Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

Cable Forum (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/index.php)

- Current Affairs (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/forumdisplay.php?f=20)

- - Brexit (Old) (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33706539)

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35975439)

The irony of a leave voter asking for evidence of post-Brexit reality.

Irrelevant.

I’m in a discussion forum, someone has made a claim, i’m Asking them to support that claim with evidence.

I would do this regardless of the subject of the discussion.

No irony move on, i’ll Entertain another pithy comment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35975435)

Are you going to back that statement with any evidence?

Indeed, we could make food less expensive, by importing food and not having to impose EU tariffs

https://iea.org.uk/the-eus-thousands...nish-the-poor/

https://fullfact.org/europe/will-get...fs-help-worst/

From your second link

Quote:

The value of the pound has fallen since the referendum, and that has increased pressure on food and drink prices for everyone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35975443)

From your second link

You don’t get off that easy.

Show me evidence of 50% of the food we import will be more expensive.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35975440)

I challenge anyone to prove via any quantifiable means a projection using recognised economic models that the United Kingdom will be better off leaving the European Union than remaining?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35975445)

I challenge anyone to prove via any quantifiable means a projection using recognised economic models that the United Kingdom will be better off leaving the European Union than remaining?

You still don’t get it. Leaving the nasty EU frees us from their shackles. Releases us from the French dominated CAP. Frees us from Germany hegemony. Sticks two fingers up to the perfidious Varadkar. Their food may cost us more if we import it; other people’s same food would cost us the same or less tariff free.

Sodding economic models mean very little given the variables and in many cases flawed assumptions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35975444)

You don’t get off that easy.

Show me evidence of 50% of the food we import will be more expensive.

Past history...

https://www.ft.com/content/84807466-...8-7a9fb7d6163e

Quote:

Britain imports about half of its food, mostly from the EU, and the supermarkets have passed on higher costs to shoppers after initially absorbing the fall in the pound to maintain market share.

Vegetable prices have risen by 5.7 per cent during the past year. Coffee, tea and cocoa prices were 8.5 per cent higher in October than the same time last year, while meat was 3.9 per cent more expensive.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a7176156.html

Quote:

The price of pasta and other groceries has increased since the vote to leave the European Union, new data has shown.

The hikes are because of a weaker pound, which has made imported products - which the UK is highly dependent on - more expensive.

Price comparison website mysupermarket.co.uk, which compares all major UK stores, found the price of a shop rose by one per cent in July. In June, the price of 35 products was £82.83. However, following the Brexit vote, the same items cost £83.44...

..."A weaker pound will mean higher imported food value. I would say to government … [it] could easily be held to ransom by other parts of the world if there is a climatic disaster or if currency is weak.”

https://www.theweek.co.uk/77592/cost...blown/page/0/4

Quote:

Consumer prices rose on average by 1.6 per cent year-on-year, says the Office for National Statistics, up from 1.2 per cent in November and above a consensus forecast for a 1.4 per cent increase.

The figures show that the "fall in the pound since the Brexit vote was starting to feed into the economy", said the BBC.

Increasing food prices were a major contributor to the headline rate, an "ominous" sign that "years of falling food prices appear to be coming to an end"

Your links were forecasts/hypotheses/predictions*, my links are to actual events that happened.

*forecasts/hypotheses/predictions, when used by Government/BoE/economists, are rubbished by Brexiters**...

**including the poster quoted below

---------- Post added at 21:46 ---------- Previous post was at 21:45 ----------

[/COLOR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35975446)

You still don’t get it. Leaving the EU frees us from their shackles. Releases us from the French dominated CAP. Frees us from Germany hegemony. Their food may cost us more if we import it; other people’s same food would cost us the same or less tariff free.

Sodding economic models mean very little given the variables and in many cases flawed assumptions.

You missed out "nasty" and "perfidious"... ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35975447)

Past history...

Congratulations on your google search that couldn’t Back up your claim.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35975447)

Past history...

https://www.ft.com/content/84807466-...8-7a9fb7d6163e

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a7176156.html

https://www.theweek.co.uk/77592/cost...blown/page/0/4

Your links were forecasts/hypotheses/predictions*, my links are to actual events that happened.

*forecasts/hypotheses/predictions, when used by Government/BoE/economists, are rubbished by Brexiters**...

**including the poster quoted below

---------- Post added at 21:46 ---------- Previous post was at 21:45 ----------

[/COLOR]You missed out "nasty" and "perfidious"... ;)

Oops. Corrected now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35975446)

So there’s no recognised model?

Europe couldn't pay me £100 to go there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35975451)

So there’s no recognised model?

I’m not going to fall for that one. You don’t get what Brexit is about and what it means to the majority that won the Referendum. Not you nor the other Remainers in this thread. You seem to value the economy as per status quo higher than our release from shackles, after which we will have no problem with continued economic development. Wobbles on the way -sure. But free from that perfidious bunch of federalists.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35975453)

In French, I translate the above paragraph into "non". :D

---------- Post added at 22:13 ---------- Previous post was at 22:09 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 35975452)

Europe couldn't pay me £100 to go there.

No need to - you're currently in Europe. :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35975454)

In French, I translate the above paragraph into "non". :D

---------- Post added at 22:13 ---------- Previous post was at 22:09 ----------

No need to - you're currently in Europe. :D

and he will still be we just leaving EU not continent of Europe ;);)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 35975456)

and he will still be we just leaving EU not continent of Europe ;);)

although it would be nice to 'up anchor' and drift down to the Canaries :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35975451)

So there’s no recognised model?

Looks like some people want me address this stupid question.
I do a lot of statistical work and have a decent understanding of the maths and methods. Of course I’m no economist (though I have a modest understanding of economic modelling from a year’s workmI did in the 1980s).

The essence of economic modelling is for the variables that combine to form economic output to be rationally applied. Rationally is important because these variables are highly dependent on psychological assessment of human behaviour in many dimensions. How that is applied is never explained. So, when every rational combination has been applied, the various outcomes are predicted.

What we never see is the result of each case; we only see whatever someone wants us to see. The variables are never explained to us - all we see is headlines, particularly if they are dramatic.

I expect a certain contributor to spend time picking holes in the above.

The real thing about Brexit is to get away from the EU shackles and build on that.