Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The problem is he wants to end it at any cost, just so he can say he has ended it, without any care for what happens in the future.

Ukraine has shown they're willing to end it, but they want an agreement to involve the US in backing their remaining territory. Otherwise Russia will rearm and come again in a few years. Ukraine needs rapid rearmament and economic recovery to secure their border again this with.

Trump seems to want Ukraine to concede to whatever they and Russia cook up. If Ukrainian sovereignty isn't protected, they'll keep fighting as any country would.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The issue is a guarantee from the US as Europe is not militarily strong enough to give this on its own.

If the US can step up and provide this guarantee, US companies will benefit from exploiting Ukrainian minerals and in weapon sales and good links with Europe. Otherwise, Russia will continue its invasion and Ukraine will continue defending its sovereignty.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Europe is militarily absolutely strong enough to provide sufficient mass to repel any Russian invasion. If that wasn’t apparent in 2022 it is blindingly obvious today, as Russia expends 1,000 soldiers a day while moving the front line less than a mile a month. Europe’s problem is that it has no significant unified command structure outside of Nato and its military capacity is split across nations with different political views that don’t necessarily align. The risk in a Europe-only security guarantee is that Putin is more likely to calculate that it is worth testing it on a target that enough European leaders will decide is ‘not worth world war 3’ - a Baltic state, perhaps, or even just a bit of one, sufficient to connect Kaliningrad to the mainland.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Soldiers are an important element but is Europe not weak in air power?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

While I can understand the importance of protest he is on holiday with young children who do not need to see that sort of anger. Something quiet but firm and just once would show that Daddy did something that people didn't like. Protesters don't have to behave like Daddy or Daddy's boss.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

JD Vance, February 14th, Munich

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

He's just a snowflake using his family as human shields. He could have gone separately from them.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No. NATO minus the USA still easily outmatches Russia almost everywhere. It’s not even close.

Have a look at https://armedforces.eu/compare/count...TO_without_USA

… also bear in mind that these stats seem not to have not been updated in the last 2 years - Russia has lost more than 10,000 tanks, 20,000 combat vehicles, 300 aircraft and 24,000 artillery pieces since invading Ukraine in 2022.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Also bear in mind that Russia has a smaller GDP than Italy, France, Germany, and the U.K., and a smaller per capita GDP than most of the each individual European counties - it can’t afford for this war to keep running, and it’s used most of it’s military equipment reserves, and is having difficulty replenishing them due to sanctions.

Inflation is at 10%, the base rate is at 21%, with company bankruptcies up 26% on the previous year - lowering the Russian Government’s tax revenues.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Is not the reality we now face is that Trump (or "Agent Orange" as he is being referred to on social media) is effectively negotiating on behalf of Putin. This is very clear to all. He is more interested in making money out of what is left of Ukraine up until the time his handler decide to claim the remaining parts at which point he will say "I'm out of here".

What the Trump/Putin apologists are not addressing is the question of trust. If Putin is given the land he has taken and then says: "Ok, I'll stop here and won't proceed further", who on this planet actually believes him, apart from Trump. Until Trump gives in and guarantees a USA military response, in conjunction with Europe, Putin will not be stopped.

Of course, this does not address the invasion and 20% of Ukraine he has taken. If a ceasefire deal is done along the current front line with a US backstop then Putin is rewarded for aggression. Not a good precedent.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia is on it's arse it's military is mostly spent this is the time for a western boot on Putin's throat, threats about nuclear war are not even credible, trump is throwing Putin a lifeline.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It isn’t a good precedent and even with US assurances it’s not a good deal. Unless the USA is going to put actual soldiers on the frontier, assurances are worthless. And Trump is not going to do that under any circumstances.

Aside from all that, a ceasefire on the current line of contact leaves Ukraine with no access to the Sea of Azov, no prospect of rebuilding the Kakhova Dam, the Kerch Strait Bridge intact and Russia still in control of Crimea and able to rebuild its naval infrastructure there. That renders the remainder of Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, the coastline either side of Odesa, under threat.

It is strategically untenable for Ukraine to sign away the land Russia presently occupies. It’s all too easy to dismiss this as a ‘maximalist demand’ as if Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians as a nation are making unreasonable preconditions. Their territorial integrity and future security is at stake. It is blindingly obvious they are not going to let any of that territory go unless they have no option.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That's reassuring to know.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don't get it. Trump doesn't himself hold all the cards.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Trump want's paying for helping Ukraine in the past, then he want's to dump them, Ukraine has the minerals that trump is desperate to get hold of, i don't think Trump has any cards just a huge ego.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So what’s the answer then? Let them continue to slug it out like two punch drunk fighters until they both collapse? Both go bankrupt and take us with them.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Trump said Europe can offer assurances that Putin won't start the war again. That's one card down.

Does the US have a huge stock of artillery it needs gone :confused:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

just huge stocks of BS and bluster

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Mandelson has outlined the plan. Support Zelensky towards a face saving fold to Trump. This is a pantomime.

America needs its minerals.
The UK wants to avoid tariffs.
Europe wants to pretend it’s relevant.

The lads at Blackrock and Vanguard will be rubbing their hands at all this defence expenditure to save Europe from a country that is on it’s knees that the best propaganda for it’s military might comes from western centrists.

Win. Win. Win.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Reports from Moscow indicate that Russian supplies of French sparkling wine will soon be exhausted as Trump pauses aid to Ukraine.
Wonder how the new leader of the West will respond?
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-pau...raine-13321048

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Hopefully this will get people round the table…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1741106595

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I fear the only part of that letter that Trump will be interested in is the last bit

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

My Nostradamus-esque prediction of 18.08 last night comes to fruition.

Anyone else saying all the words in that statement would have been called a Putin apologist a mere week ago. Be interesting to see how it lands among the bloodthirsty talking heads who were pushing the forever war.

Ukraine joins the list of countries let down by being convenient, short term allies of the United States.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Blackrock have actually acquired the Hong Kong owned port assets on the Panama Canal so you got that
prediction right even if you made it inadvertently!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Don’t worry - even if you didn’t say the words in that statement, we still think you’re a Putin apologist…

I see you’re still promulgating the Russian talking point that anyone who doesn’t want to support Russia running rampant over Ukraine, kidnapping children, executing prisoners-of-war, and deliberately targeting the civilian population, is a "bloodthirsty talking head"…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It’s not the opposing those things that makes someone bloodthirsty it’s the forever war element as the only alternative to “every inch plus Crimea, and Putin in The Hague”.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Observing that Ukraine can never be secure while Russia controls so much of its Black Sea coast, and especially Crimea, is not bloodthirsty or forever-war-ish. It is a statement of objective strategic fact. Ukraine has regained freedom to operate cargo vessels in the western Black Sea by bombing the Russian navy out of Sevastopol. In the event of a truce, Russia can and will rebuild its naval presence there (and it will doubtless also sail a great many ships in from elsewhere to rapidly make up for its losses).

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Taken to extreme Ukraine can never be secure while it borders Russia.

That doesn’t mean it makes any objective strategic sense to fight a war until one, or the other, doesn’t exist. Especially in the absence of skills or resources for the one left to be Ukraine.

In the event of a truce the onus is on everyone to take all steps they reasonably can to offer Ukraine security positioning themselves to readily mobilise in the event of future conflict.

But they won’t, because it was never about that and it’ll cost too much money. Donations to Ukraine are out and cheap Russian gas is in. Won’t be long before London reunites the oligarchs with their billions and asks them to invest. Don’t hold it against us, please. A big boy made us do it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So close to getting it... ;)

Taken to extremes, no country can be secure whilst they border Russia* - you're right...**.

*must be why they all want to join NATO

**because Putin has said they should be part of Greater Russia

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It’s already been demonstrated that Putin’s ability to deliver on his ambitions is weak - which isn’t to say anyone should be passive about the risk. As I said above - there’s a responsibility to Ukraine on everyone who wants to keep the war going and on America should the politicial landscape change.

Ukraine, and the Ukranian families who lost their sons, should be rewarded rather than looted.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Trump turning the knife in Zelenskyy's back.
https://www.ft.com/content/c58fccea-...a-0185b7415579

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Comrade Trump doing as ordered by his masters ?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Seems we're not the only ones who see Trump as a Russian asset:

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025...russian-asset/


---------- Post added at 17:07 ---------- Previous post was at 17:03 ----------

This is interesting if it turns out to be correct: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...zed-rcna193700

It would explain why Trump has no interest in trying to make Putin withdraw from any of the occupied parts of Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

He was elected with a resounding mandate to end the proxy war in Ukraine. Nobody with any reasonable understanding of the situation on the ground expected Ukraine to get back to it’s 2022 borders never mind 2014.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

A resounding mandate? 49.9% vs 48.3% isn't a resounding anything

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It’s as if Putin’s in the room with us…

:rolleyes:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Quick, lock all the windows! :)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If Harris won the same amount of votes, by the same margin, plus took the House and Senate nobody would quibble over the use of “resounding”.

Nor can it be disputed that this was clearly part of Trump’s policy platform. Something that the Biden administration could (and indeed should) have given thought to while developing an exit strategy for the war.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Trump has shown fiddling elections isn't beneath him, so I wonder if Putin agreed to help him win on the condition that he did what he's doing now to aid Russia??

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Think grok might be in trouble with elmo, it said earlier when asked that there is a 75%- 85% chance that donnie is a putin compromised asset :D

Stay away from upstairs windows grok, that's my best advice

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That will leave us trapped inside with "the gas".

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Who’s “we”, paleface?

---------- Post added at 12:15 ---------- Previous post was at 12:14 ----------

Realism, never was your strong point.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

All together now comrades ... :)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Wonder who in Canada is next?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Some fairness in actions against the war :tu:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Putin, thinking about the tariffs against Mexico and Canada...

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2025/03/4.gif

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Considering?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ukraine is massively disadvantaged without US aid. Russia is empowered while Ukraine go at it without the US. If one is to be sanctioned the other should too.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

What did he think Russia was doing?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I made a mistake in my post. I meant without the US.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Trump would think Russia was doing whatever Putin told him to think.

---------- Post added at 17:16 ---------- Previous post was at 17:15 ----------

Only 'considering' does not punish the invader.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Why should Ukraine be sanctioned for doing nothing more than defending itself?

On another note Musk's AI Grock was asked the folliwing.

"Can Ukraine be blamed as "gambling with world war 3" or Russia?"
The answer.

"Ukraine's actions are defensive, responding to Russia's unprovoked invasion in 2014 and full-scale assault in 2022. Russia’s escalation, including nuclear threats and attacks on civilians, heightens global risks, not Ukraine’s defense or NATO support."

Seems Grok is more intelligent than many people.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Or it’s just pooling from whatever English language propaganda has been fed into it. Give it a few years when the history of the period is written and enough material calls it a US proxy war and it might give results with wider context.

I agree tho there’s little value sanctioning Ukraine - it’s all American and European money anyway. The way to force Ukraine to the table is to cut off the logistical support as America have done and test whatever capability or appetite remains to fight. An important lesson for future short term allies to the American cause however hopefully a brief and not too costly one.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Thank you, Vlad…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/news

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Trump is in full traitor mode:

Trump: Ukraine ‘may not survive’

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The war only ends with a negotiated settlement and will inevitably involve Russia keeping some….if not all…the territory it has taken. Why that should come as a surprise to anyone is…..surprising! A return to pre-2014 borders was never….ever on the cards. I’ve said that all along.

The only way it could’ve happened would have been for the Russian economy to completely collapse, it hasn’t. Despite sanctions their oil exports have gone increased, massively.

Lots of countries that have no skin in this war, very happy to purchase Russian oil.

A buffer zone will need to be part of the deal, similar to what exists between N/S Korea manned with UN troops.

In fact, the border of all countries to Russia will need to be addressed, a new Iron Curtain.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1741632628

Senator Kelly was a US Navy combat pilot and flew 39 combat missions during Operation Desert Storm in the Gulf War, then became a NASA astronaut.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Not sure how he can be a traitor if he’s not Ukrainian.

It’s not in America’s interest to plough money and military resources into a bottomless pit for Ukraine to stand still. That was Biden’s strategy.

The Democrats lost the election and Trump has the mandate to dictate American interests in foreign affairs. Biden, Johnson and others made commitments to Ukraine they knew they did not have the authority to deliver long term. Trump didn’t exactly hide his views in the election campaign, nor were voters oblivious to what a realistic future for Ukraine would be without American support.

Forever, and inevitable, war proponents should consider the strategic value of Poland invading Ukraine and extending the NATO land border with Russia. It’s far more effective than a bankrupt rump state that will hate the West anyway once the propaganda subsides.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

America wasn’t ploughing money and military resources into a bottomless pit - most of the money went to US arms manufacturers, to replace and update old/surplus military equipment, and the military aid was costed (inflated) at its replacement value (which the USA was going to do anyway), rather than at its actual depreciated value…

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/new-a...ficial-figures

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ukraine was a friend of the USA's. Trump has betrayed Ukraine which makes Trump a traitor. Trump has betrayed Ukraine by taking Russia's line and holding back on aid and intelligence for the country.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And every dollar of spend or minute spent by weapons manufacturers is time and effort that could be spent re-arming America, America’s long term allies in NATO, in Israel, or preparing for potential conflict elsewhere in the world.

Ukraine may well have been a useful scrapyard for depreciated equipment, and of course to feed the propaganda the USA will have overstated its financial commitment. However as the dynamic changes on the ground its ever increasingly valuable equipment for ever decreasing gains.

---------- Post added at 20:35 ---------- Previous post was at 20:33 ----------

I think this is a pretty naive outlook, Andrew, and it ignores that America have cut and run from every short term ally of the 21st century.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Are they, along with a host of other nations, funding the Ukrainian war effort, or not?

---------- Post added at 21:31 ---------- Previous post was at 21:25 ----------

That is a totally false take.

Trump is taking Trump’s line. He, as part of his election promises, vowed to end the war in Ukraine.

Pressuring Ukraine into talking, is his line not Russia’s

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

As if Trump’s admiration for Putin, and Russia, began during the 2024 election campaign.

If you believe that, something something bridge something something

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Recognising objective reality on the ground (Ukraine are only in the war because of America) requires no admiration for either Putin or Russia.

The US want to end it’s proxy war. If Ukraine wants to continue then it’s entirely reasonable to expect the US to withhold support.

Some of us warned about the chance - indeed likelihood - that America would dispose of Ukraine when it ceased to be convenient. Ukraine haven’t been betrayed by Trump, they’ve been betrayed by those that gave false promises.

Time will tell how Ukrainians will feel about their role in the conflict, the mass displacement of young women and conscription of young men. As Europe pivots to the right the chances of deportations home will increase later in the decade. Once opposition media, political parties and trade unions are reinstated it’ll be interesting to follow Ukrainian discourse and whether in retrospect, with the benefit of hindsight, with all the available facts available, there will be a view that a ceasefire early in the conflict might have been economically, socially and militarily beneficial in the long run.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Did Trump vow to end the war quickly , if not immediately?

Russia hasn’t

So, how is Trump employing all his leverage to get Ukraine into talks for ending the war, taking Russia’s line? It’s his line, to fulfil his promise and his ego. I would have thought by now you would have realised that it’s about him, it’s always about him. If you can’t see that you’re selectively something somenthing, cherrypicking something for narrative something ……….

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://bsky.app/profile/denisedwhee.../3lk2wjkodis2r

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

There is a point that with the US already giving Russia pretty much everything they want, then what's the point of them agreeing to a ceasefire? America is withdrawing support so why not press for more?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Made me smile when you point out that Trump is visibly betraying his erstwhile allies and taking Putin's side, so much so that the Russians are openly thanking him, the Trump/Putin apologists focus on the semantics of the vocabulary used rather than the reality before them. :)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I’m not sure how pointing out the reality before you makes anyone a Trump and/or Putin apologist. It’s not mere “semantics” to point out Trump pledged - in an election campaign of all places - to end the war quickly as possible. It has ceased to be in American national interest according to those who define the national interest. America has no duty to Ukraine or Ukrainian nationalism, any more than it had to Iraq, Afghanistan or all the other places it has cut and run from.

There’s no “winning” for Ukraine on the table. That’s just a collective delusion. A hangover from the “Russia is on its knees” kool aid.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Who'd have thought he'd end it by joining the enemy of 70+ years, wonder if it'd have made a difference to the election if he'd outlined his bold strategy before the vote

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Trusting a politician's pre-election pledges is a one-way ticket to disappointment. Judge politicians by what they do.

In the case of Trump, it's been to throw Ukraine under the bus and repeat Putin's talking points...even when they're wrong.

You only have to look at Trump's support for Israel to see that he is not applying some global disarming strategy across the world to bring peace or has a philosophy around a national interest. He's just doing what Putin (and Netanyahu) hoped he would do to support them...and some!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

He made it quite clear the plan was to talk to both sides and force a settlement. That might appear alien to anyone bogged down in Cold War rhetoric but to anyone with eyes in October it was obvious Trump was going to end the Biden era pretence that Ukraine were any more than a short term ally for the period American and Ukrainian interests aligned.

---------- Post added at 16:06 ---------- Previous post was at 16:02 ----------

I don’t really see how Trump’s approach can be a surprise to anyone given he telegraphed it prior to the election. You may consider letting Ukraine down, and I can understand why given the rhetoric the Biden administration and successive UK governments committed themselves to. However it’s a tale as old as time for American foreign policy.

Similarly so is looking the other way while Israel commit some of the worst atrocities on a civilian population since World War 2. I don’t see what that has to do with Ukraine tho - double standards are a staple of American behaviour.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Will be interesting to see how Russia reacts now that Ukraine has called its bluff.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...atest-12541713

And interesting analysis here
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...atest-12541713

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Indeed, I didn’t hear Ian calling Biden a “traitor” for betraying Afghans, and especially Afghan women, when he decided to stop bankrolling Afghanistan.

But ….you know…..evil Trump. Luxury viewpoints, I’m sure he has all the correct and acceptable viewpoints around the table at dinner parties.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Do you mean the Trump-Taliban deal, that didn’t involve the Afghan Government?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...-deal-taliban/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Where's the link ?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

In the post above mine…

Here’s a direct link

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...#liveblog-body

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia should secure itself first and foremost.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Nice try….and the link is behind a paywall, but I don’t need to read it. In any event Trump wasn’t in power during the withdrawal, so you don’t know how he would have done it, and how it would have gone down with him still as President.

I suspect, a lot better.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Non-paywall archive should you want it:

https://archive.ph/UwZn4

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Actually, Trump’s plan was to withdraw earlier, but don’t let facts get in the way of your assumptions.

Here’s a gifted/readable link…

https://wapo.st/4iDkKt6

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

What happens if Russia rejects the ceasefire proposal? I'm clearly bogged down in the cold War so obviously would expect anyone in a position of strength to reject it and you're an itk on Russia and know they're not on their knees so why would they accept it, especially as donnies already given them what they want, mind you they do, in a very similar way the Soviets used to, keep claiming to be the peacemakers so perhaps there's something in that :shrug:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I repeat, it’s a false equivalence.

Trump was not in power and did not do the withdrawal. So we have no idea how good or bad it would have been.

Biden was in charge and it was a shambles.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Nope, Trump agreed the deal and started it before he left office. Biden was handed a a sht show to deal with. He had no time to amend it or negotiate a better deal.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You have a particular lens through which you understand American military adventurism and it is distorting your view of what’s happening here.

American and Ukrainian interests were perhaps a happy alignment, but the interests here are fundamentally different than pursuing Islamists or Communists in far-flung corners of the world. The defence and stability of Europe, from which sprang the only two wars ever to get so big and bloody as to be dubbed ‘world war’, has the bedrock of US foreign and defence policy since 1945.

Whatever the strengths or weaknesses of the Biden plan, the aim was perfectly aligned with long-term, bilaterally-supported policy of keeping Russia stable and contained in the East, and Europe safe and untroubled with thoughts of massive rearmament in the west. Many of us squealed long and loud about the injustice of giving Ukraine only what it needed to hold on, rather than what it needed to inflict a devastating defeat on Russia (which the US could have done, and would have resulted in a shorter conflict with fewer casualties), but the reasoning behind it is at least understandable in terms of long-term strategy.

Trump is emphatically not acting in the spirit of every US administration since 1945 (barring his own, and in 2017-2021 he didn’t go nearly as far as he is now, though he seemed to want to). He is treating Europe, and this conflict, as a cost-centre on his spreadsheet. He has no grand strategic vision and he has no depth of understanding of why the US is so financially committed to NATO and why settling the Ukraine conflict on terms that favour Russia is a strategic mis-step that will inevitably lead to further conflict down the line.

This, ultimately, is why you’re misunderstanding what you’re seeing - because you’re incapable of seeing Trump is not behaving like any US president since at least 1945. He is not motivated by any of the statescraft that typically motivates someone who gets as far as the presidency. Sure, you can go on construing this as simply the US losing interest in another foreign conflict as it has many times before, but if you do so you will miss the major strategic changes that are underway across Europe, precisely because this is all happening in Europe, the one part of the world that every major power on earth has long agreed is the last place you want massive military proliferation. When you understand that even Germany is poised to change its debt rules to allow it to re-arm, you know something has changed, and not for the better.

This is not special pleading - Europe is different and American policy has long recognised that. Until now.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Also, the US bases in Europe are not only there as a deterrent/protection for the Countries they are in, they are there to support power projection and minimise the "loss of strength gradient*". As we have seen in the current conflict, soldiers win battles, logistics win wars - by having permanent bases in Europe, many of the benefits that US military forces have operating in the United States are replicated overseas, and the loss of strength gradient starts from Europe, rather than the United States.

Also, the bases in Europe allow the USA to react quicker to hot-spots/issues in the Gulf/Mediterranean/Eastern Europe much faster/more consistently than if they had to ship everything over from 'Murica...

* the farther a military is operating from "home", the less power they can project to that area.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yes, was just reading this article on the subject
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/tech...074dd70c2&ei=6

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I guess the question is really whether you view Ukraine as economically, politically or in any military sense (NATO membership) Europe as defined in any kind of post-1945 order. Self-evidently the Biden administration did not, hence being willing to sacrifice it on the battlefield in a war of attrition that you’d never see with Brits, Germans or even Turks. Also self-evidently the Trump administration also does not - merely a useful buffer zone between Poland and Russia.

I’m more than happy with my great powers lens. You don’t get the same optics comparing meetings like that between Rubio, Lavrov and their respective delegations around grand tables with anyone else. You get Starmer and his coalition of the willing at school desks arranged like three sides of a square.

Europe is being successfully mugged for defence spending by the US. Nothing has actually materially changed in respect of whether there is an actual threat from Russia to the European - EU, NATO, etc. borders.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Actually I’d argue that Europe and Biden’s White House saw it as a useful buffer zone between Poland and Russia. Trump sees it as he sees everything - a business opportunity and/or an opportunity for narcissistic supply (to the extent he can prove himself to Putin, whom he admires) and, now the problem has proven to be more complex than his limited intellect assumed, a risk of narcissistic injury.

I’m aware there is an argument that Trump is being awfully clever and simply trying to get Europe to pay its way. Maybe he is, but if so, that again is a function of his lack of intellect and not his skills at 4D chess. He is emboldening the Russians, who this week have started opining that they don’t think any sort of cease-fire is necessary. (Note also, at the exact same time Ukraine seems to have convinced the Americans that a peace plan preceded by a 30-day cease fire actually is a good idea, a Russian-captained vessel manages to bullseye an American tanker full of USAF jet fuel off the English North Sea coast - I’m blessed to know a number of current and former members of HM armed forces and absolutely none of them think this is a coincidence).

As to whether there is an active threat to NATO from Russia, well, while Trump, whether recklessly or due to some perceived master plan, is making such love to the Russians with his grand promises of getting them the Donbas, Crimea and who knows what else, arguably yes there very much is. I leave you in the capable hands of Mike Martin MP, former squaddie and current member of multiple relevant Parliamentary committees, who has just returned from a fact-finding visit to Estonia.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...424157861.html

It is well worth reading the whole thing.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Nonsense, He’s the president of the US, they’re thevTaliban, he could have done anything he wanted.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

There was an agreement in place. Biden stuck to it as he had no choice. Direct quote from Trump after he had left office at a rally
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/ti...m-afghanistan/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Of course he had a choice, What was preventing Biden from ignoring, or changing the agreement, or at the very least the timeline?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Not possible as the process had already begun. The quote from Trump is literally there for you to read!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The fact withdrawl was already well in motion, by the time sleepy Joe got the top job there were only 2500 American troops left in the whole country, 5000 Taliban had been released to rejoin the insurgency including iirc their leader, to turn it round then would have meant a monumental cost in both lives and money, there was no choice

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The problem is if you ask nurses they say we need to spend more on healthcare, you ask teachers they say education, you ask the military industrial complex and they say defence. Scaremongering stories about what could happen elsewhere ignore that the Ukraine issue (Russian narratives or otherwise) was a decade in the making.

The short story, while an entertaining read, seems to ignore that it’s not the absence of troops or equipment preventing intervention - it’s not having an independent foreign policy from the United States (Article 5 or otherwise).

I don’t think there’s anything 4D chess about straightforward extortion. Trump could have picked up the idea from countless TV movies about “the mob”.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Surprisingly, on these points, we are in substantial agreement :D

---------- Post added at 09:28 ---------- Previous post was at 09:16 ----------

I should add by the way that Mike Martin’s ‘short story’ was actually a Xitter thread compiled by a thread-reader app, which may have given the impression that it was presented as a more substantial piece of analysis than it was intended to be. As a threaded series of posts on Twitter it should be taken for what it is - a simple set of observations. His proposal is that we don’t realise how quickly Art.5 could crumble in the current climate and I think his outline scenario demonstrates that. The strategic failings that brought us here aren’t ignored, they’re just part of a different discussion he happens not to have addressed here.