Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You couldn't make this up.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Carlson gets hits to his YouTube, Trumpeters will lap it up and Putin gets closer to a more compliant US President in the White House.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Presumably the Washington Post position is that only America should be allowed to install puppet regimes around the world?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The WP position is that it reported what Putin said - it was a news report, not an editorial comment…

Are you stating that the USA installed the current Ukrainian Government as a puppet regime?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

This is editorial spin masquerading as journalism.

---------- Post added at 12:26 ---------- Previous post was at 12:13 ----------

Are you stating America has never overthrown the legitimate Government of a state to further it’s own geopolitical interests in a region?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Are you saying this is what happened in Ukraine?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You’ll never get him to state it explicitly. I think he knows how distasteful such a statement would be. Pretty much as impolite as opining on Russia’s ‘legitimate security interests’. But I’ve long concluded that this is exactly what he thinks.

Bear in mind that Russia’s propaganda effort has been extensive amongst the Nat movement here in Scotland. It’s no accident that they had a propaganda news agency (called ‘Sputnik’) in Edinburgh, and our former first minister presenting a show on Russia Today, a channel now banned in the UK and across the EU. It’s part of the same campaign that has convinced MAGA republicans that cheering for Putin is somehow patriotic and makes Tucker Carlson think he’s an ace reporter for letting Putin lecture him on (bad) middle school history live on Xitter.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Oh I’ll say that America will have been somewhere in the background pulling the strings of the Maidan revolution. It’s not particularly distasteful, and naive in the extreme to think they wouldn’t be.

I’m not really sure your issue with Russia’s security interests unless your contention is that only America has the right to topple democracies around the world and Russia, China and other interested parties should simply tolerate it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think everyone’s should take issue with Russia’s security interests following Putin’s lecture at Tucker Carlson this week. It’s plain naive even to use the phrase ‘security interests’ and assume everyone uses it in the same way. Security interests within a general acceptance of the world’s international security architecture and legal definition of nation states is one thing, Russia’s self image as eternal and unbounded should be deeply troubling and chilling to anyone who bothers to listen.

Here’s a (lengthy) discussion on what Putin actually thinks about Russia and the world based on that interview, from an actual historian. Well worth the 10-15 minute read.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/putins...=true&r=1tgh1t

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If anything is eternal and unbounded it’s America ability to flexi t’s muscle throughout the world, through almost every year of it’s existence, with it’s own propaganda apparatus in the media and in academia that will always find a way to justify any action, anywhere.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You go right on trying to sell moral equivalence between American foreign policy and Russia’s present ‘Special Military Operation on the territory of Ukraine’*. You’re making my point rather well.

*Much of which it now says always has, in fact, been the territory of Russia, but if those naughty Ukrainians were squatting on the ancient birthright of the Rus I suppose Russia has reason to kidnap their kids, burn Ukrainian language books, rape women into submission and then re-sell vacant property to Muscovites.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Maidan occurred because the then Government turned away from signng articles of agreement with the EU and turned back to Russia and the Federation deal. How America did that would be a master stroke.

If only you knew the history of Ukraine instead of what Russia purports you would have a different opinion and not make claims of US interference.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1707671975

According to Russia Ukraine does not exist, nor ever has.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Of course, the CIA always put out a statement when they topple a democratically elected government. I should have known that.

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America has no moral authority considering what it is arming in Gaza. Something far closer to a genocide than any of the allegations thrown in Russia’a direction.

At least they are getting kids out of the combat zone rather than slaughtering them with sniper fire I guess.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Harsh but fair…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Do please keep it up. You’re exposing yourself superbly well.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Agreed

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I’d say equally the rest of you are doing the same. The fact you are blind to your collective hypocrisy is actually quite alarming.

I’ve been berating the hypocrisy of American foreign policy for years. If that’s a revelation to anyone on the basis of yesterday’s posts then hello, I’m jfman pleased to meet you.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Actually I’m really not bothered what you think about American foreign policy. What I find distasteful is that you’re prepared to play down Russian war crimes and the suffering of Ukrainians - especially non-combatant women and children - just to help you make a rhetorical point about American foreign policy.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

What I find distasteful is America (and it’s allies) playing up the suffering of Ukranians when it is quite happy to expedite human suffering around the world that aligns with it’s own economic or geopolitical interests. It’s quite happy to manufacture lies and propaganda that people - with the best will in the world like yourself - fall for hook, line and sinker. Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. 40 beheaded babies, etc.

If it can’t hold those views consistently, and apply it universally, then it’s just an emotive punchline in a propaganda device.

I’m also firmly of the view that America will let Ukraine down just as it let down the people of Afghanistan.

Similarly objectionable is your efforts to slur a legitimate political movement - Scottish independence - as some kind of Russian funded disruption effort yet your blind spot that the same principles would apply to the UK leaving the EU. Conservative MPs, Labour MPs and Farage have all taken money from RT. Although we are at this point moving some distance from the subject of the thread so I’ll leave it there.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Indeed we are. And as we return to the substance of the thread I repeat my observation that you have made light of the kidnap of Ukrainian children, which is a war crime. Putin and a member of his administration are wanted in The Hague over it. Perhaps you could acknowledge that suggesting it’s not all that bad for the children involved was at least ill considered?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yes and no…

https://www.unicef.org/eca/documents...aines-children

More up to date info (till the end of January)

https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine...dren%20injured.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

In any case, I’m not sure anyone deserves credit for kidnapping children from a combat zone that is only a combat zone because they made it into one by crossing an internationally recognised frontier.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I have absolutely not made 'light' of the 'kidnap' of Ukrainian children. Nor did I suggest it was not 'all bad' for them. I was merely drawing comparison between that and another ongoing conflict where I hear very little about the plight of children.

---------- Post added at 00:37 ---------- Previous post was at 00:31 ----------

A child dying every day in Palestine since October 7th would be something like 130. Against their peers in carrying out alleged genocide one can only note the data.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

One can only note that it seems to someone that it’s who’s doing the child-killing makes criticism applicable…

https://media.tenor.com/qY7WBiRXMZsA...nks-soviet.gif

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Of course he would.

It's also most likely the only way this conflict ends.

There is no indication that Ukraine can push Russia back from its territory, and certainly no indication that it can remove Russia from Crimea.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And then, in a couple of years, he takes some more bordering Oblasts…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ultimately America will let Ukraine down, despite all the hype. The Democrats are probably stalling on doing it because it’s an election year and hoping Trump does their dirty work for them. There’s little ongoing value in continuing to throw good money after bad, the Ukrainian troops aren’t up to the task ahead of them and they aren’t being given resources required even if they were. They’re just fodder at the front with little resource and flawed tactics.

Russia having successfully shifted it’s industries from relying on the West to working with China, India and the global south have managed to keep their war economy on track and stronger now in 2024 than it was in 2022. A picture unlikely to change for the rest of the decade unless the west go down the World War 3 route.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If I were American I'd say it's a good use of my tax dollars, degrading Russia's armed forces and tying them up in Ukraine for the foreseeable future for about 1.5% of the military budget and not one drop of American blood spilt

---------- Post added at 16:37 ---------- Previous post was at 16:37 ----------

And Moldova, Baltic states

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

On that note...

https://wapo.st/3PSCYuQ

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Of course, legitimate criticism of American foreign policy cannot possibly exist. Only enemy propaganda.

America, and it’s allies, would never resort to fabricating stories for the purposes of driving public opinion in their favour, or deploy misinformation onto the population of their enemies.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

This is the crux of it.

After Ukraine’s early successes and Russia’s early embarrassing losses, and the exposure of Russia’s aging military equipment, poorly maintained, poorly equipped etc etc.

The narrative was, keep Ukraine supplied and Russia will burn themselves out.

But Russia haven’t burnt themselves out, they are re-equipping, and have not been pushed back……..at all. Ukraine have failed to make any real inroads in the past 12 months, they’ve been given an astronomical amount of money and have depleted the West’s ordnance stocks.

I’m not saying Russia will win, but Ukraine won’t win either.

To paraphrase Blackadder, Zelenskyy has managed to move his drinks cabinet two inches further East in the last year.

This conflict needs to be concluded around the table, as it is obvious it will not be concluded on the battlefield, and Trump is 100% right.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Thanks to Congress freezing support for Ukraine, Ukraine has not been sufficiently supplied. So the Russians have not burnt themselves out and have actually rebuilt themselves a bit.

I'm struggling to see how just capitulating to Putin will bring peace. What makes you and Trump confident Russia won't come back for another bite of the Ukranian cherry? They have a track record on this.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The thing is - are they getting degraded? Or is Russian military capability actually improving based on increased combat experience and the ramping up of the wartime economy?

I’d be pretending if I claimed to know enough, but I suspect most of the western assumptions to date have been flawed and the calculations on what resource Ukraine needs to bog Russia down have been massively underestimated. This resets the question somewhat - a far greater level of investment is needed into a military with a recent track record of failure, already making its way further down the conscript list of women, older men and even some with disabilities initially exempt.

Short of NATO boots on the ground it’s hard to see how Ukraine can meaningfully gain territory back to the 2021 borders, never mind fantasies over Crimea.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I’m not suggesting capitulation, I’m suggesting a negotiated settlement.

Putin will not live forever, I think it would be unlikely he did anything after this. Call it a win (whatever the settlement) he leaves his legacy.

Do you think it’s better to carry on fighting with neither side looking likely to win?

Negotiated settlements after conflict and acquisition of territory is as old as time.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ultimately a lot of effort into convincing Western populations to take in Ukrainian refugees, treble their gas bills and ship billions in aid to defeat Putin.

It’ll be quite the task for behavioural scientists to nudge them into coping with a negotiated outcome since they have an unprecedented level of emotional involvement in the success of Ukraine.

However tying it in a bow and blaming (in Europe at least) a nameless, faceless “Congress” or just blaming Trump would make it somewhat more palatable than the underlying reality this is what America does routinely - uses local populations as a proxy and disposes of them when it’s no longer politically or economically convenient.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I can't see Ukraine agreeing to a settlement that doesn't restore its 2014 boundaries. Putin's 10 years older than Biden and doesn't look like he's any intention of giving up. And we don't know his successor won't continue what Putin began.

I think it's best to arm Ukraine properly so that Russia withdraws sooner rather than later. Not arming it effectively - the current situation - is resulting in neither side looking likely to win.

World War II taught us that negotiated settlements with aggressors only reward and encourage them to be more aggressive.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well they lived with it for eight years.

Ukraine will do what it has to do. Lack of support could see Ukraine having to agree to a whole lot worse settlement.

Ukraine is free to accept or refuse any offer. However, they are not free to receive unlimited support from the West for unobtainable goals.


we don’t know he will. I don’t think Russia as a people want this war, I think any new leader that ends it will be welcomed.

What more do you suggest? They have been armed and financed very well. You do realise that it is Russia they’re against? It was a very ring rusty Russia that started in 2022, the Russia of 2024 is not the same.

Russia will not be withdrawing from Ukraine. Ukraine can’t do it, and they can’t do it with the current exceptional level of funding. The current level of funding isn’t sustainable.

Ukraine cannot win their objectives without NATO actually engaging, with their weaponary and soldiers……….and that will not happen.

well what has happened, so far, is the best we can do, And it doesn’t seem to be good enough.

Well it’s a bit more complicated than that. Chamberlain did his level best, and should be well remembered for that.

Unfortunately the actions of Nazi Germany and Japan meant that only total surrender would be acceptable. Russia has committed no such atrocities in this campaign. A negotiated peace is in this instance would not be as problematic.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Putin likes nothing more than to wage war. Now if it were his daughters lives on the line instead of the sons of the people he doesn't know then it would be a different story.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia won't concede any land anyway. 2014 is a pipe dream unless Russia is pushed out of those areas.

I also have deep scepticism Russia would abide by any agreement. They would take the time to rearm and invade again down the line. How much can you depend on a peaceful agreement with an aggressor who has already invaded with no material reason, such as a change in leadership, to suspect their motivations have changed?

For now, I think the best approach is to make sure Ukraine is armed and ready to at least repel any further incursion. Any peace talks need to be contingent on Ukraine otherwise being able to continue to hurt Russia if they are going to get any favourable terms in a deal. Putin isn't going to agree anything if he thinks he can continue to take Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Considering Ukraine’s western allies have openly stated the purpose of previous “agreements” was to give Ukraine time to prepare and that they equally had no intention of adhering to them perhaps those in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.

Russia equally has no reason to believe Ukraine, America or anyone else is acting in good faith. Arming itself, and preparing for further instability at it’s borders would be entirely rational. Who knows where the CIA is planning it’s next coup.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Oh, the irony...

Anyhoo, you stated "Arming itself, and preparing for further instability at it’s borders would be entirely rational" - could you point out any instability* in the last 20 years on it's borders that have not been instigated** by Russia?

*nb - democratically elected Governments wishing to join the EU and/or NATO does not, in fact, destabilise Russia's borders***

**nb2 - Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine...

***nb3 - unless you are one of the supporters of the Greater Russia myth that states all the old Comecon countries belong to Russia

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

For starters, the current support for Ukraine is not the best we can do. Republicans need to approve Biden's requested budget and not mix it up with their desire to build a wall on the Mexico border.

Funding Ukraine is a cost-effective way of weakening Russia with the possibility of a more friendly leader coming to power if we don't follow Trump's playbook in rewarding aggressors.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The bottom line here is that Ukraine has internationally recognised borders and Russia has been violating them for 10 years, most recently in an open war of aggression that has flattened cities and resulted in the kidnap of children and the rape and murder of adults. These are war crimes.

Boilerplate hard-left whataboutery has nothing to do with Ukraine’s right under international law to re-take its territory and allies are free to assist in that. While everyone’s busy wringing their hands over what Trump might do, given the chance, or lamenting the amateurish attempts from the current administration to control the conflict, most people seem to be missing the dynamic shift within Europe, particularly in Poland, the Baltics and latterly France (belatedly seeing that its strategic interests lie in military leadership, rather than burnishing its reputation for diplomacy). Arms production is slowly ramping up; the reason Ukraine is firing artillery again this week is largely due to a massive procurement effort by the Czech Republic for example.

As for whether Russia is rearming and getting stronger … you only have to spend 5 minutes looking at reputable sources which monitor what Russia is fielding, and losing, to see that it is fielding, and losing, ever-older equipment. There are burning T-55s out there right now. Yes, they’re conscripting a lot of men, but no, they won’t be well trained and they won’t last long. They are being used to soak up Ukrainian ammunition. Russia can keep the conflict going that way but it can’t advance. Meanwhile in the rear Ukraine is getting better at hitting the things Russia can’t quickly replace, like oil refining capacity and complex military aircraft. They are getting better enough at it that the White House is getting nervous, because the White House is still stuck in a paradigm in which it believes it can manage how ‘hot’ the war is. Eventually, the White House will realise that it is this attempt to control events via the drip-feeding of military aid that has lessened its influence in Kyiv and means they have no chance of persuading the Ukrainians to stop flying drones into Russia.

It’s going slower than anyone wanted - if you train an army for manoeuvre warfare but then deny it the fast jets it needs to cover that sort of operation, things will not go as planned - but Sevastopol has become all but untenable as a naval base, the Russian navy cannot manoeuvre in the western Black Sea, which was the whole reason for invading and controlling Crimea in the first place. It will be a long, slow slog, but Russia simply can’t hold on to what it has taken in Ukraine any more than the USSR could ultimately hold on in Afghanistan.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Were the Afghans not also reliant upon American resources for that war?

Any western appeals to international law ring absolutely hollow at the moment throughout the world given what they are financing and arming in Gaza.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I agree it undermines them. But it doesn't mean they're wrong.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Neither point has any relevance to the application of international law in Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Both are absolutely relevant. There’s no such thing as a selective international law that allows actors to cherry pick the bits they want for an ally while using the same examples elsewhere in the world to condemn a foe. Such hypocrisy threatens the very existence of the entire order since it relies upon nation states to consent to them.

American influence around Russia’s borders has a long history. America wouldn’t tolerate Russian or Chinese weapons systems in Latin America on the basis of them having the consent of the governments of those states.

There’s also nothing “boilerplate hard left” about pointing out such hypocrisy, and white exceptionalism.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

How are you not being hypocritical as well? You don't see to have any politics apart from kneejerk contrarianism to whatever US foreign policy is.

You seem to believe in the right for Palestinian self-determination and are very critical of Israeli actions in Gaza but oppose the right for Ukraine to arm itself against a foreign invasion from Russia. Russia aren't even responding to a terrorist attack.

The US might be hypocritical in support Ukraine and not trying to curtail Israeli actions but you've also found yourself doing the same in the opposition direction as a result.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think the two events aren’t comparable. Despite much hyperbole the Russian SMO appears very controlled and measured compared with the systematic destruction of buildings throughout Gaza, This, alongside the wholesale killing of women and children by indiscriminate bombing of urban areas - including mosques, churches, hospitals and other buildings generally considered protected puts Israel’s actions on an entirely different level.

I’ve no real objection to Ukraine’s right to defend itself, subject to the right to self determination of some regions as negotiated in the Minsk agreements. What’s more objectionable - from where I sit - is America leading them on implying a level of ongoing support that it would never commit to once it was no longer in it’s political or economic interest.

It’s entirely possible the US will force Ukraine to the table to negotiate an agreement worse than could have been achieved in spring 2022, at the cost of tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of Ukrainian lives and millions of Ukrainian refugees that will never return from Europe.

If I’m right, it’ll be interesting to see how Ukraine’s biggest cheerleaders reflect upon that outcome.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

None of that is in dispute.

We’re well into past two years of this conflict. “Slowly” is not an adverb that should really be being used at this stage, two years in.

Russia doesn’t need to advance, you are correct it is not. But the point is neither is Ukraine.

Russia is very capable of holding on to what it has taken.

I don’t recall “ a long slow slog” being part of the narrative 12 months ago.

As usual your post has been very cogent, up until this last sentence.

There is absolutely no indication that Russia cannot hold on to what they have taken, furthermore there is no indication that Ukraine can take back what they have lost.

I have been consistent in my approach to this conflict from very early on, this is not a zero sum game.

Of course if you want to drag it out for a further 8 years, invoking Afghanistan. Would the end result look better than a much earlier negotiated peace?

What will Ukraine lose? Crimea….already lost many years ago without so much as a whimper.

Donbass and other Russian disputed Ukrainian territories. That have been fought over for decades….

Is it worth 8 more years of war? With no guarantee of solution?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Don't delude yourself that a deal with Russia solves anything. It just encourages Russia to re-group, shake off the West's sanctions before undertaking another invasion of Ukraine and potentially additional countries.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Does a deal with Russia solve more or less than perpetual war with Russia? Bear in mind while we pay higher gas bills Ukranians are paying in blood. To borrow a phrase it’s a bit of Sunday afternoon luxury belief that other people should fight a proxy war for us.

Considering the time and effort to get not very much in two years, and a proven ability for the west to just enough support Ukraine that they don’t capitulate the rationale for the “next time” being proposed is significantly weaker.

It’d be possible - although I’d not hold my breath if I were Zelensky - for the US or other allies to use peacetime to upskill Ukranian military personnel in western equipment (like F-16s) to leave Ukraine better equipped for such a future conflict than simply putting ever decreasing quality of conscripts into the meat grinder.

If Russia have further aspirations loosening of sanctions is irrelevant - it’d be unlikely that Russia would realign it’s economy back to partial dependence on the west only for it to have to pivot away again.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And yet while criticising those you perceive as speaking for Ukraine, you have no hesitation in … speaking for Ukraine.

You’ll never understand what’s going on here as long as your perspective is limited to great powers thinking. It isn’t all about the perpetual manoeuvring between East and West. Ukraine is a sovereign nation whose citizens strongly support continuing the war until it regains control over all its internationally recognised territory. The Ukrainians are in no doubt about the risks of trying to appease the neighbour which has already wreaked so much death and destruction on it.

Your inability to see Ukraine’s agency has been fatally undermining your position in this thread right from page 1.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

We will see what happens when America turns off the dollars and second hand equipment whether Ukrainian agency holds more sway than the Central Intelligence Agency.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Again … your tunnel vision is preventing you seeing the broader picture. Even as the USA loses political influence in Kyiv (because of White House ineptitude, or Congressional Republicans being unduly influenced by Trump, or both), the Eastern European states with the most to lose from a resurgent Russia at or near their borders are becoming increasingly hawkish about support for Ukraine. Arguably this represents a schism that the Kremlin would consider a strategic win, as it potentially weakens America’s influence in Europe more broadly. But I think Putin has made a major strategic error, and Finland and Sweden’s accession to Nato is just one particularly visible illustration of that.

Poland and others understand Europe is entering a ‘pre-war’ era. Even France has finally realised that signalling red lines is counterproductive in the face of a dictator who will exploit them and has adopted its own version of Russia’s penchant for strategic ambiguity. In trying to control the conflict the White House has lessened its ability to choke it off later even if it withdraws material support entirely. Even now, Europe is providing about half of what’s going to Ukraine. Without America’s contribution Ukraine will be left with a very long-running conflict, to be sure, but one that Ukraine and its European allies are aware Russia can’t be allowed to win. It’s hard to see what the CIA is likely to be able to do in the face of that.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

They’ve already toppled one legitimate government of Ukraine.

I’d remain sceptical of much of the European support continuing if America definitively pulled the plug. It’s easy to justify if they believe they’re plugging a gap until the end of the impasse in Congress.

If America started throwing its political weight against European donors this would further increase the chances of it drying up. Ultimately, if they want to go ahead and play Russian roulette much of their own defence and security depends on some level on the USA for supplies, intelligence, logistics and leadership. Never mind economic levers short of outright sanctions.

My guess is the dominos would fall quickly. Global Britain, Germany, France and the EU would lead the way.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Your first sentence is a Kremlin narrative and profoundly unserious.

The rest …. The only way America might attempt to definitively pull the plug would be in a Trump presidency, which, leaving aside how likely that really is, is unlikely to indulged in European capitals in 2025 in the way it was in 2017. He is now very much a known quantity. But we have a thread for that.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It’s an entirely serious prospect that US-aligned actors within Ukraine could remove Zelensky. It’s not be particularly hard given the cost to date in dollars and lives to sell an end to the war, reconstruction and the return of refugees to a population.

Then we could see what “Agency” decides to do next.

I don’t agree that the rest of my post requires a Trump win.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The US House of Representatives have passed Bill 8035 ($60.8 billion in Ukraine Aid until September 2024)

Yea’s 310
Nay’s 112
NV 8
Present 1

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1713635538

Now goes to the Senate, where it is expected to pass (it’s been held up in the House for a couple of months), and then goes to President Biden for final authorisation.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It’ll pass the senate, and Biden will sign it in to law, and then his escalation management numpties will work on persuading him not to spend most of it. There are still some people in the Biden White House with a Canute-like belief in their ability to direct history. Meanwhile on this side of the Atlantic, Macron has the bit between les dentes and a conviction that this is the issue he can lead Europe on. The Balts, the Poles, most of the rest of Eastern Europe, France and the UK are ramping up their assistance and Ukraine is getting terrifyingly good at asymmetric attacks deep inside Russia.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

They’ll spend most of it, that’s American jobs after all. Whether it moves the dial on the front line is another question entirely. The odd terrorist attack does not a successful counteroffensive make.

Then we get all the excitement all over again in six months time, when the house can stall until the next President pulls the plug.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think it’ll stabilise the front line. For Ukraine to advance, it needs the equipment commensurate with the rapid manoeuvre warfare its officer corps was trained on in Nato countries during 2023. The US has repeatedly resisted supplying such equipment (principally, F-16s in large numbers).

It is more likely that this war will now take significantly longer than it ought to, and it will end when Ukraine has done intolerable damage in the deep Russian rear - something they are getting very good at. Ironically, American efforts to stage-manage the conflict have directly led to Ukrainian innovations in drone technology that every Nato ally is going to have to learn to deal with PDQ, because the genie is out of the bottle, and very expensive weapons programmes are in danger of being superseded by kit you can buy in Wal Mart.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Although I naturally disagree I will say I admire your blind optimism.

At the start it was supposed to be American tech blowing away Ruskies for fun. Now it’s the plucky Ukrainians with their pea shooters ready to outwit a superpower with some NATO training from officers who have never seen combat without clear air superiority and hoping for F-16s due last winter.

I’d wager that American assistance - financial, intelligence or weapons would far outweigh what Zelensky can gather in his begging bowl from Baltic states happy to spill Ukrainian blood keeping the Russian border in the distance.

I’d not underestimate the American ability to put the genie back in the bottle either if other priorities took over like Israel or Taiwan. :sniper:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yes it will, and probably then some. Interesting to know how long “ought to” was projected to be, and what “significantly longer” is?

Will it? No problem then, it’s all in Ukraines hands then.

Russia should give it up as a bad job then, I’m sure they will.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

With the right equipment, Ukraine could have made significant advances into Russian held areas during 2023. They will get some of that equipment - F16s - later this year. Manoeuvre becomes more viable in 2025.

By no means. Ukraine still requires vast ammunition stocks in order to stabilise the front lines. The willingness of Western governments is crucial. If the logjam in the US congress has a silver lining, it is that Europe has begun to see the US as possibly unreliable. European efforts to speed up weapons manufacture and delivery is ramping up.

Putin is all-in. He can’t give up now, and won’t. Others will force him, once the cost to them of supporting him manifestly outweighs the cost to them of opposing him. That’s how it has always worked in Russia.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

This time next year, Rodney, we'll be millionaires!!!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

At the start, America seemed willing to do exactly that. It was only when the plucky Ukrainians defeated the attempted invasion of the north and the Russian march on Kyiv that the escalation managers got nervous. The current White House wants Russia to fail to conquer Ukraine but it does not want Russia to suffer a crushing defeat. So even with the money Congress has just approved, there are limits on what Biden will do to support Ukraine.

As for assistance from outside the US; assistance from Europe is on a par with, and in some areas outstrips, US support. It isn’t just the Balts, and Macron really does seem to see this now as a chance for France to show its defence/industrial prowess and strategic leadership, rather than its subtle diplomatic skills. One of the reasons the escalation managers in Washington are not going to get what they want in the long run is that they have given Europe and Ukraine reasons not to rely on the US too heavily. The White House’s patently absurd objection to Ukraine bombing Russian oil infrastructure rings hollow because White House policies have undermined their influence over Ukraine to the extent that Ukraine doesn’t feel inclined to listen.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I'm at the front of the queue to argue that Europe needs political, economic and military independence from the US. I don't think arguing over a third of Ukraine populated by ethnic Russians is likely to be the line in the sand for it though. Easier to tell Zelensky to get his pen out, arm the expanded NATO front line and develop from there.

The bogging Putin down argument has lost value for the Americans there's no reason to believe it should have more value this side of the Atlantic.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Strange - Russia bombing the ordure out of Ukrainian civilian targets passes without comment from you, but when Ukraine hits military targets or oil/weapon production sites within Russia, they’re "terrorists"?

You’re not even pretending not to be pro-Putin now, are you?

---------- Post added at 22:55 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

You really are going full Pravda this evening - only 17% of Ukrainians are ethnically Russia, just over a sixth, not a third…

https://www.eurac.edu/en/blogs/mobil...-s-complicated

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No, I merely drew the distinction between co-ordinated military action with a clear goal (progressing through territory) and ad-hoc hits with limited/no strategic value.

Those are more akin to a terrorist action - Hamas on October 7th, Al Qaeda on September 11th, the IRA killing Albert Mountbatten. These have psychological effects however are of limited value in territorial terms.

Hamas have demonstrated more than ever that any ramshackle gang of limited resources could kill hundreds, if not thousands. Nobody believes they'll overthrow the Israeli (or any other) state.

---------- Post added at 22:59 ---------- Previous post was at 22:57 ----------

I didn't say a third of Ukrainian people were ethnic Russians. Would love to know where the 17% live and what rights the Zelensky regime has stripped from them.

Given the accusation of being "pro-Putin" I feel I need to address this by stating I believe global security is better served by Ukraine ceding territories to Russia disputed since the not-implemented Minsk 2. I also think this was achievable in 2022 without the loss of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian conscripts. I also think without American backing that risks World War 3 this is the absolute limit of Ukrainian 'success'.

America's opportunity to go all in has been and gone. All we have now is more dead Ukanians for ever decreasing "gains". I don't think anyone else benefits from Russia getting expertise in target practice, nor their officer class getting expertise in real warfare not the kind that NATO types get on laptops and in control rooms.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You do understand that you get accused of being pro-Putin precisely because of your fondness for terms like this, yes?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don’t think it makes me necessarily pro-Putin to note that Zelensky has banned opposition political parties, media and trade unions.

Given his stance is to fight to the last Ukranian when even he knows America aren’t adequately arming his conscripts on the front line it’s important - in my view - that there’s some kind of checks or balances. At present there’s no mechanism that could be used if public opinion wanted him removed and to pursue another path. The only way to remove him is a coup.

That said, I’ve probably called the Israelis a regime lately, so it’s a matter of conveying disrespect that I hold for him and his puppet government.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If only you conveyed the same disrespect for Putin and his puppet government…

It shows that you are pro-Putin that you never note that Putin has banned opposition political parties and media.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think Putin is likely the puppet master for his government.

Zelensky is America’s puppet in his.

The absence of me saying one thing doesn’t mean you can necessarily infer I think something else. It’s an extremely flawed logic. Whether I have disdain or not doesn’t change that he’s in charge of the dominant player in the region and America/the west aren’t going go change that with a paltry $60bn and more Ukrainian dead. Ukraine can only control what it can control which makes the political void in Kyiv more relevant than that in Moscow.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia is just a big ammunition sponge at the moment. Western stocks of ammunition are depleted and we can’t deliver enough for a push, only enough to stay static.

But the biggest issue, I would argue, is that 3yrs in recruitment is stalled, or stalling. Doesn’t matter how much money or equipment you throw at it, if there’s no soldiers, or less than you optimally need.

JFMan’s observation of Zelenskyy effectively becoming a war time dictator, is valid.

Vitali Klitschko Is not 100% OK with some of Zelenskyy’s decisions of late, he’s a competent respected politician. What avenues does he have if things get worse? A coup d’etat?

https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...eed-that-ride/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Demanded ?

Asking is fine, but demanding ? Not so much.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

‘Demanded’ is a journalist’s interpretation of how it went down, but probably not far from the truth. Ukraine’s argument is that it is fighting Russia now so that Nato doesn’t have to later - if Putin gets out of this feeling he has got one over the Wicked West, within 10 years or so he is likely to try the ‘defending the Russian minority’ schtick he’s used in Georgia and southeastern Ukraine already, in places we already are obliged to defend, i.e. the Baltics. So if Zelensky is making demands, they’re not entirely unreasonable.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The flaw in Ukraine's argument is Putin knows we are obliged to defend them. That makes it a whole new ball game. We wouldn't be sending the scrap metal to the front line and stalling on establishing air superiority.

Those countries are allies. Ukraine are just meat for the grinder in between for the west. Which is why the whole charade is contemptible.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The former KGB man who sent Russian soldiers in debadged uniforms into the Donbas, ordered a nerve agent poisoning on British soil and (at the very least) acted to cover up the use of a Russian air defence battery to bring down an airliner full of Dutch citizens wouldn’t find a way of interfering with the territorial integrity of the Baltic states. Sure he wouldn’t. (Especially in a scenario in which Nato has demonstrated it doesn’t have the stomach for a fight.)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If NATO doesn't have the stomach for a fight in such a scenario that makes bribing Zelensky to sacrifice his population even more contemptible, not less.

A proxy war through Ukraine is equivalent fighting with both hands tied behind your back since the skilled personnel are long gone and the equipment is substandard.

And lost in all of this is where would Ukraine be in a position to withdraw their consent from being a part of this proxy war if there's no mechanism to challenge Zelensky.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The Zelensky regime tightens the noose further in order to drive up conscription numbers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68880085

Can only assume it’s not going too well if they’re after 60 year olds who don’t want to fight for Ukraine anyway.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I suspect the number of people who would self identify as being unwilling to fight for their country is somewhat lower than the number who would actually be unwilling to do so.

However you can certainly see the value of the Ukrainian meat grinder to countries like Poland where less than half identity as willing to fight. A stat also undoubtedly skewed as above.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You clearly have a problem with the Ukrainian's fighting for their country so let me ask you this question: if you were in charge of Ukraine and could do anything, what would you do to end this conflict today?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

With an addendum

"And that would stop a repeat of the same thing happening again, Oblast by Oblast"

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Your question is based upon a false assumption where you have inferred something I have not said, nor implied.

---------- Post added at 18:19 ---------- Previous post was at 18:12 ----------

I’m sorry but the bogey man of perpetual Russian aggression doesn’t warrant sacrificing every Ukrainian man of fighting age in a war it is both losing and being inadequately resourced by its supposed allies.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I have not inferred anything. I ask again, and it is a simple question: what do you think Ukraine should do today to stop what you see as a "meat grinder"?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Sorry Ian that’s a nonsense.

Your own words were:

I absolutely reject this framing of the argument, just as I rejected that every post criticising Israel has to condemn Hamas first.

This framing is no more valid than me claiming you are happy to sacrifice Ukranians for Polish, Latvian, or anyone else’s security. How many Ukranians have to die before you’d countenance Ukraine negotiating a settlement and I ask again what mechanism can this be conveyed by the people if the Zelensky regime will not?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ok, some progress:

So you think Ukraine should negotiate a settlement so what territory do you think they cede to achieve peace (if any)?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No progress. That was a question for you from which you have once again inferred an opinion I hadn’t stated in that post.

Would you be willing to sacrifice them all for Polish security? Til the last Ukranian? Do the conscripts get a choice?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well they haven’t had Crimea for a decade. They, and the West, gave it up with so much as a whimper.

Along with Donetsk and Luhansk, so they are already effectively part of Russia’s hand. What would now be up for negotiation would be the territory Russia has occupied and held since the invasion of 2022.

What territory they cede would be up to them, as part of any negotiation.

---------- Post added at 19:21 ---------- Previous post was at 19:16 ----------

Well as someone of more mature years Hugh, and of an exMilitary background, I can assume that if you had to go to war on the frontline you wouldn’t hesitate, as seen as as all the 25-35yr olds were dead.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Another post where you criticise the current Ukrainian strategy yet are unwilling to declare what you think they should actually do.

Forget what I want, what do you think they should do? Last attempt on my part. If you, yet again, dance around the question and mock the current attempts for Ukraine to defend itself, I can only conclude you have no serious intent to debate this subject.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No, no, no Ian your wilful misinterpretation of my posts doesn't allow you to dictate debate here. The post you quoted doesn't refer to Ukrainian strategy at all - unless you actually think it is "til the last Ukrainian" or sacrificing them for Polish security. If you think millions of dead Ukrainian conscripts is a price worth paying for Polish security that says far more about you than me.

Knowing what know from your keyboard would you be willing to take up arms on Zelensky's front line? Would you encourage your children or grandchildren?

If (or when) Zelensky comes calling for Ukrainian men under 60 in the UK to be sent for slaughter at the hands of the Russian army should we deport them forthwith?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://wapo.st/4d7FDKZ