Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Or have they?

From the same story, but in the Express How can they be carrying out negotiations, when they haven't agreed a format to have the negotiations?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I think everybody has got better things to concentrate on the moment. Little things, like staying alive.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

“Talks” is a great word.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Well stop keep making it up then, jfman! Job done.

The Fisheries Bill has already passed Parliament, the rest will be in the government's proposals that are part of these negotiations. The government knows exactly what it wants and the degree to which it is prepared to compromise. In the end, it's all about quotas, and given we are on the front foot on this one, why is this so complicated to your mind? Who said we would agree to unregulated fishing?

Do you take weeks to weigh up whether it's safe to cross the road? Of course not, so let's get real about the likelihood of getting decisions made on these matters in a straight forward and efficient manner.

It may be true to say that the last three meetings have not taken place, but papers are being passed back and forth, which may be sufficient for now, until a meeting is required to thrash out any sticking points.

The reason it was important for me to point out who would lose more if tariffs were applied was to remove the lead curtain from your eyes that prevents you from seeing that the EU does indeed want a trade deal with no tariffs as it is in their best interests.. It annoys them to death that they cannot hold us over a barrel on other matters given that we just want a straight forward deal.

Sometimes I think you can't see the wood for the trees, jfman.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Well, 53% of our imports will suddenly become more expensive as they come from the EU while 3-4% of the EUs imports will become more expensive as they come from the UK.

Of course the money goes in to the respective government pockets but it's the importing customer who eventually pays

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You assume that the imposition of tariffs by the EU would mean that we would still want to have those goods from the EU. What if we could get the same goods from the US, cheaper and with no tariffs?

I don't know the answer to this, but if we are making more from imposing tariffs on the EU, what's to stop us using that money to reduce nullify any price increase to the consumer?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Running the fifth, sixth or seventh (I lose track) biggest economy is somewhat more complex than crossing the road. The fact you view these as equitable simply proves my point that you only have a simplistic understanding of Government.

It may not be sufficient. You are simply assuming as such because it suits your ludicrous contention that Government can continue unaffected by Coronavirus.

Without knowing what the tariffs are and quantity of goods moving in each direction post Coronavirus it’s simply impossible for you to offer anything other than speculation as to who would lose out more by imposing tariffs. Again, your simplistic analysis ignores the associated supply chains - further goods and services, further people in employment and further tax revenues for Government. It’s not as straightforward as where the trade deficit lies.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Ahem! Who's speculating, exactly? The government still says it wants a deal by the end of the year. You are speculating when you say it's not long enough. My 'crossing the road' quip was drawing attention to the big deal you make of everything and then claim it can't be done. You have form on this where the EU is concerned. Look over all your negative Brexit poxts! Were you ever right?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I was right about the fact we wouldn’t leave in March and October and that the public would, through a further general election or a referendum have to endorse Brexit a further time. That happened.

You can try to regurgitate the same old tired debates Old Boy - and I’m entitled to view Brexit as a bad idea. A bad idea the public voted for doesn’t make it any less a bad idea. However that is the past and we’ve all (apart from you seemingly) moved into.

The Government does want a deal by the end of the year. I’d like a deal by the end of the year. You are equating that with what we should do if there isn’t, regardless of how close the negotiations are to success. With is a very flawed comparison.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Are you two married?

You argue like you are :D

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If there's no FTA, the EU will have to impose their WTO MFN rate on our exports to them and we will have to impose our WTO MFN rate on imports from them, the same as we do with the US now. To have no tariffs for imports from the US or anywhere else, we need an FTA otherwise the MFN rate needs to be used.

In a lot of cases, we could 'shop around' for a cheaper deal if the cost plus duty is less than an import from the EU but this is 53% of our imports. The burden is huge.

We certainly could subsidise imports if we wanted. However, these would need to apply across the board and not just imports from the EU. If we decide that only certain countries imports are subsidised then WTO rules step in and our exports to countries not in the subsidy list can get slammed for additional duties (countervailing duties)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

:shocked: Looks like they have:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52208591
UK 'committed to post-Brexit trade deadline'

The chancellor is also asked whether it is a good time for the UK to leave the EU if the economy is going to be so damaged by the pandemic.
Rishi Sunak says: "We have left the European Union, that has happened, we are now working on the final terms of trading arrangements. That work is carrying on."
He says negotiating teams spoke earlier this week and would hold more talks this month and in May.
"We remain committed to the timeline for concluding talks and negotiations, albeit over video conference rather than in person," he adds.



Still not convinced?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Well, as I posted earlier They haven’t even agreed how they will video-conference, so, no...

The discussions next week are to discuss a timetable for talks in April and May - so it’s "talks about talks", not actual negotiations.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

No. To say now we're open to an extension virtually guarantees an extension and removes the sense of urgency that an optional extension is supposed to provide.

On top of that the messaging around any extension will need to be carefully planned. Considering the Government is asking the vast majority of people to stay at home, and the Coronavirus response requires compliance.

While I'm sure the vast majority of people would be reasonable it only takes a handful of morons whose nationalism tells them this is a betrayal to encourage civil disobedience or worse.

We've got folk setting fire to mobile telecoms infrastructure, mugging nurses and spitting at police officers saying they have Coronavirus. People are already anxious. If the Government are to request an extension, or agree to an EU request for one, I'm certain the revelation won't be because some hack threw it into a press conference to Rishi Sunak.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

They are currently at the document-exchanging stage. The government is still commited to the end of the year as things stand. Everything else is speculation.

---------- Post added at 18:17 ---------- Previous post was at 18:15 ----------

Still speculating against the government, I see. :rolleyes:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Speculating for the Government Old Boy. You seem to, unfortunately, be stuck in the toxic rhetoric of Brexit. Which is a shame really - the way it seems to permeate every single post you make. It is unnecessarily divisive. Brexit is done. The national interest is the national interest for everyone - those who voted remain and those who voted leave.

You clearly know very little about Government if you think such a major policy shift would be announced at half five on a Wednesday night by a Cabinet Minister who is neither the PM, Foreign Secretary or Minister for International Trade for whom the policy would cross cut their Ministerial portfolios.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I rarely say this, but it’s well worth saying now: I agree with Jfman wholeheartedly on this point.

An extension to the transition would be a very significant move, following a decision taken by the PM and the EU representatives, and not flagged in advance for all sorts of reasons. It certainly isn’t going to be announced in a public health crisis press conference by a deputy while the Prime Minister is getting over a life-threatening infection in hospital.

An extension is not going to happen, right up to the moment that it is. At which point it will be announced on Boris Johnson’s terms. I believe the government negotiators will continue to work on the assumption that the original deadline stands, but informal contact with the EU on the extension issue will have been made. I also believe that when the extension is announced it will amount to 6-9 months.

There’s almost certainly going to be an extension because no government in Europe presently has the resources to meet the original deadline with a good trade deal in place. This is not a betrayal, it is just realpolitik, caused by the small matter of the worst global pandemic for a century.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

And I've agreed with a lot of Chris recent input on this. Indeed - the terms of how an extension got announced could be anything such as the EU asking the UK to agree to one in order to give Boris favourable optics. In the EU their respective populations are probably less interested in this, and it's an easy sell for them.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I would be surprised if there isn't an extension. There just isn't the appetite or time for people to focus on the next part of the agreement yet and the political cover is there too because aside from a few diehards I doubt anyone would be upset if it got delayed so the world can focus on the pandemic.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If an extention is deemed necessary then so be it but Brexit isn't done until we conclude the transition.
Brexit is still very much "in progress".

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Talk about twisting it, when you are in complete denial about the government's position on this. They have said consistently there will be no extension. The only reason they have failed to deliver on such promises in the past is because the House of Commons did all it could in various attempts to ensure Brexit did not happen.

That barrier is no longer there. It's just between the Government and the EU now.

While I cannot say absolutely for certain that the trade agreement will be done by the end of the year, what you keep doing is contradicting what the government say, with just your own specious arguments to justify your comments. You have no evidence whatsoever to claim the government is painting a false picture of when we will be free of EU rules. It's pure speculation. Nothing more, nothing less. So pardon me for suggesting that your claim to speak for the government is laughable.

As I said before, there are separate teams working on trade deals that are not being diverted by the coronavirus emergency. It is possible to do more than one thing at a time, you know. Boris is not a one-trick pony, as you will come to see.

Why do you keep harping on that Brexit is done? What are you trying to prove? Yes, we've left the EU, but we are still subject to its rules. I am very clear that what we are talking about now is negotiating a no tariff trade deal with the EU, as well as addressing all the regulatory provisions that need to be put in place to accommodate the new arrangements, at the same time as we negotiate a trade deal with the US and other countries. Yes, that means we do more than one thing at a time.

As for me being 'unnecessarily divisive', all I'm doing is supporting the government line on Brexit and the new trade deals we wish to negotiate. You are the one questioning everything, not me!

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I'm fully aware of the Government's stated position, and as Chris notes this will be the stated position right up until it isn't. That's how poisonous our political discourse has become in recent times - Government can't be seen to be thinking without being accused of a 'u-turn', 'a betrayal' or similar. Thus it finds it easier to trot out a line until it decides to adopt another one.

At no point have I ever claimed to speak for the Government - I'm simply pointing out that you clearly haven't been following politics very closely if you think that such a major policy announcement would come out, unexpected and uncontrolled, at half 5 on a Wednesday.

Special Advisers and communications teams aren't paid handsomely for such a major policy change to come out so haphazardly.

As before - you clearly fail to understand the machine that is the Civil Service if you think that none of the people or priorities cross cut between Coronavirus response and future trading relationship with the EU.

Time limited, and importantly by our own agreement.

Supporting the Government line unquestionably doesn't mean you aren't stoking division.

I recognise that you aren't questioning what you are being spoon fed Old Boy, but I can't control your inability to engage in critical analysis of events.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If he's just trotting out the Government line, ad nauseum, then he's not paying attention to the thousands of political u-turns (Brexit dates being an example) but across many policies by both Conservative and Labour Governments over the decades.

If the justification for 'there won't be a policy change' is the fact they are still using the same line then it's observably no justification at all.

Although I agree - the arguments have been done to death.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You have never claimed to speak for the government. So what did you mean in post #2816?

This claim of yours that the government wouldn't trot out a major change to the government's position in the coronavirus scenario is of course correct, probably. However, one thing even you cannot deny is that it is the government's position that there will be no extension. I'm not concerned at all by any posts that question whether that is even possible, but your comments state categorically that it will not happen. I think I am perfectly justified to challenge you on that, because it is not based on evidence.

Of course I understand that the coronavirus is sapping the resources of politicians and the civil service. However, the government has made clear that the team dealing with trade deals are not involved in the coronavirus issues.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

On that, we can most certainly agree!

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You said I was speculating against the Government. I'm simply not. Saying you think they should do something, and would be supportive if they did, is a positive move. Back in the day when politics wasn't polarised and compromise was quite natural.

It's absolutely correct.

I understand that some of the more right wing on this forum oppose discussion on certain topics, but it's an absolutely dangerous step in the fascist direction if you simply cannot query a Government policy being viable in the midst of what is likely to be the biggest global economic slump since the Great Depression.

You simply don't understand it at all.

Governments will always trot out such lines because they provide reassurance when the public requires it. Tens of thousands of people are working on both in the background. Again, implementing a trade deal is much wider than negotiating one - one that will affect almost every Civil Service department.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

My God, jfman! Nobody minds a debate, and questions being put forward about deliverability. But what gets my goat is those who simply say that stuff can't be done. It can.

Anyway, you will absolutely contradict everything I say on this subject, so I'm going to leave it there. I think people on this forum are sick and tired of this deliberately contrived bickering. I think everyone understands our respective positions on this. Time to give them a much deserved break.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I've said I'd absolutely welcome a trade deal by the end of the year if it was possible, only that we shouldn't walk away for a short period - 365 days - in our economic interest following the inevitable Coronavirus shock if it wasn't.

I fail to understand why you find it so objectionable to the extent you wouldn't even consider it a reasonable proposition in difficult circumstances.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I do not disagree with that. Where did I put my balloons?

I just do not believe that an extension is inevitable, as you appear to, judging by everything you said.

Thank you for your help in bringing this matter to a close.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

It's going to be interesting what happens after the virus in terms of trade though.

There will be a big push to produce things domestically. Macron has said France will look to boost it's internal production capability and I imagine other countries will feel the same. The single market will likely decline.

But this will also be an issue here too because in any trade deals we're looking to make there will be higher domestic pressure not to give away anything that might inhibit our own producers. I.E Farmers were worried what we might concede to the Americans - that's less likely to happen too.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52414155

Good. This strongly suggests that the UK delegation is sticking to its lines.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

What lines?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

That sounds like a fairly thin lawyer's excuse to me. Even in the absence of a formal legal text, I highly doubt that the EU does not by now know in some detail what the UK's position on fisheries is.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

The red lines....

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

As always your confidence in the British Government far exceeds mine. :)

I suspect we aren't making progress because the Government is too busy dealing with Coronavirus and we know the deadline is completely arbitrary and will be extended.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Don't you start! We are pretty much in agreement on this!

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

It's more your debating style.

---------- Post added at 18:52 ---------- Previous post was at 18:48 ----------

There's obviously more to fisheries than simply "they're our fish" there's a limited supply and they move. Fish also have a monetary value, especially fresh fish, so it's a reasonable trading chip for us to use access to get something we want in return (and vice versa).

That's the whole notion of international trade. It might not be as straightforward as money = goods but it's always going to be a thing for as long as we share the same sea.

Level playing field is another area where actually we probably agree with the EU. Would we want German subsidised industry to flood our markets with their goods? Of course not. Why would the EU settle for us not agreeing to state aid rules?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If the Germans subsidise their industry wouldn't that be breaking EU rules?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

It's a hypothetical question, but you are right that's the point of the EU rules to stop someone from doing so. We wouldn't want it, they wouldn't want it either.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

For me, this is the telling part of the press conference https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9482171.html

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If by totemic you mean people place an absolutely irrational value or meaning to them, then absolutely yes I'm in agreement.

While we have clearly defined borders within it, we fundamentally share or have a stake in it and the sustainability of fishing stocks.

Nor would we want the EU to be more competitive than our own industry - it's fairly fundamental to any international trade. It doesn't make the EU the "big bad guy"; indeed if we take that view then India, Japan, China and the USA will all be the same in negotiations due to relative economic strength.

Politically that's straightforward, even done. However economically that can't be the case for as long as trade (and the EU) exists.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

But that would mean we have to comply with EU rules, I don't think they've fully grasped what leaving means.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

All trade deals require rules, that’s what makes it a “deal”. There are rules and a framework in place for both sides to adhere to.

If we aren’t willing to be bound by rules established by ourselves as a sovereign nation within these agreements then yes, we probably should just walk away and forget international trade at all with anyone.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

They do and this is why, they swim by flexing their bodies and tail back and forth. Fish stretch or expand their muscles on one side of their body, while relaxing the muscles on the other side. This motion moves them forward through the water. Fish use their back fin, called the caudal fin, to help push them through the water.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I think you are still looking at this as if we were somehow obligated or bound to the EU. From January next year, we will be an independent nation and we don't have to let any foreign country fish within our territorial waters. This isn't up for negotiation. It's international law. If the EU don't like it, they can do one. Our trade will simply migrate towards the US if the EU don't get their acts together soon.

I don't think Barnier and his lot have actually smelt the coffee yet. They need to step away from their self righteous platform and start to get real about negotiating a trade deal. Yes, a trade deal, not BRINO, which still seems to be their approach to these discussions.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You fail to have grasped that fish migrate across territorial waters, and unsustainable fishing by either side ends up with everyone losing.

Of course we aren't obliged to do anything for the EU, however we are under obligation to our fishing communities to ensure that fishing in the sea is done in a sustainable way.

Equally, we have businesses in supply chains that would like fresh fish found in EU waters more than ours - therefore it's in both our interests to get fresh fish to our shores as quickly as possible rather than import it from the EU. This makes the negotiation very important.

Someone hasn't woke up and smelt coffee but I doubt it is the EU, our Government are sleeping at the wheel here and an extension inevitable.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

All the government sources are still saying there will be no extension, jfman. I understand that the need for an extension is your personal view as you keep repeating it, but that doesn't mean the government will do it. In fact, they've categorically denied that they would do so, pointing out that the electorate have made it clear that people just want this to be over.

As far as fishing is concerned, whatever did we do before we joined the EU? We will not be giving away our fish stocks again and UK fishermen have been promised that they will get back their fishing rights next year.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

We are perfectly capable of setting our own limits for UK waters. How much of any overfishing in UK and non-UK waters is down to other EU countries(eg Spain). I doubt we are looking to completely ban EU fleets, just to be the ones that decide and control that, just as the EU would be able to decide and control fishing in EU waters.


Either EU fishing rights are such a huge benefit for them, or the EU are just being awkward.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Yes and at risk of repeating myself the Government saying something vs the Government delivering it is two wildly different things.

At no time, in any referendum or general election, has a Government been given a mandate to end the transition agreement on 31st December at all costs.

A mandate was for leaving on 31st January. Johnson's Government delivered.

Can UK fishermen not fish in our waters? I'm unsure the relevance of 50 year old practice in the fishing industry, but it's obvious to me (as a non-fisherman) that in the limited space that is the North Sea an agreement on sustainable fishing is desirable.

Otherwise unregulated and uncontrolled capitalism does what it does best - seeks short terms gains against long term sustainability. It's undesirable to have no fish at all - I'm sure even you would agree that's obvious.

---------- Post added at 19:49 ---------- Previous post was at 19:44 ----------

You are missing the point of an agreement. We both agree mutually beneficial terms and the other party is committed to do their bit to enforce their side.

Whether the EU or the UK are a net beneficiary on the single issue of fisheries is frankly an irrelevance. It is nationalist flag waving nonsense against the backdrop of a much larger trade agreement.

I'm sure the City of London would consider access to the EU financial sector much more important than whether we have a net loss of a few hundred million pounds per year in fish to the EU. Also I'm sure the Treasury would find their revenues would benefit overall.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Nothing whatsoever stopping the UK being part of the pre-existing organisation, just as the EU is now?

The EU has similar arrangements for fishing in other parts of the non-EU world. If the EU can and DOES manage to deal with other countries and areas in a reasonable way, why can't it do the same for the UK?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

That may be a solution, but as with anything in trade there is give and take - so what would be the consequences elsewhere in trade terms?

You claim the EU is being unreasonable but can't actually demonstrate it. Indeed, would the UK wish to be a signatory to these agreements if the EU has a say in developing the terms?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I said OR are they simply being unreasonable. Either fishing rights are such a huge benefit they override any other trade aspect OR they are simply being unreasonable. Either the UK has a huge bargaining chip, OR the EU are simply being unreasonable. The EU treats fishing rights as separate from any other possible trade agreement with the rest of the world, so why not with the UK?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Because the EU has to have an agreement for the Mediterranean but doesn't have a trade agreements with all of the countries who can fish in it.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

It really wasn't clear to me.

It's obvious everyone wants fresh fish, and fresh fish holds value. So UK fishermen in EU territorial waters (and vice versa) has some net monetary value based on whatever fish it is.

Some fish are found more in our waters, some in theirs. Therefore an agreement from both sides is desirable from where I'm sitting. I don't see why it's any more an objectionable part of the discussion any more than farming, wider manufacturing or the service sector.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

But as with any other sector, the UK sets rules for the UK, and the EU sets rules for the EU.


Agreements on sustainability of fishing stocks is not subject to fishing rights.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Seph sometimes I read your posts and I know deep down we aren't a million miles apart here.

UK-EU trade is a combined £600bn a year, fish being a tiny fraction of that.

---------- Post added at 20:46 ---------- Previous post was at 20:44 ----------

The sustainability of fishing in a shared sea requires an agreement by both sides. I don't see how sustainability and fishing rights can be kept separate for as long as the fish don't recognise borders.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

No preconditions demanded by the EU for those and no links to trade agreements.


Often I wonder why I bother with actually researching this sort of stuff, when it gets repeatedly ignored.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

It's ignored because it's irrelevant to the EU stance that it wants it included in a trade deal. Everyone in a deal wants to tie in their strongest positions to those they are weakest on, to achieve a balance in the middle. That's negotiations day in day out between people, businesses and countries.

It's not the "big bad EU". It's capitalism 101.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I'm going to respectfully bow out, Seph. :)

I don't view agreeing to something as yielding, but we actually agree on the main points as we want the best deal for us.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Where do I start? OK, I'll keep it brief as I know you are playing a game here.

My point on your argument for an extension of the withdrawal agreement is that the government is still insisting there will not be one. As usual, you are simply saying there will be an extension with absolutely nothing to back up your claim. For that reason, you would be well advised to state your reservations rather than explicitly state that an extension will be requested. I say this to spare you embarrassment if it doesn't happen at the end of the year, as I believe to be the case.

What's all this about limited space in the North Sea? What a load of codswallop :rofl:

Look, whether some fish like to swim on the left hand side or the right hand side is irrelevant. Our fishermen want their territory back to fish in, end of. If the Europeans have some fish that we want and vice versa, there is this thing called trade.

I am sure that neither side wants to over-fish, jfman, because to do so will lead to smaller catches in the future.

My reference to what was happening prior to our EU days was simply making the case that we did not need a European agreement then to fish in our own waters and we don't need one now.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Old Boy you've clearly not been paying attention, presumably because nationalist fever has you obsessing over fish. Yes, fish is part of trade - I've been stating this for some time now that's why it's rational for the EU to want it in a trade agreement.

I've stated my reasoning on a number of occasions now - that the Civil Service is focused on Coronavirus and we will not be in a position to implement the range of policies across numerous Departments that having no agreement with the EU would necessitate on 1 January 2021. A point readily accepted by others on the forum on both sides of the Brexit debate.

Even the great Dominic Cummings is finding himself as a scientific adviser on SAGE and as wonderful as he is I'm sure that takes it toll and is a distraction from the EU negotiations that I'm sure he would want to have his finger on the pulse of.

No need to spare my embarrassment Old Boy - I'm 100% certain that come 1 January 2021 we will either have an agreement with the EU or be in an extension period. Only a tiny minority, somewhat irrationally, would want to throw our economy into further turmoil all to avoid a minor technical extension to continue trade on current terms while we do everything we can to get Coronavirus, and future trade, right for the good of this country.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

The arrogance of this statement is breathtaking. Your hatred for the EU distorts your definition what constitutes a reasonable trading position. Each side will start out from their respective positions of strength and then after a long period of negotiation, agree on a compromise.

Each side will trade ground based on concessions received in other areas. Don't forget, the EU is the much larger entity so will have more ability to force concessions on our part.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Or, as has been said many times, we could just walk away.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Oh, I have been paying attention, jfman - have you? I've already made the point that there is a separate team dealing with the EU and they are not also involved in the health emergency.

I have never said that fish is not part of trade, I said our fishing rights are not for the trade agreement.

As for the bit that I've emboldened in your post, I think you are pretty safe in saying that as I cannot think of a third alternative! However, the most likely position will be that the Withdrawal Agreement will end on the due date.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

The third being walking away without any deal or extension?

You completely underestimate the task of aligning the UK to a no trade deal/no extension scenario if you think that it's as simple as one team in EU negotiations walking away. The implications for the Home Office, HMRC, Department for the Environment and Rural Affairs and the devolved administrations is huge. Yes, those departments are all being stretched due to Coronavirus and no, it's not as simple for them as they have extra people hanging around to work on Coronavirus with no implications for staff who were moved into Brexit related roles.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You completely underestimate that a provision for a no trade deal/no extension scenario exists. That would then suggest that it would be a matter of agree a deal at all costs because we haven't thought of anything else if we can't do one.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I fail to see that I'm underestimating that such a provision exists - indeed I acknowledge the existence of it in the very post you are quoting.

Or of course extend, rather than negotiate a bad deal under pressure or unnecessarily compound the economic misery that comes out of Coronavirus by resorting to WTO rules.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I was hoping you would say that!

Yes, we agree!!! 😂

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Gove up at the Brexit committee today.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...asing-lockdown

Of course he’d not want to wilfully mislead Parliament. :)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Of course not.

I'm sure they'd still like to stick to the timetable. The high-heid-yins of our present administration are all true believers, which is why so many people voted for them. So when the near-inevitable extension comes, there's no need to start fulminating as we (rightly, IMO) did so on the day Teresa May stood up and told parliament it was not possible for us to leave the EU on 29 March last year.

Gove can't mislead parliament and he knows full well there is a very substantial risk that the civil service's reduced capacity due to coronavirus will mean that when 'substantial progress' hasn't been made by June, there's not a snowball's chance in hell that he can reasonably blame that on EU intransigence.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Oh, I know the EU is being intransigent - don't get me wrong. I just don't think they can plausibly be apportioned enough of the blame come June for HMG to walk away.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

So true.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Robert Frost and his team may be at work, though Wikipedia says the US poet died in 1963. :D Boris Johnson is putting his money on David Frost. ;)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Quite apposite... Also one for our current COVID-19 situation

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If there's any backing down to be done, it needs to be by the EU. They are not treating us as an independent nation and we cannot give in to that.

I doubt that the government could survive capitulating to the EU in this way. Better to have a 'no deal'. US, here we come!

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9486261.html

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Yes, I picked that up after making my last comment on this, which was based on the government's previous statement.

However, given the distinct lack of constructive action and the prevarication on the EU side, I guess it doesn't make sense to have all those talented people twiddling their thumbs!

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Are you the Govemeister’s SpAd? :D

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

It's just common sense. I claim no credit.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Wise move... ;)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I'm confused!
https://orr.gov.uk/rail/health-and-s...ssed-at-danger

So is Old Boy Gove's signal passed at danger? :D

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

SPAD ≠ SpAd ;)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Have you just eaten a code book, Hugh? :scratch:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Haven’t had to do that since Teufelsberg in ‘79... :D