Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

Quite a lot of anger among cabinet ministers about defending the PM's position this morning after various ministers were sent out to insist the vote was going ahead while No10 knew this was not the case.

Stuart

10-12-2018 15:46

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35974608)

And I don't think Theresa May is in a position where she can afford to anger her cabinet.

denphone

10-12-2018 15:51

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stuart (Post 35974609)

And I don't think Theresa May is in a position where she can afford to anger her cabinet.

Indeed but her enemies are increasingly all around her waiting for the right moment to stick their knives in to end her premiership.

Just watching the House of Commons speech and Priti Patel and Boris Johnson are sitting in the backrow at the far end of Commons muttering and head-shaking at almost everything Theresa May says

pip08456

10-12-2018 16:01

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35974592)

Why would the EU concede any of this?

I'm not saying they will.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35974605)

The problem then is that's it's not a backstop. The backstop is designed to kick in if all else falls and the deadline has been reached. Otherwise we're covered by the transition period. You at the very least would need to be generous with the length of the backstop to account for delays in coming to a permanent future arrangement.

Maybe the backstop is a joint arrangement for x amount of years before it defaults to Parliament.

The backstop if used would prevent us from reaching or own deals with other countries. I for one am not willing to keep ourselves bound to the EU for any longer. If no deal is reached with the EU after 3yrs then we leave with no deal.

Business will have had 5yrs from the referendum to prepare if they haven't then they only have themselves to blame for burying their heads in the sand.

I would prefer if we were leaving in March with no deal.

Sephiroth

10-12-2018 16:03

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35974607)

Doubt it. We have to pay that anyway.

My point is that if the EU bend because of the £39 billion, which I doubt will happen, then something reasonable might result. If our steel is maintained and the EU remains intransigent on the Backstop, then we don't pay the full £39 billion, only the £19 billion or so of committed money and go into No Deal.

jfman

10-12-2018 16:16

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35974613)

If our first action as a truly independent and “sovereign” nation is to renege on our debts to the European Union our credit ratings will collapse and we will be considered as negotiating in bad faith by any prospective trading partner.

Not going to happen.

Stuart

10-12-2018 16:20

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35974611)

Business will have had 5yrs from the referendum to prepare if they haven't then they only have themselves to blame for burying their heads in the sand.

I would prefer if we were leaving in March with no deal.

The problem is (from what I understand) that for a lot of businesses, Theresa May's government haven't communicated much more actual information than they've given the public. Brexit means Brexit is a good sound bite, but no help if you are planning changes to your product distribution or planning for supplies . Where the government have given specific data to businesses, it's only been given after they sign a non-disclosure agreement (which makes me think things are a lot worse than we've been told).

As for no deal. Nice idea, but listening to people who actually work with WTO rules rather than a couple of politicians who have little or no experience in international trade, I'm inclined to believe it would be considerably worse for the economy than what we have now. It could take decades to negotiate membership, and until we do, we are likely to pay high tariffs.

jfman

10-12-2018 16:21

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35974611)

The notion that “business” will pay the price for a lack of preparation is ludicrous. These are our employers, generally contributing to our country VAT, business rates, employers NICs. They pay our wages.

People at the end of the day will pay the price for a lack of preparation and it’s Government and the Leave campaign who said this would be the easiest negotiation ever, Europe on it’s knees.

We should remain until one single form of Brexit is agreed upon. With a five year transition from then. Only then will your point be valid.

jonbxx

10-12-2018 16:27

Re: Brexit

These shenanigans really does make you wonder what does a leader have to do to get the boot these days. Along with certain other leaders, it seems that you can do anything now and get away with it and if you get called on it, just deny everything!

Politicians who were at the top 10-20 years ago must be so jealous...

denphone

10-12-2018 16:30

Re: Brexit

l thought was pretty spot on comment from Yvette Cooper.

Quote:

Labour's Yvette Cooper says that the prime minister still sent out her ministers until 11am this morning to say that it was still going ahead.

"Does she not realise how chaotic and ridiculous this makes the whole country look?" she asks. She says the public "cannot trust the most basic things that our ministers are saying".

papa smurf

10-12-2018 16:30

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35974610)

She's answering questions put to her with waffle ,that's probably why the're muttering and shaking their heads.

Stuart

10-12-2018 16:31

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35974614)

This is where the ideal pushed by Johnson, Rees-Mogg et al falls short of reality. They think we can gain the upper hand by refusing to pay the 39bn. I don't think we can. The EU are asking that we pay our dues, but I don't think they'll be massively inconvenienced if we don't. Yes, it might cause some ripples in the money market, but they'll weather it. I doubt the EU will bend. They are likely not to be able to bend much. Why? If they "bend" for us, they will have to bend for the next country that tries to leave, and the next. They can't afford for that to happen.

On the other hand, we will be going into negotiations for almost every aspect of our international trade with a reputation of being an unreliable payer. This is likely to be reflected in tougher trading terms, or countries being unwilling to deal with us. The WTO may not be able to help, as we won't be members, and any request for membership requires the agreement of all members, in much the same way the EU requires agreement amongst its members for actions. We may not get that agreement if other countries think we are just going to run off without paying any debts.

I don't

denphone

10-12-2018 16:33

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35974620)

She's answering questions put to her with waffle ,that's probably why the're muttering and shaking their heads.

Of course they don't have any credible plans themselves do they...

jfman

10-12-2018 16:34

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stuart (Post 35974621)

This is where the ideal pushed by Johnson, Rees-Mogg et al falls short of reality. They think we can gain the upper hand by refusing to pay the 39bn. I don't think we can. The EU are asking that we pay our dues, but I don't think they'll be massively inconvenienced if we don't. Yes, it might cause some ripples in the money market, but they'll weather it. On the other hand, we will be going into negotiations for almost every aspect of our international trade with a reputation of being an unreliable payer. This is likely to be reflected in tougher trading terms, or countries being unwilling to deal with us. The WTO may not be able to help, as we won't be members, and any request for membership requires the agreement of all members, in much the same way the EU requires agreement amongst its members for actions. We may not get that agreement if other countries think we are just going to run off without paying any debts.

At the same time some of these other countries are trying to get trade deals with... the European Union.

Hugh	10-12-2018 16:42

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by techguyone (Post 35974587)

I think you like a lot of people seem to think we don't make anything anymore...

You're wrong

Some light reading for you: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/0...uring_figures/

And a chart for the hard of thinking. That's the Index of Production - our manufacturing base - failing to 'collapse'. The fact that we've also grown as global leaders in financial services does not mean that industry has gone away

From that 8 year old article.

Quote:

third thing is that manufacturing has fallen as a percentage of the economy. It is down to about 12% or so by some measures now, where once it was 50%

We also import 50% of our food, so a weaker pound means food price increases.

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