Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

:tu:

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No it wasn't 37% of voters. It was 37% of eligible voters. I'm amazed you cannot see the difference.

I know the difference being one who has only voted 3 times in the 47yrs I've been eligible. Once in the 70's to come out and again in the referendum to come out and finally to elect a Government that will ensure we come out. Once that is completed I see no reason to vote again.

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It’s semantics. We both know we are talking about the same thing - the status of those who didn’t vote.

This is exactly the kind of discussion I called irrelevant in my last post - Cameron and Clegg made the rules. Few complained until after the result.

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We need to focus on 2020 and in getting the best deal for the UK.

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Everyone's entitled to their own opinion on this matter. I want as close a relationship to the EU as possible as that's in all our best interests. How that's measured in degree of ground won or conceded to the EU is hard to measure.

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If the Lib Dems still want to rejoin then I welcome them sticking it in their manifesto for 2024.

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France has a slightly higher GDP Per Capita than the U.K....

UK - 43688.40

France - 44317.30

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Just wait until we nationalise all foreign industries :D :D

;)

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Don't think the EU has issues with us being a sovereign nation (which we were before, it's not binary, as the Covid border closures showed) as long as we understand the consequences.
UK productivity is set to worsen with many people doing unproductive jobs in customs, etc. We already lag our peers in this measure.

---------- Post added at 14:49 ---------- Previous post was at 14:48 ----------

Have you ever seen Corbyn and Cummings in the same room? :D

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maybe if we stopped importing so much shite, we wouldn't need as many 'unproductive jobs in customs' :D

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We were discussing the EU's view not mine. ;)

---------- Post added at 16:41 ---------- Previous post was at 16:40 ----------

It's just exports for now that will need the paperwork. ;)

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You missed the word "Independent" from Sovereign Nation. Which we were NOT before, being in a corrupt EU organisation.

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You appear to be moving the goalposts - your assertion was about productivity...

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I also am sick and tired of the whole thing. The most depressing thing is that some here even now cannot accept basic facts and that is the essence of this whole thing. Even now, when they have nothing to lose, they still denying objective reality. Sort of sums the whole debacle up ..

BTW, the rules had nothing to do with Clegg, the European Union Referendum Act was passed in Dec 2015 after the Tories won the election in May.

Enough now ..

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You just want the whole thing put off indefinitely, playing the long game, hoping that Brexit will be overturned.

It's not going to happen, so you may as well swallow it.

You fail completely to understand the benefits that will come with Brexit. That's OK, you're a remainer, so I don't expect you to have the imagination to see what can be done with our newly won freedom. Remainers really do seem to be scared of change, but change is what we need and that in the end will be best for our economy.

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At last! Welcome on board, Andrew! :)

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So while trade is in a delicate state due to Coronavirus, adding extra barriers to trade is a good idea?

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I'm afraid I find controversy in your first sentence as you cite no evidence to support the controversial assertion that the "Customs Union is more about theory than vast two way traffic."

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Interesting, thanks.

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We still imported £36.2 billion and exported nearly $36.9 billion's worth in May (and about the same in April), which while being around 30% less than the same months last year, still worth a lot more than "bugger all".

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Excellent news, if we are exporting more than we import, then we're winning . . . right? ;)

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I would be happy with that 'bugger all' in my bank account...

The ONS figures are interesting in that machinery, transport equipment and fuels were the biggest drops as I guess we stopped moving around.

The fragility of supply chains was highlighted during the recent virus outbreak. Remember the egg shortage? That wasn't because chickens suddenly stopped laying eggs, it was because there are three egg box manufacturers in Europe and the one in Denmark closed. This created a Europe wide shortage with eggs sitting in warehouses with no way to ship them.

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You've just made the case for the need to find new markets. Thank you, that's a positive, then!

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Slight objection from me. :D

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Absolute bullshit in your first sentence there Old Boy.

I’ve repeated time and again that the extension leaves us better placed to walk away on 31 December 2021 without a deal. That stands to reason, more time allows more planning, more background negotiations with other countries.

For someone willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of lives for the economy it’s telling that you won’t sacrifice your ideology to the extent of a minor 12 month extension.

Tell me what seismic event happens in that 12 months to undo Brexit? The one I’m supposedly waiting on.

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Well, I am plased to hear that, jfman, but you know as well as I do that further extensions will just mean further obfuscation and unhelpful verbiage from the EU. It seems, from previous experiences, that the EU likes to take everything down to the wire, with deals made at the 11th hour. That is their method of obtaining maximum concessions from the other side.

We don't need any 'seismic' events to make a success of Brexit. Yes, it would be great if we could come up with a trade deal with the EU, but that is not the be-all and end-all.

Even the CBI had to acknowledge in their look at how business would cope with Brexit:

The UK is the seventh best place in the world to do business. It has a rapidly growing hub for creative industries and technology, with universities that consistently rank among the top in the world. It is the world leader in many financial services, and a setter of global standards in a range of professional and business services. All the UK’s interactions on the international stage should be an opportunity to showcase these strengths.

And don't bring coronavirus into this argument. That is nature, and quite a different situation.

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Don’t bring the single biggest economic shock since the 1929 recession into a discussion on trade. My sides. :D

The extension isn’t about the EU. It’s about Britain.

Presumably being the 7th best placed in the world to do business is based on current trading arrangements - by that flawed logic what’s the rush to leave them? What systems are in place to ensure we are more likely to go up to sixth than downwards? Hope, optimism and bluster do not make for a strengthening economy. It has to be built on something that isn’t sand.

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I think if we genuinely want to optimise our chances of a good deal with the EU, we need to get an extension to December 2021. This is about getting the best deal for the country. It doesn't mean not leaving.
My fear is Boris Johnson can't be bothered to put in the leg work that this would entail and has instead chosen to bury the Brexit disruption and layoffs in the Coronavirus recession and magic money forest.

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How does Brexit improve the robustness of supply chains?

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The EU stated its red lines many years ago, so no one should be surprised by the reaction if they request something a la carte. It was called Project Fear at the time but it's now Project Reality.
The extra year's payments will fund themselves in terms of higher GDP, higher tax revenue and lower social security costs than if we get a poor deal through lack of time.

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I have had enough of your trolling. You are the perfect example why 99% of CF members stay away from this toxic place.

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No, it won't Andrew. It will just prolong the filibustering. We need to bring this to an end, and the sooner we do it, the quicker we will know where we stand.

Remember the bottom line - the EU wants a no-tariff deal. So do we. Where's the real problem here?

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Er - we create new ones.

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That Britain wants the benefits of EU membership without playing by the rules.

Did EU membership prohibit this or are you simply skewing reality to match your own ideology?

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No, we want a tariff-free deal without being tied to the EU. What's wrong with that?

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It’s a great idea from our perspective. The benefits of EU membership without the costs.

However how we square that with lowering standards, chlorinated chicken and the island of Ireland is the hard bit. The EU doesn’t want a gaping hole in the Single Market.

Let’s say Ireland started giving citizenship to other EU citizens who wanted to live and work in the UK, bypassing our immigration controls. Would you be happy?

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Where did I say that it did? Once again, you are introducing arguments, apparently attributing them to me, and calling me out over them.

I accept completely that supply chains will be impacted if we don't get a deal. We managed before the EU and we'll manage again.

You totally miss some important positives about leaving the EU. One of them is that to avoid any delays in that supply chain, if that becomes a problem, we will start to make more parts in this country, creating more employment for our citizens.

There will be positives as well as negatives, but we will overcome the negatives and create new markets, free from EU restrictions, laws and protectionism.

Given the proximity of our leaving date, we should recognise that this negative outlook needs to give way to the optimism of a new beginning. We are leaving, and we need to enter this new big opportunity that presents itself with an open, positive mind.

All you guys seem to see are monsters lurking in every corner. Where's your entrepreneurial spirit? Oh, sorry, it appears you don't have one...

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

So leaving doesn’t improve the robustness of supply chains, thanks.

It’s the kind of thing businesses need more than a few months to prepare for.

Hope and optimism, that’s the answer.

Entrepreneurial spirit? What’s that got to do with a 12 month extension? That’s just your usual patronising, evidence lacking, bullshit.

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What costs, jfman? A tariff-free trade deal comes with mutual benefits. The 'costs' you talk about is the extortionate EU membership subscription, which gives us the dubious 'benefit' of the EU legislative system that we don't want.

We can get tariff-free trade deals elsewhere without a membership fee. How is the EU any different?

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Except it is not the benefit of EU membership without cost. Funny how remainers keep going on about that but...

A free trade deal would not include any development (or any other) grants or confer any UK citizen or EU citizen any exclusive rights. so no, nowhere near EU membership without the costs.

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I think businesses have had ample time to think this through, don't you?
I'm afraid that you have shown in a wide range of subjects that optimism is a characteristic that you don't possess. The glass half empty type.

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“The benefits“ of trade does not preclude there being other benefits. I didn’t say “all benefits”.

---------- Post added at 17:46 ---------- Previous post was at 17:42 ----------

2016: Easiest trade deal going.
2017: May’s deal
2019: Boris deal shifts effective leaving date to end of 2020
2020: Biggest economic shock since Great Recession.

No, it’s not obvious to me that businesses have had “ample time”. We haven’t held a coherent policy position for 18 months.

I’m afraid your bullshit about optimism, or lack thereof, has no impact on whether the UK makes a success of this or not.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=1947

How is that Chinese trade deal looking?

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No but what you said was "That Britain wants the benefits of EU membership without playing by the rules."

Membership would infer all benefits.

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Infer all you please, that's not my intent and I don't think anyone else who reads the post will think I had freedom of movement as a 'benefit' that Britain wants.

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So now "benefits of EU membership" can be Cherry Picked?

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That's what we were told by Vote Leave if I remember rightly.

But let's not get stuck in the past, we need to get the best possible deal as the country's already encountering high levels of unemployment and we can't afford to get it wrong.

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Your pedantry to sidetrack the discussion based on single sentences knows no bounds.

Although I agree yes, the UK are seeking to cherry pick.

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What a crass position you are taking, jfman! Any business worth its salt would have planned to exit the EU with a deal and to exit without a deal. A pretty binary choice, and they have known this from the get-go. The third option, now dismissed, was to stay in the EU, which would have meant no change.

The Chinese? Well, that presents a really great opportunity if they keep within international rule of law, but in the absence of that, have you taken a look at a globe recently? Still plenty of opportunities out there.

But you are not an entrepreneurial type of person, so you just don't see them.

---------- Post added at 20:00 ---------- Previous post was at 19:58 ----------

Maybe so, but that iswhat the EU wants. You don't get it, do you?

---------- Post added at 20:00 ---------- Previous post was at 20:00 ----------

:D

---------- Post added at 20:02 ---------- Previous post was at 20:00 ----------

Well, let's start by not being so negative about leaving the EU, then.

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No, we're not. We just want a no-tariff trade deal with no strings. Pray, tell me what is wrong with that, and don't forget to look at trade deals everywhere else around the world.

The EU is not the centre of the universe, jfman. I hope I am not the first to break it to you.

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Why? Government policy for over two years was to leave with a deal. As the forum arch-capitalist willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of lives for a couple of percentage points on GDP, why would companies waste money planning for an eventuality that wasn't Government policy?

At no point have I denied there are opportunities - I've been clear though that the situation is challenging, a challenge you I don't think you underestimate, but simply I think you ignore for ideological reasons.

No China trade deal, no EU trade deal, if Trump gets beat in November how does a US trade deal go with Biden?

Are you dictating to others on the forum they aren't entitled to be sceptical? It's embarrassing Old Boy, although unsurprising given the amount there is to be sceptical of about your blue-sky plans where hope is all we need to succeed

At no point have I ever claimed the EU is the centre of the universe. I'm making one simple point here, which you are struggling with apparently so rehashing old debates that expose your own naivety (China trade deal for example).

12 extra months leaves us better prepared to negotiate trade deals ready to go on day 1 at the end of the transition. None of your hope, or optimism, changes that fact.

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I received this from the Government today regarding the changes that will need to be made when the transitional period ends on 31/12/20:

https://www.gov.uk/transition

The idea is that you go through it and tick the different activities that your business/life is involved in. Then, at the end, you can request email updates about what is changing and what will need to be done.

It's a very good idea, but the claim that everything would be easy and run smoothly for businesses from 1/1/21 was clearly a lie.

I have a friend who is originally from Ireland that supported Brexit, ironically, the other day he posted to complain about having to apply to stay in Britain and that him and his family feel now feel insecure. The daft thing is that he won't need to worry as Irish people can come to live here regardless of the EU position.

Another friend now lives in Spain and wanted Brexit too. She posted today that she is worried about what will happen to her in January!

I'm pretty 50/50 with Brexit, and thought that there were good & bad outcomes from choosing to stay in the EU or from leaving. However, it's becoming clear that some of my friends didn't properly think through how leaving would affect them and that leaving isn't going to be as easy as was claimed by Johnson et al.

Of course, it's all going to be made much worse with the forthcoming recession arising from coronavirus that will be the worst that any of us has ever seen in our lifetime.

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I would be keen to see services in the deal as that's a key strength of this country. Too much attention is paid to fishing which accounts for minimal GDP and half the UK shipping fleet has been sold to overseas owners anyway.

I see having a level playing field as working strongly in the UK's favour. We're a rich country with a high minimum wage and until recently, didn't over-interfere in industry. Such rules would actually work in favour by keeping out subsidised, unfair competition from Europe.

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Taking Back Control

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...n-tells-huawei

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I'm only opining as to how geopolitics severely limits our control, especially as we deal with the genuinely big economic players - China, the USA and the EU.

We could find ourselves in a considerably bad position should the USA shift on China, with it's economic leverage I'm sure the Chinese would be more forgiving of a new President being more pragmatic. Would it feel the same about the UK? Or would it feel the whole Huawei, and Hong Kong, situation to be a slur on their character? Who knows.

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Germany and France have ar retaining Huwaei tech. So why has the UK acted differently? From what I've read, the UK explained to China that its actions were tactical to keep the US on board for trade talks but could be amended if Trump was not re-elected, as seems likely.

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Whatever the reason. It is ultimately the right decision.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Good point. Huawei is a hard situation to navigate but the Hong Kong situation has already meant that Chinese relations are far worse than back in David Cameron's day.

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Any proof? Or is this another “following the science”?

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Having worked in Telecoms for 26 years, I know all about Huawei from when they first Appeared on the scene With cheap facsimiles of Cisco kit they had ripped off to where they are now.

Security concerns about Huawei is nothing new, and precedes Trump. The Obama administration banned their use.

https://www.telecomramblings.com/201...s-us-problems/

And I remember discussing them with the CPNI around 2008, they had serious concerns
back then.

The risks to U.K. infrastructure were highlighted many years ago

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/...ure-Report.pdf


So do one.

:2up:

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“Working in telecoms” covers a wide range of roles, not all of which require any knowledge of Huawei.

You’re first article is speculative.

Huawei has been under fire in the USA in regards to possible security risks that might derive from its relationships with the Chinese military.

Your second is from 2013 and the concerns obviously not significant enough to stop our mobile networks investing in it in their infrastructure.

“Do one”, for someone who has been in telecoms for 26 years you debate like a child.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Listen, I don’t know what your profession is, if indeed you have one, but I am an incorporated Engineer that has worked in the transmission and fibre engineering sector for a long time. If I was lying the mods on here Could easily ascertain my identity and do a quick LinkedIn search and call me out, but they won’t because I’m not

I don’t have to certify my credentials to you.

It’s not, Hibernia Atlantic announced to the world they were going to build a new a trans-Atlantic cable that would be partially funded By Huawei and using Huawei equipment.

They were refused permission to build that system by the US government, and instead had to find alternative funding and use US supplier TESubcom, it put the project back years.

The risks were highlighted and continued to be closely monitored, hence the course of action taken.

Because I am clearly debating with one, or someone with the mental capacity of one.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...dband-kit.html

Not Huawei but another Chinese vendor, like Huawei, ZTE etc. They are ultimately Chinese state owned, there are no private companies in China.

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An “engineer” sounds more like manual labour than stakeholder relationship to me. That said I’m sure, behind your keyboard, you will prove me wrong as ever.

I don’t need the mods on here to prove your Conservative credentials, your post history is sufficient.

You’ve linked to a company other than Huawei. Which is fantastic because it makes you look to be clutching at straws.

This is a trade war. Your low level knowledge of the politics of the telecoms sector, being likely on the manual labour side, is irrelevant.

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Engineer is not manual labour, it is a skilled technical position in Telecomms.

Before retiring, I worked at a number of Universities, and used to attend RUGIT (Russell Group IT Directors Group) meetings, and we often had "off agenda" briefings from representatives from the National Cyber Security Centre (which is part of GCHQ) - there were often warnings about how Chinese students were actively copying/taking back to China proprietary research findings, and how we should be mitigating this (difficult in Universities, who believe knowledge should be shared), and how they had concerns about any Chinese manufacturers tech being embedded in our networks (pro’s were it was cheaper, con’s were it was often built with stolen copyrighted technologies, and concerns about backdoor security potential breaches).

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I have to prove nothing, that very statement proves you have no idea whatsoever what you are talking about in this field.

I would quit now if I were you on this particular matter should you look more foolish.

?????? A bizarre and confusing statement. I was Talking about my credentials in the telecoms industry, that you questioned, nothing else. My profession has nothing to do with any political thinking I may have.

wrong again, I was just picking up on a very recent story about A Chinese state owned Telco company....as they’re all state owned.....That has been caught with security issues. Huawei, ZTE etc are of the same ilk.

Huawei’s history in counterfeiting Cisco kit and security issues are well documented.

https://news.hitb.org/content/counte...-cisco-exploit

https://www.e-ir.info/2013/03/13/hua...onal-security/

The difference here is I have a “high” knowledge of the telecoms sector and you have “no” knowledge of the sector, you look foolish ( I would say stupid but that would be an insult), If you want to continue looking foolish, I look forward to your reply.

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You have no right to know me, nor my occupation, however if you claim to use your “expertise” in commenting on a sector it may be helpful if you offered an evidence base. Which in your original post you did not.

If/when Biden wins I’ll be genuinely intrigued to read your climb down.

---------- Post added at 20:45 ---------- Previous post was at 20:40 ----------

Such extraordinary, although not unexpected, arrogance.

---------- Post added at 20:51 ---------- Previous post was at 20:45 ----------

Grateful if Pierre could present such credentials, although equally indifferent if he/she could not.

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Chinese telecoms have different kinds of ownership. If Three, for example, was state-owned, I doubt we'd allow it to operate a UK mobile network. But I think we're wondering off topic so I won't post further on this.

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I’m not putting CV up.

But I have worked for a major telecoms company for over 25 years in Managerial and consultancy positions. I am an Incorporated Engineer, registered with the engineering Council UK and a member of the IET, and yes in regards to layer 0, layer 1 telecoms I am considered an expert.

On the contrary, I believe Chinese companies a security risk, the Obama administration banned them, I don’t see why Biden would suddenly embrace them.

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Are you evidencing these claims or asking the forum to take them at face value.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

What “claims?” I have Provided evidence, the fact you are out of your depth And trying to argue on a subject you know nothing about is painful to behold.

But let it continue, if you find self flagellation enjoyable.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

You have provided a link to a claim. Unless you have further evidence to post then I’ll consider your rhetoric to be irrelevant. As ever you offer no insight so it may be worth offering an opinion first before dismissing everyone else...

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I’ve provided more than enough evidence on this particular issue.

So in light of all the evidence you wish to ignore, I’ll dismiss you again, on this matter, you Know nothing, you’re coming across as an idiot.

If you carry on, you’ll only be confirming the proposition.

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You are a parody of your former self, Pierre. As the Nostradamus of this situation can you advise, as at when you type from “I know something you don’t know headquarters“, if the steer is to avoid UK stocks or buy?

If you can’t answer the easy ones I’ve no real optimism for the challenging ones.

Name your company too. For transparency to prove you are telling the truth you stand by and not just spewing rhetoric in favour of one political party. I suspect you will not...

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It is blindingly obvious from Pierre’s many highly technical contributions to this forum over a great many years that he has the expertise he says he does. I think you need to back off a bit ... you’ve argued yourself into a corner here and if you persist in trying to discount his informed views on this issue by making daft claims about his supposed lack of expertise you’re just going to make yourself look silly.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I’ve seen nothing to indicate he has any knowledge of the involvement of Huawei, or anyone else, and the implications for national security above that in the public domain.

My reading is that he is opining above his station. However this will of course be difficult to evidence as it’s “an opinion”.

I remind the forum that when I challenged him on this fact I was told to “do one”. Behaviour I’d personally consider below reasonable etiquette. Unless of course the moderating team seek to create a two tier forum?

It’d be helpful also if Pierre flagged “professional insight” from speculation as well.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Remember a few posts ago when Pierre said he would call you stupid but that would be an insult?

He was correct, it would have been an insult to stupid people.

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I'm not sure how much this will impact us if we're not Amazon merchants or buy from Amazon, but I'm sharing this here.

https://tamebay.com/2020/07/amazon-f...ds-for-uk.html

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At least we're well out of this kind of thing.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-fund-12031925

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He knows that, Hugh, he's just being insulting and argumentative.

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”well out of" leaders trying to help each other’s countries, but at the same time looking out for their own countries/economies?

I thought we wanted countries to be able to make their own decisions, rather than being over-ruled by the EU?

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We're still waiting to see your 'economist' credentials, jfman. Just sayin'...

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

l suspect at the end of the day none of us have any economic credentials as such so its just one persons opinion against another persons opinion.

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https://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=506546

More woe for Huawei

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

if you say that fast, it even sounds Chinese :D

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

We’ll see how it resolves itself. If it resolves itself.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

UK Government runs out of time to introduce a replacement to "CE" labelling. Maybe the Government just needs to believe more and the replacement will magically appear ?

https://www.ft.com/content/16a10238-...9-a48c0b00c96b

---------- Post added at 22:04 ---------- Previous post was at 21:59 ----------

How much has the UK spent? I suspect the Magic Money Forest has paid out more than €900 per person in the UK. Ironically, BoJo has got his wish to be compared to Churchill - he has indebted the country to levels last seen when Churchill was PM.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Here is your cut out and keep guide to importing and exporting from the EU - https://assets.publishing.service.go..._1320_edit.pdf

Needing Carnets and having to declare goods with values >£1500 are going to be a pain in my backside going forward. We're currently trying to find out what the story is for 'dual use' products as some of the products my company sells do fall in to that category and, up until now, it was no issues shipping these...

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

In the long term, this weakens the UK's competitiveness and will encourage producers to locate within the FTA.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Unless you want to set up a customs agent business, then kerching!

I am hating this site already - https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/sections. Last week I shipped a piece of machinery with a chiller and scales. The main part attracts 2.4% duty, the chiller 2.2% and the scales 0%. I haven;t got a clue so off the our trade compliance team I go.... (we're getting in practice in preparation for next year)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Not looking good for a July deal according to today's news. But the UK government's approach to date has been to climb down at the last minute (Anyone remember the no borders in the Irish sea?) so I think the news we're reading now based on an anonymous Government briefing to the Telegraph is just a bit of summer spin. And I've read elsewhere that nothing much will happen on the EU front until the Autumn anyway as the countries focus on recovery from CV-19.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...rtan-ntp-feeds