Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes the good ole 'tankbuster' I remember it well. All very well if the Yanks are inclined to a) get involved and b) stay involved. I expect their Nato obligations might be called into question if all hell broke loose in E. Europe. Let's hope their commitment isn't tested.

Putin's playing a very dangerous game of chess and you have to wonder if he'd back down in the event that his bluff was ever called or whether he'd see his destiny as the leader of some glorious Soviet anti-western crusade...

Anyway I reckon defence sector shares could well be on the rise shortly...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Putin isn't as secure as some think. Russia is connected to the global economy now and I doubt it's citizens would sit still if they saw it sliding back to the bad ol' days.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The Russian people are well used to government oppression and Russian governments are well used to dishing it out. I don't see Putin and his cronies being overthrown by a 'people's army'. Bring back Gorby!

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

"The Soviet Union? I thought you guys broke up?"

"That's what we wanted you to think!"

http://vimeo.com/87939821

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Makes any tanky on the enemy side have bowl movements :D

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26652399

And therein lies the problem - the EU rarely agrees about anything of significance without thrashing it all out for years. Putin knows it and he's warning the West to keep off his turf.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26659578

Meanwhile:

The treaty's almost done and dusted while the west is still deciding what to have for lunch during their various meetings...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Let's just say Russia decides to take all of the Ukraine by force. What are we in Europe or the US going to do about it? Anything involving the military has the possibility of escalating to a full on war with Russia and that's not a war that anyone will win. All sides would lose. It's all well and good going on about how ineffective this or that is but at the end of the day rolling over is the only sensible option, at least for now, IMO.

The Chinese government must be rubbing their hands right now. They've politically distanced themselves from Russia during all of this and worst case scenario they have the capability to mop up after the fact.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I don't think attempting to take the rest of Ukraine by military force is an option for Putin. The consequences at home and abroad are too high a price to pay. Poltical destabilisation will be his modus operandi, as it has been doing since the orange revolution.

What will be interesting is whether or not the Americans will cease to restrain the Saudis (via the CIA) from funding and cultivating Chechen separatists/terrorists.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

@ Kabaal - Military action would of course be a last resort but until the west is seen to have a credible plan for a prompt and painful response to acts like this all the pontificating in the word adds up to so much hot air. Who do our leaders think they're kidding? We don't believe they have the stomach for meaningful economic sanctions and neither does Putin. Until that changes he can be pretty sure that another land grab will go equally unpunished. What better way to encourage him to try?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Play the long game. Germany should keep her nuclear power plants. Britain should build them and turn to shale gas. We then sell excess energy to Europe. Then we can cut Russia off and give Putin the cold war he seems to crave.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

One would hope so

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Only within the context of Putin's extemely selective, historic references. Even the name "Crimea" is not remotely Slavic in origin, it's a Turkic name derivation synonymous with the native Tatars. Not an excuse for violation of international law.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Which illegal action are we backing?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The little steps in the war of words will soon start a new cold war and all the costs that grow from that.

http://news.sky.com/story/1230435/ru...ady-warns-nato

The arms manufactures must be rubbing there hands in glee

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26704205

What really worries me is that Putin, buoyed by events in Crimea, might just go one step too far and set off a very serious chain of events. He's denying the action in Crimea was planned but that's as preposterous and his claim that Russian forces weren't involved. :rolleyes: It was planned and executed and if he feels he can snatch a bit more territory elsewhere and get away with it, he may well try it on again. Given that he clearly wants to be seen as a warrior, a big Russian bear, how would his huge ego react to having his bluff called I wonder.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

What worries me the most is that this could escalate to a position we never want to be in ever again.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_missile_crisis

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

We let him take Crimea too easily. He will be emboldened. I think he is thinking about taking Eastern Ukraine.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

There you go Vladimir... don't spread yourself to thin now!

Turkey downs Syrian military jet

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Turkey does not take any crap and they do exactly what they say they will do.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26809625

Demands? And what if the people of Ukraine don't accept Russian demands?

I wouldn't believe any of their assurances - they've proved that they will take what they and argue about it later when it's a fait accompli...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Darth Vader is out of the presidential running for the upcoming elections, which is perhaps fortunate because he wanted to turn Ukraine into "a galactic empire".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news...where-26882664

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26975204


Looks like this is the start of tit for tat retaliation.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

We should do more to help them, lend them some top notch equipment, have NATO conduct maneuvers in Ukraine, that type of stuff, pretty much everything short of getting involved with a war.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

A big part of this mess was the west pushing ever Eastwood despite years of warnings from Russia perhaps instead of constantly pushing our ideology's and beliefs onto new frontiers we should pause and get our own house in order first.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

And we're in the mess now, dithering and.pausing for thought isn't going to help the Ukrainians, we got them into it we're obliged to help them out of it.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Would our involvement really help or do even more damage I'm not sure right now I think the best way to calm the tension is to back off and halt further advances to the east. There will be those who parrot the line of "we must stand up to Putin" which is all well and good but the reality is there is bugger all we can effectively do to stand up to him. He has been modernising and rearming the Russian military at a time we've all been cutting both military budgets and manpower to the point where our ability to present a credible military block to whatever ambitions he might have is no block at all. Russia needs more time to be a nation we can build a more balanced relationship with, only time will remove the old soviet attitudes and diehards and we haven't given the time. All we have done in the west is progress further and further east right onto Russia's doorstep and now other nations and their populations will pay for it.

All this mad Vlad and evil Putin crap is a smokescreen for us to avoid taking any responsibility for a problem we did everything to create as the west has always done is it any wonder Russia has got more nervous and angry over the years.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Pushing further Eastward?

So if ex-Warsaw Pact countries want to embrace democracy, join non-Russian economic and/or military groupings, this is seen as being provocative?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

:clap:

The EU is trying to build a United States of Europe, so what better way than to offer billions in aid to ex eastern block countries as a sweetener for joining there grand dream.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I think this "evil Putin crap" is because of his own actions. I know it's fashionable to engage in moral relativism and create a situation where we're as bad as each other but this is not the case.

Russia is 148 on the Press Freedom Index. Look at some of the countries above it. They don't have fair elections and Putin's political opponents often find themselves facing criminal charges. Reporters die in Russia for doing their jobs. Also whilst Russia has found a love for referendums on self-determination, albeit at gunpoint, in Crimea it is not a right they wish to afford to those in Chechnya. I'll remind you that the UK has offered many of it's people the right to break away with Scotland being only the most recent example.

Finally the fate of Eastern European countries should not be up to Russia to decide. This idea that the West is moving further and further to Russia's borders, as if it these sovereign nations were Russia's land, is cold war thinking and quite troubling. It should be up to the people to decide and the majority of them seem to want to join NATO. Maybe those closest to Russia remember what living under their rule was like the last time and have no desire to revisit that?

Remember when the Berlin Wall fell the people behind those walls headed West.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It should not be up to Putin to decide what these former Soviet states do but it'd be naïve to think that Russia won't act if it continues. Unfortunately that's the world we're living in and the reality we have to confront. If there were to be a sudden rush of former Soviet states to join the EU and Nato we may all argue that it's their right to do so but exercising that right is likely going to lead to some form of military conflict which will serve nobody well and could spiral out of control.

The big question is not whether these states have a right to determine their own futures but the extent to which the west will back their decisions with economic and even military support. We all know what the US did when the Russians tried to ship missiles to Cuba and how close were to WWIII. If we understand those actions maybe we should also understand that Putin doesn't want to be surrounded by western leaning countries who see their future in the EU and Nato. There are many wrongs in this world which we can't and won't sort out for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which is the cost/risk of so doing. Maybe the fate of certain former Soviet states falls into that category but we ought to bear in mind that raising false hopes amongst them could backfire very badly indeed.

How would the west react, I wonder, if all the former Soviet states decided they wanted to be part of Russia again and become hosts to their military forces. How would we react if the Russians started making overtures to Turkey and other nations the EU sees as possible future members. What would we do if the Turkish people voted to leave Nato as a result and join a military alliance with Russia. Would we do nothing and simply respect their right to do so? At what point does the threat to the west become so serious that military action is inevitable?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well I would like to assume that we wouldn't do anything. I am not sure under what merit we could invade a Foreign country for enacting their democratic rights. Besides I don't think it will happen and, if it did, it wouldn't be so bad anyway. Russia would have to be a very different country for everyone to suddenly be so keen to rejoin the Soviet Union. As a rule people tend not to vote to disenfranchise themselves.

As far as I am concerned the concept of self-determination, the right to decide who governs you and democracy are not just a Western trait and a different way of looking at the world. It's a fundamental right that populations naturally desire or gravitate towards whether it's the fall of the Soviet Union and the subsequent Westward focus of it's former states or the Arab Spring. Few want to go in the other direction.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Indeed i was in Germany when it happened and watched the aftermath of it in Paderborn. The cost to the local services was massive and i think the Germans are only now fully recovered financially. I still say it was the best thing that happened however and started the ball rolling for the end of the cold war.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well that's clearly depend on what we perceived the threat to our interests to be and how serious it was. Clearly the US thought missiles in Cuba posed a serious enough risk to their way of life to trump any concerns they had about anything else, including Cuba's right to choose.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Watched the film the other night about the Cuban missile crisis and it raised parallels with what is happening now.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Bit of a difference between a country electing a democratic government that does not automatically align itself with Russia, and a country shipping nuclear missiles to somewhere 90 miles from your country's border......

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes it's a very big difference (and hopefully nothing like it will ever happen again) but it illustrates the point that sometimes people exercising their free choice impacts others in a way which is deemed unacceptable and leads to conflict. Let's all hope things calm down in that part of Europe without too much conflict but let's not delude ourselves that things can't escalate well beyond the current boundaries.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

People didn't exercise their free choice. These weren't democratic countries....

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Iirc the Americans had nukes in Turkey, less than 90 miles from Soviet territory which prompted their deployment to Cuba.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27045534

Good job we didn't listen to those who claimed the cold war was over forever eh?... :erm:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Bit by bit we are heading for a major confrontation.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well the stakes seems to be getting raised every day. Let's hope common sense prevails.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The arms manufactures will be rubbing there hands in glee.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well the French & Airbus won't want to restrict the Russians too much as they get Titanium used in the A380 from Russia and if that stops the planes don't get made and Airbus could go bust.

Because I would guess there would be penalty clauses in late deliveries.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27065782

Odd how he's suddenly all for dialogue now... :rolleyes:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

And now we know how believable he is when he makes statements....

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Calm down everyone.

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that all sides have agreed to steps to "de-escalate" the crisis in Ukraine at talks in Geneva."

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So in other words the Russians will remove there undercover people from the buildings that have been occupied ;)

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Quite.

Let's hope that henceforth the West doesn't believe a single word that guy and/or his cronies utter.

---------- Post added at 19:33 ---------- Previous post was at 19:31 ----------

You mean the bona fide passers by who happened to buy military uniforms and equipment in the local high street... :rolleyes:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Even if Russia does deescalate they've still managed to annex Crimea and got away scot free :(

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

This.

"Jews must register or face deportation".

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I'm sure they'll be hoping the west will have learned nothing from the experience too.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Hopefully the West has learned:

• Russia is a bad actor on the world stage. Their interests are not our interests.
• Don't trust Putin. Ever.
• Start reducing dependecy on Russian oil right now.
• Slowly work to bring countries that wish to join NATO into the fold and secure their borders.
• Don't trust Putin. Ever.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I think we should add to that list:

Don't trust Putin. Ever!

Prepare a standard response to Russian acts of aggression which are agreed by all in advance and can be implemented quickly. While the EU and Nato were discussing what to do, Putin had made his move and secured a checkmate. It seems to me that Russia is like a playground bully which will carry on pushing people around until someone suddenly smacks him in the face. We need to have an option to hit Russian interests hard and fast as long as they continue to feel they're running rings around bloated and ponderous western 'committees' and getting away with it, they'll carry on pushing their luck.

I think that FIFA ought to remove the world cup from Russia but doubt that'll happen so at the very least there should be a mass boycott of the tournament if FIFA can't get its act together.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Shhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!................

:D

There's still time to organise somewhere else to play the tournament. IIRC Fifa has an entirely credible backup plan for just such an eventuality - fresh after the unmitigated success which is Qatar 2022, they've signed up Libya as standby hosts... :D

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://news.sky.com/story/1245087/uk...-mystery-flyer

Obviously an attempt at provocation but it could still turn nasty

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes there's plenty of scope for things to get very nasty indeed. Look what happened in the Balkans.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Keep up :)

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/35689838-post270.html

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

to be honest i haven't been reading the thread lately i thought it was all over,i was awestruck at how NATO and the EU have put a stop to Russias antics ,makes me wonder why Russia bothered to go up against the might of the EU

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes right now they're preparing another strongly worded letter that'll cow Moscow into submission, Vlad will tell 'em we definitely won't be annexing east Ukraine in the future 100% guaranteed and why will he be making such guarantees because they're annexing it right now!

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27162941

Meanwhile:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27162158

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Russia want to destabilise the Ukraine elections as it's easier for them to claim a mandate to intervene when the Government isn't election and because they probably won't like who the people choose. If Putin thinks the West is trying to seize Ukraine then why not let it's people decide who governs them? Or is the real problem the fact Ukraine people are trying to seize Ukraine against his better judgement?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-27200078

Russia reacting to the west reacting to Russia reacting... Sadly it's all very reminiscent of the 1970's and 80's.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Is right. There's all kinds being re-tasked to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania and Poland. US, Canada, France, UK, Italy and Sweden to name but a few have been shifting kit over there past few weeks.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Looks like it's kicking off out there:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27250541

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27458871

Let's hope he's wrong and that lessons were learned from that appalling conflict.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27829773

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I think Putin's game is far from over and that he believes the west has no appetite for real confrontation over this. He's got Crimea and he believes he can take more.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28810622

This could get very nasty.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So long as we don't do the insanity of guaranteeing a foreign countries boarders. That got us embroiled in two world wars. I hope we've learned that lesson. Though listening to the politicians rhetoric I'm not so sure.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28892525

So Russia warns a sovereign nation against taking action against a foreign convoy which has entered its territory without permission. I wonder if they'd accept that sort of threat if the situation were reversed...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28903829

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28990428

Thought the mere existence of the EU meant this sort of thing could never happen in Europe.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

That's what the Europhiles continue to spout. The reality is rather different. The EU has become a divisive, bureaucratic interfering autocratic and undemocratic organisation and we'd be well shot of it.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Nato is toothless because its member states army's are no more than a token gesture these days. when i was a member of the Armored corp we had 1200 tanks, now we have 50 if the proposed latest cuts hold firm and half of those are in Alberta Canada

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I have a feeling that will not happen now. Maybe Putin should have waited a little while longer... :erm:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28993873

The stakes are slowly being raised.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

As for the people protesting against NATO... STUPID PEOPLE, if was not for NATO they would be probably speaking Russian and they would not have the right to protest anyway.

I agree with peace though.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32913929

He clearly doesn't want his people to know the truth.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It's like being back in the Cold War days of Pravda.....:(

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Speaking of which:

Q:How do you ensure that your refrigerator is always full of food?

A:Plug it into Radio Moscow

and

You are general secretary of the central commitee and your train breaks down. Do you:

a) Have everyone taken outside and shot

b) Have everybody rehabilitated

c) Give orders for the curtains to be closed and pretend that you are moving

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The more I listen to Radio Sputnik the more I detect the influence of a power-crazed lunatic. It's devoid of anything remotely critical of Putin's leadership and increasingly concerned with blaming the west for just about everything under the sun. When you consider the sort of anti-govt. media coverage given to the administrations in the US and the UK, it's quite obvious that it's Putin's propaganda service and strictly controlled to avoid any hint of criticism.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Not sure if this is deserving of its own thread but anyway:

Odd that this should come not long after they were complaining about other Nato countries not bearing their fair share of the burden... :confused:

Wonder what Putin will think/do...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Seems rather unodd to me? This is probably exactly why they were upset. Europe has been cutting defence budgets presumably safe in the knowledge they can piggy back off America. It probably isn't going unnoticed by Americans that there is a lot of anti-Americanism in Europe as well.

If it were us I think we would be a little be peeved. I mean this line:

should embarrass Europe. Even if America has their own geopolitical interests at stake.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes I see what you mean. However nothing embarrasses Europe does it? Look around...

Some will say that it's the price the US pays for their position and influence but I agree that Europe ought to do more and we do more than anyone else I believe.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yeah and we're one of the nuclear powers along with France. To be honest I can see an argument for abolishing Trident if the money was spent on conventional forces and the intelligence services although I am generally in favour of renewal. If we believe NATO will hold as an alliance then it would be logical that different states specialise in specific areas. We seem to be pretty good at technological development, intelligence and such. Not sure how important a decent navy is these days....

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Arguing that spending can be diverted from the nuclear deterrent to conventional arms is to misunderstand what the deterrent is.

The deterrent is our final guarantee that no matter how outmatched our armed forces may be, no matter how great the risk of invasion, we retain the ability to inflict such damage on an aggressor as to dissuade them from attacking us.

We could not possibly spend enough money on our conventional armed forces so as to ensure they could not be outmatched on the battlefield.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

True, and the anti-nuclear campaigners don't seem to have a clue as to how the world does work, and not how it should work in their nuclear-free utopia.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

... and as such, the nuclear option is priceless...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The tensions surrounding Crimea seem to be mounting again:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37049313

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

And again...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46333976

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Ukranian boats have now been fired at, boarded and confiscated.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!