Re: Brexit
 

Think tank or lobby group? Or "think tank"? ;)

Re: Brexit
 

tbf, it doesn’t want it abolished - it recommends the NHS should look at some of the options that Francecand Germany use (very successfully).

Re: Brexit
 

Change UK splits as six of 11 MPs become independents.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48515505

Re: Brexit
 

Just a new bit of project fear taken down hook line and sinker by some.:rolleyes:

So the ramshackle grouping of Westminster traitors implodes. One can't but laugh.

Re: Brexit
 

They are going through quite a bit of change at the moment. ;)
But, please let's not use the term traitor just because you disagree with someone's viewpoint.

---------- Post added at 19:38 ---------- Previous post was at 18:37 ----------

Farage given 24 hours by the European Parliament to explain why he did not declare Aaron Banks' funds.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...on-banks-funds

Re: Brexit
 

As pointed out elsewhere the terms of a trade deal would likely seek to make regulation more favourable to American drug and healthcare companies. They won't seek to make the NHS disappear but they will want to protect their interests and maximise profits for the contracts they seek. There are all sorts of things they might push for, most of which I don't really understand to do with how contracts for medicines are made, but a lack of regulation in favour of private business is unlikely to benefit us as taxpayers or patients.

Re: Brexit
 

It's in the trade agreement, the US side have all but finished their side of it apparently and that's in it

Re: Brexit
 

Not on the tenders I've worked on. They have a host of requirements which effectively limit the geographical location where the services can be delivered from.

Re: Brexit
 

The big sticking point during the TTIP talks was the option that private businesses had the option to sue Governments if they did things to negatively impact those businesses.

This is a huge deal in the health industry as public health initiatives can and do affect the profits of the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry who have a vested interest in people being sick

Re: Brexit
 

How the US trade deal undermined Australia’s PBS (Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme).

Re: Brexit
 

Any regulations would be the SAME as for ANY company from ANYWHERE in the world. They would be operating in this country and would therefore be classed as a UK company. It is the EU that goes around insisting on common regulations in order to make everything as expensive as in Germany.

Re: Brexit
 

We're talking about a trade deal with the US in which they would request tailored regulation.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Sound unfamiliar?


Pharmaceuticals have come a long way and expanded enormously since then. The costs of developing them has increased more than exponentially since then.

Re: Brexit
 

Drug company profits have increased exponentially too.

Re: Brexit
 

At the end of last year, over14 Pharma companies posted over $1 billion dollars in profit (that's after all expenses, including the large (up to 15%) R&D budgets).

https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...s-over-1b.html

Historically, profits have risen.

Some interesting facts from Fortune magazine - http://fortune.com/2019/03/01/drug-c...es-rd-profits/ (I will declare an interest - my brother-in-law has worked for Big Pharma/Biotech* for the last 26 years, after his 10 years in Academia).

*Pfizer, Teva, Regeneron (joint R&D with Sanofi)

Re: Brexit
 

Maggie saw it coming.

https://www.facebook.com/thegrocerda...99&v=e&sfns=mo

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

It is important that the referendum is respected because if it isn’t, it will be very hard to resolve anything else via a referendum in the future. And also because both main parties went into the last election explicitly promising to respect and implement the result.

Re: Brexit
 

Looking at Pfizer's financial report, and the profits can vary enormously from year to year. Those profits are taxed and provide income for pension schemes.



Divide those profits by the quantities produced to assess how much cheaper a product might be.

Re: Brexit
 

My bro-in-law’s (future) pension (one of a few) is with Pfizer (he spent 12 years there as a Research Director and Research VP), and he is very happy with their consistently good profits, as they feed into his pension.

Your point doesn’t diminish the fact that the profit margins in Pharma are consistently higher than most businesses, even considering the R&D (which reduces tax) and pension contributions (which reduces tax).

Re: Brexit
 

I think the leverage the US would have if we entered into trade negotiations with them having not yet secured any other trade deal is a good argument to square of a deal with the EU first.

Re: Brexit
 

The EU is our biggest market so our biggest priority. Other countries will need to know what deal we have with them before signing a deal with us.
I still think if Boris comes in, he could be the one to keep on kicking Brexit down the road, a road akin to the M25 in shape!

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

I didn't define Brexit, I just stated our obvious top priority in terms of trade. Anyway, we have a bit of breathing space as Brexit is unlikely to happen in October anyway.

Re: Brexit
 

So it's all about waving the Union Jack and stuff, jobs, healthcare, the economy.. Sovereignty we already have. The more I hear about Brexit, the more crazy it all seems.

---------- Post added at 11:48 ---------- Previous post was at 11:46 ----------

October which year! ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Unless this is the new PM
Dominic Raab prepared to BREAK UP PARLIAMENT to force no deal Brexit - 'Out by October'

TORY leadership hopeful Dominic Raab has vowed he is will to do whatever it takes to ensure the UK leaves the EU by the end of October - including breaking up Parliament until after the Halloween deadline.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ip-race-latest

Re: Brexit
 

He'll stay whatever the herd who are voting want to hear. The reality will be different as it was for TM and her unmovable March date...

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

That would be constitutionally difficult. The PM doesn’t have the power directly to prorogue Parliament. The Queen does. He would have to ask her to do it, and would be doing so explicitly to prevent Parliament exercising its sovereign right to make legislation. Setting the Crown and Parliament against each other in that way would be constitutional dynamite. If it were known that a PM was considering such a move, I predict a message would arrive from the palace saying something along the lines of, “if you were minded to ask for a prorogation, her majesty would be minded to refuse.” As a result of which, the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom would be preserved by the PM not asking, and Her Maj not having to refuse, and Parliament carrying on as it sees fit.

Re: Brexit
 

I think that's just electioneering with each candidate trying to out-Brexit the next. Can't see anyone bringing this level of constitutional crisis in.

Re: Brexit
 

I think the speaker would work to allow a vote of No Confidence, which with the threat of a prorogue may well be won, before the PM had the chance. In which case the palace only needs to stall rather than take a position.

Re: Brexit
 

Anarchy in the UK . . or have we passed that stage already?

:LOL:

Re: Brexit
 

In my scenario the palace isn’t taking a position - merely indicating what position it would take if asked. The key is “if asked” ... anyone being considered for an honour, for example, is asked, whether they would accept it *if* they were asked. In that sense, nobody actually offered a gong by the Queen ever refuses.

The way Royal power is used is a key aspect of our constitutional settlement, and the threat of its use, or the threat of withholding it, is arguably even more powerful in situations like this.

Raab is a long way from power at the moment but his words are ill-advised and I suspect if he did get the top job he would go cool on the idea of prorogation long before it became an immediate issue. There are plenty of people more intimately acquainted with the constitution than he is who would most likely spell this out for him before it even got to the point of the palace informally warning him that the queen would decline to cause a constitutional showdown between the Crown and Parliament.

Re: Brexit
 

Yeah I get what you're saying, I was just thinking about alternatives. Especially is Raab decided to try anyway.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Talking of not annoying the Queen: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1559822301

Re: Brexit
 

Interesting bit of whataboutism..

Still, I would argue that for the process to be fair (and democratic), then if *either* side cheated there should be penalties. They certainly should not profit by cheating.

Re: Brexit
 

Presumably, anarchy is defined as giving the electorate what they voted for in your house. :rolleyes:

---------- Post added at 17:26 ---------- Previous post was at 17:22 ----------

People tend to complain about 'whataboutism' when someone points out that the thing about which they complain is also done at least in equal measure by those the complainant supports. It's called getting a bit of balance into the argument.

Re: Brexit
 

There is no argument, two wrongs don't make a right, end of. Attempting to deflect criticism by saying the other side were at it won't wash, it's not balance to an argument it's excusing deceit and if anything good comes out of this shambles it's that the public won't accept this behaviour anymore

Re: Brexit
 

If X does something(often repeatedly) without complaint and then Y does a supposedly similar thing and the complaints flood in, then it's not unreasonable to point out the bias and prejudice in the complaints about Y.

Re: Brexit
 

I hated algebra....

Re: Brexit
 

Who wasn't complaining, I've been banging on about it for years on here, in fact the first red rep I received was for being naive for expecting politicians to tell the truth and to be held to account if they don't, glad after all these years the public is starting to say we've had enough and this isn't good enough

Re: Brexit
 

Labour increase their majority in Peterborough, might have got an even bigger increase if it wasn't for that guy up there dressed as elmo, he'd have got my vote every time

Re: Brexit
 

Here are the vote percentages.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48532869

Re: Brexit
 

Good news in there for everyone except for the now-leaderless party.

Re: Brexit
 

Hardly surprising given the demographics of Peterborough.

Re: Brexit
 

Bless...

<hears dog whistle faintly in the background>

Re: Brexit
 

It's a little thing called facts.

Re: Brexit
 

I know - those Italians get everywhere...


https://www.peterborough.gov.uk/news...-peterborough/

Re: Brexit
 

I wouldn’t be crowing if I were the Labour this morning. That result was a lot closer than they will have liked. Opposition parties are meant to hold their seats at by elections. They frequently do so with increased majorities. Increasing the majority by 76 while also losing 17% of your support relative to 2017 is nothing to brag about, especially when you’ve just been run to the wire by a party that didn’t exist 2 months ago.

If this result shows anything it’s that Labour’s support in Peterborough has collapsed and they’ve hung on only because the Tories tend to lose even more votes to the Brexit Party than Labour does. If a new Tory leader can deliver Brexit and neutralise Farage, he could wipe the floor with Corbyn in a subsequent general election.

Re: Brexit
 

l see Mr Farage sneaked out of the back door before the result was announced...

Re: Brexit
 

Less that 700 votes in it, that's not bad for a party that is only 2 months old.

Re: Brexit
 

Labour has a in-built core vote.

Re: Brexit
 

They do around here [benefit claimants] thankfully they lost the local election for the first time.

Re: Brexit
 

But lost 17% of their vote.

---------- Post added at 08:38 ---------- Previous post was at 08:35 ----------

It also shows that the result in Peterborough wouldn’t change in a 2nd referendum.

Re: Brexit
 

Yes that was funny turned up to make a victory speech, then scuttled off when he got wind of the result :)

Re: Brexit
 

Yes almost as funny as when your side lost the Referendum.

Re: Brexit
 

His predicted landslide obviously never materialised....

Re: Brexit
 

maybe not, but he got 29% from a standing start. now if that replicated across a general election, obviously he wouldn't get that much across the board.

But it would have hung parliament written all over it, with the Brexit party in the position to be king makers. Not an attractive thought for either Labour or Tory.

Re: Brexit
 

Personally my own thoughts are that a hung parliament is quite likely at the next General Election with the Conservative and Labour party losing more votes to the Brexit party and the Lib Dems..

Re: Brexit
 

Keep repeating it, some people might believe you...

The BP was incorporated in November 2018, formally announced in January 2019, registered with the Electoral Commission in February 2019, and it launched in April 2019 - none of those dates are "only 2 months old"...

Re: Brexit
 

Depends what date in April it was launched.

Re: Brexit
 

Bless.

---------- Post added at 10:31 ---------- Previous post was at 10:05 ----------

The 12-4-19 wasn't it.

Re: Brexit
 

Just less than 2 months ago.

Re: Brexit
 

Just remind me how long standing the Cons and Labour have been around? The BP have done a great job so far.

The only down side to this is how long can they hold this fort for? They might have the numbers now but in the long haul they might just fade out it would have been nice if they had won that seat.

Re: Brexit
 

Prof Sir John Curtice thoughts on the Peterborough byelection.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

Re: Brexit
 

Johnson's case case is underway. Summonses against Boris Johnson quashed. Reasons to follow, key thing seems to be that the district judge may have extended the scope of misconduct in public office.

Re: Brexit
 

Fair enough - launched less than two months ago, incorporated 7 months ago; the party is not less than 2 months old.

Re: Brexit
 

The case against Boris has been thrown out, no surprise there.

Re: Brexit
 

Not sure what the Labour Party can do about the aspect "And it remains the case that it looks as though the Labour party’s position on Brexit is not anything like adequate for the Labour party to be able to retain the kinds of support they had in the 2017 election."

The LibDems can afford to be 100% anti-Brexit but the Labour Party (and to some extent, the Conservatives) lose support if they move one way or the other too strongly on Brexit.

Re: Brexit
 

Aren't they pro-remain?

Re: Brexit
 

Yes.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Thanks, well-spotted, now corrected. :)

Re: Brexit
 

It's far too early to make such a prediction, Den. With Brexit finally achieved under a new Conservative leader and with the Brexit Party disbanded, the next election could yet provide a good result for the Conservatives at the next General Election.

Corbyn is no longer a credible potential PM - the only way he could get in is with a split Tory vote, which is why the Brexit Party is such a threat to them as things stand.

Re: Brexit
 

Don't know about crowing about it but labour couldn't have tried harder to lose, they put a racist up to replace one that couldn't keep herself outta clink! On the whole I don't think any of the parties will be that unhappy with the result given the turn out was down 20% on the general election, even the tory vote didn't totally collapse

1st :shrug:

Re: Brexit
 

It's certainly better for Labour this morning but only because expectations were so low on the back of the EU results.

Re: Brexit
 

The fly in the ointment is delivering Brexit. The PM may have changed but the maths hasn't. No deal is out of the question and the favourite to be PM - BoJo -is not known for his tenaciousness, negotiating skills or attention to detail. Will his other skills bring everyone together and make it happen?

Re: Brexit
 

I love how people keep saying 'no deal' is out of the question/off the table - when the reality is that over the last 3 years it's been much nearer than the 'deal' that was put forward numerous times :p:

Re: Brexit
 

Boris Johnson wins challenge against court summons over Brexit campaign claims



Addressing Mr Johnson's barrister, Adrian Darbishire QC, Lady Justice Rafferty said: "We are persuaded, Mr Darbishire, so you succeed, and the relief that we grant is the quashing of the summonses."

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-joh...laims-11736851

Re: Brexit
 

That would be me. :D
May have been nearer than Theresa's deal but it's still out of the question/off the table.

Re: Brexit
 

taken from here (Financial Times no less) https://www.ft.com/content/64e7f218-...a-1e14ce4af89b

Certainly doesn't look 'out of the question' to me ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Yes it is if only launched in April, I don’t give a shit if the idea came about months earlier.

When it launched and started campaigning from, is when it matters.

Re: Brexit
 

Do you like salt and vinegar with your pedant’n’chips? :rofl:

Re: Brexit
 

I see that Nigel Farage has handed a letter to Theresa May asking for his party to be involved in negotiations and for there to be WTO Brexit.
Wonder if this stunt was devised in anticipation of his party winning Peterborough?

Re: Brexit
 

Given he handed it in today i would say no.

Re: Brexit
 

Take your choice on how old the Brexit Party is.

The Brexiter's Bible, the Daily Express, on 8th February quotes Farage as saying that the party is a live vehicle which can be mobilised if Brexit is delayed

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...EU-tory-leader

The Brexit Party was registered with the Electoral Commission on 7th February 2019 four months ago.
The logo was added on 4th April.
http://search.electoralcommission.or...rations/PP7931

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Probably doesn’t give a duck...

Re: Brexit
 

Well, don't make the mistake of believing that a 'no deal' will not happen. In my view, it is the most likely of all the options, although they may decide to implement it via a different label!

Re: Brexit
 

Your previous prediction of Theresa May coming back with a great deal that we would all be delighted with has not happened, so I am more than happy with your prediction today. ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Corbyn thinks winning this recent seat puts him in line for running the country... I nearly spit my drink out at the stupidity

Re: Brexit
 

Farage thinks losing this recent seat puts him in line for running the country... I nearly spit my drink out at the stupidity.

Re: Brexit
 

:)Nor do I. On holiday in Mauritius where the official languish is English, the spoken language is French, they drive on the left and the policemen are thin as pencils.

They’re all (not the policemen) asking me about Brexit

Re: Brexit
 

I did indeed say that I firmly believed that Theresa May would be able to secure a deal with the EU when the negativists on here claimed that we would not get past phase 1 of the talks. Remember that, Andrew?

Well, she got past phase 1 and went on to secure a deal with the EU. It's Parliament, not the EU who have failed to sign it off.

She could have done even better and achieved a very good deal, but she caved. We will see if the next PM can do better.

[Admin Insert: Reply to now deleted post-removed]

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

The only thing a new PM could change would be to make it a softer Brexit with a Customs Union & consequently FoM. The ERG would vote Nay, but chances are Labour would support it and thus have the majority needed.

The EU have already stated the WA is not up for negotiation. A few tweaks will not materially change the backstop arrangements.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit....update 8th June Brexit Leave Case