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OLD BOY 24-09-2019 19:02
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36011546)
The electorate.
By that measure, all MPs are 'popular'.

1andrew1 24-09-2019 19:04
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36011548)
I think everyone knows an election is coming soon either way. They just want to make sure Boris Johnson is getting as much bad press as possible, although I don't think they're nearly adept at it as Dominic Cummings is.

I think the election result is really up in the air. In terms of seats it's easier to see where the Tories lose seats (Scotland, Lib/Tory marginals) but it's not clear where they win them. They're betting the house on large swings from Labour Brexiters but if they've miscalculated that then....
Sensible analysis. The Conservatives have inflicted damage on themselves with the expulsions, they are weakened in the geographies you have described with Scotland being self-inflicted and Corbyn has played the whole Brexit shall I/shan't I game effectively.

OLD BOY 24-09-2019 19:11
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36011552)
Sensible analysis. The Conservatives have inflicted damage on themselves with the expulsions, they are weakened in the geographies you have described with Scotland being self-inflicted and Corbyn has played the whole Brexit shall I/shan't I game effectively.
:D:D:D We'll see shortly what the electorate makes of that!

1andrew1 24-09-2019 19:16
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36011557)
:D:D:D We'll see shortly what the electorate makes of that!
Well, 43% of the public think BoJo should step down v 39% saying carry on. Indeed, what a carry-on it has been under BoJo. :D
https://yougov.co.uk/

jfman 24-09-2019 19:19
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
By 49 to 30 they think proroguing Parliament was unlawful?

ianch99 24-09-2019 19:25
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
In normal times the AG would resign ... Sending Mr Mogg to Balmoral to mislead the Queen is not the done thing ..

1andrew1 24-09-2019 19:27
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36011563)
By 49 to 30 they think proroguing Parliament was unlawful?
I would have thought it higher but people are voting along political not legal limes.

daveeb 24-09-2019 19:33
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36011568)
I would have thought it higher but people are voting along political not legal limes.
Indeed, but I would say the Attorney General was more of a legal lemon ! ;)

richard s 24-09-2019 19:34
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
End of the Tory Party I wonder... Rees-Mogg as PM.. O deary me.

pip08456 24-09-2019 19:35
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Let's just have an election, Con's will get in, Boris will still be leader we will leave on the 31st Oct. Simples.

jfman 24-09-2019 19:37
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36011576)
Let's just have an election, Con's will get in, Boris will still be leader we will leave on the 31st Oct. Simples.
Much like 29th March there absolutely zero chance of now leaving on 31st October.

pip08456 24-09-2019 19:47
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36011578)
Much like 29th March there absolutely zero chance of now leaving on 31st October.
Zero chance of the EU granting an extention to A50.

jfman 24-09-2019 19:56
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36011581)
Zero chance of the EU granting an extention to A50.
Heard that before too.

£1bn a month remember.

Pierre 24-09-2019 20:09
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36011578)
Much like 29th March there absolutely zero chance of now leaving on 31st October.
That’s the only certainty at the moment.

Hugh 24-09-2019 20:13
Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36011576)
Let's just have an election, Con's will get in, Boris will still be leader we will leave on the 31st Oct. Simples.
We can’t hold an election where BJ will be PM (if he wins) before the 31st October, even if he calls one* tomorrow or Thursday, as a general election would need to follow a strict timetable specified in law - Parliament has to be dissolved at least 25 working days before polling day, and by tradition, polling day is on a Thursday.

If he picked Thursday October 31 for polling day (27 working days from now), dissolution would need to take place on Thursday September 26th (but the results wouldn’t be available until the 1st of October).

So, for BJ to call* and win an election so he would still be leader by 31st October, Parliament would need to be dissolved tomorrow.


*which he can’t


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