Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You do know that GERS is commissioned by the Scottish government and compiled by independent statisticians, yes? Blaming its findings on a supposed U.K. government smear campaign is batty even by sep standards.

Besides all this, if you reduce Scotland’s apparent military spending to the same level as Ireland (around £0.8bn a year) then Scotland’s deficit is still eye-watering. Obsessing over the size of the UK’s defence budget, which is not even out of proportion for a NATO member, is missing the point entirely.

Of course within a single unitary state called the United Kingdom none of this is a problem. Throughout history, different corners of this island have seen their fortunes rise and fall, and rise again. The whole island does not have to be equally prosperous, all the time, for all its inhabitants to share in the opportunities presented by the prosperity of the whole.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I wonder what Scotland would do with defence.

In a way they could spend hardly anything because they know their security is also of concern to the security of the remainder of the United Kingdom. Would they stay part of NATO? I know the corridor of water that sits above them is deemed as important for NATO. If they were part of NATO they would have to pay for some defence but the SNP can play to their base by disassociating themselves from the British military.

I suspect they would attempt to trade their acceptance of NATO and maybe keep trident in return for something else. However with all their pandering about nuclear weapons it's going to be a hard sell for the SNP to have an independent Scotland keep nuclear weapons, remain in NATO and pay 3% GDP for the privilege.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Nah they'll just stock up on woad and spears.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Separatism is a fragile coalition. The only doorstepper I got in 2014 was in it purely because she thought it would end Trident - Scotland would throw it out, England would have nowhere else to put it and therefore it would be decommissioned. All concerns about the economy and the social ties across the U.K., were completely irrelevant in the face of that prize.

She was naive beyond belief, and she isn’t the only one. There is a constituency that wants independence in order to further the aims of CND, a constituency that wants independence as a route to republic, and a constituency that thinks “anyone but England” and believes Scotland’s finest hour was breaking the goalposts at Wembley.

One of the many reasons for not doing it is that after a yes vote, the competing demands of the factions would finally be seen to be irreconcilable, and it would then get extremely messy.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

In fairness to JFMan, there's plenty of Brexiters on here who seem to believe that economists and other experts are not to be trusted as they never get it right and Government figures that show how worse off we will be post Brexit are calculated by remainer civil servants. So perhaps JF Man has been made equally suspicious of those who compile the GERS figures being unionists.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

These aren’t economists though, and GERS isn’t a forecast. It is a statistical exercise, based on real current income and expenditure, which separatists used to love when oil cost a fortune and huge quantities of it were coming ashore because it made Scotland look very rich. Only now that the oil boom is coming to an end do they find it so inconvenient, and something to be called into question and brushed under the carpet.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

GERS has underlying problems with the source data. In many cases the only source is the UK Government departments and again it’s based on Scotland not having the macroeconomic levers that an independent country has.

I fail to see how having defence spending behind only the US and Israel cannot be out of step for a NATO member considering Israel isn’t one, so every other NATO member except the USA has lower military spending per capita than Scotland.

Real tax receipts from income tax, VAT and corporation tax aren’t readily available figures based on trade carried out solely within Scotland.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

9 if they rejoin it will cost them £40 billion
10 if they join the EU it's border and tax nightmare time for them.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

We'll never be able to sell a supermajority vote, not after having the last two referendums we've had as not requiring it. I think such a monumental change as breaking up the union should require more than 50% but that's been set as convention now.

I don't think it helps the cause to be too hostile to them at first anyway lest we risk a negative reaction. Certainly we can make it clear that we won't enter a currency union. They can use the pound, we can't stop them, but we're not their central bank post-Indy and won't consider Scotland when setting montary policy.

7 and 8 are unworkable as you can't such restrictions for future Governments. If both England and Scotland were to want to reform the union 10 years down the line then they can do so. Besides it's also counterproductive to enshrine in an agreement an 'out' down the line, it could make Independence seem like a free hit in which they can change their mind if it goes wrong.

We want Scotland to stay, we're not going to be draconian about it, but if they vote to leave then that means their own currency and the remainder of the United Kindom and it's 61 million people becomes a competitor albeit a friendly one. Scottish Businesses will no longer have an immediately addressable market of 66 million people in which the regulations, language and currency are all the same. Their addressable market is now 5 million.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

#banter

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Could be one of these economists


home economics
noun
cooking and other aspects of household management, especially as taught at school.;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

In fairness Seph, I wasn't sure if your post was tongue in cheek or not. :D

For starters, giving Scotland a 60% hurdle when the Brexit vote just needed a simple majority is just going to inflame matters and play to the nationalist cause. And rejoin upto two years incentives Scots to give it a go as there is a lifeboat waiting if it all goes pear-shaped.
I'll leave it here.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

He's the same in nearly every post mate, if you don't agree with his views then you are wrong!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Indeed, it specifically goes against the 'norms' we've established on referenda on constitutional matters.

The rest of the post is, broadly, confrontational. Indeed, had the EU drawn such arbitrary red (or blue) lines in terms of the UK future relationship withe the EU many on this forum would be furious.

---------- Post added at 15:55 ---------- Previous post was at 15:53 ----------

I've not said, in this thread, that anyone is out and out wrong. There's a few people misunderstanding how macroeconomic levers work, but I don't think they are approaching the discussion in bad faith.

Seph is, rightly I suppose, creating a high bar in England's interest (why wouldn't England seek to do so?) whether any reasonable person in Scotland would agree with them or not is a different matter.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The EU vs Scotland thing is a complete red herring and bear no relation to one another. For starters, the EU is trying to expand its centralised competencies whereas the UK is devolving them to its sub-nations.

As regards the high bar, that could, I suppose, be considered to be in the interests of Wales and NI as well. It's difficult to see, though, how that high bar benefits the rest of the UK. It simply tells the fools in Scotland who want to secede that they are on a road to disaster and don't expect any help from the British (or whatever you call it) tax payer. Really, sod 'em. Those who want to remain with the UK can emigrate south or west.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Little Jimmy Crankie is at it again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-53938337

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

How long till that needs bailing out.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

As the Scottish regional office of the UK Labour Party seeks out it’s tenth leader since devolution how long before they realise they are out of touch with voters on the constitution?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

What about the other 50%, are they out of touch with the SNP?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...oters-lost-snp

I care not for the Labour regional office in Scotland, but the evidence is that it has lost, and will continue to lose voters unless it finds itself a new position. In 2019 just shy of 40% of their own voters favoured independence. It’s position is untenable. Changing leader is just shuffling the deck chairs.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...ndence-1402354

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That doesn't mean that they will automatically vote in favour of the SNP.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They may not, however that’s irrelevant to my point. Labour is floundering, it’s current position isn’t viable. They must, rationally, look at it and wonder how they can win elections in the future. Or are they resigned to their long term fate?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Labour in Scotland has had the ground swept from beneath its feet because the SNP stole its message. As of right now, there is a belief in the favelas of North Lanarkshire and Dundee that only an independent Scotland can deliver the sort of welfarism Labour spent the entire 20th century telling them was their right. They believe this because that’s the message the SNP went big on in the 2014 referendum. For the same reason, the SNP vote in other parts of Scotland has become soft and vulnerable to the Tories.

The SNP has shaken off the “Tartan Tory” jibe of the late 20th century by presenting themselves as the Tartan Socialists of the 21st. I freely admit, if they ever manage to unite left and right around a convincing separatist narrative, they probably would win an Indyref, and do so fairly convincingly. Thus far they have failed to do so, however. Their biggest failure in 2014 was to concentrate far too much on the daily politics of an independent Scotland, with the so-called white paper reading more like a 1970s Labour party manifesto than the vision statement it needed to be.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I think you’ve half hit the point. Daddy voted Labour and Grandad voted Labour are no longer going to keep the party afloat in Scotland. The “favelas”, as you put it, don’t see a Labour Party acting in their interests, or even pretending to any longer in Scotland.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

More disaster for the Scottish branch of the UK Labour Party as Sir Keir’s efforts to remove Richard Leonard fall on deaf ears. Some unelected Lords preach the best thing for the party after Rachel Reeves does - but doesn’t - tell him to go.

Train drivers union backs Leonard calling it a Blairite putsch.

Oh dear...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Would that be mainly English Train/Transport unions? Should somebody from Gibraltar be commenting on Scottish politics?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Everyone is entitled to free speech. However the value of their input should always be weighted against their own involvement and self interest.

The statement is from ASLEF and quotes ASLEF Scotland - their members in Scotland are certainly most entitled to have their opinion listened to. It would be interesting to know if their UK operation interfered (or not) in the statement. We know for certain that the UK Labour Party is seeking to impose its will on the regional branch.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The head of the Transport Salaried Staffs' Association(TSSA) has also spoken out, and he is from Gibraltar.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

His membership, who presumably give him a mandate to speak, are not.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Silly question I know, but did he ask them? Did he ask anybody in the union? The majority of them will still not be Scottish. Whatever way you look at it, not a trade union matter, so he has no mandate on it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I’m sure it’s up to his membership to decide what he has a mandate to do (or otherwise) and not a right wing member of the Cable Forum!

It’s more excruciating embarrassment for the Scotland branch of the UK Labour Party that they are unable to capitalise on the incompetence of Red Card Ross who presumably wilfully misrepresented the words of the National Union of Farmers as he advocated a policy that he himself voted against!

I truly want to see better from the opposition parties in Scotland to strengthen our democracy. However, they are not offering me much to have faith in.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Baroness Davidson is angry about the use of her new title. Bless.

If only she stood for re-election this could all be avoided.

The plight of the North Britain regional branch of the UK Labour Party continues.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...es-to-oust-him

If they sincerely wish to go into the Scottish Parliament elections with an interim leader while the Conservatives go for part time Red Card Ross I expect the SNP will absolutely annihilate them.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Surely the problem for the Labour Party in Scotland is that independence for Scotland means the Conservative Party will be stronger in Westminster?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Which you would have thought would have resulted in more effort being put into winning Scottish seats. Unfortunately for them, Labour has lost its way. They need to find some more imaginative, positive minded and engaging people if they are to drag themselves out of this political mud.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Labour doesn’t know how to win seats in Scotland because it spent decades taking those it held for granted. It used to be said that the Labour vote in North Lanarkshire (lots of coal and steel) was weighed, rather than counted. The party grew complacent on an epic scale, and when the SNP became adept at articulating a centre-left message (historically Scottish independence was the hobby of middle classes, mostly in the north and north east, with time on their hands) the Labour vote began to wobble. The Yes (overwhelmingly SNP) campaign in 2014 hitched that centre-left message to a means of policy delivery that depended on independence. That is effectively now the status quo in Scottish politics. I happen to think this state of affairs lacks depth of conviction; once you strip away the woad-wearing, flag-waving lunacy there are just lots of working class (and workless class) voters in west-central and east Scotland who have been persuaded that their route to free stuff depends on separatism. This position is wide open to challenge, and the Tories have made some progress, but to really turn the tide against the Nats, Labour is going to have to find its voice. Whether it can do that in the next 8 months remains to be seen.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Good point here: https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...ion-different/

This time for No/Remain campaign cannot concede so easily on the question itself. It was a gift to the Yes campaign for them to be the Yes campaign. Better Together contorted itself in an attempt to frame itself as the more positive option.

It should be Remain/Leave as it was for the EU campaign.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Followed by 4 years of denial :shrug:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

4 years of denial, numerous legal challenges, many laughable resignation threats, quite a few dire warnings from various business groups and ministerial quangos, and an absolute torrent of tears ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Ageeed and I think that's the point JFMan has been making too. Unfortunately for Labour, it seems they're stuck with a no-name English friend of Corbyn's to lead them in Scotland for some time to come.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Fundamentally they are a party that has taken their vote in Scotland for granted for far too long. Like the North of England and industrial towns and villages - they want to know who is looking out for their interests. It’s evidently not the Labour Party.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Or maybe refresh our minds as to what the electorate said about leaving the UK a little while ago. :rolleyes:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If (when?) the SNP keep winning elections it is irrelevant what the vote in 2014 said. A mandate is a mandate.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Seeing as the SNP vote wasn't reflected in the referendum vote, that demonstrates there is NO automatic mandate for independence.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It’s a mandate to hold a vote, of course, not for independence.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

And they've had a vote, a "once in a generation" one.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

We’ve done this. That’s simply hyperbole - nowhere does such a concept exist in law. No Parliament being able to bind a future Parliament does however have a constitutional precedent.

To take your pointless example to ludicrous extreme what if the SNP got 95% of the vote? “Ah but once in a generation” is simply preposterous.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

wasn't it the SNP that coined the phrase once in a lifetime vote.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Nobody is disputing that - however it has no legal standing. You don’t have to look far to see many politicians make statements they later renege on - that doesn’t deny the people of Scotland their right to vote for a party that backs another referendum.

In your example if I set up a political party and got 51% of the vote and seats - would I have a mandate because I’m not the SNP? Or should I and my voters be denied their democratic right over a glib one liner from an SNP poltician?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

i haven't given an example,but it's clear you believe the SNP sold the people a pack of lies with their once in a lifetime ploy.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The SNP keep winning elections because the electorate regard the SNP as being their best choice of political party to vote for. It does not mean they support independence. Nicola Sturgeon knows that.

So mandate or no mandate, the referendum result is unlikely to be much different from what it was before. Unless the sensible Conservative Party can persuade the Scots that there is no economic case for separation, in which case it will be a lot different!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

And parties who win get to implement their manifestos. Chris, Max and I can vote in a referendum to argue about independence.

I don’t think Nicola Sturgeon does “know that” as you put it. There’d be no impetus to devote Government time to a Referendum Bill if she did.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

She has acknowledged that on a few occasions. Here is one of them, from straight after her landslide win.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...nce-referendum

“I don’t pretend that every single person who voted SNP yesterday will necessarily support independence, but there has been a strong endorsement in this election of Scotland having a choice over our future; of not having to put up with a Conservative government we didn’t vote for and not having to accept life as a nation outside the EU,” she said.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That’s okay the 40% of Labour voters who support independence will make up the shortfall.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

And now the Shetland Island Council has voted to explore independence from Scotland. 2020 is getting even stranger!
https://news.sky.com/story/shetland-...tland-12068826

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I don't know the politics of the Shetlands or whether they are mainly unionist or not, but that looks like a very big shot across the bows of the good ship SNP, which would see the argument about about an oil rich independent Scotland sail away into the sunset.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I’ve already been told off by Kushan for swerving the swear filter.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Very good.....:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Hey I'm just looking out for you! Learn from my mistakes and all that.

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2020/09/3.png

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

One interesting thing on any timing for a referendum - we have a UK-wide Festival coming up in 2022. (Sometimes termed the Brexit Festival)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/2022-festival-update

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

With the level of SNP support at the last referendum, I don't think Labour supporters count for much in this debate. You are getting desperate now.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

However, the last poll conducted between 2nd and 7th September found 53% were in favour of independence.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...te-yes-2968832

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Of course, the polls are always correct.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I think Unionists need to move past trying to block a referendum for much longer and instead focus on when would be optimal time for us to hold it, what the question should be and what the campaign will be. It needs to be better than the last campaign.

The Nationalists would have been planning for it from the moment they lost the last one.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Quantify this point.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The question would surely have to be the same as the EU question. The campaign would have to be more than Project Scottish Fear. Preumably it would need to be before the next UK election.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Bungling Scottish protester

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/127070...ocked-twitter/

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Sean Clerkin is a legend (not in a very good way). There’s video somewhere of him and his wife trying to set some government document or other alight outside the Tunnocks* factory, with similar lack of success.

*Boyd Tunnock absolutely enraged the Nats in 2014 when he declared he believed Scotland should remain in the U.K.

(Edit) Or was perhaps it in George square? It’s hard to remember, Clerkin is well known for frequent, crap protests. Even most Nats are embarrassed by him.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Needs locked up in a padded cell.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Speaking of bungling nice to see the Scottish Labour party stuck with a leader Sir Keir doesn’t want and nice to see egg on face for Lord Foulkes and Jackie Baillie for getting the Scottish Government briefing removed, then not removed and pretending it never happened, from the screens of the British state broadcaster.

If this is the best unionism has to put up the SNP have little to fear come May.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

There’s no economic plan for Scotland within the UK if year on year it is (allegedly) relying on billions in transfers just to keep afloat. That’s not a plan.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

because it runs on handouts.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Then the SNP have to come up with an economic plan without the (allegedly) billions in transfers to stop it sinking!
That would be a plan.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They want to rejoin the EU to keep the handouts coming

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You sailors know what it takes to stop the ship sinking. Either that or Abandon Ship!:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

And sadly, an economic plan is what the SNP lacks. I think they still think they will be in receipt of the Barnett formula payouts and that whatever remains of the UK will pay for Scotland's government expenses!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Sir Keir not opposed to another referendum but will argue against it in May. At least it’s not trying to out Tory the Tories on British nationalism. A strategy that’s cost Labour dearly in Scotland.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

This is not ageing well. ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

John also does a smashing rendition of the Welsh national anthem.
https://youtu.be/WFP5MjUuzsg

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I did feel a bit sorry for him here and to his credit, he did later learn the words. But it's amusing in a Spitting Image type of way! :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Andrew Neil calls this a significant thread.

https://twitter.com/JohnFerry18/stat...85984675225602

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

England.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I await the opinion of our resident economist.;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

We all know what I’ll say anyway, so I’ll save us the bother.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Awwww, I had my popcorn and drinks all ready.:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

God help us if she gets her way, We all belong together as one and I pray we stay that way,