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Hom3r 31-10-2021 17:26

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36099446)
So you check EVERY item you purchase to make sure it's not a product of EU. Like say Strawberries and other soft fruit or vegetables? Must take ages to go shopping with you.


Hence, my "where possible", I know not all I buy can be grown in the UK.

Sephiroth 31-10-2021 18:18

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36099446)
So you check EVERY item you purchase to make sure it's not a product of EU. Like say Strawberries and other soft fruit or vegetables? Must take ages to go shopping with you.

Only French - for now. Others may be added to my shit list depending on their position in the current engagement.

Taf 31-10-2021 18:43

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
My (French) wife buys a lot of French produce. Even more than before, as there are no shortages since Brexit.

1andrew1 31-10-2021 20:11

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36099499)
My (French) wife buys a lot of French produce. Even more than before, as there are no shortages since Brexit.

Exactly. Shortages on the shelves are a UK issue, not an EU one.

TheDaddy 31-10-2021 20:11

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36099464)
They sort of left in 1966, they withdrew from the NATO command but still participated in joint operations, they came back into command structure in 2009 and are full members.

Interesting, I never knew they'd returned :tu:

Mad Max 31-10-2021 20:32

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36095394)
I can’t wait to hear how Brexit’s to blame for this.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1633099313

Seems to be an EU problem too..:erm:

---------- Post added at 19:32 ---------- Previous post was at 19:31 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36099501)
Exactly. Shortages on the shelves are a UK issue, not an EU one.

See above.

ianch99 31-10-2021 20:49

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36099503)
Seems to be an EU problem too..:erm:

Didn't you see the actual explanation for this? https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/b...-difficulties/

Caused by a local strike of number of warehouse workers who supply Carrefour.

1andrew1 31-10-2021 22:10

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36099507)
Didn't you see the actual explanation for this? https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/b...-difficulties/

Caused by a local strike of number of warehouse workers who supply Carrefour.

It was over a month ago so I can understand why the explanation may have been forgotten.

---------- Post added at 21:10 ---------- Previous post was at 19:53 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36099464)
They sort of left in 1966, they withdrew from the NATO command but still participated in joint operations, they came back into command structure in 2009 and are full members.

Interesting - there's hope for us still! :)

TheDaddy 02-11-2021 11:23

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36099446)
So you check EVERY item you purchase to make sure it's not a product of EU. Like say Strawberries and other soft fruit or vegetables? Must take ages to go shopping with you.

Does anyone know where I can get some non EU salt and pepper? I've got to season a chicken later and I don't want it tasting to European

spiderplant 02-11-2021 12:09

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36099696)
Does anyone know where I can get some non EU salt and pepper? I've got to season a chicken later and I don't want it tasting to European

Nice Welsh salt here.
https://www.halenmon.com/

And I'm sure you can find some Indian pepper

TheDaddy 02-11-2021 12:19

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36099707)
Nice Welsh salt here.
https://www.halenmon.com/

And I'm sure you can find some Indian pepper

Thanks, much appreciated...

papa smurf 02-11-2021 13:15

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36099696)
Does anyone know where I can get some non EU salt and pepper? I've got to season a chicken later and I don't want it tasting to European

Morrisons
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/15...-brexit-update

nffc 02-11-2021 18:06

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Do they even grow peppercorns in the EU?

BenMcr 02-11-2021 18:17

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nffc (Post 36099756)
Do they even grow peppercorns in the EU?

You can bet if it had said 'non-UK' instead of 'non-EU', that some on social media would have assumed that and still 'cancelled' Morrisons.

nffc 02-11-2021 19:11

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BenMcr (Post 36099761)
You can bet if it had said 'non-UK' instead of 'non-EU', that some on social media would have assumed that and still 'cancelled' Morrisons.

Quite possibly.


I respect their right to a view, but gawd some of the FBPE types are sore losers and actually pretty pig ignorant of what others wanted and what more others took a lot of time and effort to achieve - both in the EU and UK camps.

Chris 02-11-2021 19:35

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
The labelling was prepared in accordance with EU law, ironically enough. That law, which remains our law until next year, specifies the precise form of words Morrison’s used.

Funny how easily some Remainers are triggered though isn’t it. Almost as if they go round looking for things to get offended by.

nffc 02-11-2021 19:44

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36099768)
The labelling was prepared in accordance with EU law, ironically enough. That law, which remains our law until next year, specifies the precise form of words Morrison’s used.

Funny how easily some Remainers are triggered though isn’t it. Almost as if they go round looking for things to get offended by.

Indeed. Tbh, I get offended by them a lot of the time...

1andrew1 02-11-2021 20:07

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BenMcr (Post 36099761)
You can bet if it had said 'non-UK' instead of 'non-EU', that some on social media would have assumed that and still 'cancelled' Morrisons.

It will be updated to non-UK next year when the new laws come into effect. It does seem strangely prominent but I'm no label designer and I'm sure Morrison's know what they're doing on that front.

Carth 02-11-2021 20:16

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Probably just Morrisons taking the piss out of at least one of the ridiculous rules/laws that exist.

1andrew1 02-11-2021 21:45

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Some good news:

Quote:

France backed down in fishing row after Jersey offer ‘to move things forward’

Exclusive: Paris shelved plans to ban UK boats from French ports following last-ditch talks

France backed down on its threats to clog up British trade and ban UK fishers from its ports after Jersey offered to speed up approval for “five or six” new fishing vessels in its waters.

Ian Gorst, Jersey’s minister for external affairs, said the offer from his administration, which was mirrored by the UK government over an undisclosed number of boats, had proven to be a “good way to move things forward”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...george-eustice

OLD BOY 03-11-2021 12:58

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36099784)

Shame we have to get stroppy to bring common sense into the situation where the EU and it’s countries are concerned.

It would have been obvious from the start that the French fishing vessels were excluded by the UK for a justified reason.

1andrew1 03-11-2021 13:11

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36099833)
Shame we have to get stroppy to bring common sense into the situation where the EU and it’s countries are concerned.

It would have been obvious from the start that the French fishing vessels were excluded by the UK for a justified reason.

Is it coincidence that the UK and Jersey granted more fishing licences to the French before they changed their tune? Looks like there's been give and take on both sides which is positive.

Chris 03-11-2021 13:15

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36099834)
Is it coincidence that the UK and Jersey granted more fishing licences to the French before they changed their tune? Looks like there's been give and take on both sides which is positive.

My reading of it is that the European Commission is unwilling to back France’s gung-ho strategy, which is based on electioneering rather than treaty provisions. France therefore needed an ‘out’ having gone out on a limb with its threats, and Jersey has given it one by agreeing to expedite about half a dozen cases that have a chunk of admin attached to them but aren’t necessarily controversial in themselves.

papa smurf 03-11-2021 13:28

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36099834)
Is it coincidence that the UK and Jersey granted more fishing licences to the French before they changed their tune? Looks like there's been give and take on both sides which is positive.

It would be unlawful to issue licences without proof of prior fishing in uk/jersey waters

Sephiroth 03-11-2021 14:33

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
I'm curious as to which court would have been involved with the UK's threatened legal action - which may yet happen.

1andrew1 03-11-2021 14:42

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36099853)
I'm curious as to which court would have been involved with the UK's threatened legal action - which may yet happen.

Article 16 is not really court action though, it's just a device to convene talks (assuming this is what you're referencing).

TheDaddy 03-11-2021 17:36

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Remember when we were told our standards would improve and taking back control would lead to more accountability? Where's that now as Owen Patterson is basically let off for his egregious breaking of the lobbying rules, I've said it before but the levels of corruption are shameful and more akin to a third world junta than the mother of all Parliaments, most of the current incumbents of which aren't fit to clean the chamber, let alone make decisions for the rest of us in it

Taf 03-11-2021 18:14

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
My SIL in France has been told by her neighbour that her son is leaving the fishing industry as the boat he worked on has been sold. Due to a lack of licences to fish UK/Channel Island waters.

1andrew1 03-11-2021 18:20

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36099869)
Remember when we were told our standards would improve and taking back control would lead to more accountability? Where's that now as Owen Patterson is basically let off for his egregious breaking of the lobbying rules, I've said it before but the levels of corruption are shameful and more akin to a third world junta than the mother of all Parliaments, most of the current incumbents of which aren't fit to clean the chamber, let alone make decisions for the rest of us in it

I'm sure this would have happened even if we were EU members but it makes it harder for us to hold other nations to account with such lax standards ourselves.

We know the cost of Brexit - a 4% reduction in GDP according to the Government's own figures. It's disappointing that our governance standards are decreasing as well.

1andrew1 05-11-2021 20:19

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
"We are dealing with ideologues. You cannot reason with them."

Disappointing that agreement has not been reached and yet more pressure on Johnson.

Quote:

EU warns UK on Northern Ireland protocol after inconclusive talks

Speaking in Brussels after hours of inconclusive talks on Friday with UK Brexit minister Lord David Frost, the EU’s Brexit negotiator Maros Sefcovic told reporters: “Let there be no doubt that triggering Article 16 — to seek the renegotiation of the protocol — would have serious consequences.

“Serious for Northern Ireland, as it would lead to instability and unpredictability. And serious also for EU-UK relations in general, as it would mean a rejection of EU efforts to find a consensual solution to the implementation of the protocol.”..

The EU said its reforms would cut customs checks by half and health checks by 80 per cent on British products clearly destined for Northern Ireland. But UK officials have said this does not go far enough...

After the inconclusive talks on Friday, Sefcovic said: “We have seen no move at all from the UK side. I find this disappointing and once again, I urge the UK government to engage with us sincerely.”..

While some advocated targeted action, such as slowing cross-Channel trade with more intensive customs and health checks, others favour the more dramatic move of ending the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which permits tariff and quota-free goods trade between the EU and UK...

The UK would then have a year to decide whether to stick with the protocol and the TCA, or trade on World Trade Organization terms...

“If the TCA [termination] is triggered it would be 12 months before it takes effect. You start a new clock with a new deadline,” said one EU diplomat. “The member states don’t think this negotiation is going anywhere. We are dealing with ideologues. You cannot reason with them.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e028f050-...a-48ed90b8671f

Chris 05-11-2021 22:51

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100237)
"We are dealing with ideologues. You cannot reason with them."

Disappointing that agreement has not been reached and yet more pressure on Johnson.


https://www.ft.com/content/e028f050-...a-48ed90b8671f

If the cap fits …

There is an equally idealogical commitment to the European project within the Commission - after all it was their reckless idea to hitch the Northern Ireland peace process to the entire treaty bandwagon in the first place, and their insistence on nonsensical provisions about the movement of refrigerated meats within the territory of a sovereign country that has got us where we are.

They are using strong words right now, but they have good reason to be uttering dark threats. If the UK invokes Article 16, it will have taken a legal measure within the provisions of the treaty which the EC will have no option but to challenge legally … and that process could take quite some time to see through. It’s all very well them complaining about Lord Frost et al being idealogues, but what’s really eating them up is the fact that triggering Art.16 might just give the UK as much breathing space as it needs. The EU will either have to fight it out, and lose all control over its precious market controls in the meantime, or else come to terms in order to salvage something.

They really don’t want the UK to trigger Art.16, while I suspect the UK really does. All else is theatrics.

1andrew1 05-11-2021 23:06

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36100244)
They really don’t want the UK to trigger Art.16, while I suspect the UK really does. All else is theatrics.

Post 2926 refers. Although Brexiters may sometimes get triggered by the prospect of triggering Article 16, it just means the EU and UK have to discuss safeguarding measures for the NI protocol.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=2926

Sephiroth 05-11-2021 23:29

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100246)
Post 2926 refers. Although Brexiters may sometimes get triggered by the prospect of triggering Article 16, it just means the EU and UK have to discuss safeguarding measures for the NI protocol.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=2926

Is that right? The EU stuck the NI Protocol onto the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) which TM negotiated (bar the 4 year clause). The EU wouldn't discuss trade unless we completed the WA stage. So Boris was lumbered with that.

Sensible Tories always said that NI peace did not need the NI Protocol, which is a stitch-up to eventually detach NI from the UK and in the meantime make it as difficult as possible for NI to function constitutionally within the UK.

"Safeguarding measures" just don't cut it. The UK wants the NI Protocol to be renegotiated to remove the ECJ from marking its own homework. Additionally, the UK wants all customs formalities removed from trade between GB and NI because it just isn't working right now. The EU has offered to halve the customs paperwork which, I simply understand, is from 80 pages to 40 per consignment!

Pierre has the psychology exactly right.

1andrew1 05-11-2021 23:48

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36100247)
Is that right? The EU stuck the NI Protocol onto the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) which TM negotiated (bar the 4 year clause). The EU wouldn't discuss trade unless we completed the WA stage. So Boris was lumbered with that.

Sensible Tories always said that NI peace did not need the NI Protocol, which is a stitch-up to eventually detach NI from the UK and in the meantime make it as difficult as possible for NI to function constitutionally within the UK.

"Safeguarding measures" just don't cut it. The UK wants the NI Protocol to be renegotiated to remove the ECJ from marking its own homework. Additionally, the UK wants all customs formalities removed from trade between GB and NI because it just isn't working right now. The EU has offered to halve the customs paperwork which, I simply understand, is from 80 pages to 40 per consignment!

Pierre has the psychology exactly right.

I'm afraid I'm not party to Pierre's views on the psychology at play here.

We held all the cards for the easiest trade deal ever, so I'm surprised at the need to renegotiate a fantastic deal.

Johnson should have learnt from the Paterson scandal that trying to change the rules during the game rarely works.

Marking your own homework neatly describes what he wanted to do in Parliament by appointing a new standards committee dominated by the governing party. The Single Market is overseen by the ECJ and that's why it is involved in Northern Ireland. That link cannot be broken simply because the right wing of the Conservative Party have an ideological aversion to it.

Here's some information on Article 16.
Quote:

Article 16 ain’t no weapon – it is a remedial tool.

It really is not something to ‘threaten’.

*

In summary: invoking article 16 is not to be done casually or by mere oversight.

There are many substantive and procedural conditions to be fulfilled before it can be invoked.

And unless those conditions are met, then article 16 measures are not available.

Even when all the conditions are met, the scheme of the article and the annex is that there would be a collaborative review-and-consultation to the use of the measures.

All this is – or should be – obvious from the title of the article: ‘Safeguards’.

And not Reprisals.
https://davidallengreen.com/2021/09/...ng-to-trigger/

Sephiroth 06-11-2021 01:03

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100248)
I'm afraid I'm not party to Pierre's views on the psychology at play here.

We held all the cards for the easiest trade deal ever, so I'm surprised at the need to renegotiate a fantastic deal.

Johnson should have learnt from the Paterson scandal that trying to change the rules during the game rarely works.

Marking your own homework neatly describes what he wanted to do in Parliament by appointing a new standards committee dominated by the governing party. The Single Market is overseen by the ECJ and that's why it is involved in Northern Ireland. That link cannot be broken simply because the right wing of the Conservative Party have an ideological aversion to it.

<SNIP>

The conflation of the Paterson business with Brexit is of no value. If you're criticising Boris, then fine. But as this part of the topic is about what Pierre has postulated and particularly in respect of Article 16 then the UK government is doing the right thing to try to get out of the NI Protocol given the instability it is causing.



Chris 06-11-2021 01:09

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100248)
I'm afraid I'm not party to Pierre's views on the psychology at play here.

We held all the cards for the easiest trade deal ever, so I'm surprised at the need to renegotiate a fantastic deal.

Johnson should have learnt from the Paterson scandal that trying to change the rules during the game rarely works.

Marking your own homework neatly describes what he wanted to do in Parliament by appointing a new standards committee dominated by the governing party. The Single Market is overseen by the ECJ and that's why it is involved in Northern Ireland. That link cannot be broken simply because the right wing of the Conservative Party have an ideological aversion to it.

Here's some information on Article 16.

https://davidallengreen.com/2021/09/...ng-to-trigger/

I think you’re missing the point. Nobody is floating Art.16 as “reprisals”, except, possibly, the EC, which has its own reasons for casting the UK position in those terms. Plus other assorted sympathisers with an interest in presenting a strawman as an alternative to the UK’s actual position.

The point about Art.16 is it is a way of suspending most, if not all, of the irksome rules the UK wants rid of *while that collaborative review takes place*. And if the UK’s use of Art.16 is questioned as procedurally unsound, its invocation continues to apply while that undergoes legal challenge. Either way, invocation sweeps aside lots of rules interfering with the UK internal market, for quite possibly an extended period of time.

Those opposed to the UK’s position are by now so entrenched in their “gunboat diplomacy” narrative they can’t but assume Art.16 is HMG’s endgame, or perhaps just a defiant, jingoistic broadside from HMS Victory. It isn’t. When it is invoked -as it almost certainly will be - the EC will lose much of the regulation over goods that it has been trying to hold on to, for quite possibly a long while. Will they tolerate that while pursuing legal challenges or collaborative processes? Or will they suddenly improve their offer for fear of the new reality on the ground (or rather, in the Irish Sea) becoming the de facto settlement?

1andrew1 06-11-2021 21:36

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36100255)
The conflation of the Paterson business with Brexit is of no value. If you're criticising Boris, then fine. But as this part of the topic is about what Pierre has postulated and particularly in respect of Article 16 then the UK government is doing the right thing to try to get out of the NI Protocol given the instability it is causing.

Major made the same point today when he said Johnson's government was behaving in unconservative behaviour and behaved in ways that were possibly politically corrupt.

For the record, I don't think everything Johnson touches turns to lead. I think he's done a good a job as any UK politician could do at COP 26, that kind of event is a good match for his skillset.

Pierre 06-11-2021 22:05

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100308)
Major made the same point today when he said Johnson's government was behaving in unconservative behaviour and behaved in ways that were possibly politically corrupt.

For the record, I don't think everything Johnson touches turns to lead. I think he's done a good a job as any UK politician could do at COP 26, that kind of event is a good match for his skillset.

I can’t believe that, Major being such a supporter of Brexit and the current government, how can he say these things?

Mad Max 06-11-2021 22:07

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36100311)
I can’t believe that, Major being such a supporter of Brexit and the current government, how can he say these things?

Mealy mouthed

daveeb 06-11-2021 22:15

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36100311)
I can’t believe that, Major being such a supporter of Brexit and the current government, how can he say these things?

He wasn't talking about Brexit. Maybe he just doesn't like the way populist governments operate, and who can blame him.

1andrew1 06-11-2021 22:21

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36100311)
I can’t believe that, Major being such a supporter of Brexit and the current government, how can he say these things?

Highy usual for Major to intervene in such a way.

nffc 06-11-2021 23:17

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Major has never liked Johnson and tried to veto his selections as an MP in the early days.


Let's not bear a grudge eh?

---------- Post added at 22:17 ---------- Previous post was at 22:15 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36100311)
I can’t believe that, Major being such a supporter of Brexit and the current government, how can he say these things?

John Major wasn't a Eurosceptic, at least not in the years he was in power.

TheDaddy 07-11-2021 15:49

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by daveeb (Post 36100313)
He wasn't talking about Brexit. Maybe he just doesn't like the way populist governments operate, and who can blame him.

All roads lead to brexit, bozo and his chums believe "delivering" it has given them a get out of jail free card for pretty much anything, our trade losses are 178 times greater than our gains and no one bats an eyelid, we are now exporting beef and pork carcasses to Holland and Ireland because we have no butchers or meat processors here, adds £1500 per trailer to the costs and adds a load of paperwork both of which we were told were going to be slashed and no one says a word let alone attempts to hold anyone accountable

daveeb 07-11-2021 17:11

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36100349)
All roads lead to brexit, bozo and his chums believe "delivering" it has given them a get out of jail free card for pretty much anything, our trade losses are 178 times greater than our gains and no one bats an eyelid, we are now exporting beef and pork carcasses to Holland and Ireland because we have no butchers or meat processors here, adds £1500 per trailer to the costs and adds a load of paperwork both of which we were told were going to be slashed and no one says a word let alone attempts to hold anyone accountable

But just think, in 50 years or so everything may come good if man of the people Rees Mogg is correct. Something to celebrate :o:

jonbxx 08-11-2021 09:47

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
We were discussing this weekend if there was a trade war, what would hurt the UK most? I think from a political point of view, big fat tariffs on cars would do the trick. For my business, it would be data equivalency. Not being able to handle personally identifiable data of EU citizens would shut down most of our customer service/orders department which is based in the UK in a shot. We would need to fly customer service reps out and house them in the EU for order processing. That's nearly 100 people, leaving only a few who would handle UK and non-EEA orders. Yikes!

BenMcr 08-11-2021 10:04

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36100311)
I can’t believe that, Major being such a supporter of Brexit and the current government, how can he say these things?

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveeb (Post 36100313)
He wasn't talking about Brexit. Maybe he just doesn't like the way populist governments operate, and who can blame him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nffc (Post 36100315)
Major has never liked Johnson and tried to veto his selections as an MP in the early days.


Let's not bear a grudge eh?

---------- Post added at 22:17 ---------- Previous post was at 22:15 ----------


John Major wasn't a Eurosceptic, at least not in the years he was in power.

Originally he was for a referendum but against leaving. He's then called out the issues after the vote that he feels are damaging to the UK

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ver-leaving-eu

Quote:

Sir John Major has said it is wrong to flirt with leaving the European Union at a time when the world is coming together.

The former prime minister’s remarks might be taken as a warning to David Cameron not to push too hard the threat to leave the EU when he attends a two-day summit in Brussels at which Britain will press its renegotiated terms for staying in the bloc.

But Major said he was not giving advice to Cameron and thought it was right to hold a referendum to clear the air and “end this long-running and tiresome debate”.

Sephiroth 08-11-2021 10:12

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36100401)
We were discussing this weekend if there was a trade war, what would hurt the UK most? I think from a political point of view, big fat tariffs on cars would do the trick. For my business, it would be data equivalency. Not being able to handle personally identifiable data of EU citizens would shut down most of our customer service/orders department which is based in the UK in a shot. We would need to fly customer service reps out and house them in the EU for order processing. That's nearly 100 people, leaving only a few who would handle UK and non-EEA orders. Yikes!

Not wishing to contradict Jon (in other words his assessment is correct), this is the crunch point. Are we to be subject to EU rules, whims and policies or not?

Is the undoing of 45 years of business integration with the EU too important to jeopardise? How tough a time are we in for while we adjust? I side with the sovereignty argument and we should have planned from day 1 of Brexit for a clean break and made plans accordingly.

I blame the mess we are in on Mrs. May because we were effectively screwed when we agreed to their negotiation sequencing. Now Boris, a total buffoon, has to find a way out that doesn’t destroy our economy. Realistically, NI is sacrificeable in these circumstances.




nffc 08-11-2021 10:39

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BenMcr (Post 36100403)
Originally he was for a referendum but against leaving. He's then called out the issues after the vote that he feels are damaging to the UK

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ver-leaving-eu

To be fair I think that a fair few people who initially voted to remain would be in favour of leaving after seeing how the EU behaved in negotiations etc. But then, on the other hand, you'd probably see a fair few the other way round wanting to remain after seeing what a mess leaving is looking like...


The issue with the tories is that a lot of high profile MPs or former MPs were fundamentally in favour of leaving where a lot of them also were in favour of remaining, the split has been going on for years (and probably didn't help Major's government either) which is why they had difficulty going through the WA until May quit. When Labour basically vote with the whip it does make the job harder.



I think also some people are expecting results overnight whereas we lose access to the single market and what the EU can get us (and vice versa) and then have to do this for ourselves, we have the trade deal with the EU, and other countries, but these take time to work on - like presumably the EU's deals did initially. It's going to take a few years to sort out.

1andrew1 08-11-2021 10:56

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36100404)
Not wishing to contradict Jon (in other words his assessment is correct), this is the crunch point. Are we to be subject to EU rules, whims and policies or not?

Is the undoing of 45 years of business integration with the EU too important to jeopardise? How tough a time are we in for while we adjust? I side with the sovereignty argument and we should have planned from day 1 of Brexit for a clean break and made plans accordingly.

I blame the mess we are in on Mrs. May because we were effectively screwed when we agreed to their negotiation sequencing. Now Boris, a total buffoon, has to find a way out that doesn’t destroy our economy. Realistically, NI is sacrificeable in these circumstances.

Can you define what you mean by sacrificing NI. Sacrificing it to the Single Market and accepting a sea border? Or something more drastic?

---------- Post added at 09:56 ---------- Previous post was at 09:40 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36100401)
We were discussing this weekend if there was a trade war, what would hurt the UK most? I think from a political point of view, big fat tariffs on cars would do the trick. For my business, it would be data equivalency. Not being able to handle personally identifiable data of EU citizens would shut down most of our customer service/orders department which is based in the UK in a shot. We would need to fly customer service reps out and house them in the EU for order processing. That's nearly 100 people, leaving only a few who would handle UK and non-EEA orders. Yikes!

Crikey! I can see this being built into companies' risk assessments when considering investing in the UK now, which is not a good thing.

I think whilst the unelected Frost may be a bit of an ideologist, Johnson is elected, and more of a realist and wouldn't want to risk such an outcome. That assumes he is aware of outcomes like this and doesn't choose to call it Project Fear or blame business for not preparing for it.

jonbxx 08-11-2021 12:07

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100410)
Crikey! I can see this being built into companies' risk assessments when considering investing in the UK now, which is not a good thing.

Yeah, I am trying to find out where all of our customer data is currently held. This would be for our ordering system and sales and marketing system. If the data is held in the EU, then it would be a big problem as we would just need to shift people who have access to the data abroad. If the data is held in the UK, then this would be a VERY big problem as we would need to shift the data AND the people.

I look after the UK and one EU country. Most of my work is that EU country, reflected the relative size of the industries there. Not quite sure how that would be managed.

That said, all hypothetical worst case stuff for a bit of an exercise...

Sephiroth 08-11-2021 12:38

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100410)
Can you define what you mean by sacrificing NI. Sacrificing it to the Single Market and accepting a sea border? Or something more drastic?

---------- Post added at 09:56 ---------- Previous post was at 09:40 ----------


Need I define that? If NI was left to the EU, they won't be in any difficulty. Whereas ....

1andrew1 08-11-2021 12:50

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36100420)
Need I define that? If NI was left to the EU, they won't be in any difficulty. Whereas ....

I tend to live life by the saying, "if you assume, you make an ass out of you and me" hence I clarified. ;)

That's quite a big sacrifice.

Carth 08-11-2021 13:05

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
If N.I. decided to split from the UK and become part of the EU, would we still have these arguments about sea borders etc?

1andrew1 08-11-2021 13:20

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36100424)
If N.I. decided to split from the UK and become part of the EU, would we still have these arguments about sea borders etc?

They would be treated like the rest of the EU so there would be more checks than now which the Unionists would not like.

nffc 08-11-2021 14:11

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
The issue is basically you have two factions in NI, One wants it united with the UK, one with the ROI, this has been an issue kept under wraps for ages, and is the issue here again...

1andrew1 08-11-2021 14:19

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nffc (Post 36100428)
The issue is basically you have two factions in NI, One wants it united with the UK, one with the ROI, this has been an issue kept under wraps for ages, and is the issue here again...

Yes, the easiest solution is to have the UK and Ireland both in the European Single Market and Customs Zone or both out of it. Complications start when the two countries go in different directions as they are doing now.

It's understandable that some have an issue with ECJ having jurisdiction over some trade aspects in NI but that's a requirement of being part of the European Single Market and one which we signed up to. There is no perfect solution here and I suspect most people would forgo pure sovereignty to keep peace in Northern Ireland.

Frost and pals being triggered by three initials in a deal he negotiated won't change this. Perhaps there can be a way to develop a disputes mechanism so that the ECJ is there in the last resort, but it will take a better relationship with the EU than we have at present to make this a reality.

Sephiroth 08-11-2021 14:21

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nffc (Post 36100428)
The issue is basically you have two factions in NI, One wants it united with the UK, one with the ROI, this has been an issue kept under wraps for ages, and is the issue here again...

... someone who understands the point I was making

Hugh 10-11-2021 11:40

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/conservati...1nc71h9qHpXvyk

Quote:

A Conservative peer has called on the government to introduce special immigration rules to fix a shortage of au pairs.

Baroness Hodgson of Abinger told the House of Lords that Brexit had meant there was no visa route to bring au pairs to the UK.

Speaking in the House of Lords on Monday, she said the lack of au pairs would affect "hard-working families".

jfman 10-11-2021 11:49

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
“Hard working families”

papa smurf 10-11-2021 11:51

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36100644)
“Hard working families”

yup - the ones who let foreigners do all the child care and housework ;)

1andrew1 10-11-2021 12:32

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36100645)
yup - the ones who let foreigners do all the child care and housework ;)

Why can't they send their children to a boarding school like Wycombe Abbey or Eton like any normal parent does? :D

Carth 10-11-2021 13:38

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100649)
Why can't they send their children to a boarding school like Wycombe Abbey or Eton like any normal parent does? :D

Not enough tutors, they're all training as au pairs :D


anyway, it's only 6 weeks ago that the media were screaming about food shortages and HGV driver shortages . . with all the hysteria that surrounded it.

Seems that M&S at least had no worries as their quarterly (13 weeks) profits are up . . thanks to food sales apparently :D

M&S sales surge as food helps Covid bounce back

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59231186

OLD BOY 10-11-2021 14:06

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100429)
Yes, the easiest solution is to have the UK and Ireland both in the European Single Market and Customs Zone or both out of it. Complications start when the two countries go in different directions as they are doing now.

It's understandable that some have an issue with ECJ having jurisdiction over some trade aspects in NI but that's a requirement of being part of the European Single Market and one which we signed up to. There is no perfect solution here and I suspect most people would forgo pure sovereignty to keep peace in Northern Ireland.

Frost and pals being triggered by three initials in a deal he negotiated won't change this. Perhaps there can be a way to develop a disputes mechanism so that the ECJ is there in the last resort, but it will take a better relationship with the EU than we have at present to make this a reality.

The really simple solution is the reunification of Ireland, which cannot be far off as the Catholic population increases ahead of the Protestant population. I’m not sure when the tipping point will come, but if my memory serves me correctly, it’s only a few years away.

In the 2011 census, the Protestants represented 48% of the population as against the Catholics at 45%. Although we can’t assume that all Catholics would vote for unification, most would, and so that time is likely to come fairly soon now.

---------- Post added at 13:06 ---------- Previous post was at 13:04 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36100644)
“Hard working families”

It may have escaped your attention, but most people earning above average salaries are hard working.

You prove nothing by pointing to what a relatively small minority might do.

Carth 10-11-2021 14:08

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Ireland has been a mess for many years, to be honest it's almost as bad as the Israel/Palestine situation. It won't go away . . no matter how much it's talked about.

OLD BOY 10-11-2021 14:14

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36100668)
Ireland has been a mess for many years, to be honest it's almost as bad as the Israel/Palestine situation. It won't go away . . no matter how much it's talked about.

Except that Israel and Palestine will never be able to resolve their differences, certainly in my lifetime, whereas a referendum to join NI with the Republic of Ireland would indeed resolve most of the issues if it resulted in a ‘yes’ vote. Of course, the Protestants would have their noses put out of joint, but they would have to accept the majority decision in the end.

1andrew1 10-11-2021 14:27

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36100669)
Except that Israel and Palestine will never be able to resolve their differences, certainly in my lifetime, whereas a referendum to join NI with the Republic of Ireland would indeed resolve most of the issues if it resulted in a ‘yes’ vote. Of course, the Protestants would have their noses put out of joint, but they would have to accept the majority decision in the end.

Apparently only 30% back reunification per this survey.
https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2020/

Carth 10-11-2021 14:28

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36100669)
Except that Israel and Palestine will never be able to resolve their differences, certainly in my lifetime, whereas a referendum to join NI with the Republic of Ireland would indeed resolve most of the issues if it resulted in a ‘yes’ vote. Of course, the Protestants would have their noses put out of joint, but they would have to accept the majority decision in the end.

Maybe they'd have to accept a referendum decision, but they don't have to like it . . just look at the Brexit crap posted on here.

Those with a violent past/history probably won't settle for just words on the internet either :shocked:

papa smurf 10-11-2021 15:30

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36100669)
Except that Israel and Palestine will never be able to resolve their differences, certainly in my lifetime, whereas a referendum to join NI with the Republic of Ireland would indeed resolve most of the issues if it resulted in a ‘yes’ vote. Of course, the Protestants would have their noses put out of joint, but they would have to accept the majority decision in the end.

Or start a civil war.

1andrew1 10-11-2021 16:13

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
The lesson learnt from the Brexit negotiations and the Paterson affair is that when he's outgunned, Johnson retreats.

The EU will come down heavy on the UK if Lord Frost pushes forward with Article 16 and Johnson will do what he does best - back down and run for the hills. The group of what the Telegraph calls Spartans - has-beens and never-beens - who egg Johnson ever onwards into hard-line positions, will just have to accept reality.

Chris 10-11-2021 16:41

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100689)
The lesson learnt from the Brexit negotiations and the Paterson affair is that when he's outgunned, Johnson retreats.

The EU will come down heavy on the UK if Lord Frost pushes forward with Article 16 and Johnson will do what he does best - back down and run for the hills. The group of what the Telegraph calls Spartans - has-beens and never-beens - who egg Johnson ever onwards into hard-line positions, will just have to accept reality.

That’s some premier league wishful thinking.

1andrew1 10-11-2021 16:57

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36100690)
That’s some premier league wishful thinking.

I hope they do accept reality but I fear you might be right.

jfman 10-11-2021 17:01

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36100666)
It may have escaped your attention, but most people earning above average salaries are hard working.

You prove nothing by pointing to what a relatively small minority might do.

It may have escaped your attention but most people on below average salaries work hard. Which makes the distinction completely pointless other than to be out of touch.

Pay Brits higher wages. That’s what we voted for isn’t it?

Chris 10-11-2021 17:15

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100691)
I hope they do accept reality but I fear you might be right.

I think you’re misreading the situation because you’re misunderstanding their calculus. The Johnson project thrives on the almost unequivocal backing they believe they have from key voters and mid market tabloids to “get Brexit done”. They feel empowered to do whatever it takes.

Johnson backed down over the Paterson affair right enough but it was nothing to do with being outgunned. The move caused outrage, including amongst those newspapers otherwise expected to cheer him on almost regardless. He’s a journalist at heart and the bad opinion of papers he believes to be influential over his key voters really matters to him. That’s what finally cut through last week, and triggered the u-turn even after the commons vote was won.

On the EU issue he still enjoys broad support in all the places that matter to him. In fact, kicking the EU is the thing most likely to improve his general standing amongst those voters and newspapers. On that basis he is now more likely to take a hard line on Art.16, not less. You were nearer the mark when you suggested BoJo is about to “do a Henry V” in the other thread this morning.

1andrew1 10-11-2021 17:35

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36100694)
I think you’re misreading the situation because you’re misunderstanding their calculus. The Johnson project thrives on the almost unequivocal backing they believe they have from key voters and mid market tabloids to “get Brexit done”. They feel empowered to do whatever it takes.

Johnson backed down over the Paterson affair right enough but it was nothing to do with being outgunned. The move caused outrage, including amongst those newspapers otherwise expected to cheer him on almost regardless. He’s a journalist at heart and the bad opinion of papers he believes to be influential over his key voters really matters to him. That’s what finally cut through last week, and triggered the u-turn even after the commons vote was won.

On the EU issue he still enjoys broad support in all the places that matter to him. In fact, kicking the EU is the thing most likely to improve his general standing amongst those voters and newspapers. On that basis he is now more likely to take a hard line on Art.16, not less. You were nearer the mark when you suggested BoJo is about to “do a Henry V” in the other thread this morning.

I think he'll continue to do a Henry V with France, but end up backing down against the EU over NI, before or after triggering Article 16. And let's face it, he's got a willing accomplice in the form of Macron who benefits electorally from such skirmishes as well.

The current corruption allegations may indeed encourage him to trigger Article 16, but reality would make him do what defines this government the most: U-turns. I wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of phone calls from Nissan and Toyota after triggering Article 16.

Hugh 10-11-2021 17:39

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/202...eland-protocol
Quote:

Washington, DC - Today, Representatives Gregory W. Meeks, Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, William R. Keating, Chair of the Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber Subcommittee, Earl Blumenauer, Chair of the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade, and Brendan Boyle, Chair of the European Union Caucus, released the following statement on the United Kingdom’s threats to suspend the Northern Ireland protocol of the EU withdrawal agreement:

“The Northern Ireland Protocol was a significant achievement during the volatile Brexit process, and its full implementation is critical for ensuring Brexit doesn’t undermine decades of progress toward peace on the island of Ireland.

“The Good Friday Agreement and broader peace process took patience and time to build, with good faith contributions from the communities in Northern Ireland, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and others. However, peace can unravel quickly.

“In threatening to invoke Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the United Kingdom threatens to not only destabilize trade relations, but also that hard earned peace. We call on the UK to abandon this dangerous path, and to commit to implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol in full.”
And then..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1955071.html
Quote:

The UK has pulled back from an early suspension of the Brexit deal for Northern Ireland – and a trade war with the EU – arguing further talks can still avert the crisis.
Probably no connection whatsoever...

jonbxx 10-11-2021 17:56

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100699)
I think he'll continue to do a Henry V with France, but end up backing down against the EU over NI, before or after triggering Article 16.

The current corruption allegations may indeed encourage him to trigger Article 16, but reality would make him do what defines this government the most: U-turns. I wouldn't want to on the receiving end of phone calls from Nissan and Toyota after triggering Article 16.

Yeah, I was wondering if Article 16 would be the 'dead cat' to distract from internal matters but, as Hugh said, it looks like a small backing away from that is on the cards. The noises were that the EU would retaliate for invoking Article 16, which is their right under the agreement. This, along with the US message seems to have focused minds a little

TheDaddy 10-11-2021 18:09

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36100694)
I think you’re misreading the situation because you’re misunderstanding their calculus. The Johnson project thrives on the almost unequivocal backing they believe they have from key voters and mid market tabloids to “get Brexit done”. They feel empowered to do whatever it takes.

Johnson backed down over the Paterson affair right enough but it was nothing to do with being outgunned. The move caused outrage, including amongst those newspapers otherwise expected to cheer him on almost regardless. He’s a journalist at heart and the bad opinion of papers he believes to be influential over his key voters really matters to him. That’s what finally cut through last week, and triggered the u-turn even after the commons vote was won.

On the EU issue he still enjoys broad support in all the places that matter to him. In fact, kicking the EU is the thing most likely to improve his general standing amongst those voters and newspapers. On that basis he is now more likely to take a hard line on Art.16, not less. You were nearer the mark when you suggested BoJo is about to “do a Henry V” in the other thread this morning.

That's one way of looking at it and one I used to think about right, in the last couple of months though I've got a bit more conspiratorial, this constant arguing and sabre rattling maskS how badly they've mismanaged pretty much everything and if they can keep causing rifts and trouble by the time it all settles down years down the line or when they're finally booted out of office they can blame the EU for it!!

1andrew1 10-11-2021 18:20

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36100701)

Interesting. ;)

Taf 10-11-2021 21:20

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
How is the EU going to protect its border with Belarus?

Quote:

Belarus's former ambassador to France and Poland claims the migrants (at the Poland-Belarus border) are Afghan and Iraqi war veterans trained by Russian intelligence. Speaking amid the border crisis, one unnamed male said even though the UK is no longer in the EU, Britain was the real target for half of those now trying to flee.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-migrants.html

Chris 12-11-2021 12:50

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36100701)

There probably isn’t. The signs are that HMG is working on a strategy to publicly justify and defend invocation before proceeding. Over at the BBC, Laura K’s money seems to be on Art.16 being invoked some time next month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59256153

jfman 12-11-2021 12:52

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Nothing like a bit of nationalism to distract from problems elsewhere.

Chris 12-11-2021 13:00

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36100882)
Nothing like a bit of nationalism to distract from problems elsewhere.

If that were the case, presumably they’d be doing it now, as some had speculated? I actually thought they would to be honest after the week they’ve had, but possibly they think something will come out of COP this weekend to distract everyone.

The debate over Art.16 on this forum has recently tilted towards whether they will actually do it at all, and particularly this week, whether an open letter from some congress members in America has stopped them. Research and reporting from Kuenssberg at the BBC suggests they do fully intend to proceed, and that Art.16 was the strategy from the outset. It’s just a matter of timing.

jfman 12-11-2021 13:06

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36100885)
If that were the case, presumably they’d be doing it now, as some had speculated? I actually thought they would to be honest after the week they’ve had, but possibly they think something will come out of COP this weekend to distract everyone.

The debate over Art.16 on this forum has recently tilted towards whether they will actually do it at all, and particularly this week, whether an open letter from some congress members in America has stopped them. Research and reporting from Kuenssberg at the BBC suggests they do fully intend to proceed, and that Art.16 was the strategy from the outset. It’s just a matter of timing.

They can use nationalism as a distraction by generating headlines with nationalistic hubris by speculating. This has the obvious benefit of not actually triggering Article 16 or dealing with consequences that would entail.

Four weeks of will they/won’t they will distract from corruption/Covid more effectively than triggering A16 now.

Sephiroth 12-11-2021 16:07

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36100887)
They can use nationalism as a distraction by generating headlines with nationalistic hubris by speculating. This has the obvious benefit of not actually triggering Article 16 or dealing with consequences that would entail.

Four weeks of will they/won’t they will distract from corruption/Covid more effectively than triggering A16 now.

Nah - the sleaze thing will run and run. The killer for the Guvmin is the HoL placements for £3 million and the Randox contract which touches so many Tories. Article 16 will come and go, will dominate for a while, but the media smells blood and the Tories have awoken the sleeping Labour bear.

For months, Starmer has had no purpose for being; now he's in his element and stoke up the more vocal in his caucus.

Great fun to be had, sadly at the expense of that buffoon Boris and the Tories at close quarters to him.


---------- Post added at 15:07 ---------- Previous post was at 15:06 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36100742)
How is the EU going to protect its border with Belarus?



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-migrants.html

I see little difference between Belarus and France in the matter of illegal migrants.

Chris 12-11-2021 16:14

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
I tend to agree. We are only just at the mid-point of this parliament and Boris’ opponents in the party and the Press can tackle this as a leadership issue that - at present - has no necessary consequences for the next general election, which as things stand will not happen until May of 2024.

Had it all blown up at this point in 2023 all but the most rabid anti-Boris Tories might have held their noses and left well alone, for fear of putting Labour into government. That is not a present danger and if Boris is not unseated in the next 6 months (and personally I don’t think he will be) I suspect those who want him gone will be on the lookout for the next opportunity to have him gone by this time next year. That would give his successor a similar run-in to the next election that John Major enjoyed after unseating Margaret Thatcher.

1andrew1 12-11-2021 17:26

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
If Article 16 was invoked, it would run and run. I think the government's sensible enough not to deploy it unless it still buys into the Cummings' play book of putting out one fire with a larger fire.

Chris 12-11-2021 17:39

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100915)
If Article 16 was invoked, it would run and run. I think the government's sensible enough not to deploy it unless it still buys into the Cummings' play book of putting out one fire with a larger fire.

It would, but that’s the whole idea. There has been much talk of “retaliation” from the EU if the UK invokes Art.16 but this misses the fact that any such retaliation can only be within the legal framework set out in the treaty. The EU can’t justify any actions outside of the treaty because in invoking Art.16 the UK isn’t acting outside of the treaty.

The EU can challenge the legality of the invocation - the time-consuming process for which is specified in the treaty - or it can enter into the required arbitration and review process. Again, this process is defined in the treaty and takes time to complete.

As you say, this could be construed as putting out one fire by starting a bigger one, however if this really is the strategy they’ve been following from the outset then it has to be at least possible that there’s a defined objective in mind. My guess is that HMG thinks whatever conditions develop on the ground while the arbitration plays out will become the de facto arrangements for the long term.

jfman 12-11-2021 18:07

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
I like the fact that the presumption that this Government have a plan has been demoted to “at least possible” therefore acknowledging the perhaps more likely possibility that there isn’t one and they are merely leaping from crisis to crisis.

Carth 12-11-2021 18:20

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Why bother having a plan if nobody follows it? ;)

Hugh 12-11-2021 19:19

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
The plan has to be capable of being workable in the first place, otherwise it’s a wish-lust, not a plan…

papa smurf 12-11-2021 21:46

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36100934)
The plan has to be capable of being workable in the first place, otherwise it’s a wish-lust, not a plan…

Easy tiger, cold shower time;)

Hugh 12-11-2021 23:29

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Miaaaooowwwww….

1andrew1 12-11-2021 23:49

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Brexit doesn't seem to be meeting the conventional definition of taking back control of our borders.

Quote:

Brexit has made it easier for small boat crossings to reach UK, refugees say

Outside EU, people can no longer be returned to other European countries under legislation known as Dublin regulation

Refugees living in northern France say Brexit has made it easier for them to reach the UK in small boats, as it emerged that record numbers of people crossed the Channel in one day.

Despite the worsening weather conditions and the UK government’s attempts to deter them, 1,185 people made the crossing on Thursday, according to the Home Office...

Previously, when the UK was part of the EU, under a mechanism known as Dublin the UK could ask other EU countries to take back people they could prove had passed through safe European countries before reaching the UK.

The UK could make “take charge” requests and officials were often able to prove that asylum seekers had passed through other countries thanks to the Eurodac fingerprint database. But since Brexit the UK no longer has access to that database, so it is harder to prove definitively which other European countries small boat arrivals to the UK have previously passed through.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...k-refugees-say

Carth 13-11-2021 00:40

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Start sinking the boats, they'll soon pack in

Hugh 13-11-2021 01:54

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Probably not the best move, as that would be murder…

OLD BOY 13-11-2021 03:42

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36100920)
It would, but that’s the whole idea. There has been much talk of “retaliation” from the EU if the UK invokes Art.16 but this misses the fact that any such retaliation can only be within the legal framework set out in the treaty. The EU can’t justify any actions outside of the treaty because in invoking Art.16 the UK isn’t acting outside of the treaty.

The EU can challenge the legality of the invocation - the time-consuming process for which is specified in the treaty - or it can enter into the required arbitration and review process. Again, this process is defined in the treaty and takes time to complete.

As you say, this could be construed as putting out one fire by starting a bigger one, however if this really is the strategy they’ve been following from the outset then it has to be at least possible that there’s a defined objective in mind. My guess is that HMG thinks whatever conditions develop on the ground while the arbitration plays out will become the de facto arrangements for the long term.

Maybe you have misjudged the power of the ECJ!

---------- Post added at 02:42 ---------- Previous post was at 02:40 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36100965)
Probably not the best move, as that would be murder…

Or maybe collateral damage?

Hugh 13-11-2021 09:42

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
No, not under International Law (or our own Military Regulations) - undertaking acts whose sole purpose is to kill civilians (and if you sink boats and leave people to drown, that’s what you’re doing) would be an Unlawful Order, and would be refused.

It’s no better than machine-gunning civilians who present no threat to your life - just slower.

The sociopathy is strong in this thread…

Chris 13-11-2021 11:10

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36100958)
Brexit doesn't seem to be meeting the conventional definition of taking back control of our borders.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...k-refugees-say

I’m pretty sure you know that the Brexit discussion around border control was to do with EU free movement. It’s in rather poor taste for you to be using a humanitarian crisis to try to keep pushing your agenda.

Carth 13-11-2021 11:31

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36100975)
No, not under International Law (or our own Military Regulations) - undertaking acts whose sole purpose is to kill civilians (and if you sink boats and leave people to drown, that’s what you’re doing) would be an Unlawful Order, and would be refused.

It’s no better than machine-gunning civilians who present no threat to your life - just slower.

The sociopathy is strong in this thread…

The French don't seem to mind letting them climb aboard unsuitable boats (many not even wearing a life jacket) at their end . . is that culpable homicide, assisted suicide or something?

ianch99 13-11-2021 11:36

Re: Britain outside the EU
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36100981)
I’m pretty sure you know that the Brexit discussion around border control was to do with EU free movement. It’s in rather poor taste for you to be using a humanitarian crisis to try to keep pushing your agenda.

<in a Yoda voice>Denial is strong in this one</in a Yoda voice>

Pearl clutching does not become you. The Brexit was all about "controlling our borders" and actively encouraged xenophobia. Andrew's article is right on point and the irony is off the scale.

There is no agenda here, only reality.


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