Cable Forum - Britain outside the EU

UK membership of the trans-Pacific trade agreement...

...a summary of the Government’s own modelling of the economic impact of accession. It said that the estimated increase in UK GDP in the long run was 0.08%.

0.08% of current GDP (£2300 billion) is an increase of £1.8 billion per year (in the "long run") - for comparison, the GDP of Wokingham (population 178,000) is £9.4 billion...

OLD BOY

31-03-2023 12:06

Re: Britain outside the EU

Well, the government believes that the CPTPP deal will cut tariffs for UK exporters to a group of nations which will have a total GDP of £11 trillion.

The CPTPP is forecast to grow way faster than the EU over the course of the next 30 years, and we were quick to perceive that the EU will be in decline in relative terms.

Joining a bloc like this will also create many opportunities for business, including services, our main source of income. Forecasts will not account for that, of course, because those opportunities have yet to be seized. You cannot quantify the new opportunities that business will identify until that has happened.

ianch99

31-03-2023 13:57

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36149015)

Forecasts will not account for that, of course, because those opportunities have yet to be seized. You cannot quantify the new opportunities that business will identify until that has happened.

Sounds familiar? The faithful still praying for those sunlit uplands ...

denphone

31-03-2023 15:06

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36149022)

Sounds familiar? The faithful still praying for those sunlit uplands ...

Come on we have got Blue passports Ian.;)

ianch99

31-03-2023 15:30

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36149028)

Come on we have got Blue passports Ian.;)

Mine is still an EU, burgundy, one .. one of the last :) Of course, we always could have had blue passports :D

TheDaddy

31-03-2023 17:25

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36149028)

Come on we have got Blue passports Ian.;)

Made in Holland iirc

Hugh	31-03-2023 17:40

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36149036)

Made in Holland iirc

Not any more - they were bought out by the French Thales Group...

The blank passports are made by Thales in Tczew, Poland, but the personal details and photo are printed onto the passport by Thales in Durham.

GrimUpNorth

31-03-2023 19:54

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36149015)

The CPTPP is forecast to grow way faster than the EU over the course of the next 30 years, and we were quick to perceive that the EU will be in decline in relative terms.

Is that 30 real world years or 30 streaming TV world years?

But being serious, will the forecast growth offset (or even scratch the surface off) the losses we've experienced since leaving the EU?

daveeb

31-03-2023 20:14

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 36149044)

Is that 30 real world years or 30 streaming TV world years?

But being serious, will the forecast growth offset (or even scratch the surface off) the losses we've experienced since leaving the EU?

What a gloomster, have faith, we've already recouped 0.08% with the Asia deal. Halcyon days to come with suntans galore on the glorious uplands :rolleyes:

Hugh	31-03-2023 21:39

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveeb (Post 36149046)

What a gloomster, have faith, we've already recouped 0.08% with the Asia deal. Halcyon days to come with suntans galore on the glorious uplands :rolleyes:

We’re going to potentially recoup 0.08% in around 10 years…

daveeb

31-03-2023 21:43

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36149047)

We’re going to potentially recoup 0.08% in around 10 years…

Even better, not the 50 years as advised by the ex Brexit Opportunitiies minister. That's what I call progress :erm:

Sephiroth

31-03-2023 22:39

Re: Britain outside the EU

I see all the Remainers piling in on OB. Not one of them has said that the opportunity raised by every trade deal now lies in the hands of British business.

Badenoch sent me an email which sort of makes my point:

Quote:

After 21 months of negotiations, we have just signed our biggest trade deal since leaving the EU – becoming the first European country to join the most dynamic trading bloc in the world, now worth £11 trillion.

With 500 million people, tariff free trade with CPTPP countries will boost our economy by billions, support thousands of new British jobs, and drive economic growth in all corners of our United Kingdom.

From beverage producers in Scotland, to machinery manufacturers in Wales and car manufacturers in Northern Ireland, businesses across the country will benefit from free trade with 11 dynamic countries expected to make up the majority of global growth in the future.

Despite the naysayers, we are delivering on the benefits of Brexit. Labour and their social media supporters will try and talk this deal down and claim it isn’t of real benefit.

This is their usual declinism. Only the Conservatives have confidence in the UK and understand what the vision of a global modern Britain would mean. We will create new opportunities for British business.

OLD BOY

31-03-2023 23:05

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36149047)

We’re going to potentially recoup 0.08% in around 10 years…

That’s from existing business. This deal is about opportunity.

1andrew1

31-03-2023 23:36

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36149052)

Car manufacturers in Northern Ireland? :confused: I know that we need to believe more and if we do so, economic laws, transport costs and time zone differences will disappear overnight.

But I never expected we would have to believe that De Lorean was still in business to avoid being accused of the charge of declinism! :D

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