Cable Forum - UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

The measuring of productivity by using GDP has no connection with working hours. Are we really meant to believe that Italy is around as productive as Germany? Bulgaria is half of the EU average with the same EU working rules. Based upon an 100 average for the EU27, the figures for 2019 range from Bulgaria 49.1 to Germany 103.7, Italy 104.9, right up to Ireland with 197.

How does that work?

You have a point there. The OECD 2019 report of France bears that out.

https://www.oecd.org/france/oecd-pro...hts-france.pdf

Quote:

Highlights
 Labour productivity within French market service industries has stagnated over the entire 2002-15 period; in manufacturing industries, productivity has grown until 2011 but has stalled since.

 Productivity dispersion has increased more than wage dispersion over the period, which may be linked to the effect of labour market institutions.

 The productivity-wage premium is weaker than in other countries, especially at the top, suggesting a partial decoupling of wages and productivity.

 Labour allocation has increasingly contributed to aggregate productivity in manufacturing, while the contribution in services is quasi-nil, although increasing.

Oddly (to me) the OECD productivity comparison did not include the UK but did include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland.

---------- Post added at 15:06 ---------- Previous post was at 15:01 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36061265)

I believe Seph is familiar with Vote Leave's manifesto. ;)

The over-riding message in the Vote Leave manifesto was to take back control. I hope that's what will happen.

Hugh	07-12-2020 15:21

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

As long as "taking back control" includes "taking responsibility"...

1andrew1

07-12-2020 16:15

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Boris Johnson has backed down and offered to drop the clauses in the Brexit Bill that would break international law, in a bid to break the deadlock in the talks.
The prime minister made the major concession after the EU signalled the final deadline for a deal is Wednesday – despite insisting the UK would “prosper” without an agreement.
In a statement, the government said it would only take out the clauses if the “solutions being considered” as the talks drag on in Brussel reach an agreement.
Nevertheless, the move will be seen as significant climbdown, after ministers insisted they were necessary as ‘a safety net” – regardless of whether a deal was agreed or not.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...rtan-ntp-feeds

jonbxx

07-12-2020 16:45

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36061272)

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...rtan-ntp-feeds

Mmm, I fear that we may have made a blunder in even openly and knowingly considering breaking the Withdrawal Agreement.

Despite rolling back, some rock solid governance clauses are going to be needed here I think

Mr K	07-12-2020 16:53

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

We've promised not to break the law... That's big of us !

1andrew1

07-12-2020 17:50

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36061279)

Agreed, I'm not sure the implications were well thought through.

---------- Post added at 17:50 ---------- Previous post was at 17:08 ----------

Useful backgrounder on why the EU does not want a bad deal with the UK.

Quote:

For the EU, a bad Brexit deal would involve granting the British unfettered market access, while leaving open the possibility that businesses based in the UK could undercut their European competitors by operating under laxer regulations. That is why the EU is so insistent on a “level-playing field” on regulations, as a condition for a trade deal.

The British argue that Canada was not held to similar standards as a condition for its deal with the EU. But Canada did not get completely tariff and quota-free access to the European single market. And the UK is right on the EU’s doorstep, and so potentially poses a much bigger competitive challenge.

European governments know that if they get this wrong, they could sustain long-term economic and political damage at home. The fear of stoking domestic Euroscepticism also lies behind France’s hardline position on fishing in the Brexit negotiations. The last thing that President Emmanuel Macron needs, ahead of a presidential election in 2022, is to devastate fishing communities in a region that is already trending towards the far-right.

https://www.ft.com/content/5a84ce50-...b-2df08e1f8497

TheDaddy

07-12-2020 18:34

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36061281)

We've promised not to break the law... That's big of us !

Think it's more of an aspiration than a promise

Sephiroth

07-12-2020 18:38

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

In response to Andrew:

I think we know all that - indeed it's all displayed right now in Brussels and last week in London.

What that all amounts to is that the EU wants us to remain under their effective control in terms of the economy. You, Andrew, should not be wanting that. Do you?.

Chris

07-12-2020 19:07

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

As of right now, the three sticking points are still 'level playing field', dispute resolution and fishing. All of them have implications for UK sovereignty, which is the whole point of the Brexit project - something the EU somehow still doesn't seem to understand, given that even now there is still no immediate prospect of a breakthrough.

Mr K	07-12-2020 19:19

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36061293)

Maybe they do understand, its we that have misunderstood. They're happy to let us go rather than give us the benefits of membership without membership. It's a crazy thing to ask for and they'd be mad to grant it.

No deal clearly isn't an option we've genuinely planned for. Hence Boris rushing to Brussels cap in hand.... Who is chasing who? We've miscalculated.

Damien

07-12-2020 19:20

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

If the Government really wants a deal then the level playing field is the only dealbreaker I can see there.

Fishing is a case of trading away more allocation for better access, i.e for the city. Fishing is more important to the French and access to the services market is more important for the UK. There is a basis for a deal there. Setting a time limit more than a year might also be a compromise especially if it punts the issue past the French Presidental Elections - the French have domestic politics to consider as well after all.

I just can't see fishing blowing up the entire deal.

jonbxx

07-12-2020 19:21

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Well it's looking more and more like no deal is coming. Considering Boris Johnson said that this would be a 'failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible' is his position tenable going forward?

Mr K	07-12-2020 19:22

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36061295)

Fish is a Red Herring. Always has been. As long as we can put Union Jack on a boat we're happy....

Pierre

07-12-2020 19:35

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36061293)

Well I hope we keep our resolve and walk away if we need to. Us walking away would certainly not be the end, but at least it would finally let the EU know we are serious.

Just some thoughts

1. Level playing field? It nothing of the sort. It should be called the “you adhere to all our rules and laws...field”. Which is not on, as long as our products and services are of an equal standard how deliver them is down to us and no one else.

2. Fishing, I find the whole fishing question crazy. How can a sovereign nation not be in control of it’s own waters? It's not that France, Spanish, Dutch etc wouldn’t be allowed in, but it must be up to the U.K. to decide how many and how much they can catch.

Just as Norway and the EU currently do. Surely this should be acceptable and if not why not.

https://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/press...ements-2020_en

3. ECJ. What sovereign nation would allow themselves to be ruled over by a foreign court? Can anyone name one outside of the EU. Surely a system like they use for Canada should be acceptable, and if not why not?

https://www.lexology.com/library/det...e-0fc5dac44b80

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