Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

Probabilities from JP Morgan:
Orderly Brexit 50%
Remaining in the EU 40%.
No-deal Brexit 10%
http://www.cityam.com/270188/jp-morg...er-cent-chance

This news has had a positive effect on UK-focused stocks.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-focuse...-fade-11572319

Pierre

05-12-2018 21:05

Re: Brexit

A 2nd referendum is inevitable.

A 2nd referendum followed immediately by a General Election, and chaos.

Buckle up.

Damien

05-12-2018 21:08

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35974000)

A 2nd referendum is inevitable.

A 2nd referendum followed immediately by a General Election, and chaos.

Buckle up.

I think we're getting the election first. No way can this continue, it's absurd.

jfman

05-12-2018 21:13

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35973997)

What would economists at a multi billion dollar investment bank know? :confused:

It’s pure guesswork.

---------- Post added at 21:10 ---------- Previous post was at 21:10 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35974000)

A 2nd referendum is inevitable.

A 2nd referendum followed immediately by a General Election, and chaos.

Buckle up.

Is there an echo in here?

---------- Post added at 21:13 ---------- Previous post was at 21:10 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35974001)

I think we're getting the election first. No way can this continue, it's absurd.

Could go either way but the problem with that order is both main parties have leave and remain elements trying to influence their position.

At least referendum first decides that once and for all, and if it’s a leave decision they can find positions that actually involve leaving. The electorate can decide a type of Brexit for once.

denphone

05-12-2018 21:18

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35974001)

I think we're getting the election first. No way can this continue, it's absurd.

Indeed its pretty untenable.

1andrew1

05-12-2018 21:23

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35974001)

I think we're getting the election first. No way can this continue, it's absurd.

I reckon:
- People's vote to decide Brexit question. Conservative Party can then ensure appropriate leader - leave or remain - is selected as future leader.
- General election called. Chances are next government it will be Conservative-led even if they don't get an outright majority.

nomadking

05-12-2018 21:30

Re: Brexit

Any 2nd vote should only be on a fully agreed and SIGNED OFF(initially just by the EU) set of proposals with the EU.

1andrew1

05-12-2018 21:35

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35974010)

Any 2nd vote should only be on a fully agreed and SIGNED OFF(initially just by the EU) set of proposals with the EU.

I would imagine the options as:
- Theresa's withdrawal deal
- No withdrawal deal
- Remain

But obviously other variations available too! Deciding the question could be a barrier to a People's Vote.

nomadking

05-12-2018 21:59

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35974013)

I would imagine the options as:
- Theresa's withdrawal deal
- No withdrawal deal
- Remain

Remain, but under what terms? With the withdrawal plan option, we have no idea how it will end up.

Damien

05-12-2018 22:26

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35974014)

Remain, but under what terms? With the withdrawal plan option, we have no idea how it will end up.

If the EU Court decides we can revoke article 50 unilaterally then I imagine it will have to be on the current terms since there is no mechanism for the EU to impose conditions. That said it would be fraught for a bit and we would need to fight our corner strongly....

Whole thing is a mess. I really wish there was a middle ground between the referendum and no deal Brexit that had a majority of people behind it. Both sides are playing all or nothing on this, pushing the country to the brink in the hope their side wins.

I don't know why the ERG are willing to risk Brexit because it's not perfect or why Remainers won't back a Norway option if it came to the table because they think they can overturn the referendum.

Worst of all nothing is getting done in this country for the last two years. It's all been consumed with Brexit and there is no end in sight.

1andrew1

05-12-2018 22:39

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35974016)

It's all been consumed with Brexit and there is no end in sight.

Well, a curve ball could be the Brexit vote being declared void so we could withdraw Article 50.

Quote:

It is “very likely” that the UK voted for Brexit because of illegal overspending by the Vote Leave campaign, according to an Oxford professor’s evidence to the High Court.
An exhaustive analysis of the campaign’s digital strategy concludes it reached “tens of millions of people” in its last crucial days, after its spending limit had been breached – enough to change the outcome.
The evidence will be put to the High Court on Friday, in a landmark case that is poised to rule within weeks whether the referendum result should be declared void because the law was broken.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8668771.html

Damien

05-12-2018 22:41

Re: Brexit

Independent is clickbait. It's not going to be found void even if they did breach spending rules.

Angua

05-12-2018 23:31

Re: Brexit

The PM was described by someone at work as being like a velcro covered tick. Everything sticks to her but nothing knocks her down. At least as far as her tenacious ability to cling on to her version of Brexit is concerned.

djfunkdup

05-12-2018 23:50

Re: Brexit

Yes another day goes by and the Brexit express has still not been derailed :)

Dave42

06-12-2018 00:41

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by djfunkdup (Post 35974023)

Yes another day goes by and the Brexit express has still not been derailed :)

just wait to deal get defeated on Tuesday ;)

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