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-   -   Russia has invaded Ukraine (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33710768)

Maggy 23-06-2024 12:02
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36177607)
The facts are accurate. The inference is not. In WW1 we didn’t conscript until 1916, after the initial swell of volunteers pretty much stopped. There were demonstrations against it but enough men accepted it as necessary, if undesirable, for the policy to work.

We conscripted from the outbreak of WW2 but extended it to unmarried women and all men up to 60 in 1941 because ancillary services (civil defence, police, women’s army auxiliary) were getting too few volunteers.

The British armed forces have never wanted to go back to conscription because it always causes training and discipline issues you don’t get in a willing, professional volunteer army. There is no reason to suppose human nature is very much different in Ukraine today.

So, yes, jfman’s words are factually correct. But like a sort of Farage of the Far Left, he is very good at leaving inferences hanging in the air (which he might later deny he made if they prove objectionable). And the inference here is that people being conscripted against their will is evidence that the war does not have popular support, and that the Ukrainian ‘regime’ is unpopular, avoiding democratic accountability and possibly illegitimate.

As others have noted, we faced our own existential struggle between 1939 and 1945. In that time, as well as conscripting people into various forms of national service far more broadly than Ukraine has done, Parliament passed Acts on 2 occasions extending its own life beyond the norm (The Prolongation of Parliament Acts, 1940 and 1942). There is nothing happening in Ukraine that is out of the ordinary for a democratic state facing an existential threat. Unless of course you’ve been captured by that part of Russia’s information operations that has led you to think otherwise. Note, they don’t need you to think Russia is in the right. They just need you to think Ukraine might be in the wrong for your voice to contribute to their wider aim of making support for Ukraine in democratic western states harder to sustain.
:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

Hugh 23-06-2024 12:35
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36177638)
Did we ban sections of the press, intimidate journalists, ban opposition parties and trade unions?

Link to journalist intimidation from that well known Putin mouthpiece “the Guardian”:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-intimidate-us

My view is Zelensky has gone much further, even setting aside 20th century principles being applied in a 21st century war. He’s banned parties that added up to over 2 million votes at the last parliamentary election. Banning trade unions silences the voices of largely working class men who will be sacrificed in this escapade given the levels of corruption that will ensure the political class, their sons and their brothers dodge the draft.

In World War 2 the Chamberlain government collapsed. I doubt there’s any mechanism by which Ukrainian opposition to Zelensky (within his own party or the opposition that haven’t been banned) to do the same. Other than the previous mentioned bullet, of course.

Intimidation of the press in Ukraine

Quote:
Two high-profile cases of harassment have involved other titles. In January, journalists at the investigative site Bihus.info found 30 SBU officers had placed hidden cameras in hotel rooms to covertly record journalists at a New Year party. Some reporters had discussed buying drugs and were taking cannabis and MDMA; the footage was released in a smear video, prompting an outcry that eventually led to the sacking of an SBU chief.

Earlier this month, Yevhen Shulhat, an investigative journalist from Slidstvo.info, who was investigating the purchase of a luxury flat by the wife of an SBU cybersecurity chief, was served with enlistment papers while he was shopping at a supermarket one evening.
Intimidation of the press in Russia…

https://rsf.org/en/country/russia

Quote:
In recent years, in addition to heavy sentences, even torture, used mainly in the regions, the frequent use of fines and short-term detention under various pretexts have been added to the methods employed to intimidate journalists. The media are also under threat of arbitrary inclusion on the list of “foreign agents”, a status that comes with heavy bureaucratic hurdles and legal risks, and the list of “undesirable organisations”, which criminalises any mention of – or cooperation with – the targeted media. Faced with additional risks incurred since the start of the war in Ukraine, many journalists working for independent media outlets have chosen exile. The authorities maintain pressure by “visiting” family members or by convicting them in absentia.

Detained as of today in 2024
36 journalists
6 media workers
https://rsf.org/en/region/europe-central-asia

Quote:
The Russian state (162nd) has pursued its crusade against independent journalism, while more than 1,500 journalists have fled abroad since the invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s two-place rise in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index, due to other countries falling, obscures a fall in its global score as the list of journalists and media branded as “foreign agents” or “undesirable” has lengthened and journalists continue to be jailed arbitrarily. The two rivals for the region’s lowest ranking are Belarus (167th), whose government persecutes journalists on the pretext of combatting “extremism”, and Turkmenistan (175th), whose president has unlimited power and bans all independent reporting.

Countries that have suffered significant falls include Georgia (103rd), which has fallen 26 places. Its ruling party continues to polarise society, cultivates a rapprochement with Moscow and conducts a policy that is increasingly hostile to press freedom. Azerbaijan (164th) has also seen all of its indicators fall, especially its political indicator, after cracking down on the media before its presidential election.

One of the Index’s surprises is the 18-place jump by Ukraine (61st) due to improvements in both its security indicator – fewer journalists killed – and its political one. Although the rule of law has not been enforced over the entire country since the Russian invasion, which has prevented the Ukrainian authorities from guaranteeing press freedom in the occupied territories, political interference in free Ukraine has fallen. This kind of pressure is limited by the fact that the media denounce it.
And the British Government used D Notices frequently during WW2…

jfman 23-06-2024 13:16
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
It would strike me as an extremely low bar if your definition of an acceptable level of freedom of the press under the Zelensky regime was to be roughly similar to, or slightly better than, a country you’d all roundly condemn.

On paper at least the D notice system seems significantly different from the press intimidation reported in the Guardian article I linked to above - where conscription and intimidation by the intelligence community is cited as a method of silencing legitimate journalism. If the UK did that in World War 2 that’d be worthy of condemnation not a defence of Ukraine’s actions.

Comparing practices a century ago to now is once again questionable since technology allows greater availability of international news, satellites and even social media footage allows for greater tracking of troop movements and other resources in a way that simply wasn’t possible for the average person (and also the enemy) in the 1940s. The argument for censorship for security reasons has never been weaker - although I accept it exists the accusation against Ukraine from journalists was this went beyond that in any case.

Hugh 23-06-2024 14:13
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
"Roughly similar to, or slightly better"?

<snigger>

61st vs 162nd out of 180 countries…

Oh, no - you’re definitely not "pro-Russian", are you?

jfman 23-06-2024 15:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36177656)
"Roughly similar to, or slightly better"?

<snigger>

61st vs 162nd out of 180 countries…

Oh, no - you’re definitely not "pro-Russian", are you?
It’s you that made the comparison between the two as if it was some kind of success story, not me.

Pierre 23-06-2024 22:08
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I think a way of looking at this is, and this is pure opinion/observation on my part is this.


There is a lack of fighting age men volunteering, regardless of supposed support in that demographic.

Russia has failed to make any meaningful advances in two years.

The line has been held and has been static for some time.

If it was the U.K. for example, and France invaded the IoW a decade ago, where many residents considered themselves French anyway…and nothing was done.

Then France invaded the New Forest and the South Downs, but it was clear they didn’t have the capacity to advance further, and we didn’t have the capacity to push them back.

Would I want to see my son sacrificed for that, would my wife want her husband and children martyred for that? Would Scotland send their sons down for that?

The current situation is not an existential threat to Ukraine, a negotiated peace is still there to be won. Putin will be dead in a decade or so.

It’s not appeasement.

Damien 23-06-2024 22:15
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36177682)
The current situation is not an existential threat to Ukraine, a negotiated peace is still there to be won. Putin will be dead in a decade or so.
I am not sure you can trust them. Russia will rearm and try again. They don't think of Ukraine as a legitimate state. They also know that any agreement with the West would be tested.

In 5 or so years they'll develop a pretext to move further in and the discussions in the West will be the same as they are now. Do we want to risk Russia using nuclear weapons? Why did we 'provoke' Russia by offering to protect Ukraine? Ukraine has already given up some land for peace in 2024, what's the harm in offering a little bit more?

I think in the near term we might enter a frozen conflict though.

Pierre 23-06-2024 22:25
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36177683)
I am not sure you can trust them. Russia will rearm and try again. They don't think of Ukraine as a legitimate state. They also know that any agreement with the West would be tested.

In 5 or so years they'll develop a pretext to move further in and the discussions in the West will be the same as they are now. Do we want to risk Russia using nuclear weapons? Why did we 'provoke' Russia by offering to protect Ukraine? Ukraine has already given up some land for peace in 2024, what's the harm in offering a little bit more?

I think in the near term we might enter a frozen conflict though.
Well, it’s going nowhere.

Russia can’t advance and Ukraine is going nowhere. There will be no push back and to think they can reclaim pre-2014 borders looks fantasy.


In any event, if it’s a long game to be played, Russia will prevail.

jfman 23-06-2024 22:29
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36177683)
I am not sure you can trust them. Russia will rearm and try again. They don't think of Ukraine as a legitimate state. They also know that any agreement with the West would be tested.

In 5 or so years they'll develop a pretext to move further in and the discussions in the West will be the same as they are now. Do we want to risk Russia using nuclear weapons? Why did we 'provoke' Russia by offering to protect Ukraine? Ukraine has already given up some land for peace in 2024, what's the harm in offering a little bit more?

I think in the near term we might enter a frozen conflict though.
Nuclear weapons are no more likely in a future conflict than they are now. Only today we see US assets and cluster bombs falling on the civilian population of Russia in Crimea. If that’s not a pretext for using nuclear weapons I don’t know what is. The difference between this and America doing it themselves could be split by a cigarette paper. America have invaded two countries on the same basis as a consequence of Saudi funded terrorist operations by Al-Qaeda.

In 5 years or so Ukraine could develop and train a volunteer army. NATO countries could (and should) identify assets that could quickly be transferred, with training of Ukrainians so that this is good to go from day 1. Not F-16s when anyone can be bothered, and not something that can easily be bogged down in a Congressional deadlock.

If Ukrainians are paying in blood for a proxy war this is the least they deserve.

Chris 23-06-2024 22:30
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36177684)
In any event, if it’s a long game to be played, Russia will prevail.
I’m curious to hear your evidential basis for this. I ask because it’s frequently offered as a truism. I’m not sure actual history backs this up.

jfman 23-06-2024 22:37
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36177686)
I’m curious to hear your evidential basis for this. I ask because it’s frequently offered as a truism. I’m not sure actual history backs this up.
America bailing on Afghanistan not enough evidence they’re not a long term ally for their short term partners?

The NATO border can more readily be defended by actual member states should that be required in the “forever war of Russian expansion” that Hugh assures us will happen if Russia didn’t stick to any agreements on a settlement in Ukraine. At some point they’ll just accept the sunk costs and move on. Russia won’t be pushed back to 2022 borders without assistance that won’t come.

These are all reasonable beliefs to hold despite the slurs that will inevitably come my way.

Pierre 23-06-2024 23:27
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36177686)
I’m curious to hear your evidential basis for this. I ask because it’s frequently offered as a truism. I’m not sure actual history backs this up.
Purely on size.

Russia needs no support from 3rd parties. Given time, short time in the great scheme of things, Russia has enough resources and manpower to take on anything.

Ukraine is not blessed with that. Without unwavering support from many countries Ukraine will struggle…….long term.

Chris 24-06-2024 08:38
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36177691)
Purely on size.

Russia needs no support from 3rd parties. Given time, short time in the great scheme of things, Russia has enough resources and manpower to take on anything.

Ukraine is not blessed with that. Without unwavering support from many countries Ukraine will struggle…….long term.
And yet Russia is sending older and older equipment from storage to the front (tanks made in the 1970s and earlier) and buying drones and ammunition from Iran and North Korea because it doesn’t have the resources to replace what it’s using just to remain largely static in Ukraine.

Your argument doesn’t support your conclusion that a negotiated peace on the present lines is Ukraine’s best outcome. On the evidence of what Russia is able to deploy, use and replenish, Ukraine’s best strategy is an attritional one.

jfman 24-06-2024 09:07
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
And without NATO hand me downs and American guided missile attacks Ukraine can deploy… nothing.

The attritional approach relies on a belief the generosity of the West will be unwavering, and that a return to 2022 borders is realistic. If neither of these are achievable it’s just sacrificing Ukrainians to keep Russia further from Poland.

If that’s the objective to which they are resourced then absolutely Ukraine should have a) elections to give a mandate for it and b) a volunteer army.

Does anyone seriously believe America/NATO will resource a return to 2022 borders? If so, I’d love to see the working behind it.

Hugh 24-06-2024 11:35
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
If neither of these are achievable it’s just sacrificing Ukrainians to keep Russia further from Poland.
Strange, I thought it was to stop Russia stealing more of Ukraine’s territory…

And re your previous point

Quote:
the “forever war of Russian expansion” that Hugh assures us will happen if Russia didn’t stick to any agreements on a settlement in Ukraine
I didn’t "assure" anyone if this - I pointed out the facts that in Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine, Russia keeps coming back for more territory, and if we don’t learn from Russia’s previous behaviours, history will repeat itself. Are you stating that if a peace deal happens with Russia keeping the stolen Ukrainian territories, there won’t be a further recurrence of a "Limited Military Action" in the medium-term?

jfman 24-06-2024 12:13
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I’m not particularly a fan of my posts being selectively quoted to remove context. The attritional war that can never succeed without significant and uncertain NATO/US support (significantly more than is currently being offered) isn’t the only way to stop Russia at the current position.

Nobody can predict the future for Ukraine if it took a peace deal at roughly the current position. Whether there would be Russian appetite to continue, at some cost, in the future would be unclear. Putin can’t last forever.

I’ve also already pointed out above how Ukraine’s allies could - if there was political will - leave it better equipped for that eventuality, should it happen. I certainly think it’s much more desirable than sacrificing Ukrainians under the pretence of a return to 2022 borders while resourcing the status quo. Something America cannot commit to longer term - especially with rising tensions in the Middle East. Formalising the status quo, and going back to the drawing board, buys time to strategise.

The contention will no doubt be it also buys Russia time. It may well do, but you’d certainly hope NATO hand me downs would be better than what Russia can muster from North Korea and Iran.

Pierre 24-06-2024 12:36
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36177701)
And yet Russia is sending older and older equipment from storage to the front (tanks made in the 1970s and earlier) and buying drones and ammunition from Iran and North Korea because it doesn’t have the resources to replace what it’s using just to remain largely static in Ukraine.

Your argument doesn’t support your conclusion that a negotiated peace on the present lines is Ukraine’s best outcome. On the evidence of what Russia is able to deploy, use and replenish, Ukraine’s best strategy is an attritional one.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14...-intelligence/

Quote:
But as the war enters its third year, Putin is looking increasingly confident. His main political rival, Alexei Navalny, is dead; vital U.S. military aid to Ukraine is stalled in Congress; and Russia has shifted its economy to a war footing, fueling defense production and economic growth in defiance of international sanctions.
Russia doesn't need nervous or hesitant allies to fund them or re-supply them.

Quote:
“The Russians, according to our understanding, have always fixed their issues or problems through mass. And this has worked out for them throughout history,” said Rosin, adding that reforms to the Russian armed forces were likely to result in a low-tech, Soviet-style army with “a lot of firepower and artillery.”
Russia have the resources, the money and the manpower to re-arm. This current lull suits them perfectly.

As I have said previously, they don't need to advance, they can quite simply hold the territory they have. The front is no longer very mobile, Russian troops will be dug in and will be very difficult to remove and, attritionally, they outnumber Ukraine around 3-1.

Ukraine have done very well by stopping Russia, I don't see how they can push them back.

If they want to fight to the last man, then that's there decision, but fighting to the last man will mean they lose, as Russia has at least 3x as many men.

And if Trump gets in, he will force Ukraine to make a deal.

jfman 24-06-2024 22:30
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Putin mouthpiece The Guardian at it again. Sticking up for Farage of all people.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...leaders-reform

Quote:
The west’s urgent task must be to get Putin off his self-impaled hook, to stop the bombing and killing. Those now mooting a settlement seem to agree that this will involve the partial division of Ukraine along a ceasefire line and some redefinition of its eastern regions.

This cannot be helped by British politicians seeking votes by demanding “total victory” on headline-hunting trips to Kyiv. Nor is it helped by heaping insults on anyone who, like Farage in his other remarks, is clearly arguing for peace.
The game is up.

Tempted to stick neo-realist under my user name.

Hugh 25-06-2024 08:12
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
If "neo-realist’" is agreeing with someone who wanted to give up the Falkland Islands, cut the U.K. Defence Budget to zero because, with the end of the Cold War, there wasn’t a threat from Russia any more, and who claimed that being a white man in the 21st century is the same as being a black man 30 or 40 years ago - go for it…

jfman 25-06-2024 08:50
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36177757)
If "neo-realist’" is agreeing with someone who wanted to give up the Falkland Islands, cut the U.K. Defence Budget to zero because, with the end of the Cold War, there wasn’t a threat from Russia any more, and who claimed that being a white man in the 21st century is the same as being a black man 30 or 40 years ago - go for it…
Not sure the definition in the article is that exhaustive tbh, or that someone’s flawed social views (the white man reference) renders their views all of their views as irrelevant or without merit.

Such an absolutist view would however certainly explain how everyone who even countenances the notion of anything less than 2022 borders, Crimea and Putin at The Hague is a Putin sympathiser.

The definition alluded to in the article merely cites objective facts.

Quote:
In fact, he was merely joining the school of “neo-realists” who have emerged in response to a sequence of inept western interventions in conflicts across the continent of Asia.
Haphazard adventures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya might be good for shareholders of the military industrial complex - a bit like a forever war at the Russia/Ukraine border - it certainly left global security no better off.

Fundamentally the fact the Guardian are printing this at all, at the same time the BBC are encouraging sympathy for the poor reluctant conscripts. This isn’t chance. The 2022 flag wavers are being prepared to be let down gently. The next phase will be promoting the voices of Ukrainian refugees wanting to go home, living in turmoil in the west. Women and children isolated from their family. Puff pieces that tug at the heartstrings.

Those stuck in the Cold War narratives will be apoplectic at the concession to Putin but everyone else will just move on to the next big thing.

Chris 25-06-2024 09:59
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Busy day today so a very brief observation - advocating for Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders (that’s 1991 borders, not 2022, which would exclude Crimea and the Donbas, neither of which are recognised at the UN as anything other than Ukrainian) is about recognising Russia’s belief in its sphere of influence doesn’t go away just because you persuade them to down tools for a few years. And holding that position doesn’t necessitate believing those who don’t share it are Putin apologists, though some doubtless are. There are are, however, plenty holding ‘ceasefire now’ positions who are unaware of just how hard Russian asymmetric ops are working to nurture that view in the western information space. I.e. many of the people who think they are advocating for peace are being played by Russia which doesn’t want peace, but simply enough time to regroup and rearm.

jfman 25-06-2024 11:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Not having the “Russia are playing you” narrative any more than the USA/military industrial complex are playing everyone on the other side.

It serves only to dismiss - out of hand and without evidence - uncomfortable truths and objective reality. I’m sure there’s plenty of disinformation coming from both sides.

Russia seem more than capable of regrouping and rearming inside the conflict (Pierre’s analysis on the numbers is helpful). Ukraine could similarly regroup and rearm. It’s not the zero sum game it is presented as and relies on the assumption that a future conflict is inevitable.

pip08456 27-06-2024 19:54
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
For those pushing for a peace deal it is worth looking at this.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...7&d=1719514289

A peace deal with Russia is possible???

jfman 27-06-2024 20:02
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
What kind of peace do you get in a perpetual state of war? Or worse, if you’re a dead Ukrainian conscript?

Chris 27-06-2024 20:10
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36177914)
What kind of peace do you get in a perpetual state of war?
The reality is, Ukraine has been in a perpetual state of war since Russia invaded the Donbas and then Crimea in 2014. It has simply got rather hotter since 2022.

As for what you get, well where Russia is concerned, it seems what you get is not having your wives and daughters raped and killed the next time Russia conjures up a pretext to have another go. They have form for this. You have to be wilfully blind not to see it.

Quote:
Or worse, if you’re a dead Ukrainian conscript?
I can claim no firsthand understanding of how soldiers rationalise the risk they take, though I note whenever WW2 commemorations come around the survivors frequently talk of fighting not so much for the country but for the man next to you.

jfman 27-06-2024 20:20
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Seems like quite the human sacrifice (plus the ongoing disruption to the lives of millions of refugees) just to, perhaps unnecessarily, align with western objectives and hope one day they’ll suitably arm you to make progress.

Although I recognise this conversation is somewhat circuitous, I can’t really rationalise the 2022 borders plus Crimea ambition that others do in the absence of any political will to support it from their allies. The final months of the conflict are here one way or the other. A few decent graphics and blind hope won’t change that.

If Netanyahu adds Lebanon to the war crimes being committed in Gaza then Zelensky’s begging bowl goes empty.

pip08456 27-06-2024 20:25
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36177914)
What kind of peace do you get in a perpetual state of war? Or worse, if you’re a dead Ukrainian conscript?
What kind of peace do you get if Russia just ignores everything the've agreed to? When do you know you actually have peace.

Do you really trust Russia? What will you think if a large number of North Korean engineers appear in Donbass region?

If a test on reaction of the West and no response, does it mean North Korean troops may appear in the future under the defence agrreement between Russia and NK recently signed?

How much do you trust Russia and Putin?

Chris 27-06-2024 20:25
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36177916)
Seems like quite the human sacrifice (plus the ongoing disruption to the lives of millions of refugees) just to, perhaps unnecessarily, align with western objectives and hope one day they’ll suitably arm you to make progress.

Although I recognise this conversation is somewhat circuitous, I can’t really rationalise the 2022 borders plus Crimea ambition that others do in the absence of any political will to support it from their allies. The final months of the conflict are here one way or the other. A few decent graphics and blind hope won’t change that.
Is Ukraine fighting in order to align itself with Western objectives? Or is it fighting because a neighbouring state has invaded and ravaged its sovereign territory?

The question is rhetorical of course - I’m sure even you are well aware you’re putting the cart before the horse here.

jfman 27-06-2024 20:33
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36177917)
What kind of peace do you get if Russia just ignores everything the've agreed to? When do you know you actually have peace.

Do you really trust Russia? What will you think if a large number of North Korean engineers appear in Donbass region?

If a test on reaction of the West and no response, does it mean North Korean troops may appear in the future under the defence agrreement between Russia and NK recently signed?

How much do you trust Russia and Putin?
I’m not really sure the relevance of my own opinions to any of the questions above. The pertinent questions are Ukrainian capability and Western political will. Both of which are diminishing.

If North Koreans wind up on the front line it won’t really be hugely different from the US assets supporting Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians in Crimea.

pip08456 27-06-2024 20:44
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36177919)
I’m not really sure the relevance of my own opinions to any of the questions above. The pertinent questions are Ukrainian capability and Western political will. Both of which are diminishing.

If North Koreans wind up on the front line it won’t really be hugely different from the US assets supporting Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians in Crimea.
Whoa vatnik name one case of Ukrainian attack on Russian civilians in Crimea!

jfman 27-06-2024 20:51
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36177920)
Whoa vatnik name one case of Ukrainian attack on Russian civilians in Crimea!
Spare me the insults. Civilians have absolutely died in missile attacks on Crimea, American missiles with American logistical support.

If you deny the people living in Crimea, or perhaps all ethnic Russians, civilian status in your own fantasist mind that’s up to you. Whatever helps you sleep at night.

Pierre 27-06-2024 21:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36177915)
The reality is, Ukraine has been in a perpetual state of war since Russia invaded the Donbas and then Crimea in 2014. It has simply got rather hotter since 2022.
so we only get interested when things get a bit
“hotter”.

Maybe if we had done something when things were a bit “cooler”, we wouldn’t be where we are.

We all seemed quite content in letting the Donbas and Crimea go.

---------- Post added at 21:28 ---------- Previous post was at 21:17 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36177920)
Whoa vatnik name one case of Ukrainian attack on Russian civilians in Crimea!
They were certainly a bit careless in Sevastopol a few days ago.

pip08456 27-06-2024 21:35
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36177919)
I’m not really sure the relevance of my own opinions to any of the questions above. The pertinent questions are Ukrainian capability and Western political will. Both of which are diminishing.

If North Koreans wind up on the front line it won’t really be hugely different from the US assets supporting Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians in Crimea.
Sorry vatnik, you're not off the hook. You name one attack on civilians. Just one! by Ukraine and I will be able to name hundreds by Russia.

You think vatnik is an insult, fair enough convince me you're not and I will gladly withdraw it.
Until you find that one example you will remain a vatnik.

Or

You could withdraw this untruthful comment. "US assets supporting Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians in Crimea."

Post evidence or admit you are a vatnik and a liar.

---------- Post added at 21:35 ---------- Previous post was at 21:32 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36177923)
so we only get interested when things get a bit
“hotter”.

Maybe if we had done something when things were a bit “cooler”, we wouldn’t be where we are.

We all seemed quite content in letting the Donbas and Crimea go.

---------- Post added at 21:28 ---------- Previous post was at 21:17 ----------



They were certainly a bit careless in Sevastopol a few days ago.
Why so? Are you referring to the ATACM that was downed by Russian air defence?

BTW the opinion of Russian senator, former ambassador to NATO and former head of the Russian space agency Rogozin.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1719520729

Still think there is any chance of peace with this leftover of the Golden Horde?

Chris 27-06-2024 22:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36177923)
so we only get interested when things get a bit
“hotter”.

Maybe if we had done something when things were a bit “cooler”, we wouldn’t be where we are.

We all seemed quite content in letting the Donbas and Crimea go.
We should have. But we were too interested in deluding ourselves that Russia would stop at Crimea. Anyone who has bothered to listen to what Putin himself says about Russia, its history and its legitimate sphere of influence could have seen that was unlikely. Sadly only the Ukrainians and select other Eastern Europeans were listening, and warning, and we weren’t for listening.

Quote:
They were certainly a bit careless in Sevastopol a few days ago.
The impact pattern in the widely circulated video is not what you get from a cluster munition on impact. I’ve seen far more videos than I’d like, of what they do when they do land and explode as designed. It is widely dispersed and.looks like debris impact, either from a failed interceptor, or pieces of a missile successfully intercepted. The fact that some of the impacts appear to explode suggests it was an intercepted missile.

Crimea is a war zone, its many Russian military installations under regular bombardment for many months. Russian civilians sunbathing in a war zone is odd. I certainly wouldn’t do it. I don’t imagine many of them will in future. Not when they’ve seen their military is willing to conduct missile interceptions right above their sun beds.

Pierre 27-06-2024 23:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36177926)
Why so? Are you referring to the ATACM that was downed by Russian air defence?
I am.

---------- Post added at 23:47 ---------- Previous post was at 23:39 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36177930)
Crimea is a war zone, its many Russian military installations under regular bombardment for many months. Russian civilians sunbathing in a war zone is odd. I certainly wouldn’t do it. .
It certainly is a war zone and Ukraine ordnance, intentionally or not, can kill innocent civilians as much as Russian ordnance.

In regards to the sunbathing civilians:

Were they Russian? Or occupied Ukrainians?

Hugh 28-06-2024 00:14
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36177931)
I am.

---------- Post added at 23:47 ---------- Previous post was at 23:39 ----------



It certainly is a war zone and Ukraine ordnance, intentionally or not, can kill innocent civilians as much as Russian ordnance.

In regards to the sunbathing civilians:

Were they Russian? Or occupied Ukrainians?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ean-beach.html

Quote:
Terrifying new video shows moment panic-stricken Russian tourists run for their lives as 'shrapnel from downed Ukrainian ATACMS missile' falls over crowded Crimean beach

Pierre 28-06-2024 00:31
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36177933)
Struggling to see your point, spell it out to me like I’m 10yrs old.

---------- Post added at 00:31 ---------- Previous post was at 00:25 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36177933)
Where in that story is it confirmed that they are Russian nationals?

I ask again are they Russian nationals living in Crimea? Or occupied Ukrainians?

Is the paper is calling Crimean citizens Russian? …

Chris 28-06-2024 01:13
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36177931)
It certainly is a war zone and Ukraine ordnance, intentionally or not, can kill innocent civilians as much as Russian ordnance.

In regards to the sunbathing civilians:

Were they Russian? Or occupied Ukrainians?
Impossible to say with any certainty, however plenty of images in recent weeks have shown tourist areas generally to be deserted. I suspect the locals, being well aware of what’s really going on, are staying well away. Meanwhile, in Russia, there is much propaganda telling Russians who traditionally like to spend their vacation on the Black Sea coast that Crimea is still lovely at this time of year. So if I were to play the odds I’d say they were Russians.

jfman 28-06-2024 06:08
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36177926)
Sorry vatnik?
I'm not entertaining your nonsense while you open with insults. Everyone else knows what I'm referring to, and it just makes you look childish.

Point away at Russian attacks as you wish. It's irrelevant to the point.

US assets are absolutely supporting Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians in Crimea. If you view North Koreans marching to the front line to put more Ukrainian conscripts in the meat grinder differently that's likely a function of your own delusion at best or outright racism at worst.

pip08456 28-06-2024 13:08
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36177945)
I'm not entertaining your nonsense while you open with insults. Everyone else knows what I'm referring to, and it just makes you look childish.

Point away at Russian attacks as you wish. It's irrelevant to the point.

US assets are absolutely supporting Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians in Crimea. If you view North Koreans marching to the front line to put more Ukrainian conscripts in the meat grinder differently that's likely a function of your own delusion at best or outright racism at worst.
Once again, name one, just one Ukrainian attack on Russian civilians in Crimea.

Until you can I continue to call you a vatnik as you push Kremlin misinfo and repeat thier lies. Should be easy for you to do if as you say it has happened more than once.

jfman 28-06-2024 13:17
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I’m not entertaining your insults or your xenophobic/racist rhetoric. If you don’t consider Russian victims of US enabled Ukrainian attacks as victims, or worthy of civilian status in disputed territory, that says far more about you than me. It also explains your notable absence from condemning Israeli atrocities in Gaza. Wrong type of victim for our pip.

Foreign policy dictated by western exceptionalism (at best, racism at worst) is doomed to failure, hence your blind spot for Ukraine’s inevitable partition.

Paul 28-06-2024 14:25
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Posts removed, thats enough of the playground antics.

jfman 29-06-2024 08:24
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Another day, another Pravda article about Ukrainian men not wanting to fight and corruption within the conscription process.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...e-conscription

Only joking it’s the Guardian. Pjotr better watch himself or he could be off to the meat grinder.

Chris 29-06-2024 10:35
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178047)
Another day, another Pravda article about Ukrainian men not wanting to fight and corruption within the conscription process.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...e-conscription

Only joking it’s the Guardian. Pjotr better watch himself or he could be off to the meat grinder.
It’s curious how frequently you adopt the Russian tactic of accusing Ukraine of doing what in fact it is Russia that is doing. ‘Meat grinder’ is, of course, a far more apt description of the massive casualty rate on the Russian side, which is using human wave tactics to try to soak up Western munitions used by Ukraine. Casualties in excess of half a million and climbing.

But of course you already know all this.

jfman 29-06-2024 10:57
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I’m sure it looks just like a meat grinder whether you are a Russian advancing or a Ukrainian retreating. The article linked, albeit vaguely, alludes to the desperate state of the Ukrainian armed forces.

I remain unconvinced more conscription to take on ever more reluctant “volunteers” is the answer.

jfman 02-07-2024 22:22
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Some Europe wide polling on the Ukraine question published in the Guardian

Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...raine-war-poll

pip08456 02-07-2024 23:08
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178052)
I’m sure it looks just like a meat grinder whether you are a Russian advancing or a Ukrainian retreating. The article linked, albeit vaguely, alludes to the desperate state of the Ukrainian armed forces.

I remain unconvinced more conscription to take on ever more reluctant “volunteers” is the answer.
Quote:
The Russian Ministry of Defense has apparently changed its rules when it comes to the fate of its soldiers injured from the ongoing war in Ukraine.

According to a report by Russian independent media outlet iStories, severely injured or disabled Russian troops are now being sent back to the frontline to fight again.

Medical examiners are reportedly told to still consider injured soldiers with frontline experience for redeployment, regardless of the severity of their wounds.

As a result, the Russian military now has units of “hundreds of disabled soldiers” to be sent back to the war-torn nation despite most of them not having been properly cared for.
source https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/...ers-frontline/

jfman 02-07-2024 23:13
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36178303)
What's your point, caller?

If Ukraine can't make inroads against disabled Russians - the article being over six months old - I'd not be sacrificing any more of Ukraine's best and brightest on it. The political consensus is fragmenting in Europe and there's nobody in charge in the US. Biden, if they don't invoke the 25th amendment to remove him, isn't going to squeeze more out of Congress while the Republican presumptive nominee opposes it.

Chris 03-07-2024 10:15
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178304)
What's your point, caller?

If Ukraine can't make inroads against disabled Russians - the article being over six months old - I'd not be sacrificing any more of Ukraine's best and brightest on it. The political consensus is fragmenting in Europe and there's nobody in charge in the US. Biden, if they don't invoke the 25th amendment to remove him, isn't going to squeeze more out of Congress while the Republican presumptive nominee opposes it.
Can you provide some links to clarify what you mean by ‘the political consensus is fragmenting in Europe’?

jfman 03-07-2024 10:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36178318)
Can you provide some links to clarify what you mean by ‘the political consensus is fragmenting in Europe’?
The Guardian article linked above outlines differing positions across a number of nations both in terms of what is realistically achievable and what they think should happen next.

Hugh 03-07-2024 12:02
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36178318)
Can you provide some links to clarify what you mean by ‘the political consensus is fragmenting in Europe’?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178328)
The Guardian article linked above outlines differing positions across a number of nations both in terms of what is realistically achievable and what they think should happen next.
From the Grauniad article…

Quote:
Inside 14 European countries surveyed, only in Estonia was there a prevailing view (38%) that Ukraine would win the war outright. Nevertheless, majorities in Sweden and Poland wanted Europe to help Ukraine fight until all its territory is regained. Majorities in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria opposed this to the extent that they thought it was a bad idea to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Overall, Italy emerged as the largest major European power least supportive of Ukraine. But in most European countries, large majorities still support sending more arms to Ukraine, even if it is to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating hand.

A middle group of countries, including Czech Republic, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland, lack a national consensus on the war and the EU’s role.
"In most European countries, large majorities still support sending more arms to Ukraine " ≠ "the political consensus is fragmenting in Europe"

Pierre 03-07-2024 12:09
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178345)
From the Grauniad article…

"In most European countries, large majorities still support sending more arms to Ukraine " ≠ "the political consensus is fragmenting in Europe"
you forgot this bit

Quote:
to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating hand.
But according to you, negotiation is appeasement.

so perhaps it should read

"most European countries support appeasement"?

Hugh 03-07-2024 12:57
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I have never said "negotiation is appeasement"…

The only time I have said anything remotely resembling that was in March 2022

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...&postcount=970

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36116224)
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post

I think the crunch point will come if Putin tries to claim the Suwalki Cortidor between Belarus and Kaliningrad*
That would be on the table in any peace negotiation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36116238)
That wouldn’t be peace negotiations, that would be appeasement.

I wonder if it will be insisted that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia leave NATO would also be on the table at any "peace negotiations"?

We never had to use tactical nukes to slow down any Sov invasion through the Fulda Gap because we bankrupted the Soviet Union into submission - it’s no different now, unless we let his blackmail work (by giving up Ukraine first, then the Suwalki Corridor, then Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia).

He won’t stop there, because, why should he? He will have seen his tactics work.

We didn’t let the threat of "Instant Sunshine” stop us in the Cold War, what’s the difference now?

---------- Post added at 09:33 ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 ----------

Mr Ad-Hominem coming to visit again, I see…

Can’t we have a civilised discussion with differing views without personal attacks, please? (general call, not specific to you).

Meanwhile…

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ay-2024-07-03/

Quote:
BRUSSELS, July 3 (Reuters) - NATO allies have agreed to fund military aid for Ukraine with 40 billion euros ($43 billion) next year, two Western European diplomats told Reuters on Wednesday, a week before the alliance's leaders are set to meet in Washington.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg had asked allies to make a multi-year commitment to keep military aid for Kyiv at the same level as that since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, adding up to about 40 billion euros a year.

jfman 03-07-2024 13:19
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178345)
From the Grauniad article…

"In most European countries, large majorities still support sending more arms to Ukraine " ≠ "the political consensus is fragmenting in Europe"
Majorities in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria opposed this to the extent that they thought it was a bad idea to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine.

Seemed like an odd bit to leave out when you selectively chose your sentences to put in bold.

Unless they’re the “wrong type” of Europeans.

The political consensus fragments as alternate minority positions in more places rise of course, and there’s more nuance within those majority positions - as Pierre correctly notes above to strengthen the negotiating hand is significantly different from a return to either 2022 or 2014 borders.

If I meant to say “a majority of people in the majority of countries” I’d have said that - I don’t believe that so I didn’t say it.

Pierre 03-07-2024 13:52
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178352)
I have never said "negotiation is appeasement"…

The only time I have said anything remotely resembling that was in March 2022
Sorry, I suggested a negotiated settlement and you called it appeasement.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...&postcount=827

in any event, you've been consistently against a negotiated peace from the outset.

Hugh 03-07-2024 15:46
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36178355)
Sorry, I suggested a negotiated settlement and you called it appeasement.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...&postcount=827

in any event, you've been consistently against a negotiated peace from the outset.
You suggested a negotiated settlement that would give away land from two NATO members, Poland and Lithuania, to Russia, and I called that appeasement…

Re "against a negotiated peace" - I’m against doing deals with regimes/people who have consistently broken agreements every time they initially invaded a country in the last thirty years - see Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, and who (repeatedly) give speeches stating that they wish to bring back the "Greater Rus", restoring the Soviet Territories to be under Russian rule.

Quote:
When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.

Maya Angelou
What makes you believe Russia/Putin wouldn’t repeat their previous behaviours?



---------- Post added at 15:46 ---------- Previous post was at 15:42 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178353)
Majorities in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria opposed this to the extent that they thought it was a bad idea to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine.

Seemed like an odd bit to leave out when you selectively chose your sentences to put in bold.

Unless they’re the “wrong type” of Europeans.

The political consensus fragments as alternate minority positions in more places rise of course, and there’s more nuance within those majority positions - as Pierre correctly notes above to strengthen the negotiating hand is significantly different from a return to either 2022 or 2014 borders.

If I meant to say “a majority of people in the majority of countries” I’d have said that - I don’t believe that so I didn’t say it.
Three countries citizens, out of fourteen countries surveyed, who think it may be a bad idea to increase the supply of arms to Ukraine (not stop, not lessen, just not increase), is not, by any stretch of the imagination, "political consensus fragmenting in Europe"…

jfman 03-07-2024 16:08
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Yet majorities for the opposite in just two countries were worth calling out.

Fair enough, when it fragments further and they tell Zelensky to get his pen out I’ll remind you of your comprehensive assessment.

Almost all of the figures are deteriorating for Ukraine if you compared it like for like with attitudes in 2022 and 2023. Every other day the media has an article to nudge the average person into thinking it’s a futile exercise.

Pierre 03-07-2024 18:26
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178363)
What makes you believe Russia/Putin wouldn’t repeat their previous behaviours?
Nothing.

But it would stop the fighting.

The US election will be pivotal. If Trump decides to support Ukraine. Putin will have to think whether he wants to carry on for four more years.

If Trump looks to end it, he’ll just threaten to turn off the money tap. Europe can’t finance it on their own.

pip08456 10-07-2024 20:20
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
For our resident vatniks this is what Russians think. Make of it what you will.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1720639120

jfman 10-07-2024 20:34
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I’ll assume since you’ve used that unevidenced slur once more you’re probably aiming at Pierre or myself.

Helpfully, you’ve pointed out it’s a single Russian, so I’ll “make of it” that you are incapable of analysis or critical thought by attributing one lone voice to the entire Russian people. Nobody would claim English people were racist if I found a single racist Englishman.

It’s also helpful that it has his name at the top, unattributed I’d have taken the opening to have been the words of Benjamin Netanyahu. I’ll condemn both - something I bet you cannot bring yourself to do.

pip08456 10-07-2024 21:41
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Anatoly is a well known Russian war blogger and is normally very accurate in what he posts.

I have not made any reference to Pierre.

jfman 11-07-2024 05:07
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36178945)
Anatoly is a well known Russian war blogger and is normally very accurate in what he posts.

I have not made any reference to Pierre.
You're embarrassing yourself here. One war blogger (with 5.9k subscribers in that screenshot) does not make the voice of any nation. It's entirely one opinion - there's nothing to measure against "accuracy".

Somewhat ironic you used that as an example really since you also pick and choose which civilians can be victims on the basis of their ethnicity/nationality you have far more in common with his ethos than I, or anyone else, on this board.

Pierre 12-07-2024 22:16
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Everybody happy to give Ukraine Ł3 Billion a year…..indefinitely?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...r%20has%20said.

Not that Ukraine will get it, most will go to the US military industrial complex, I’m sure our BAe systems will get their cut.

Zelenskyy will trouser his cut. I doubt we’ll receive any audited accounts for how and where he spends it.

No loans, lend lease etc that we had to do during the two world wars that we spent 2-3 generations paying back.

No, seems to be free money.

Hom3r 13-07-2024 21:30
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
If Trump gets in he will withdraw all US support from Ukraine.

jfman 15-07-2024 08:34
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...ssia-offensive

Quote:
Attempts to attract new soldiers have been stymied by widespread reports and rumours online over inadequate training, poor commanders and the reality of gruesome trench fighting. Only 35% of Ukrainian men said they were prepared to serve if called up, one survey in March said.

jfman 20-07-2024 11:55
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Every other day the media has an article to nudge the average person into thinking it’s a futile exercise.
CNN and Zelensky himself getting in on the shift of tone.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/20/e...ntl/index.html

Headline: Facing difficult frontline reality and the prospect of Trump in the White House, Zelensky hints at negotiations with Russia

Chris 20-07-2024 13:46
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
You just keep parroting Kremlin lines old chap. Consistency is reassuring in these difficult times …

jfman 20-07-2024 14:27
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36179392)
You just keep parroting Kremlin lines old chap. Consistency is reassuring in these difficult times …
I’m not sure it’s a Kremlin line to merely point at a CNN headline.

What’s the angle? Why are CNN, presumably engaging in misinformation, acting to facilitate it?

Chris 20-07-2024 16:57
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36179397)
I’m not sure it’s a Kremlin line to merely point at a CNN headline.

What’s the angle? Why are CNN, presumably engaging in misinformation, acting to facilitate it?
What Zelensky has always believed to be the case about negotiations, and continues to believe is the case:

Quote:
Negotiating is not the problem. The problem is, what is the cost?

Ukraine will not accept a proposal where it is forced to pay the cost of a war it did not start, and does not want.

This war is russia's responsibility, and it can end today if russia wants. They can remove their soldiers and go home.

Why do people not talk about that as a realistic solution? The cost would be much lower on russia than it is on Ukraine.

Russia just needs to remove its soldiers and its equipment, and go back home. It's simple.
The video clip is available here: https://x.com/saintjavelin/status/18...56-Kgau3lzowJw

As with all reporting, especially in the US, framing is everything.

jfman 20-07-2024 17:13
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Which brings me full circle.

The headline and story as presented would have been inconceivable 12 months ago. This is not accidental.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Every other day the media has an article to nudge the average person into thinking it’s a futile exercise.

noel43 20-07-2024 18:26
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36179405)
Which brings me full circle.

The headline and story as presented would have been inconceivable 12 months ago. This is not accidental.
We should have sent heavy rocketry to Ukraine from the start.

pip08456 11-08-2024 21:00
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by noel43 (Post 36179407)
We should have sent heavy rocketry to Ukraine from the start.
Yes we should however Ukraine has deleoped its own UAV's that have enabled it to attack several air bases and destroy weapons there.

The recent invasion into the Kursk region has lifted the spirits of the ordinary people in the west of the country and raised the number who wish to volunteer.

How do I know this? Well unlike some of our sofa generals here. I'm actually in Ukraine ATM. Currently in Chernivsti and next week will be in Lviv.

The TCC are still despised as a soviet remnant (rightly so) but battalions themseleves are now also recruiting (eg azov). Watch this space. We don't know what the goal is in what Ukrianes objectives are (in Kursk) and quite right that is for Ukraine to know and no-one else.

Chris 11-08-2024 21:05
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Ukraine is exposing Russia’s inability to police its own borders at the moment. Ironically, the US escalation management policy that has until now restrained Ukraine from making any serious ground assault within Russia has probably helped here - now Ukraine has gone ahead and done it anyway the Russians have been caught flat-footed, apparently believing Ukraine couldn’t, or wouldn’t, venture over the border and not fortifying it adequately.

pip08456 11-08-2024 21:10
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36181226)
Ukraine is exposing Russia’s inability to police its own borders at the moment. Ironically, the US escalation management policy that has until now restrained Ukraine from making any serious ground assault within Russia has probably helped here - now Ukraine has gone ahead and done it anyway the Russians have been caught flat-footed, apparently believing Ukraine couldn’t, or wouldn’t, venture over the border and not fortifying it adequately.
100%

Paul 11-08-2024 23:48
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Nonsense post (and reply) removed.

The Russian spokesperson really took the pee.
Quote:
Foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Kyiv of "intimidating the peaceful population of Russia".
Really ? ... and what have you been doing to the peaceful population of Ukraine for the last 2.5 years ... :dozey:

Pierre 12-08-2024 13:04
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36181226)
Ukraine is exposing Russia’s inability to police its own borders at the moment. Ironically, the US escalation management policy that has until now restrained Ukraine from making any serious ground assault within Russia has probably helped here - now Ukraine has gone ahead and done it anyway the Russians have been caught flat-footed, apparently believing Ukraine couldn’t, or wouldn’t, venture over the border and not fortifying it adequately.
OK, so what’s the plan? They’re not pushing back Russia in the areas Russia has gained.

So they have undertaken this incursion to what end? As a bargaining chip? Can be the only reason as far as I can tell, if they Can they hold what they have taken?

Chris 12-08-2024 13:24
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
There are a number of possible scenarios. If they hold it against the possibility of a Trump win in November, it becomes territory to swap in an enforced peace deal. In the more immediate term it will force Russia to redeploy forces from territory it holds in Ukraine - if nothing else, it is going to bring Russia’s glacial advances in the southeast of the country to a final halt. With Russia on the back foot (there are no significant fortifications, so Ukraine is not attacking entrenched positions) there are opportunities for Ukraine to destroy significant amounts of Russian military potential, both men and equipment. After reading military historians and strategists for more than 2 years now the one thing I know they all agree on is that war is about destroying your enemy’s ability to attack you much more than it is about taking territory.

However, don’t underestimate the significance of the fact that they have gone so far into Russia, and so quickly. There are strategic assets they can reach from where they now are, including railways hubs and possibly even a nuclear power station.

The Ukrainian leadership has been so tight-lipped about this, in truth nobody really knows what the plan is. However, you’ll find some informed speculation if you read Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army general, who has written about it here:

https://open.substack.com/pub/mickry...rational-phase

TheDaddy 12-08-2024 13:27
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36181263)
OK, so what’s the plan? They’re not pushing back Russia in the areas Russia has gained.

So they have undertaken this incursion to what end? As a bargaining chip? Can be the only reason as far as I can tell, if they Can they hold what they have taken?
It could be to ease pressure on other sectors of the front and to make Russia use forces defending the boarder that could be better used from their perspective attacking Ukraine

pip08456 12-08-2024 20:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36181263)
OK, so what’s the plan? They’re not pushing back Russia in the areas Russia has gained.

So they have undertaken this incursion to what end? As a bargaining chip? Can be the only reason as far as I can tell, if they Can they hold what they have taken?
Why are you asking this question? Even the USA don't know what the plan is. Obiously Ukraine had a plan, developed it and executed it. OPSEC was sealed tight and even now no one except Ukraine knows what the goal is.

Really do you expect Ukraine to tell everything they are doing while fighting a war to the world and Russia?

.

Paul 12-08-2024 21:00
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Lets cut out the digs please.

Pierre 12-08-2024 21:31
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36181276)
Why are you asking this question?

Because I’m interested /curious, why do you ask any question, why are you asking this question?

Quote:
Really do you expect Ukraine to tell everything they are doing while fighting a war to the world and Russia?
I was actually asking for the opinions and views from commentators on this site. This is a “discussion forum” is it not?

pip08456 13-08-2024 10:38
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36181279)
Because I’m interested /curious, why do you ask any question, why are you asking this question?



I was actually asking for the opinions and views from commentators on this site. This is a “discussion forum” is it not?
Fair enough Pierre as an armchair General I would say this appears a good move by Ukraine. It has shown the Russian people that Russia cannot protect its borders. In fairness there are no borders only front lines.

Conscripts who have to serve are by law are only requiered to serve in Russian terratory and many of them in the area have and are surrendering to Ukraine forces. Those 18 yr olds don't wan to fight.

So, we do not know what Ukraines objective is. Feel free to speculate.

Chris 13-08-2024 13:21
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
The effect on conscripts and conscript families shouldn't be underestimated. It’s against the law for them to be deployed outside Russia and thus far these young, mostly unwilling men have avoided serious conflict. Now they’re on the front line, surrendering en masse, and Russia’s territorial defence is shown to be a chimera. That’s not to say Ukraine can or should (or even wants to) march on Moscow, but in terms of how Russians conceive of themselves and their government, it has to have an impact.

Hugh 13-08-2024 13:34
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36181263)
OK, so what’s the plan? They’re not pushing back Russia in the areas Russia has gained.

So they have undertaken this incursion to what end? As a bargaining chip? Can be the only reason as far as I can tell, if they Can they hold what they have taken?
https://kyivindependent.com/kursk-in...ussian-troops/

Quote:
Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast aims to prevent Moscow from sending additional reinforcements to the front in Donbas and stop Russian cross-border strikes, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said at a press conference on Aug. 13 attended by a Kyiv Independent reporter.

"Unlike Russia, Ukraine does not seek to seize territory. We want to protect the lives of our people," spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said…

… "I would like to remind you that since the beginning of this summer, Ukraine's Sumy Oblast has been targeted with over 2,000 strikes using multiple launch rocket systems, mortars, drones, 255 guided bombs, and more than a hundred missiles, launched from Kursk Oblast," Tykhyi said.

"Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have sufficient capabilities to carry out long-range strikes with the weapons it has to defend itself against this terror," Tykhyi said.

"Therefore, there is a need to liberate these border areas – with the help of the Ukrainian Armed Forces – from the Russian military contingent that strikes at Ukraine."

The Kursk incursion also helps to prevent Russia from "moving additional units to Donetsk Oblast and complicating (Russian) military logistics," the spokesperson added.

Pierre 13-08-2024 15:21
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Skys defence editor says Ukraine sources will use gains as bargaining chips in peace negotiations

Quote:
Watch: Kursk invasion 'aims to give Kyiv leverage in potential peace negotiations'
Ukraine's move into the Russian territory of Kursk is an "astonishing assault", our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes reports.
According to a source, the shock invasion of Kursk has several goals, including the creation of a buffer zone inside Russia to provide greater protection for communities living in areas like Sumy, which has been under bombardment for the past two and a half years.
Haynes said her source believed the assault could create an "element of trading" which would allow Kyiv to swap territories with Russia if it came to it during potential peace negotiations.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-r...#liveblog-body


Peace negotiations…………fancy that.

Chris 13-08-2024 16:17
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I think that’s a possible reason but not the most likely.

They have to bear in mind that *if* Trump wins in November, military aid from the US could abruptly stop early next year. If that happens and they have to agree a ceasefire with Russia, then their holding of Russian territory is likely to be the only possible way of them getting any of their territory, presently in Russian hands, back.

However, for that gambit to work, they would have to dig in and hold what they’ve taken for at least six months, and then present a plausible threat of holding it indefinitely. That’s a massive investment in resources they probably don’t have and can’t fake.

It is much more likely that their aims are more tactical. The more conscripts who surrender, the more mobiks Russia will have to redeploy from the Donbas. The longer Ukraine is present in Kursk, the more opportunities it has to damage strategic russian assets such as railway infrastructure and maybe, just maybe, a large nuclear power station. Also, the longer they are there, the more the Kremlin’s incompetence will be laid bare.

Sirius 13-08-2024 16:21
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
This is my view on this, Ukraine will push as deep into Russia as they can then consolidate. They can then move there heavy artillery and missile systems in to that area. If this brings them in range of Moscow then Putin will have a major headache on his hands as it brings his war home for all to see. If rumours are true he tended not to force enlist people from Moscow well now they will see what the Ukrainians have been putting up with. BTW straight line of site from Kursk Oblast to Moscow is 360 miles :clap:

Chris 13-08-2024 17:06
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Yes, i think part of this is bringing things into range that weren’t previously - they have already destroyed a ton of ammunition, probably glide bombs, at airfields they couldnt previously reach. I’m not sure they’ll go for Moscow unless they think they can hit military targets reliably though. At present they have the moral high ground but if they start looking like they’re demolishing housing things will get awkward.

1andrew1 16-08-2024 14:27
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Offensive into Russia aimed at drawing Moscow into ‘fair talks’, says Ukraine

Comments by Zelenskiy aide come as Russia accuses western forces of involvement in Kursk incursion

Ukraine’s lightning offensive into several Russian border regions is designed to persuade Moscow to engage in “fair” talks about its war in Ukraine, an aide to Volodymyr Zelenskiy says.

The Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on the Telegram messaging app: “We need to inflict significant tactical defeats on Russia. In the Kursk region, we clearly see how the military tool is objectively used to convince the Russian Federation to enter into a fair negotiation process.”

Both sides were pushing ahead with their offensives on Friday, as Russian forces edged closer to the key city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk and Ukraine appeared to be consolidating its gains in Russia’s Kursk region.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...ffensive-talks

pip08456 16-08-2024 22:12
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36181319)
Yes, i think part of this is bringing things into range that weren’t previously - they have already destroyed a ton of ammunition, probably glide bombs, at airfields they couldnt previously reach. I’m not sure they’ll go for Moscow unless they think they can hit military targets reliably though. At present they have the moral high ground but if they start looking like they’re demolishing housing things will get awkward.
I doubt extending into Kusk region has anything to do with the damage they are doing to airfields and ammo dumps Chris. The development of more longer range drones certainly has. I doubt Moscow is on their list too.

I also ignore anything published by the Guardian.

Pierre 03-09-2024 17:01
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Not a news channel I’m familiar with, but if true, it’s comforting to see the EU continuing to support the a Russian war effort.

https://rmx.news/article/so-much-for...exports-to-eu/

Chris 03-09-2024 17:17
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36182438)
Not a news channel I’m familiar with, but if true, it’s comforting to see the EU continuing to support the a Russian war effort.

https://rmx.news/article/so-much-for...exports-to-eu/
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

This chart shows the change in natural gas imports to the EU. It’s obvious even at a cursory glance that Russian gas supply has shrunk dramatically while the US, which was always a small supplier, is one of several that has increased a little to plug the gap, although the EU’s gas consumption overall has also fallen by quite a bit.

Q2 2024 has the lowest total consumption of any quarter since Q1 2021. Russian and American supply both shrank from Q1 to Q2, but American supply shrank by slightly more.

Notwithstanding Hungary, which is the real Russian Trojan horse within the EU, and given the level of dependency European countries previously had on Russian gas, the picture does not look bad at all.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1725380192

Clickable chart: https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...al-gas-imports

1andrew1 03-09-2024 17:45
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36182438)
Not a news channel I’m familiar with, but if true, it’s comforting to see the EU continuing to support the a Russian war effort.

https://rmx.news/article/so-much-for...exports-to-eu/
Why post pro-Russia propaganda from a site you're unfamiliar with, without checking its accuracy? :confused:

Hugh 03-09-2024 18:22
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36182440)
Why post pro-Russia propaganda from a site you're unfamiliar with, without checking its accuracy? :confused:
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...little-success

Quote:
ReMixNews, a website featuring news and commentary from the V4 countries, published by Budapest-based FWD Affairs LLC. ReMixNews is "funded in part by the Batthany Lajos Foundation in Budapest," according to their website, with a typo in the spelling of the organisation.

Heavy with ads, ReMixNews boasts extensive coverage on migration, the “liberal elite” and “oligarch George Soros”, phases in line with the Hungarian government’s narrative.

Pierre 03-09-2024 18:41
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36182440)
Why post pro-Russia propaganda from a site you're unfamiliar with, without checking its accuracy? :confused:
I like to look at a variance of news outlets.

There’s plenty of people post from BBC/Sky without checking their accuracy.

Mr K 03-09-2024 19:15
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36182445)
I like to look at a variance of news outlets.

There’s plenty of people post from BBC/Sky without checking their accuracy.
Ah, seeking out 'news' you like. You're guaranteed to find it somewhere these days.

Try the Halifax Courier instead. Local news for local people. :)

Pierre 03-09-2024 19:34
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36182448)
Ah, seeking out 'news' you like. You're guaranteed to find it somewhere these days.

Try the Halifax Courier instead. Local news for local people. :)
I didn’t “seek” it, it popped up in one of my Social Media feeds.

The Courier thought …….full of Russian misinformation…….almost as bad as the Telegraph and Argus :)

1andrew1 03-09-2024 21:32
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36182445)
I like to look at a variance of news outlets.

There’s plenty of people post from BBC/Sky without checking their accuracy.
That article is certainly at variance from the truth. :D

What inaccurate stories have people here posted from Sky or the BBC?

Pierre 03-09-2024 22:27
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36182461)
That article is certainly at variance from the truth. :D
Is this

Quote:
From April to June, the European Union bought more than 12.7 billion cubic meters from Russia and 12.3 billion cubic meters from the United States
Not accurate?

---------- Post added at 22:27 ---------- Previous post was at 22:19 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36182439)
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

This chart shows the change in natural gas imports to the EU. It’s obvious even at a cursory glance that Russian gas supply has shrunk dramatically while the US, which was always a small supplier, is one of several that has increased a little to plug the gap, although the EU’s gas consumption overall has also fallen by quite a bit.

Q2 2024 has the lowest total consumption of any quarter since Q1 2021. Russian and American supply both shrank from Q1 to Q2, but American supply shrank by slightly more.

Notwithstanding Hungary, which is the real Russian Trojan horse within the EU, and given the level of dependency European countries previously had on Russian gas, the picture does not look bad at all.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1725380192

Clickable chart: https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...al-gas-imports
I take your point……but why isn’t it zero?

The other sad fact is, that if Ukraine hadn’t blown up Nordstream, Germany would probably still be in the weird position of giving Ukraine tanks but still be buying Russian gas.

You can’t claim to “stand with Ukraine” and at the same time put money in Russian pockets.

Chris 04-09-2024 07:54
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36182464)
Is this



Not accurate?

---------- Post added at 22:27 ---------- Previous post was at 22:19 ----------


I take your point……but why isn’t it zero?

The other sad fact is, that if Ukraine hadn’t blown up Nordstream, Germany would probably still be in the weird position of giving Ukraine tanks but still be buying Russian gas.

You can’t claim to “stand with Ukraine” and at the same time put money in Russian pockets.
Realpolitik - Hungary, for starters, really is a Trojan horse. Viktor Orban is a nasty piece of work who has been trying to stop sanctions and cash aid from the EU to Russia and has been leaned on pretty heavily by the other member states to go as far as he has. He isn’t about to stop using Russian gas and risk harming his own economy in a cause he opposes. Hungary’s deal with Russia gets them 4.5bn cubic metres of gas per year, which is the lion’s share of EU imports from Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...on-2024-06-06/

There will be other critical requirements that have exemptions allowing Russian gas to be used where there are no alternatives. Some private companies are doubtless abusing that and not being as diligent as they could about where their supply comes from.

Re Nordstream, the qui bono question is an interesting one - Ukraine is a knee-jerk response but it would have been enormously risky for them to damage German interests so spectacularly. Russia on the other hand was already using restricted supply (under the guise of ‘maintenance’) to signal a warning to Germany but as a result was having to pay Germany fines for breach of contract. A further clause exempts them from paying penalties for non-supply in the event of critical damage outside of their control. As things stand, they’re not supplying gas and not having to pay for not supplying it.

If it was Ukraine, though, good on them. Germany’s early response to all this was spineless in the extreme, and having put their head in a lion’s mouth by signing up to Nordstream 2 while everyone else was warning them not to was stupid. I wish there was a word for the sense of satisfaction you get from watching it all unravel.


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