Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

That doesn’t answer my question either.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

Definitely a outlier according to the latest polling done by Sky News.

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-ex...-news-13144620

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

I’m shocked - shocked - at your insinuation that they may be conducting politically coloured polling. Surely they wouldn’t deliberately construct a poll designed to push respondents to answer in a certain way, would they?

Would they?





WOULD

THEY

?

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

Who would benefits from such a poll? Constituency workers aren't naive and all the MPs who've announced they won't be standing have pretty much done so haven't they? Is it an attempt to squeeze some money out of donors to cover the leaner years in opposition?

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

JL Partners have been around for a while. They were founded by a pollster who worked for Theresa May. The guy himself has a tendency, in my opinion anyway, to put the best possible light on Tory strategy. He sees everything as a clever strategic play that the media/Twitter doesn't get, not always unfairly.

But the poll is legit.

They get different results because of how they deal with Don't Knows. They and Opinium weight by 2019 vote, in other words they take the DKs and see what they did last election.

Other pollsters force them to choose. 'If you HAD to vote today, who would you vote for...'

And others remove them entirely.

What poll you believe depends on what weighting you think makes most sense. We won't know whose right until election day.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

It allows them to write a press release which they can send to friendly newspapers in the hope of getting a big headline that gives the impression of momentum. The Tories will do much better than they are presently forecast to do if they can stop Reform from splitting their vote. Surprise, surprise, this poll shows them achieving that. If it persuades some of those teetering between Reform and Conservative to think that its worth voting Tory after all, then it has achieved a political aim.

---------- Post added at 09:24 ---------- Previous post was at 09:22 ----------

Of course the poll is legit - they aren’t just making it up as they go along. But polling 101 is that you affect the output by the way you collect and weight the input. As you said yourself, this operation is run by a Tory fanboy. He knows exactly what he’s doing.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

YouGov was also founded by Tories. It doesn't mean they're intentionally biasing the results. This is a polling company looking to get commissioned to do polls and they don't profit by being wrong when the outcome becomes known.

This particular poll was commissioned by 'The Rest is Politics' podcast, owned by Gary Linker and fronted by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart. It's a center-to-center-left podcast. So this isn't producing a poll to a client's intentionally biased spec either (which legitimate polling companies try to avoid anyway).

I happen to think the poll is wrong. It's an outlier so far. It has Labour up higher in England and much lower in Scotland and Wales against the evidence we've seen. They have a very intentional DK weighting which benefits the Tories - but it isn't necessarily incorrect to map DKs to their previous vote.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

Another Conservativs attack fails.

Angela Rayner cleared by HMRC over tax on sale of former home https://www.theguardian.com/politics...=share_btn_url

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

The Greens are now ahead of the Tories with the under 50's. I think we might really be seeing the death of a political party (hopefully). And maybe a new force in politics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ters-under-50/

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

This election campaign locally in my part of South Wales, is very different to the last two. In both previous elections, the local social media pages were filled with the "kinder gentler" politics for anyone who had a different view.

This time around there's not a peep so far out of the local and not so local left wing extremists. Last time the local group who are always complaining about tax evasion, brought in a political activist from the Swansea area to assist them. It didn't take much digging to discover he had been convicted of fraud (tax evasion), he had also been caught using fake online profiles and stealing another persons identity.

Why is the campaign so quiet here, where are they I wonder. I can only assume Eco and pro-Palestine protests are giving them more of a kick.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

Much the same was said in 1997. And similar of Labour, as it flailed about and then lurched ever leftwards after 2010.

They’re going to be out of power for at last 10 and probably 15 years - maybe even more - but ‘death’ … that’s way premature.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

Conservatives will need to refresh themselves - become more centrist and more green to attract future voters. They're the Party most in power and I can’t see this changing.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1
 

Oh yes. Give it a few years and expect the emergence of the “New Conservatives”. #TradeMark

---------- Post added at 08:40 ---------- Previous post was at 08:39 ----------

….and far too optimistic.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1