Re: Coronavirus
 

Usually there would be substance in your posts that I could break down and argue against, or for and drive the debate forward.

There is nothing in that diatribe above, nothing.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Now, now Pierre. Your inability to argue a counterpoint isn’t something to be ashamed of but unsurprising given the link you posted the other day about it being a conspiracy against AZ because it’s the cheap vaccine. Politicians meddling over science was the claim. Ironically it appears our politicians been doing that all along, including a plea to suppress the Channel 4 story.

I like the fact IDS loves freedom that much, opposing vaccine passports, he doesn’t want the population to have informed consent when taking the vaccine. The contradiction is hilarious really. Unsurprising, but hilarious.

Re: Coronavirus
 

All this, yet still many people think the 'experts' are right every time . . . about everything ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

OK then

But

And

What about

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov...id-in-schools/

Again, once everybody that needs to be vaccinated has been vaccinated we should just get on. Under 18’s being vaccinated will be at the discretion of the parents.

Being vaccinated should be/is a matter of personal choice.

Nobody should be discriminated against for not having the vaccine.

If we stick to those four principles, i don’t see what the issue would be

Re: Coronavirus
 

Back on the blood clotting risk thing, I found this paper from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University which is a very good discussion of the risks and benefits for the AZ vaccine in different age groups depending on the prevalence of COVID infections in the population.

The top figure is the standout one. At current infection rates, the risk of blood clots of the type seen in vaccinated patients in the 20-29 year age range is higher than the risk of ICU admission due to COVID.

If infection rates rise, then the risk/benefit swings towards vaccination but of course we want to go towards lower rates...

Re: Coronavirus
 

With the best will in the world Pierre you're making the same false assumptions as the herd immunity crowd last March.

Transmission in schools remains low while community prevalence is low. It's inevitable that infection, given time without mitigation, will spread and infect significant proportions of the school age population and into the wider population - among those unvaccinated and where vaccine efficacy has waned.

It's then an absolute inevitability that at a later date we will be spending more time, money and effort in lockdowns against an escape variant.

I agree being vaccinated should be a matter of choice. However if too many people choose not to the herd immunity threshold is never hit and we spend years firefighting.

If we say it's not safe to vaccinate teenagers and those younger why would someone in their early 20s volunteer to take it? Suddenly HIT requires almost 100% uptake of a 90% vaccine - something we've not seen against new variants.

If we get 70% uptake of a 70% vaccine then mutant variants are an absolute inevitability.

Vaccinate the vulnerable is 2021s 'shield the vulnerable'. While it's rational to want HIT to be achieved by other people taking the vaccine - personal risk becomes zero - the problem is where everyone chooses to be rational at an individual level.

---------- Post added at 09:27 ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 ----------

So a rational individual doesn't take the vaccine but hopes everyone else does. Especially whatever politician was leaning on Channel 4 to suppress the story because it could slow easing of restrictions by a mere two weeks.

Re: Coronavirus
 

No, they’re not - but they’re right more often about things because they base their decisions & recommendations on science & experience, and are willing to change their decisions & recommendations when new evidence comes to light.

No one is right all the time about everything - but I assume you trust your doctor’s diagnosis over some random in the street?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Talking of herd immunity.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...eshold-monday/

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yeah, this is where health messaging becomes difficult and can also be an illuminating window into the British pysche. If we look back at the start of this whole thing, the messaging was 'protect the NHS'. The NHS polls well in this country as most people are proud of the NHS as a British institution. Eventually though, messaging gets old and things change and went from protecting the NHS to a more fearful message. What is interesting however is the fearful message wasn't out ward looking - 'behave yourselves or you will kill someone's nan' but more a 'you really don't want to get COVID'.

Masks are a great example of this. The evidence of masks protecting the user is low but the evidence of masks protecting other is much stronger. This was picked up by anti mask people early on as evidence masks don't work which is somewhat true but only for the person wearing them. Mask wearing protects others. So why isn't mask wearing pitched as a civic duty? Do the people putting together the messaging think that we wouldn't care about protecting others or do they know that we wouldn't care about protecting others? The best case scenario is the first but I fear it is the second.

This is where we get to vaccines. The absolute necessity of vaccines for the protection 18-30 years olds is probably low (again, long COVID excepted) but, as jfman said, we need to get the uptake up for herd immunity or at least to lower the Re value. Matt Hancock said this morning on the BBC that is was your 'patriotic duty' to be vaccinated which is arguable (in that I don't want to argue about this!) but it is definitely a civic duty for younger people to be vaccinated to help protect the older population who either didn't seroconvert or couldn't be jabbed.

We tend to get more right wing as we age. Left wing politics is more around collective responsibility in contrast with more personal responsibility on the right side of things. Should we be pitching vaccination as a duty to society when the time comes for younger people to get jabbed?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Actually no I don't. All my doctor wants to do is prescribe me numerous tablets based on the rather shady 5 minute 'telephone consultation' that is the norm nowadays. I haven't seen a doctor in a year - in fact I'm close to telling the practice to get stuffed and simply use the hospital casualty dept. instead :rolleyes:

I guess you could also call me an expert in 'not believing everything an expert says', although I've never published any papers on it ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Only in the absence of other vaccines. Ideally you'd get non-AZ, and not care what everyone else gets as long as they get one.

Just wondering: Are all three approved vaccines still considered 100% effective against serious illness? If not, any difference probably outweighs the blood clot risk.

How convenient!

Re: Coronavirus
 

Or you simply change the dynamics of the question.

“What’s in it for me?”

This is where vaccine passports/certification presents a significant opportunity to shift vaccination from being ‘for the collective good’ to in someone’s personal interest. That’s why they are absolutely inevitable - to inconvenience those who want to sit back and opt out of the 70%+.

---------- Post added at 11:51 ---------- Previous post was at 11:47 ----------

You’re assuming we are being given all the information.

With political pressure from Tory backbenchers, and arguably Government itself, to prop up confidence in the vaccination drive to speed up easing restrictions the legitimate question remains would they tell us if any red flags arose?

I’d contest that the evidence from the MHRA to date suggests they would not.

Re: Coronavirus
 

My second JAB is Saturday 10th (Oxford vaccine)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Source material for the herd immunity claim - lots of caveats...

https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/co...ing_040421.pdf

---------- Post added at 14:39 ---------- Previous post was at 14:37 ----------

Sorry to hear you’ve got a duff medic - never good.

Can’t you change doctor/practice?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Time unleash the Nuffield Intervention Ladder :tu: By my reckoning, we're half up the ladder at 'Guide choice by changing the default policy' as every adult is being offered a jab by default.