Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Several months in to this discussion and you're still confusing 'linear' and 'streaming'.

They are not the same. 'Linear' means a fix schedule; 'streaming' is a method of delivering data - that data might be a linear TV schedule or it might be an individual selection from a library. The BBC presents all of its content by way of streaming *right now* - its linear schedule is streamed via the iplayer.

As for the rest of your post, well, several of us have been trying to explain to you for months now, where your assumptions are faulty - you continue to be unwilling or unable to separate your personal preferences from economic reality, so there's little point rehearsing it all again.

There will still be a broadcast TV service 20 years from now. I'd put money on it.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

A combination that many people use, including myself. And you don't need to spend £6.99 on Now TV; three month passes are readily available for £15, and even better bargains turn up every now and again, such as the Amazon and other stores' Black Friday sale of six month pass + box for £19, working out at about £3 p/m.

If you add a smart DNS service at around £2.50 p/m, you also get access to much more content via Netflix, and free add supported Hulu, filling in most of the US Network TV shows missing from Now TV.

I currently also subscribe to HBO Nordic which gives me, besides current shows, back catalogue HBO and the same current and back season content with some Showtime and AMC shows.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I'm not saying, and I don't know if Old Boy said it either, that linear TV will end, but the evidence that he has provided shows that peoples viewing habits are definitely changing!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

He introduced that very idea here:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/35755307-post63.html

and expanded on it at length over the following weeks.

I don't disagree that viewing habits are changing. The way people have consumed information and entertainment has changed with every new invention since the alphabet. However, we cannot even discuss the complete abolition of linear TV until there is a clear roadmap to universal broadband availability of at least 24Mbps, uncapped and guaranteed 24 hours a day, to every single home in the UK. Right now, we have neither the data infrastructure to deliver it, nor the electricity generating capacity to run it, nor any plans as to how it should be done.

Broadcast TV works because it is simple and economical and it just works, for millions of people at a time. It is going nowhere, within the lifetime of anyone in this discussion.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

This.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Yet again, you are assuming that nothing will change over the next 20 years, Chris, which is just plain daft. Do you really think that we will still be stressing about a lack of broadband capacity in 20 years' time? Of course not.

And in 20 years' time, our 20 year olds will be 40 year olds and the futility of wasting all that time waiting for a scheduled programme to begin and losing half an hour over a 2 hour period to adverts will not have been lost on them.

With this shift of viewing habits, advertising on linear broadcast TV will cease to be attractive to advertisers, who will come up with alternative means of promoting their products. When the tipping point arrives, the existing broadcast TV channels will start their long decline.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nope. Streaming services like Netflix have a bright future. More people will use them as fast broadband becomes more widely available. Plenty will change - but plenty will not. There will still be a healthy broadcast TV service in the UK 20 years from now, with no long-term plan in place to close it down.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

So how do you see the commercial broadcast linear channels being financed as audiences shift away from them, Chris? You have not explained this in the reasoning behind your conviction.

Remember how close ITV came to financial meltdown when advertising declined during the recent recession? It really wouldn't take much for the dominos to start toppling.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The worst recession since the invention of the TV and ITV, so they claimed, *nearly* went bust - but they didn't, did they?

And commercial channels currently broadcasting to far smaller audiences than ITV have survived. The evidence is clear to see. Even a modest FTA broadcaster offers advertisers a broader reach, in a shorter time, than an on-demand provider (some of whom aren't even accepting advertising at present).

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

They nearly went bust, but didn't. Well, that's comforting.....

If the big players like ITV, Channel 4, 5 and Sky decide that it no longer pays to broadcast on traditional channels, they will cease transmissions or use them as showcase channels to promote what is available to stream. People will end up losing interest and won't bother to view the smaller channels any more.

One thing you should know is that it costs a small fortune to broadcast channels in the old fashioned way. The schedules have to be worked out, the timings have to be exact, the announcements have to be included between the programmes, the advertisements have to be inserted during the times available, etc. Whereas it is a fairly straight forward and much less time consuming simply to load the programmes onto a streaming site.

For your sake and of others who think as you do, I hope I am wrong, but I just can't see how the sums would add up if audiences migrate to streaming services in ever increasing numbers over the years.

Hell, even you might change your viewing habits over a 20 year timescale! ;)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

My viewing habits while l am still here on gods earth will still considerably involve linear TV and linear TV will still be here when many others things will have gone the way of the dodo despite what some forum doomsayers say.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, it's all down to future viewing habits and economics in the end, Den, that is for sure.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I think some channels fail on the exact bit OB :D

I think you will find things like announcements and add insertion is automated, often using pre-recordings for announcements. I always remember years ago when the Hallmark pre-recorded announcements got out of sync and the wrong shows were being announced.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, it's been almost a year since I commented on this thread and although he gets berated from some members, I broadly agree with Old Boy.

My original comments are on page 2, so I'll not repeat those, except to say that is is the content, the programmes, that are key. Not who broadcasts/streams them.

Somethings may well stay the same, but some won't....

I was born into a world of 3 broadcast channels. My parents were born into a world of none. Today there are hundreds of channels as well as VOD and streaming services.

30 years ago, Christmas shows would regularly get 20 million viewers each, today prime time shows are lucky if they get much beyond 7 million.

I think technology has had a major disruptive effect on broadcast, linear television. The latest incarnation, of which, is streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon. But, over the last week several million viewers still sat in front of their tellies each day and watched depressing crap like Eastenders, or whatever other depressing, bleak stuff has been on the box over Christmas. (Dickensian shows, Call The Midwife, some other rubbish set in darkly shot scenes with actors who mumble...etc)

But I think things are cyclical to a point, things tend to go full circle.

I think we will see some form of merging of linear and non linear tv, aided by a super-tivo like, or Netflix like interface.

I think there will probably still remain the 5 main broadcast channels, but these will act like shop windows to other places. I think if you watch a show like Eastenders, you will get some form of on screen graphic highlighting similar shows, but you'll also get a selection of completely different choices as well to wet your appetite.

I do not think any distinction will be made between a linear tv channel, bar special event tv like major football events, and non linear tv. It's hard to explain as it doesn't exist yet!, but tv will get "smarter", smart tvs actually will learn what you like and don't like and tailor your viewing accordingly.

So, at the moment there is the choice between zapping between linear tv channels or looking through menus of VOD or streaming shows. I think this will disappear, as will the hundreds of linear tv channels that exist today. They'll be a few broadcaster channels, but tv will have a Netflix ish style system (far better than today's) which will guide viewers to various choices.

My predictions for the next 20-30 years:

The BBC in its current form will not exist. The license fee will have been killed off a long time by then.

ITV, CH4, Ch5 may remain, but not in their current form.

The hundreds of satellite and cable channels will not exist.

Netflix and Amazon Prime will not exist.

TV will actually become smart and do the donkey work for you and find something for you to watch.

The creators of content will be king and although major media companies may still exist, it is the creators/writers of stuff that will be in the driving seat.

In 30 years time, a major show or sports event could be watched by 20 million+ viewers all watching at the same time in a very linear, old fashioned way.

---------- Post added at 00:39 ---------- Previous post was at 00:12 ----------

I suppose what I'm saying is that tv shows used to be watched at the same time by whole swathes of the country. I strongly believe tv will go BACK to this.

Currently linear tv, especially the main broadcast channels, have made themselves irrelevant and largely unwatchable. Tv is dominated by soaps, celebrity chefs, bargain hunt, buying a house, follow the police around, other reality type shows.

BUT, I do not believe tv is irrelevant, but a very powerful medium and if you get the right show (Game of Thrones as an example) you get what tv execs call the watercooler moment. When people in offices are talking about the same tv show that was on the night before. This is what ALL tv execs want.

But at the moment everyone is heading towards M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction). Audiences of broadcast channels here and in America are dwindling and not sustainable for much longer.

Streaming services are threatening the traditional tv bundle of channels and will eventually kill them off. So, we will reach a point where there will be a lot of blood on the carpet and the causalities will be immense in the media world. But out of the mess, will come order and decent tv will prevail and Jon Snow will become king. :LOL:

Happy New Year to you ALL. :beer:

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I agree with most of Horizon's post. Just two points, though.

There is no reason why live events such as football and new series cannot be watched from a given start time, so everyone can watch at the same time. The difference will be that if you are late turning on or you want to see it the next day, the next week or whenever, it will still be there. No more need to record things.

My second point is that I believe that the BBC, Netflix and Amazon will still exist in 30 years' time, although it is possible that Netflix could be taken over, of course. I doubt that would happen to Amazon as it is simply massive, but I don't rule it out altogether. I just don't see a scenario in which this may happen.

The BBC could survive as a linear broadcast channel, but it will be driven harder to cut costs as it relies more on subscriptions when the licence fee is phased out. So although, without commercials, people may be more inclined to watch BBC channels as now, it will simply be too costly an option to maintain, with all the other terrestrials having died off.

A lot will happen in the future and one cannot be precise, but I think Horizon and I are not far off beam. I will come back to this post in 20 years' time if I'm still alive and sane by then!

---------- Post added at 09:23 ---------- Previous post was at 09:09 ----------

I think Sky still do this, but someone has to do the voice overs and programmes still have to be scheduled by people.

I certainly agree with you about the accuracy of advertised start times, although it is quite deliberate that for example Coronation Street will start sometimes at 7.28 or 7.33, even though the advertised start time is 7.30. They do this for a variety of reasons which will be known in advance by the channel, but it all works out neatly so that a particular programme starts on time later in the evening.

Most will have noticed that except where a live event is extended, the BBC's 10 o'clock News always starts on time, despite the end of Eastenders being cut off from recording earlier in the evening because it overran by three minutes!

Not that I watch Eastenders, of course, but I hear my wife from the kitchen sometimes when that happens! oops:

---------- Post added at 09:28 ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 ----------

Well, you will only be able to do that if nothing changes in the meantime, Den.

I've still not heard any convincing thoughts on your side of the argument as to how all these broadcast linear channels will be funded as most of the audience drifts away to a more efficient means of viewing.

You can bury your head in the sand, but that won't stop progress from happening. The trend is already there big time in the US, and we will see the same happening here before too long.

Time will prove me right on this, I have no doubt.