Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It's valid question to ask "In an independent Scotland, where is the money going to come from?", when they are carrying such a large deficit that by itself would be unsustainable. And that's without even paying back their share of the UK debt. At the moment Scotland benefits from lower borrowing rates because of England. How is that holding back Scotland? If England's deficit levels were the same as Scotland's, it would be very expensive for the UK government to borrow.

Denmark and Sweden don't have the Euro because their politicians have this crazy notion of actually respecting the results of a referendum.

England voted for clear Conservative majorities in 1964, Feb 1974, and 2010. Ended up with Labour ruling or a coalition with the Lib-Dems. Also because of by elections after Oct 1974, by 1977, England had a Conservative majority.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Another big assumption you have made against someone who disagrees with you.

It is difficult to deny that referendums are very divisive and create tensions, even within families. The Brexit referendum and its immediate aftermath was extremely damaging and the last Scottish independence referendum was equally damaging.

Those people who are demanding another referendum will never accept the result if it goes against them. Win it, and that's it, no further discussion!

This is such a childish wheeze and everyone can see through it for what it is. I was quite happy to have the Scottish and Brexit referendums at the time, but I am dead against repeating them over and over until the 'right' result is obtained, which of course, would then be 'final'. My opposition to further referendums, and I suspect most people of common sense, is nothing to do with any fear of losing. What I cannot abide is this cynical manipulation of democracy, which is what this is, and you know that.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The same place any Government gets its money from - taxation. It’s entirely speculative to say that Scotland would automatically have an unsustainable deficit or be unable to borrow. It’s also speculative to say that Scotland couldn’t reform it’s taxation system to make it more competitive against other countries (including the EU countries) to facilitate investment.

I agree it’s less than ideal for England to be governed in such a way. English independence would be an excellent idea - win win for everyone. Unless of course, there’s more to it and all is not as it seems with the figures given by London.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

And that is a question that remains unanswered. All they prat on about is 'their' North Sea oil, completely ignoring the fact that not only is this a diminishing resource, but the demand for oil is also reducing as green energy takes over. It simply won't be economic to extract North Sea oil soon, as prices they can get for it tumble due to falling demand.

If the SNP think they can manage outside the UK, maybe they should show us this faith they have in themselves by not accepting any more Barnett formula subsidies.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The good news is Old Boy you’re exactly part of the problem I describe for unionism in Scotland. Unionists howling into an echo chamber of unionism. Fundamentally, as a resident of England and presumably someone born there, you seek to deny the people of Scotland their right to choose their destiny.

Democracy cannot be cynically manipulated if people consistently vote for Governments on a mandate to do something. In 2021 this wouldn’t be a one of wheeze, it would follow the mandate from 2017, and independence would require a mandate of its own following that.

That is, unfortunately, democracy in action.

You believe England bankrolls Scotland, yet want to continue to do so against the will of the people of Scotland. Please come up to Scotland and campaign on this basis. I’ll even pay you. It’ll be hilarious.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm sure the Scots would welcome a massive increase in their taxes! And it would have to be massive just to keep their budget balanced as it is now.

God, there would be even more economic migrants, this time from Scotland, if the SNP gets their way.

---------- Post added at 14:23 ---------- Previous post was at 14:18 ----------

So you think it's ok to repeat referendums time and again until you get the result you want? That is what is cynical. Don't you think we can see through that?

The people of Scotland have already chosen, so I am not denying them anything. You are seeking to trample all over the wishes of a democratic vote, just as the remainers attempted to do over Brexit.

I notice that you haven't denied that England 'bankrolls' Scotland, because you can't, it's a fact.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You’re speculating that reforming the tax system would cause an increase in taxation to individuals. It may not - the aim is to get total tax up - getting investment from overseas by having lower corporate taxes would theoretically increase investment, employment and tax revenues and lower social security spending.

Of course, it suits England to ignore this and stick to the “too wee, too poor, too stupid” mantra. 50% of the Scottish people see right through it.

I have denied that England bankrolls Scotland. The GERS figures are manipulated and not representative of the rational choices that an independent country would make. Ironically the figures show the economic situation worse in all other parts of the UK except England. I also therefore what’s in it for England?

If you are right - why does it bother you so much?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You are saying Scotland should increase it taxes? They have control over income tax. Their problem is the amount of spending. They've become too used to the free money from England, just as East European EU countries would struggle without EU funding. Eg Around 4%(net) of Hungary's and Lithuania's economies are funded by the EU. Even Poland gets a net 2.5% boost.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The left wing orientated SNP would never agree to help business with tax breaks! Good luck with your view that the Scots would come out of separation smelling of roses simply by tinkering with the tax system.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

No I’m saying that the whole system could be reformed to increase investment. The problem with having control of only income tax is that you don’t control other taxes - on dividends for example, or corporation tax, that restricts your ability to meaningfully reform the whole system.

---------- Post added at 14:35 ---------- Previous post was at 14:34 ----------

An independent Scotland wouldn’t necessarily vote SNP. It’d actually create an interesting situation as it’d force Labour and the Tories to come up with policies for a change.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That implies England is being hampered with higher corporation tax.:confused:
SNP

Labour

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It's hard to predict what would happen but I think the IFS report that Pierre highlighted is the best analysis we will find. The added dimensions to this are Brexit and Covid.
I believe Scotland and England are better off in both Unions.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

On the issue of whether or not Scotland *could* be independent ... it’s a strawman argument. Seps frequently recite the line “too wee, too poor, too stupid”, but nobody is making that argument about Scotland. Only seps are putting it forward, as a strawman they can then tear down.

The argument really is whether Scotland could continue to enjoy levels of welfare and other public spending commensurate with an economy the size of the U.K., once it is no longer in the U.K. it is very, very hard to see where the money is coming from in the brave new world nationalists like to paint. They make breezy assertions about Scotland taking control of its destiny as if that is self-evidently better, and fail to address the very real problem of a much richer southern neighbour over which it would no longer have any influence whatsoever. The Union has always been as much about forcing England to put Scotland’s interests ahead of those of other, foreign allies, which at root is why Scotland’s imperial venture at Darien went belly up.

The problem many of the most committed Nats seem to have, when you get them fulminating over Darien, is that they put it down to perfidious Albion as if it were some sort of treachery, rather than simply an independent foreign competitor state acting in its own interests and with regard to a far more important treaty it had made with a far more significant European power (Namely Spain). The debate leading up to the 2014 referendum was likewise characterised by Salmond cheerfully asserting how newly independent England, its government shorn of all obligations to treat Scotland as part of the home territory, would somehow magnanimously give Scotland a free pass on the national debt and chuck in a seat on the Bank of England’s MPC while they were at it.

All that was nonsense on sticks then, and it’s nonsense on sticks now. An independent Scotland would not exist in a vacuum, and no amount of control over its own economic levers will make up for the loss of influence over the way England is run.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You are making the false assumption that how an SNP MP, in London, would act is the same as an MSP in an independent Scotland. The comparative advantages (and disadvantages) would be a consideration in an independent Scotland. For the UK I'd only imagine the Barnett consequential were of consideration - a situation I'd agree as unfair and propose to resolve by removing Scotland from the UK.

---------- Post added at 21:13 ---------- Previous post was at 21:11 ----------

These figures all rely on apprortioning a percentage of 'reserved' spending to Scotland and a proportion of the UK national debt (spiralling) to Scotland. Yet don't allow Scotland to independantly make decisions to resolve the debt issue. Year on year the figures aggregate to the extent they become pointless.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

... which is why the whole separatist case is nuts. It’s just a short hop, skip and a jump from here, to seps convincing themselves, and then each other, that Westminster is the Wastemonster, which has racked up debts against Scotland’s will, and which Scotland therefore has the right to walk away from. Righteous fury is magnified in the echo chamber of places like Twatter and Wingnuts over Scotland, and then leaks out onto the more open and balanced bits of the internet (Like right here) where said Nats simply can’t understand why their devastating logic isn’t accepted at face value.

I have read nothing here in recent days that wasn’t posted, and rebutted, in this thread a thousand times over in the run up to 2014. All the usual self-serving arguments are in play, suggestions that every argument for the union will be received on “the doorstep” with outrage and new converts to separation, suggestions that Scotland is trapped in an English empire, suggestions that Scotland has a right to expect to break up the union and walk away with its share of the assets but without its share of the debt ... absolute bat crazy nonsense.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The SNP at Westminster is the same party as the SNP at Holyrood. Are you saying that the SNP are in favour of cutting corporation tax, but only if it's Scotland only and not the UK. Where do they say that?:rolleyes:
The Scots are in control of their own excess deficit. They are in control of a £52bn budget.
COVID 19 revised budget

Link

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I’m 100% certain it’s the same arguments. That has always been my point.

There’s no compelling case for the Union to a 21st century Scotland. All you’ve got is old unionists dying and independence voters joining the electorate. Like Sinn Fein realises victory will be found in the ballot box, with shifting views, younger people not as entrenched in the past. “Daddy voted Labour, Grandad voted Labour” etc.

I’ve not read anything in recent days of any interest either. However it’s not my side facing a losing battle.

---------- Post added at 22:52 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

I’m saying that the rational decisions of SNP MPs in votes affecting the UK would be different from those by MSPs in an independent Scotland. After all, there’d be no Barnett Formula or trucks of UK Government investment crossing the border - evidenced of course by our great prosperity - so they’d need to get creative.

Can I ask why you care? I got lambasted by a Scottish member about whether I was resident in Scotland or not. There’s a great whiff of English exceptionalism in this thread.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Why is that the barometer?

The UK Government cannot balance the books, despite a decade of austerity. The barometer is surely that it can sustain interest payments as that's seemingly what the rest of the globe does when you look at the aggregate debt of the planet (who to?).

These figures are underpinned by a UK Government interpretation of what an independent Scotland would have as income and expenditure. An independent Scotland might decide, for example, it's not worth paying for nuclear submarines that need US permission to launch.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Keep going, I’ve almost got Nat Bingo

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You may laugh - it's the unionists that need to make the compelling case. I note that you cannot. It's the tired old case that the SNP voters disregard reality (increasing) and unionist voters continue to howl at the moon (decreasing)

Nor can Mad Max, and we've attracted some English nationalists into the thread which while I respect their right to an opinion often lack the self awareness to realise that their activity has the opposite effect that they desire.

It's not uncommon, for some, on this forum redirect the conversation from the question asked to the question they would prefer to be asked. This thread is a prime example.

Anyone got a compelling case for the union to twist back the 10-15% of "nationalists" that switched sides in the last decade?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Based upon Sephiroth's link, only £3.3bn of defence spending was attributed to Scotland. So even with no defence spending at all in an independent Scotland, that doesn't make that a significant dent in a £12.7bn deficit.
Government borrowing interest rates are connected to deficit levels.
Link

How's this for a misleading statement from the SNP.
The UK figure was so low, that it couldn't drop that far in %age point terms, especially when Scotland accounts for more than half of the UK deficit.

A large chunk of the need for austerity is a result of Scots one way or another. Whether it's that they account for half of the current(pre COVID-19) deficit or whether it was the excessive spending of Blair, Brown, and Darling(all Scottish).
Link

Any trade deals with the EU or anybody else, would no longer apply to an independent Scotland. Any deals are made with the UK as an entity, not as a specific list of countries. Access to any deals in place at the time, can't be handed over to Scotland. Just as any deal the EU makes with whoever, applies to whatever the current list of EU members is. Eg if Turkey joins the EU, then any deal applies to them as well. Eg If country X(not just the UK), leaves the EU, then any trade deal made with the EU, no longer applies to X.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

But that's not to say that Scotland can't be a successful, independent country. There's plenty of small countries in Europe that are successful and some like Slovenia and Slovakia which have split away from other ones and had to build their own institutions and currencies.

Scotland has a larger population than the Republic of Ireland which has been successful but it is spread over a far larger area which increases costs in traditional economic models but in a Covid world, might work to its advantage.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

After 60 years of poverty, it’s only really since the 90’s Ireland has had a decent economy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...lic_of_Ireland ( I know it Wiki but it will do for this point)


I said Of course Scotland can go it alone, but it could take a generation or two to enjoy spending levels they currently enjoy.

From a Digital economy angle Scotland has no international connectivity. Ireland has lots on new infrastructure and more coming.

Scotland can do it but from a standing start it will take time

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Part of that £25 billion is UK level taxes collected from Scotland, and returned to them. It is the £12bn or so that is the missing bit.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm sure a little of jfman's fantasy economics will sort that out;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Slovenia was never that poor relatively in the first place.
Link

Slovakia

Somehow I don't think the SNP or Labour would go with those polices.
The other thing that is highlighted is a favourable geographical location. Scotland is isolated in that sense. There is no near connection with mainland Europe, other than via England.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I don't want Scotland to leave the UK, but if I was Scottish I'd be sorely tempted.

Brexit and the last General Election, have made it increasingly likely at some point. The UK govt. doesn't represent Scotland, and is openly dismissive. Brussels for us, read London for Scotland.

People wanting to leave a Union (be it the UK or the EU) have the right to do so. Can't have different rules for each, can we? It's their sovereignty if nothing else ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

We need a bit of clarity on how that £12bn is being spent - is it central UK services like defence, is it infrastructure-building, is it tuition fees etc.

I'm not pretending that leaving the UK won't impact Scotland's finances and that it may have to raise taxation or cut spending. But for some Scots, a penny on income tax could be worth the feeling of having a government in power that they voted for and not a bunch of remote Brexity Tories whom they have little affinity with.

---------- Post added at 12:12 ---------- Previous post was at 11:59 ----------

Yes, agree with most of this but suspect the uptick would be shorter than two generations.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

House.

And no, the case is for separatists to make. Everyone in Scotland lives in the United Kingdom, and experiences what that’s like, every day. Separatists assert that an independent Scotland would be different and better. That’s the case to be made. Those who disagree, if they wish to engage with the debate, are in the position of evaluating sep assertions, questioning and rebutting them.

The claim that X participant in the debate has the opposite effect than they intended (where X is English, or a Scottish unionist, or some remote observer) is standard Nat waffle and not worth serious consideration.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well the people of Scotland keep electing SNP governments, who have a platform of Independence. The thread title question is going to keep coming back as long as they do that.

Things have significantly changed since last independence vote (i.e. Brexit), in which Scotland voted Remain. It's a just another example of their views being ignored.

The party of the UK are the most likely to cause it's break up. They've stabbed NI in the back as well.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The £12bn isn't UK wide spending. It is Scotland only spending. Things like Defence spending are taken out of the UK level taxes arising in Scotland.

They already have higher rates of income tax, and of course any increase only directly impact those that pay income tax in the first place.
Link
Link
Easy for that 44% to agree to income tax rises.
Even excluding capital spending(eg infrastructure) they have a large deficit.
Link



---------- Post added at 13:09 ---------- Previous post was at 13:07 ----------

Where do you draw the line? North Wales doesn't consider that Cardiff represents them. IIRC The Highlands don't consider that Edinburgh represents them. Etc, Etc. They have devolved powers, which is a lot more than England has.


It is unbelievably hypocritical of the Scots to complain that London doesn't represent them, when the EU represents them even less.:confused:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

When the EU referendum was announced, I thought it unlikely the country would vote for Brexit. It did.

It no longer seems nearly as unlikely that Scotland won't have another referendum and then vote to leave. If the SNP wins a majority next year, it would be hard to refuse a referendum. The UK Government will be tied up with Covid and Brexit, neither of which is going smoothly ("World-beating technology" "Easiest deal ever") so won't be fighting from a position of strength nor will it have much "bandwidth" for a good campaign.

The sooner that non-financial arguments are advanced and won for the Union, the less likely Scotland leaves.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Same here, my grandad was a proud Scot, born in Glasgow and grew up in Edinburgh.

During WWII he was engaged to a Scottish lass, but he met my nan (a Londoner) and married her 6 weeks later.

He would be 100% anti SNP.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yes, well Shirley Williams was a dodgy character, so don't blame him ! ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

:D:D:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Voting for the SNP is not necessarily a vote for independence, Mr K. The only real choice lies between the hated Conservatives, the discredited Labour Party, the naive Greens and the SNP. Not exactly a brilliant choice for them, is it?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It was a vote to fail to achieve it's goal,proven by the 2014 indy ref.
The SNP will never deliver independence, but other parties are available that might get the job done.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

A vote for the SNP may not always be a vote for independence but there has been consistent polling in the last few months favouring independence - the first time this has happened.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It's a trade-off.

Less money in the wallet for a number of years v not being governed by unelected bureaucrats like Baroness Dido Harding of Winscombe and Dominic Cummings.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You forgot about negotiating their own trade deals Andrew . . . seeing as you seem to be poking at the Brexit scenario ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I don't have to as I'm not making the case for independence. I believe Scotland is better off in both Unions but I don't live there so it's not my decision.

I also need to point out that Nomad King says the figure in question is not £25bn but £12bn and I believe others believe it's even lower.

I'm pointing out that people are allowed to make emotional decisions that might make them financially worse off as they feel the other benefits outweigh the costs. As a Brexiter, I'm surprised that you don't feel at least some empathy with this argument.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

What matters is when you get down to the nitty-gritty of asking the awkward questions, as to what happens afterwards. While there's no real discussion taking place at the time, people are unlikely to change their minds.


They keep going on about "if only we'd been allowed to keep the oil money", but the oil revenues only cover a fraction of their annual deficit. There would've been no, or at best little surplus to invest anywhere.

Eg Even in the "golden days" of high oil prices of 2011/12, there was no money left over to invest anywhere. That's with 100% of oil being attributed to Scotland.

Link

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I don't see trade deals as being a driver for Scottish independence.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The £25bn isn't the correct figure, whatever basis you use, as I pointed out that a chunk of the £25bn figure is UK level taxes originating in Scotland being returned to them. With independence that chunk would go directly to Scotland instead.

The Brexit comparison is bogus, as usual. There is a huge difference between possible financial downsides, which depend on possible agreements with the EU, and cast-iron downsides that are irrespective of any possible agreements. If you were to attempt to compare them, then you would have to add in all the similar possible financial downsides, eg borders and tariffs with the remainder of the UK. Additionally as I've also pointed out, Scotland would automatically lose access to whatever trade deals with the EU or wherever, that the UK might have at the time. As for automatic Scottish membership of the EU, with Brexit that will have gone out of the window. Scotland are no longer part of the EU, that happens to break away from the UK. They are currently not in the EU. It is no longer comparable to Catalonia, which is still part of the EU.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

No straw men in my arguments unless the two individuals I cited have resigned? I'm suggesting just some of the non-financial reasons that might appeal to voters in Scotland.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

We'll have to agree to disagree on those two individuals, who were chosen for solid reasons.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Just for a start, then, where's the money coming from to replace the Barnett formula, declining North Sea oil revenues, the cost of setting up all those new government departments, the contribution to NATO, the loss lf industry back to England? That's a lot of expense (and that isn't the half of it), and other than jfman's solution to tax the hell of of....someone... and tax breaks for business (so out of character for the SNP) I really do not see any light at the end of that tunnel for the Scots - in fact, the tunnel will get even darker.

Ordinary Scots will really pay the price for separation, and I dare say the English will get the blame for that as well!

I want to see Scotland remain in the UK because we are all stronger for it, but Scotland going it alone under an SNP government risks reducing them to third world status.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm not making the case for independence so fortunately I don't have to do the maths.

But if each Scot is even a grand or two poorer that's not third world standards by any stretch of the imagination! Good case situation it's level with Japan. https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I thought nobody voted to be poorer. Silly me..

:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If it's any consolation, i'm happy to agree with one of the above sentences. :D

---------- Post added at 10:08 ---------- Previous post was at 09:59 ----------

One of the issues I understand driving Scottish independence is that in the 2014 referendum, one of the benefits of being in the UK was it meant you were in the EU. A path to EU membership for an independent Scotland would not be instant. This is important to the country which voted 62% voting to remain.

Take that benefit away, and you've removed a key reason for some people to vote to remain in the UK. 2014 may have bene described as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, but with the UK leaving the EU, it's a bit of what insurers would call a force majeure - unforseeable circumstances - which can be positioned by devolutionists to legitimise another devolution vote.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Is anyone actually preventing Scotland from having (yet) another vote on independence?

The majority voted to remain in the EU a couple of years ago, I doubt much has changed since then . . . so come on, let's see them do it again . . or is it all political bluster ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

One of the most important things you need to understand if you’re going to grapple with the issues is the terminology. Devolution means something entirely different than independence or separation. Devolution is the authorising of the Scottish Parliament to exercise powers that remain held sovereign by the Westminster parliament. This is what was voted for in 1998 and which has been modified several times since.

What is at issue here is not devolution and the SNP and its supporters are not devolutionists. The vast majority of Scottish voters continue to support devolution as a concept. Independence is about creating a wholly sovereign Scottish nation state.

Support for separating Scotland from the U.K. is being driven by the febrile atmosphere around, first, Brexit, which is as yet unresolved, allowing the usual suspects to keep claiming they told us so (even though it being unresolved necessarily makes that untrue) and Covid, which has allowed Nicola Sturgeon to conduct a daily, live party political broadcast on national TV during which she has delivered essentially the same message as the Tories have for England, but in a way that makes her look caring and vulnerable in contrast to bumbling Boris, who is already widely disliked this side of the border.

There is no substance to the poll shift because the fundamentals haven’t changed since 2014, and I say that fully aware of the EU issue. The SNP has been allowed to get away with portraying the EU as a preferred partner over England despite cold hard reality. Size isn’t important, it’s what you do with it - and the single market of the U.K. is far more significant to Scotland than that of the EU. It doesn’t matter how many millions more people there are in the EU single market if they’re not buying your stuff, and you don’t make enough stuff they might want to buy anyway.

Scottish economic activity services its own public sector, the U.K. public sector, its own domestic commercial sector and the rest of the UK’s commercial sector. A significant chunk of that would be catastrophically damaged by wrenching it out of the U.K. - far, far worse than the worst doomsday scenarios postulated for the UK’s exit from the EU single market. None of these issues are being given any serious consideration at the moment, and nor would they unless an independence referendum were to be held. The SNP has the luxury of making its case without actually having to back it up, and hence we are where we are.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Thanks for your considered reply, Chris.
Sorry, I meant independence not devolution, more haste and less speed on my part.
I get the economic arguments but I wonder if the EU argument for Scotland is non-financial too. You can work anywhere in the EU, you can study anywhere in the EU, your ambitions aren't confined by the island you were born on, etc.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

This is an argument that sounds great in theory, but if you sat down with the average SNP voter in Dundee and challenged them to be specific about how and when they might actually use any of these benefits, you wouldn’t get a very long answer. The truth is, EU membership as far as SNP strategists are concerned is about differentiation - from England, broadly, but from the Tories, specifically. The SNP was anti-EU until the early 90s when Salmond converted it into a Euro-enthusiast party, right at the same time as serious euroscepticism was taking hold in the Tory party and in the national (Fleet Street) Press.

There was a small but significant Brexit vote within the broader body of independence-chasing SNP supporters in 2016; the truth is, Scottish Independence is founded on the very idea that decisions are best taken locally and the EU’s long march towards centralisation and loss of ability of member states to exercise sovereignty is not compatible with it. Many of the SNP’s oldest members understand this and still hold to the party’s previous, long-held commitment to withdraw an independent Scotland from the EU.

You only have to look at the hoo-hah around repatriation of powers to see the real game the SNP is playing here. Certain single market rule-making powers that have resided with the EU, in some cases for decades, will be repatriated to the U.K. at the end of this year. Westminster proposes retaining some of these as U.K. competencies, on the basis that there is still a single market in the U.K., but because the Scotland Act did not anticipate us leaving the EU it is drafted in such a way that those powers should, automatically, go to Holyrood. That Westminster is planning to hold on to them is therefore a “power grab” and “disrespecting Scotland”, even though SNP policy is for an independent Scotland to join the EU and hand those powers to Brussels anyway.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Old Boy please cease from misrepresenting my views. You, and many others, spoke strongly against the spectre of a Corbyn Government due the risk to capital flight following tax increases. Saying it lowers tax revenues overall.

I’ve proposed Scotland do the opposite, promoting inward investment and higher overall revenues as a result. Are you saying capital flight is a myth? You simply cannot have it both ways.

You are either lying to left wing voters, Scotland or my suspicion to both as it suits your needs and ideology.

Why would a company not relocate to Edinburgh with lower wages, lower corporation tax, and lower property costs in an independent Scotland?

As always your points are contradictory nonsense trying to get a rise out of others.

There are at least some forum members trying to make a considered case for the Union.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Seeing as the SNP, Labour, and the Lib Dems are all in favour of increases in corporation tax, then talking about the benefits of lower taxes is a bogus argument. Anyway we're not talking about a few million extra or even a few hundred million extra, we're talking about several billion. If somehow lower wages, corporation tax, and property costs were the complete solution, then why are parts of the UK still not very great economically?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

What the SNP (or any of the other parties quite frankly) would legislate for in the UK Parliament doesn’t necessarily equate to what they would do give the economic circumstances of an independent Scotland.

Your post is an entire red herring. You’re also ignoring the jobs that such companies would create - increased income tax, spending, VAT, and the full cycle of the economy that would be impacted.

Part of the UK aren’t great economically because they’re being failed by a London based Government that rules for the financial sector and the south east. I thought that’d be obvious?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

So where do the SNP say they are in favour of lower corporation taxes only for Scotland?
Link


But those areas still have lower wages, corporation tax, and property costs. What part of London and the South East were Northern Rock based in? Same goes for other building societies and banks.

More recently Oct 2019.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You're a fine one to talk about misrepresenting views! What I said was that The Sturgeon's left-wing SNP government would not sit easily with a tax reduction for business.

Of course I agree that lowering taxes for business and the rich encourages investment and I have never said otherwise.

I am beginning to think that you are forever disagreeing because you read something and you interpret it as meaning the opposite. With Scottish independence, I am merely saying that the figures simply do not add up, and given the political stance of the SNP, I cannot understand why they think they can make it work.

Yes, I am sure there are solutions, but like the Venezualan government, they would find it unpalatable to grasp them. Not that I am saying they compare with the Venezualan government, of course.

In any future independence campaign, the opponents of separation need to ram home the fact that there is no economic argument for Scottish independence that would be acceptable to the SNP. That's why they don't want to talk about it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Old Boy your seeming ignorance to Scottish politics knows no bounds. You continue to slur the SNP as 'left wing', you've dropped in a Venezuela reference just to cross another one off the bingo card.

It's unfortunately the fact you are so far to the right that you become apoplectic at the notion that the state more effectively carries out and funds some roles that private sector parasites drain as much profits as they can at unsustainable rates then come crawling back for corporate socialism.

Again I extent my invitation for you to come and share your ignorance with us next May.

---------- Post added at 11:07 ---------- Previous post was at 11:05 ----------

Again what the SNP would vote for in London doesn't represent the economics of an independent Scotland.

You can run an economy in the interests of London and the South East with outliers. You present it as a zero sum game - as always a simplistic and straightforward narrative that doesn't consider the scale of what you are taking about.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They were talking about taxation in an independent Scotland.:rolleyes:From my previous link and quote.
The "rest of the UK" bit, states that they ARE referring to Scotland only tax policies. Where is there ANY evidence that current official SNP policy is to reduce corporation tax? I can't find any, and you are not providing any evidence of your claims.

So did those Scots Blair, Brown, and Darling also disadvantage Scottish businesses? Any supposed "disadvantage" would also apply in the rest of London and the South East. The claim that inward investment is needed to solve the "problem", is admitting that the solution cannot come from existing businesses, and that new businesses are needed. That is not a sign that existing businesses are being hampered by London or anywhere else, except by Scotland itself.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Nicola Sturgeon's dream to re-join EU brilliantly dismantled by ex-SNP Cabinet Secretary

"If Scotland were to be allowed into the EU, they would have to slash their current deficit of more than eight percent to less than three percent, laying waste to the public sector in Scotland which would quite simply no longer be able to exist.

"From eight percent to less than three percent is a very long way indeed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-SNP-alex-neil

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That’s a commission recommendation - not an official policy. You’re also, falsely, assuming that the SNP would govern an independent Scotland. The Scottish Conservative Party and Labour Party would equally have the opportunity to make different cases for a new tax system.

The recommendation wouldn’t stack up if you are all right about the financial sustainability of Scotland anyway, so they’d quickly need an innovative approach. You can’t simultaneously say they need solutions then dismiss their right to explore them.

And yes, I do believe that New Labour governed for London and the South East every bit as much as the Conservatives do.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Scotland can't leave.

Nicola Sturgeon is currently running the UK and we'd be lost without her making the decisions....

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I wouldn't let her run a bath.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

She wouldn't be able to run a bath, withing 2 minutes of her incessant yapping the taps would turn themselves off :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Boris would never be able to work out how the taps worked. Then he'd keep changing his mind about hot or cold.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

So the Scots would vote for independence AND the Conservatives.:D
Where on earth have I said they wouldn't have a right to choose?:confused:
Scotland has a higher GDP per person, than most of England. Only marginally lower than the East of England.
The whole of London, the South East, and East of England do not solely comprise of the "City".
The combined UK-wide turnovers of Google and Amazon don't even come close to covering the gap. That is an indication of the size of the revenue gap. You only tax a portion of any GDP, so the extra GDP required is several times that. Eg if the deficit is 7% of GDP, then you need an increase in GDP well into double figures.
Still no sign of any evidence that the SNP have a policy where corporation tax might be reduced below that of the UK.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Sir Kier would be concerned about treating the hot and cold taps equally and would demand one of those dual taps in the name of diversity.

---------- Post added at 13:22 ---------- Previous post was at 13:20 ----------

He's not listening, mate, he just wants to argue. I'm done with this, personally.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If the Conservatives governed for London, we would still be in the EU.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

. . . and everywhere outside the confines of the M25 would be a desolate wasteland

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Latest GERS report out now.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/go...-gers-2019-20/

It finds Scotland’s notional deficit, including a geographic share of North Sea oil and gas revenues, has risen by 1.2 points to 8.6%.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I see GERS also decided that Scotland would pay £3.4bn in military spending. :D

Need to fabricate the figures somehow I guess.

---------- Post added at 13:55 ---------- Previous post was at 13:51 ----------

Once again you’re trying to attribute the impact on the entire economy to one or two companies. Not entirely sure that’s how it’d work. Nobody has said what the SNP policy for an independent Scotland would be because it’s not relevant to my argument.

Right wing people have warned against public spending because of capital flight through tax rises. The reverse of this is encouraging investment by lowering tax - something now suddenly doesn’t work for Scotland. Just be open about the fact you are skewing the facts to suit your ideology/agenda - just as Old Boy does.

I get that England fears an independent Scotland. I would too if I were English, however I’m not so can only look at things objectively from where I sit here in Scotland.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm English and I certainly don't fear an independent Scotland. I think they would be foolish to break from the Union but it is not my decision to make.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That's generally the attitude I'd expect if all that is claimed were true. England will be better off anyway (allegedly). I'd simply bid Scotland farewell and with them good luck if that were true.

However there's this underlying thing that seems to get the juices going among some British nationalists that it's something for them to massively fear. I'm keen to scratch the surface of it because if it were straightforward economics, and the English national interest, it'd be see you later.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

SNP humiliation as Sturgeon ABANDONS major independence project - report obliterates hopes

THE SNP has ditched plans to publish an "annual economic case for independence", with pro-union campaigners claiming the UK is "more valuable than ever" to Scotland.

The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) publication highlights how much the country raises in taxes compared to how much it spends on public services.

The report showed report showed Scotland’s national deficit was 8.6 percent of GDP in 2019/20, as public spending north of the border outstripped tax revenues by £15.1billion.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...economy-latest

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Most of the English I know couldn't give two hoots (;)) about Scottish independence. I'm glad I don't move in your circles, they seem a strange lot :p:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It's all that plotting and scheming it sends them a bit doolally tap;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Should read, are.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Unusually, I am in complete agreement with you. ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I can’t think of any other country on earth where viewing self-determination as a positive thing would be considered “strange”. It might not be for everyone for historic, ideological or cultural reasons but it’s actually quite normal.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Why did it take so long for her to recognise this? I'm glad she took the points I made on the lack of an economic argument to heart! :D

Jfman still has to get there yet, and I'm not hopeful.

---------- Post added at 20:10 ---------- Previous post was at 20:09 ----------

It is strange if it is a ruinous ambition.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yup. It’s almost as if Sturgeon would prefer the whole indymince thing to go away for a few more years isn’t it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

As with Brexit, models suggest that economic performance for Scotland would be worse outside the UK, but not ruinous. And just as with Brexit, some value other, non-economic factors highly...so don't mind taking a hit in their wallets.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I had to laugh and relate the following to this thread. Just my warped sense of humour.

Link

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1598483676

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Och, naw!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If I’m certain of anything it’s that, despite UK Government claims, Scotland wouldn’t have the third highest per capita military spending in the world behind the USA and Israel.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Can't spend what they haven't got.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

but . . isn't that exactly what all Governments do? :D


oh, and plenty of households too ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Not in our household thank you very much as everything gets budgeted for.;)