Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well you have been saying that reliable old tune for a few years now old boy.;)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Old Boy,

The reason why I think Amazon and Netflix won't be around is based on comments by the big media companies today, especially Time Warner. Warner are worried about Neflix's encroachment on "their" territory and eroding HBO's (a TW owned channel) share of the market.

The big media cos will have their own Netflix or Amazon service and withhold their content to the streaming services. Netflix and Amazon will have more of their own content, but that will not justify future growth and keep customers if you can't watch a Warner, Disney, Fox show/film on Netflix and Amazon.

With regards to broadcast channels, they have long been dying a slow death. The main American networks, in particular, are worried. Despite ITV's recent surge, I think it will struggle. Who wants to waste time watching adverts....? I cannot now remember when I last sat down and watched ITV in the evenings. Plus, the evidence from smart phone/tablet viewing by younger folks is that they do not want to waste this time when they can be using it much more "efficiently" on facebook....

While the BBC is still funded by taxes, it will be fine. But once the licence fee is reduced, got rid of, or altered in any way, it will kill off the BBC as we know it in its current form.

There will still be a need for networks, whether it will be terrestrial (although I believe the terrestrial tv network will be gone in 30 years time and the bandwidth used for mobile), broadband networks and mobile. I think satellite delivered tv will die in favour of internet/mobile delivered tv.

I firmly believe that TV will look the same in 30 years time, as it did 30 years ago, on the surface, that is.... But what is underneath that surface will be very different and whoever is in the middle, the middlemen, will be gone.

As an example, if you wanted to book a holiday 30 years ago, you used a travel agent. Who uses a travel agent today? Most people use the net. Taking the same example, when the net came around, lots of people used services like lastminute.com to book their holiday's. But who uses that now? If you want a flight you go direct to Ryan Air's, BA's website and book with the hotels directly creating your own holiday "package".

TV will be like this. A direct relationship between those that create the stuff and those that watch it, I believe.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Really good post Horizon mate, I particularly liked the bit below, lol..........


But, over the last week several million viewers still sat in front of their tellies each day and watched depressing crap like Eastenders, or whatever other depressing, bleak stuff has been on the box over Christmas. (Dickensian shows, Call The Midwife, some other rubbish set in darkly shot scenes with actors who mumble...etc)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I liked it too - it illustrates exactly why those who predict the end of broadcast TV, can't understand why they might be wrong. Clearly, they don't like much of what is being broadcast. But they are at a loss to explain why "several million" people still sit down, according to a schedule, to watch such "depressing crap".

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Some people take a while to catch on to better ways of doing things, Chris. You still have Internet refuseniks today, but they are a minority of the population.

---------- Post added at 18:54 ---------- Previous post was at 18:51 ----------

Yes, I think we're on the same page, Horizon.

Some are a few chapters behind but they will catch up eventually! :D

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

That's another rather big statement to make my dear chap.:nono::naughty::nono:

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, until someone can persuade me how existing broadcast channels can remain viable as audiences migrate away, I will continue to believe what I believe. At present it seems to me that those who think that nothing will change are engaging in wishful thinking rather than engaging in the reality. Sorry, Den, but there are no persuasive arguments that I have heard yet to support the status quo. If you have one, please let us know what they are.

If it's simply that you don't believe that viewing habits can ever change, well good luck with that. Five years ago, some of my work colleagues were amazed that we did our grocery shopping on the Internet. Now, they are converts. If that kind of change can come within five years, are you really so confident that everyone will use their TV in the same way in 20?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

See the Ofcom Communications Market Report links I posted earlier. Linear TV viewing numbers are stable and broadcast advertising revenue is growing.

Streaming is also growing, but it will reach saturation, and I suspect in the not too distant future. If you want to stream now, there isn't anything stopping you. My guess is it'll peak at about 10% of viewing share.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I don't disagree with the Ofcom report, but that only tells us what people are doing now. It does not project forward to forecast how viewers will be watching TV in decades to come.

I respect your view that streaming will soon reach saturation, but I do not understand your reasoning behind that. I don't think viewers will want to waste their time on broadcast linear TV as streaming services mature and the average young person works out for themselves that there is a much more efficient means of watching what they want to see. Then those young people get older, and the viewing habits of the nation start to change.

The recent ITV experience in which advertising revenue reduced in the recession shows just how vulnerable the commercial TV stations are to relatively small changes in advertising income, and any significant shifts towards streaming services by the viewing public will reduce income from advertising.

I'm officially part of the older generation now, and my viewing habits have changed completely, just over the last year. Previously, the vast majority of my viewing was from TIVO recordings, with a small proportion from DVD, and very occasionally, live broadcast TV (BBC).

Now, it is totally different. Last night, for example, we watched:

The Frankenstein Chronicles (Now TV via Roku)
The Last Panthers (Now TV via Roku)
Bloodline (Netflix via Smart TV)
BBC News (TIVO recording from earlier in the evening)
Mad Men (Now TV via Roku)

Not all evenings have the same pattern of viewing; sometimes we just watch from our TIVO recordings, but nevertheless, there has been a sea change in our house in the way we view and the quality of that viewing has improved no end. I really cannot believe that the UK audience will stick to the habits of old forever.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

There might have been a sea change in your household old boy but remember there are many and l mean many who don't think like you do and never will.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Friends in my circle are starting to come round to my way of doing things and are now asking me lots of questions about streaming and the best equipment to do it. My youngest daughter now has a Roku to pick up Amazon Prime and she is really pleased with it.

The times, they are a changin'. There were those who said the telephone was an intrusion into the home and wouldn't catch on. Now look at us!

I accept completely that many people are not into all this at the moment, but given time, things will change even beyond what I am saying will happen. Did you have a mobile phone 15 years ago, Den? Bet you can't do without it now!!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Q-What has a mobile phone got in common with streaming

A- Nothing

:)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I was referring to changes in technology, Den!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well that's wrong technically as you can stream iplayer, netflix, nowtv etc on a mobile phone these days, so technically mobile phones and streaming have quite a lot in common nowadays.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I do think that many people don't appreciate how advances in technology subtly change our habits and lives over time.