Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Interesting Tweet from Fabian Zuleeg, Chief Executive & Chief Economist, European Policy Centre
https://twitter.com/FabianZuleeg/sta...94431482560514

I don't see trade deals with the US and China being at all likely at the moment so even less wriggle room for the UK.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Strange he should reference ECHR as that's nothing to do with the EU

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Quite.

Van Rompuy was the first permanently appointed president of the European Council. He served in that role from 2009-2014. Nigel Farage famously told him, “You have the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low grade bank clerk.”

So it’s not a place I’d go looking for impartial observations about the U.K.-EU negotiations. Or on anything to do with the EU for that matter.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

So, trade talks with the US will start next week as the negotiations with Brussels have stalled. At this rate, we will conclude discussions with the States before the EU, which would be an incredible result.

Maybe this will make the EU sit up and take notice at last. Sooner or later, it will dawn on them that we are serious in wanting a trade deal free of the restrictions they are trying to impose on us.

This also shows the naysayers on the forum that negotiations can continue notwithstanding the resources we are throwing into the containment of Covid-19.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I admire your optimism Old Boy. It took from negotiations concluding in 2006 until 2012 for a trade deal between the United States and Panama to come into effect.

There's no evidence for your statement starting "at this rate..." at all.

I'm 100% confident that the UK can "start negotiations" over anything it pleases during Covid-19 given the loosest possible definition would constitute one junior Civil Servant on a Zoom call.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUKKBN22D69H btw, I’m sure this comment in the Sun article will go down well with The Donald...

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Yes, and if Barnier does any more of his clock impressions, he can take a running jump!

---------- Post added at 20:41 ---------- Previous post was at 20:39 ----------

Fat chance.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

We would need to be careful on what we paid but trading stability is something that the UK needs at a time when Coronavirus is impacting a lot of the World. If we are currently allowed to negotiate a trade deal with the US then obviously we can continue to do trade deals elsewhere.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Trade deals take years to negotiate even without the delays resulting from Covid-19. So another year as is won't stop a US one being executed. That's years away, even assuming that it happens.
Not sure there's much lack of sovereignty at the moment in practical terms.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Where was my invite :D

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I've agreed with you on the payment situation and both parties can and should behave pragmatically. With high unemployment across the UK, no vaccination yet for CV-19, demands for higher public spending on healthcare and nursing homes, rapidly increasing Government debt, and business on its knees, the last thing the country needs is another problem just to tick a box that can be delayed for 12 months when we're in a better state to manage it.
I think the Government will acknowledge its priorities and agree an extension in the next couple of months. For now, it's just a waiting game to see what they decide.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

On that issue of the border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland that many people convinced themselves was not coming despite there being no easy alternative. It is coming.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e_iOSApp_Other

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

This is an important point. Of course the Brexit advocating press will try and bury this but remember Johnson explicitly ruled this out in in Nov 2019:

Brexit: No checks on goods from NI to UK, says PM

Remember you vote for someone you like not that you trust ..

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Or has he lied about that too ? ;)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

The trouble with liars is they invariably get found out in the end.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

We are already out. The issue now is whether we will get a trade deal with the EU.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Make your mind up. :rolleyes:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Has the EU done this with any other country (multiple separate trade agreements/deals)?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If that is how you measure your political Leaders, you have a very low bar.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Pierre actually make quite a good post - something few would expect me to ever say - in the Coronavirus thread. He linked to this blog and how it sums up part of the problem.

https://www.effiedeans.com/2020/04/j...d-country.html

I actually found it quite entertaining really. They have, as is often the case, grasped the basics. Yes, Brexit has created a divide. For some this Government will be the party that delivered Brexit - a bitter grudge against Europe some had held since entering the European Economic Area in the 70s. It can do no wrong.

Of course I'm not counting Seph in that group.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Im sorry to say you’ve misinterpreted/misread my post.

I’ll restate it - has the EU done multiple separate trade agreements/deals with another country (treating fisheries as just one of many deals/treaties)?; you mentioned quite a few different deals - quotas and tariffs, fishing, aviation, security, etc.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I'm not claiming it's a huge number, Seph. Some could be few, and still be a vocal 2 per cent on twitter, or the difference in an election. :)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Not trying to trap you into anything (or demean you by calling any of your statements "stupid"); we (the U.K.) are going for a heavily bespoke deal, and your suggestion is that this could be made easier if it were a number of individual deals, rather than a encompassing deal.

If this had been done by the EU with any other country, this would strengthen your proposal, as they couldn’t say "it’s not been done before".

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-partys-review

Nice of the Lib Dems to finally acknowledge the easy way to stop Brexit.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

We would be happy with a Canada-style deal. Hardly bespoke.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

The provisional Agreement that took 7 years to negotiate, and has not yet been ratified by all the EU Member States?

The one that integrates the EU's and Canada's commitments to apply international rules on workers' rights, environmental protection and climate action (and these obligations are binding)?

The one that does little for the trade in services and in particular almost nothing for the trade in financial services?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Just believe, Hugh.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

In terms of our future relationship with the EU:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...cid=spartandhp

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

While thousands of our own sit at home doing naff all, not interested in working, and being paid (benefits) to do so . . .

oh hang on, I forgot they have rights too . . . and a 50" smart TV, the latest smart phone, nice car, holidays, free gas boiler checks, double glazing grants, etc


*oh shut up Carth, you can't change anything* :rolleyes:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

According to your estimates there must be 6.3m of them , still there is nothing like idle talk.;)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Excuse me?

Thousands doesn't sound like 6.3 million (unless you're Ms Abbott) ;)

There are the genuine needy, and there are the scroungers, I know which lot I was thinking of :p:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Labours core voters.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You're a bit "previous Parliament". The new term is "unless you're Priti Patel" :D.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12...ases-deaths-UK

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

More comedy gold from David :dunce: Davis. He's just announced that the German car-makers are going to step in and sort out Brexit. Still believes that they need us more than we need them.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

That an old article? - wasn’t that said 3 years ago, and the car makers disagreed?

https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...t-over-brexit/

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Well, if the measure relates to who exports more to whom, he's right, isn't he?
Let's not go over that old ground again, it will just end up with the same old bickering.

In the end, the EU is demanding from our government everything the electorate have rejected. It seems pretty obvious that unless the EU climb down, we will end up with no deal.If they genuinely want a deal, the EU will need to stop demanding something we are not prepared to concede. They had better be quick, tempus fugits. Tick, tock.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You can't post "let's not go over old ground" then make a series of exactly the same old tiresome arguments.

The key consideration lost is the absence of alternative products to a German car and the fact the average buyer probably wouldn't be put off by duties or taxes. Indeed the slump on the value of the pound would have pushed up the price of a German car yet it didn't cause the Eurozone to devalue the the Euro.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

As we have discussed on many occasions, we are already working to EU standards, so negotiations are far less complicated and should be finalised one way or another before the end of the year.

What is your point about adherence to 'international rules on workers' rights, environmental protection and climate action? Are you implying that the government is not already party to those rules?

The Canada-style deal we are looking for relates to trade in goods. Negotiations on financial services are not included in that and are being negotiated in parallel.

---------- Post added at 11:20 ---------- Previous post was at 11:20 ----------

Cynic.

---------- Post added at 11:24 ---------- Previous post was at 11:20 ----------

If we need foreign workers to support the NHS and caring services, the points based system will reflect that.

As I understand it, the government wants to give hope to people in our country who would like to do this work but are being denied it by foreign workers who are driving down wages.

I cannot see why some people want to carry on with this unfair system.

---------- Post added at 11:29 ---------- Previous post was at 11:24 ----------

The fact that the EU is making demands that the government have rejected is current, not old ground.

If you believe that sales of German cars will not be affected by tariffs, believe on. If that is the case, it works both ways, so what are we worrying about? Trade will continue, and we have the advantage of paying less tariffs to the EU than they are paying to us.

Where's the problem?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

"in parallel"?

You obviously missed the EU's stance on "cherry picking" - the EU approach is one single agreement with the UK, with two core parts: one on economic relations, including trade, and energy, fish and transport, and the second part will cover security.

btw, love the way you casually dismiss 41%* of our exports to the EU...

*services worth £121 billion in 2018,

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Ah the straw man. I didn't say German car sales would be unaffected, I simply said they had proven to hold up despite significant currency fluctuation. A statement of fact.

You erroneously assume all products are like for like in the marketplace (textbook economics) and that Britain's trade to the EU isn't readily replaceable from within the EU.

German cars are very much not like for like with British made cars.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Goods will be cheaper for our consumers under our own UK tariff deal.

https://www.lbcnews.co.uk/uk-news/go...global-tariff/

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Only those from outside the EU. Else what would German car manufacturers have to worry about?

At a 10% tariff on that schedule I don't see Mercedes or BMW worrying too much in the absence of any meaningful competition on these shores. As stated previously less than the impact of the collapse of the pound on the import price.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

£30 billion worth of imports out of £718 billion = 4%.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

"We can’t get what we want" ≠ "bullying"

Both sides have points they see as "red lines" - you seem to see the U.K. not shifting on points as "sovereignty", the EU not shifting as "bullying".

It is right for both sides to protect their positions, without assigning any emotive phrases.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I'll play but this run the danger of going over a well worn path...

Here's my view. Not wanting an argument, just answering your questions;

The European Union is a legal entity that we were part of. We had influence, we had MEPs, we had a seat on the European Council. Now if we vote for MEPs and a government/Prime Minister who are, at best, ambivalent to the functioning of the EU, that's on us as the voters, not on the EU.

The EU was not and is not some monolithic 'other' that ran our country without us having any say. It is a union of nations coming to agreement over issues that had impact to the union as a whole. Nations do not trust one another. This is why legally binding treaties between nations and blocs are in place. The depth of relations and interactions between nations require stronger and deeper treaties.

There is a strange dichotomy in many in the UKs view of current relations between the UK and the EU. There is both British exceptionalism (they need us more than we need them) and paranoia (we're being bullied)

In any negotiation, you need to understand the person you negotiate with's position and get a handle on what they can flex on and what are red lines. You will of course have your own red lines and flex points. The EU tends to be quite open in publishing their position (this is part of how the EU works) while the UK government tends to keep its'cards closer to its chest. Whether the UKs policy of not being so open is a paternalistic approach (trust us public, we know best) or hiding things from the ERG types is not clear.

Do I respect the result of the referendum? Yes. Have I changed my mind about how I would vote if I could go back in time? No, Brexit is a silly idea. If we have to leave the EU, then I would like to it be as soft a landing as possible. Instead, we seem to be going headlong into the most nuclear of options of WTO only while antagonising our neighbours along the way.

That's my 2cents, sorry 2p :-)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

But isn’t that also what the U.K. are saying?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Both parties have set out their red lines as they're entitled to. To permit only one side to do this is illogical. So Hugh is correct.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If I go along to my bank and ask them for loan of a quarter of a million pounds at a 0.1% interest rate and HSBC bank laugh me out of town do I get to write to trading standards and call them bullies?

No. They’re bigger than me and frankly it’s not worth their while engaging with me on such a preposterous basis. I’m not the biggest fan of uncontrolled and unregulated capitalism (as everyone on the forum knows) but I fail to see why some cry “foul” at capitalism in action.

We did vote for Brexit as is our sovereign right to do so. But nobody owes us a single dime as a result. We chose to carve out our own path. If that’s too challenging then that’s an entirely expected outcome of entering negotiations with an observably unrealistic set of objectives.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

My perception is that you're seeing the situation through one filter; that of sovereignty; whereas the central issue is the single market.
Allowing neighbouring countries unfettered access to the single market at no cost and with potential cost advantages through weaker employment rights and environmental standards is not in the EU's interests.
It's so important that such enforcement can't be left to chance and needs to be legally enforceable. So any impact on sovereignty is a side-product, not the key intention.
The differentiation of neighbouring countries is important due to the gravity of trade. The Adam Smith Institute has a good explainer of it here.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Sovereignty doesn’t truly exist under capitalism.

He who pays the piper calls the tune.

Fishing rights has a monetary or strategic value just like US Air Force bases in the UK. Literally everything is a commodity.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

“You’re right, jfman, thanks for converting me.” ;)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

It will be interesting because we, and Europe probably, will be in a depression (not recession).

Home schooling won’t be issue as most of the parents will be unemployed.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I've just described the situation in plain and unemotional language, in response to your request.
By stating that something is not in one party's interests in the second paragraph is neither defending nor condemning one side or the other, it's an observation.
Although I've not defended any side's position, I believe every Brit is entitled to do so.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You asked me to explain the situation which I did.
You said that no Brit should be able to defend either side's position and I said that they could, although I have chosen not to.
Those are the facts.

Your next point - which I've paraphrased as: is the EU compelling the UK to relinquish its sovereignty?
The answer to this is of course not. The UK can choose not to strike a deal. I've explained why sovereignty might be impacted - it's a side-effect as oppose to the main intent.

To further confirm:
- The EU will use all its bargaining chips to try and strike a deal in its members' interests and not the UK's.
- The UK will use all its bargaining chips to try and strike a deal in its own interests and not the EU's.

Whether a player with a better hand is bullying a player with a weaker one - sorry Seph, that's life.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

#2959 has - let's agree on that. ;)
I accept that I have failed in my objective to convince you that the EU does not have some dastardly plan to try and restrict our sovereignty for the sake of it and instead is just trying to ensure a level playing field for the single market.

Moving on, some interesting comments about Johnson's proposals.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/134d5e8f-...8-897f7ca51326

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

More pressure on Johnson to step up and do a deal. With a chastised Cummings, there may be more of an opportunity to do so.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50000530

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

How many EU-made cars does the EU sell in the UK? The tariffs work both ways.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

The respective market sizes are somewhat different. 68m people UK v 445m EU.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Nissan are quite welcome to move all their production to Romania if they so wish, no skin off my nose if their quality reputation plunges further :D

Just more crap from manufacturers that want a sweet deal, hope Boris tells them to bugger off :p:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I'm guessing, like Boris, you don't live in the NE? Those that do and voted for Brexit, may sadly have to pause to reflect over the coming years...

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I really don't think they'll bother now the election is over.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Not quite the NE, but near enough :p:

Have another guess at this then, where do you think Nissan will move to . . . France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia? . . and how much of a 'financial package' will Countries be willing to throw at them under the present (and possibly future) economic uncertainties?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Nissan is part of an alliance with Mitsubishi and Renault. They have recently agreed to head up specific markets: Renault will have Europe and Russia, Nissan China, the US and Japan and Mitsubishi south-east Asia.
So, if Sunderland is uneconomic then Nissan could export to the EU directly from Japan (no tariffs), get Renault to manufacture its models or withdraw from Europe altogether. Renault currently makes the Micra for Nissan.
I have considerable sympathy for the workers in Sunderland who were promised "the easiest deal in history".

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Nissan is clearly positioning itself for another bung from the UK Government if the inevitable No Deal plays out. Not sure the model is sustainable though, lots of companies will be following in an orderly line :)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Good news for importers.

https://www.ft.com/content/37fad070-...3-940b843a0daf

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Brexit: UK 'formally confirms' to EU that it won't extend transition period


Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove says he has told Brussels that "the moment for an extension has now passed".

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-uk...eriod-12005296

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

"Formally confirming" - is that legally binding? :D

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

It's the diplomatic way of saying stick it up..............;)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Not really a surprise.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...rtan-ntp-feeds

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Good news to some I guess :shrug:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I wouldn’t bet against him still being there.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Today's revelations might make reduce the odds of that.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

We have just six weeks to strike a deal with Japan!
Unlike the current extensive one we enjoy due to the EU, this one if achieved will be severely limited in nature. Expect Agriculture to be thrown under the bus.
https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status...170434/photo/1

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Typical sensationalism.

Is there any reason why we can't negotiate this deal in stages? Or why we cannot protect our current position while negotiations continue over a slightly longer period?

Obstacles there may be, but obstacles are there to be overcome.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

The FT is many things but I'm not sure that's a label I would attach to it.

Japan is in a stronger position than us so is calling the shots. It has a range of trade deals across the world including the EU. And of course it's a bigger country.

Japan also feels that we have reneged on the gentleman's agreement it made with Margaret Thatcher's government which secured the Japanese car factories, so its goodwill is diminished.

The trouble with doing it in stages is that there would be an inevitable gap from 1st January to when the next bit of the deal is concluded. This could mean that Japanese buyers go elsewhere and don't return to the UK suppliers when the deal is done.

Our current position with Japan is only there by virtue of the EU and ends on 31 December. Boris has said he won't entertain an extension past this date which would protect our position.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Wanting to promote US goods, how evil.:rolleyes:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I can only conclude you're viewing that link from China as it actually links to "John Bolton: Trump sought Xi's help to win re-election" ;)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

No different to just about every other world leader about their country.