Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

There’s a common trick in the sector which is to grow market share, float on a stock exchange and in all the hype initial investors cash out their shares at a hyper inflated price.

The bread and butter concepts of investing get lost: what is the return? Often, to hope someone else caught up in the hype or another large company comes along with a combined stock/cash offer in a combined company. There’s only so many times this can happen before the customer base has to return profits in the form of dividends.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The debt Netflix has is staggering, jfman, but so are their revenues and growth. I don't see their growth slowing any time soon, but at some point, yes, they have to make money.

Disney's and the other streamers, are going to take at least a few years to get going, but which time I think Netflix will be in profit and who knows, there may even be talk of dividends.

Once Brexit is out of the way, Netflix and Disney are my primary investment targets from 2019/2020 onwards with perhaps a bit of Apple for good measure.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Oh I agree the revenue and growth are staggering, but when these tail off prices will go up and much like everyone else it’ll be about how much the subscriber base will take in terms of price rises.

As for investments I’d snap up property in the post Brexit market collapse.:D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I will choose physical media over digital anyday.

Case in point I wanted to get Forza Horizon with the VIP pace for my nephew and myself.

But the Deluxe Ed (£60) didn't have a Disc.

So I bought 2 Ultimate Ed at £80 each.

I will do the same again.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Yes, Netflix could crash and burn and I recall saying as much a year ago in this very thread, but I'm not so sure now.

For the full year 2018, Netflix is predicted to have 150m customers, currently it's 130m. At the beginning of 2018, they had something like 120m and the beginning of 2017 it was something like 90m.

If they keep growing for a few more years at a rate of 20-30m customers per year and then control their costs at that point, they should be awash with profits by the mid 2020s and will have enough of their own content to offset all of Hollywood leaving their platform, if that happens, as they won't have to pay for all the expensive licensing deals.

If they do crash (a stock market crash won't help here) then simply someone like Apple or Mircosoft will gobble them up.

Just as an aside, how far do you see the property prices falling by? It's something I'm closely watching, as my circumstances might dictate that I need to might need to look out for property deals in the next year or so.

---------- Post added at 12:47 ---------- Previous post was at 12:43 ----------

But as DVD players stop being sold by the shops and physical media in terminal decline, we will have no choice but to go down the streaming route in the future for all entrainment needs.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I don’t think they’ll collapse, and agree with what you say someone else will step in if it ever came to it.

Whoever did step in still has to answer the original question: how, where and when do they turn a profit? You may be right about the mid 2020s, but how much has been invested to get there?

Given all that what’s the chances of plunging tens of billions into the global sports rights markets before then? Zero.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Netflix will have invested an aboslute fortune, but as Reed Hastings has said, they need to become a HBO before HBO becomes a Netflix.

The old Hollywood companies still have an incredible advantage, even at this stage with several decades of tv and films each and all the subsequent rights that go with them, not that they're using that advantage. Netflix has had to build its catalogue from scratch. I reckon they'll have another relatively clear-ish run for the next three years, before Disney and the other Hollywood streamers start to make an impact.

I don't think Netflix will involve itself with sports, but Amazon and possibly Apple, Facebook and the other tech cos, will.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

David Zaslav, the boss of Discovery, gave a interesting interview to Variety magazine recently about how he and John Malone see the future of tv going. The interview is also directly related to the UKTV channels thread as well, as it shows what Discovery's end game is in that regards.

The interview includes a audio podcast, so if you get the chance, have a read and listen hear:

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/dav...st-1203026976/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Thank you, Horizon. I look forward to listening to that interview later today.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I'm not convinced Discovery will be a big player more likely an acquisition for one of the big players.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

You're welcome Old Boy.

It's nothing fantastic, just Discovery's wish to become King of "quality" tv, as they see it. When they say quality, they're talking about all food shows, all home related shows etc and owning them worldwide on their own platforms. With taking full control of all the cooking/home related channels from UKTV, this gives them complete control of all such stuff as far as the UK goes.

They seem to think their combined offering is a viable alternative to Netflix, Disney and quality dramas...

---------- Post added at 17:43 ---------- Previous post was at 17:42 ----------

Agree.

If you listen to the interview, he's talking about being on Amazon's platform and devices. Read between the lines and I reckon he's hoping Amazon will buy them out soon.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Seems advertising will continue both on linear and connected devices and do just fine contrary to what you'd have us believe.
https://www.v-net.tv/2018/11/23/sky-...tv-can-become/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Reality l call it rather then ifs. buts and maybes.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Yes, it will, for now.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

And for the next 50 years plus...