upon which he stood for leadership of the Labour Party, never mind the manifesto upon which he was elected, being the lap dog to Trump once his posturing is confirmed as an electoral liability.

He’s perhaps the one person Ukraine might be able to rely upon less than the Americans in the long run.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well, I’m no fan of Starmer but even on an uncharitable reading of him it is hard to see how he can drop the ball on this one. An epoch is shifting and the European governments Starmer instinctively wants to align with - and which his party prefers to align with - are pulling in a very different direction than the USA. We have a circle that can’t be squared, and I agree with you that sooner or later he is going to have to make a choice, because the ambition to be a bridge between Europe and the US might have been plausible 2 months ago but it really isn’t now. If it’s a question of who he weakly follows, I can’t see him going with Trump over Macron and Merz, especially not after Trump has been so usefully odious as to make distancing from him a simple matter of politeness.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think you underestimate the extent Brexit will induce negative sentiment towards anything that even remotely looks like a European army. People voted for Britain to forge its own path in the world and explore trade deals elsewhere. Trump dangles that carrot and Starmer knocks it back for his European buddies and the Conservatives and Reform will be all over him.

We have NATO for our security and despite a lot of scaremongering there is no indication, anywhere, that NATO wouldn’t come to the aid of a member state when (and perhaps more importantly if) required.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

<cough cough>

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...ift-rcna195089

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-...em-2025-03-07/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

i have serious doubts that the USA under trump would get involved unless it is attacked.

lets not forget they were a tad late for 2 world wars

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It’s straightforward extortion, but not clear that America would follow through with it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

America is currently following through with deportation of foreign nationals in the face of judicial orders not to do so. I’m unclear on what basis the president of the United States could be forced to intervene anywhere militarily if he had chosen not do so - least of all a president who is a New York businessman, clearly knows what a protection racket looks like, and has explicitly stated that he intends to run Nato like one.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Deporting people is worlds apart from not securing your treaty committed allies. It’s a zero cost activity with political upside.

It wouldn’t be like cutting and running from Afghanistan, Iraq and Ukraine. It’d be a decision that would affect America’s position in the geopolitical order for generations to come.

America has forward bases in NATO countries, and relies upon it for logistical and political support for its overseas escapades (and perhaps more importantly at present - political cover for Israel’s American funded and armed atrocities in Palestine). This fundamentally hasn’t changed.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

All of which is true, but your argument rests on an assumption that Trump is a rational actor. I’m not convinced he is. He’s a narcissist who harbours deep frustrations at the obligations and state institutions that restrained him from 2017 to 2021. He has shown the inclination to tear them down repeatedly since mid January. Whether he’s pursuing revenge or whether he’s simply clearing the decks to ensure he gets his own way, he’s shown little sign of understanding the longer term consequences of his actions. He is acting out of a need for narcissistic supply. That isn’t rational.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You appear to be moving the goalposts from

to

How could they follow through on something that there is no indication, anywhere, happening?

You may wish to actively review your risk assessment matrix scoring methodology… ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You do know that other NATO members can protect/come to the aid of other NATO members, without the need of the USA to be involved, if they decide not to.

France and the U.K. have independent nuclear capability, that alone should still deter anyone attacking NATO, whether the US is onside or not.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Article 5 is relevant in this context…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Only the USA has nuclear umbrella treaties with other states. France has recently suggested it could do so, providing its arsenal as a nuclear umbrella for Nato-sans-USA, on the assumption that US intervention can’t be guaranteed, but has put nothing on paper. At present neither France nor the UK has any treaty obligation to respond to a nuclear attack on a third country with its own nuclear weapons, even under NATO art.5.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Obligated or not, I would expect a nuclear attack on a NATO nation, even if the US did not respond ( which I doubt would be the case) to result in the other nuclear members of NATO to respond.

Otherwise…….what’s the point of NATO?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don’t think we should be necessarily going all Franz Ferdinand with nuclear weapons anyway. The first question should, although inevitably won’t, be how to get off the escalation ladder.

I’m not sure “ah, but we were obliged to” stops the third one landing on us.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...vertelemetry=1


---------- Post added at 11:46 ---------- Previous post was at 09:47 ----------

Perhaps not invading and occupying other countries would be a good first step to getting off the escalation ladder, by not actually bringing the escalation ladder on to the scene?

btw, remind me, which side has repeatedly threatened to escalate to delivering "instant sunshine" by changing their nuclear weapons doctrine?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Appreciate that would be the ideal scenario but the hypothetical as put inferred that someone had already used a nuclear weapon.

The idea of Britain being treaty bound, and actively increasing the number of countries this applies to, to ensure its own destruction without question is madness.

What if Russia used a small nuclear weapon in response to a chemical attack, dirty bomb, or similar. The official Ukrainian Government at that time, in a state of civil unrest, blames nationalist splinter groups and rogue UAF not operating under their command. Do we blast Moscow because the bit of paper says so?*

*Not saying the above is likely to happen, and yes the scenario is designed to be deliberately difficult to judge. The same could equally apply with other countries and it’s very easy to see how it ends in World War 3.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Perhaps Putin saw us invading and occupying Iraq, and thought hmmm..........

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Us? Nothing to do with the UK.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Think it did involve the Uk

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Wow, that’s impressive - I haven’t seen that big a stretch since Saturday 1st February 1975, at RAF Cosford.

That was Geoff Capes warming up for the Shot Put at the U.K. Indoor Athletic Championships… :D

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You might need to revisit that position

---------- Post added at 19:56 ---------- Previous post was at 19:46 ----------

Thank you!

But the reason, I bring it up, and I do realise that it was 24yrs ago.

But from the end of WWII until then the US, and us, did indeed hold the moral high ground.

We tut-tutted at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and armed the Taliban, sorry Mujahideen, to resist them.

But when we invaded Iraq, a sovereign nation, and occupied it. We lost any moral authority we thought we had.

If the West can do that, with impunity, why not Russia? (And that question is directed at you Hugh)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The fact that he can't work out the difference between the Iraq of Saddam Hussein and the Ukraine of 2022 says all you need to know.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Please educate me.

Please explain how an unprovoked, illegal invasion, and occupation of a sovereign nation where, a proxy government was installed, and hundreds of thousands innocent civilians were killed.

Is any different to what’s happening now, except that we did it so it’s ok.

You’ve said it……..tell me the difference? And I want an answer.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

America committed war crimes in Iraq - the rape and murder of women and children. Unfortunately they just fail the test of whether we should be concerned or not when held up against the dulux chart.

Any other party to a treaty or series of defence accords with Iraq could have very easily intervened should it have wanted to on the basis of American intervention. Which is why these things are dangerous - especially in a post October 8th world where Israel have ripped up all the norms of warfare and dragged complicit American and European politicians with it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You might want to read the post again. ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ok, yes. But I fail to see what the regime in power of either nation has anything to do with it?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well, since I think both were wrong, I wouldn’t have thought of using it as a justification for supporting what Putin did…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don't understand why Trump is getting annoyed. He's busy helping Ukraine win the war :confused: can't have it both ways. Pull out.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Wait. What ?

How do you get to that conclusion ?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

On the basis Russia doesn't take the whole of Ukraine. Which is far fetched I'll admit. Still America isn't helping end the war by being involved.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

He likes dreaming.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Looks like Russia is recruiting foreign mercenaries to fight for it in Ukraine.

https://www.ft.com/content/930cd517-...4-f90955500f49

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well is it their side of the world :)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Europe? :confused:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

China’s border 3,700 miles away from Ukraine’s border (not that much less than the distance from Alaska to China).

(It’s about the same distance as London to Miami, or about two and a half times the distance from London to Moscow…)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I'm pretty sure he means Russia's side of the world, since they are fighting for Russia.

Last I checked, Russia & China share a border.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

China is effectively a neighbour because of Russian ties. And as the map is layed out as USA west - Russia east I see no reason to believe anything other than that.

Their moving to America.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

America is probably closer to imploding atm.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Why would you wish ill on 745 million people?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Just the political institution, although I'd turn a smile if France and Ireland were particularly upset.

---------- Post added at 18:52 ---------- Previous post was at 18:51 ----------

Yeah - shame about that.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Pettiness ill-becomes you.

It wouldn’t just be the Governments that suffer, but also the people - btw, 300 million people in Europe aren’t in the EU…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I enjoy the pretence that those helicopter crashes in the wilderness and deaths in training exercises aren’t American deaths in Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Strange that you find enjoyment int the deaths of others…

Please feel free to condemn the Russian killing of those nine children in the Kryvyi Rih playground.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I enjoy the pretence, not the death. Both sides rely on mercenaries the supposed shock and horror Russia do is ridiculous.

Nobody has condemned the killing of children in modern warfare more than me on this forum. I’ve said before Russia should be commended for evacuating children from warzones rather than the Israeli approach of borderline ethnic cleansing. You won’t find me hiding behind “war, innit?”.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Seriously, dude?

"Russia should be commended" for kidnapping children from warzones they created - you’ve gone full vatnik.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Look at the alternative. Israel with a strike rate of 10-20% at best as they raze Gaza to the ground. Women and children killed indiscriminately under the guise of “collateral damage”.

Add up the numbers. Actors in war have duties to protect the rights of children in the territory the occupy. Russia, by any barometer, are better at this than Israel.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

What’s next? Are you going to commend the rapist who takes his victim to A&E after he assaults and ruins her life forever, but at least he’s not as bad as the other one who just left her at the side of the road?

You appear to be actually defending the Russians because they’re not as evil as Netanyahu because they’re kidnapping the children they made orphans - you seriously need to look at your moral compass…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Not at all.

It’s all a slippery slope. Russia not being as evil as Netanyahu is a pertinent point if the state we live in, and our allies, are offering logistical support (ant best) and a moral shield (at worst) for the activities of Israel.

I’ve added the updated version of your post after my response above. Yes, removing children from warzones, including orphans, is a more desirable than killing them because “war is ugly”.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

How about Putin doing neither?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

By that logic Hitler should've been commended also, yes he only took the Aryian looking ones but he evacuated them never the less and also took a lot fewer than putin too. Btw over 600 Ukranian children have died post evacuation and there have been numerous reports of mistreatment and sexual abuse so I think I'll pass on commending vlad for anything, except perhaps his own death

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://news.sky.com/story/europeans...e-war-13316417

Americans at this moment…

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2025/04/4.gif

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I am in no way agreeing or supporting or anything, but just for accuracy’s sake.

And

So did the US vote against…or abstain?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yes.

Two separate motions...

From just below the headline in the link

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Perhaps they need a rebrand, the USAR, i.e. the United States of America & Russia.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Thanks.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

As the senior party, I think Putin would order it USRA. ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-rea...ys-2025-04-18/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The art of the deal in action, blowhard, bluster, then fail, what happened to end war in 24 hrs :dunce::dunce::dunce:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Trump encounters the real world and discovers he doesn’t have the cards.

I imagine they are spitting with rage behind the scenes that Europe is ramping up its efforts on Ukraine’s behalf - there is no doubt that Trump’s game plan was to end the war by neutralising Ukraine. Mind you, I don’t think even that could have worked. I don’t think Trump understands Russia’s motives. Russia has not got anywhere near to achieving what it wants to achieve in Ukraine and has no incentive to stop trying right now.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I hear Putes is loving China's retaliatory tariffs. They're making purchases of LNG from the US uncompetitive so China is turning to...Russia for LNG. More money for Russia's invasion kitty. What's not for him to like about Agent Orange?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yaroslav Trofimov
@yarotrof
So having seen the full comments by Rubio, sounds like he presented the draft deal (which would require Europeans to lift sanctions on Russia) to the Ukrainian delegation in Paris, which is taking it back to Kyiv for a Zelensky decision — and the threat of walking away is in fact primarily directed at Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Does Trump condemn Ukrainian strikes? A strike is a strike regardless who started it!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I'm somewhat surprised to see Trumpski condemning Russian strikes!

There's a first time for everything, I guess!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Actually, it isn’t - the Ukrainian strikes are mainly against military and industrial targets, whilst the Russian strikes are much more indiscriminate, with many more civilians killed and injured.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It's a war. What else is to be expected of the conflict? I guess Zelenskyy could evacuate the whole country.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Perhaps not the wholesale, indiscriminate bombing of civilians, which iirc is a war crime

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

What kind of idiot are you? Ukraine does not target civilians, Russia does yet says they don't.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speech...nt-to-the-osce

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

A total idiot. Trump he's said all lives matter with regards to the war so why not further his comments on needless soldiers being killed from strikes made by Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I see the principle of states taking legal military action to counter aggression is a mystery to you.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Its about time we gave Ukraine the good stuff to hit well inside russia

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

My sympathy for Ukraine is a mystery. If they, Ukraine want to fight Russias, a neighbours accusations, then so be it but don't fall into the antisocial mob.

Trump didn't like Zelenskyy in the White house and called him out withdrawing support which was swiftly acted upon or they, Ukraine would be getting hit a lot harder than they are right now. Funny how someone's bluff can be called out.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Acceoted and proved by yourself. Needless sodiers killed by Ukraine? What are those soldiers there for other than to killl Ukrainians?

Surely to save Ukrainian deaths by Russian forces, the more they kill the more the Ukranians are saved?

What do you expect Ukraine to do, lie back and expect the genocide that Russia wants to inflice on them?

jfman commended the Russians for evacuating (kidnapping) childen form areas under thier control but failed to mention that they have put the young ones up for adoption to be brought up as Russians who will grow up joining the army to fight against their own people.

Older ones are sent to schools where they learn how to be cannon fodder for the Russian federation. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-prepa.../33217789.html.

I can understand Ukraine teaching thier children survival tactics during a war and maybe joining the armed forces when they are old enough if they wish, but for Russia to be doing it to Ukrainian children...

Putin does not recognise Ukraine as an independant state and wants to crush it and bring it back under Russian control. Having actually been there and met and made many friends there I can tell you they won't accept that. Until Russia leaves Ukraine they will fight.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

They carry on fighting themselves then with regards to Ukrainians being put on the lines of battle effectively screaming at themselves.

Ukrainians could be in America right now living the life like goonzquad (see YouTube).