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If rejected the Govt. would have to renegotiate or come up with a better plan. It wouldn't automatically mean the end of your beloved Brexit. |
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Do you seriously expect that we can get a better deal than Theresa gets when she is pushing the boundaries already? Really? ---------- Post added at 23:03 ---------- Previous post was at 23:01 ---------- Quote:
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Brexit news: Three more ministers set to quit as Theresa May faces fresh turmoil
EXCLUSIVE: Sources say three ministers are in “advanced talks” to follow his lead and plunge Theresa May’s government into fresh turmoil https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...sters-13566895 Four UK ministers on verge of quitting, EU rejects latest plan - Sunday Times https://uk.reuters.com/article/brita...XL0UM?rpc=401& |
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The rightwing pressure group the TaxPayers’ Alliance has conceded that it illegally sacked the whistleblower Shahmir Sanni for revealing unlawful overspending in the Brexit referendum campaign, in a case that could have a major impact on how lobbyists are described in the media.
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I think people today will be facing up to a couple of Brexit realities:
1. There is no strong and stable government in place at the moment and things are likely to worsen. It really is a case of Carry on Brexit. :D https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...sters-13566895 2. The EU has likely rejected May's proposal for the Irish backstop https://news.sky.com/story/rejection...-plan-11551130 As a reminder, on 17 July 2016, John Redwood told us "Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy - the UK holds most of the cards in any negotiation." :dunce: 3. There are no great trade deals out there which we as a non-EU country can readily take advantage of. David Davis's promises otherwise have been proven to be a sham at worst or daydreaming at best. As a reminder, on 14 July 2016, he said "I would expect the new Prime Minister on 9 September to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals...I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months." :dozey: |
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Don’t forget he also said
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JFI: Just out in the last few days, Economy has grown by 0.6% !!! Remember the democracy abusers, who want a second referendum to stop the result of the first, said the UK would be in a recession right after a leave result. I have been able to buy and move in to a new house, on a nice Cul-de-sac - my take home pay has increased and im in the same role, so all this bullshit about all the UK is suffering primarily because of Brexit, is utter bollocks. |
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The choice is between a deal and what has become affectionately known as a 'hard Brexit'. This is not going to change. |
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I'm talking about Europe as proximity is important http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/0...ters-in-trade/ |
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Proximity is convenient, but distance is not the barrier it once was. |
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Regarding proximity, it's still key. The standard analysis for goods is that each doubling of distance with a trading partner halves trade between them. A survey of Canadian services exports found that each one per cent increase in distance with a trading partner reduced trade by a third of one per cent. https://www.nber.org/papers/w17630 The International Monetary Fund, which generated some estimates for the UK, found that the effect of distances on services trade was even higher than for goods. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...16/cr16169.pdf |
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New Zealand, Brazil, Australia to name another three. In fact there aren’t that many that do. http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...nts/#_in-place |
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Look - there are two camps here.
1/ Those who favour the economic arguments and the lower risk in that respect of remaining in the EU. 2/ Those who place sovereignty above being regulated by the EU. This faction is further spurred by the EU’s attitude to negotiations. Add to that mix an incompetent guvmin and we get to the ridiculous situation where even prominent Leavers are opining that remaining is better than the current TB deal. The UK is in real turmoil and much of the future is in Parliament’s hands. With Leave/Remain now united in rejecting TB’s folly, the crisis will only deepen. However, the best bet, and it is a gamble, would be for a new PM to call the EU’s bluff, go for no deal and see if the EU panic. |
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Leave, just walk away, like you threatened at the very beginning. See how quickly things would get sorted out. I think very quickly. |
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Just leave as the referendum demands. THEN talk a trade deal. Anything else is a sell out.
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it not them that fall of cliff edge it us yes they lose a bit but we lose much more it not them that be only one in world with 0 trade deals it us and there is countries all ready objecting to our WTO terms it not them that have a medicine shortage it us ect |
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Still banging the Project fear drum I see Dave..... :rolleyes:
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If we feel that the proposed deal TM has negotiated is not good for the UK, then certainly, we go for the full monty. But it is too early to judge now. Some of the stuff people are complaining about TM has already said no PM would agree to. We shouldn't be losing our nerve at this stage in particular. For God's sake, let the woman see what she can do before we criticise her. For the umpteenth time, this is a negotiation! All these 'noises off' are a distraction and playing into Barnier's hands. |
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Cabinet ministers voiced doubts at PM's preferred Brexit plan from the start.
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The country needs to be able to make an informed consent: the very basis of our Democracy. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/statu...15908387618816 Quote:
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Sigh. The country made their informed consent in June 2016!!! :rolleyes:
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The UK Government should have negotiated with the EU without the disadvantageous time pressure of Article 50 which favours the hand of the EU then offered the country the two choices. |
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If the exit deal is deliberately designed to inform the referendum debate, then the only incentive is for the exit deal to be bad, in order to influence the result to remain. The only way to fairly hold the referendum was the way it was actually held: without a deal on the table, so the argument could be settled on points of principle and a long-term view of where the U.K. sees itself in the world, not on the grubby details of any political deal. That, also, is why *there*will*not*be*a*second*referendum* - the debate was held, and the vote was cast, *without* being unduly influenced by a political circus that, 20 years from now, will have thoroughly faded from memory. |
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It was quite simple.
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Do we have a deal?
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The rest of your post is based on this one weak assumption. There are ways to ensure these things are done fairly. |
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Is it just the minority of democracy abusers who paraded around London a few weeks ago, thinking throwing their toys out their pram one more time, will get them another referendum? :rolleyes: |
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The EU will never agree a deal with us during the Article 50 period unless it's on their own terms. 2 years have proved this. Article 50 had to be served because otherwise the EU wouldn't even have looked at us in a potential Brexit context.
The difference between then and now is that what I said above was not obvious to most hopeful Leavers and certainly wasn't in the mind of most Remainers. One MP, David Gauke, came out publicly before the Referendum to explain why he was voting Remain - it was the uncertainties and unknowns we would be in for. For all that might have been, the EU has shown itself to be perfidious and nasty. That's enough reason to leave; were we now to rescind Article 50, we'll be the laughing stock with far less influence than we previously thought we had. Also we can't allow that perfidious Varadkar to be the tail that wags the dog, albeit a currently stupid dog. If the Customs Union exit rules are to be governed by the ECJ, we'll never be able to leave because the ECJ interprets everything according to the extant treaties which don't allow what we want in terms of sovereignty. SHort of a treaty that varies the current rules, no deal would be best. |
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Remainers didn't like that though which led to court cases, judicial decisions etc that left the EU in the driving seat. |
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Corbyn last Friday: "We can't stop Brexit now." Keir Starmer TODAY: "Brexit can be stopped." :rolleyes: ---------- Post added at 15:20 ---------- Previous post was at 15:16 ---------- Quote:
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Both parties are hopelessly divided sadly.
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The way you called it, after the referendum result - we'd all be in a recession by now and house prices would collapse - they have been never higher thanks. P.S Economy is up by 0.6% too. This is all despite Brexit being around the corner!!! Roll on 29th March 2019 when we will be free of the corruption and con job EU membership. :p: |
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longing for the day labour have a decent leader again and Corbyn gone for good |
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The comedy continues:
British Airways to become SPANISH: Firm in bid to change nationality after Brexit |
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They are a crap Airline - good riddance.
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Leave is now enshrined in to law - we leave on 29th March 2019, with or without a deal. There will be no Second Referendum. |
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Wait - Has Papa Smurf's favourite red-top the Daily Express now woken up to what Brexit means? |
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I see that other airlines are doing similar things - Easyjet becoming an EU based company and potential withdrawing of voting rights for non-EU based shareholders of Ryanair, making it an EU based company by default. Sources; Easyjet - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...al-brexit-risk Ryanair - https://investor.ryanair.com/brexit/ |
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We may not have agreed on many things over the years, but on this we did. |
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The best laid plans.... |
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BA is poor but the problem is they do have Heathrow as their base which means that they will have the majority of direct long haul flights from the UK and have a price advantage too. It's a shame because you do want the flag carrier of Britain to be very good.
Anyway BA have said they're not becoming a Spanish company. |
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Obviously we haven’t seen TMs deal, but it looks like it’s not Brexit. It looks like staying in the CU, which is not Brexit.
It seems that the issue is the N.I. Border. It’s an issue, but kicking the can down the road and trapping the U.K. within the EU is not the answer. We must leave the EU and negotiate from outside the EU, it may cause a bit of pain around the N.I. Border but it will focus the minds to sort it out quickly. |
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Remember that the ‘bit of pain’ around the Irish border subverts the democratic will of the people of Northern Ireland who voted for the Good Friday Agreement with a 71.1% yes vote.
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Any agreement to retain the customs union will only last for the implementation period, because as I keep saying, we cannot make our own trade deals while that remains in place. |
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Of course, China, the USA and Brazil need us more than we need them. They just need to know their place. :p:
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That is the issue. That’s why we have to come out and negotiate a solution to N.I. From outside the EU. It is the only way to deliver Brexit. ---------- Post added at 20:51 ---------- Previous post was at 20:50 ---------- Quote:
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The concern is that a re-imposition of these could lead to the Troubles flaring up again, and since we lost 3,600 in the previous Troubles, no one (sensible) wants that. As Jonathan Powell, the UK’s GFA chief negotiator put it "“Having a soft border was crucial because that meant the issue of identity was really removed from the table. You could live in Northern Ireland all your life and be Irish (have an Irish passport, never notice there was a border), or you could be British, or you could be both. If you have a hard border and we go back to the concrete blocks on small roads and the border point crossings and all that, then the identity issue is reopened.” I don’t think people living in mainland Britain really understand how much life has changed in NI because of the GFA. |
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When I see naive comments such as "the remainers invented the Irish border issue - it's a non-issue", I do worry. Hopefully, those behind the wheel understand things a bit better. |
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As a regular visitor to N.I. Since before the troubles ended I have indeed seen how things have improved. On the surface at least, don’t kid yourself if you think it’s all been peace and harmony for the last 20years. Far from it.
That said, no one wants to see a border, and I doubt there would be one. But I believe it would be achieved quicker if there was a bit more stick and less carrot and that would be if we are out of the EU when talks start |
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North/South Cooperation 127. Strand two of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement established the North/South Ministerial Council which brings together ministers from both governments “to develop consultation, co-operation and action” on an all-island and cross-border basis. The Council agreed six areas of cooperation under the Agreement; agriculture, education, environment, health, tourism and transport. It is also responsible for six all-island implementation bodies which manage inland waterways, sea loughs and lighthouses, language, trade, food safety and the distribution of EU funds. 128.The Government acknowledged that other fora of collaboration have since developed, such as the Single Electricity Market, policing exchanges and the all-island hosting of sporting events. We heard that cross-border cooperation has been important for building trust and improving infrastructure in the border regions. In these areas, cross-border connections have become a means of overcoming the dual challenges of underdevelopment and geographical peripherality from Dublin and Belfast. The Northern Ireland Local Government Association told us that border councils rely on the free-flowing movement of “goods, workers, shoppers and visitors” from an economic hinterland which extends into Ireland. Paragraphs 128 to 133 set out two case studies on cross-border cooperation. In §128 the bit that I have italicized is presumably what you rely upon in asserting that the border must stay open in terms of the GFA. No doubt, Varadkar is interpreting this as a means of protecting Ireland's economic interests. Remainers here have claimed in the name of the GFA that peace on that island depends on open borders. This section of the GFA is all about collaboration and cooperation, not terrorism. If it is important to cooperate and collaborate between the two parts of the island, it is not for the EU to dictate to us on how that should be done. |
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In the early Eighties, I used to visit the "bandit" country on behalf of HM Government and we had to drive down to Bessbrook and get a Army Air Corp helicopter into Crossmaglen as it was considered too dangerous to drive to the border. That is how much it has changed since the Troubles ... |
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We are saying the issue was invented by remainers as a barrier to Brexit because there are alternatives to the hard border. The vast majority of trade between NI and Ireland will still be as it is now - there is a very small percentage that will need additional checks post Brexit. The UK has put forward a number of solutions, all of which appear to have been rejected out of hand by the EU. If they wanted to resolve this matter, they could. If the EU don't want a hard border, and we know they don't, the last thing they will want is a no-deal Brexit, which would bring that very situation about. This is just one good reason why a deal will be brokered in the end. |
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The North/South cooperation part of the GFA along with the rest is a tool to give a framework for peace. There's actually very little about the end of hostilities in the agreement. There's a section on reconciliation and a section about the decommissioning but that's about it. It's more about;
Plus sections on the rights and security of the people of the North. Ireland is an EU member as well as a sovereign nation. It is only right surely that the EU negotiations should reflect Irelands interests as a member Full text of the agreement BTW - https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peac...0Agreement.pdf |
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Oh, for a bit of interesting fun, I found a nice table discussing how legitimate the EU and the member state governments (plus EEA states) are from a democratic point of view which I thought was quite interesting. The chart also aligns the EU roles with governmental ones from member states.
Fill ya boots here - https://arnoldplaton.files.wordpress...cy1.png?w=1250 |
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I don’t own any boots and will gladly not waste my time with that rubbish from a blog site.
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What he is saying is that a large economic bloc will have more negotiating power against the other large blocs like China and the US. |
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RTE are reporting that a deal has been reached over the border.
---------- Post added at 16:09 ---------- Previous post was at 16:08 ---------- And Buzzfeed are reporting the EU27 will ASSEMBLE! tomorrow. https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/...76117187809280 ---------- Post added at 16:17 ---------- Previous post was at 16:09 ---------- The Times are reporting that the cabinet will meet tomorrow for Brexit reasons. ---------- Post added at 16:18 ---------- Previous post was at 16:17 ---------- And the BBC are reporting that there is a deal: https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/s...75059329814528 Quote:
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