Re: Brexit discussion
 

Surely you cannot be saying that some of the people that voted Leave did so on the basis of lies and misinformation by Mr Farage et al? I mean, as we all know, everyone knows what they voted for and is more than happy to reiterate it at regular intervals.

To explore this ridiculous idea a bit further, are you saying that the majority gained in the EU Referendum may not have been attained if some of the people voting Leave were told the truth and not led up the garden path? I mean, it was the Will of the People after all ...

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I’m not saying that, I’m just posting what they said..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Until the required answer is given! :D

People have well and truly seen through that one, Damien, and that is not what I call democracy. A cynical manipulation of the electorate by the establishment is what that is and I don't accept it.

---------- Post added at 18:58 ---------- Previous post was at 18:47 ----------

We will be getting a no tariff trade deal as part of the deal which will be on offer. I accept, however, that we are not there yet with an arrangement on services.

I have not tried to 'move the debate on to something else entirely' as you put it at all. The Brexit debate has many aspects to it, and I'm not going to keep saying the same thing on the same subject many times over to please you. :rolleyes: I think I really ought to pull you up for ignoring my point about forecasts being wrong time and again, including about Brexit.

I know of many Remainers who see a dystopian future, Andrew. Glad to see you're not one of them....or so you say. :D

---------- Post added at 19:06 ---------- Previous post was at 18:58 ----------

It says that early on in the report, and later on it mentions a 'Canada style' free trade deal.

I don't see what the date of the article has to do with it. Barnier has been of this view for some time, but remainers tend to ignore that fact.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

That's a relief then :)

---------- Post added at 21:50 ---------- Previous post was at 21:46 ----------

Quite right, OB! A cynical manipulation of the electorate is not what I call democracy either. Oh wait .... you didn't mean the Leave campaign did you? Damn ...

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Just for one minute, I hoped he had left the dark side behind because he's a great chap. I thought the establishment references could only apply to people like Rupert Murdoch, Paul Dacre, Rees-Mogg, the Barclays brother and their Daily Telegraph, millionaire Richard Desmond with his Daily Express and Tim Martin with his Wetherspoons pubs. My bad.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

It may not be what you call Democracy but dissent is a legitimate part of ours.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Dissent, yes. But re-runs of referenda until you get the 'right' answer are not.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

No one is proposing that Old Boy. What some are proposing is the public get to vote on the final deal. That's entirely different.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I think you are picking hairs, Andrew. We voted to come out. Brexit means Brexit. It's really not complicated!

Re: Brexit discussion
 

If you don't agree with a second vote then by all means say so. But to resort to politicians' talk of calling it reruns of referenda just demotes you to their level. Old Boy, you know you can rise above their sound bites.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

No-one is saying protests and dissent is not part of democracy. What is NOT democracy, is those trying to reject the vote result by saying we know better than the people that they have chosen the wrong choice, that is dictatorship.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

But I haven't advocated that. If OB wants to complain about that do so it someone who did.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Exactly. Why some have to resort to straw men arguments is beyond me.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Back to the exit negotiations, another forum pointed me to a nice briefing sheet for the House of Lords comparing the UK Government, European Council and European Parliaments positions on future UK/EU relations - https://www.parliament.uk/documents/...ison-table.pdf

Some nice colour coding with green showing full agreement, yellow showing agreement in principle but without an agreement on the 'how' and red showing no agreement. Old Boy is right in all sides seeking a zero tariff trade agreement for goods. Non-tariff barriers do loom in the Council position though.

Also good news on mutual recognition of qualifications, science and education and culture

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Thanks for this helpful and constructive post.

As others have highlighted, the EU would be very keen for a free trade deal in manufactured goods as this is what they sell to us. But the EU is not keen on a free trade deal in services which is what we sell to them.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

That is what I was saying in post 2582:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=2852

You can pretty much cite the "will of the people" at your will - as and when you need.

Think of it in regards to the wet dreams Sturgeon has about independence - imagine her to say that the voters should get a vote on the eventual deal.

Imagine her having to somersault through rhetorical gymnastics to avoid setting the precedent that the Scottish (and English) voters would get a say on a final referendum deal. It won't ever matter because there will never be a successful independence vote but it will be hilarious to make her squirm, right lol?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Exactly, your previous post well and truly nailed the "will of the people" soundbite but doubtless Sturgeon and others will cling onto it.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

This comes and goes though - in fairness me and Mick have seen a bunch of issues differently and other than our common loathing of Hillary Clinton (and seeing as her as the spawn on Satan) we don't have much in common. None the less I don't take his differences with me as abuse.

I also know that while some of it may be a bit testier than we like it to, Mick's comments at the end of his post about keeping it on topic have allowed me quite a lot of room for maneuver in spite of it discussing religion and what not:

In spite of that, both of us still mad a reply, and I posted up to this post:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=2937

But ultimately it was getting way away from Brexit so I let it go - but me and him did still have the scope to explore it farther without any sanction.

People are very emotional about the EU. A lot of it is very raw (for everyone) and ultimately a bunch of us will have wildly differing views.

Me and him are arguing in a different thread about gun rights:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...9&postcount=69

It is pretty polar opposite but as he just said, on some things we have to agree to disagree.

Issues like Europe, religion etc are usually some of them. :)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

More Mayhem from both main parties!

1. The Conservative Party
https://news.sky.com/story/pm-risks-...usion-11403791

2. The Labour Party
https://news.sky.com/story/five-labo...-vote-11403982

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Brexit is symbolic of something bigger than just the economic and legal arguments (kinda like Guns in the US) which is why it provokes so much anger. It's people identities and their understanding of themselves and their country.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

All Lords Amendments to EU Withdrawal bill are rejected by close of day today..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

See Rees-Mogg is taking precautions in case of a hard Brexit. He's setting up an Investment fund in
Ireland ! Such faith in the UK ! Hypocrite.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ranch-ireland/

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Re: Brexit discussion
 

And there are quite a few of them Mr K espousing one thing and then behind our back doing exactly the opposite..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

No different to this.


He only owns 15% or so of the firm, so it's NOT his firm as such.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I'm afraid you can't dance around the facts Nomad. Jacob William Rees-Mogg (MP) co-founded the firm, works in it (nice little £168k a supplement to the day job !), and much of his families wealth is tied up in it. They are creating a fund in Ireland because of the dangers of Brexit.

These Brexit hypocrites are looking after themselves, they know it's going to be bad, however that's for the plebs, no reason they should suffer.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

He doesn't have control over the firm, and as you said he co-founded it, ie others were and are involved. It is a fund for OTHERS to invest in, IF they so wish.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

https://www.ft.com/content/38987fe2-...3-6c13e5c92914

Nothing to do with Brexit, the Ireland Investment decision and JRM does not make investment decisions. This is this ridiculous argument put to bed. :rolleyes:

And so what if he co-founded it and makes a nice sum from it, it's totally legal and he is perfectly entitled as are his family, to make a nice profit from it, that's the whole point of being a shareholder.

So he is being attacked here for what exactly (Apart from being a firm believer in Brexit)?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

He's being attacked for being completely two-faced - even the Torygraph readers are giving him stick.

If Jacob William Rees-Mogg (MP) is a firm believer in Brexit and believes UK will be successful in future, he should stop working for his own company and withdraw all money/interest in disgust surely ?! He won't because he knows setting up an Investment within the EU protects his money and that's what counts. He's got to have something to fall back when Brexit reality hits the rest of us !

He could maybe join his fellow Brexit disciple Lord Lawson, who has applied for residency in France ! - another true believer who knows what's good for the rest of us, and what's good for them.... :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit discussion
 

What part of, “He doesn’t make investment decisions” & his partner of the firm saying “This is nothing to do with Brexit”, do you not understand?

As for the tripe from you about being worse off.. more Groundhog Day claptrap. The World is a much larger trading place than the corrupted EU in which it’s market share is expected to shrink in the next 5 years.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

something to fall back on??

Like the money he earns as an MP isn't enough to live on if everything else falls flat on it's bottom?

You Remainers need to stop looking at how the 'rich' will be worse off under Brexit . . they'll always come out in pocket.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

You've reached a new level of left wing fantasy with that one, Mr K! :LOL:

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Ummm...what? He and his wife have a net worth of over 100 million (if not more) and you think as a basic amount, a salary of 75 000 is enough for him to live on??

The rich will be absolutely fine, whichever way.

It will (and has always) be the poor that suffer.

Every. Single. Time.

---------- Post added at 20:03 ---------- Previous post was at 19:34 ----------

The Torygraph? (Or do you mean the Telegraph?)

If anything, it is the other way round. If he pulled out all his money (whatever is his and whatever is not, I dunno) then everyone would say "see, without being a member of the EU it is more costly to invest in Europe".

Him keeping his money there is him putting his money where his mouth is - I think. (Though it may have nothing to do with him, like Mick elaborated).

To be fair though, at no point did any of the leave folks say that every leave voter should stay in the UK though. They said leaving the EU was best for the UK, not that them staying in the UK was best for them. Living in France may be what is best for Lawson.

I didn't think he did a good job as chancellor, don't agree with him on Europe but he is free to go live where he wants. (And I would kind of like his daughter to come cook for me some day, too).

Re: Brexit discussion
 

More mayhem, this time on the Conservative benches with Theresa May sandwiched between Remainers and Leavers. Will be interesting to see how this pans out!

https://www.ft.com/content/3ecdac2a-...3-6c13e5c92914

Alternative article: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8399356.html

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I am glad that someone else posted that - this is exactly what I mean by May being one of life's "givers". She will just try crowd surf / play the members of parliament, one at a time.

Pro EU members give her a hard time, she tries to placate them.

Leave MPs get pissy, she lets Davis amend griev's proposal.

Same with abortion, same with the issue of Trump, on every issue going. She is one of life's givers. The most humiliated PM the UK will ever see. She just gives in to ever single opposition member and does what they tell her to - her own cabinet even laugh at her, in parliament.

Yesterday's PMqs were just telling:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b09d7a3d79019a

Look at how humiliated and ashen face she is - like her skirt or knickers just fell down in front of the entire parliament.

Her own foreign secretary was laughing at her and she looked absolutely beaten.

This is why it is better to keep her in place - there is no person who will ever be as "humiliate-able" as her, ever again.

When asked about cabinet differences over Europe, before the referendum, William Hague said that there are two types of Tories in regards to Europe: Euro skeptic members who supported staying the EU and Euro Skeptic Tories who favored leaving the EU. That got rapturous laughter from everyone he said it to in the room and I would propose that there are two types of Tory member at the moment:

Those who love to humiliate her from the leave camp

And those who love to humiliate her from the remain camp.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I get that you don't like Mrs May but seriously, do we really want someone in charge of the country at this most critical time who is so spineless?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

You don't find it in the slightest bit amusing of how literally she takes the whole May Bot issue? (Others pull the strings / have their hand up her butt).

Grant Schnapps led the original move to try oust her, he got smoked by Williamson (so Wiliamson claims) and now Schnapps wants her to stay on as PM - not because he supports her but because he wants his share of the pie. Everyone else got their piece, why doesn't he get some?

You are correct though, it is a serious issue Ianch99 and yes it would be better if she had a shred of dignity after the GE and resigned but she doesn't so why don't we enjoy her humiliation as much as she seems to - what else can we all do but try get our piece of that cake, and eat it, too?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

The most amusing thing is seeing posters on here praising her skills and stating that anything to the contrary is Remainer spin. :dunce:

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Theresa May fails to appease Tory rebels on Brexit bill
Tory rebels have accused "sneaky" ministers of backtracking on a promise over Brexit legislation, setting up a Commons showdown.

https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-m...snt-sf-twitter

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Okay don't take this the wrong way (I am not asking you to do my work, I promise) but if i were to go back months on end I assume that yes I would find the odd post supportive of her (due to the fact that she was still promising what she could) but as of late is there seriously one single person on here that still supports her on....anything?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

You are mostly right except for one point: people will support her, for no other reason, than if she falls, it risks ushering in a Corbyn Government.

This country has been renowned for common sense, middle of the road, no risk, politics. Now we have a choice of a Clown or a Puppet to steer the country through the storms ahead .... depressing ..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I think most of us are speechless at some of these comments, which are frankly naive in the extreme and do not take account of the difficulty of dealing with the lack of a parliamentary majority, dissent within the party in that situation, a hostile EU negotiation process and a host of European countries, each with a different take on the situation.

Seriously, would you expect Corbyn to do better? No way! He can't even gain credibility within his own party.

This is difficult - big time, and whatever you might say about Theresa May, she persists, and she is edging us closer to the finishing line by stealth.

Oh, and by the way, it was the incredulous Labour Opposition that Cabinet members were laughing at in PMQs, not their Leader! Nice little spin you put on that! We saw what you did... :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Where did I ever say that the leader of the Labour party was laughing at May?

I said it was so bad for the PM, that even her own foreign secretary laughed at Corbyn's joke, which he was the inspiration for.

Now, onto your other points.

Would Corbyn do better? Well, he couldn't do worse, that is for sure. (Though I am not sure where you are translating my loathing of May into support for Corbyn).

Right, now to the issue of how difficult the job is. Simply put : May needs to suck it up. She wants the job of PM (and couldn't do the honorable thing and quit) then she needs to quit whining, grow a pair and be competent at her job. Which she is clearly not. She is woeful. There was an article I read today, about her and who else would be better for the job.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/652427...t-theresa-may/

I'll copy and post of some of the snippets of the article:

This part of it hits the nail on the head:

This is all she ever does, whores herself out to every single side. One side wants more, she gives. Another side wants more, she goes back to them. Going back on her word, every single time. Why? All for the premise of staying in power. She is a power greedy tramp.

Now, this part is like you, when you say:

You know what your comments remind me of?

The people that John Boehner was making fun of in this clip (the Tea Party):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHSWe81f3yw

Quit whining and crying - now I get it...like with Hillary, you wanted a coronation, didn't you? Diddums...next are you going to tell me that it is sexist for me to blast May and her policies / her stupidity and her incompetence?

When you say you are talking about my comments, right?

When she decided to run for the job, did she expect everyone to roll over and just give her what she wanted, just coz? Did she not expect dissent in her party, or did she want a dictatorship? Did she not think that 27 member states would have a different take on the issue?? Did she think that would get this all handed to her on a plate?

Seriously, does she think that she is queen?

As for the lack of a majority in parliament, that is because the people rejected giving her one. She is useless - she had a majority given to her, she chose to do the honorable thing, and allow the electorate to give her a massive "FU". Though instead of resigning, like she should have, she clings on to power like a desperate pathetic little woman.

She gave Brady a recommendation for a knighthood, so she could avoid him calling as the chair of the committee if enough letters came his way, she doesn't persist. She is the dirtiest little piece of filth Westminster has ever seen as PM. She is a beggar and pathetic, she gives any woman who can stomach her a bad name - she is a disgrace to the entire house, to our gender and makes our entire country look stupid round the entire planet.

You don't strike me as the snowflake type but if you would like me to post more in accordance with her pathetic delicate little sensitivities let me know, and I will pretend that all is well in Narnia and just talk as if we are in a fantasy land.

This is why I love people who have principle, because remain or leave voter, you will have no love for this woman. She is someone who will put her finger up in the air and see which way the wind blows, not a genuine bone of anything, in her body.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I didn't bother taking much notice of the previous post when I saw it was quoted from 'The Sun' :rofl:

Anyway, if you really want May 'to quit whining, grow a pair and be competent at her job' then you shouldn't moan if she does grow a pair and tells the EU to get lost. ;) She could also tell the 'dissenters' to shut up or she'll replace them with Pro Brexit people . . the door is over there . . . :D

Not that she's stupid enough to do either of those, because she knows she'll get slammed by the public & media for being 'a bully strong character' :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit discussion
 

There is a wierd paradox approaching where Mrs May after concluding a deal with the EU, is trying not to get this deal approved by Parliament.

The tragic irony is that a lot of Leave voters voted specifically "to take back control" as promoted by:

They stressed time and time again that the British Parliament must be sovereign ... except when it has the opportunity to assess the most important piece of legislation in 50+ years.

What times we live in :)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

They cheer-lead for the nationalists more than even the Daily Mail..I suppose we both can't stand them, but for different reasons?

Did I ever moan about such a thing though? I like it when she does - the really fun part is the end where the reciprocal approach is "no" from the EU. (I would say "most enjoyable, but that is too much cringe).

She could always try - I would like to see that outcome...you know, when they topple her government in return?

They only don't to see what they get out of her...plus the fear of a Corbyn government.

Uh huh? Like when she tries, someone smacks her back and then she plays the gender card / claims that it is sexist? I would love to see her try do either of those things, see if she has it in her.

Nobody called Thatcher a bully, did they? (Or did they - I was a bit young for that).

Strength is exactly that - what May is, is nothing of the sort. She is weak.

Being a bully is not proposing something to the EU, then running scared because they smacked you back, like the last 18 months or so for May. Then claim that they are being the bullies while you claim that you were strong. Give me a break.

I don't know why Ken Clarke called her a bloody difficult woman (she can't even get the first part of that correct) ; the moderates of her party (the likes of Soubry and co) can't stand her, the hardcore right (The likes of Redwood / Mogg etc have said they have doubts in her), the populists like Johnson are looking to replace her.

Not one person will ever accuse her of being a bully. She is a victim. One of life's proverbial self martyred attention seeking victims.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Routinely.



:D

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Nailed it. I hope the reality of the matter is starting to sink in with the country but I fear some are still in Narnia.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I think that's absolutely spot on Andrew, the reality is that the UK is leaving the EU, some however still find it a difficult notion to grasp ;) :p:

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I have decided to cross the road.

Looking around, I see a lorry coming towards me, but having decided to cross the road, I will not let any obstacles, no matter how dangerous, stop me crossing the road - any pain I suffer will be worth it in the long term, as long as I have achieved my goal.

It doesn't matter that no one mentioned lorries were going to intersect my path when I made my decision, the important thing is I do not let relevant current information which was not available at the time I decided to cross the rooad which might validly affect what I am trying to do change my mind.

Excellent approach to life.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

i have decided to block your path because i think you are incapable of making a rational decision .
And i have decided to chain you to this side of the road for your own good, it's much nicer on this side and i don't think you need to see what it's like on the other side.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I have crossed the road

I am a chicken

Nobody really knows why I crossed the road

:D:D:D

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Some philosophically claim the chicken crossing the road is about suicide, possibly a good analogy for this thread topic to :shrug:

https://www.esquire.com/uk/life/news...the-road-joke/

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Terrible pessimistic analogy.

People cross the road every day and many many people, make it to the other side, there is no lorry coming, no impending doom, no risk to injury. I call it successful optimism; I plan to cross the road, check for risks, no risks, I then cross, I am now on the other side. Positive outcome & Success.

---------- Post added at 10:41 ---------- Previous post was at 10:03 ----------

Dr Philips the MP who resigned earlier in the week over the meaningful vote in parliament row (or what I call Remainers trying to stop Brexit with the meaningful vote), his Constituency (Of which over 50% voted leave) has sent nearly 100 letters of complaint... The chair of Dr Philip Lee's local Conservative Association told Sky News, he's had nearly 100 letters & emails complaining about his decision to resign and only one in favour.

Source. Sophie Ridge on Sunday (Sky News).

I thought us Brexiteers were suppose to be changing our minds over Brexit? #IStillWantToLeaveEU

---------- Post added at 11:07 ---------- Previous post was at 10:41 ----------

Seems like the suggestion of giving the NHS the funds we give to EU Membership is going to go ahead after all...

https://news.sky.com/story/live-ther...r-nhs-11407445

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Sarah Wollaston MP
‏
Verified account

@sarahwollaston
38m
38 minutes ago

The Brexit dividend tosh was expected but treats the public as fools. Sad to see Govt slide to populist arguments rather than evidence on such an important issue. This will make it harder to have a rational debate about the ‘who & how’ of funding & sharing this fairly.



Paul Johnson
‏
Verified account

@PJTheEconomist
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Follow @PJTheEconomist

New piece on the NHS Brexit dividend. It does not exist. In fact we would need to spend £1bn a year more just to compensate NHS staff for the higher prices already seen since the referendum. http://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-brexit-divi...form=hootsuite …

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Absolute rubbish. More fear mongering crap from that MP who is one of the rebels trying to thwart Brexit - she will lose.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

It's obviously not a Brexit dividend but who cares as long as the money is coming. Looks like tax raises in the budget are a-coming though

Re: Brexit discussion
 

exactly

Re: Brexit discussion
 

It was allegory, not an analogy...

“Successful optimism” = "Something magic will happen, don't worry".

You can dispute the law of gravity, but it doesn’t care when you step off the cliff if you believe in it or not...

Re: Brexit discussion
 

And the clever little stealth tax rises they will hide in the obfuscation of the small print..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Spot on Damien. (The only Brexit dividend is being gained is by Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris as all those financial services relocate some of their operations there.)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

If the working population of the UK (currently a tad over 32 million according to June 2018 figures) all paid 10p per week into an NHS fund, it would generate almost £333 million per year.

I wouldn't miss 10p a week . . or £1 a week.

And yes, to be honest it's nothing at all to do with Brexit, it's been on the cards for a while.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Director Of The Institute For Fiscal Studies: There Is No Brexit Dividend

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presente...exit-dividend/

Re: Brexit discussion
 

The Brexit bonus is cobblers, but at least there's a recognition by politicians, and hopefully the public, that taxes will need to rise if we want an NHS in future.

---------- Post added at 16:44 ---------- Previous post was at 16:41 ----------

There you go again Mick, determined to have 'winners' and 'losers'.....:rolleyes:

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Paul Johnson's attitude is clear from the following statement he made:

"What Brexit is essentially about is making trade more difficult with our nearest, biggest and richest neighbour.

"That in the end, that is the economics of Brexit. We are withdrawing from a Single Market, presumably, and withdrawing from a customs union, presumably, and that just has to make us worse off.

"How much worse off we don't know. It might be a relatively small amount. Hopefully a good deal less traumatic than the [2008] financial crisis."

So his assessment clearly assumes that we will not get the deal that Theresa May has said we will get. It is only when you assume the worst outcomes of these negotiations that you can realistically come to such a conclusion.

He 'knows' that we will be worse off, but doesn't know by how much and it might be a relatively small amount!

Not exactly the precision we should expect, I think it is fair to say!

---------- Post added at 22:01 ---------- Previous post was at 21:59 ----------

TM tells us that not only will we be getting more than was stated on the side of that bus, but we will get even more and yet all you can do is criticise!

This is more money than Labour are proposing to spend on the NHS!!

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Well, sorry Old Boy but unless you're Nostradmaus, then you won't know with any certainty what deal the UK strikes with the EU. And hence you won't know by how much the UK's GDP will shrink by.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Or indeed, whether it will even shrink at all, which is my point.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

why you think the government denied the assessment studies saying they don't exsist then got force to put them out OB there no assessment that says we wont be worse off after brexit and it be a cliff edge if the Brextremists get there way

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Hopefully the UK's economy will still continue growing, just by less than if we had continued to be members is the point economists are making.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Our trade with the EU might decline marginally, but this will be surpassed by our ability to get more trade from the rest of the world, and there will be no further contributions to the EU.

I have faith that the British people can pull this off. The defeatists will be proved wrong before much longer, and this ridiculous negative attitude will be quietly forgotten by those currently promoting all this doom and gloom.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

https://www.ft.com/content/f03e700c-...d-d8b934ff5ffa

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44511829

---------- Post added at 08:00 ---------- Previous post was at 07:53 ----------

You simply don't trust the hard-working British people Old Boy. You choose to disrespect the hard work of our civil servants and consultancies when they analyse how the economy will perform post-Brexit.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Unfortunately, we will be negotiating trade deals from a weakened position, as everyone knows we will need them - even the US has said they will use our position to their advantage.

Rule one of negotiations - don’t let people know you’re desperate for a deal.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

The trouble is Andrew, that it's all guesswork and projections based on 'what if' scenarios. I doubt anyone is 'disrespecting' the work they do, but they've been wrong a few times in the past, which doesn't help the 'man in the streets' perception of their value.

It's like using statistics to prove something, looks good on paper but doesn't reflect real life. . . .

Re: Brexit discussion
 

It's a bit like the weather forecast ,mostly wrong but a good talking point .

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Damn, I wish I'd thought of that :D :D :D

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Quite right, Carth. All these negative forecasts have assumptions built in that may be right, but in my opinion are likely to be wrong. One of the assumptions made by the OBR, for example, is that if that money stops being sent to Brussels it will be spent elsewhere by the government, which means that it makes almost no difference when forecasting future borrowing. That's a pretty big assumption to make, isn't it? Nobody apart from the Government knows what the precise plans are for spending money, so you can take such forecasts with a pinch of salt.

I say again what I have been saying all along - most economic forecasts have been wrong in the past and yet some on this forum think they are gospel!

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I don't disrespect the work the civil servants do. I just happen to think they are wrong on this particular subject.

You seem to be in awe of them, for some reason.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I think guesswork is a little strong. There are certainly projections based on 'what if' scenarios but no matter how rigorous your model, economics is a somewhat chaotic system, hence the error bars that are shown in the studies that never reach the headline figures. This is the same as projections of climate change and weather.

What is important however, is the general trend of the studies. All studies except the Economists for Brexits study predict a lower performance for the UK compared to our local peers. There is no solid figure agreed between the studies on the absolute effect of Brexit as each model is different. However, if they all point in the same direction, it's worth paying some kind of attention to the general trend. Again, this is much like climate change where 90 odd percent of studies agree that there is a predicted upturn in global temperatures but no solid agreement in how much.

A second point to note is that government does pay attention to these studies and drives policy based on these predictions. If these studies are wrong or based on guesswork, should we question to competence of the government?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

But when you start a journey to the Brave New World without a map or compass then not many will bet that you will make it excepting the Faithful of course ..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

When you've lost all faith and hope in the world you live in, a jump into the unknown is a 'nothing to lose' option for those wanting change ;)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Actually, it's mostly right...

The BBC 3 day forecast is around 95% accurate, and the 5 day forecast is around 90% accurate.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

You don't believe the weather experts do you? If we don't want to to rain then that's our democratic right. I will wear a t-shirt and the fact it annoys the liberals only means I win.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

hows the 5 year forecast doing or the 4 year /3 year ......
what your saying is there is no idea beyond the end of the week .

Re: Brexit discussion
 

The whole economy is based on trying to accurately predict the future. The City and the Insurance industries use Actuaries whose job is to assess and manage the future risk & uncertainty.

Are you saying these people, who are I am afraid, "experts" should be ignored because the future has not happened yet? If you do, you had better buy another mattress to put your money under :)

I see no difference between people whose job it is to assess future risk that work in the City and those who work as Civil Servants. If you are saying that because they work in Whitehall they are lying then you had better start ordering those tinfoil hats right away. :)

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People do but countries don't

Interesting: implying a number fail in crossing the road

How can you tell? It is so foggy you can only see a few feet in front of you and you certainly cannot see the other side of the road

also known as "crossing fingers and hoping it will be ok"

When there are was definitively no plan, this is impossible

Checking best made with eyes open. Risks are clear and present

and then you wake up ..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Where have I said I'm in awe of them? I just happen to respect the work of hard-working British economists and civil servants.
When 99% of considered predictions point to one thing, the odds are that they are right. Or as others have said, time to pop to Robert Dyas and purchase your tin hats if you feel otherwise. :D

Re: Brexit discussion
 

5Well, I guess it depends on which forecasts you are comparing. There have been many occasions I have noted where the regional forecast has said the exact opposite of the national forecast for my area. They are both issued by the Met Office!
So provide two different forecasts and compare the reality with whichever one was correct! ��

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You didn't say it, Andrew, but you seem to love quoting them and the economists supporting your arguments as if their forecasts prove your point.

My point is that the forecasts they make a rarely correct. This is largely down to the assumptions made, so if their assumptions are wrong, the projections will be wrong.

And let's not forget that economists and civil servants always tend to take an over-cautious stance.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Your approach is to adopt a view and hold it as matter of faith, even if analysis suggests it is likely to be flawed. Mine is to take a look at all the available evidence and then make a decision based upon that. I take no satisfaction from knowing that yet another independent piece of analysis shows that our economic growth is likely to be less than if we remained in the EU.
As Hugh and others have pointed out before, the forecasts that economists make have a high degree of accuracy and it is wrong and unfair to these hard working professionals to claim otherwise.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I disagree. All the forecasts on what would follow from the Brexit vote to date have been wrong and I have no reason to believe that the current forecasts are correct either. Forecasts about the economy have left a lot to be desired as well.

I do not rationalise things the way you suggest, not by a long chalk. My view is a considered one and I will change it if circumstances start to indicate that I may have misjudged something.

I simply cannot agree that the EU is the be all and end all of everything that some make it out to be. Trade with the EU will not be markedly different after Brexit, and we will have new trade to add to it. Plus we will no longer be forking out vast sums of money for membership of the EU.

Of course, if the Government make a balls up of the negotiations I would have to reassess, but there is no sign of that happening at present, although those with their heads in the mud cannot see any way those negotiations will ever give us what we want. They will be surprised, I believe.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

So what do we do going forward if previous forecasts haven't been 100% (though we do have the slowest growth in Europe apart from Russia since the vote) Shall we wing it, hope for the best?

Nice comparison of different forecasts from the Treasury, IMF, OECD, Economist For Brexit and National Insititute for Economic Research here by the way - https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/brexit-...d-they-perform It's a bit dated as it's from August 2017 but interesting to see the spread

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Funnily enough, that exact point was mentioned in the article I got the previous data from...:D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zg7vcwx

Re: Brexit discussion
 

"Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine." :)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Jon has shown you how accurate the forecasts have actually been so I won’t duplicate his good efforts here in pointing out your confirmation bias.

How much does the economy need to suffer by for you to change your mind? Or is anything acceptable if it means we get to leave the EU. Do we actually have to suffer the loss first or will you accept the British Government’s analysis?

No one on here has said the EU is the be all and end all. People like me have said it’s imperfect but it’s the largest market in the world, it’s on our doorstep and it provides access to the largest number of free trade agreements across the globe. We’ve also pointed out that non-tariff barriers are more important than tariff barriers when it comes to trade with the EU and that services are a key export which are unlikely to be covered by a free trade deal. Both of these factors would penalise the UK even in the case of a free trade deal.

The EU negotiations haven’t been going staggeringly well by any account including the Government's. Indeed, the Foreign Secretary recently called for them to be outsourced to Donald Trump!

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Are you not just ignoring these forecasts from a wide range of sources just because they disagree with your vision of the future and for no other reason than that?

The future has not happened yet, we have not left the EU so how can you dismiss projections on what is yet to come?

Let's be honest here, you just do not like what they are saying so you rationalise them, as many do, as lies. The sad and depressing part is when this charade does play out and the UK is poorer off as a result of Brexit, there will be those who say that "I did not vote to be poorer". You may not be one of them but for many, their personal prosperity is important.

I know. "It will be fine, just have Faith" but the good ship Brexit has hit the iceberg. The lookouts did shout out "Iceberg Ahead!" but those in charge, on the bridge as it were, chose not to listen.

We've hit the iceberg but the ship seems fine. The lights are still on, the message from the bridge is that all is well and the band is playing on, where's the problem? After all, the ship is unsinkable .. I was told this when I boarded so it will be fine, honest. Don't believe the doomsayers, what do they know?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

As you say, how can such analysis be dismissed when we're still in the EU?

The consensus of forecasts from forecasters who have got things right time after time is that the UK will be worse off outside the EU, in all scenarios.

However, that truth is far too inconvenient for those who prefer the comforting steer of the establishment organs the Daily Express, Daily Mail and The Sun instead of looking at the data and working out what it means.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I can see the whole Brexit tower come toppling down next year and not happen

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Forecasts of the Brexit vote were spot on . . . oh hang on :p:

Our estimated probability of a Leave win is 13% and so Remain have an 87% chance of winning.

taken from here (March 2016) https://electionsetc.com/2016/03/14/...it-referendum/

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Lol, I'm talking about those economic forecasters who have been consistently accurate, not some political forecaster who hasn't.

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Can you expand a bit more on this? Why do you think this?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

The thing about probability is sometimes the less likely scenario is what happens.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Which can lead to over 16 million people sulking and chucking their dummies out of the pram , but their all over that now aren't they ?;)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

What some people seem to be forgetting is that they are referring to “parliamentary democracy” AFTER we have left the EU. The Remainers are currently abusing parliamentary democracy by trying to stymie the real piece of democracy - the Referendum.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Let me ask you this: if Parliament, the sovereign entity so much part of the Leave campaign, decides that the deal brought back from Brussels by the Executive, is not in the best interests of the country does it have the right to intervene?