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Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36078019)

Except we can’t see who the ‘leading scientists’ are, because the article is behind a paywall, and the extract doesn’t name them...

Update - found a link in another paper - it’s mostly the Great Barrington mob who were proved wrong last year, when they said there wouldn’t be a second wave...

Is the fact they were completely wrong last year too "obscure" for you?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/scrap-soci...082935924.html

I’m not aware that they said there would not be a second wave. Do you have a link for that, Hugh?

:D

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36078029)

I’m not aware that they said there would not be a second wave. Do you have a link for that, Hugh?

:D

https://www.thearticle.com/herd-immu...ethal-strategy

Quote:

In the summer, Gupta asserted that, if she was right that there was already widespread immunity in the population, Covid-19 was already on the way out and we would not see a second wave. Others who share such views include Carl Heneghan of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Karol Sikora, an oncologist at the University of Buckingham and a former cancer adviser to the World Health Organization. Sikora (a signatory of the Great Barrington Declaration) asserted in June that the virus might simply just “fade out”, despite “a lot of fuss and a lot of noise”, and that it was likely we’d be done with Covid-19 by August. In late September, faced with evidence that he was wrong, he argued that “this second wave is simply not as deadly.” In later September, as the more infectious new variant of the virus was just taking off, Heneghan argued it was too early to implement a lockdown; by 9 October he was still casting doubt on the reality of a second wave.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1619463539

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...ons-quarantine

Quote:

Stop panicking! Europe ISN'T experiencing 'second wave' says expert - Boris must keep calm

A LEADING doctor has urged caution rather than panic amid growing fears of a second wave of coronavirus.

Professor Karol Sikora spoke out after the UK reported its highest number of new COVID-19 infections in more than a month and partial lockdown returned to Greater Manchester and parts of West Yorkshire and East Lancashire.

Another of Sunetra Gupta’s predictions hasn’t aged well...

https://www.financialexpress.com/lif...rward/2124438/

Quote:

She’s of the view that many parts of India have clearly achieved herd immunity as cases of infections are falling naturally. The professor said that this tells us that seroprevalence studies cannot tell the exact proportion of the population that has been exposed, and when.

Talking about the studies in India that state 60-70 per cent antibodies in particular localities, she said that in those areas people were recently exposed and it has overshot the level required for herd immunity. She added that not only do antibodies decay but now it is also known that not everybody makes antibodies.

She said that herd immunity in India will happen in different phases because it is a very large country. “But it will happen for sure. I imagine, though I have not studied all the data carefully, that most part of Maharashtra must have developed herd immunity by now… But there must be other areas where immunity has not progressed that much.”

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36078007)

Why? I quoted the leading scientists and academics who made the argument that continued use of masks and requirements to social distancing would not be necessary. I was merely agreeing with them.

If you want to argue the toss, knock yourself out. I'm sure you'll find something obscure .

Are multiple sources using their own words unobscure enough for you?

;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36078029)

I’m not aware that they said there would not be a second wave. Do you have a link for that, Hugh?

:D

As usual it was a split opinion, as it has been all the way through this pandemic. You can find an opinion to fit your argument.

As I recall, a big second wave wasn’t predicted, well not that I read anyway. A big initial wave followed by several lesser waves is what I read, and that is the way is was looking until that new more communicative variant hit the South East and London, exasperated by the poor decision not to lockdown London and that ripple turned into a Tsunami.

But things are going well, I see no reason to deviate from the current road map.

But they had better not renege on their promises without overwhelming evidence and compelling reason

Or else what?

The perpetually wrong get outraged for a few more weeks?

I'm starting to think that some people are desperate to see Britain fail because they enjoy lockdown. That's the only coherent reason for being so consistently wrong regardless of the evidence. A broken clock is right twice a day by pure chance. Some of these "scientists" have had 15 months.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36078046)

Or else what?

What would be the reason for extending restrictions if there wasn’t an “overwhelming evidence and compelling reason” to?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36078051)

What would be the reason for extending restrictions if there wasn’t an “overwhelming evidence and compelling reason” to?

Why the need for “overwhelming” or “compelling”?

You’ve introduced two thresholds for evidence there to artificially and unnecessarily raise the bar. Let’s face it as long as ICU has been below capacity some have never considered the evidence for the restrictions to be overwhelming or compelling ignoring the time lag between cases and hospitalisations.

Get it right once we get it right for good. Get it wrong once and we are back to January. Instead of moving forward slowly we are moving backwards to come back to this point in 2 or 3 months. The economic impact of moving backwards alone is enough to justify moving forwards slowly if evidence far beneath “overwhelming” and “compelling” justifies it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36078046)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36078035)

https://www.thearticle.com/herd-immu...ethal-strategy

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1619463539

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...ons-quarantine

Another of Sunetra Gupta’s predictions hasn’t aged well...

https://www.financialexpress.com/lif...rward/2124438/

Are multiple sources using their own words unobscure enough for you?

;)

Thank you for taking the trouble to find this, Hugh.

Those quotes are explainable, though. Notice that Gupta claimed that IF there was already herd immunity in the population, the virus was on its way out.

She said that 'most part of Maharashtra must have developed herd immunity by now… But there must be other areas where immunity has not progressed that much.'

The urging of a doctor (not sure which one that was) not to panic but to be cautious was surely good advice, but of course we later found that a new strain was much more infectious. This caught many scientists off guard.

I do understand why people are worried about this horrible virus, but I don't think those people who are still urging us to wear masks and to social distance are taking proper account of the success of the vaccination programme. This virus is clearly not going away, but you cannot expect the population to endure these restrictions forever. That's just control freakery.

Ah the classic OB straw man.

Quote:

You're the one constantly wanting more lockdowns

On the contrary OB. My stance all along has been that the decision making behind the belated first lockdown - the same decision making in most of the major capitalist economies in the world reaching the same conclusion - still applies unless something changes in substance.

That still applies - the vaccine leaves us in a better position to ease restrictions. It doesn't put us on an immediate and absolute course to no restrictions on May 17. A laughable proposition.

Nobody anywhere claimed lockdowns kill off the virus. All they can achieve is to remove it from the community if willing to take the hard path. Two straw men in one post. Magnificent.

If Gupta was a credible scientist rather than a paid stooge of financial interests she might offer conclusions of scientific merit and not PR.

COVID-19: Every fine issued to coronavirus 'rule-breakers' should be reviewed, says committee

Every single fine issued by the police to people deemed to be breaking COVID-19 restrictions must be reviewed amid concerns they are "discriminatory and unfair", a committee of MPs and peers has said.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ittee-12287611

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36078069)

You are the one constantly wanting lockdowns.

Lockdowns do not kill off the virus, they merely delay transmission of it. Immunisation kills off the virus, not lockdowns.

---------- Post added at 07:42 ---------- Previous post was at 07:30 ----------

Thank you for taking the trouble to find this, Hugh.

Those quotes are explainable, though. Notice that Gupta claimed that IF there was already herd immunity in the population, the virus was on its way out.

She said that 'most part of Maharashtra must have developed herd immunity by now… But there must be other areas where immunity has not progressed that much.'

The urging of a doctor (not sure which one that was) not to panic but to be cautious was surely good advice, but of course we later found that a new strain was much more infectious. This caught many scientists off guard.

I do understand why people are worried about this horrible virus, but I don't think those people who are still urging us to wear masks and to social distance are taking proper account of the success of the vaccination programme. This virus is clearly not going away, but you cannot expect the population to endure these restrictions forever. That's just control freakery.

But Maharashtra currently has one of the highest incidences of COVID infections in India - how could this be so if they had reached "herd immunity" last year?

Carl Heneghan said on the 20th October (as quoted above) "no sign of a Second Wave" - this was over a month after BoJo said the UK is ""now seeing a second wave"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54212654

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36078083)

I suppose if you look hard enough you'll be able to find people who still think the earth is flat and the moon is made from cream cheese.

Look hard enough?

You're joking, twitter, facebook and youtube are only a click away :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36078095)

Look hard enough?

You're joking, twitter, facebook and youtube are only a click away :D

So is page 325 of this thread.

I am constantly amazed by how many people over here (especially in the South) are swayed by conspiracy theories and debunked claims.

Quote:

A Miami school has discouraged teachers from getting the Covid vaccine, saying any vaccinated employees will be barred from interacting with students.

Centner Academy leadership cited debunked claims of non-vaccinated people being "negatively impacted" by contact with vaccinated people.

Experts say there is no evidence for such theories. US health officials have said the jabs are safe and effective.

Some 141 million Americans have received the Covid-19 vaccine to date.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56905752

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36078006)

Ah "it's just a flu". Explains a lot.

Since they didnt say that it explains nothing. :sleep:

Its just [another] virus would be more like it.

The problem was we didnt have [any] immunity.
Now we do, and more [and more] have been vaccinated.

It may not be the flu, but there is no obvious reason to treat it any differently [than the flu] once the vast majority have our immunity (and likely annual vaccinations).