Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

A lot who can’t do anything for 12 months. Extension, 2nd referendum, soft Brexit all on the table with cross party support to a greater or lesser degree. No deal Brexit on 29th March is stone dead. No mechanism exists to force it.

Pierre

12-12-2018 21:12

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35975091)

1 is a victory for May. 12 months freedom to define Brexit on her terms.

?....4 months?

denphone

12-12-2018 21:14

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35975108)

[Admin Edit: Removed].

Unless the boil can be lanced the civil war over Europe in the Conservative party will inevitably tear the party apart.

Damien

12-12-2018 21:14

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35975111)

?....4 months?

Well a election, referendum or EEA all got more likely

Pierre

12-12-2018 21:15

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35975106)

Not really. 117 is a lot against her.

It is.

A 3rd of her party are against her. Which is why I said Less than a 100 is whTvshe really needs.

However, I think it’s enough for her.

But unless she resolved the back stop issue, it all means nothing. No other metrics have changed.

This deal will not get through parliament as is.

jfman

12-12-2018 21:17

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35975111)

?....4 months?

The 117 run the risk of no Brexit at all (and/or a Corbyn Government) if they don’t back her. If she wants 12 months they will back her extension.

---------- Post added at 21:17 ---------- Previous post was at 21:15 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35975115)

This deal will not get through parliament as is.

We need new arithmetic.

There is no Brexit PM riding in on a white charger to save the day.

Pierre

12-12-2018 21:20

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35975114)

Well a election, referendum or EEA all got more likely

No, not really.

First she has to try and resolve the backstop issue........sort that out and the deal has a chance.

If that doesn’t Happen a second referendum, forced because of parliamentry impotence is possible.

An election is still off the menu for some time.

Dave42

12-12-2018 21:24

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35975119)

No, not really.

First she has to try and resolve the backstop issue........sort that out and the deal has a chance.

If that doesn’t Happen a second referendum, forced because of parliamentry impotence is possible.

An election is still off the menu for some time.

if it a EEA deal there is no backstop as we be in CU so no need for a backstop or hard border

jfman

12-12-2018 21:26

Re: Brexit

Theresa May doesn’t have to solve anything now. Problems solve themselves for our Prime Minister.

Dissenters in the party need to ask themselves what they prefer. If the party do not toe the line she can extend, bring in emergency legislation, revoke.

Back my deal or bring me down. She’s truly magnificent at this.

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