Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Yes, he changed his mind over Brexit too. Will he change again? ;)
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a3370296.html

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

The answer to that will depend on the question 'what is in it for Boris?'

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I guess if it means less work for him, then he could well be tempted. I don't think he'd lose sleep over such a decision and if he's popular with the electorate, he may get away with it. Some leavers might moan but they're going to moan anyway when the October deadline is pushed back.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Telegraph link included for those who have access.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Really hate how politicians now have little cheer-squads with them to heckle and boo journalists who dare ask their leaders questions.

Boris/Corbyn/Farage - any time one of them gets asked even a mildly challenging question they get booed and heckled. What kind of society do these idiots want to live in?

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

The problem with journalists these days is they all want to be the one who brings down the person they are interviewing,instead of asking questions about their policies they try mud raking all the time.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

But when they do ask tough questions about policy politicians generally use that old trick of obfuscation and smoke and mirrors.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

How strange - the Comres site seems to give a different message for that poll - it shows Labour getting 83 more seats than the Conservatives.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Possibly because the ComRes web page you copied from only includes the results for their standard top line “who would you vote for?” question, whereas the Telegraph has commissioned a pile of extra research, not reported on the web page, that explores differing voting intentions depending on who the next Tory leader is.

That research is in the PDF linked from your ComRes page, and the results begin in Table 34, on p37 of the PDF.

This isn’t the first set of results I’ve seen that prove the Tories have no choice but to select Boris if they want to win another election any time in the next 10 years. It remains to be seen however whether the parliamentary party is thinking straight enough to choose survival over the opportunity to settle scores.

If Boris finishes in the top 2 of the MPs ballot, he’ll win the members’ vote by a country mile and then politics in this country is going to get really interesting.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Lots of pollsters have issue with the Telegraph's reporting on the poll though. They commissioned the question, that's fine, but to attempt to translate it into seats without context looks to be an attempt from The Telegraph to promote Boris.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/sta...15049047076864

I mean I have doubts that Boris is so popular that he'll storm to the biggest majority the Tories have seen since Thacher.....

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Maybe, maybe not. I have no doubt that the Left, including the liberal, metropolitan left that fancies itself as the authentic voice of Twitter, is absolutely crapping its pants over the thought of Boris as Tory party leader because, regardless of what extrapolations the Telegraph has made, as things stand he clearly does have the reputation and voter recognition that other candidates don’t, he is the arch-Brexiteer, closely associated with the battle bus and the £350 million slogan that brings them out in hives, and he beat Ken Livingstone to be London mayor twice in a city that, at its default setting, is Labour territory.

Far be it from me to argue the technicalities of poll construction as I’m not an expert, but I absolutely don’t believe that anyone frantically tweeting a multi-part rebuttal after hastily deleting a first attempt that basically read “bull5hyt, bull5hyt, bull5hyt” is coming at this purely from a desire to defend good social science.

Another objection I see being raised is that May was also popular until she went up in front of voters; this cheerfully ignores the fact that Boris has been up in front of voters in a way few other of our current generation of politicians have and, as I’ve already said, won Labour London against the most Laboury, Londony Londoner ever to run for office. Twice.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Not everything is a lefty conspiracy. The guy is a Professor of Social Sciences and has written a lot on polling. He was one of the senior people working with John Curtice for the Exit Poll at the last election and is a frequent commentator on how polling works and he is also backed up by a Director at YouGov: https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/st...04304527855616

The point is precisely that Boris is well known and most of the others are not. However the latter will change if they were to become Prime Minister. It's taking this scenario and run with it as if there was a General Election today with the idea that at that point nobody has heard of whoever is leading the Tory party as would be the case with Mark Harper. All based on one poll.

As for Boris winning in London this was Pre-Brexit when he was perceived quite differently and not just from the 'metropolitan-left' but also the more liberal wing of the Conservative Party. A very different Boris Johnson would be running now. For example if you plug the Telegraph's assumption into electoral calculus itself you have the Tories winning Brighton Pavilion from the Green Party which seems unlikely....

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I understand the recognition argument so far as it affects the other candidates but that argument seems to depend on increased recognition for, say Jeremy Hunt, resulting in less recognition for Boris Johnson. The ComRes poll data that the Torygraph has relied on for its headline doesn’t ask voters to choose between candidates, it asks them who they would vote for in a general election, multiple times, each time with a different person in charge of the Tory party.

I totally get that the Torygraph is waving a flag for Boris and is interpreting a dataset that has piled hypothetical situations upon hypothetical situations to get where it is. I totally get that uniform swing calculations are not an exact science, and that predicting a Tory win in Green Central is the proof of the pudding.

Nevertheless, there is a clear difference in public perception of the Tory leadership candidates. Boris is, as things stand, the clear favourite among them as far as the public is concerned. The liberal left - which I am pretty much certain counts Rob Ford amongst its number quite regardless of the level of impartiality required by his day job, in which capacity he is not tweeting today - is terrified of Johnson precisely because they understand these polls are telling them they should be. Technical rebuttals of the methodology and interpretation try, and fail, to obfuscate the obvious, basic truth that as of right now, BoJo has an advantage over the other candidates. The Left knows this and has been frantically going after him for weeks to try and poison the well. They really, really don’t want him to get the job, not just because he’s a Tory, not just because of his personal failings, but because he is the Tories’ best chance of delivering Brexit and winning an election. And if he does that, the Corbyn project is finished.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

So do I, but he is the only realistic choice if the Tories want to have any chance of contesting the next election

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

But that's the central objection to what the Telegraph has done. It's not so much that Boris has done well, although they do question the extent to which such a hypothetical is useful at all, but that they've compared him with full name recognition to everyone else then projected that to seat outcomes in an election. In the underlying data there is 31% DK voting intention with Stewart as leader.

Does the poll show Boris is the most popular of the candidates? Yes. Does it show he is the difference between a huge majority and the Tories losing over 100 seats? Not really.

You're taking what appears to simply be legitimate objections to that as being motivated by a metropolitan elite fear of Boris Johnson. It's just a crap way to report the results.

As an aside I think you overestimate the degree to which the liberal left cares about the Corbyn project. It's no more a singular bloc than the right is. The surge of support for the Liberal Democrats and the clearly soft numbers for Corbyn show how little of a base Corbyn's Labour actually has.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

A society were the country is so divided. I like the way Boris dodged the question did you take cocaine while at University the reply was there are more important issues to debate!


Make a Dis-United Kingdom great again... I don't think so.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Arch brexiteer, he made his mind up the night before campaigning started and had opinion pieces for both sides depending on what side offered the best prospects for boris, you follow him if you like but to me he's the worst type of leader and politician, he'll let you and the rest of us down on a whim when it suits him, why else do you think he's left his announcement to the last moment and generally kept his head down throughout, it's because he doesn't stand up to scrutiny, he's gets by on being that funny bloke of the telly, scratch the surface though politically and it's as grubby as his personal life

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Thing is Boris is way, way ahead so they're keeping him out of the limelight as much as possible to avoid slipping up.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Yes, there were some good articles a week ago contrasting his approach to Gove's.

---------- Post added at 21:41 ---------- Previous post was at 21:40 ----------

Nailed it.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Boris Johnson leads 1st round leadership contest with 114 votes as Leadsom, McVey and Harper knocked out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ader-live-news

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

BoJo already has enough support to secure a place in the “final two” ballot of party members. His chances of being the next PM are very, very good right now.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Trouble is that we are getting like the galactic president in Hitchhiker's. It's not content that's important it's image, at least in some respects.

Mrs May was not very good in front of the cameras. Whatever you think of him Boris is. And imagine the fun of Donald and Boris together, the combined ego's could collapse in on themselves and create a black hole.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Disappointing to see Stewart still in and the two ladies out .

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I wonder who's in the shed with their cat in the back of beyond who really makes all the important decisions?

:rofl:

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

It pretty much confirms Boris as PM unless he does something to detonate his own chances

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

There are minders pretty much sitting on him 24/7 and he’s being very careful about when and how he answers questions. He knows it’s his to lose.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

And this is the man people want to be our Prime Minister? Someone who needs "minders" to ensure he does not reveal his true personality?

Fun times ahead indeed ..

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Plus possible dangerous times ahead... how long will Boris Karloff Johnson last I am wondering.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Long enough to complete Brexit at least.;)

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Unless he changes his mind (again)... ;)

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I find it worrying that he criticised police funding being "spaffed* up the wall" for historical sex abuse investigations.

* I'd never heard of that term before, but it means ejaculated.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

What a naughty Boris he is...

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Did not Theresa May say that ..;)

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Apparently the swear filter hasn’t heard of it either :rofl:

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

In that case long enough to see the demise of the conservative party.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

It deserves to be interred - putting it’s own interests above the country’s.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

The country expressed it's will to leave the Eu,that is what is in the country's interest and is the only way to serve democracy.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

:nono:

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I don’t agree with this statement (as I understand how our Parliamentary system works), but it’s amusing how these things come back to haunt people...

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1560465040

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Sir John Major has launched a blistering assault on some Tory leadership candidates.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ted-hypocrites

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Doubtless his words about leaving the EU in 31/10 will come back to haunt him too. Never mind, at least he'll have Larry the cat for company....

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Matt Hancock has dropped out. Now there are six.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48631706

And Lord Sugar has Tweeted his support for BoJo :Yikes:

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Bojo signs up to bbc tv debate

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48638758

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

There are suggestions that the candidates should drop out to allow a quicker process and get the new PM in. Hard to justify staying in this situation without a functioning government when it's clear Johnson is going to win so might as well give him the extra month....

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Perhaps they should, but the rationale for staying in for the time being is to demonstrate their support within the party and increase their chances of a plum ministerial job in BoJo’s first cabinet.

The remaining rounds of voting will all take place fairly quickly next week and the members ballot is postal, so there’s not really much scope for speeding things up now anyway, unless everyone bar Boris drops out (and I don’t think that’s a good idea for the country or the party).

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

It works for Trump....:erm:

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

If you thought May's social care policy was risky then Hunt is really going a step further:

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/loc...06/2.jpg:small

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Has he said how it is going to be paid for?.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Savings in state pension. Fiscally responsible, electorally questionable to euthanise your own voters though.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I'm just wondering whom has promised whom what position they would like in the cabinet for their support for whomever?

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Last nights TV debacle was quite painful to watch, i think Boris was right not to attend it was just a slanging match,the award for loathsome maggot of the night must go to Rory Stewart the arrogant prat,it was typical of the political rubbish produced by C4.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Well there is this one for starters..;)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-f-word-tirade

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eadership-race

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I quite like Rory, the only half honest one there. Which is why he'll never win ! A party still living in cuckoo land...

The one MP really backing Boris, will be a certain J Corbyn ...

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Corbyn may hope for Boris, but Corbyn’s a fantasist. The more intelligent strategists in the Labour Party know that Boris is the candidate most likely to improve the Tories’ electoral prospects enough win an election.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

The problem the strategists have is that by the time the next election comes, they won't have been able to hide Bozza away any longer or stop him opening his gob. The electorate will have seen Bozza 'not in action', we'll have maybe had a hard Brexit and the ensuing fall out. The Govt. of the day will carry the can. That's why Corbyn is all for Boris and secretly for a hard Brexit.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

If Boris lets his cabinet/parliament/civil service get on with the work what he actually says may not matter too much.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Ah so leave it to the civil service and parliament to deliver Brexit. A cunning plan indeed, they'll be sure to deliver ;)

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

History says otherwise. He won London, twice, against Ken Livingstone. I know it’s hard to compute but he has an ability to connect with the electorate. The sort of gaffes that cause palpitations within the Westminster bubble simply don’t resonate in the same way with the wider electorate.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

You've only got to look at the Trump presidency to see how wrong you are about that. Boris has quite a following, and you are most unwise to ignore that.

This country will never elect a Marxist led Labour Party except by accident (ie a split vote). As long as the Brexit Party doesn't contest the next GE, there is no chance of that happening.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Johnson isn't the same character he was in the London Mayoral race these days though. A lot of people have already formed an opinion of him and he has become a bogeyman of sorts for Remain.

I think he would win a majority at the next election though but because of how unpopular Corbyn is. Even with the Tories in an utter state they're still largely matching Labour so any sense of direction and structure from the party will probably bounce them over the top. Plus the voters who left them will likely come back if Corbyn looks to stand a chance of getting into No 10.

What's interesting is his seat, Uxbridge. If (let's face it when) he comes PM then Labour might well focus on it. He has a decent majority at 10% but if there are many Tory > Lib Dem defections then it becomes a contested seat. London + increase in young voters there + Brexit might make it a contest albeit a long shot.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I'm not sure he would win again as London Mayor. The Evening Standard on Friday has said it would back the liberal, pro-business Boris but has reservations about the current populist, f-business Boris.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Labour experimented with decapitation in 2015, piled a ton of resources into Sheffield Hallam and failed to beat Nick Clegg while also losing Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood, a seat that was at risk and which they should have made efforts to defend.

They may well be dumb enough to try, but parties that are serious about wining power target their resources at the seats needed for an overall majority, not on high profile scalps.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

In case you haven't noticed, Boris is not aiming for 'remain' voters! :D

If he delivers the referendum result as he promises, he will win a lot of loyalty from the electorate.

You underestimate the popularity of Boris with younger voters, and when they come to realise the Brexit was not the disaster they were led to believe it would be, even more will come over to him.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

No but the point is the wider appeal he had is gone in an electorate which is heavily fractured by the referendum result.

Just how popular do you think Boris Johnson is with younger voters?

---------- Post added at 14:14 ---------- Previous post was at 14:08 ----------

Their own internal polling will likely inform if they go for it. It'll depend how strong they think the Liberal Democrats will be in Uxbridge, if it's strong enough to peel off enough pro-European liberal Tories they might try. It'll depend how Boris Johnson handles Brexit IMO. If he goes for no deal they I think the seat will be in play.

Labour are better in their on the ground campaigning since 2015. It was part of their success in 2017.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

The ages groups and to which percentage vote for the Conservative and Labour party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol...and-old-voters

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ty-age-voters/

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/t...arty-wxtgn6c25

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I don't disagree, but that's a Conservative Party with Theresa May in charge.

Bring Boris in and that will really become a party!

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Having a different leader won't change the age demographic of Conservative voters...

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Judging by his new partner, Boris seems to be appealing to a younger demographic already. :D

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Hey, let’s introduce some hard data into the discussion.

This is how the candidates are viewed by party members, likely Tory voters and the public at large.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1560786963

https://order-order.com/2019/06/17/5...e-poor-leader/

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

The general public don't know who some of them are. I imagine the 'lesser' names will have high numbers of 'Don't Know' in their polling who are filtered out. Gove and Stewart ratings are technically less than Corbyn there.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Wow!

A whole 31% of the British public!

Landslide, then... :D

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Will be if he delivers Brexit!

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Good old Theresa said that.:D

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Didn’t you mean "when"? ;)

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Of course it can! The leader of any party can make all the difference.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

if he becomes leader the 2 main parties with have joke leaders and racist leaders a isamophobe and a anti semite great times NOTTTTTTTTTTT god help our country if that the choice

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I wouldn't call Jeremy Corbyn a joke leader. He's bloody dangerous!

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

so is Boris both be a disaster for the UK

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

As is Boris Johnson so they would make the perfect couple...

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Indeed. And BoJo like JC has promised to be fiscally irresponsible. BoJo's way is by cutting taxes for the well off.

---------- Post added at 22:18 ---------- Previous post was at 21:37 ----------

Will be interesting to see how BoJo performs on Tuesday night. This article suggests he is guilty of being all things to all people. That's easier to pull off in multiple one-to-one meetings than on a TV debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rexit-promises

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Cutting taxes for the better off has been shown to increase tax take, but you carefully avoid that little fact. You are promoting the politics of envy. There is nothing fiscally irresponsible in Boris's tax proposals, but I think you know that.

---------- Post added at 07:26 ---------- Previous post was at 07:24 ----------

Boris won't, actually, even taking account of the buffonery.

However, Corbyn would soon cripple the economy as he dances with his terrorist friends.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Johnson is not the Messiah although he may at some point been a very naughty boy.

It is weird to see grown adults trying (and it seems succeeding) to convince themselves that someone who is a proven liar (many times) without a principled bone in his body is a fit and proper person to lead this country in this most perilous of times.

We have posters says that "maybe the civil service will protect us from him", really? Is this really where we have ended up? I really do despair. :(

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

There's just no pleasing you is there,if he gets the job it's via a democratic process as per the party rule book.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

I have serious misgivings about BoJo. However I have far more serious misgivings about Jeremy Corbyn, and also John McDonnell who is very likely to succeed him within the next 5 years.

We do have a system of cabinet government in this country so comparisons between Boris Johnson and Donald Trump only get us so far. The cabinet restrains a PM, and yes, the civil service does as well. Above all, PM Boris, if indeed he wins it, will still have a wafer thin parliamentary majority for at least the next 2 years.

I agree it’s sad when we’re reduced to choosing between the least-worst candidates for the job, but when it comes to it there is absolutely no way I ever want to see Corbyn and the failed, mid-20th century statist politics he represents, ruling over this country. I don’t think Boris Johnson can do worse than that, and given the current polling data it seems he is most likely to be able to prevent it. On that basis I’d rather see him in No.10.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Loving the expression: "democratic process as per the party rule book" Something Stalin would have been proud of! (Cue the Corbyn retort ;) )

The Tory Party membership: a true and honest reflection of this country's opinions & values :)

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

You can aim that sentiment at the Labour party as well.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

The party membership doesn’t have to be. The party chooses its leader, not the prime minister. Ultimately the position of PM is a matter of parliamentary confidence. And parliamentary sovereignty is very much the thing right now.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

So true but JC is not current Clown about to embarrass the country. His turn is next ;)

---------- Post added at 08:46 ---------- Previous post was at 08:45 ----------

Agreed but it is important to remember the type of people who will make this decision. In the same way, we should remember the role of Momentum in getting JC into power.

Both unrepresentative cabals ..

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

He may in touch with the nutty right wingers, but he's out if touch with the rest of the country.
E.g his definition of middle income. He believes raising the 40p tax rate from £50k to £80k will help the average Joe. Someone needs to tell him the average UK salary is around £28k, it'd probably be a genuine surprise.(and MPs salaries being £79k is a total coincidence to this new policy!)

People want more spent on public services, health education, police, social care. The days of tax cuts are gone, it doesn't necessarily get votes any longer.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Well given the extremely likely choice of leader that the Conservative party will choose as their next leader and next PM and the current incumbent leader of the Labour party my vote will be going elsewhere come the next general election and its not a decision l take lightly.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

You could have joined the party if you wanted to democratically influence the vote, you can join now and influence decisions in the future but not in this election as per the party rules.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

All true, but it’s also important to remember that we don’t directly elect the executive in this country. We never have. Party leadership is a matter for party membership, which by its nature is unrepresentative. Premiership is a matter for Parliament - the Parliament we all elect. When we hold a General Election we should perhaps be more mindful of the power we are investing in the individual we elect to represent our constituency and less so of those who happen to hold ministerial positions at the time.

Perhaps the fractiousness and rebelliousness of Parliament these last few months will help re-establish that understanding.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Agreed. The delicious irony is that Johnson vehemently objected to the appointment of Gordon Brown after Blair stepped down:

Boris Johnson blasted leaders becoming PM without election in old column



---------- Post added at 09:52 ---------- Previous post was at 09:50 ----------

I think you wasted the crayon on this one :)

---------- Post added at 10:01 ---------- Previous post was at 09:52 ----------

Some colour on the values of said membership. What they will accept in turn for getting Brexit. Truly frightening:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9U47CRX...jpg&name=small

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

If you think your input is a waste then that's up to you.

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and Rory Stewart through to next round in leadership race , Dominic Raab knocked out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48678723

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Goofy's still in it then

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Perhaps he has got a nice nickname for you old papa.;)

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Adonis ?

---------- Post added at 18:33 ---------- Previous post was at 18:30 ----------

How did you know who i was referring to if he don't resemble goofy.;)

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Re: Leadership who is the next PM?
 

Suspicion that Gavin Williamson, working on Boris' campaign, organised enough votes from Boris supporters to keep Javid in the race: https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/...37221790867463